2

0.

1.

2.

3.

21

23

0.

( / )


7,000

1 2012

: Global Risk Report 2012 .5

: Global Risk Report 2012 .6

1.
2.
3.

1.

(Ulrich Beck) 1
2

(post modern / beyond the modern)

(the second modrnity)
(global)



(manufactured risk) 2
1)
(urbanization)


2) (health risk)

(BSE)

(uncalculated and unpredicted)

1
2

Beck, Ulrich. (1992). Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity

(Living in Global Risk Society) London School of Economic

15 2006

3
1. (De-localization) :
omnipresent
2. (incalculableness):


3. (Non-compensatibility) :

( )

3
3
1. (Spatial):
2. (Temporal):

3. (Social):

(Global risk report)
2007 (. 2550)
(multistakeholder approach)

3 5
1

2553

2554

2555

2550
2551
2552
: Global Risk Report 2012 .12

internet

4 5
1

2551

2552

2550

: Global Risk Report 2012 .12

2553

2554

2555

.. 2555 (2012) (term of livelihood)

2554
(term of impact)

6 ( )


.. 2540 ..2551 ( subprime)

(center of gravity)






(critical connection)

2.

2.1

Occupy

(demographic
transformation)

......."" (Arab Spring)

3

( .1968 )

17 .. 2553


80

45

Robert M. Danin and other (2011) The Arab World's 'Unprecedented' Protests
http://www.cfr.org/egypt/arab-worlds-unprecedented-protests/p23908 ( 2 .. 2555)
4

(2011) http://prachatai.com/journal/2011/11/37910
2 .. 2555

10

5 Arab Spring

: http://wacsfschools.wordpress.com/2011/07/28/summer-institute-2011-week-four-721-assessing-the-arabspring-a-cairo-perspective/

11

2.6
2.6
..-.. 3

(GPIF)
1.37 13
GPIF
GPIF 1.85% ..-.. 5.11%
2.069 (2.634 )
5.48 ..-..
108.2 .. 113.61 ..
: . 1 2555 http://bit.ly/QLqNgE

Occupy Wall
Street

15 .. 2554


(corporation)
(1%) (99%)

12

: http://www.occupytogether.org/blog/downloadable-posters/

-


3

1 3 5.2

13

3 .. 2573





7

: Global Risk Report 2012 . 18

" " -- -
18
http://www.matichon.co.th/news_detail.php?newsid=1334746022&grpid=01&catid=09&subcatid=0901

14

: 2050 2
6.2 ( 70% 8.9 ) 40


4,000 60 760
2009 2 2050 2.6%


10 24

2009 2% 2 27
, ,
ILO lost
generation

.. 2555
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/28/europes-lost-generation-young-eu
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jul/02/lost-generation-will-cost-more

15

2.2
7

2011 ( ..2554)
2000 50
200
8 1990 2011 ()

: Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2010 : The numbers and trends. . 3

.. 2554 (2011) 332 30,770
244.7 366.1

10 90%

.. 2554
( ) 210 (3.9% GDP )
57.4

Debby Guha-Sapir and others (2011) Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2010 : The numbers and trends.

16

(12.7% GDP ) (12.8% GDP )

366.1
1 10

/ ()
()
()
( )
()
()
( )
()
(-)
(-)

19,847
1,439
900
813
604
509
467
354
247
204
25,384

: Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2010 : The numbers and trends. .16
9 10

: Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2010 : The numbers and trends. .16

17

.. 2554
(276
) 10 (2001-2010) 563.4%
(geophysical disaster ///) 17.4
212 (hydrological
disaster) (meteorological disaster
) (climatological disaster ) 10

: 14.46 . 11 .. 2554
9.0
32

.. 2443

40.5 ( 16

)
500
20

7
2.4
10

: 15,135 92.5% 65.2% 60

24%

350,000

: 3 .. 2554 45,7000
144,300
29,500 12,500 2,400

.. 2554 http://goo.gl/dH541

18

20 300 11
24-25
10 Natori

: http://www.abc.net.au/news/specials/japan-quake-2011/
11 Arahama Sendai

: http://www.abc.net.au/news/specials/japan-quake-2011/

19

: 12 .. 2554

25 (300,000 ) 200

3.7% .. 2554 3 2011

1.5%
:
3

20

30-50
9
"
100

10

11

54
( )
9

12

(Zizeeria
maha) 144 2011 2 10

6



http://www.matichon.co.th/news_detail.php?newsid=1345115667&grpid=01&catid=01
10

David Mark, Mark Willacy (April 1, 2011). "Crews 'facing 100-year battle' at Fukushima"
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-04-01/crews-facing-100-year-battle-at-fukushima/2634110
11

