KInh t v m

Trng i hc ngoi thng

Khoa kinh t quc t
TS Hong Xun Bnh

Bi 1: Khi qut v Kinh t hc V m
I. S ra i v pht trin ca kinh t hc
V m:
II. i tng, v phng php nghin cu:
1. i tng:
Y, g, u, inflation, budget, BP,
2. Phng php nghin cu:
- Tru tng ho, cn bng tng qut (cn
bng ng thi all market (Walras), ton
hc
III. H thng kinh t V m:
1. u vo:
+ Ngoi sinh:
+Ni sinh:
2. Hp en: AS+AD
*Tng cu (AD)
Tng cung: (AS)
*Nhn t nh hng: , P, Y, E..
* Nhn t nh hng: P,CFSX, Y*
Y*: sn lng tim nng
Full employment: ton dng nhn cng:
Thng tnh ton theo nm cc ch
tiu sau:
Y, u, inflation, I, B, BP

3. u ra
IV. Mc tiu ca kinh t hc v m:
*Khi qut: n nh, tng trng, cng bng XH
*C th: sn lng, vic lm, n nh gi, lm
pht, KTN (XNK), phn phi cng bng (m
bo thu nhp)
*Cng c: CSTK, CSTT,CS thu nhp, CS
KTN
Bi 2: Tng sn phm quc dn & ph-
ng php xc nh
I. Tng sn phm quc ni (GDP-Gross
domestic products)
Gi tr th trng
Hng ho cui cng: k b bn li trong
thi k SX ng thi, bn trn th trng
Hng ho trung gian:nguyn liu cho SX
1. Khi nim:
2.C s :
Kinh t ng gin n: Households
+firms
Gi nh: bn ht, thanh ton ht, h mua
ht tin
H gia nh

Hng SX

CF ca hng
Thu nhp h gia nh
Input ca SX
H,ho,dv cui cng
Doanh thu ca hng
Chi tiu cho h.ho dv cui cng
Vng lun chuyn GDP trong nn
kinh t
Th trng hng ha v
dch v
Th trng cc yu t
sn xut
Cc hng
kinh doanh
H gia nh
u vo SX
Lao ng, t
ai, vn, trnh
qun l
Bn HH v DV
cui cng
Mua HH v DV
cui cng

Tin lng, tin thu
v li nhun
CPSX (= GDP)
Thu nhp ca h
gia nh (= GDP)
Doanh thu
(= GDP)
Chi tiu
(= GDP)
+Vng bn trong: khp kn ca cc yu
t vt cht mang tnh vt th
+Vng bn ngoi: di chuyn ca tin
+ 3 cch xc nh GDP (vng ngoi); Chi
tiu, chi ph, gi tr gia tng
3. Phng php xc nh:
3.1.Phng php chi tiu:
GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
*Trong :

C (Consumption): chi tiu ca cc h gia
inh
I(Investment): chi tiu ca cc hng
G (Government Expenditure): chi tiu mua
hng ho v dch v ca CP
X (Export): xut khu
M (Import): nhp khu
NX = X M: xut khu rng (Net Export).

*Ch : Khng tnh vo GDP cc khon:
3.2.Phng php thu nhp:
H gia nh:
Hng SX:
Chnh ph:
GDP = w + r + i + Pr + D +Ti
Ti sao khng tnh thu trc thu?
W: tin cng, r tin thu TSC, i: thu vn,
Pr li nhun, D: khu hao, Ti: thu gin thu
3. Phng php gi tr gia tng:
GTGT = Tng DT - Tng CF NVL
GDP = GTGT cc ngnh
=> GDP = VAT. 1/thu sut
GTGT
II.Tng sn phm quc dn (GNP:
Gross national products)
1. Khi nim:
2. Phng php xc nh:
GNP = GDP + Tn
Tn: thu nhp rng TS t nc ngoi = VNNN
-NNVN
C 3 trng hp:

+ GNP > GDP (T
n
>0):
+ GNP < GDP (T
n
<0):
+ GNP = GDP (T
n
=0):

3. GNP thc t v GNP danh
ngha

GNP danh ngha (nominal GNP GNP
n
)
1
n
t t
n i i
i
GNP P Q
=
=

Trong :
P
t
i
: Gi c ca cc hng ha v dch v
k nghin cu
Q
t
i
: S lng ca cc hng ha v dch v
k nghin cu
GNP thc t (real GNP GNP
r
)

0
1
n
t
r i i
i
GNP P Q
=
=

Trong :
P
0
i
: Gi ca cc hng ha v dch v k
gc
Q
t-1
i
: S lng cc hng ha v dch v k
nghin cu
Ta cng c khi nim GDP danh ngha
(GDP
n
) v GDP thc t (GDP
r
).

