CPM/PERT

S. Ajit

Project

A project is a series of activities directed to the accomplishment of a desired objective.

History
Developed in the 1950s
CPM was developed by Du Pont and the emphasis was on the trade-off between the cost of the project and its overall completion time (e.g. for certain activities it may be possible to decrease their completion times by spending more money - how does this affect the overall completion time of the project?) PERT was developed by the US Navy for the planning and control of the Polaris missile program and the emphasis was on completing the program in the shortest possible time. In addition PERT had the ability to cope with uncertain activity completion times (e.g. for a particular activity the most likely completion time is 4 weeks but it could be anywhere between 3 weeks and 8 weeks).

CPM - Critical Path Method

Definition: In CPM activities are shown as a network of precedence relationships using activity-on-node network construction Single estimate of activity time Deterministic activity times

USED IN : Production management - for the jobs of repetitive in nature where the activity time estimates can be predicted with considerable certainty due to the existence of past experience.

PERT Project Evaluation & Review Techniques

Definition: In PERT activities are shown as a network of precedence relationships using activity-on-arrow network construction Multiple time estimates Probabilistic activity times

USED IN : Project management - for non-repetitive jobs (research and development work), where the time and cost estimates tend to be quite uncertain. This technique uses probabilistic time estimates.

The Project Network

Use of nodes and arrows

Arrows An arrow leads from tail to head directionally Indicate ACTIVITY, a time consuming effort that is required to perform a part of the work.

Nodes A node is represented by a circle - Indicate EVENT, a point in time where one or more activities start and/or finish.

The Project Network

An activity is a time-consuming effort that is required to complete part of a project. Shown as an arrow on the diagram An event is denoted by a circle and defines the end of one activity and beginning of the next. An event may be a decision point.
Activity Event

Activity Slack
Each event has two important times associated with it :
-

Earliest time , Te , which is a calendar time when an event can

occur when all the predecessor events completed at the earliest possible times

Latest time , TL , which is the latest time the event can occur with
out delaying the subsequent events and completion of project. Difference between the latest time and the earliest time of an event is the slack time for that event

Positive slack : Slack is the amount of time an event can be

delayed without delaying the project completion

Critical Path

Is that the sequence of activities and events where there is no slack i.e.. Zero slack

Longest path through a network

minimum project completion time

Questions Answered by CPM & PERT

Completion date?
On Schedule?

Within Budget?
Critical Activities?

How can the project be finished early at the least cost?

Example
1. Construct the CPM Network using the details below and determine the critical path
Activity Immediate Predecessor Duration

A
B C D

A A A

1
4 2 2

E
F G H

D
D E F,G

3
3 2 1

I
J

C,H
B

3
2

CPM NETWORK

A 1 2

CPM NETWORK

4 D A 1 2 B C 7

CPM NETWORK
5

E
4 D A 1 2 B C 7 F 6

CPM NETWORK
5

E G
4 D A 1 2 B C 7 F 6

CPM NETWORK
5

E G
4 D A 1 2 B C 7 F 6

CPM NETWORK
5

E G
4 D A 1 2 B C 7 F 6

H
I 8

CPM NETWORK
5

E G
4 D A 1 2 B J 3 C 7 F 6

H
I 8

CPM NETWORK with duration of each activity

E(3) 4 D(2) A(1) 1 2 B(4) J(2) 3 C(2) 7 F(3) 6 H(1) I(3) 8 5

G(2)

To find the Critical Path

5 E(3)

LFT EST

G(2)
4
0 0

F(3) 6

D(2) A(1) 2 B(4)

H(1)
I(3) 7 8

C(2)

J(2)
3

To find the Critical Path

5 E(3)

LFT EST

G(2)
4
0 0 0 1

F(3) 6

D(2)

H(1)
I(3) 7 8

A(1)

2 B(4)

C(2)

J(2)
3

To find the Critical Path

0 3

LFT EST

5 E(3)

G(2)
4 F(3) 6

0 0

A(1)

0 1

D(2)

H(1)
I(3) 7 8

2 B(4)

C(2)

J(2)
3

To find the Critical Path

0 3

5 E(3) 4

0 6

LFT EST

G(2)
F(3) 6

0 0

A(1)