16 2555

170,000

12

http://www.greenpeace.org/seasia/th/news/blog1/54-reactors-down-japan-breaks-free-of-nuclear/blog/40315/

20

200,000

2022

12

climate change

internet

digital

: Global Risk Report 2012 . 31

21

3.


1)
3 1) 2) 3)

2)

3)






(
)
4) (scale):
top-down approachs bottom-up approachs
( global, regional and
local) (Marston et al.,2005)
1)
2) 3)
(multilevel)
5) : (global problem)

22

6) ( ) :
(best case scenario)
(worst-case scenario) Rosentrater (2010: 257)
, Liverman Roman Cuesta (2008)




Occupy Wall
street

offline
online

23

Debby Guha-Sapir and others (2011) Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2010 : The numbers and trends.
Center for Research on Epidemiology and Disasters. Universit catholique de Louvain Brussels,
Belgium
Debby Guha-Sapir and others (2012) Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2011 : The numbers and trends.
Center for Research on Epidemiology and Disasters. Universit catholique de Louvain Brussels,
Belgium
Femke Vos and others (2010) Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2009 : The numbers and trends. Center for
Research on Epidemiology and Disasters. Universit catholique de Louvain Brussels, Belgium
Karen OBrien (2010) Responding to environmental chabge: A new age for human geography. In Progress
in Human Geography. 35(4). P.542-549.
Liverman DM and Roman Cuesta (2008) Human interactions with the Earth system: People and pixels
revisited. Earth Surfade Process and Landform 33:1458-1471
Marston et al.,(2005) Human geography without scale. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographer.
30:416-432
Rosentrater (2010) Representing and using scenarios for responding to climate change. WIRES Climate
Change 1:253-259
Ulrich Beck. (1992). Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity.(translated by Mark Ritter) London, Newbury,
New Delhi: SAGE Publications.(introduction pp.1-8)
Ulrich Beck (2006) Living in the world risk society. in Economy and Society. 35(3) August. P.329-345
World Economic Forum (2012) Global Risks 2012 7th Edition.
http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risks-2012-seventh-edition
(2544) : 10
.
http://www.reocities.com/datamid2002/newpage1.html
. - (2555) .
: .
http://www.greenpeace.org/seasia/th/Global/seasia/report/2012/fukushima-report.pdf

24

/ /
Robert M. Danin and other (2011) The Arab World's 'Unprecedented' Protests
http://www.cfr.org/egypt/arab-worlds-unprecedented-protests/p23908 ( 2 .. 2555)
(2011)
http://prachatai.com/journal/2011/11/37910 (2 .. 2555)

2.6 : . 1
2555 http://bit.ly/QLqNgE (2 .. 2555)
" " -- - : . 18
2555
http://www.matichon.co.th/news_detail.php?newsid=1334746022&grpid=01&catid=09&subcatid=0901
Europe's lost generation: how it feels to be young
and struggling in the EU http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/28/europes-lost-generationyoung-eu This lost generation will cost us more than the cuts save
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jul/02/lost-generation-will-cost-more
" " "" : . 16 2555
http://www.matichon.co.th/news_detail.php?newsid=1345115667&grpid=01&catid=01 (2 .. 2555)
David Mark, Mark Willacy (April 1, 2011). "Crews 'facing 100-year battle' at Fukushima"
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-04-01/crews-facing-100-year-battle-at-fukushima/2634110 (2 .. 2555)
54 :
(8 2555)
http://www.greenpeace.org/seasia/th/news/blog1/54-reactors-down-japan-breaks-free-of-nuclear/blog/40315/
: .. 2554 http://goo.gl/dH541 (2 .. 2555)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/specials/japan-quake-2011/
http://www.occupytogether.org/blog/downloadable-posters/
Arab Spring http://wacsfschools.wordpress.com/2011/07/28/summer-institute-2011week-four-721-assessing-the-arab-spring-a-cairo-perspective/