BIN I KH HU VI NG BNG SNG CU LONG

Bin i kh hu l hin tng tri t nng dn ln do hiu ng nh knh lm

cho nhit cc i dng tng dn ln, lm tan bng cc vng cc i, dn ti
kh hu ca tri t bin i, hn hn bo l xy ra ngy mt tng, nc bin ngy
mt dng cao.
Theo d bo ca Ban Lin Chnh Ph v bin i kh hu n cui th k
XXI, nhit trung bnh ton cu s tng 2 40C dn n mc nc bin trung bnh
ton cu s tng ln 0,18 0,59m so vi cui th k XX. Nu lng kh thi nh
knh gi mc nm 2000 th cui th k XXI nhit trung bnh ton cu vn tng
20C v mc nc bin trung bnh ton cu vn tng 0,1 0,25m so vi th k XX.
Trong c hai trng hp nu bng tan nhiu nc bin s dng cao hn.
Vit Nam, theo nghin cu ca Vin Nghin cu kh tng thy vn th
trong vng 50 nm (1950 - 2000) nhit trung bnh tng 0,70C
Trc tnh hnh trn ngy 2/12/2008 th tng ra quyt nh nghin cu
bin i kh hu v:
Vo nm 2009 hon thnh cc kch bn bin i kh hu Vit Nam.
Cui nm 2010 hon thnh vic cp nht kch bn bin i kh hu cho tng giai
on t 2010 2100.
Thc hin quyt nh ca chnh ph thng 10/2009 B Ti Nguyn v Mi Trng
cng b kch bn bin i kh hu vo cui th k XXI mc nc bin dng cao
hn cui th k XX l 1,0m.
i vi BSCL, BKH lm cho mc nc bin dng, hn hn, l lt xy ra vi tn
sut ngy cng ln hn. Nhng yu t s lm gia tng ngp lt, xm nhp mn,
lan trn chua phn v dn ti nhng h ly khc. Trong bo co ny xin tp trung
vo hai vn chnh c tnh cht nguyn nhn ca mi nguyn nhn l MC
NC BIN DNG v HN HN.
I. MC NC BIN DNG.
1. Thy triu bin thay i theo thi gian l do tc ng ca mt Trng, mt Tri
v cc yu t kh hu khc trong tc ng ca mt Trng v mt Tri l yu t
chnh. V vy thy triu bin ln xung theo thi gian c tnh chu k ngy m,
na thng, mt thng, mt nm v nhiu nm.
2. Mc nc nh triu, chn triu chu s tc ng chnh ca mt Trng, mt Tri
v cc yu t kh hu bnh thng ngoi ra cn chu tc ng ca cc yu t kh hu
bt bnh thng khng mang tnh quy lut nn rt kh cho vic nghin cu chu k
nhiu nm. Mc nc trung bnh l yu t c tnh n nh cao, t b nh hng ca
nhng hin tng kh hu bt thng. V vy nghin cu chu k nhiu nm ngi
ta thng nghin cu s bin i mc nc bin trung bnh.

