Chế Biến Xuất Khẩu Thuỷ Sản Việt Nam: Báo Cáo Ngành

BO CO NGNH:
CH BIN XUT KHU

THU SN VIT NAM
Thng 10 nm 2007
TNG QUAN THU SN VIT NAM

THU SN VIT NAM.
V TH NGNH CH BIN-XUT
KHU THY SN.
C IM NGNH CH BIN-XUT
KHU THY SN.
PHN KHC NGNH CH BIN

XUT KHC THU SN VIT NAM.
RO CN GIA NHP NGNH- MC

HI NHP QUC T CA NGNH
S LC TNH HNH XUT KHU

THY SN 6 THNG NM 2007
PHN TCH C PHIU THU SN

o
ABT
NAV
AGF
VHC
FMC
SJ1
C PHIU CC CNG TY NGNH CH BIN-XUT KHU THY

SN: C TIP TC DUY TR MC TNG TRNG CAO?
Nm 2006 l nm bng n ca ngnh thy sn Vit Nam, tc
tng trng xut khu tng mnh khin gi c phiu ca cc
DN thy sn tng mnh, c bit l cc DN ch bin-xut khu
c tra-basa.
Tuy nhin, nhng nm tip ti ngnh thy sn Vit Nam c tip
tc gi c mc tng trng v hiu qu cao?
Nhn nh ca chng ti:
Nhu cu v tiu th thy sn th gii ang trong xu th tng,
nui trng ang ng vai tr quan trng trong vic p ng
nhu cu thy sn.
Vit Nam l mt trong nhng quc gia sn xut thy sn chnh
ca th gii vi u th v nui trng, trong nhng nm ti vn
c kh nng tng trng.
Xut khu tm c khuynh hng chng li nhng xut khu c
vn tip tc t mc tng trung cao.
- Nguyn Th Thu Tr

- L Hong Tn
Chuyn vin Phn tch
T: +84 (8) 9106411 Ext:143
Email: thutra@thanglongsc.com.vn
tanlh@thanglongsc.com.vn
Khi Phn tch & u t

Cng ty Chng Khon Thng Long
www.thanglongsc.com.vn
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Chi nhnh:
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T: +84 (4) 733 7671 F: +84 (4) 733 7670
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THU SN VIT NAM

Nm 2006:
Xut khu thu sn: 3,4 t USD.
Sn lng sn xut: 3,7 triu tn.
Sn lng nui trng: 1,7 triu tn.
C nc c hn 500 nh my ch bin, vi
tng cng sut hn 4.500 tn/ngy.
o Hn 200 Doanh nghip tiu chun xut
khu vo EU. 300 doanh nghip vo Hoa
K, 285 vo Hn Quc.
o Sn phm c mt hn 119 quc gia trn th
gii.
o
o
o
o
chnh ca th gii: l quc gia ng th 5 v nui trng thy sn, cung cp

2.33% tng sn lng thy sn nui trng th gii v l quc gia ng th
10 v xut khu thy sn chim 8.81% tng gi tr xut khu nm 2005.
bnh qun 14.79%/nm giai on 2001-2006. Nm 2006 kim ngch xut
khu t 3.36 t USD tng 22.7% so vi nm 2005; theo k hoch nm 2007
kim ngch xut khu s t 3.7 t USD.8 thng u nm 2007 kim ngch
xut khu thy sn t 2.361 t USD tng 14.1% so vi cng k 2006.
o Xut khu thu sn: 4 t USD.

o Sn lng sn xut: 4 triu tn.
o Sn lng nui trng: 2 triu tn.
Li rng/doanh thu
Tng n/Tng ti sn
Tng n/Vn ch s hu
Li nhun gp/Doanh thu
%GVHB
%CPBH&QL
ROA
ROE
Vit Nam l mt trong nhng nh sn xut v xut khu chnh thy sn
Kim ngch xut khu hng nm t trn 2 t USD vi mc tng trng
Hng n 2010:
Ch tiu (2006)*
Nhu cu tiu th thy sn th gii tip tc tng trong vai tr ca nui trng
ngy cng quan trng trong vic p ng nhu cu ny v y l li th ca Vit
Nam:
Tnh t nm 1990 n 2005, mc tiu th thy sn bnh qun u ngi trn
th gii tng 1.1%/nm, ko theo tng cu sn phm thy sn th gii ( gm
nhu cu thc phm v chn nui) tng bnh qun 2.3%/nm s t mc 179
triu tn s vt tng cung 5.2 triu tn vo nm 2015.
Ch vi sn lng chim bnh qun 18.4% tng sn lng thy sn (2001-
DN CBXK
TM
C
2.69%
6.38%
56.3%
46%
1.89
0.94
8.4%
14.4%
91.6%
85.6%
4.2%
7.1%
7.3%
20.1%
17.7%
38.6%
* Tng hp 5 DN CBXK hng u nm 2006
2006), nhng c tnh ch bin xut khu ng gp n 70% tng gi

tr sn xut ngnh thy sn.
Vi li th v nui trng ch bin xut khu thy sn Vit Nam vn tip tc

tng trng, tuy nhin tc tng trng ca mi sn phm l khng
ng u v ph thuc vo th hiu tiu th, chnh sch ca cc th trng
nhp khu.
Xut khu tm kh nng tng tip tc chng li ch yu do gim sn lng v
gi tr xut ti th trng Nht
Vit Nam l mt trong nhng nh nui trng v ch bin xut khu tm s
chnh ca th gii, tng trng xut khu tm Vit Nam trong nhng nm
va qua kh n nh v sn lng v gi tr, tuy nhin xut khu bt u c
xu hng chng li vi sn lng xut khu gim 0.5% nm 2006; 8 thng
u nm 2007 sn lng xut khu gim 3.4% trong khi sn lng tng
2.4%.
Trong khi cc nc xut khu tm u tp trung vo cc th trng ln:
Nht, M, EU th nhu cu tiu th ti cc th trng ny tng trng chm
li, v c khuynh hng chuyn dn sang cc sn phm GTGT.
Xut khu c tra-basa vn l sn phm thc y tng trng xut khu thy
sn 2007 do hu ht nhu cu ti cc th trng u tip tc tng c bit l th
trng EU.
Vit Nam ang l nh nui trng-ch bin- xut khu c tra-basa ln nht th
gii dn thay i v chinh phc c cc th trng . Eu hin l th
trng tiu th c tra-basa ln nht ca Vit Nam (46.6% gi tr nm 2006)
v l th trng th trng ch yu thc y tng trng xut khu: nm
2005 th trng EU tng 107.7% so vi nm 2004 v nm 2006 tng
trng 146.6% gi tr; 7 thng u nm 2007 tng 42.5% so vi cng k
2006.
Tuy nhin, do cha nh hnh c hnh nh ti th trng EU, c tra-basa
vn c xem l sn phm gi r so vi cc sn phm c hi, c tuyt; kh
nng b thay th ca sn phm tng i cao.
Ton vng BSCL hin c hn 70 nh my ch bin c tra c basa, vi cng
sut ch bin 1,5 triu tn/nm. Trong khi sn lng nui trng d kin
t 1 triu tn nm 2007. Thiu quy hoch trong nui trng ang l vn
dn n ri ro v kh nng p ng nhu cu nguyn liu, gi nguyn liu
thng xuyn bin ng, v mi trng nhim.
V TH NGNH CH BIN-XUT KHU THY SN

Vai tr ca ngnh thy sn trong nn kinh t:
Trong giai on t nm 2001 n nay, ngnh Thu sn lun gi mt vai tr quan trng
trong nn kinh t. T trng ng gp GDP trung bnh ngnh t mc 2.54% v vn ang trong xu
hng tng; mc d t trng ng gp GDP ca khu vc Nng-Lm-Thu sn c khuynh hng
gim: chim 22.43% nm 2001 n nm 2006 ch cn 18.70%, do qu trnh chuyn i c cu
nn kinh t. Ngnh Thu sn ng gp tch cc vo qu trnh thc y tng trng chung ca
nn kinh t vi tc tng trng GDP ngnh lun cao hn tc tng trng GDP c nc
trong giai on t 2003-2005.
Nm
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Tng sn phm trong nc GDP(*)
292,535
313,247
336,242
362,435
392,996
425,088
+ Thu sn (**)
7,449
7,872
8,477
9,200
10,141
10,905
% Tng trng GDP
7.1%
7.3%
7.8%
8.4%
8.2%
% Tng trng GDP ngnh thy sn
5.7%
7.7%
8.5%
10.2%
7.5%
T trng trong GDP (%)
- Nng, lm, thu sn
22.43%
21.82%
21.06%
20.39%
19.56%
18.70%
+ Thu sn
2.55%
2.51%
2.52%
2.54%
2.58%
2.57%
Tng sn lng thu sn (1000 T.)
2,434.65
2,647.41
2,859.20
3,142.50
3,465.90
3,695.90
% Tng trng sn lng
8.7%
8.0%
9.9%
10.3%
6.6%
1,068,535
Din tch nui trng (ha)
755,177
797,743
867,613
902,900
1,034,400
% Tng trng din tch nui trng
5.64%
8.76%
4.07%
14.56%
3.30%
(*) Theo gi c nh 94 (T ng ); (**):GDP thy sn ch tnh n hot ng khai thc v nui trng
Ngun cung thu sn phc v cho nhu cu tiu th ni a v ch bin -xut khu. Trong
khi th trng trong nc ch yu vn a thch sn phm ti sng, tm c kh, th th trng
xut khu ch yu hng ng lnh nguyn liu v hng gi tr gia tng vi sn lng ln.
Ch bin-xut khu: ng lc pht trin ca ngnh ch bin thy sn.
Theo c tnh, tnh trn tng sn lng thy sn, nhu cu thy sn xut khu trong giai on
2002-2006 ch chim bnh qun 18.34%, song t trng ny tng mnh t 17.3% nm 2002 ln n
22.2% nm 2006. Sn lng thy sn xut khu trong nhng nm va qua lun t mc tng tng
cao hn so vi tc tng trng sn lng tiu th ni a v tc tng trng tng sn lng.
Nh vy, th trng xut khu thy sn ngy cng c m rng v l ng lc thc y s pht trin
ca ngnh.
T nm 2002, hng nm, kim ngch xut khu thu sn u t trn 2 t USD, tc tng
trng bnh qun 14.79%/nm trong giai on 2000-2006. c bit trong nm 2006, ln u tin
kim ngch xut khu thu sn Vit Nam vt qua con s 3 t USD t 3,364 t USD tng
22.7% so vi nm 2005- mc tng trng cao nht k t nm 2001.
4,000
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
3,500
3,000
25.0%
3,364 22.7%
20.2%
13.8%
2,200
2,500
2,000
1,778
2,397
2,004
2,005
5.0%
0.0%
2001
% Tng trng sn lng xut khu

% Tng sn lng tiu th ni a
% Tng tng sn lng
10.0%
9.0%
500
2,006
2002
2003
KN XK (triu USD)
15.0%
14.10%
8.7%
1,000
2,003
2,361
14.4%
2,023
1,500
2,002
20.0%
2,741
2004
2005
2006 8 thng
u nm
2007
% tng so vi cng k nm trc
Nhu cu thy sn th gii ngy

cng ph thuc vo ngun thy
sn nui trng:
Vit Nam: Mt trong nhng nh sn xut thy sn chnh ca th gii.

iu kin t nhin thun li cho hot ng khai thc v nui trng thy sn cng vi s n
lc ca ngnh thy sn - cc DN Vit Nam trong giai on i mi t nm 2000 n nay trong vic hi
nhp vi th trng th gii, xy dng v tun th cc tiu chun v VSATTP nh: HACCP, GMP,
T trng thy sn
nui trng th gii
ng gp vo tng
sn lng thy sn
tng t 34.1%
(2001) ln 39.97%
(2005)
Tc tng trung
thy sn
nui
trng trung bnh
2001-2005
t
6.64%/nm lun
cao hn tc
tng trng tng
sn lng thy sn
th gii bnh qun
2.04% /nm
T trng
sn lng
thy sn
nui
trng Vit
Nam
ng gp
vo tng
sn lng
thy sn
nui
trng th
gii: tng
t 1.25%
(2001) ln
2.33%
(2005)
SSOP.; Vit Nam tr thnh mt trong nhng nh sn xut thy sn chnh ca th gii.
Theo bo co thng nin ca FAO tnh n nm 2005, Vit Nam l nh cung cp ln th 5
th gii cung cp 2.33 % sn lng thy sn nui trng th gii chim 3.76 % tng gi tr thy sn
nui trng; ng thi l mt trong 10 nh xut khu chnh vi gi tr c tnh chim 8.81% tng gi tr
xut khu th gii
Top 10 nh xut khu ln nht th gii
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0 .0 0
iu kin nui trng thun li

l mt trong nhng li th thc
y ngnh thy sn Vit Nam
pht trin v khng nh v tr
trn th trng thy sn th gii.
7 .6 7
4 .9 2
6 .7 8
4 .1 7
5 .3 6
3 .6 7
4 .6 0
4 .1 1
3 .6 0
3 .3 9
5 .0 0
C h in a
Th a ila n d
D e n m a rk
C h ile
V ie t N a m
4 .4 7
4 .0 5
3 .9 2
3 .6 9
4 .0 5
1 0 .0 0
3 .6 9
3 .4 6
3 .3 2
4 .2 9
3 .6 9
3 .5 8
3 .2 3
3 .6 1
3 .5 1
3 .0 4 2 .8 4 2 .7 5 2 .6 0
2 .5 5 2 .4 7 2 .4 1 2 .5 8
3 .3 2 2 .1 9 2 .2 0 2 .2 1 2 .2 4
2 .8 8 3 .0 6 1 .9 21 .8 12 .0 41 .9 0
3 .3 8 2 .6 7 2 .8 1 2 .0 1 .4 31 .7 81 .8 4
1 5 .0 0
2 0 .0 0
2 5 .0 0
3 0 .0 0
3 5 .0 0
4 0 .0 0
N o rw a y
U n it e d S t a t e s o f A m e ric a
C anada
N e t h e rla n d s
S p a in
Ngun: FISHSTAT-FAO
C IM NGNH CH BIN-XUT KHU THY SN

