*

:




, ,
, . ,
.
John Maynard Keynes,
, , 1936

.
, , ,
, Simpson (1986),
.
:
. -
.
( ) V. V
.
VI. ,
VII ,
, , ,
.

,
.
,
, 2009.
, , ,
.

.
, (.
) ( ),
( ) :1

I D / p ( I 0 G0 ) ai

(1)

C D / p C0 c(Y Inc. / p), 0 c 1

(2)

Y Inc. Y Prod.

(3)

Y Prod. pq Prod.

(4)

Y Prod. C D I D

(5)

L(Y Inc. / p, i ) B k (Y Inc. / p) hi

(6)

M S / p L(Y Inc. / p, i )

(7)

M S M0

(8)

q S ( N D )b , 0 b 1

(9)

w w0

(10)

dqS / dN D w / p

(11)

N S N0

(12)

q Prod. qS

(13)

q Pot. ( N S )b

(14)

. , ,
,
(
(9), ,
, ln q ln b ln( N ) ).
S

.
1.

: I 0 , G0 , a, C0 , c, B, k , h, M 0 , , b, w0 , N 0 ,
, , .
.
2.

(, , , ,
) :

I D , p, i, C D , Y Inc. , Y Prod. , q Prod. , L(Y Inc. / p, i ), M S , qS , N D , w, N S , q Pot.

, , 14 , ,
14 . ( ),
(. ) .2
3.

I D (, , )
(, , ) ( :
).3
(. , , )

I D / p , p ( p
( )
()).4 i . C D
.
C D / p . Y Inc.
(income) . Y Prod.
(production) .

q Prod. .
2

.
3
, D (demand), S
(supply).
4
, , , ,
-,
.

L(Y Inc. / p, i ) , ,
. M S
, , (,
M S / p ). To qS
. N D
( )
. w (, , )
( ,
.. , ). , q Pot.
(potential product potential output)
.5
4.
4.1. (1) (

), , ,
: ,
. ,

, ,
, .6 ,
a -
.
4.2. (2) (

), , ,
, Y Inc. / p , (
. .. Simpson, 1986, . 5
5

( ) :
, , , , .
6
, . (.
.. Dornbusch Fischer, 1993, . 9, Scarth, 2004, . 1). ,
(1), (2) (5)
.
(, ,
, ),
.

7-8). c .
,
c 1.
:
(Y Inc. / p) (C D / p) ( S D / p)

(15)

S D / p .
(2) (15), :
S D / p C0 s (Y Inc. / p)

(16)

s 1 c .7
4.3. To G0 ,

, i ,
.8 , I 0
C0
. ,
(ai ) (. (1)) [c(Y Inc. / p )] (. (2))
. T ( I 0 G0 ) C0
( , ) . To
I D C D , ,
, ,
Keynes, (effective demand).
4.4.

()

G0

()

, ()
. , ,
. , ( ),
,

c 1 , s 0 ( S / p ) 0 (
).
8
(. :
) ( ). ,
, . , , ,
, .
7

 ( ) .9 , ,
.
4.5. (4) Y Prod. . (3)

, ,
( . .. Dornbusch Fischer, 1993, . 2). ,
.. 100 , 2
,

Y Prod. pq Prod. 2 100 200 . .

200 . . , ,
, ,
. , ,
, , . (
) ,
. .. w 1 . ./. N D 50 . ,
W wN D 50 . . , ,
P Y Inc. W 150 . ..
4.6. (5)

:
( (5))
( (5)).
,
, , =
(, ,
(5), (13) . ).

, , . () , (-)
(, , ). ( )
, () ,
, (),
(
). ()
(.. ) , , ()
. , ()
() .

4.7. L(Y Inc. / p, i ) (. (6))

(, ,
).10 , ,
(. eynes, [1936] 2001, . 15): (i) B
( ), (ii)
o [k (Y Inc. / p)] ,

(
), (iii) o (hi )
, ,
, , ,
, ... (
).11

(7)

,
, M S / p ,
, L(Y Inc. / p, i ) . , (8)
(, , )
( ), M 0 (, .
.. Blanchard, 2006, . 4). () M 0
() .
4.8. (9) , ,

(aggregate) ( ) , ,
, qS , ( ).

