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1992

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1995

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(12,158,577.3)

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1999

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22.1%

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2000

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1.1%

5.4%

56.0%

2001

9,853,132.7

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2002

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2003

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2004

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2005

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2006

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2007

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2008

(66,967,670.2)

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2010

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2011

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2011

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CORP_cycle

MIN_cycle
ILOAN_cycle
LRATE_cycle
M2_cycle
USD_cycle

RES_cycle

-1
-0.006
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-0.29
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-0.23
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Frankel, Saravelos
10


. (Frankel, J. A. and
Saravelos, G, 2010)
1, 2, 3

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.
GDP_cycle= -0.43*MIN_cycle + 0.53*ILOAN_cycle (-2) 0.38*LRATE_cycle (-3 )
+1.3*M2_cycle (-1) +0.61*TOP20_cycle (-1) + 0.76*CORP_cycle (-2) 1.4*RES_cycle (-3)
R =0.94, DW=1.00


94% .
93%
.
GDP_cycle= 0.45*ILOAN_cycle (-2) 0.40*LRATE_cycle (-3)+0.86*M2_cycle (-1)
+0.53*TOP20_cycle (-1) + 0.55*CORP_cycle (-2) 1.01*RES_cycle (-3)
R =0.93, DW=0.82
, 20
3 ,
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(OECD, 2008)

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100.0

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0.0
2000Q3
2000Q4
2001Q1
2001Q2
2001Q3
2001Q4
2002Q1
2002Q2
2002Q3
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
2005Q1
2005Q2
2005Q3
2005Q4
2006Q1
2006Q2
2006Q3
2006Q4
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
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, 33
2000 1- 2011 4- 48
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2- 3

40%- .
30%

.
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.
.

3-6

3-6
9-12 .
15


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16