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V d 3. C bao nhiu cch sp khc nhau to thnh mt xu n ca cy thng Noel c 3 bng
n , 4 bng n vng, v 2 bng n xanh vi 9 cm?
Gii: Tng s sp xp phn bit l
! 2 ! 4 ! 3
! 9
= 1260.
4. Phn hoch. T hp.
Ta thng quan tm n s cch phn hoch mt tp gm n phn t thnh r tp con c gi
l cc ngn. Mt phn hoch c hon thnh khi giao ca mi cp trong r tp con l tp rng v
hp ca tt c nhng tp con l tp ban u. Th t ca cc phn t bn trong mt ngn l khng
quan trng.
a. Cng thc 1: Ta phn hoch mt tp gm n phn t thnh k ngn sao cho:
c
1
n phn t trong ngn th nht,
c
2
n phn t trong ngn th hai,...
c
k
n phn t trong ngn th k
Khi s cch phn hoch l:
1 2
1 2
!
, ,...,
! ! !
r
k
n
n
n n n
n n n
1
( )
trong
1 2
...
k
n n n n = .
V d 4. C bao nhiu cch phn cho 7 nh khoa hc vo mt bung ba v hai bung i ca mt
khch sn?
Gii: Tng s phn hoch c th c l
2 , 2 , 3
7
=
! 2 ! 2 ! 3
! 7
= 210.
Trong nhiu bi ton ta quan tm n s cch chn r phn t t n phn t m khng quan
tm n th t. Nhng php chn ny c gi l cc t hp. Mt t hp thc cht l mt phn
Bi ging Mn Ton 5- Xc sut Thng k Tin s: Nguyn Hu Th
2011 -2 012
hoch c hai ngn, mt ngn cha r i tng c chn cn ngn kia cha ( ) n r i tng cn
li.
b. Cng thc 2: S cc t hp ca n phn t phn bit c to ra khi ly r phn t cng mt lc l
!
!( )!
k
n
n
n
C
r
r n r
1
= =
( )
V d 5. Hy tm s y ban gm 2 nh Ha hc v 1 nh Vt l m c th to c t 4 nh Ha hc
v 3 nh Vt l.
Gi:
S cch chn 2 trong 4 nh ha hc l
2
4
=
! 2 ! 2
! 4
= 6.
S cch chn 1 trong 3 nh vt l l
1
3
=
! 2 ! 1
! 3
= 3.
S dng quy tc nhn vi n
1
= 6 v n
2
= 3, ta c th to c: n
1
n
2
= (6)(3) = 18
y ban vi 2 nh Ha hc v 1 nh Vt l.
c. Ch : Ta c
i) Quy c: 0! 1 =
ii)
k n k
n n
C C
=
iii)
1
1 1
k k k
n n n
C C C
= .
5. Nh thc Newton.
0
( )
n
n k n k k
n
k
a b C a b
=
=
.
II. BIN C V QUAN H GIA CC BIN C
1.Php th ngu nhin v khng gian mu.
V d m u: Khi cho cun dy quay u trong t trng ca mt thanh nam chm, kt qu l chc
chn xut hin dng in trong cun dy
y l mt php th khng ngu nhin.
Khi gieo mt con xc xc cn i v ng cht, ta khng on chc chn c kt qu. Ch bit c
kt qu l xut hin s chm trong {1, , 6}.
y l mt php th ngu nhin.
Nh vy: Mt php th ngu nhin lun tha hai c tnh:
1. Khng bit chc kt qu no s xy ra
2. Nhng bit c cc kt qu s xy ra
Bi ging Mn Ton 5- Xc sut Thng k Tin s: Nguyn Hu Th
2011 -2 012
Ta cn gp rt nhiu php th ngu nhin khc nh: quan st th trng chng khon, chi x s v
cc tr may ri, thng k tai nn v bo him, thng k khch hng n cc my rt tin ATM, m
s ln gi n cc tng i, xt cht lng sn phNm, quan st thi tit, xt kh nng phng th trong
qun s,
Vic thc hin mt nhm cc iu kin c bn quan st mt hin tng no c gi l
mt php th ngu nhin, y cc kt qu ca n khng d on trc c. Do bi ging ny ch
xt cc php th ngu nhin, nn ta gi tt chng l php th.
a. nh ngha. Tp hp tt c nhng kt qu c th ca mt php th thng k c gi l khng
gian mu v c k hiu bi S ( hoc ).