Ngun cung thy sn:
Ngun cung thu sn ch yu n t khai thc v nui trng. Trong khi kh nng khai thc
Tc tng trng nhanh chng
ca sn lng thu sn nui trng
so vi sn lng khai thc lm cho
nui trng ngy cng chim t
trng ln trong vc ng gp vo
tng sn lng thu sn.
2,500
19.0%
18.7%
4.5%
500
4.5%
hi sn c pht trin hu nh ti cc a phng. Trong khi , hot ng nui trng thy sn
15%
vi quy m ln tp trung ch yu ti khu vc ng Bng Sng Hng v ng Bng Sng Cu
10%
Long ni c h thng sng ngi v kh hu thun li. Sn lng thu sn nui trng ti hai khu
5%
vc ny nm 2005 chim n 83.40% tng sn lng thu sn nui trng, trong tm chim
0.7%
0%
2002
2003
Khai thc('000 tn)

% Tng trng nui trng
iu kin t nhin thun li: c b bin tri di 3.200 km cng vi mt vng c quyn
2.4%
3.0%
2001
lng th n nm 2006 t l ny t 46%.
20%
14.6%
1,000
sn lng thu sn. Nu nh nm 2001, sn lung thu sn nui trng ch chim 29% tng sn
rng trn 1.0 triu km2; v trn 1.4 triu ha din tch nh bt ng ni, hot ng khai thc thy
19.9%
1,500
hu v s pht trin k thut nui trng ang ngy cng ng vai tr quan trng gp phn tng
25%
22.9%
2,000
ngy cng hn ch vi tc tng trng gim dn th nui trng thu sn vi thun li v kh
2004
2005
2006
Nui trng('000 tn)

% Tng trng khai thc
84.82% v c chim 83.85%.

Ngnh nui trng thu sn: tm s v c tra-basa ti khu vc ng Bng Sng Cu
Long tr thnh mt ngnh cng nghip quan trng, cung cp ngun nguyn liu u vo cho
ngnh cng nghip ch bin-xut khu thu sn. Tuy nhin, do tnh ma v ca hot ng nui
trng c bit l tm s nn ngun nguyn liu phc v cho hot ng ch bin xut khu khng
n nh, gi c thng xuyn bin ng. Bn cnh tnh trng t pht thiu quy hoch ca hot
ng nui trng ( Na u nm 2007, sn lng c tra, basa nui tng t bin, c t 400.000
tn, tng 100% so vi cng k 2006 ) tim n nguy c hy hoi mi trng v cc vng nui.
SN LNG NUI TRNG THEO IA PHNG

Cc vng
2003
Tng sn lng(t'000n)
2004
2005 T trng 05
2003
Sn lng c('000tn)
2004
2005 T trng 05
2003
Sn lng tm('000tn)
2004
2005 T trng 05
BS Hng
165.470
194.990
215.312
145.370
163.603
17.5%
8.698
8.793
9.507
2.85%
ng Bc
39.982
47.676
45.007
3.13%
29.242
32.744
34.384
3.7%
3.032
4.328
3.980
1.19%
Ty Bc
Bc Trung B
4.701
53.317
5.503
57.759
5.900
61.115
0.41%
4.25%
4.642
36.744
5.411
39.666
5.798
40.973
0.6%
4.4%
3.032
10.002
4.328
10.895
3.890
12.007
1.16%
3.59%
Duyn hi Nam Trung B
20.451
23.408
25.872
1.80%
3.454
4.745
5.293
0.6%
16.482
16.128
16.250
4.86%
Ty Nguyn
10.958
10.449
10.506
0.73%
10.746
10.239
10.291
1.1%
0.062
0.054
0.054
0.02%
ng Nam B
73.418
89.407
90.253
6.28%
29.471
47.016
44.964
4.8%
17.366
18.950
17.764
5.32%
634.798
1,003.095
773.294
1,202.486
983.384
1,437.349
476.376 628.188
761.567 933.494
67.3%
100.0%
182.221
240.895
222.643
286.119
270.652
334.104
81.01%
100%
BS Cu Long
C nc
14.98% 124.050
68.42% 366.051
1.000 604.400
Ngun: Nim gim thng k 2006
Nhu cu thy sn th gii

Vi d bo v tng trng nhu
cu tiu th thu sn ca FAO,
n nm 2015 nhiu kh nng
tng cu thu sn s vt qua
tng cung khong 5.2 triu tn.
Do tr lng thy sn trong t
nhin gim, tng sn phm thy
sn nui trng d tng gp 6
ln trong vng 20 nm qua v
t mc 63 triu tn cho n
nm 2010.
Trong sut mt thp nin cho
n nm 2015, tng sn phm
thy sn nui trng th gii t
nht tng gp i vi tc
tng trung bnh khng di
7.0%/nm.
Theo s liu ca FAO, gn 75% tng sn phm thu sn c s dng cho nhu cu thc phm ca
con ngi, phn cn li dng cho cc sn phm khng phi thc phm nh thc n nui trng.
Nhng s liu di hn cho thy mc tiu th thy sn tnh bnh qun u ngi ca th gii
tng mnh t 14 kg nm 1990 ln n 16.5 kg nm 2005, tng trng bnh qun 1.1%/nm. Tc
tng trng ny theo FAO d bo s tip tc c duy tr, n nm 2015 tiu th thu sn trn u
ngi ca th gii s t mc 19.1kg/ngi.
C nhiu yu t thc dy s tng trng tiu th thu sn:
Dn s th gii tip tc tng trng cng vi xu hng ngy cng a thch thu sn ca
nhng ngi ln tui trn th gii
S tng trng kinh t ti Chu cng gp phn thc y tng trng nhu cu thu sn.
Gi tr ca thu sn i vi sc kho con ngi ( M c l ngun cung cp chnh Omega-3

c li cho sc kho) thc dy tng trng nhu cu thu sn gi tr cao khng ch cc nc
pht trin.
Nh vy, FAO d bo rng tng nhu cu thu sn (bao gm c nhu cu v thc phm v
nhu cu v chn nui-nui trng ) s tng bnh qun 2.3%/nm, dt mc 179 triu tn vo nm 2015 d
chu tc ng ca gi tng do ngun cung hn ch ca mt s loi thu sn.
Xu hng tng trng trong tng cu thu sn th gii thc y s pht trin ca hot
ng ch bin- xut khu thu sn Vit Nam-mt trong nhng nh sn xut v xut khu chnh thu
sn ca th gii.
PHN KHC NGNH CH BIN XUT KHC THU SN VIT NAM
Phn khc theo sn phm: Thy sn xut khu c chia lm 4 nhm sn phm chnh :
Mc d tm ng lnh vn l sn
phm xut khu ch lc chim t
trng ln nht, song mc tng
trng nhng nm qua khng ln
,thay vo l s tng trng
mnh cc san phm khc cho thy
khuynh hng a dng ha sn
phm.
Tm ng lnh :
C ng lnh,
Mc- bch tuc ng lnh,
Hng kh
Trong tm ng lnh v c ng lnh l hai mt hng xut khu ch lc: ch ring hai
mt hng ny chim n 77.8% tng gi tr xut khu nm 2006 vi 43.6% cho tm ng lnh v
34.2% cho c ng lnh.
4,000.00
3,500.00
3,000.00
2,500.00
2,000.00
1,500.00
1,000.00
500.00
2,002
2,003
2,004
Tm ng lnh
Mc v bch tuc ng lnh
Mt hng khc
2,005
2,006
C ng lnh
Tm c kh
Tm s: Hng ti sn xut cc sn phm gi tr gia tng

Xut khu tm Vit Nam c du
hiu chng li sau mt thi gian
tng trng kh n nh khi sn
lng xut khu nm 2006 gim
0.5%.
Theo s liu thng k ca FAO, 10 nh nui trng tm chnh hin nay cung cp n 90% sn
lng tm nui cho nhu cu tiu th th gii mt hng ny, Vit Nam c mt v tr kh n nh l nh
nui trng tm ln th 3 th gii sau Trung Quc, v Thi Lan. Vit Nam l mt trong nhng nh
nhp khu c li th v mt hng gi tr gia tng, bn cnh cc mt hng truyn thng.
Khc vi sn phm tm chn trng c nui trng ch yu Thi Lan, Trung Quc,
Malaisia; tm s l sn phm c nui trng ph bin p ng nhu cu ch bin xut khu ti Vit
Nam c hng v ngon v m hn. Cng vi n , Banglades, Mianma; Vit Nam l mt trong
nhng nh cung cp tm s chnh ca th gii.
Tm s c ch bin ch yu di hai dng sn phm:
Sn phm s ch: HOSO (tm s nguyn con), HLSO ( tm s v b u), PDTO (tm
s bc v ui), PD (tm s bc v),...
Sn phm tinh ch: Tm tm bt, tm sushi, tm nobashi,...

Nhng nm qua, xut khu tm ca Vit Nam t mc tng trng kh n nh v c sn
lng v gi tr, tuy nhin tc tng trng c du hiu chng li khi nm 2006 sn lng
xut khu tm gim 0.5% mc d tnh trn gi tr vn t mc tng 6.5%.
C tra-basa:
Vic chuyn hng t th trng
M sang th trng Chu u v
cc th trng khc to s tng
trng mnh tr li xut khu c
tra-basa.
C tra (pangasius hypothalmus) v c basa (pangasius bocourti) ca Vit Nam l loi c

tht trng nc ngt thuc h catfish. Hin nay Vit Nam l nh sn xut c tra-basa ln nht th
gii, ngoi ra M v Trung Quc l nhng nh cung cp chnh c channel catfish.
Sn phm ch bin xut khu chnh c tra-basa l phil ng lnh c phn loi theo mu sc
tht c:
C tht trng ( thng c gi cao, c th trng EU a chung)
C tht hng
C th vng ( thng c gi thp nht)
Bn cnh l cc sn phm gi tr gia tng nh: c tra-basa tm bt, basa mui s t, basa xin
que...
Phn khc theo th trng xut khu: Thy sn Vit Nam c xut khu i 130 quc gia
v vng lnh th trn th gii; nhng khch hng chnh ca Vit Nam l: Nht, M v EU (cng l
nhng th trng tiu th thy sn chnh ca th gii). Tnh chung trn tng gi tr xut khu thy sn,
th Nht Bn lun l th trng ln nht: nhp khu 15.27% tng sn lng xut khu chim
25.71% tng gi tr, th trng EU ng th 2 vi 27.11% tng sn lng chim 21.61% gi tr; th
trng M l th trng ln th 3 v 12.19% sn lng chim 19.8%. gi tr. Tuy nhin tng mt
hng xut khu c c cu th trng xut khu ring.
Th trng xut khu tm s: Nht, M v EU l 3 th trng truyn thng chim t
trng ln trong tng gi tr xut khu ca Vit Nam. Tnh theo gi tr xut khu nm 2006, ba th
Xut khu tm s Vit Nam ph
thuc chnh vo nhu cu tiu th,
th hiu v chnh sch ca 3 th
trng nhp khu tm chnh:
Nht, M v EU.
trng ny chim n 79.4% tng kim ngch xut khu tm, trong :
Nht l th trng tiu th tm ln nht Vit Nam chim 39.8%,
M ng th hai vi 29% v
EU l th trng ln th 3 chim 10.6%.
Top 10 nh nui trng tm ln nht

Sn lng (tn)
T trng so vi tng sn lng th gii
Quc gia
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
China
304,182 384,141 789,373 935,944 1,024,949 22.6% 25.68% 37.08% 38.26% 38.31%
Thailand
280,007 264,924 330,725 360,292 375,320 20.8% 17.71% 15.53% 14.73% 14.03%
Viet Nam
149,979 180,662 231,717 275,569 327,200 11.1% 12.08% 10.88% 11.27% 12.23%
Indonesia
149,168 159,597 191,148 238,567 279,539 11.1% 10.67% 8.98% 9.75% 10.45%
India
102,930 114,970 113,240 133,020 143,170 7.6% 7.69% 5.32% 5.44% 5.35%
Mexico
48,014
45,853
45,857
62,361
72,279 3.6% 3.07% 2.15% 2.55% 2.70%
Brazil
40,000
60,000
90,190
75,904
63,134 3.0% 4.01% 4.24% 3.10% 2.36%
Bangladesh
55,499
56,020
56,503
58,044
63,052 4.1% 3.74% 2.65% 2.37% 2.36%
Ecuador
45,269
46,735
55,500
56,300
56,300 3.4% 3.12% 2.61% 2.30% 2.10%
Myanmar
5,473
6,550
19,181
30,000
48,640 0.4% 0.44% 0.90% 1.23% 1.82%
Tng sn lng th gii 1,346,702 1,495,950 2,129,024 2,446,192 2,675,336 87.7% 88.2% 90.3% 91.0% 91.7%
Nhu cu tiu th tm ti cc th trng ny trong nhng nm gn y, c bit l th

trng Nht Bn c mc tng trng chm (Nm 2006, sn lng nhp khu tm M tng 11.6%
vi tng gi tr tng 13.1% v theo d bo, nm 2007 nhp khu tm ca M ch tng 5% vi n
gi gim 1%; Sn lng nhp khu tm ca Nht nm 2006 ch tng 2.2%) . ng thi th hiu
tiu th sn phm tm cng ang dn c s thay i.
Th trng XK Tm Vit Nam nm 2006 (% GT)
Canada,
3.81%
Australia,
5.25%
Cc nc
khc,
11.63%
Nht,
39.79%
`
Eu, 10.56%
M, 28.96%
Ngun:Vasep
Th trng Nht: lun c xem l th trng kh tnh vi cc tiu chun kht khe v VSATTP.
T cui nm 2006, u nm 2007, cc Doanh nghip Vit Nam lin tc b cnh bo v vic vi
phm VSATTP v buc phi kim tra 100% khi nhp khu vo Nht, thm ch c lc Nht
Vn cht lng VSATTP: vn
hng u ca cc DN nu mun
gi th trng Nht: VSATTP phi
c m bo t khu nui trng
n ch bin- xut khu.
Top 10 nh nhp khu tm nguyn liu

ng lnh vo Nht Bn (tn)
Quc gia
2005
2006 Thng 15/2007
Vit Nam
54,511
51,133 10.503
Innxia
45,574
43,665 15.474
cnh co c kh nng cm nhp khu tm Vit Nam .