Ch s iu chnh GDP hay ch s
gim pht GDP, k hiu D (Deflator)

GDP deflator = (GDPn/GDPr)x100
Tn
C
I
G
NX
GNP
D
NNP
Ti
NI
(Y)
Td-TR
Yd
III. Cc ch s kinh t khc:
NNP= GNP-D ; Y=NI=NNP-Ti=GNP-D-Te
Yd = NI - (Td-TR) = (C+S)
D-khu hao TSC
NNP-Tng SP quc
dn rng
NI-thu nhp quoc
dn
Yd-thu nhp kh
dng
TR (transfer)- tr cp
Td: thu trc thu
4. Phc li kinh t rng NEW (Net Economic
Welfare)
GDP, GNP b st hng ha, dch v t
cung t cp, khng a ra th trng v
khng bo co; hot ng kinh t phi php
hoc hp php nhng khng c bo co
nhm trn thu, nhim mi trng..
khng vo GNP,
NEW = GNP + V1 -V2
V1:
+ Gi tr ca thi gian ngh ngi
+ Gi tr hng ha dch v t cung t cp
+ Thu nhp t kinh t ngm
V2: l thit hi v mi trng gy nh h-
ng khng tt n sc khe con ngi:
nhim ngun nc, ngun khng kh, suy
thoi ti nguyn, ting n, ch tc giao
thng
NEW-phc li kinh t tt hn so vi GNPn
but s liu xc nh NEW l rt kh cc
nh phn tch kinh t vn phi dng GDP
v GNP.
Personal and marital life of J.M Keynes
Born at 6 Harvey Road, Cambridge, John Maynard
Keynes was the son of John Neville Keynes, an
economics lecturer at Cambridge University, and
Florence Ada Brown, a successful author and a social
reformist. His younger brother Geoffrey Keynes (1887
1982) was a surgeon and bibliophile and his younger
sister Margaret (18901974) married the Nobel-prize-
winning physiologist Archibald Hill.Keynes was very
tall at 1.98 m (6 ft 6 in). In 1918, Keynes met Lydia
Lopokova, a well-known Russian ballerina, and they
married in 1925. By most accounts, the marriage was a
happy one. Before meeting Lopokova, Keynes's love
interests had been men, including a relationship with
the artist Duncan Grant and with the writer Lytton
Strachey. For medical reasons, Keynes and Lopokova
were unable to have children, though both his siblings
had children of note.
Bi 3: tng cu & chnh sch ti kho
The Keynesian Theory of Income Determination: the
theory that will be presented hereafter was developed by
the Cambridge economist John Maynard Keynes in the
wake of the 1920s Great Depression. He argued that the
cause of a low level of income (GDP) in the economy was
given by the lack of AD.
John Maynard Keynes (right) and Harry Dexter White at the Bretton
Woods Confer..
I. Tng chi tiu d kin v tng cu
Nhng gi nh:
-P,w khng i
-Nn kinh t cn nhiu ngun lc cha s
dng ht. AD quyt nh mc sn lng cn
bng.
-Khng xt n nh hng ca th trng tin
t i vi th trng hng ha.
-ng nht sn lng vi thu nhp v k hiu
l Y.
Tng chi tiu d kin phn nh mc chi
tiu d kin ti mi mc thu nhp vi gi
nh mc gi cho trc.
1. Tng chi tiu d kin APE (Aggregate Planned
Expenditure)
Trong nn kinh t ng gin n c 2
tc nhn gy ra cu:
*H gia nh: C = f
1
(Y)
-Cc hng kinh doanh: Gy ra cu mt l-
ng thng qua hnh vi u t ca mnh.
Ta cng c:
I = f
2
(Y)
APE = C + I = f
1
(Y) + f
2
(Y)
1.1. Hm tiu dng
*Khi nim:
*Cc nhn t nh hng:
-Thu nhp
-Ca ci
-Nhng yu t tm l, XH, tp qun sinh
hot
Khng c thu nhp c phi tiu dng?

Tiu dng t nh, k hiu Autonomous
Consumption)
Nh vy Y= 0, C= f1(0) = C y l hng s
v ngi ta c th thng k c mi quc
gia.