-1-

3. Vit Nam c 3 trm hi vn c s liu nhiu nm l Hn Du (Hi Phng), Sn

Tr ( Nng), v Vng Tu (B Ra Vng Tu)
Thy triu Hn Du c ch nht triu ngy ln xung mt ln c bin
ln (4,0 4,5m) v c thi gian quan trc di (t 1961 n 2006). Thy triu Sn
Tr c ch bn nht triu ngy ln xung hai ln c bin nh (1,0 n 2,0m).
Thy triu Vng Tu c ch bn nht triu ngy ln xung hai ln c bin
ln (4,0 4,5 m), ti liu thu thp c t 1982 n 2007.
Trong nghin cu ny chng ti s dng ti liu ca trm Hn Du l trm
c ti liu quan trc di nm v Vng Tu l trm gn BSCL
4. Trong 46 nm (t 1961 n 2006), nu b qua 4 nm (1961 n 1964) nghi ng
c sai s th mc nc trung bnh nm cao nht ca trm Hn Du l 204cm (nm
1984) v thp nht l 183 (nm 1965) (cao Hi )
Trong 25 nm (1982 - 2007) mc nc trung bnh nm cao nht ca trm
Vng Tu l -18cm nm 1996 v thp nht l -36cm nm 1982 (cao Quc gia).
Bin trnh mc nc trung bnh nhiu nm Vng Tu v Hn Du tuy thay i
nhng vn c tnh chu k, tuy vy vic xc nh chnh xc rt kh khn. Bin trnh
mc nc bnh qun 5 nm lin tc Hn Du v Vng Tu c chu k khong 18
20 nm. Kim tra li vi bin trnh mc nc bnh qun lin tc 10 nm Hn Du
cng cho thy tnh chu k nhiu nm ca thy triu l khong 18 20 nm (ring
Vng Tu ti liu qu ngn nn khng th hin r )
5. Bin trnh mc nc trung bnh 18 nm:
a) Bin trnh mc nc trung bnh 18 nm ca Hn Du v Vng Tu u cho thy
s gia tng mc nc bin.
- Hn Du trong vng 40 nm, mc nc bin trung bnh 18 nm sau
(1984 2001 ) cao hn mc nc bin trung bnh 18 nm trc (1964 1981) l
58,5 mm. Tnh ra gia tng trung bnh ca nc bin Hn Du l khong 3,0
mm/nm. Dng quan h H 18 nam ~ T th trung bnh mi nm gia tng 1,7 mm
- Vng Tu trong vng 25 nm (1982 n 2007) mc nc bin trung bnh
18 nm (1990 2007) cao hn mc nc bin trung bnh 18 nm (1982 1999) l
34,4 mm. Tnh trung bnh mi nm gia tng 5mm. Dng quan h H 18 nam ~ T th
trung bnh mi nm gia tng 4,7 mm
b) Bin trnh mc nc ln nht trung bnh nhiu nm cng cho thy s gia tng r
rt
- Hn Du mc nc ln nht trung bnh trong 18 nm (1989 - 2006) cao
hn mc nc trung bnh ln nht 18 nm (1962 1982) l 120 mm, trung bnh mi
nm gia tng 5mm. Mc nc ln nht theo quan h H 18 nam ~ T tng trung bnh
3,4 mm mi nm.
- Vng Tu mc nc ln nht trung bnh 18 nm (1990 2007) cao hn
mc nc ln nht trung bnh 18 nm (1982 1999) l 46,7 mm, trung bnh mi
nm gia tng 5,8 mm . Dng quan h H max 18nam ~ T th mc nc ln nht trung bnh

-2-

18 nm (1990 2007) cao hn mc nc ln nht trung bnh 18 nm (1982 1999)

l 6,2 mm mi nm.
c) Bin trnh mc nc thp nht c Hn Du v Vng Tu u cha pht hin
thy s gia tng.
d) Qua nghin cu cho thy, mc nc bin trung bnh nhiu nm Vng Tu mi
nm gia tng 4,7 mm. S gia tng ny ln hn hn s gia tng mc nc bin nhiu
nm Hn Du. Phi chng l do s liu mc nc Vng Tu qu ngn nn kt
qu cn cha cnh xc.
Qua nghin cu cho thy s gia tng:
Mc nc bin ch yu l do s gia tng mc nc nh triu. Theo quan h
H max 18 nam ~ T th mi nm Hn Du tng khong 3,4 mm mi nm v Vng Tu
tng khong 6,2 mm mi nm. y l mt nhn t gy ngp lt nhng vng thp
trng BSCL

-3-

HNH 1 - BIN TRNH MC NC TRUNG BNH 5 NM TI HN DU V VNG TU

1980

-200

1960

-220

1940
-240
1920
-260

1880

-280

H (mm)

1900

1860
-300
1840
-320

1820
1800

-340
1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

H HD

1990

1995

2000

Nm

H VT

HNH 2- BIN TRNH MC NC TRUNG BNH 10 NM TI HN DU V VNG TU

1950

-200

1940

-220

1930
-240

1920

H (mm)

1910

-260

1900
-280

1890
1880

-300

1870
-320

1860
1850

-340
1965

1975

1985

H HD

H VT

-4-

1995

Nm

H(cm)

Hnh 3: Quan h Htbmax18 ~ T ti Hn Du

388,00

386,00

384,00

382,00

H = 3,4122T + 371,61
R2 = 0,8598

Hmax18 (cm)
Log. (Hmax18 (cm))
Linear (Hmax18 (cm))

380,00

378,00

376,00

374,00

H = 8,7349Ln(T) + 372,48
R2 = 0,8612

372,00
1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,8 1,9 2,0 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6 2,7 2,8 2,9 3,0 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6 3,7 3,8 3,9 4,0 4,1