Mc d nhp khu chnh ca Nht l tm nguyn liu, ng lnh; song s liu thng k
cho thy nhng nm gn y s thch v nhu cu tiu th tm ca ngi Nht ang chuyn dn
sang cc sn phm ch bin sn v cc sn phm gi tr gia tng.; nhu cu nhp khu tm nguyn
liu-ng lnh ang gim dn.
Innxia, n , Trung Quc v Thi Lan cng vi Vit Nam l nhng quc gia cung
cp chnh tm cho th trng Nht Bn. Trong khi, Trung Quc, Thi Lan cung cp chnh tm
chn trng nui c gi thnh r hn do ngn cung di do th Vit Nam v n cung cp tm
s do c gi thnh cao hn v tng i n nh.
26,309
28,546
7.995 Vic Nht Bn k Hip nh thng mi t do song phng vi Thi Lan v Innxia s phn
Trung Quc
24,092
22,810
Thi Lan
Nga
Mianma
18,398
10,384
7,519
20,097
9,518
8,847
7.187 no gy kh khn cho cc Doanh nghip ch bin xut khu tm vo th trng ny do tnh cnh
8.171 tranh cao gia cc th trng xut khu nht l khi Vit Nam b kim sot cht ch v vn d
4.107
lng khng sinh.
2.402
Canaa
8,055
8,665
Greenland
Phlippin
7,527
6,237
6,788
5,332
2.627
2.175
1.481
Ngun: Globefish
Tc tng trng
Nhp khu tm vo Nht Bn (tn)
Dng sn phm
2003
2004
2005
2006
2004
2004
2004
Sng
293
383
271
184 30.72% -29.24% -32.10%
Ti/p lnh
19
34
19
7 78.95% -44.12% -63.16%
3.54% -3.73% -1.07%
Nguyn liu, ng lnh
233,195 241,445 232,443 229,952
Kh/p mui/ngm nc
1,977
2,351
2,008
2,035 18.92% -14.59%
1.34%
Chn/ng lnh
13,927
16,745
17,051
18,269 20.23%
1.83%
7.14%
Chn v hun khi
453
618
422
414 36.42% -31.72% -1.90%
Ch bin sn/bo qun
33,361
39,692
42,181
50,013 18.98%
6.27% 18.57%
Sushi (vi cm)
92
341
263
204 270.65% -22.87% -22.43%
Tng ( gm cc sn phm
283,318 301,608 294,658 301,078 6.46% -2.30% 2.18%
khc)
Th trng M: Sau khi DOC quyt nh p thu chng bn ph gi ln sn phm tm ng lnh

ca 6 nc: Thi Lan, Vit Nam, Trung Quc, n , Brazil, Ecuador theo n kin ca Lin
minh tm min nam (SSA), cng vi vic M buc cc nh nhp khu tm phi k qu 100% tin
M l quc gia thng xuyn p
dng cc chnh sch bo h sn
xut trong nc: mt trong nhng
cch thc ph bin l p dng thu
chng bn ph ga. iu ny s
gy kh khn cho cc nc xut
khu c bit l vi nhng cha
phi l thnh vin t chc WTO.
thu gy thit hi v kh khn cho cc Doanh nghip ch bin xut khu tm Vit Nam khi
xut khu vo th trng ny.
Cng nh Nht Bn, nhng nm gn y, th trng M ang c xu hng chuyn dn
sang cc sn phm gi tr gia tng nh tm ng lnh tm bt v cc mn n c ch bin t
tm, trong khi tm bc v ng lnh v tm nguyn v b u ng lnh c tc tng trng
thp hn tng nhp khu.
Thi Lan, Innexia, Vit Nam, Trung Quc v Ecuado l 5 nh xut khu tm chnh
Top 10 nh nhp khu tm vo M

2005
2006
tn
tn
1000 USD
vo th trng M chim n 67.86% tng gi tr, mc tp trung th phn ca cc nh nhp
Quc Gia
T.Lan
1000
USD
160,892 980,540
Innxia
52,641 373,690
58,729
430,257
Vit Nam
42,949 442,171
37,078
429,753
nhp khu chnh c sn lng v doanh s gim (Th phn gim t 8.12% xung cn 6.28%);
193,764 1,277,330
khu chnh ang tng ln: nm 2005 ch chim 66.42% tng sn lng nhp khu M th nm
2006 tng th phn tng 70.66%. Nm 2006, Vit Nam l quc gia duy nht trong s nhng nh
T.Quc
45,205 205,462
68,150
330,918
Trung Quc v Thi Lan l hai quc gia c tc tng cao nht ln lt l: 50.8%; 20.4% i vi
Ecuao
49,574 272,642
59,363
324,241
Mhic
26,095 320,204
35,378
321,856
sn lng v 61.1%; 30.3% i vi gi tr nhp khu.
35,699 313,915
27,277
252,020
Bnglat
Maleixia
15,862 136,310
17,191 115,987
19,442
20,349
186,743
136,428
Vndula
11,365
9,856
52,434
59,294
Ngun: Globefish
Trong khi Trung Quc ang chu lnh cm ca M do vi phm tiu chun VSATTP, s
thnh cng ca Ecuador trong vic buc M phi gim thu CBPG thc y Thi Lan-n
khiu kin M ln WTO. V kin c th ko di v cha r kt qu, tuy nhin vic Ecuador uc
gim thu; Innxia tip tc y mnh xut khu sang M do c li th khng b p thu
CBPG , c v vic mt dn th phn nm va qua cho thy cc DN Vit Nam s vn tip tc
gp nhiu kh khn nu khng tn dng c c hi khi tm ca Trung Quc b cm nhp khu
vo M.
Sn phm
ng lnh tm bt
Ch bin L khc
Ch bin khc
ng lnh bc v
HLSO ng lnh Tt c cc c
Sn phm khc
Tng cng
Nhp khu tm ca M theo dng sn phm (2005-2006)

2005
2006
% tng/gim
Gi
tn
1000 USD
tn
1000 USD KL GT 2005 2006 Chnh lch %
44,572
213,951
49,252 236,559 10.5
10.6 4.8 4.8
0.1
83,590
578,899
116,645 827,643 39.5
43.0 6.9 7.1
2.5
1,248
9,229
1,238
8,095 -0.8 -12.3 7.4 6.5
-11.6
147,634 1,042,806
162,286 1,209,569 9.9
16 7.1 7.5
5.5
247,858 1,760,556
255,669 1,789,096 3.2
1.6 7.1
7
-1.5
3,934
33,622
5,209
44,287 32.4
31.7 8.5 8.5
-0.5
528,836 3.639.064
590,299 4,115,250 11.6
13.1 6.9
7
1.3
Th trng xut khu c tra, c basa:

T nm 1999 n nm 2002, c tra-basa Vit Nam c xut khu ch yu sang th
Nh vy theo s liu nm 2006,
EU vn l th trng nhp khu c
tra-basa ln nht ca Vit Nam vi
t trng ln hn hn so vi th
trng M v Nga.
trng M do cht lng cao v gi c cnh tranh so vi c channel Catfish ca M. V kin

thng hiu catfish v p thu CBPG ln phil c tra-basa ( mc thu 36.84%-63.88%), xut
khu vo M gp kh khn.
Tuy vy, nh to c tn tui sau cc v kin, vi cht lng v gi c tng i r so
vi cc sn phm c tht trng, c tra-basa chuyn hng chinh phc thnh cng cc th trng
EU v cc th trng khc nh: Nga, Asean, Australia, Mhico,.... Xut khu c tra-basa tip tc
tng mnh tr li t nm 2004, nm 2005: sn lng tng 69.6%; gi tr tng: 43.3% gi tr trong
ring th trng EU t mc tng 146.1% sn lng; nm 2006: sn lng tng 103% v gi
tr tng 124.6%. (286,600 tn c xut khu vi tng kim ngch 736,872 triu USD)
Theo c cu gi tr xut khu nm 2006, hin nay cc th trng chnh tiu th c tra-basa l: Eu,
Th trng XK c tra, basa Vit Nam nm 2006
(% GT)
Nga v M.
Cc nc
khc, 18.6%
EU, 46.6%
Trung Quc,
5.1%
ASEAN,
8.5%
M, 9.9%
Ngun: Vasep
Nga , 11.3%
Th trng M
Trong khi nhu cu tiu th sn phm c da trn vn tip tc tng (tc tng trng
nhp khu bnh qun 2004-2006: 149.48%, tc tng nm 2006: 151.77%) : th ngun catfish
trong nc gim dn trong 3 nm tr li y t 300,000 tn nm 2003 xung cn 256,219 tn nm
2006. Cng vi vic sn lng gim, gi trung bnh nm 2006 ca c catfish M tng ln 79.5
cents/pao so vi 72.5 cents/pao nm 2005 v 58.1 cents/pao nm 2003.
Quc gia cnh tranh chnh vi c tra-basa l Trung Quc, sn phm c ca Trung Quc
l sn phm cng loi vi channel catfish ca M. Trung Quc ang ngy cng khng nh v
th nh cung cp c da trn cho th trng M, trong 2 nm 2005-2006 nhp khu ca M t
Trung Quc tng 2 ln v ch tnh n thng 04/2007, sn lng xut khu c da trn ca Trung
Quc vo M t 82.42% sn lng nm 2006
Vic M cm nhp c ca Trung Quc do cc vn v d lng khng sinh phn no gp phn
gi vng v tr nh cung cp c da trn hng u ca Vit Nam ti th trng M. Tuy nhin
Trung Quc s tip tc l i th cnh tranh chnh ca cc nh sn xut/xut khu c tra-basa Vit
Nam vi sn lng nui trng ang tng dn (tng 37% nm 2004 v 61% nm 2005) v lun c
li th cnh tranh v gi khi sn lng tng.
Nhp k hu catfis h ca M 1999-2006
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
Vit Nam
10000
Trung Quc
20000
Thi Lan
30000
40000
Malaixia
Nc khc
Th trng EU:
L th trng a thch cc loi c tht trng truyn thng: C tuyt, c minh thi, c hi
Na uy,....Do c tra-basa Vit Nam l mt loi c tht trng c gi c r tng i so vi cc loi c
truyn th trng nh bt, c mi v ngon v d ch bin, nn dn thay i c thi quen v
c s chp nhn ca ngi tiu dng cc nc EU. Tc tng trng nhu cu tiu th c trabasa ca cc nc EU ang l ng lc chnh thc y tng trng xut khu c tra-basa Vit
Nam.
Tuy cho n nay, trong cch nhn nhn ca ngi Chu u, sn phm c tra-basa Vit
Nam vn cha nh hnh c thng hiu v c xem l sn phm gi r so vi cc sn phm
cao cp nh c hi; chnh v vy kh nng b thay th cao
.Th trng Nga: Nm 2006, vi tc tng trng ln n 1303.2% sn lng v 1389.2% gi
tr xut khu, Nga tr thnh th trng tiu th c tra-basa ln th 2 ca Vit Nam. Th trng
Nga vn c xem l th trng d tnh, i hi khng cao v cht lng song vic Nga dng
nhp khu c tra-basa Vit Nam t thng 05/2007 kim tra lm nh hng ti cc DN Vit
Nam, mc d t thng 8/2007 Nga s nhp khu tr li c tra-basa Vit Nam cho thy vi bt c
th trng no cn m bo cc tiu chun v VSATTP v c c s thng nht trong vic xc
nh nhng tiu chun ny gia th trng xut khu v nhp khu.
RO CN GIA NHP NGNH- MC HI NHP QUC T CA NGNH