Khng c thu nhp ngi ta vn phi tiu dng
, but Y tng ln =>khng tiu dng ton b Y
m c xu hng gi li mt phn chnh l
hnh vi tit kim.
MPC (Marginal Propensity to Consume)
xu hng tiu dng cn bin:
(0 < MPC < 1)

Nhn t tc ng n MPC
Y MPC C Y f C . ) (
1
+ = =
Y
C
MPC
A
A
=
Hnh v:
C
0
Y
MPC
C = C + MPC.Yd
Vi cch hiu tit kim l phn cn li
sau khi tiu dng, chng ta c:
Y MPS C S
Y MPC C Y MPC C Y S
C Y S
.
). 1 ( .
+ =
+ = =
=
MPS (Marginal Propensity to Save


MPC + MPS = 1.
Xu hng tiu dng trung bnh- tng hay
gim?
y cn phn bit xu hng tiu dng
cn bin (MPC) v xu hng tit kim cn bin
(MPS) vi xu hng tiu dng trung bnh
v xu hng tit kim trung bnh.
Ta cng c APC + APS = 1
d
C
APC
Y
=
d
S
APS
Y
=
1.2. Hm u t
u t l mt cu thnh th hai ca APE.
N c hai vai tr trong kinh t v m.
u t l mt khon ln v thay i ca
u t s dn n s thay i ln ca
APE, v APE tc ng ti sn lng v vic
lm.
u t to ra tch ly vn.
*Nhn t nh hng:
-Mc cu v sn phm do u t mi s to
ra
- Chi ph u t (i)
- K vng ca cc nh u t (E)
Chng ta gi nh u t l khng i vi
bt k sn lng trong nm c th thay i
nh th no. Khon u t gi l u t
nh

I I =
. APE C I C I MPCY = + = + +
Khi P, w c nh th trng h.ha v dch v
cn bng ngn hn, khi AD or APE ng
bng sn lng thc t sn xut ra trong nn
kinh t:
.
Y APE
Y C I MPCY
=
= + +
) (
1
1
0
I C
MPC
Y +

=
Sn lng cn bng l:
2. Tng chi tiu d kin & sn lng cn bng
trong nn kinh t ng c s tham gia ca
CP
Nn kinh t c 3 tc nhn gy ra
cu
d
Y MPC C C . + =
Thu nhp ca dn c khng phi l ton b Y
m ch cn l thu nhp kh dng Y
d
:
Y
d
= Y - T; T = TA - TR (gi l thu
rng)
Thu rng l khon thu thc thu ca chnh
ph sau khi loi tr cc khon tr cp ca
chnh ph cho cng chng.
-Cc hng kinh doanh gy ra cu mt lng l I:
I I =
-Chnh ph gy ra cu mt lng khon chi tiu
G

+Chnh ph nh thu t nh:
T T =
.( ) APE C I G C I G MPC Y T = + + = + + +
0
.( )
1
( )
1 1
Y APE
Y C I G MPC Y T
MPC
Y C I G T
MPC MPC
=
= + + +
= + +

MPC
MPC
m
t

=
1
S nhn thu, ta c:
T m G I C m Y
t
+ + + = ) (
0
+Trng hp chnh ph nh thu theo
thu nhp , T = t.Y (t l thu
sut), chi tiu ca h gia nh, u t v
chi tiu CP l:
Y t MPC C T Y MPC C C ) 1 ( ) ( + = + =
I I =
G G =
(1 ) APE C I G C I G MPC t Y = + + = + + +
0
(1 )
1
( )
1 (1 )
Y APE
Y C I G MPC t Y
Y C I G
MPC t
=
= + + +
= + +

Cn bng ca nn kinh t
l:
) 1 ( 1
1
t MPC
m

=
'
S nhn chi tiu nn kinh
t ng c chnh ph, ta
c:
MPC
m
t MPC
m

= <

=
'
1
1
) 1 ( 1
1
Kh nng khuych i chi tiu ca nn kinh
t trng hp thu no tt hn?
+ Trng hp chnh ph va nh thu
t nh v va nh thu theo thu
nhp
T T t Y = +
( ) (1 ) C C MPC Y T C MPC T MPC t Y = + = +
I I =
G G =
(1 ) APE C I G C I G MPC T MPC t Y = + + = + + +
0
(1 )
1 1
( )
1 (1 ) 1 (1 )
Y APE
Y C I G MPC T MPC t Y
Y C I G T
MPC t MPC t
=
= + + +
= + +

Cn bng ca nn kinh t
l:
3. APE v sn lng cn bng trong nn
kinh t m c chnh ph

Gi s chnh ph nh thu theo thu nhp: T
= t.Y

Nn kinh t c 4 tc nhn gy ra
cu:
I I =
G G =
-Chi tiu ca tc nhn nc ngoi; khon XK
rng:
NX = X - M
Lng xut khu X nhn chung c quyt
nh t u nm do khng ph thuc vo
thu nhp trong nc.
X X =
C=C +MPC.(Y-T) = C + MPC.(1-t)Y
Nhu cu M c th l NVL sn xut, hay tiu
dng ca cc h gia nh. C hai trng hp
ny, nhp khu u c th tng khi thu
nhp v sn lng trong nc tng.