L liquidity (), , ,
.
11
h -
.
( )
:
10

L(Y Inc. / p, i ) B[k (Y Inc. / p )]e hi

e . , h
,

(L / i )(i / L) h

:
, K ,
.
, K K 0 . , ,
.. Cobb and Douglas (1928), :

qS 0 ( K 0 )1b ( N D )b

q S ( N D )b
0 ( K 0 )1b 0
(total factor productivity (TFP)).12
, ( )
(. N D )
,
, w , w0 (.
(10)).
4.9. (11) (, , )

.
4.10. (12) , N S ,

N 0 .
12

, ,
(. .. Jones, 1993,
, 2006). ,
(. Blanchard, 2006, . 66-68): (i) , p K
, (ii) , p
( ,
. (5) (13), ), K ,
(iii) , K , ,
, , , , ,
,

dK / dt I net
I net I gross D
net
t I
, .
gross
, I
, , D (

depreciation),
. ,
.

4.11. (13)

(
. (5)) , qS .
4.12. (14) , .

, -
(.

N 0 N D , N D N 0 ). , ,

: q Prod. ,
(1) (13), q Pot. ,
(, q Prod. qS q Pot. ,
q Prod. qS q Pot. ,

q Pot.

).
5. Ex-ante Ex-post : (-)

: (i)
, (ii)
, (iii)
.
ex-ante ( ) , , , ,
(desired) , (actual) ex-

post ( ) . , ,
:

Y Prod. C I
Y Inc. C S W P

()
()

C , I , S ex-post , ex-post ex-post

, , W , P ex-post ex-

post , . () ,
, . ()
, , , ,

, . ,
, , ,

Y Inc. Y Prod.

()

()-()
I S

(V)

() (V) , . (
), ex-post . ,
(. (15)) , ,

Y Inc. C D S D
, ,

(V)

) (. (5))

Y Prod. C D I D

(V)

, (III), (V) (VI)

ID SD

(VII)

:
(i). ( ex-post)
( ex-post) .
(ii). , , ,
(, , ex-ante )
(, , ex-ante ).
(iii).
, (. (II) (V)):
(C C D ) ( S S D ) 0

(VIII)

(C C D ) ( I S D ) 0

(X)

, I S ,

C C D (. ex-post
ex-ante ), I S S D ( vice versa, .

I S S D , C C D ).
(iv). C C D
() , Y Prod. ( ) C D I D , , ,

10


(). () (VI) :

I ( ) ID

()

() . I I D (,
, ) ,
() , , ,
() .
, , ,
C C D .13
(v).
,
. ,
, ,
,
(
) , , , ,
. Keynes
(-)
, ,
, a

priori ( ) .
.
1.

(5) p (1), (2) (3)

:

I I
, :
, , . :
, / (
vice versa).
13

11

Y Prod. / p ( A0 ai ) / s

(17)

A0 ( I 0 G0 ) C0 s 1 c
. (4), (17)

q Prod. ( A0 ai ) / s

(18)

, (. i ),

i ( A0 sq Prod. ) / a

(18)

1. (18) (18)
, , :

i A0 / a

(19)

q Prod. A0 / s

(19)

( (19), q Prod. 0 , (19), i 0 ).

2. (18) (, , (18)) ,
q Prod. i , , ,
( q Prod. , i ),
, .
.
3.
IS ,

( (1)) ( (16)).14 ,
(1) (16)
(3) (4), (18) ( (5)). ,

( q Prod. , i ),

, , ,

( q Prod. , i ),

(. ,
5, ).
4. (18)

IS , I investment () S saving
().

14

12

q Prod. / A0 1/ s 1

(18)

1/ s
, A0 , 1 , ,
(. Keynes [1936] 2001, . 10). , ,

1 ( , , s 1 ).
2.

(6), (7) (8) :

M 0 / p B k (Y Inc. / p) hi
q , Y Inc. / p Y Prod. / p q Prod. ,

q Prod. [( M 0 / p) B hi ] / k

(20)

, (. i )

i [ B ( M 0 / p) kq Prod. ] / h

(20)

5. (20)
, , :

i [ B ( M 0 / p )] / h
q Prod. [( M 0 / p) B] / k

(21)
(21)

6. (20) (, , (20)) ,
q Prod. i , , ,
( q Prod. , i ),
( , ,
LM ). ,
(. (18)),

p.
7. ,15 p
. , q Prod. i
(18) (20), .
IS LM (. 1, LM ,
15

12 .

13

 , , p1 p2 , p1 p2 ). , ,
p
(, , q Prod. i
(18) (20)).16

i
LM ( p p2 p1 )
LM ( p p1 )

IS

q Prod.
1.

8. k 0 , ,
p , (20) , , , (18)
q Prod. . , ,
,

, :
(7)
{M 0 / p, L(i )}

(1)

(2),(3),(4),(5)
D

( I / p)

(16)

Prod.

