CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU

MUC TIEU CHNG II

Hieu khai niem, cac loai d bao va qui trnh d bao. Biet c cac phng phap d bao thong dung. ng dung c cac phng phap d bao.

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1. Khai niem, cac loai d bao 1.1. Khai niem D bao la khoa hoc va nghe thuat tien oan trc cac hien tng trong tng lai da vao : Day so lieu cua cac thi ky qua kh, phan tch cac nhan to anh hng en ket qua d bao va kinh nghiem thc te ( GS.TS. ng Th Thanh Phng (2007), Qun tr sn xut v dch v, Nxb. thng k ).

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1.2.Cac loai d bao 1.2.1. Can c vao thi gian d bao D bao dai han ( Thi gian d bao tren 3 nam) Lap d an san xuat san pham,ap dung cong nghe mi. D bao trung han( Thi gian d bao t 3 thang-3 nam) Lap ke hoach ban hang, san xuat va ngan sach. D bao ngan han ( Thi gian d bao di 3 thang). Lap ke hoach mua hang,ieu o san xuat va nhan lc.

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU 1.2.2. Can c vao lnh vc d bao D bao kinh te D bao toc o tang trng GDP, lam phat, dan so D bao cong nghe. D bao s thay oi cong nghe va ky thuat cua nganh. D bao nhu cau D bao nhu cau tieu thu, nguyen lieu va nhan lc

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU 2. Cac phng phap d bao nh tnh 2.1. Lay y kien cua ban ieu hanh Lay y kien cua cac nha quan tr trong lnh vc san xuat, marketing, ky thuat, tai chnh, nhan se d bao. u iem : Nhanh, re, sat vi tnh hnh x nghiep. Nhc iem : Khong hoan toan khach quan.

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2.2. Lay y kien cua nhan vien ban hang cac khu vc Lay y kien nhan vien ban hang cac khu vc e d bao nhu cau san pham, dch vu. u iem : re, sat vi nhu cau khach hang. Nhc iem : nay sinh xu hng lac quan hoac bi quan.

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2.3. Lay y kien cua khach hang Lay y kien khach hang bang phong van, bang cau hoi e d bao nhu cau va th hieu cua khach hang. u iem : khach quan v lay y kien cua khach hang. Nhc iem : ton kem chi ph va thi gian thc hien.

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU 2.4. Phng phap Delphi Lay y kien cua cac chuyen gia trong va ngoai doanh nghiep e d bao theo qui trnh sau : Tuyen chon chuyen gia d bao. Soan san bang cau hoi ve lnh vc d bao. a bang cau hoi cho cac chuyen gia yeu cau tra li. Tap hp y kien tra li cua cac chuyen gia. a cho cac chuyen gia tham khao bang tong hp. Lap lai bc 3-5 en khi cac y kien gan thong nhat.

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU 3. Cac phng phap nh lng 3.1. Qui trnh d bao theo phng phap nh lng Xac nh muc tieu d bao La chon san pham can d bao Xac nh thi gian d bao Thu thap thong tin. La chon va phe chuan mo hnh d bao. Tien hanh d bao. Ap dung ket qua d bao.

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3.2. Phng phap d bao da vao ch so phat trien Cong thc : F t+1 = At x Trong o : Ft+1 : So d bao thi ky t+1. At : So thc te thi ky t. : Ch so phat trien bnh quan gia cac thi ky.

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3.2. Phng phap bnh quan n gian Nguyen tac : lay so trung bnh cua tat ca cac thi ky trong qua kh lam so d bao thi ky sau. Cong thc :
n

F t +1 =

At

t 1

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU

Trong o : F t+1 : So d bao thi ky t+1 At : So thc te thi ky t. n : So quan sat (so lng so lieu thc te )

Ap dung khi : So lieu thc te trong qua kh bien ong khong ln qua cac thi ky.

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU

Doanh nghiep An Phc co san lng tieu thu trong 6 thang nh sau :

Thang

San lng 12500 12520 12530 12550 12530 12540 tieu thu (sp )

D bao san lng tieu thu thang 8 theo phng phap bnh quan n gian.

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3.3. Phng phap bnh quan di ong Nguyen tac : lay so trung bnh cua K thi ky lien ke trc o lam so d bao thi ky sau. Cong thc :
n tnk

At
k

Ft 1

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Trong o : F t+1 : So d bao thi ky t+1. At : So thc te thi ky t. K : So thi ky tnh bnh quan di ong.