Cng vi s pht trin ca hot ng ch bin-xut khu thy sn, mc hi nhp
S cng ty ch bin thy sn t tiu
chun ngnh
327 ngnh ngy cng tng cao. Ngoi vic phi tun th cc tiu chun v ATVSTP ca Vit Nam,
c cp giy chng nhn xut khu vo cc th trng quc t, Doanh nghip phi p ng hng
chun EU
245 lot cc tiu chun nh: HACCP ( Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point System)- h thng
S cng ty c ch bin xut khu
qun l cht lng da trn c s phn tch cc mi nguy v cc im kim sot trng yu., GMP,
thy sn vo Nht
347
BRC, Global Standard Food, ISO 9001, kh nng truy xut ngun gc,...
Theo s liu ca Hip hi ch bin v xut khu thu sn (Vasep), tnh ti thng 06 nm
chun Canada
139
chun Thy S
171
chun Hn Quc
320
chun Trung Quc
321
2007: c nc c 327 cng ty t tiu chun ngnh tng 83 cng ty tng ng mc tng
34.01% so vi nm 2005, s code t tiu chun xut khu EU l 245 tng 36 cng ty, s code t
tiu chun Canada, Thy S, Trung Quc v Hn Quc ln lut l: 139; 171; 321 v 320,....v s
lng Doanh nghip Vit Nam t tiu chun xut khu ti cc th trung nc ngoi ngy cng
tng, iu ny mt mt cho thy cc Doanh nghip ngy cng hi nhp vi th trung th gii tuy
nhin mc cnh tranh gia cc Doanh nghip ngy cng tr nn gay gt.
DOANH NGHIP XUT KHU HNG U NM 2006
Doanh nghip xut khu tm
Doanh nghip xut khu c tra-basa
STT
DOANH NGHIP
KL (Tn) GT(Tr. USDT trng(GT) STT
DOANH NGHIP
KL (Tn) GT(Tr. USDT trng(GT)
1 MINH PH
11,532 131.756
9.02%
1 NAVICO
49,192 110.02
14.93%
2 CAMIMEX
8,035 89.406
6.12%
2 AGIFISH CO
18,958 54.083
7.34%
3 KIM ANH
8,204 75.299
5.16%
3 VINH HOAN CO., LTD
15,414 50.299
6.83%
4 MINH HI JOSTOCO
6,307 65.295
4.47%
4 HV CO., LTD
18,852 47.921
6.50%
5 VIET FOOD CO., LTD
5,298 62.371
4.27%
5 CASEAMEX
10,497 29.618
4.02%
6 PHNG NAM CO
5,560 61.728
4.23%
6 THANH THIN CO., LTD
12,990 26.991
3.66%
7 T XI
6,636 60.055
4.11%
7 THUN HNG CO
8,324 23.143
3.14%
8 FIIMEX VN
5,274 55.372
3.79%
8 VDFOOD
6,828 22.749
3.09%
9 STAPIMEX
4,684 55.101
3.77%
9 Q.V.D FOOD CO
7,902 22.552
3.06%
10 SEA MINH HI
4,350 52.286
3.58%
10 DOCIFISH
6,808 21.131
2.87%
11 AMANDA FOOD
5,087 48.509
3.32%
11 SEAPRODEX D NNG
8,913 20.343
2.76%
12 QUC VIT CO., LTD
4,992 47.968
3.28%
12 CAFATEX CORP
6,530 19.004
2.58%
13 SEAPRIMEXCO VN
5,251 47.938
3.28%
13 CUU LONG FISH COMPANY
7,853 18.615
2.53%
14 CADOVIMEX
4,390 43.477
2.98%
14 AN LC CO., LTD
6,999 18.541
2.52%
15 VIET NAM FISHONE CO., 3,781 39.749
2.72%
15 MEKONGFISH CO
6,253 17.029
2.31%
10
S LC TNH HNH XUT KHU THY SN 6 THNG NM 2007

Xut khu c tra-basa 6 thng u nm 2007
Xut khu thy sn 6 thng u

nm 2007 t 1,678 t USD bng
44% mc tiu kim ngch c nm
TH TRNG
ng lnh vn ng u v gi
EU
Ty Ban Nha
H Lan
Ba Lan
Nga
ASEAN
Singgapo
Malaixia
M
TQ&Hng Kng
Hng Kng
Ucraina
xtrylia
Mhic
Cc nc khc
Tng
tr xut khu vi 35.07% tng
KL: Khi lng (tn)
v tng 15.6% so vi cng k nm

2006:
Th trng xut khu:
EU hin ng u chim 25%

tng kim ngch tng 26.8% so
vi cng k 2006; M chim
18%, tng 10.4% v Nht vi
18%, gim 9.9% .
C cu sn phm: Tm
KL
82,339
17,182
15,918
16,306
21,384
15,901
6,655
4,169
8,125
9,312
8,772
8,771
4,344
4,864
16,507
171,545
GT
1/1-30/6/2007
Gi TB
232.930
49.903
48.266
389.410
42.546
36.609
15.111
7.476
27.018
21.172
19.983
16.567
14.747
14.008
49.194
454.793
GT: Gi tr (triu USD)
2.83
2.90
3.03
23.88
1.99
2.30
2.27
1.79
3.33
2.27
2.28
1.89
3.39
2.88
2.98
2.65
%KL
48.0
10.0
9.3
9.5
12.5
9.3
3.9
2.4
4.7
5.4
5.1
5.1
2.5
2.8
9.6
100
%GT
51.2
11.0
10.6
8.6
9.4
8.0
3.3
1.6
5.9
4.7
4.4
3.6
3.2
3.1
10.8
100
So vi 2006 (%)
KL
GT
38.6
43.5
61.9
65.8
70.3
82,1
15.2
10.5
2.5
-0.3
24.6
37.4
12.1
39.5
-2.4
-15.5
21.0
35.5
31.4
50.7
31.9
52.3
252.6
208,1
4.7
21.6
34.2
38.0
57.0
68.3
34.4
41.0
Ga TB: USD/kg
2. tuy nhin sn lng xut

Xut khu tm ng lnh 6 thng u nm 2007
khu gim 5.6%; C tra-basa

chim 27.55% gi tr xut khu
v l sn phm c tc tng
trng cao nht 34.4% v sn
lng v 41.0% v gi tr.
Theo d bo ca B Thng Mi,
vi tc tng kim ngch xut
khu nh su thng u nm v
nhu cu th trng th gii mt
hng ny c th t mc tiu xut
khu c nm 3.7 t USD, mt
hng c ng lnh vi s tng
trung mnh ca c tra-basa tip
thc y tng trng xut khu
2007.
TH TRNG
KL
GT
1/1-30/06/2007
Gi TB
M
Nht
EU
c
Php
Hn Quc
Canaa
i Loan
xtrylia
ASEAN
Malaixia
Xinhgapo
Trung Quc
Hng Kng
Thy S
Cc nc khc
Tng
13,715
20,536
7,978
2,052
1,223
3,077
1,928
3,163
2,113
1,841
984
712
2,291
1,592
1,080
923
58,644
KL: Khi lng (tn)
GT: Gi tr (triu USD)
11
187.734
177.121
61.231
16.926
9.412
24.059
23.988
23.368
22.045
20.518
13.617
5.865
18.746
13.143
12.046
8.018
578.875
13.69
8.62
7.67
8.25
7.70
7.82
12.44
7.39
10.43
11.15
13.84
8.24
8.18
8.26
11.15
8.69
9.871
%KL
23.4
35.0
13.6
3.5
2.1
5.2
3.3
5.4
3.6
3.1
1.7
1.2
3.9
2.7
1.8
1.6
100
Ga TB: USD/kg
%GT
32.4
30.6
10.6
2.9
1.6
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.8
3.5
2.4
1.0
3.2
2.3
2.1
1.4
100
Cng k 2006 (%)

KL
GT
2.3
-23.7
-7.3
10
35.1
61.7
10.7
64.7
-27.7
70.1
132.3
70.4
17.7
35.6
85.3
-16.1
-5.6
13.0
-21.2
0.3
14.8
46.4
77.0
37.5
63.6
-13.5
107.2
159.1
93.6
17.1
31.0
94.2
-8.1
2.7
CTCP XNK Thy Sn Bn Tre
Vn iu l
ABT
TSC khuyn ngh

Mc ri ro
Mua u c
Thp
63 t VN
Mua
Va
Mua thm
Cao
Gi
Bn
ABT (102.000, 102.000, 101.000, 102.000, +1.00000)
165
160
Thng s th trng
Gi hin ti
Vn ha th trng
Gi cao nht 52 tun
Gi thp nht 52 tun
C tc 2006
EPS
P/E
P/B
EPS k vng 2007
H s Beta
155
102.000
648.9 t VN
157.000
90.000
2.500
6.237
16.12
5.6
5.286
0.83
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
Thng s trong ngnh

Cng sut nh my hin nay
SL sut khu 2006
KN xut khu 2006
Din tch nui trng c d kin
SL nui trng c d kin
85
3.000 tn/nm
7.757 tn
20.89tr.USD
28 ha
15.000 tn
10000
5000
25 2 8
2000 2007
15
22
29
5
12 26 5
12
February
March
19
26
2
9
April
16
23
7
May
14
21
28
4
11
June
18
25
2
9
July
16
23
30 6
13
August
20
27
4 10 17
September
24
1
October
nh gi chung
Sn phm:
L doanh nghip i tin phong xut khu nghu ng
lnh, y vn l mt hng th mnh ca cng ty so vi
cc Doanh nghip trong ngnh.
Vi s tng trng ca th trng c tra-basa, cng
nh nhiu DN trong ngnh, ABT chuyn hng ch
bin xut khu c tra-basa; sn phm ny tr thnh
mt hang ch lc chim t trng ngy cng ln trong
tng doanh thu
Trong khi , Sn phm tm ng lnh c xu hng
ngy cng gim.
Nm
2005
2006
Qu 1/2007
Thnh phm
Sn lng
T trng
Sn lng
T trng
Sn lng
T trng
Nghu, s
2,434
42.84%
3,016
44.49%
277
19.60%
C
2,981
52.46%
3,723
54.92%
1,136
80.40%
Tm
267
4.70%
40
0.59%
0.00%
Tng
5,682
100%
6,779
100.00%
1,413
100.00%
Doanh thu
Gi tr(tr. ) T trng
Gi tr(tr. )
T trng
Gi tr(tr. ) T trng
Hng thy sn
250.803
88.80%
326.874
98.31%
78.210
98.04%
Nghu, s
79.166
28.03%
109.098
32.81%
16.260
20.38%
C
117.045
41.44%
204.307
61.45%
61.533
77.14%
Tm
52.916
18.74%
13.34
4.01%
0.390
0.49%
Khc
1.676
0.59%
0.129
0.04%
0.027
0.03%
Th trng:
Sn phm ca cng ty c xut i hu ht cc th
trng ln, tuy nhin EU l th trng ch yu tng
i n nh chim n 70% tng Doanh thu. Nhng
nm qua, DN chuyn hng a dng ha dn th
trng vi t trng doanh thu ca cc th trng khc
c xu hng tng.
So vi cc DN c thng hiu mnh, sn lng sn
xut ln kh nng cnh tranh ca cng ty cn hn ch;
tuy nhin trong thi im m gi nguyn liu tng
mnh nm 2006 cng ty vn gi c hiu sut li
nhun cao cho thy kh nng kim sot chi ph v
qun tr ca DN tt.
Nm
Th trng
EU
Nht
M
Th trng khc
2005
2006
Qu 1/2007
T trng v gi tr (%)
77
73
5
11
3
2
15
14
69
5
6
20
H thng qun l:
Hi ng qun tr ca Cng ty hin c 5 thnh vin, trong ng ng Kit Tng hin
ang nm gi 3.17% vn iu l ca cng ty, ng Tng cng tc ti Cng ty t nm
1986 hin ang gi vai tr TG Cng ty.
Ban Gim c hin c 3 thnh vin vi 2 Ph G l ng Nguyn Xun Hng-K s thy
sn v ng Nguyn Vn Nho- Ca nhn kinh t nng nghip.
12
Bo co kt qu hot ng kinh doanh

