Special Report

taejoun.kim@kisrating.com

1997 IMF 2000

.

. 2000
.
.

2009 16,481, 8
.

[1]

) .

( : , )

: , KIS-Line

20
21

KIS Credit Monitor 2010.11.8

[1]

2005

2006

2007

( : )

2008

2009

4,216

4,267

4,403

4,286

4,463

5,175

5,175

5,409

5,307

5,331

1,596

1,539

1,449

1,370

1,311

3,330

3,574

3,880

4,165

4,310

835

920

1,006

1,003

1,066

15,152

15,475

16,147

16,131

16,481

2.7%

2.1%

4.3%

-0.1%

2.2%

1997
15,783 1998 1999
. 2002~2004
2005 (2005~2009 CAGR: 2.2%)
1996 .
, 2000~2009 , ,
68%, 29%, 3%
.

.
, 2008 33.4% ,
, ,

. 2009
.

[2]

( : %)

Special Report

60 , 30%
.
M/S .
, 2004 2009 , 30.6%
10%
.

.

.
,

.

[2]

2004

2005

2006

2007

( : %)

2008

2009

29.3%

29.2%

30.2%

31.3%

33.4%

30.6%

7.7%

8.1%

8.2%

7.8%

7.9%

8.3%

CJ

5.6%

5.3%

5.4%

4.9%

4.7%

4.6%

4.3%

4.2%

3.8%

3.7%

4.0%

4.0%

4.4%

4.4%

4.3%

4.1%

3.8%

3.9%

4.4%

4.3%

2.9%

3.4%

2.9%

3.3%

3.7%

3.5%

3.1%

2.9%

2.7%

3.2%

2.4%

2.3%

2.3%

2.4%

2.4%

2.8%

3.1%

3.1%

2.7%

2.7%

2.6%

2.8%

2.1%

1.7%

2.0%

2.1%

2.2%

2.3%

33.1%

33.8%

35.1%

34.7%

33.3%

34.2%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%
:

(90% )

.
1996 2002 4~5% 2002~2004
, 2005 3~4%

22
23

KIS Credit Monitor 2010.11.8

.
2005 , 2006
, /
.

[3]

( : %)

) , , , , , , , , , ,

2008


. 2008 2009 2/4
.

[4] (2005 =100)

: 2005 12 , .

: ,

Special Report

, (2008) /
/ ,
,
.

[5] / (2005 1~2010 1)

[6] ,

( : %)

) , , , , , , , , , ,

()

2005 2005~2007 2008 13

5,900 20.5% , 2009
21.3% .

24
25

KIS Credit Monitor 2010.11.8

[3]

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

253,156

233,217

235,561

234,077

248,769

248,802

108,399

117,672

116,763

112,773

135,929

164,840

361,555

350,889

352,324

346,850

384,698

413,642

11,331

11,840

11,569

11,522

11,928

16,309

( : )

2004

372,886

362,729

363,893

358,372

396,626

429,951

67.9%

64.3%

64.7%

65.3%

62.7%

57.9%

29.1%

32.4%

32.1%

31.5%

34.3%

38.3%

3.0%

3.3%

3.2%

3.2%

3.0%

3.8%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

: (2010),

2000 , , . 2000~2009
1,590(2000) 2,635(2009)(CAGR 5.8%),
8,214 9,585(CAGR 1.7%), 102,547 138,768(CAGR
3.4%) .
, ,

.

[4] , , ,

()()
()()
()()
()
()()

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1,590

1,406

1,410

1,480

1,666

544

548

544

519

497

8,214

8,720

8,974

9,231

8,908

102,547

102,393

101,693

99,019

106,736

2005

2006

2007

1,819

2,020

2,201

2008
2,430

2009
2,635

()()

479

464

453

446

445

()()

8,962

9,382

9,606

9,087

9,585

109,628

119,181

119,365

119,784

138,768

()

,
, ,
.

Special Report

[7] ,

1 1960
10% , 2000 , ,
. , 1
(2008 36.8kg) 2004 (: 118.4kg, : 41.2kg, : 101.1kg)
.

[8] 1

: (2010),

KIS Credit Monitor 2010.11.8

26
27

- ,

,
,
2008
. , 2010 1 (764 )

21.7% .