Ap dung khi : So lieu thc te trong qua kh bien ong khong ln qua cac thi ky.

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Doanh nghiep Toan My co san lng tieu thu trong 7 thang nh sau :

Thang San lng tieu thu (tn )

180 181 184

182 181 183 185

D bao san lng tieu thu thang 10 theo phng phap : Bnh quan di ong cua 3 thi ky lien tiep. Bnh quan di ong cua 4 thi ky lien tiep.

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3.4. Phng phap bnh quan di ong co trong so Nguyen tac : lay so trung bnh co he so cua K thi ky lien ke trc o lam so d bao thi ky sau. Cong thc :
n

Ft 1

tnk n

Atxqt

qt
nk

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Trong o : F t+1 : So d bao thi ky t+1. At : So thc te thi ky t. qt : He so thi ky t.

Ap dung khi : So lieu thc te trong qua kh bien ong khong ln qua cac thi ky.

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU Doanh nghiep Toan My co san lng tieu thu trong 7 thang nh sau :

Thang 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 San lng tieu 180 181 184 182 181 183 185 thu (Tan ) D bao san lng tieu thu thang 10 theo phng phap : Bnh quan di ong co he so cua 3 thi ky lien tiep (He so la 3,2,1). Bnh quan di ong co he so cua 4 thi ky lien tiep (He so la 4, 3,2,1).

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU 3.5. Phng phap san bang so mu : Cong thc : F t+1 = At + (1 )Ft Trong o : F t+1 : So d bao thi ky t +1. Ft : So d bao thi ky t. At : So thc te cua thi ky t. : He so san bang so mu (1 > > 0) Ap dung cho moi trng hp cua day so, tr trng hp xu hng hay thi vu.

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Doanh nghiep Thang Li co san lng tieu thu trong 5 thang nh sau :

Thang San lng tieu thu (Chiec )

1 12450

4 12456

5 12458

12454 12460

D bao san lng tieu thu thang 6 theo phng phap : San bang so mu vi F1 = 12440, = 0,2. San bang so mu vi F1 = 12440, = 0,4. Tnh MAD

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3.6. Phng phap san bang so mu co nh hng Cong thc : Bc 1: Ft+1 = At + (1 ) Ft Bc 2: Tt+1 = (Ft+1 - Ft ) + (1- )Tt Bc 3: Ft+1 (h) = Ft+1 + Tt+1 Trong o : F t : So d bao thi ky t. F t+1 : So d bao thi ky t +1. At : So thc te cua thi ky t.

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Tt : ai lng nh hng thi ky t. Tt+1 : ai lng nh hng thi ky t+1. : He so san bang so mu bac 1 (1 > > 0) : He so san bang so mu bac 2 (1 > > 0) Ft+1 (h) : So d bao co nh hng thi ky t+1. Ap dung cho moi trng hp cua day so, tr trng hp xu hng hay thi vu.

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU

Doanh nghiep Thang Li co san lng tieu thu trong 5 thang nh sau :
Thang San lng tieu thu (Chiec ) 1 2 3 4 5

12450 12454 12460 12456 12458

D bao san lng tieu thu thang 6 theo phng phap : San bang so mu co nh hng vi F1 = 12440, T1= 0, = 0,2, = 0,4.

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU 3.7. Mo hnh xu hng tuyen tnh Ap dung : khi bieu dien so lieu thc te cua cac thi ky qua kh len o th co dang ng thang. y = ax + b
Trong o : y : So d bao cua thi ky x. x : Th t cua cac thi ky. n : So lng quan sat ( So lng

so lieu)

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU

Ap dung phng phap bnh quan be nhat : x x= n xy n x y a= x2 n ( x )2

b=yax

y y= n

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU Doanh nghiep Phu Phong co san lng tieu thu trong 7 thang nh sau :

Thang

7 170

10

San lng 150 160 180 ( Tan)

180 200 210

D bao theo mo hnh xu hng tuyen tnh. Tnh MAD va nhan xet ket qua d bao.

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU 3.8. Phng phap he so thi vu Ap dung : cho cac mat hang tieu thu bien oi theo mua nh vat t nong nghiep, quat may, nc uong

Bc 1 : D bao Ft theo phng phap thong thng. Bc 2 : Tnh he so thi vu St cua cac thi ky. He so thi vu (St) thi ky t Nhu cau bnh quan thi ky t = Nhu cau bnh quan 1 thi ky

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Bc 3 : Tnh ket qua d bao he so thi vu (Ft x St).