Ta c: M = MPM.Y

MPM (Marginal Propensity to Import). Xu
hng nhp khu cn bin: cho bit khi Y tng
ln 1 n v, cng dn trong nc tng chi
cho hng nhp khu thm bao nhiu n v.
| |
(1 )
APE C I G X M
APE C I G X MPC t MPM Y
= + + +
= + + + +
| |
0
(1 )
1
( )
1 (1 )
Y APE
Y C I G X MPC t MPM Y
Y C I G X
MPC t MPM
=
= + + + +
= + + +
+
Cn bng t c l:
MPM t MPC
m
+
=
' '
) 1 ( 1
1
s nhn chi tiu trong
nn kinh t m (open-
economy multiplier).
S nhn chi tiu trong nn kinh t m c kh nng
khuych i ?????? hn trong nn kinh t ng.

*M hnh giao im Keynes
0
Y
E
APE<Y
APE >Y
Y1 Y0 Y2
APE= Y
APE
APE
45
o

II.Chnh sch ti kho
1. Khi nim
2. Cc loi chnh sch ti kho
2.1. Chnh sch ti kho m rng (lng)
expansionary fiscal policy
2.2. Chnh sch ti kho thu hp (cht)
contractionary fiscal policy
3. Chnh sch ti kha v vn thm
ht NS
Gi B l hiu s gia thu v chi ngn sch,
ta c:
B = T - G
*Khi nim ngn sch nh nc (State Budget)
+ B = 0:
+ B > 0:
+ B < 0:

- Thm ht ngn sch thc t:

*Phn loi thm ht ngn sch
-Thm ht ngn sch chu k:

-Thm ht ngn sch c cu: L thm ht
tnh ton c khi gi nh nn kinh t t
sn lng tim nng.
Ta c: B
tt
= B
ck
+ B
cc
=>B
cc
= B
tt
- B
ck


4. CSTK cng chiu v ngc chiu:
4.1. Chnh sch ti kha cng chiu
4.2. Chnh sch ti kha ngc chiu
5. Bin php gim thm ht NS:
-Tng thu gim chi
-Vay n trong dn: cng tri, tri phiu
CP
-Vay n nc ngoi,
-In tin , s dng qu d tr ngoi t
BI 4: TNG CUNG V M HNH TNG CU
TNG CUNG
I. Tng cung (AS)
1.Quan im c in
P, w linh hot
Nn kinh t lun trng thi ton dng
nhn cng (khng c tht nghip khng
t nguyn). Sn lng lun mc Y
*


AS
ADo
AD1
Y
*

2. Quan im ca Keynes
Nn kinh t trong ngn hn
P v W khng thay i
Lun c tnh trng tht nghip, sn lng
c th tng m khng cn tng mc gi
chung
ng AS nm ngang ti mc gi Po
SA
S
ADo
AD1
P
P
Y
0
3. ng tng cung thc t

*Ngn hn: P, w, costs bin ng rt t
=>TC n nh => P tng => TR
tng=>khuyn khch cc hng gia tng sn
lng =>AS ngn hn c xu hng dc ln v t-
ng i thoi m t mi quan h thun
chiu gia gi v sn lng.

*Di hn: P, w, costs thay i=>TC tng=>
khng th thu li t mc tng cu cao
hn, Y tr li mc cn bng di hn l sn l-
ng tim nng. ng AS gn nh thng
ng ti Y
*
.