Mi kt qu trong khng gian mu c gi l mt phn t ca khng gian mu, hoc n gin l
mt im mu.
b. Cch m t khng gian mu:
+ Khi khng gian mu c hu hn phn t, ta c th lit k nhng phn t .
+ Khi khng gian mu c v hn phn t, hoc cc phn t c thuc tnh chung: ta c th m
t bng mnh hoc quy tc
+ Ta cng c th dng s hnh cy.
V d 6. Khi tung mt ng xu khng gian mu S c th vit l: S = {H, T}, trong H v T tng
ng vi heads v tails, ngha l "nga" v "sp".
V d 7. Khi gieo mt con xc sc:
+ Nu ta quan tm n s chm xut hin trn mi mt thi khng gian mu l:
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 S =
+ Nu ta quan tm n mt chn hay l (s chm xut hin trn mt l chn hay l) th khng
gian mu l:
, S chan le = =
V d 8. Khi tung hai ng xu, vi k hiu S: sp cn N: nga khi khng gian mu l:
, , , SS SN NN NS =
V d 9. Ly ngu nhin mt im nm trong min hnh ch nht trn mt phng ta Oxy vi
kch thc [0; 3] [0;2] , khi khng gian mu l:
( , ) 0 3; 0 2 S x y x y = =
V d 10. Xt php th l tung mt ng xu.
+ Nu xut hin mt sp xut th ta tung ng xu ln th hai.
+ Nu xut hin mt nga th ta tip tc tung mt con xc xc c tung mt ln.
Trong trng hp ny ta i xy dng s cy nh hnh v xc nh khng gian mu. By gi,
nhng con ng khc nhau dc theo cc cnh cy i ti nhng im mu khc bit.
Bi ging Mn Ton 5- Xc sut Thng k Tin s: Nguyn Hu Th
2011 -2 012
T ta xc nh c khng gian mu l :
; ; 1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6 SS NN N N N N N N = .
c. Cch xy dng khng gian mu :
+ t tn cho cc phn t c mt hoc cc bc hnh thnh php th
+M t im mu theo cc kt qu xy ra trong php th.
2. Bin c
a. nh ngha. Cc kt qu c th xy ra ca php th c gi l bin c. Nh vy bin c ca mt
php th chnh l mi tp con ca khng gian mu.
K hiu bin c : Dng cc ch in hoa nh A, B, C
Ch
Mi im mu l mt bin c v c g l bin c s cp.
Bin c khng th l bin c khng bao gi xy ra khi thc hin php th, k hiu l .
Bin c chc chn l bin c lun lun xy ra khi thc hin php th, n tng ng vi
chnh khng gian mu S (hay ) nn k hiu l S (hay ).
b. Quan h gia cc bin c. Cho A v B l hai bin c ca mt php th vi khng gian mu S .
Khi :
Bin c A c gi l ko theo bin c B, k hiu A B, nu A xy ra th B cng xy ra.
Bin c A c gi l tng ng vi bin c B, k hiu A = B, nu A xy ra th B xy ra v
ngc li.
Bin c i ca bin c A, k hiu A , l bin c xy ra khi v ch khi A khng xy ra.
Bi ging Mn Ton 5- Xc sut Thng k Tin s: Nguyn Hu Th
2011 -2 012
Hp (tng) ca hai bin c A v B , k hiu l A B (hoc A B ) l bin c xy ra nu
c t nht mt bin c no trong cc bin c A hoc B xy ra. Ni cch khc : A B l bin c
gm cc im mu hoc thuc A hoc thuc B .
nh ngha hp ca n bin c cng c nh ngha tng t :
1 2
...
n
A A A
Giao (tch) ca hai bin c A v B , k hiu A B (hoc AB ) l bin c xy ra nu c A
v B cng xy ra. Ni cch khc A B l bin c gm cc im mu thuc c A v B .