Doanh thu thun
Gi vn hng bn
Li nhun gp
T sut li nhun gp
Thu nhp khc
Chi ph bn hng
Chi ph qun l doanh nghip
Chi ph hot ng khc
Li nhun thun hot ng kinh doanh
Thu nhp hot ng ti chnh
Chi ph hot ng ti chnh
Li nhun hot ng ti chnh
Li nhun trc thu
Thu thu nhp
Thu thu nhp trc cc khon khu hao
Li nhun sau thu
C tc phi tr trn mi c phiu (VND)
Li nhun gi li
C phn thng
S lng c phn trung bnh
S lng c phn cui k
Thu nhp trn mi c phn (VND)
C tc trn mi c phn (VND)
T l chi tr c tc
2004
211,607,090
(192,134,523)
19,472,567
9.2%
289,614
(11,159,184)
(2,732,559)
0
5,870,438
1,618,134
(2,095,963)
(477,829)
5,392,609
0
0.0%
5,392,609
0
5,392,609
2005
282,432,690
(247,786,818)
34,645,872
12.3%
1,030,255
(21,822,909)
(2,826,777)
(737,051)
10,289,390
1,295,849
(3,774,438)
(2,478,589)
7,810,801
0
0.0%
7,810,801
0
7,810,801
2006
331,214,605
(273,026,796)
58,187,809
17.6%
1,080,848
(27,404,589)
(4,156,259)
(258,339)
27,449,470
1,739,392
(4,131,412)
(2,392,020)
25,057,450
0
0.0%
25,057,450
1,000
21,757,450
2007E
426,482,959
(356,127,786)
70,355,173
16.5%
1,134,890
(31,346,498)
(4,691,313)
(400,000)
35,052,253
6,700,000
(4,747,820)
1,952,180
37,004,433
3,700,443
10.0%
33,303,990
2,000
23,703,990
2008E
525,976,296
(436,852,395)
89,123,902
16.9%
1,191,635
(38,659,258)
(5,785,739)
(420,000)
45,450,540
9,916,000
(6,187,820)
3,728,180
49,178,719
4,917,872
10.0%
44,260,848
2,500
28,510,848
2009E
587,740,886
(486,287,387)
101,453,499
17.3%
1,251,217
(42,905,085)
(6,465,150)
(441,000)
52,893,481
10,411,800
(6,547,820)
3,863,980
56,757,461
11,351,492
20.0%
45,405,969
2,500
29,655,969
1,250,000
2,500,000
2,157
0.00%
2,500,000
2,500,000
3,124
0.00%
2,900,000
3,300,000
7,593
1,000
13.17%
4,800,000
6,300,000
5,286
2,000
37.83%
6,300,000
6,300,000
7,026
2,500
35.58%
6,300,000
6,300,000
7,207
2,500
34.69%
Cc y u t
nhn nh:
D bo doanh thu:
Vi k hoch pht trin m rng sn xut-ch bin c tra-basa, Aquatex Bn Tre a vo th hin hai d
n nm 2007:
D n xy dng vng nui c tra nguyn liu: vi 35 ao nui, din tch bnh qun 0.8 ha/ao, hng nm
d n s cung cp 15.000 tn c tra nguyn liu t tiu chun xut khu. D kin thng 7/2007, s th v
nui u tin.
D n m rng phn xng ch bin c tra fillet vi cng sut : 5000 tn thnh phm c tra fillet/nm.
D n d kin vn hnh chnh thc vo thng 10/2007.
=> Vi thnh cng ca t pht hnh tng vn thc hin d n, chng ti cho rng d n s c hon
thnh theo ng tin . Trn c s chng ti d tnh cc ch tiu hot ng kinh doanh ca cng ty giai
on 2007-2009 nh sau :
C cu chi ph
- GVHB: Trong nm 2008, khi nh my cng ty mi i vo hot ng v
cha hot ng ht cng sut, chi ph khu hao ca c th tng, tuy nhin
do ch ng c mt phn nguyn liu nn c cu CP Gi vn c th
gim nh so vi nm 2007. T nm 2009, khi nh my i vo hot ng
n nh, khu nui trng cung cp sn lng nguyn liu ti a, c cu chi
ph gi vn i vo n nh.
- CPQL v CPBH: c kim sot mc n nh: 7.4%/Doanh thu v
1.1%/Doanh thu.
Ch tiu
Sn lng xut khu (tn)
Doanh thu xut khu (t ng)
Doanh thu (t ng)
Tc tng trng doanh thu
Ch tiu
GVHB/DT
CPBH
CPQL
2007
8700
404
426.48
25.80%
2008
11000
510
525.97
23.30%
2009
12000
557
587.74
11.70%
S dng PP DCF
Hin gi dng tin 2007E - 2009E
Hin gi cc khon thu nhp sau nm 2009E
Tin v cc khon tng ng tin
Gi tr Cng ty
Vay n (di hn) cui nm
2006
Gi tr k ton vn ch s hu nm 2009E
510,248,857
Ch s P/B trung bnh trong ngnh
4,958,015
2009
82.74%
7.30%
1.1%
931,970
Hin gi gi tr th trng vn c ng
S dng ch s P/E ( Price/EPS)
1,127,204,180.40
771,076,408.78
Gi ( '000/cp)
81.81
351,153,950.28
3.21
Gi tr th trng vn c ng nm 2009E
515,409,304
Gi ( '000/cp)
Thu nhp rng nm
2008
83.06%
7.35%
1.1%
S dng ch s P/B (Market price/Book ratio)

1,134,401
516,341,274
Gi tr ngun vn ch s hu
2007
83.50%
7.35%
1.1%
122.39
S dng phng php chit khu c tc
2009E
45,405,969
Ch s P/E bnh qun ngnh
16.00
726,495,500
496,967,232
Gi ( '000/cp)
Ch s P/E ngnh cui nm 2009
16.00
Hin gi th trng c tc 2007E - 2009E

Gi c phiu cui nm 2009E
Gi ( '000/cp)
78.88
5.41
115.32
84.30
C s nh gi:
Chi ph s dng vn - WACC
Tc tng trng dng tin sau 2009E
Khi lng CP ang lu hnh
13.49%
7.00%
Gi tham kho
6,300,000
97.956
Khuyn ngh u t hp l nht:
Mc d khng phi l DN c quy m ln trong ngnh, song nh hot ng qun l hiu qu v kim sot tt chi ph, Doanh nghip hot ng hiu qu so vi
cc DN trong ngnh. Vic thc hin d n v chuyn i sang sn xut sn phm c t sut sinh li cao v vic tun th tin huy ng vn thc hin d n
to kh nng tng trng tt cho Doanh nghip.
13
CTCP XNK Thy Sn An Giang
AGF
Vn iu l
128.59 t
TSC khuyn ngh

Mc ri ro
Mua u c
Thp
Mua
Va
Mua thm
Cao
Gi
Bn
170
AGF (95.5000, 96.5000, 95.5000, 96.0000, +1.50000)
165
Thng s th trng
Gi hin ti
95.000
Vn ha th trng
Gi cao nht 52 tun
Gi thp nht 52 tun
C tc 2006
EPS
P/E
P/B
EPS k vng 2007
H s Beta
1.235 t
155.000
93.000
1.200
3.534
16.12
4.084
5.113
0.217
160
155
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
Thng s trong ngnh

SL sut khu 2006
KN xut khu 2006
Din tch nui trng (APPU)
SL nui trng
60
NA
19.121 tn
54.58tr.USD
80 ha
60.000 tn
10000
5000
Septem ber
October
November
Decem ber
2007
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
Septem ber
nh gi chung
Th trng:
L mt trong nhng DN i tin phong sn xut-ch
bin v xut khu c tra-basa, Agifish gp khng
t kh khn khi b p mc thu CBPG cao ti th
trng M.
Sau thi gian chuyn hng th trng, cng ty
thc hin a dng ha, pht trin mnh sang th
trng Chu u v Nga, y l nhng th trng c
tc tng trng mnh. c bit, Ty u l th
trng tng trng kh n nh vi nhng tiu
chun kht khe, tuy nhin vic qu tp trung vo th
trng ny c kh nng to ri ro tim n cho
doanh nghip.
thc c s cnh tranh ngy cng gay gt trong
ngnh, v s ra i ca nhiu nh my-cng ty ch
bin c tra-basa; cng ty thc hin u t m rng
sn xut cng nh i mi cng ngh; iu ny s
gip cng ty duy tr v th trong ngnh.
Cng ty dn chuyn hng a dng ha ngnh
ngh, tuy nhin vic ny c thc hin kh thn
trng vi nhng ngnh ngh cng ty c kinh
nghim v thi gian nghin cu.
i ng lnh o ca cng ty l nhng ngi c

nhiu kinh nghim v uy tn trong ngnh ngh.
T trng th trng 2006 theo KNXK

Chu , 10%
Australia,
10%
ng u v
Nga, 11%
Nam M, 2%
Trung
ng, 1% Chu Phi,
1%
Ty u, 65%
Cc d n u t then cht:
Nm 2006, cng ty hon thnh cc d n:
Hon thnh v a vo s dng XNL AGF 9 sau hn 06 thng u t cng vi kho
ng lnh 3000 tn s dng nhng cng ngh hin i.
Lm Showroom v ca hng kinh doanh hng GTGT ti 40 Nguyn Thi Bnh
Nm 2007, Cng ty tip tc thc hin cc d n u t:
u t ci to, nng cp XNL AGF 8 nng cng sut nng lc ch bin-xut
khu
u t vo cng ty con : Cng ty c phn u t v xy dng AGF hot ng trong 4
lnh vc: Xy dng dn dng v xy dng cng nghip, giao thong, c kh, in lnh,
sn xut thc n gia sc v u t ti chnh.
H thng qun l:
Hi ng qun tr ca cng ty hin c 11 thnh vin: Trong ng Ng Phc Hu l Ch
tch kim TG v l Ph ch tch Hip hi Vasep;ng Nguyn nh Hun l Ph Ch tch
kim P.TG cng ty.
Ban Gim c gm 4 thnh vin u l cc thnh vin thuc Hi ng Qun tr.
14

Doanh thu thun
Gi vn hng bn
Li nhun gp
T sut li nhun gp
Thu nhp khc
Chi ph bn hng
Chi ph hot ng khc
Li nhun trc thu
Thu thu nhp
Li nhun sau thu
Li nhun gi li
C phn thng
S lng c phn cui k
T l chi tr c tc
2003
490,862,000
(417,979,000)
72,883,000
14.8%
625,000
(32,542,000)
(15,475,000)
0
25,491,000
1,576,000
(4,834,000)
(3,258,000)
22,233,000
0
0.0%
22,233,000
0
22,233,000
2004
883,400,000
(794,110,000)
89,290,000
10.1%
1,310,000
(49,553,000)
(11,568,000)
(266,000)
29,213,000
3,414,000
(11,946,000)
(8,532,000)
20,681,000
2,584,000
12.5%
18,097,000
0
18,097,000
2005
786,182,000
(680,791,000)
105,391,000
13.4%
1,879,000
(55,889,000)
(19,018,000)
(2,294,000)
30,069,000
2,906,000
(7,425,000)
(4,519,000)
25,550,000
3,194,000
12.5%
22,356,000
0
22,356,000
2006
1,190,905,771
(1,047,145,309)
143,760,462
12.1%
1,957,621
(75,534,262)
(15,886,837)
(2,179,126)
52,117,858
5,453,138
(6,828,739)
(1,375,601)
50,742,257
4,054,285
8.0%
46,687,972
1,200
37,222,878
2007E
1,436,480,150
(1,246,217,385)
190,262,765
13.2%
2,055,502
(91,216,490)
(21,116,258)
(400,000)
79,585,520
7,453,138
(13,990,008)
(6,536,870)
73,048,650
7,304,865
10.0%
65,743,785
1,200
53,295,602
2008E
1,785,602,294
(1,543,014,373)
242,587,921
13.6%
2,158,277
(112,492,945)
(25,891,233)
(420,000)
105,942,020
7,825,795
(14,590,008)
(6,764,213)
99,177,807
19,835,561
20.0%
79,342,246
1,600
58,767,216
2009E
2,094,273,183
(1,807,020,798)
287,252,385
13.7%
2,266,191
(129,844,937)
(29,319,825)
(441,000)
129,912,815
8,217,085
(15,190,008)
(6,972,923)
122,939,892
24,587,978
20.0%
98,351,913
1,500
79,062,822
3,912,580
3,783,530
5,876
0.00%
3,981,330
4,179,130
4,330
0.00%
4,179,130
4,179,130
5,349
0.00%
6,033,354
7,887,578
5,919
1,200
20.27%
10,373,486
12,859,394
5,113
1,200
23.47%
12,859,394
12,859,394
6,170
1,600
25.93%
12,859,394
12,859,394
7,648
1,500
19.61%
Cc y u t
nhn nh:
D bo doanh thu:
- Sau khi hon thnh d n xy dng nh my ng lnh AGF9; kho lnh 3000 tn v m rng XNCB AGF 360
( nh my sn xut sn phm GTGT) nm 2006, nm 2007 cng ty tip tc thc hin d n sa cha v ci
to nh my ng lnh AGF8 d kin c thc hin t qu 2/2007; do cng ty phi n lc t cng sut
200 tn nguyn liu/ngy trong nm 2007. Cng vi vic pht hnh tng vn thnh cng v kinh nghim c
trong vic xy dng nh my AGF9, chng ti cho rng AGF s nhanh chng hon thnh v a AGF 8 vo
hot ng tr li vo cui nm 2007.
- Mc d phn no b nh hng bi th trng Nga; th trng EU ( th trng chnh ca cng ty) vn t tc
tng trng tt trong khi doanh nghip c uy tn trn th trng ; cng ty c sn phm GTGT v bc u
c th trng trong nc .
- VIc nui trng c tra-basa pht trin mnh ti BSCL v lin hip c sch i vo n nh, chng ti cho rng
hot ng cung cp hng ha: thuc th y, thc n thy sn,... tip tc t tc tng trng 15-20%/nm.
Trn cc c s trn, chng ti d bo co yu t cc h tiu hot ng kinh doanh ca cng ty nh sau:
Ch tiu
Sn lng xut khu (tn)
Sn lng tiu th ni a (tn)
Doanh thu ni a (t ng)
Tng trng doanh thu cung cp Hng ha
Doanh thu hng ha
S dng PP DCF
Gi tr Cng ty
Vay n (di hn) cui nm 2006
Gi ( '000/cp)
2007
24,000
1,114
3,000
62.88
20%
254.36
(32,674,378)
1,148,013,647
12,961,402
1,128,300,671
6,678,521
1,121,622,150
87.22

98,351,913
16.00
1,573,630,613
1,093,863,303
Gi ( '000/cp)
- CPBH v CPQL: CPBH c d bo gim nh qua cc nm do sn

lng tng, CPQL c gi n nh mc 1.4%-1.5%
2007
2009 Ch tiu
2008
2009
35,000
GVHB/DT(tng)
86.75% 86.41%
86.28%
1,624
Thnh phm
84.50% 84.30%
84.20%
6,000
Hng ha
98.0% 98.0%
98.0%
125.76
CPBH/DT
6.35% 6.30%
6.20%
15% CPQL/DT
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
336.39
664,672,828.57
3.21
2,133,599,779.73
1,483,109,494.88
Gi ( '000/cp)
115.33
2008
30,000
1,392
4,500
94.32
15%
292.51

Thu nhp rng nm 2009E
C cu chi ph
- GVHB: Vi vic xy dng AGF 9 v ci to AGF 8, v trang b my
mc thit b mi, vic kim sot v tit kim chi ph trong qu trnh sn
xut hiu qu hn s gp phn gip doanh nghip kim sot tt hn
chi ph GVHB.
Gi ( '000/cp)
16.00
3.36
122.37
88.42
85.06
C s nh gi:
12.89%
7.00%
12,859,394
Gi tham kho
95.464
AGF l DN duy nht c th t ch tng i ngun nguyn liu c cht lng cao-hn ch ri ro bin ng gi. Thng hiu v v th trong ngnh ca DN
kh vng chc, mc d cnh tranh gia cc DN ngy cng gay gt; nh hng pht trin a dng ha ngnh ngh mt cch cn trng khng t nh mt s
DN c kh nng to pht trin mi cho DN, hn ch ri ro ngnh.
15
CTCP Thc Phm Sao Ta
FMC
Vn iu l
69 t ng
TSC khuyn ngh