SAS
LAS
P
Y
*
Y
0
SAS
LAS
P
Y
*
Y
0
II. M hnh AD -AS
AD
III. Qu trnh t iu chnh ca nn
kinh t

S dng m hnh AD-AS phn tch
cc c sc cu v sc cung:

*C sc cu lm tng cu suy gim=>
AD dch chuyn sang tri

*Cc c sc cung lm AS dch chuyn
sang tri
Bi 5: Tin t v chnh sch tin t
I. Tin t
1. Khi nim, qu trnh hnh thnh v pht
trin cc hnh thi tin t
a. Khi nim:
b. Qu trnh hnh thnh v pht trin cc
hnh thi tin t
Qu trnh pht trin lu di t nhng th nh:
v c, v s, gia sc, ng, st, vng, bc,
kim cng v n tin giy ngy nay
Pht trin cc hnh thi ca tin t nh sau:
Hng i hng => Hng ha lm vt trung
gian (tin nguyn thu) => Tin giy, tin
sc, th tn dng ngn hng
2. Chc nng ca tin t
a. Phng tin thanh ton
b. D tr gi tr
c. n v hch ton
d. Chc nng tin t th gii
3. Phn loi tin t
*Cn c mc c chp nhn thanh ton
(hay kh nng thanh khon - L: Liquidity),
tin c chia lm cc loi sau:
M
0
= Tin mt.
M
1
= Tin mt + tin sc
M
2
= M
1
+ tin gi c k hn.
II. Ngn hng thng mi v kh nng to ra
tin ca ngn hng thng mi.
1. Ngn hng thng mi
*Khi nim
*S ra i ca ngn hng thng mi
*Mt s c im: khch hng, mc
ch
2. Kh nng to tin ca ngn hng thng
mi

Kh nng to ra tin ca NHTM l kh
nng to ra thm phng tin thanh ton cho
nn kinh t thng qua nghip v ca
NHTM (phng tin thanh ton gm c tin
mt v tin sc).
b. Kh nng to tin ca ngn hng thng
mi.
a. Ngun gc hot ng to ra tin ca
ngn hng thng mi.
D tr thc t, k hiu l r
a
.

r
a
= r
rr
+ r
er

r
rr
: (required reserve rate)

r
er
: (excessive reserve rate)
NHTM Tin gi D tr Cho vay
NH
1
1 1.ra (1-ra)
NH
2
(1-ra) (1-ra).ra (1-ra)
2
NH
3
(1-ra)
2
(1-ra)
2
.ra (1-ra)
3
... ... ... ...
NH
(n+1)
(1-ra)
n
(1-ra)
n
.ra (1-ra)
n+1


Vi 0 < r
a
< 1 th =>
(t.)
10
1
1
0 1
1 = =

=
a a
r r
D
III. Ngn hng trung ng (NHTW) v kh
nng iu tit lng cung tin ca NHTW
1. Chc nng ca NHTW (Ngn hng Nh n-
c)
NHTW l ngn hng duy nht ca mt
quc gia thc hin 2 chc nng sau:
*Ngn hng ca cc ngn hng thng mi:
+ NHTW l ni gi cc ti khon v cc qu
d tr ca NHTM.
+ NHTW l ngi cho vay cui cng ca cc
ngn hng thng mi.

*Ngn hng ca chnh ph
+ NHTW lu gi cc ti khon, ti sn, cc
khon cho vay v i vay cp chnh ph.
+ NHTW gip chnh ph hoch nh v
thc thi chnh sch tin t, ng thi h tr
chnh sch ti kha khi cn thit, in tin v
pht hnh tin.
2. Kh nng iu tit lng Ms ca NHTW
a. Xc nh lng cung tin (MS: Money
Supply)
*Khi nim:
Lng cung tin l tng khi lng phng tin
thanh ton bng tin mt v tin sc hin
c trong nn kinh t.
* Cch xc nh:
H
0
, (tin c s hay tin mnh-Basic
Money, High Powered Money), H
0
< M
0
. L-
ng tin ny s c phn phi nh sau:
+ Cc tc nhn trong nn kinh t s gi li
mt phn chi tiu dn, k hiu l U.
+ Phn cn li c gi ti cc ngn hng, k
hiu l R.

R
r
D
a
=
1
Tin c s (H
0
)
U R
U D
Mc cung tin MS
Ta c: H
0
= U + R v MS = U + D
Mc cung tin ln hn nhiu so vi lng tin c s
nh hot ng to ra tin ca cc NHTM(MS >
H
0
).
H
0
v t l d tr thc t r
a
nhng cha bit
MS v rt c th khon tin gi c th b
r r khi h thng ngn hng nh chng
ta phn tch trong phn trc. Tuy nhin,
nh vo cc s liu thng k m NHTW c
th bit c t l tin mt so vi tin gi,
k hiu l s
) (
D
U
s =
R U
D U
H
MS
+
+
=
0
Thay u = S.D v R = r
a
.D vo cng
thc
0
0
1
1
. .
.
H
r s
s
MS
r s
s
D r D s
D D s
H
MS
a
a a