Nu A
1
, A
2
, , A
n
l cc bin c lin quan n cng mt php th, th giao (hay tch) ca chng,
k hiu l
1 2
...
n
A A A .
Hai bin c A v B c gi l xung khc nu A B = .
V d 11. A l bin c ra s chm chn khi gieo mt con xc xc , th A = ra s chm l
V d 12. Xt bin c A = {2, 4, 6}, bin c B = {4, 5, 6} v bin c
1, 2, 4, 6 C = l nhng tp
con ca cng khng gian mu S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
Khi :
+ Ta c A ko theo C , tc l A C
+
1, 3, 5 A = ,
1, 2, 3 B = ,
4, 6 A B = ,
2, 4, 5, 6 A B = .
V d 13. Xt php th : T = gieo mt con xc xc cn i v cc bin c :
A
i
= "Xut hin i chm",
A = "Xut hin chm chn",
B = "Xut hin chm chia ht cho 3".
Khi
+ A = A
2
A
4
A
6
, B = A
3
A
6
,
+ AB = A
6
.
+ Cc bin c : A
1
, A
2
, , A
6
i mt xung khc.
V d 14. C ba x th A, B, C cng bn vo mt mc tiu. Gi :
A l bin c "x th A bn trng"
B l bin c "x th B bn trng"
C l bin c "x th C bn trng"
Khi : M ABC = l bin c "c ba x th bn trng"
N ABC = l bin c "c ba x th bn trt"
P A B C = l bin c "c t nht mt x th bn trng"
Q AB BC CA = l bin c "c t nht hai x th bn trng"
R ABC ABC ABC = l bin c "c ng mt x th bn trng"
U AB BC CA = l bin c "c nhiu nht mt x th bn trng"
V ABC = l bin c "ch c x th A bn trng".
Ch : Ta cng c th s dng s Ven biu din quan h gia cc bin c
Bi ging Mn Ton 5- Xc sut Thng k Tin s: Nguyn Hu Th
2011 -2 012
c. Mt s hng ng thc.
Tnh giao hon: AB =BA, AB =BA
Tnh kt hp: ( ) ( ) A B C A B C A B C = = ; ( ) ( ) ABC AB C A BC = =
Tnh phn phi: (AB)C = ACBC, ABC = (AC)(BC)
AA = A, AA = A
A = , A = A, A = A, A =
A A =
Lut De Morgan:
1 2 1 2 n n
A A A A A A =
1 2 1 2 n n
AA A A A A =
III. XC SUT CA MT BIN C
1. M u v xc sut.
Vic bin c ngu nhin xy ra hay khng trong kt qu ca mt php th l iu khng th
bit hoc on trc c. Tuy nhin bng nhng cch khc nhau ta c th nh lng kh nng xut
hin ca bin c, l xc sut xut hin ca bin c. Xc sut ca bin c l con s c trng kh
nng khch quan xut hin bin c khi thc hin php th.
Da vo bn cht ca php th (ng kh nng) ta c th suy lun v kh nng xut hin ca
bin c, vi cch tieps cn ny ta c nh ngha xc sut theo phng php c in.
Khi thc hin nhiu ln lp li c lp mt php th ta c th tnh c tn sut xut hin (s
ln xut hin) ca mt bin c no . Tn sut th hin kh nng xut hin ca bin c, vi cch
tip cn ny ta c nh ngha xc sut theo thng k.
Trng hp ta biu din khng gian mu v cc bin c bi cc min hnh hc c o ta s
c nh ngha xc sut theo quan im hnh hc.
2. Xc xut ca ca mt bin c
Ta ch xt nhng php th m khng gian mu c hu hn phn t: chng hn xt php th
vi khng gian mu
1 2
, ,...
k
S s s s = = .
Bi ging Mn Ton 5- Xc sut Thng k Tin s: Nguyn Hu Th
2011 -2 012
Khi , vi mi im mu (bin c s cp)
i
s c gn tng ng vi mt s thc
i
p tha mn
1
0;1
1
i
k
i
i
p
p
=
' l
1
1 l
l
1
1
!