0 1

D(2)

H(1)
I(3) 7 8

2 B(4)

C(2)

J(2)
3

To find the Critical Path

0 3

5 E(3) 4

0 6

LFT EST

G(2)
F(3)
0 8

0 0

A(1)

0 1

D(2)

H(1)
I(3) 7 8

2 B(4)

C(2)

J(2)
3

To find the Critical Path

0 3

5 E(3) 4

0 6

LFT EST

G(2)
F(3)
0 8

0 0

A(1)

0 1

D(2)

H(1)

0 9

I(3)

2 B(4)

C(2)

J(2)
3

To find the Critical Path

0 3

5 E(3) 4

0 6

LFT EST

G(2)
F(3)
0 8

0 0

A(1)

0 1

D(2)

H(1)
7

0 9

I(3)

2 B(4)

C(2)

0 5

J(2)

To find the Critical Path

0 3

5 E(3) 4

0 6

LFT EST

G(2)
F(3)
0 8

0 0

A(1)

0 1

D(2)

H(1)

0 9

0 12

I(3)

2 B(4)

C(2)

0 5

J(2)

To find the Critical Path

0 3

5 E(3) 4

0 6

LFT EST

G(2)
F(3)
0 8

0 0

A(1)

0 1

D(2)

H(1)

0 9

12 12

I(3)

2 B(4)

C(2)

0 5

J(2)

To find the Critical Path

0 3

5 E(3) 4

0 6

LFT EST

G(2)
F(3)
0 8

0 0

A(1)

0 1

D(2)

H(1)

9 9

12 12

I(3)

2 B(4)

C(2)

0 5

J(2)

To find the Critical Path

0 3

5 E(3) 4

0 6

LFT EST

G(2)
F(3)
8 8

0 0

A(1)

0 1

D(2)

H(1)

9 9

12 12

I(3)

2 B(4)

C(2)

0 5

J(2)

To find the Critical Path

0 3

5 E(3) 4

6 6

LFT EST

G(2)
F(3)
8 8

0 0

A(1)

0 1

D(2)

H(1)

9 9

12 12

I(3)

2 B(4)

C(2)

0 5

J(2)

To find the Critical Path

3 3

5 E(3) 4

6 6

LFT EST

G(2)
F(3)
8 8

0 0

A(1)

0 1

D(2)

H(1)

9 9

12 12

I(3)

2 B(4)

C(2)

0 5

J(2)

To find the Critical Path

3 3

5 E(3) 4

6 6

LFT EST

G(2)
F(3)
8 8

0 0

A(1)

1 1

D(2)

H(1)

9 9

12 12

I(3)

2 B(4)

C(2)

0 5

J(2)

To find the Critical Path

3 3

5 E(3) 4

6 6

LFT EST

G(2)
F(3)
8 8

0 0

A(1)

1 1

D(2)

H(1)

9 9

12 12

I(3)

2 B(4)

C(2)

10 5

J(2)

Critical Path
5 E(3) 4
0 0 1 1 6 6

3 3

G(2)
F(3)
8 8

D(2)

H(1)

A(1)

9 9

12 12

I(3)

2 B(4)

C(2)

10 5

J(2)

Critical Path
1-2-4567-8

Critical Path
ABEGH-I

CPM - Example
Critical Path
1-2-45678

Critical Path
ABEGH-I

Project Completion Time = 12 months

PERT
Probabilistic Three estimates

to (a) optimistic time tp (b) pessimistic time

tl (m) most likely time

Mean = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6 Variance 2 = [(tp to)/6]2

PERT Example:

Construct Project network, find the expected duration and variance for each activity & find the critical path and expected project completion time Activity Predecessor a m b

A
B C D

6
1 1 1

7
2 4 2

8
9 7 3

E
F G H

A,B
C C E,F

1
1 2 4

2
5 2 4

9
9 8 4

I
J K

E,F
D,H G,I

4
2 2

4
5 2

10
14 8

PERT Example:
Mean = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6
Activity Predece ssor A B C D E F G H I J K A A,B C C E,F E,F D,H G,I a 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2

Variance 2 = [(tp to)/6]2

b 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8 te 7

PERT Example:
Mean = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6
Activity Predece ssor A B C D E F G H I J K A A,B C C E,F E,F D,H G,I a 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2