Mc ri ro
Mua u c
Thp
Mua
Va
Mua thm
Cao
Gi
Bn
FMC (53.5000, 54.0000, 53.0000, 53.5000, -1.50000)
Thng s th trng
Gi hin ti
Vn ha th trng
Gi cao nht 52 tun
Gi thp nht 52 tun
C tc 2006
EPS
P/E
P/B
EPS k vng 2007
H s Beta
125
120
115
55.500
382.95 t
115.000
48.000
2.00
4.576
12.13
3.37
3.298
0.781
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
Thng s trong ngnh

SL sut khu 2006
KN xut khu 2006
Din tch nui trng
SL nui trng
45
NA
5.274 tn
55.37tr.USD
0
0
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
7
2006
18
25
2 8
2007
15
22
29
5
12 26 5
12
February
March
19
26
2
9
April
16
23
7
May
14
21
28
4
11
June
18
25
2
9
July
16
23
30 6
13
August
20
27
4 10 17
September
24
nh gi chung
Sn phm:
C cu s n phm nm
C th ni Fimex l Doanh nghip tin phong ca Vit

Nam v sn xut tm GTGT, v cho n nay y vn
l nhng mt hng ch lc ca Doanh nghip vi t
trng ngy cng tng (88% nm 2006 so vi 82% nm
2005).
8.51%
12.44%
2005
37.02%
Tm ti
Tm Nobashi
Tm tm bt
Tm hp
Tm khc
14.90%
27.13%
Th trng:
C cu th tr ng nm 2005
Do th trng tiu th ch yu ca DN l th trng:

M v Nht Bn. Trong khi c hai th trng ny u
gp tr ngi: M p thu CBPG, Nht tng cng vn
VSATTP v c tc tng trng chm nn y l
nhng yu t tc ng mnh n hot ng DN.
Trc nhng kh khn ca th trng xut khu Tm,

to hng pht trin mi, Fimex a ra k hoch
u t vi sn phm mi: nng sn v sn xut c trabasa.
Do nhiu nm kinh doanh ti th trng Nht, vi
nhng hiu bit ti th trng ny kh nng DN c th
thc hin d n xut khu nng sn. Tuy nhin c hai
d n trn u l nhng sn phm mi i vi DN
3.50%
5.70%
Nht Bn
Hoa K
EU
Cc nc khc
38.10%
52.70%
Cc d n u t then cht:
Trong giai on 2007-2008, cng ty c k hoch thc hin cc d n sau:
T chc gieo trng-xut khu nng sn th trng ch yu l Nht Bn v i Loan,
cng sut d kin 10.000 tn vi tng vn u t 40-80 t ng, thi gian thu hi vn
4-5 nm.
T chc nui, ch bin, xut khu c tra-basa, cng sut 200 tn nguyn liu/ngy vi
kinh ph u t 100 t ng, thi gian thu hi vn 4-5 nm.
Vi gii php t chc: Hp tc vi TCty Thng Mi Si Gn v VP Tnh y Sc Trng
nhm tranh th th mnh ca cc bn, chi ph pha FMC khong 40-50%
16

Doanh thu thun
Gi vn hng bn
Li nhun gp
T sut li nhun gp
Thu nhp khc
Chi ph bn hng
Chi ph hot ng khc
Li nhun trc thu
Thu thu nhp
Li nhun sau thu
Li nhun gi li
C phn thng
S lng c phn cui k
T l chi tr c tc
2003
1,152,599,897
(1,077,910,060)
74,689,837
6.5%
660,113
(32,408,958)
(3,297,870)
(377,638)
39,265,484
2,729,334
(8,737,877)
(6,008,543)
33,256,941
0
0.0%
33,256,941
0
33,256,941
2004
1,303,926,181
(1,224,139,860)
79,786,321
6.1%
4,200,651
(35,245,641)
(9,876,668)
(335,516)
38,529,147
3,874,095
(12,653,042)
(8,778,947)
29,750,200
0
0.0%
29,750,200
0
29,750,200
2005
970,806,618
(888,365,767)
82,440,851
8.5%
703,748
(35,969,843)
(8,993,415)
(163,058)
38,018,283
1,011,395
(9,363,018)
(8,351,623)
29,666,660
0
0.0%
29,666,660
0
29,666,660
2006
925,197,009
(846,115,985)
79,081,024
8.5%
3,799,816
(35,613,590)
(9,685,007)
(224,748)
37,357,495
1,069,486
(6,532,595)
(5,463,109)
31,894,386
313,745
1.0%
31,580,641
2,500
16,580,641
2007E
971,456,859
(897,140,410)
74,316,450
7.7%
4,179,798
(35,943,904)
(9,714,569)
(247,223)
32,590,552
1,122,960
(9,980,764)
(8,857,803)
23,732,749
978,976
4.1%
22,753,773
1,000
16,303,773
2008E
1,029,744,271
(950,968,834)
78,775,437
7.7%
4,597,777
(38,100,538)
(10,297,443)
(271,945)
34,703,288
1,179,108
(9,980,764)
(8,801,655)
25,901,633
1,068,442
4.1%
24,833,191
1,000
17,933,191
2009E
1,091,528,927
(1,008,026,964)
83,501,963
7.7%
5,057,555
(40,386,570)
(11,085,585)
(299,140)
36,788,223
1,238,064
(9,980,764)
(8,742,700)
28,045,523
1,156,878
4.1%
26,888,645
1,000
19,988,645
5,200,000
10,400,000
3,198
0.00%
8,200,000
6,000,000
4,958
0.00%
6,000,000
6,000,000
4,944
0.00%
6,000,000
6,000,000
5,263
2,500
47.50%
6,450,000
6,900,000
3,298
1,000
30.32%
6,900,000
6,900,000
3,599
1,000
27.79%
6,900,000
6,900,000
3,897
1,000
25.66%
Cc y u t
nhn nh:
D bo doanh thu:
- thc hin chin lc pht trin di hn, nm 2007 cng ty d kin a vo thc hin hai d n u t:
D n gieo trng v ch bin xut khu nng sn: cng sut 10.000 tn thnh phm/nm xut ch yu
sang th trng Nht v i Loan. D kin nh xng ch bin hon thin vo cui nm 2007
D n nui trng ch bin xut khu c tra: cng sut 200 tn nguyn liu/ngy, d kin hon thin nh
xng vo gia nm 2008.
Hai d n ca cng ty d kin hp tc vi Satra v Tnh u Bn Tre, trong Fimex ng gp 40-50% tng
u t, ngun vn thc hin d n d kin thng qua pht hnh tng vn 20 t thc hin vo qu 1/2007. Tuy
nhin, cho n thi im bo co qu 2 ca cng ty chng ti vn cha thc hin tng vn, nh vy d n c
th chm hn d kin, bn cnh hai d n ny u l nhng sn phm mi i vi Fimex do vy cn ch
i khi d n chnh thc i vo hot ng xc nh hiu qu mang li. Chnh v vy, chng ti nh gi
da trn kh nng tng trng ca hot ng chnh ca DN l ch bin-xut khu tm s.
- Vi nhng kh khn t th trng Nht( th trung chnh ca cng ty) cng nh tc tng trung
chm t th trung ny nh chng ti phn tch, v cn c vo tnh hnh xut khu thc t 6 thng
u nm 2006, chng ti d bo tc tng trung doanh thu ca cng ty nh sau:
S dng PP DCF
Gi tr Cng ty
Gi ( '000/cp)
74,767,455
298,365,132
7,697,981
380,830,567
380,830,567
55.19

26,888,645
16.00
430,218,321
294,239,732
Gi ( '000/cp)
C s nh gi:
Ch tiu
2007
Tc tng trng doanh thu 5.0%
Doanh thu (t ng)
971.46
2008
6.0%
1029.74
2009
6.0%
1091.53
C cu chi ph
- Do kh khn do ngun nguyn liu tm s hn ch, gi c nguyn liu tng
mnh nhng thng u nm 200, Ch ph nguyn liu ca cng ty c xu
hng tng; tuy nhin do sn phm ca cng ty ch yu l sn phm GTGT,
loi sn phm ny tip tc c y mnh, do vy cng ty c th gi c
mc CPGVHB mc 92.4%/Doanh thu.
- CPBH v CPQL: Vi hot ng truyn thng i vo n nh nhng nm
qua, cng ty c th kim sot chi ph mc: 3.7%/Doanh thu i vi CPBH
v 1%/Doanh thu i vi CPQL.

Gi tr k ton vn ch s hu nm 0
Gi tr th trng vn c ng nm 0
Gi ( '000/cp)
158,624,717.67
3.21
509,185,343.73
348,247,742.60
50.47

16.00
2.34
62.35
Gi ( '000/cp)
44.98
42.64

13.50%
5.00%
6,900,000
Gi tham kho
49.225
Trc nhng kh khn ca ngnh trong nm 2007, kh nng cng ty kh t c mc tng trng nh k hoch ra. Trong khi 2 d n (nng sn xut
khu v nui trng-ch bin c tra-basa) vn cha c y mnh, vic tng vn thc hin d n cng cha c thc hin, do vy nhiu kh nng hai d
n ny s ko di; ngoi ra nu c thc hin hiu qu d n cn phi ch i do y l nhng sn phm mi i vi doanh nghip.
17
CTCP Thy Sn S 1
SJ1
Vn iu l
35 t ng
TSC khuyn ngh

Mc ri ro
Mua u c
Thp
Mua
Va
Mua thm
Cao
Gi
Bn
``
SJ1 (39.7000, 41.0000, 39.7000, 40.5000, -1.00000)
Thng s th trng
Gi hin ti
Vn ha th trng
Gi cao nht 52 tun
Gi thp nht 52 tun
C tc 2006
EPS
P/E
P/B
EPS k vng 2007
H s bta
42.100
84.2 t
64.000
34.000
1600
2.847
14.78
2.81
1.870
0.797
Thng s trong ngnh

SL sut khu 2006
KN xut khu 2006
Din tch nui trng
SL nui trng
NA
NA
8.07tr.USD
0
0
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58
57
56
55
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
29 8
2006
15
22
29
5
12 26
5
February
March
12
19
26
2
9
April
16
23
7
May
14
21
28
4
11
June
18
25
2
9
July
16
23
30
6
August
13
20
27
4
10
17
September
24
nh gi chung
Sn phm:
Sn phm ca cng ty kh a dng so vi cc doanh
nghip xut khu thy sn, p ng c nhu cu ca
hu ht cc th trng ln: Nht, EU. Cng ty hng
ti pht trin cc sn phm GTGT, nng cao cht
lng cao sn lng bng cch nng cao v kim sot
cht lng nguyn liu u vo.
C cu sn phm 2005
38.95%
T m
C
21.65%
M c
Nhuyn Th
8.48%
10.06%
19.77%
Gh
Khc
1.09%
Th trng:
Mc d l Doanh nghip nh, song cng ty vn c
c nhng th trng tiu th ln: Chu u, Nht,
M; c bit vi s xm nhp cc h thng siu th,
h thng ca hng Lotteria cng ty c c th
trng ni a iu ny cho thy Doanh nghip c uy
tn nht nh trn th trng.
C cu th trng 2006
5.92%
6.30%
0.08%
32.26%
Chu u
Nht
Ni a
Th trng khc
M
55.44%
D n u t di di nh my:
D n mi ca cng ty c quy m v cng sut nh
ch yu thay th nh my c vi thit b my mc
lc hu. Vi nh my mi DN d kin tip tc duy tr
th mnh l cc sn phm GTGT a dng.
Nhu vy, mc d thc hin u u t mi nhng
Doanh nghip kh c kh nng tng trng mnh.
Do nh my hin ti nm trong din di di nn cng ty d kin di di nh my ra KCN Tn

Ph Trung:
Tng vn u t: 50 t ng.
Cng sut: 3.000 tn sn phm/nm
Li nhun bnh qun: 8-10 t ng/nm
Thi gian thu hi vn: 5-6 nm
18