1
=
1
1
1+
, s thc
i
p c gi l xc sut ca im mu (bin c s cp)
i
s . Nu ta c l do
tin rng mt im mu no rt c kh nng xy ra khi php th c tin hnh, xc sut c
gn s gn 1. Mt khc, mt xc sut gn 0 c gn cho mt im mu m dng nh khng xut
hin. Trong nhiu php th, nh tung mt ng xu hay mt xc xc, tt c nhng im mu c cng
kh nng xut hin cng c gn cc xc sut bng nhau. i vi nhng im bn ngoi khng
gian mu, tc l i vi cc bin c m khng th xut hin, ta gn cho xc sut bng 0.
Ta ch rng, mi bin c l tp con ca khng gian mu S , nn mt bin c A ca php
th l mt tp gm cc im mu (bin c s cp), mi bin s s cp trong A cn gi l mt kh
nng thun li cho . A
a. nh ngha. Xt php th vi khng gian mu S v A bin c trong php th . Khi xc
sut ca bin c A l tng xc xut ca tt c cc dim mu trong A, k hiu l ( ) P A .
T nh ngha ta c:
1. 0 ( ) 1 P A
2. ( ) ( ) 1 P S P = =
3. ( ) 0 P = .
V d 15. Mt ng xu c tung 2 ln. Xc sut t nht mt mt nga xut hin l bao nhiu?
Gii:
+ Khng gian mu i vi php th ny l
S = {SS, SN, NS, SS}.
+ Nu ng xu cn i, mi kt cc nh vy c th ng kh nng xut hin. Do , ta gn mt
xc sut w cho mi im mu. Khi y 4w = 1, hay w = 1/4.
+ Nu A biu th bin c t nht mt mt nga xut hin, th
A = {NN, NS, SN}
+ V P(A) =
4
3
4
1
4
1
4
1
= + + .
V d 16. Mt con sc sc c ch sao cho kh nng xut hin mt chm chn gp 2 ln kh
nng xut hin mt chm l. Gi E l bin c s chm nh hn 4 xut hin trong mt ln tung xc
xc, hy tm P(E)?
Gii:
+ Khng gian mu l S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
+ Ta gn mt xc sut w cho mi s chm l v mt xc sut 2w cho mi s chm chn.
+ Do tng ca cc xc sut phi bng 1 nn ta c 9w = 1 hay w = 1/9.
+ T , cc xc sut 1/9 v 2/9 c gn cho mi s chm chn v l tng ng.
+ Do :
E = {1, 2, 3} v P(E) =
9
4
9
1
9
2
9
1
= + + .
V d 17. Trong V d 16 gi A l bin c xut hin s chm chn v cho B l bin c xut hin s
chm chia ht cho 3. Hy tm P(AB) v P(AB).
Bi ging Mn Ton 5- Xc sut Thng k Tin s: Nguyn Hu Th
2011 -2 012
Gii:
+ Ta c A = {2, 4, 6} v B = {3, 6}, t AB = {2, 3, 4, 6} v AB = {6}.
+ Do xc sut cho mi s chm l l
1
9
v mi s chm chn
2
9
, nn ta c
2 1 2 2 7
( )
9 9 9 9 9
P A B = = v
2
( ) .
9
P A B =
Trng hp khng gian mu c hu hn phn t v cc bin c s cp ng kh nng.
b. nh ngha xc sut theo li c in
Gii s php th c N bin c s cp ng kh nng, trong bin c Ac cha n
bin c s cp
ng kh nng. Khi xc sut ca bin c A c xc nh bi
( ) .
n
P A
N
=
Cc bc tm xc sut ca mt bin c A:
1.m s bin s s cp ng kh nng trong khng gian mu: N
2. m s bin s s cp ng kh nng trong bin c : A n
3. T ( ) .
n
P A
N
=
V d 18. Mt ng ko trn ln 6 chic bc h, 4 chic ko b v 3 chic chocolate. Nu mt ngi
chn ngu nhin mt trong nhng chic ko ny, hy tm xc sut c
a. Mt chic bc h;
b. Mt chic ko b hoc mt chocolate.