,
.


, 2008 7 8
. , , , ,
, (), .

[5]

, , , (, , , , )

, , , , (),

.
6 ( 20 ).

.
(,
).

, 3 3 .
1 .
:

, 2009 5~8
60.0% 46.1% 75.0%
.

,

. EU, ,

.

Special Report

/
,

,
. ,
1
.

[9]

M&A

,
M&A ,
. ,
,
.
, 2004 4 B&F 148( )
, 2005 3

2007 4 , 2008 7 /
.

/()
, 5
, CJ
,
() .

KIS Credit Monitor 2010.11.8

28
29

2009 6 1 4
,
OEM
.

. ,
.
, 2005
209, 910 1 654(), 4 7,289(
), 980(), 1,110 5~50
() . ,
1 1( 20) 2 .
1990 , 2000
2010 8 24 . 1995
2010 , ,
3 12 2015
30 .
CJ 1996 5 , 10
, 1997 10 , ,
, 2010 8 14 . ,
, , ,
.

3 , ,

. 2010 8 ,
.
2010 9 8 (8 12 ) 266 40.0%
, 2010 9 8 12 160
24.0% . , 40% 9 10
2003 , 1995
.

Special Report

[10]

1) Kansas Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat 2

2) Chicago Yellow Corn 2
3) Chicago 1
USDA AMS and ERS(Average monthly closing price for the nearby futures),

36 , 2010
, ,
.

-EU FTA
-EU FTA 2007 5 , 8 (2007 5~2009 3) /
(
09.7.13) (
09.10.15), 2010 10 6
.
-EU FTA
10 (ASG) , 10
5 ASG .
.

KIS Credit Monitor 2010.11.8

30
31

[6]

(HS )

(%)

()

()

(04-06)

(04-06)

EU FTA

(3)

40

19,878

15+ASG1)

(3)

40

163,864

15+ASG

(2)
() (2)
(, ,
) (2)

72

105

22.5

148

6,410

22.5

16

15
10+ASG
5

(1)

18

() (1)

25

58,141

74,756

10

25

51,917

168,415

18

6,836

8,760

18

1,165

3,106

18/30

193

4,969

(, &

, )(3)
()(1)
(,
)(2)
(2)
(1)

30

2,654

3,054

27/30

72

723

(3)

176

144

1,749

(4)

176

965

5,764

89

0.6

200

(2)

36

18,648

28,282

10

(4)

36

4,562

43,127

15+TRQ(4,560)

(2)_,

36

0.2

11

(2)

89

345

1,957

102

2,145

36

452

2,952

10+TRQ(450)

49.5

8,584

42,897

10+TRQ(3,350)

(5)

(4)

EU

(1)
(2)
(7)

+TRQ2)
( 1,000)

10
10+TRQ(350)

(4)

36

163

3,994

10-15

9,469

18,726

(5)

18

(5)

20

15,380

44,906

(3)

30

9,884

10

(1)

243

13

1,019

+TRQ(50)

10
10(, 13)

1) ASG(, Agricultural Safeguard) : WTO

. , 200
.
2) TRQ(, Tariff Rate Quota): , .
: EU FTA() ()

-EU FTA ,
22.5%, 25% , EU
77.4% , 72.7% .
, (ASG) -EU FTA
EU

Special Report

.
-EU FTA 15 1,776
, , , 279,
828, 218 .
, 2009 , ,
40,948, 54,734, 20,229 FTA
.

[7] )

1~5

( : )

6~10

11~15

280

58

279

501

828

328

943

1,214

218

105

231

319

323

40

277

651

()

32

32

32

32

42

18

43

63

()

43

23

52

54

10

23

1,776

604

1,865

2,857

) .

: EU FTA() ()

, EU FTA
4,200 . EU FTA 1
800 EU (40) , -EU FTA
-EU FTA
2,993 6,512 , - FTA
7,298 1 1,842
.
EU FTA

, EU MSY(Marketted-pigs per Sow per Year:

1 ,
) 24.46, 24.70 ,
22 15.0
-EU FTA
.

KIS Credit Monitor 2010.11.8

32
33

, 1

,
. ,
, ()
.
,
, /
/
.

.