(S D / p)

2. ,

(. .. Pasinetti, [1974] .,
. 20-22, The Economics of Effective
16

H IS-LM Hicks (1937),

- Keynes.

14

Demand)

q Prod.

) Keynes, ,
- ( i q Prod. ),
IS-LM.
3.

(18) (20),
, , , q Prod. , :

q Prod. [( M 0 / p) B (h / a) A0 ] /[k (hs / a)]

(22)

, (. p ),

p M 0 /{B [k (hs / a)]q Prod. (h / a) A0 }

(22)

, (22) (18),

i ( A0 / a){1 [ sh /(ak sh)]} [ B ( M 0 / p )][ s /(ak sh)]

(23)

9. (22) (22) (
) p q Prod.

, ,

( q Prod. , p ),
.
(aggregate) ( AD .
3).
4.

(9), (11)
N D , ,

N D [(b ) /( w / p)]1/(1b )

(24)

(10) (24) (9),

p qS ,
(aggregate)
( AS ),

qS 1/(1b ) [b /( w0 / p)]b /(1b )

(25)

, (. p ),

p [ w0 /(1/ bb)](qS )(1b ) / b

(25)

15

 , , ,
q Pot. , (14),
4 ( ,
, b 1/ 2 , ,
).
5.

(13), (22) (25) qS q Prod. p (. 5).17

, , ,
.

AS

AD

q Prod.

q Pot.

qS

4. AS

3. AD

AS
AD

p*

q*

q Pot.

q Prod. , qS

5.

17

(22) (25) ,
(22), (13) (25) , , (
, . , , , , ).

16

IV.

AD AS
. , , :
1. D

(22), AD
(. q Prod. p)
, , A0 , M 0 , c , , B, k .
, (22) A0 ( q Prod. ),
:

p / A0 [ M 0 (h / a)] / E 2

(26)

E B [k (hs / a)]q Prod. (h / a) A0 . , (22) (

),

p / h M 0 ( s / a)[q Prod. ( A0 / s )] / E 2

(27)

p / a M 0 ( sh / a 2 )[q Prod. ( A0 / s )] / E 2

(28)

, (. (19)):

p / h 0 q Prod. A0 / s

(27)

p / a 0 q Prod. A0 / s

(28)

h a
AD. , (19),
h ( a )
( ) AD ,
q Prod. .
2. AS

, (25),
AS (. q Prod.
p ) w0 (,

17

 , q Pot. ,
).18
, AD, (
5) p* q* ,
AS, p* q* .19 (
D ) :
, ,
, ,
(. (24)).
( S
), -:
(i). w0 , : q*
q* ( )

N D , . , ,

p* .

N D ,

, , (. (24)),
, , p*
w0 (: p * 0 ( w0 / p* ) w 0 p * 0

w 0 p * 0 , ^
).
(ii). , w0 : (25),
w0 ,
18

w0 , . Keynes ([1936] 2001, . 19). ,

, (New Growth Theory) ,

, (Endogenous Growth Theory),
1980 ( , . Gylfason, 1999),

, 0 (., ,
, Anchishkin,[1973] 1977, ch. 8).
0 .
19

,
(implicit functions) ( , , ),
. .. Felderer Homburg (1991, . 369-371).

18

 bp )
q S [1/(1 b)](

(25)

( ),
(25) ,
bp 0
bp

(25)

(24)
p )
N D [1/(1 b)](
p

(24)
(25)

p (1 b) p ( 0) , (24),

p , . ,

(
, .
).
: ( )
.

,
( w0 ) , ,
. ,

w0 , , , ,
.20
V.

,
AD
, , p* q* . ,
:

20

:
, ;

19

1. A0

p , (23) ,
, .21
2. M 0

q Prod. , (22)
p / M 0 , , M 0 / p (,
M 0 , , p

p (dp / p ) M 0 (dM 0 / M 0 ) ).

, (23), ,
, .
,
(, , )
,
(short-run multipliers of fiscal and monetary policy):
(22) ( M 0 / p ) A0 ,

dq Prod. mM d ( M 0 / p) mF dA0

(29)

mM 1/[k (hs / a )] ,

(

, .

A0 ),

mF (h / a ) /[k (hs / a)] ,

(, ,
A0 ) ( ).22
, mM k , s, h / a ,
mF h / a
21

(23) A0 / a

{1 [ sh /(ak sh)]} , , , .
22

M 0

A0 p , , , (. 12
). , (18).