T (thi gian)

-5-

Hnh 4: Quan h Htb18 ~ T ti Hn Du

H(cm)

194,00

192,00

H = 1,662T + 186
R2 = 0,8626

190,00

188,00

186,00

H = 4,3722Ln(T) + 186,31
2
R = 0,9125

Htb18 (cm)
Htb18 (cm)
Log. (Htb18 (cm))
Linear (Htb18 (cm))

184,00

182,00
1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,8 1,9 2,0 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6 2,7 2,8 2,9 3,0 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6 3,7 3,8 3,9 4,0 4,1

T (thi gian)

-6-

Hnh 5: Quan h Hmax18 ~ T ti Vng Tu

136,00
TB Hmax18
Linear (TB Hmax18)

135,00

H(cm)

134,00
133,00
132,00

H = 6,2036T + 110,19
R2 = 0,9719

131,00
130,00
129,00
3,20

3,30

3,40

3,50

3,60

-7-

3,70

3,80

3,90

4,00
4,10
T (thi gian)

Hnh 6: Quan h Htb18 ~ T ti Vng Tu

-23,00
-23,50

TB HTB18
Linear (TB HTB18)

-24,00

H(cm)

-24,50
-25,00
H = 4,7012T - 42,183
R2 = 0,9766

-25,50
-26,00
-26,50
-27,00
-27,50
3,20

3,30

3,40

3,50

3,60

-8-

3,70

3,80

3,90

4,00

4,10
T (thi gian)

Hnh 7: Quan h Hmin18 ~ T ti Vng Tu

-297,50
-298,00

TB Hmin18

-298,50

H(cm)

-299,00
-299,50
-300,00
-300,50
-301,00
-301,50
3,20

3,30

3,40

3,50

3,60

3,70

3,80

3,90

4,00

4,10

T (thi gian)

-9-

II. HN HN
Bin i kh hu s gy ra hn hn. Cng vi nc bin dng, dng sng cn
kit l tc nhn a nc mn t bin xm nhp su vo t lin.
BSCL my nm gn y tuy hn hn xy ra nghim trng nhng din
tch gieo trng la ng Xun ln n 1,5 triu ha, din tch gieo trng la h thu
ln ti 1,8 1,9 triu ha. l nh cc h cha thy in ln trn lu vc sng
MKong xy dng v pht huy tc dng.
Trc nm 1990 trn lu vc sng MKong mi ch xy dng thy in Nm
Ngum (Lo) c dung tch hiu dng l 4700 triu m3. T nm 1991 n nm 2003
cc nc Trung Quc, Vit Nam, Lo xy dng thm 4 nh my thy in ln
vi dung tch hiu dng l 1926 triu m3 , nh m lu lng sng Mkong
Paskse trung bnh 5 nm lin tc cc thng II, III, IV ca cc nm t 2001 2005
ln hn 5 nm t 1991 1995 khong 310 370 m3/s. Lu lng sng Mkong
Kratie trung bnh 5 nm lin tc cc thng II, III, IV ca 5 nm t 1996 n 2000
cao hn ca 5 nm t 1991 1995 l 290 500 m3/s.
Bng 1 Lu lng trung bnh thng 5 nm lin tc ti Paskse (1986 2005, m3/s)
Thng

Thng

II

III

2447

2068

1879

1729

1991 - 1995

2619

2025

1749

1651

1996 - 2000

2626

2122

1903

1904

2001 - 2005

2993

2399

2125

2058

Q1986 1990

546

331

246

329

Q19911995

374

374

376

307

S TT

Nm

Thng I

1986 - 1990

2001 2005

2001 2005

Thng IV

Bng 2 - Lu lng trung bnh thng 5 nm lin tc ti Kratie (1986 2000), m3/s)

Thng

Thng

II

III

3394

2340

1932

1840

1991 - 1995

3813

2732

2189

2134

1996 - 2000

4337

3204

2473

2718

524

472

284

584

S TT

Nm

Thng I

1986 - 1990

2
3
1996 2000

Q19911995

- 10 -

Thng IV

Trn cc bng 2-4 cho thy lu lng trung bnh ma cn Kratie 5 nm

1986 1990 tng ng vi lu lng trung bnh thi k 1960 1970. Nhng
sang thi k 1996 2000 lu lng trung bnh ma cn Kratie ln hn thi k
trc khong 300- 500 m3/s.
Bng 3 Lu lng trung bnh sng Mkong h lu Phnon Penh (1960
1970), (m3/s)
Tram