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Cong ty phan bon Bnh ien co san lng tieu thu qua 4 quy nam 2003, 2004, 2005 nh sau : San lng tieu thu ( Tan) 2003 2004 2005 1 245 255 270 2 215 220 216 3 250 265 280 4 216 225 224 D bao san lng tieu thu co he so thi vu cac quy 2006. Quy

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3.9. Phng phap hoi qui nhan qua 3.9.1. D bao theo 1 nguyen nhan y = ax +b Trong o : y : So d bao (bien phu thuoc). x : Yeu to anh hng ket qua d bao ( bien oc lap). n : So lng quan sat (so lng so lieu)

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x x= n xy n x y a= x2 n ( x )2 y=

y n

b=ya x

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU anh gia ham hoi qui nhan qua Sai lech tieu chuan

y2 - b y a xy S xy =

n -2 n xy x y [ny2 ( y )2 ] [nx 2 ( x )2 ]

He so tng quan Rxy =

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU Cong ty kinh doanh nc uong Vina co chi ph quang cao va doanh thu trong 6 thang nh sau :

Thang Doanh thu (Tr.) Chi ph quang cao ( Tr.)

1 300 30

2 3 450 610 40 60

4 720 70

5 6 820 950 80 90

D bao doanh thu thang 7, biet doanh nghiep chi 100 trieu cho quang cao trong thang 7.

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU

X ly bang Excel Vao Tools/Data analyis/ Regresion/Ok. Input Y range : Quet khoi so lieu cot Y. Input X range : Quet khoi so lieu cot X. Output options chon New worksheet ply hay Output range.

Intercept = b, X variable 1 = a Neu | t -Stat | > 1,96 : Ham d bao co y ngha. Multiple R 1 : tng quan gia X va Y cang chat.

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3.9.2. D bao theo nhieu nguyen nhan Y = A1X1 + A2X2+ + AnXn + B Trong o : Y : So d bao (bien phu thuoc). Xi : Yeu to anh hng ket qua d bao ( bien oc lap). B : Tung o goc. Ai : o doc phng trnh theo bien Xi.

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Cong ty kinh doanh nc uong Vina co chi ph quang cao va doanh thu trong 6 thang nh sau : Thang Doanh thu(Tr.) Nhan vien ban hang Chi ph quang cao(Tr.)

1 300 20 30

2 450 25 40

3 610 40 60

4 720 50 70

5 6 820 950 60 70 80 90

Xay dng ham d bao cho doanh nghiep bang Excel.

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU

X ly bang Excel Vao Tools/Data analyis/ Regresion/Ok. Input Y range : Quet khoi cot Y . Input X range : Quet khoi ca 2 cot X. Output options : Chon New worksheet ply hay Output range.

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU 4. Kiem tra ket qua d bao 4.1. o lech tuyet oi trung bnh (Mean absolute deviation) Cong thc | At Ft | MAD = n At : So thc te thi ky t. Ft : So d bao thi ky t. n : So quan sat MAD cang nho ket qua d bao cang chnh xac.

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU 4.2. Tn hieu d bao (Running Sum of the Forecast Error) Cong thc ( At Ft ) RSFE = MAD At : So thc te thi ky t. Ft : So d bao thi ky t. MAD : o lech tuyet oi trung bnh. Khi -4 < RSFE < + 4, ket qua d bao chap nhan c.

CHNG II - D BAO NHU CAU 4.3. Ty le o lech tuyet oi trung bnh ( The mean absolute percent deviation ) | At Ft | MAPD =
At

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4.4. Sai so tch luy ( Cumulative Error) E = ( At- Ft) 4.5. Sai so tch luy trung bnh( Average Error) ( At - Ft )

E =
n

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4.6. Sai so trung bnh bnh phng (Mean squared Error) ( At - Ft )2 MSE = n-1

Ti liu tham kho

1. TS. Trng on Th ch bin (2004), Qun tr sn xut v tc nghip, Nxb. lao ng- x hi. 2. TS. ng Minh Trang (2003), Qun tr sn xut v tc nghip, Nxb. thng k. 3. TS. H Tin Dng (2007), Qun tr sn xut v iu hnh, NXB. Thng k. 4. GS.TS. ng Th Thanh Phng (2007), Qun tr sn xut v dch v, Nxb. thng k.