20

 k , s . , (29)

(liquidity trap) (investment trap):
1. h .

mM 0 mF 1/ s

(30)

M 0 ,
A0 . ,
, , (22),

q Prod. A0 / s

(31)

, , AD q , A0 / s ,
M 0 . , , h , LM
i , , M 0 (.
(20) 1).23
2. a 0 .

, , (30) (31), , , IS

q Prod. (. (18) 1),

M 0 i q Prod. .
,
AD , , .
, h 0 a ,
mM 1/ k mF 0 : AD q ,

23

L(Y Inc. / p, i ) B k (Y Inc. / p) h(i i0 )

i0 . , LM
i i0 {[ B ( M 0 / p) kq Prod. ] / h}
h , i i0 .

21

 [( M 0 / p) B ] / k (. (22)), , ,
.24
, , /
I 0 , C0 , a h (
, , Keynes [1936] 2001, . 12 15),
( ) ,
, ,
.25
V.

, , , 5,
: (1)
(demand-pull inflation) (2) (cost-push

inflation). :
1.

AD (. V, 1,
) p* . ,
(. q Pot. ),
, ,

p*

(, , ). ,
A0 ,
(. (18)),
24

, , mF 1/ s

mM 1/ k , ( )
, ( )
.
25
( ) () ,
, , 1992-2002,
( ) (. ),
, ,
, , 1996 ,
1% ( ,
, 1990, , . Blanchard,
2006, . 524-532).

22

 M 0 , p*
M 0 (, .
(22)) , , (. (23) ,
, (20)).
2. ( )

AS (. V, 2,
), w0 ,
p* q* , , , (.
(18) , , (23)).
, ,
(. )
, , ,
.
(, ,
) (stagflation)26, ,
, 1970 (
1973-1975), (
, . .. Dornbusch Fischer, 1993, .
604-607, , . .. Krugman Obstfeld, 2003,
. 19). , , ,

,
, ( )
( , , ..
AD w0 ; ,
;).
, , () (.
VII, 1, ).

26

stagnation (-)
inflation.

23

VII.

,
, ,
, . , ,
, (i)
, , , (ii)

/ , (iii)

, .27
,

q D ( I D C D ) / p , , q Inc. Y Inc. / p , (
) , q Prod. Y Prod. / p , ,
, (, , - . 6).28
[q D ]

q Inc.

q Prod.

6.

27

, .
Samuelson Nordhaus, 2000, . 32,
, . Screpanti Zamagni, 2003, . 6-7, , 2004, . 9-17.
28

, , ,
(, . .. , 2006, . 1). ,
..
,

.

24


( ) , . ,
. , ,
, ,
.29 ,
, ,
:
1.

, , .

(, , ) (

w f (( N S N D ) / N S ) , Phillips . Phillips, 1958).

(. .. Dornbusch Fischer, 1993, .
13-14 17).
2.

(, , ). . Kalecki . aldor ,
1930 , (
. .. Jones, 1993, . 6),
(.
).

(..
),
(
).30
29

, . .. Dornbusch Fischer (1993, . 3, 5

16). , . .. (2005). ,
, . .. Krugman Obstfeld (2003, . 12-16), Blanchard
(2006, . 18-21).
30
ichal Kalecki,
K. Marx ( 2 ,
, , , , [1893] 1981),
,
Keynes (. , [1965] .., 2, Laski, 1987).

25

3. (-) (

, ,
),
(, , ),
.
R. F. Harrod E. D. Domar,
1930-1950,
(. .. Jones, 1993, . 3), J.
Steindl
( , .
Dutt, 1990, Bhaduri and Marglin, 1990,
, , ). ,
, Phillips,
,
, , .
( . Goodwin,
1967, (-) , .
Gabisch and Lorenz, 1989, Abraham-Frois et Berrebi, 1995, , 2006).
4. Piero Sraffa, .

(1960),
,
(produced means of production),
(
) (..

).31 , ,

31

,
(primary input) , , ( .. ), ,
: ,
(produced inputs),
.

26


, , .32
, ,

, , ,
.33 ,
, ( )
, ,

(.

, ), ()
, , .

, , . , ,
, , , .

Abraham-Frois, G. et Berrebi, E. (1995) Instabilit, Cycles, Chaos (Paris:

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, . . (2005) (: ).
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Economics, 14, pp. 375-393.

Blanchard, O. (2006) (: ).

32

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, . Pasinetti (1991) Kurz and Salvadori (1995). , ,
- , , ,
Sraffa
, , D. Ricardo, (, , )
.
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(: ).
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30