Thng I

Thng II

Thng III

Thng IV

Thng V

Thng VI

Kratie

3601

2669

2129

1909

3211

11099

Phnon Penh

3535

2339

1941

1848

2853

9698

Prek Kdam

3658

1534

661

371

102

1342

7193

3873

2602

2219

2955

8356

Ha lu Phnom
Penh

Bng 4 So snh lu lng trung bnh Kratie qua cc thi k (m3/s)

Thng I

Thng II

Thng III

Thng IV

Thng V

Thng VI

1960-1970

3601

2669

2129

1909

3211

11099

1986-1990

3394

2340

1932

1840

3628

11564

1996-2000

4337

3204

2473

2718

2765

13548

Hin nay cc h cha nc thy in ln nh Pleikrong, Sesan 4, Nam Theun

2, Boun Kuop xy dng xong, cc cng trnh Nm Ngum 2, Nam Lik 2, Jing
Hong ang xy dng v n nm 2010 s a vo s dng. Nh tng dung tch
hiu dng cc h cha thy in ln trn lu vc sng Mkong trong giai on 1991
2000 s tng ln khong 11 000 x106 m3. Hy vng rng sau nm 2010 lu lng
vo ma cn h lu sng Mkong s tng thm khong 500 600 m3/s v s y li
ranh gii xm nhp mn.
Bng 5 Dung tch cc h cha thy in ln trn lu vc sng Mkong xy dng
trong giai on 1979 2010 .
Dung tch
TT

Tn h

Sng

hiu dng
(106 m3)

Nm hon
thnh

Quc gia

Nm Ngum

Nm Ngum

4700

1971

Lo

Mam Wan

Mkong

258

1993

TQ

Theun Hiboun

694

1998

Lao

Theun
Hiboun

- 11 -

Yaly

Sesan

779

2001

Vietnam

Dachao Han

Mkong

240

2003

TQ

Plei Kroong

Sesan

948

2008

Vietnam

Sesan 4A

Sesan

204

2008

Vietnam

Nm Theun 2

Nam Theun

3378

2009

Lao

Boun Kuop

Serepok

523

2009

Vietnam

10

Nam Ngum 2

Nam ngum

2994

2010

Lao

11

Nm Lik2

Nam Lik

826

2010

12

Jing Hong

Mkong

230

2010

TQ

Theo kt qu quy hoch thy in ca lu vc sng Mkong th tng dung

tch hiu dng cc h cha thy in trn lu vc sng Mkong rt ln, khong trn
100x109 m3. Vi tng lng nc hng nm ca sng Mkong khong 500x109 m3,
cc h cha thy in trn lu vc sng Mkong c kh nng iu tit nhiu nm
lm tng lu lng cho ma cn sng Mkong v c th cung cp nc cho
BSCL v y ranh gii xm nhp mn li xa ra hn na.
Bng 6 - Tng dung tch hiu dng cc h cha thy in trn lu vc sng
Mkong
Tng dung tch hiu dng

S TT

Tn

Thng lu sng Mkong thuc TQ

23048

H lu sng Mkong thuc VN, L,C, T

3973

Sng nhnh thuc Lo

55160

Sng nhnh thuc Vit Nam

3156

Sng nhnh thuc Campuchia

16735

(106 m3)