+
+
=
+
+
=
+
+
=
a
M
r s
s
m
+
+
=
1
S nhn tin
MS = m
M
. H
0

*Nhn xt:
-ra gim=> m
M
.????? ; MS ????
- H
0
tng=> m
M
.????? =>MS
????
-s tng=>
=> m
M
???? =>MS ????
( ) (1 ) 1 1
1
a a a
M
a a a
s r r r s
m
s r s r s r
+ + +
= = = +
+ + +
s ph thuc.???
b. Cng c iu tit lng cung tin
Khi nim:
Thc hin: Tng cung
tin????
Gim cung
tin..????
*Nghip v th trng m (Open Market
Operation: OMO):
*Quy nh t l d tr bt buc (Required
reserve ratio: r
b
) - r
a
= r
rr
+ r
er
Quy nh li sut chit khu (Discount
rate):
IV. Th trng tin t
1. Cu tin (MD: Money
Demand)
a.Khi nim:
Cu tin l tng khi lng cc phng tin
thanh ton (tin mt v tin sc) m cc tc
nhn trong nn kinh t cn phc v
cho nhng giao dch ca h tng ng vi
mi mc li sut cn cc yu t kinh t khc
cho trc.
b.ng c:
ng c giao dch
ng c d phng
ng c u c
c. Cc nhn t nh hng: ( l thuyt a
thch thanh khon ca Keynes
* Mc gi chung P
n
r
n
r
MD
P
MD MD const
MD
P
MD MD const

= =

= =

MD
n
(nominal Money Demand)..?
MD
r
(real Money Demand)?
*Li sut:
*Sn lng (hay thu nhp)
*L thuyt u thch thanh khon ca
Keynes
(The liquidity preference theory):
Cu tin ph thucvo thu nhp v
ph thuc .vo li sut
MD = kY - hi
Trong , k v h l h s nhy cm ca cu
tin i vi sn lng v li sut.
Y tng=> MD tng v ngc li
i tng => MD v ngc li
h
kY
0
kY
0
h
kY
1
i
M

0
MD1
MD0
ng vi mi mc sn lng s c mt ng
cu tin
V d: MD
0
= kY
0
-hi; MD
1
= kY
1
hi
Nhn xt:
+ i thay i,,=>lng cu tin s di chuyn
trn ng MD, cc yt khc khng i.
+ Y thay i, ng MD shift right or left. Mc
dch chuyn ph thuc vo h s k.
+ dc ca ng MD ph thuc vo h s
nhy cm ca cu tin i vi li sut (h).

1 kY
i MD
h h
=
2. Cung tin (Money supply)
* Nhn t nh hng n cung tin

-Mc gi chung P
0
1
H
r s
s
MS
a
n

+
+
=
P
MS
MS
n
r
=
-Mong mun ca NHTW. i thay i nhng
MS c th constant nu NHTW cha mun
thay i MS
3. Cn bng trn th trng tin t
* Khi nim:
Ti sao E (MS= MD) l v tr cn bng
ca th trng tin t?

i
0
M
MDo
MSo
Eo
io
VI.Lm pht (Inflation):
1.Khi nim v thc o lm pht:
Lm pht (inflation):

Gim pht (deflation).
2. Thc o lm pht:
Cng thc tnh:
Gp:price growth
rate
1
1
100%
t t
p
t
P P
g
P

=
P
t-1
: mc gi chung ca k trc
P
t
: mc gi chung ca k nghin cu
Theo l thuyt mc gi chung (P) c
tnh bng gi tr bnh qun gia quyn
ca gi hng ho dch v trong nn kinh
t.
n
n n
Q Q Q
Q P Q P Q P
P
+ + +
+ + +
=
...
...
2 1
2 2 1 1
+ Ch s gim pht GDP (D: Deflator)
1
0
1
100% 100%
n
t t
i i
n i
n
t
r
i i
i
P Q
GDP
D
GDP
P Q
=
=
= =

S khc nhau gia GDPd v CPI..????