Gii: Gi M, T, v C l cc bin c m ngi chn c, tng ngmt chic bc h, ko b, hoc
chocolate. Tng s ko bng 13 v tt c u ng kh nng chn.
a. Do 6 trong 13 chic l bc h, xc sut ca bin c M chn c ngu nhin mt bc h l
P(M) =
13
6
.
b. Do 7 trong 13 chic ko l b hoc chocolate, suy ra
P(TC) =
13
7
.
V d 19. Ly ngu nhiu 5 cy T L Kh trong b 52 cy. Hy tm xc sut trong c 2 cy
t v 3 cy J.
Gii: Gi C l bin c Trong 5 cy c 2 cy t v 3 cy J
+ S cch chia ring 2 cy t 4 cy t bng:
2
4
=
! 2 ! 2
! 4
= 6
+ S cch chia ring 3 cy t 4 cy J bng :
3
4
=
! 1 ! 3
! 4
= 4.
+ Theo quy tc nhn ta c n = (6)(4) = 24 trng hp rt ra c 2 t v 3 J.
+ M tng s trng hp ly ngu nhin 5 cy bi (tt c u ng kh nng) l
Bi ging Mn Ton 5- Xc sut Thng k Tin s: Nguyn Hu Th
2011 -2 012
N =
5
52
=
! 47 ! 5
! 52
= 2598960.
+ Do xc sut ca bin c C l:
5
24
( ) 0, 9.10 .
2598960
P C
= =
Hn ch ca nh ngha xc sut theo li c in
1.N ch xt cho trng hp khng gian mu c hu hn cc bin c
2. Cc bin c s cp trong khng gian mu ng kh nng
Tuy nhin khng phi lc no khng gian mu cng tha mn iu .
Nu cc kt qu ca php th khng ng kh nng th cc xc sut s c xc nh da vo kinh
nghim trc hoc da trn cc bng chng ca php th. Chng hn nh, nu tung mt ng xu
khng cn bng th chng ta c th c lng xc sut xut hin mt nga hay mt sp bng cch
tung ng xu nhiu ln v ghi li cc kt qu. Da vo nh ngha xc sut theo tn sut, xc sut
thc t l t l mt sp hoc nga xut hin trong nhiu php th.
b. nh ngha xc sut theo tn sut (theo li thng k)
Thc hin mt php th N ln. Gii s bin c A xut hin n ln. Khi n c gi l tn s ca
bin c A v t s
n
N
c gi l tn sut xut hin ca bin c A trong hnh lot php th. Cho
s ln thc hin php th tng ln v hn, tn sut ca bin c Adn v s xc nh th s gi l
xc sut ca bin c A, khi :
( ) lim
N
n
P A
N
= .
V d 20. V d v tung mt ng xu nhiu ln:
Ngi tung S ln tung S ln xut hin mt sp Tn sut xut hin mt sp
Mai 4040 2048 0,5069
Hng 12000 6019 0,5016
o 24000 12012 0,5005
Tn sut dn ti s 0.5
Bi ging Mn Ton 5- Xc sut Thng k Tin s: Nguyn Hu Th
2011 -2 012
c. nh ngha xc sut theo hnh hc
Xt php th c khng gian mu S c biu din bi min hnh hc S c o S khc khng,
bin c A c biu din bi min hnh hc A. Khi xc sut ca bin c A c xc nh bi:
( ) =
A
P A
S
.
V nh:
T c Chng 1
Bi tp: Mc 2.1+2.2: Tr. 25; Mc 2.3: tr. 35; Mc 2.4: tr. 43
Tr. c trc cc Mc 2.1 n 2.8 chuNn b cho Bi s 2: Cc php ton v xc sut
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Title: Bi ging Mn Ton 2-Gii tch nhiu bin
Tin s: Nguyn Hu Th
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Creation Date: 1/11/2011 11:08:00 PM
Change Number: 91
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