Tng cng

102,072

- 12 -

III. D BO
1. D bo cho nm 2020
a) Nc bin dng:
Kt qu nghin cu cho thy mc nc bin trung bnh Vng Tu trong
giai on 1982 2007 mi nm gia tng khong 4,7 mm. D bo mc nc bin
trung bnh giai on 2012 2027 gia tng thm khong 90 mm. Mc nc bin ln
nht hng nm Vng Tu trong giai on 1982 2007 mi nm gia tng khong
6,2 mm d bo mc nc bin ln nht hng nm trung bnh giai on 2012 2027
gia tng thm khong 120 mm.
b) D bo kh hn:
Mc nc bin trung bnh dng cao, nht l mc nc nh triu s lm cho
nhng vng thp trng BSCL ngp lt v y nc mn t bin vo su trong
t lin.
y li s xm nhp mn BSCL c nhiu bin php, mt trong nhng
bin php l s dng nc sng Mkong. Theo k hoch t 2011 2015 trn lu
vc sng Mkong s xy dng mt s cng trnh thy in, trong c 15 cng
trnh c h cha ln vi tng dung tch hiu dng l 25 600 x106 m3, d bo trong
ma kh c th lm gia tng 1400 1600 m3/s na. V t 2016 2022 s xy dng
thm 22 cng trnh thy in c h cha ln vi tng dung tch hiu dng l 36 800
x106 m3. n lc lu lng ma cn s gia tng rt ln, hy vng s xm nhp
mn trong ma kh BSCL khng cn l mt vn ln na.
2. D bo sau nm 2020
a) Nc bin dng
Dng ti liu mc nc bin trong khong 25 40 nm d bo mc nc
bin 50 100 nm sau l iu khng tng.
Hn th na chng bin i kh hu n nm 2020 cc nc trn th gii
s ct gim rt ln lng kh thi. Vo nm 2020 M cam kt ct gim 17 %
lng kh thi, Trung Quc ha s ct gim 40 45 %, n ha s ct gim 20
25 % , Brazil hy vng s ct gim 36 39 %, Lin minh Chu u s ct gim 20%
lng kh thi v gi n cui th k XXI nhit tri t ch tng thm 1,5 - 20 C.
Nh vy t sau nm 2020 kh hu tri t s bin i chm hn giai on 1990
2020, v mc nc bin dng cng s gim i.
Nhng nghin cu trn cho thy mc nc bin dng hng nm rt chm,
v vy khi lng ph trong u t trong 10 nm ti chng ta cha nn xy dng
nhng cng trnh CNG, ng thi thu thp thm ti liu v tin hnh nghin cu
d bo chnh xc hn.

- 13 -

b) Hn hn:
Theo kt qu quy hoch ca y hi quc t sng Mkong n nm 2020 cc
h cha thy in trn lu vc sng Mkong c a vo s dng c dung tch
hiu dng trn 70 t m3 v t nm 2021 2050 s xy dng thm cc nh my thy
in c dung tch hiu dng khong 30 t m3 na. n lc lu lng ma cn
sng Mkong s tng ln rt ln, m bo cung cp cho cc quc gia H lu v
y ranh gii mn li xa hn na.
IV. KT LUN V KIN NGH
Bin i kh hu v tc hi ca bin i kh hu lm mc nc bin dng
cao, hn hn v l lt xy ra BSCL. Do ti liu o c mc nc gin on v
chnh xc khng cao nn nn nhng nghin cu ny ch mi l bc u. Trong
thi gian ti cn thu thp thm ti liu tng cng nghin cu, tng bc nng
cao kt qu d bo.
Theo quy hoch ca ca y hi quc t sng Mkong th ngoi 8 cng trnh
thy in trn sng Mkong thng lu thuc a phn Trung Quc c tng dung
tch hiu dng l 23 t m3. h lu sng Mkong cn xy dng hng trm cng
trnh thy in khc c tng dung tch hiu dng khong 80 t m3 na. Cc cng
trnh h lu sng Mkong li nm trong vng c ngun nc di do nn tc ng
ca chng rt ln. Chng ta cn yu cu y hi quc t sng Mkong cho bit k
hoch xy dng cc cng trnh ny, s bin i dng chy v cc tc ng ca n
n BSCL theo cc mc thi gian 2010, 2015, 2020, 2050c bit lu ti cc
cng trnh ln trn cc dng sng nhnh ln nh sng Nm Ngum, Nm Theun,
Nm Nghip, Nm Khan, Nam Leoi, Xekong, Sesan, Serepok.
BSCL l vng h lu sng Mkong, vng nhy cm v s bin i ln bi
nhng tc ng ca con ngi trn lu vc sng Mkong. V vy Vit Nam nn
ngh vi y hi quc t sng Mkong duy tr vic quan trc thy vn, nht l cc
trm trn dng chnh v c hai mt lng v cht. c bit ngh khi phc cc
trm thy vn Kratie v Prek Kdam trn a phn Campuchia v tng cng o c
lu lng hai trm Tn Chu, Chu c thuc a phn Vit Nam
Vin quy hoch Thy li Min Nam nn c mt t nghin cu v theo di v
s pht trin cc d n thy li trn sng Mkong v cc tc ng ca n tm cc
bin php khai thc cc mt li v gim thiu cc tc hi do con ngi gy ra
TP. HCM Thng 12/2009

Trn c Khm

- 14 -