Variance 2 = [(tp to)/6]2

b 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8 te 7 3

PERT Example:
Mean = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6
Activity Predecessor A B C D E F G H I J K A A,B C C E,F E,F D,H G,I a 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2

Variance 2 = [(tp to)/6]2

b 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8 te 7 3 4 2 3 5 3 4 5 6 3 2

PERT Example:
Mean = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6
Activity Predecessor A B C D E F G H I J K A A,B C C E,F E,F D,H G,I a 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2

Variance 2 = [(tp to)/6]2

b 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8 te 7 3 4 2 3 5 3 4 5 6 3 2 0.11

PERT Example:
Mean = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6
Activity Predecessor A B C D E F G H I J K A A,B C C E,F E,F D,H G,I a 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2

Variance 2 = [(tp to)/6]2

b 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8 te 7 3 4 2 3 5 3 4 5 6 3 2 0.11 1.78

PERT Example:
Mean = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6
Activity Predecessor A B C D E F G H I J K A A,B C C E,F E,F D,H G,I a 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2

Variance 2 = [(tp to)/6]2

b 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8 te 7 3 4 2 3 5 3 4 5 6 3 2 0.11 1.78 1.00 0.11 1.78 1.78 1.00 0 1.00 4.00 1.00

To find the Critical Path

LFT EST

6 6

D(2) 2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3

E(3)
F(5) G(3) H(4) I(5) J(6) K(3)

To find the Critical Path

LFT EST

6 6

D(2)
2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3

E(3)
F(5) G(3) H(4) I(5) J(6) K(3)

To find the Critical Path

LFT EST

6 6

D(2)
2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 E(3) 5

6 F(5) G(3) H(4) I(5) J(6) K(3)

To find the Critical Path

LFT EST

6 6

D(2)
2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 F(5) E(3) 5

G(3) H(4) I(5) J(6) K(3)

To find the Critical Path

LFT EST

6 6

D(2)
2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 F(5) E(3) 5

H(4) I(5) J(6) 7 K(3)

G(3)

To find the Critical Path

LFT EST

6 6

D(2)
2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 F(5) E(3) 5 H(4)

I(5) J(6) 7 K(3)

G(3)

To find the Critical Path

LFT EST

6 6

D(2)
2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 F(5) I(5) E(3) 5 H(4)

G(3)
7

J(6) K(3)

To find the Critical Path

LFT EST

6 6

D(2)
2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 F(5) I(5) E(3) 5 H(4)

6 J(6) 8

G(3)
7 K(3)

To find the Critical Path

LFT EST

6 6

D(2)
2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 F(5) E(3) 5 I(5) H(4)

6 J(6) 8 K(3)

G(3)
7

To find the Critical Path

7 7 14 14

LFT EST

D(2)
7 7

2
0 0

6 H(4) J(6)
20 20

A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4

5

E(3) 5 F(5)

10 10

8 K(3)
15 17

I(5) 7

G(3)

7 7

14 14

D(2)
7 7

2
0 0

A(7)
B(3) 1 C(4) 4
5

H(4)
E(3) 5
10 10

J(6)

20 20

F(5)
G(3)

I(5)
7

K(3)
15 17

Critical path 1 2 3 5 6 8 Critical path A Dummy E H J

PERT - Example

What is the probability of completing the project within 25 weeks? Activities Variance A Dummy E H J 0.11 0 1.78 0 4

2 = 5.89 = (2) = 2.43 Ts (Scheduled time) = 25 weeks Z = (Ts Te) / = (25 20) / 2.43 From z table (normal table) z(2.06) = 97.68 %

= 2.06

PERT - Example

What is the probability of completing the project within 15 weeks?

Activities
A Dummy E H J

Variance
0.11 0 1.78 0 4

2 = 5.89 = (2) = 2.43 Ts (Scheduled time) = 15 weeks Z = (Ts Te) / = (15 20) / 2.43 = -2.06 From z table (normal table) z(-2.06) = 100 - 97.68 % = 2.02 %

Limitations of CPM/PERT

Clearly defined, independent and stable activities Specified precedence relationships Over emphasis on critical paths