1
1
100%
t t
p
t
D D
g
D

=
*Tnh P theo mi loi hng ho kh khn, do
c th tnh lm pht theo 2 ch s:
+Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI-Consumer Price
Index):phn nh s bin ng gi ca mt
"gi" hng ho v dch v tiu biu cho c
cu tiu dng x hi.
0
1
0 0
1
k
t
i i
i
k
i i
i
P Q
CPI
P Q
=
=
=

Cng thc
:
1
k
p
i i
i
CPI I d
=
=

or
P
0
i: Gi k gc hng i; P
1
i: Gi k nghin cu ca
hng i
Q
0i
: Lng k gc ca hng i; I
i
p
:

Ch s gi ca tng
loi hng, nhm hng trong gi
d
i
: T trng mc tiu dng tng loi hng, nhm
hng trong gi; phn nh c cu tiu dng ca XH

Mt hng Chs gi (I
2005/2004
) T trng (d)
A 1,2 30%
B 1,4 25%
C 0,9 15%
E 1,5 30%
CPI2005=1,2x30%+1,4x25%+0,9x15%+1,5x30%=1,29
5
1
1
100%
t t
p
t
CPI CPI
g
CPI

=
CPIt-1: k trc
CPIt:k nghin cu
Hn ch ca vic s dng CPI:.
+ Ch s gi sn xut (Producer Price Index-
PPI)
phn nh s bin ng gi c ca u vo,
thc cht l bin ng gi c chi ph sn
xut.

Trng s s dng tnh ton PPI l doanh
thu rng ca hng ho.(= TR tr i cc
khon gim tr doanh thu nh: chit khu
thng mi, gim gi v doanh thu hng b
tr li. Ch s ny t c s dng (ch c
M).
2. Phn loi lm pht
Tnh theo mc ca t l lm pht ngi
ta chia lm pht thnh 3 loi: Lm pht va
phi, lm pht phi m v siu lm pht.
Lm pht va phi (Moderate Inflation):
Khi nim, Mc :
Tc hi:
*Lm pht phi m (Galloping Inflation):

*Siu lm pht (Hyper Inflation):

Weimar c nhng nm 1920s, 1922-
12/1923 ch s gi tng t 1 ln 10triu.
+Cn c theo tnh cht lm pht:
*Lm pht d kin:
+Lm pht khng d kin:
3. Tc hi ca lm pht:
* Nu P cc loi hng ho tng vi tc
u nhau th hu nh khng nh hng
n nn kinh t do gi c tng i ca
cc hng ha khng thay i.
*Lm pht thng xy ra theo hai hng:
+ Tc tng gi ca h.ho, d.v khng
u,
+ Tc tng P v tng Q cng khng
ng u.

*Lm pht gy ra nhng tc hi chnh:
+Phn phi li thu nhp v ca ci mt
cc ngu nhin gia cc c nhn, tp
on...
+Lm gim tnh hiu qu kinh t do
hu qu tiu cc m lm pht gy ra.
+Bin dng c cu SX v vic lm=>DN
ph sn or chuyn hng kinh doanh
4. Cc l thuyt v lm pht
* Lm pht do cu ko (Demand pull
Inflation)
AD1
AD0
P1
P0
0 Y
Y*
P AS
*Lm pht do chi ph y (Cost push
Inflation)
P
0
Y*
Y
Y0
AS0
AS1
AD
P0
P1
Y1
*Lm pht (Inertial Inflation)
Khi nn kinh t kh n nh, cc tc
nhn trong nn kinh t cho rng s c
lm pht t l tng t v iu chnh li
sut danh ngha, tin lng danh ngha,
gi c trong cc hp ng kinh t, cc
khon chi tiu ngn schtheo t l lm
pht cc nm trc .
*Lm pht v tin t; khi th trng tin t
cn bng

hi kY MD MS
P
MS
r r
n
= = =
+Nu lng (MS
n
) tng ln th gi c (P)
cng s tng ln vi t l tng ng, =>lm
pht v t l lm pht bng t l tng tin
danh ngha.
The quantity theory of money
M.V=P.Y
M: lng cung tin trong nn kt
V:tc lu thng tin t
P: mc gi chung cho nn kinh t
Y: sn lng ca nn kinh t
-Gi nh V, Y k i=>%thay i M=%P
* Lm pht v li sut
+Li sut t.t = Li sut danh ngha -T l
lm pht
r = i - H
+Li sut danh ngha (i) l chi ph c hi
ca vic gi tin
+ Gi thuyt ca Irving Fisher H tng 1%
=>i tng 1% v r t thay i v mc m
c ngi cho vay v ngi i vay u c
th chp nhn c. Nu khc i s to ra
mc d cu hoc d cung v y li sut
ny v mc n nh.
+H cao phi c b p li bng i cao
hn tng ng duy tr r cn bng.
+Nc no c i cao thng H cao, v ngc li,
hay thng qua i ngi ta c th nh gi H
+Nu H thc t > H d kin..?
+Nu H thc t< H d kin..?
5. Cc bin php khc phc lm pht