Doanh thu thun
Gi vn hng bn
Li nhun gp
T sut li nhun gp
Thu nhp khc
Chi ph bn hng
Chi ph hot ng khc
Li nhun trc thu
Thu thu nhp
Li nhun sau thu
Li nhun gi li
C phn thng
S lng c phn cui k
T l chi tr c tc
2003
108,210,780
(96,778,363)
11,432,417
10.6%
190,000
(4,489,918)
(1,663,050)
(77,481)
5,391,968
319,638
(61,316)
258,322
5,650,290
711,914
12.6%
4,938,376
0
4,938,376
2004
115,852,070
(104,167,953)
11,684,117
10.1%
214,163
(4,570,563)
(1,657,687)
(334,413)
5,335,617
272,809
(97,718)
175,091
5,510,708
562,355
10.2%
4,948,353
0
4,948,353
2005
130,781,171
(117,878,253)
12,902,918
9.9%
161,189
(5,388,665)
(1,864,243)
(341)
5,810,858
146,262
(59,757)
86,505
5,897,363
588,680
10.0%
5,308,683
0
5,308,683
2006
147,894,505
(134,499,711)
13,394,794
9.1%
1,247,208
(6,321,004)
(2,094,279)
(4,000)
6,222,719
134,048
(62,313)
71,735
6,294,454
598,963
9.5%
5,695,491
1,600
2,601,843
2007E
140,499,780
(124,904,304)
15,595,476
11.1%
1,309,568
(6,603,490)
(2,809,996)
(400,000)
7,091,559
184,373
(4,242)
180,131
7,271,690
727,169
10.0%
6,544,521
1,600
2,250,873
2008E
154,549,758
(137,240,185)
17,309,573
11.2%
1,375,047
(7,263,839)
(3,090,995)
(420,000)
7,909,786
193,592
(4,242)
189,350
8,099,136
809,914
10.0%
7,289,222
1,600
1,795,574
2009E
200,914,685
(178,211,326)
22,703,359
11.3%
1,443,799
(9,442,990)
(3,415,550)
(441,000)
10,847,619
203,271
(4,242)
199,029
11,046,648
1,104,665
10.0%
9,941,983
1,600
4,448,335
931,791
1,863,581
2,650
0.00%
1,863,581
1,863,581
2,655
0.00%
1,856,756
1,849,931
2,870
0.00%
1,891,731
1,933,530
2,946
1,600
54.32%
2,683,530
3,433,530
1,906
1,600
83.94%
3,433,530
3,433,530
2,123
1,600
75.37%
3,433,530
3,433,530
2,896
1,600
55.26%
Cc y u t
nhn nh:
D bo doanh thu:
- Do c s sn xut ti 536 u C my mc thit b lc hu v nm trong din di di gii ta, cng ty d
kin nh my mi ti KCN Tn Ph Trung vi tng vn u t d kin 50 t ng; cng sut 3000 tn sn
phm/nm em li mc doanh thu bnh qun: 275 t/nm v mc li nhun bnh qun 8-10 t/nm.
- Theo thng tin t pha doanh nghip, chng ti c bit d n s c thc hin vo cui nm 2007
hoc mun nht l u nm 2008, thi gian xy dng l 6 thng, nh vy tr nht l qu 3/2008 nh my
chnh thc hot ng. Trong qu trnh thc hin, cng ty vn duy tr hot ng ti nh my c
Cn c nhng thng tin trn, v vi tnh hnh hot ng ca DN, chng ti d bo cc ch tiu lin quan n
hot ng kinh doanh giai on 2007-2009 ca cng ty nh sau:
C cu chi ph
- GVHB: Vi vic a vo hot ng mt nh my mi vi my mc v thit
b hin i hn rng chi ph sn xut ca cng ty c kh nng hn ch do
gim c hao ht trong qu trnh ch bin, mc d chi phi khu hao c th
tng, nhng vi vic tp trung sn xut cc sn phm ch bin GTGT, Chi
ph GVHB ca Doanh nghip c kh nng gim nh v i vo n nh t
nm 2009.
- CPQL v CPBH: d bo tng nm 2007, 2008 do phi va thc hin d
n va duy tr hot ng nh my c, tuy nhin mc chi ph ny c kh nng
gim nh t nm 2009 do tc tng trung doanh thu cao.
Ch tiu
Doanh thu (t ng)
Ch tiu
GVHB/DT
CPBH&QL/DT
S dng PP DCF
Gi tr Cng ty
Gi ( '000/cp)
2007
-5.0%
140.50
2008
10.0%
154.55
2009
30.0%
200.91
9,941,983
16.00
159,071,730
112,322,864
Gi ( '000/cp)
2008
88.80%
6.70%

Gi ( '000/cp)
18,391,711
85,348,467
(9,733,959)
94,006,219
63,314
93,942,905
27.36

2007
88.90%
6.70%
32.71
2009
88.70%
6.40%
51,277,111.13
3.21
164,599,526.72
116,226,122.03
33.85

16.00
3.82
46.33
Gi ( '000/cp)
36.54
C s nh gi:

12.30%
Gi tham kho
6.00%
33.358
3,433,530
Seajoco l Doanh nghip c quy m nh trong ngnh li khu vc khng c ngun nguyn liu nn kh nng ch ng ngun nguyn liu kh khn hn.Tuy
vy, Doanh nghip sn xut a dng sn phm v ch yu l mt hng GTGT v c c li th nht nh, c bit sn phm c mt ti cc siu th Big
C, Metro, v h thng Lotteria. Do vy, trong thi gian di di nh my cng ty ch duy tr hot ng v hiu qu kinh doanh m kh c kh nng tng trng,
nhng sau khi thc hin xy dng nh my mi i vo n nh cng ty vn c kh nng tng trng mc trung bnh.
19
CTCP Thy Sn Nam Vit
NVC
Vn iu l
660 t ng
Thng s th trng
Gi hin ti
Vn ha th trng
Gi cao nht 52 tun
Gi thp nht 52 tun
C tc 2006
EPS 2006
P/E 2006
P/B 2006
EPS k vng 2007
Thng s trong ngnh
SL sut khu 2006
KN xut khu 2006
Din tch nui trng
SL nui trng
113.234
7.473 t
140.000
95.000
TSC khuyn ngh

Mc ri ro
Mua u c
Thp
Mua
Va
Mua thm
Cao
Gi
Bn
Din bin gi c phiu:

o
o
o
6.773
o
500t.NL/ngy
Na
159.52T.USD
NA
NA
Ti thi im th trng nng u nm 2007, gi c phiu Nam Vit giao dch

trn th trng OTC giao ng: 130.000-142.000 ng/cp
Ngy 21/6/2007 cng ty c phn Thy Sn Nam Vit thc hin bn u gi
6.000.000 c phn ra cng chng ti TTGDCK TP.HCM. Kt qu: gi trng
bnh qun l 113.234 ng/c phn, gi trng cao nht t 172.000 ng/c
phn, gi trng thp nht l 111.000 ng c phn.
Theo k hoch th cng ty s thc hin nim yt c phiu trn S Giao Dch
Chng Khon TP.HCM vo u thng 11 nm 2007 vi gi d kin ln sn l
120.000 ng/c phn.
Hin ti, gi giao dch trn th trng OTC ca c phiu cng ty Thy Sn Nam
Vit dao ng t 110.000-120.000 ng c phn
nh gi chung
Th trng:
Th trng tiu th ca cng ty c s dch chuyn
mnh m k t khi c v kin bn ph gi c tra, c
basa M n nay. Navico ch ng m rng th
trng xut khu sang chu u, Nga, Trung Quc,
c v hn 40 nc trn th gii.
Trong th trng EU v Nga gi vai tr quan
trng, chim hn 50% th phn v c tc tng
trng kh cao nh c c i l c quyn phn
phi sn phm ti th trng tiu th chnh .
Nm
Th trng
2005
2006
T trng v doanh thu
Chu u
40.46%
57.68%
Chu
37.86%
31.54%
Chu M
14.90%
7.72%
Trung ng
1.57%
1.96%
Chu c
5.21%
1.04%
0%
0.06%
Chu Phi
Cc d n then cht :
L Doanh nghip xut khu c tra-basa c sn lng
ln nht hin nay, vic huy ng vn thnh cng
cho d n nh my n Dng s gp phn nng
tng cng sut ca Doanh nghip t 500 t tn
NL/ngy.
y l s chun b DN tip tc nng cao nng
lc sn xut p ng nhu cu tiu th ca th trng
Chu u v pht trin sang th trng Trung Quc.
Tin thn l mt Doanh nghip TNHH, do vy c

cu lnh o ca DN vn ch yu l cc thnh vin
trong gia nh ng Don Ti vi t l nm gi chi
phi; iu ny c th gy lo lng cho cc c ng
khi kh c kh nng tc ng mnh n hot ng
ca cng ty.
Cui thng 06/2007 cng ty huy ng thnh cng gn 680 t ng thng qua vic pht
hnh ra bn ngoi 60 t ng nhm thc hin d n xy dng nh my ch bin c-tra basa
n Dng:
Tng cng sut nh my: 234 tn sn phm/ngy (tng ng 73.000 tn sn
phm/nm)
K hoch trin khai d n: Qu II/2007
Nng sut sn xut d kin :60% cho nm u tin, tng trng 5% lin tc cho n nm
th 7 v n nh sn xut vi 90-100% cng sut thit k
H thng qun l:
Hi ng qun tr gm 8 thnh vin: ng Don Ti l Ch Tch kim TG Cng ty nm gi
29.50 triu c phiu (45.38% vn iu l) ngoi ra hai thnh vin trong gia nh ng Don
Ti nm trong HQT l B Dng Th Kim Hng ( kim Ph TG) v ng Dan Chn
Thanh nm tng cng 30 triu c phiu (45.45% Vn iu l).
20

2003
Doanh thu thun
405,231,728
Gi vn hng bn
(348,643,503)
Li nhun gp
56,588,225
T sut li nhun gp
14.0%
Thu nhp khc
893,343
Chi ph bn hng
(37,851,614)
(1,675,178)
Chi ph hot ng khc
(3,443,019)
14,511,757
2,702,995
(10,500,345)
(7,797,350)
Li nhun trc thu
6,714,407
Thu thu nhp
908,644
Thu thu nhp trc cc kho
13.5%
Li nhun sau thu
5,805,763
C tc phi tr trn mi c phi
0
Li nhun gi li
5,805,763
C phn thng
S lng c phn cui k
T l chi tr c tc
2,700,000
5,400,000
1,075
0.00%
2004
1,004,170,111
(873,411,629)
130,758,482
13.0%
4,003,048
(58,534,188)
(11,470,798)
(5,399,834)
59,356,710
5,199,006
(16,421,825)
(11,222,819)
48,133,891
1,496,763
3.1%
46,637,128
0
46,637,128
2005
1,212,316,233
(1,015,837,354)
196,478,879
16.2%
12,753,282
(92,435,744)
(12,231,861)
(11,526,512)
93,038,044
9,335,252
(28,592,589)
(19,257,337)
73,780,707
1,371,214
1.9%
72,409,493
0
72,409,493
2006
2,707,076,201
(2,160,640,409)
546,435,792
20.2%
51,891,716
(217,763,890)
(29,338,140)
(48,812,321)
302,413,157
15,515,268
(39,985,715)
(24,470,447)
277,942,710
11,642,665
4.2%
266,300,045
0
266,300,045
2007E
4,406,402,345
(3,507,496,267)
898,906,078
20.4%
54,486,302
(383,357,004)
(44,064,023)
(48,812,321)
477,159,032
37,175,552
(31,074,905)
6,100,648
483,259,679
36,244,476
7.5%
447,015,203
2,000
321,015,203
2008E
6,362,567,465
(5,055,059,851)
1,307,507,614
20.6%
57,210,617
(534,455,667)
(63,625,675)
(48,812,321)
717,824,568
53,627,398
(31,074,905)
22,552,494
740,377,062
111,056,559
15.0%
629,320,503
2,000
497,320,503
2009E
8,481,746,345
(6,742,988,345)
1,738,758,001
20.5%
60,071,148
(695,503,200)
(76,335,717)
(48,812,321)
978,177,910
42,622,819
(31,074,905)
11,547,914
989,725,824
148,458,874
15.0%
841,266,950
2,000
709,266,950
5,850,000
6,300,000
7,403
0.00%
6,300,000
6,300,000
11,494
0.00%
33,150,000
60,000,000
4,438
0.00%
63,000,000
66,000,000
6,773
2,000
29.53%
66,000,000
66,000,000
9,535
2,000
20.98%
66,000,000
66,000,000
12,746
2,000
15.69%
Cc y u t
nhn nh:
D bo doanh thu:
- Hin nay Nam Vit l doanh nghip ch bin c tra xut khu c sn lng ln nht vi hai nh my: Nam
Vit v Thi Bnh Dng c tng cng sut ln n 500 tn nguyn liu/ngy. Nh my Thi Bnh Dng mi
i vo hot ng nm 2006 , bn cnh cng ty cn c mt cng ty con ( Nam Vit u t 100% vn) vi
nh my i Ty Dng cng sut 400 tn nguyn liu/ngy.
_ Qu 2 va qua. DN pht hnh thnh cng 60 t u t d n nh my ch bin c tra n Dng
vi cng sut 700 tn nguyn liu/ngy
- Trong tnh hnh nhu cu c tra-basa vn tip tc tng trong, DN sn sng cung cp sn lng xut khu
ln; theo bo co ca vasep, mc d chu nh hng ca th trng Nga 6 thng u nm 2007 cng ty xut
khu 41.750 tn c tra-basa thnh phm vi kim ngch xut khu 96.5 triu USD.
Nh vy, cn c tnh hnh xut khu thc t ca Doanh nghip, kh nng tng trung ca cc th trng tiu
th cng nh cn c vo cc d n trong trng hp c thc hin ng tin , chng ti d bo cc ch
tiu hot ng ca Doanh nghip nh sau:
C cu chi ph
- GVHB: So vi cc doanh nghip ch bin c tra-basa, sn lng
ch bin ca cng ty ln nn chi ph sn xut tnh trn mt n v
sn phm thp; bn cnh vic sn xut tiu th cc sn phm ph
phm nh: bt c, du c ; v vic u tu xy dng mt nh my insn xut bao b ring cho sn phm ca cng ty gp phn lm gim
gi thnh sn phm. V vy cng ty c kh nng duy tr GVHB hng
nm mc: 79.6%-79.5%/Doanh thu
- CPBH v CPQL: Do tc tng trung doanh thu c d bo trn
c s cc d n ca cng ty tng kh mnh, trong khi tc tng
CPBH v CPQL thng thp hn tc tng doanh thu; d bo t
trng CPHB v CPQL/Doanh thu ca cng ty c kh nng gim.
Ch tiu
Ch tiu
2007
Sn lng xut khu (tn)
98,357
2008
142,022
2009
189,325
GVHB/DT
2007
2008
2009
79.60%
79.45%
79.50%
3,525
5,090
6,785
CPBH/DT
8.70%
8.40%
8.20%
Tng doanh thu
4,406
6,363
8,482
CPQL/DT
1.00%
1.00%
0.90%
62.8%
44.4%
S dng PP DCF
Gi tr Cng ty
Gi ( '000/cp)
352,519,311
6,165,602,067
85,386,137
6,603,507,515
56,228,374
6,547,279,141
99.20

841,266,950
16.00
13,460,271,208
9,216,027,338
Gi ( '000/cp)
33.3% 0

Gi ( '000/cp)
2,689,927,047.84
3.21
8,634,665,823.56
5,912,014,331.05
89.58

16.00
4.69
203.94
Gi ( '000/cp)
144.32
139.64
C s nh gi:
13.46%
Gi tham kho
9.00%
113.425
66,000,000
L Doanh nghip ch bin- xut khu c tra-basa ln nht hin nay, trong tnh hnh nhu cu tiu th c tra-basa Vit Nam trn th gii tip tc tng mnh,vi
sn lng ln, Nam Vit gn nh lun sn sng p ng nhu cu tiu th c tra-basa. Bn cnh vi vic xy dng c h thng phn phi c quyn qua
Seafood Connection ti EU, cng ty vn c kh nng pht trin tt ti th trng ny, vic m rng ra th trng Trung Quc s tip tc to tng trng cho
Doanh nghip do vy mc gi hin nay kh hp l cho u t trung-di hn. Mc d c nhng li th nht nh do l DN ln, th trng tng i a dng; Tuy
nhin vi mt DN c quy m ln nh Nam Vit, trong trng hp thiu nguyn liu, hoc b nh hng bi th trng nhp khu ln nh Nga, ri ro ca Doanh
nghip c th cao .
21
CTCP Thc Phm Vnh Hon
VHC
Vn iu l
300 t ng
Thng s th trng
Gi hin ti
Vn ha th trng
Gi cao nht 52 tun
Gi thp nht 52 tun
C tc 2006
EPS 2006
P/E 2006
P/B 2006
EPS k vng 2007
Thng s trong ngnh
SL sut khu 2006
KN xut khu 2006
Din tch nui trng
SL nui trng
TSC khuyn ngh

Mc ri ro
Mua u c
Thp
Mua
Va
Mua thm
Cao
Gi
Bn
50.000
1500t.ng
Din bin gi c phiu:

o
o
Giai on thng 06/2007 cng ty thc hin cho bn c phiu ring l vi mc gi

50.000 ng/cp.
Vnh Hon hin np y h s nim yt ln SGDCK v d kin ln sn vi gi
50.000 ng/cp
3.754
250t.NL/ngy
15.414 tn
50.29tr.USD
NA
NA
nh gi chung
Trong tnh hnh sn lng channel catfish ca

M c chiu hng gim trong nhng nm gn y
v nhu cu tiu th ti th trng M tip tc gi
cao, vic ch chu mc thu CBPG thp l mt li
th rt tt cho Vnh Hon; bi v vic M xem xt
gim thut CBPG cho VN s l rt kh khn.
Tuy nhin, sau thi gian pht trin mnh ti th
trng Chu u, nhiu DN vn mong mun tr li
th trng M ngay khi th trng ny thun li hn.
Vi tnh hnh cc nh my ch bin c tra-basa c

xy dng t trong giai on gn y, ngun
nguyn liu thiu v nhu cu thc n nui trng tng
mnh ;gi c khng n nh gy kh khn cho
nhiu DN. Do vy nu cc d n c thc hin :
ngun nguyn liu to s n nh cho DN; hiu qu
hot ng tng cao hn vi d n nh my thc n.
Mc d ang dn hng n hot ng chuyn

nghip, xong vic tng quy m vn qu nhanh t
17.3 t nm 2006 ln 300 t nm 2007 c th gy
kh khn cho hot ng qun tr.
Th trng:
Vnh Hon l mt trong nhng Doanh nghip i tin phong ch bin xut khu c tra-basa ca
Vit Nam cng vi Agifish, Nam Vit, v l mt trong nhng Doanh nghip hng u. Sau v
kin bn ph gi c tra-basa, trong khi cc DN u b nh thu cao th Vnh Hon c li th
vi mc thu ch vi 6.81% t thng 03/2006. Do vy nm 2006, Vnh Hon l DN xut khu c
tra-basa ln nht sang th trng M, theo chng ti c bit c cu xut khu ca DN nm
2006 nh sau:
M: 45.15%
EU: 33.25%
Hng Kng: 9.86%
Australia: 7.76%
Trong qu 1 nm 2007, t trng xut khu c khuynh hng tip tc tng ti M v gim ti EU.
Cc d n then cht:
Vnh Hon ang dn hng n mt quy trnh nui trng-ch bin xut khu c tra-basa vi cc
d n:
D n nui trng: Tri ging: 70 triu con/nm
Nui trng c tra vi din tch 140 ha, sn lng 50.000 tn nguyn
liu/nm.
D n nh my Thc n ( Hp tc vi i hc Nng Lm)
Da n m rng nh my ch bin
Bn cnh Vnh Hon cng quan tm ti vic xy dng nh my x l nc thi nhm m bo
mi trng cho hot ng ch bin.
Thng 01/2007, Cng ty thnh vlp Cng ty Vnh Hon Inc ti M h tr vic xut khu sang
th trng ny.
H thng qun l:
Qun l DN ang dn tin n m hnh chuyn nghip hn, ngoi vic m bo cc tiu chun
cht lng bt buc nhp khu vo th trng M, EU; cng ty cng thc hin xy dng
kh nng truy xut nm2007.
22

Doanh thu thun
Gi vn hng bn
Li nhun gp
T sut li nhun gp
Thu nhp khc
Chi ph bn hng
Chi ph hot ng khc
Li nhun trc thu
Thu thu nhp
Li nhun sau thu
Li nhun gi li
2004
0
0
#DIV/0!
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
#DIV/0!
0
0
0
C phn thng
S lng c phn cui k
T l chi tr c tc
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
2005
507,013,940
(465,608,858)
41,405,082
8.2%
4,076,306
(29,855,954)
(4,646,069)
(4,097,654)
6,881,711
802,796
(7,217,336)
(6,414,540)
467,171
46,717
10.0%
420,454
0
420,454
2006
1,516,245,169
(1,367,577,785)
148,667,384
9.8%
645,072
(39,990,342)
(10,098,262)
(3,975,437)
95,248,415
1,561,123
(9,272,353)
(7,711,230)
87,537,185
8,920,943
10.2%
78,616,242
0
78,616,242
2007E
1,656,422,947
(1,478,563,712)
177,859,235
10.7%
709,579
(41,410,574)
(11,594,961)
(4,372,981)
121,190,299
1,639,179
(5,362,265)
(3,723,086)
117,467,213
4,845,523
4.1%
112,621,691
2,000
80,891,691
2008E
1,912,662,389
(1,706,880,109)
205,782,280
10.8%
780,537
(47,816,560)
(11,475,974)
(4,810,279)
142,460,005
1,721,138
(3,574,844)
(1,853,705)
140,606,299
5,800,010
4.1%
134,806,289
2,000
74,806,289
2009E
2,274,458,867
(2,030,837,890)
243,620,977
10.7%
858,591
(56,861,472)
(13,646,753)
(5,291,307)
168,680,036
1,807,195
(3,574,844)
(1,767,649)
166,912,387
6,885,136
4.1%
160,027,251
2,000
100,027,251
865,000
1,730,000
243
0.00%
1,730,000
1,730,000
45,443
0.00%
15,865,000
30,000,000
3,754
2,000
53.28%
30,000,000
30,000,000
4,494
2,000
44.51%
30,000,000
30,000,000
5,334
2,000
37.49%
Cc y u t
nhn nh:
D bo doanh thu:
- Trong 2 nm 2005, 2006, Vnh Hon thc hin m rng hoat ng sn xut vi vic u t nng cp nh
my nng sn lng t 90 tn nguyn liu ngy ln 150 tn nguyn liu/ngy, v xy dng thm mt nh
my vi sn lng 80 tn nguyn liu/ngy a tng cng sut cng ty t 230 tn nguyn liu/ngy
- Nm 2007, theo chng ti c bit, cng nh nhiu cng ty hot ng trong ngnh ch bin xut khu
thu sn cng c d n: Xy dng vng nui trng khp kn t con ging cho n c tra nguyn liu cng
vi d n nh my ch bin thc n chn nui t cc ph phm c tra. v d n xy dng nh my ch
bin- xut khu mi. Tuy nhin nhng thng tin c th v hiu qu ca cc d n ny cha c th hin
r.
V vy, cn c trn sn lng hin ti ca cng ty, cng vi thun li ca cng ty trn th trung M v
mc thu CBPG thp so vi cc Doanh nghip trong ngnh, v tnh hnh tng trng tr li nhu cu
nhp khu-tiu th c tra-basa ca th trng M,chng ti a ra nhng d bo v cc h tiu hot ng
kinh doanh ca Doanh nghip nh sau:
Ch tiu
Sn lng xut khu (tn)
Doanh thu thnh phm (t ng)
Tc tng trng doanh thu hng ho
Doanh thu hng ha (t ng)
S dng PP DCF
Gi tr Cng ty
Gi ( '000/cp)
2007
19,000
985
10.0%
430.45
2008
22,000
1,140
15.0%
495.02
- CPBH v CPQL: CPBH c kh nng duy tr mc 3.1%-3.2%/Doanh thu.
2009 Ch tiu
26,000
GVHB/DT(tng)
1,348
Thnh phm
20.0% 0
Hng ha
594.02 CPQL v BH/DT
2007
86.75%
84.00%
99.2%
3.20%

Gi ( '000/cp)
63,445,641
837,858,603
9,167,779
910,472,023
14,450,898
896,021,125
29.87
160,027,251
16.00
2,560,436,021
1,753,151,067
Gi ( '000/cp)
C s nh gi:
C cu chi ph
- GVHB: Vi vic ci to m rng xy dng nh my nng cng sut-sn
lng ca cng ty, h thng my mc thit b c u t mi cng vi vic
tng sn lng xut khu kh nng chi ph sn xut/ n v sn phm ca
cng ty gim ko theo GVHB/DT ca cng ty c kh nng gim nm 2007 v
gi mc n nh nhng nm sau.
2008
86.41%
84.00%
99.2%
3.10%
2009
86.28%
84.00%
99.2%
3.10%
529,853,384.30
3.21
1,700,829,363.60
1,164,571,498.73
38.82

16.00
4.69
85.35
Gi ( '000/cp)
63.12
58.44

13.46%
Gi tham kho
8.00%
50.206
30,000,000
Mc d l mt trong nhng DN xut khu c tra-basa hng u, c tc tng trng Doanh thu, li nhun cao nm 2006 song iu ny c c ch yu do li
th t th thu CBPG thp ti th trng M, y vn l li th ca DN trong thi gian ti. Tuy nhin, vi s tng trng quy m nhanh chng, qun tr c th s
l vn ca DN.
23

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BO CO NGNH:

CH BIN XUT KHU

TNG QUAN THU SN VIT NAM

THU SN VIT NAM.

PHN KHC NGNH CH BIN

RO CN GIA NHP NGNH- MC

S LC TNH HNH XUT KHU

PHN TCH C PHIU THU SN

C PHIU CC CNG TY NGNH CH BIN-XUT KHU THY

- Nguyn Th Thu Tr

Khi Phn tch & u t

THU SN VIT NAM

chnh ca th gii: l quc gia ng th 5 v nui trng thy sn, cung cp

o Xut khu thu sn: 4 t USD.

Vit Nam l mt trong nhng nh sn xut v xut khu chnh thy sn

Kim ngch xut khu hng nm t trn 2 t USD vi mc tng trng

Ch vi sn lng chim bnh qun 18.4% tng sn lng thy sn (2001-

2006), nhng c tnh ch bin xut khu ng gp n 70% tng gi

Vi li th v nui trng ch bin xut khu thy sn Vit Nam vn tip tc

Cng ty Chng Khon Thng Long

V TH NGNH CH BIN-XUT KHU THY SN

% Tng trng sn lng xut khu

Cng ty Chng Khon Thng Long

% tng so vi cng k nm trc

Nhu cu thy sn th gii ngy

Vit Nam: Mt trong nhng nh sn xut thy sn chnh ca th gii.

Top 10 nh xut khu ln nht th gii

iu kin nui trng thun li

C IM NGNH CH BIN-XUT KHU THY SN

hi sn c pht trin hu nh ti cc a phng. Trong khi , hot ng nui trng thy sn

vi quy m ln tp trung ch yu ti khu vc ng Bng Sng Hng v ng Bng Sng Cu

Khai thc('000 tn)

lng th n nm 2006 t l ny t 46%.

ngy cng hn ch vi tc tng trng gim dn th nui trng thu sn vi thun li v kh

Nui trng('000 tn)

84.82% v c chim 83.85%.

Cng ty Chng Khon Thng Long

SN LNG NUI TRNG THEO IA PHNG

Duyn hi Nam Trung B

Ngun: Nim gim thng k 2006

Nhu cu thy sn th gii

Gi tr ca thu sn i vi sc kho con ngi ( M c l ngun cung cp chnh Omega-3

Cng ty Chng Khon Thng Long

PHN KHC NGNH CH BIN XUT KHC THU SN VIT NAM

Mc- bch tuc ng lnh,

Tm s: Hng ti sn xut cc sn phm gi tr gia tng

Sn phm tinh ch: Tm tm bt, tm sushi, tm nobashi,...

Cng ty Chng Khon Thng Long

C tra (pangasius hypothalmus) v c basa (pangasius bocourti) ca Vit Nam l loi c

C tht trng ( thng c gi cao, c th trng EU a chung)

C th vng ( thng c gi thp nht)

Nht l th trng tiu th tm ln nht Vit Nam chim 39.8%,

EU l th trng ln th 3 chim 10.6%.

Top 10 nh nui trng tm ln nht

Cng ty Chng Khon Thng Long

Nhu cu tiu th tm ti cc th trng ny trong nhng nm gn y, c bit l th

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