+Gim mnh tc tng cung tin,
kim sot c hiu qu vic tng lng
danh ngha
+Ct gim chi tiu ngn sch
y l bin php to c sc cu, v khi
MS gim => i tng=>Ygim=>C,I,G gim
=>AD gim=>Ygim=> gy ra mt mc
suy thoi v tht nghip nht nh.
+ Trng hp lm pht va, mun kim ch
lm pht=> p dng nhng chnh sch ni
trn nhng mc thch hp.
6. Mi quan h gia lm pht v tht
nghip:
*Tht nghip tng=> lm pht gim v
ngc li tht nghip gim th lm pht
tng.
*Nguyn nhn dn ti mi quan h ng-
c chiu gia lm pht v tht nghip
*ng Phillips
Bi 6: Tng trng kinh t
I. Khi nim v o lng tng trng kinh t
*Khi nim


*Phn bit gia tng trng kinh t v pht
trin kinh t
II.o lng tng trng kinh t:
*o bng % thay i GDP thc t
% 100
1
1

t
t t
t
Y
Y Y
g
+gt l tc tng trng kinh t, tnh theo
GDPr loi b nh hng ca P,
% 100
1
1

t
t t
pct
y
y y
g
*o bng GDP u ngi: loi b nh hng
ca tc tng dn s
*Tc tng trng kinh t trung bnh
Tc tng trng trung bnh ca thi k t n
thi k l g (v d g = 0.03, 0.08, v.v.), ta c
GDP thc t Y1 ca thi k c tnh theo
GDP thc t Y0 ca thi k theo cng thc
sau:
Y1= (1+g).Yo
Y2= (1+g).Y1=(1+g)
2
.Yo
Yn = (1+g)
n
.Yo=> g =?
Nu tc tng dn s l x% th cn phi thm
bao nhiu nm.???



*Quy tc 70:
Da vo cch tnh trn ta c quy tc tnh
nhm thi gian nn kinh t c GDP
tng gp i theo cng thc sau:

Tng trng bnh qun 7%

Sau 70/7% nm GDP tng gp i ngha l
sau 10 nm.

II. Cc yu t quyt inh tng trng kinh
t
1.Vn nhn lc ( Human capital)
2. Tch lu t bn (capital accumulation)
3. Ti nguyn thin nhin (Natural resource)
4. Tin b cng ngh (Technological
progress)
III.C s l thuyt ca tng trng kinh
t
1. L thuyt c in ca Adam Smith v
Malthus
t ai ng vai tr quan trng i vi
tng trng kinh t
+Adam Smith:
+Malthus:
2. L thuyt tng trng trng phi
Keynes
u t lm tng vic lm=> sn lng v
thu nhp tng=> ch trng khuyn khch
nh nc tng u t tng tng cu,
thc y tng trng.
Y
K
ICOR
A
A
=
Y
I
ICOR
A
=
ICOR
s
Y
Y
=
A
ICOR (Incremental Capital-Output Ratio)S
Coi S=I th
c
M hnh Harrod- Domar cho thy vai
tr ca tch lu t bn i vi tng trng
kinh t
ICOR
s
g =
) (
Y
S
s =
*Nu ICOR khng i th g tng cng h
s t l tit kim
*Nhn xt: Hn ch ca m hnh???
3. L thuyt tn c in v tng trng
M hnh tng trng tiu biu Solow
3.1. Gii thiu: 2/1956 v 11-1956 ca
hai tc gi Solow v Swan
*Ti sao gi l tn c in ?
3.2. Kt lun t m hnh
+Vai tr ca tit kim
+Tch lu t bn vi tng trng ngn hn
+Yu t quyt nh tng trng di hn.
+Gi thuyt hi t (Convergence
Hypothesis)



4. Chnh sch thc y tng trng
4.1. Khuyn khch tit kim v u t trong
nc
4.2. Chnh sch thu ht u t nc ngoi
4.3. Chnh sch v ngun vn nhn
lc
4.4. Nghin cu trin khai cng ngh
mi
4.7. Chnh sch kim sot tc tng
dn s

4.8. Chnh sch m ca kinh t, m
rng quan h hp tc vi nc ngoi.

The
end.
4.5. Bo h quyn pht minh sng ch,
quyn s hu ti sn
4.6. m bo s n nh chnh tr, nht
qun trong cc chnh sch kinh t x hi