Professional Documents
Culture Documents
6
The Manager as a Decision Maker
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
6-2
making: the process by which managers respond to opportunities and threats by analyzing options, and making decisions about goals and courses of action. Decisions in response to opportunities: managers respond to ways to improve organizational performance. Decisions in response to threats: occurs when managers are impacted by adverse events to the organization.
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
6-3
Non-programmed
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6-4
model of decision making: a prescriptive model that tells how the decision should be made.
Assumes managers have access to all the information needed to reach a decision. Managers can then make the optimum decision by easily ranking their own preferences among alternatives.
Unfortunately,
mangers often do not have all (or even most) required information.
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
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Challenged the classical assumptions that managers have and process all the information.
Bounded
rationality: There is a large number of alternatives and information is vast so that managers cannot consider it all.
Incomplete
information: most managers do not see all alternatives and decide based on incomplete information.
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
6-7
Ambiguous Information
Incomplete Information
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issues:
Risk: managers know a given outcome can fail or succeed and probabilities can be assigned. Uncertainty: probabilities cannot be given for outcomes and the future is unknown. Many decision outcomes are not known such as a new product introduction. Ambiguous information: information whose meaning is not clear. Information can be interpreted in different ways.
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
6-9
constraints and Information costs: Managers do not have the time or money to search for all alternatives.
Satisficing:
Managers explore a limited number of options and choose an acceptable decision rather than the optimum decision.
This is the response of managers when dealing with incomplete information. Managers assume that the limited options they examine represent all options.
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good alternatives are missed, the resulting decision is poor. It is hard to develop creative alternatives, so managers need to look for new ideas.
3. Evaluate alternatives: what are the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative?
Managers
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
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5. Implement choose alternative: managers must now carry out the alternative.
Often
6. Learn from feedback: managers should consider what went right and wrong with the decision and learn for the future.
Without
feedback, managers never learn from experience and make the same mistake over.
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
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Evaluating Alternatives
Figure 6.5
Practical?
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Evaluating Alternatives
Is
it legal? Managers must first be sure that an alternative is legal both in this country and abroad for exports. Is it ethical? The alternative must be ethical and not hurt stakeholders unnecessarily. Is it economically feasible? Can our organizations performance goals sustain this alternative? Is it practical? Does the management have the capabilities and resources to do it?
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
6-15
Cognitive Biases
Suggests
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6-16
Prior Hypothesis
Representativeness Illusion of Control
Cognitive Biases
Escalating Commitment
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
6-17
6-18
Groups tend to reduce cognitive biases and can call on combined skills, and abilities.
There are some disadvantages with groups: Group think: biased decision making resulting from group members striving for agreement.
Usually occurs when group members rally around a central mangers idea (CEO), and become blindly committed without considering alternatives. The group tends to convince each member that the idea must go forward.
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
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Advocacy: one member of the group acts as the devils advocate and critiques the way the group identified alternatives.
Dialectical
inquiry: two different groups are assigned to the problem and each group evaluates the other groups alternatives.
Top managers then hear each group present their alternatives and each group can critique the other.
Promote
diversity: by increasing the diversity in a group, a wider set of alternatives may be considered.
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
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Devils Advocacy
Presentation of alternative Critique of alternative Reassess alternative
accept, modify, reject
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Dialectic Inquiry
Alter. 1 Alter. 2
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Learning: Managers seek to improve members ability to understand the organization and environment so as to raise effectiveness.
The learning organization: managers try to improve the peoples ability to behave creatively to maximize organizational learning .
Creativity:
is the ability of the decision maker to discover novel ideas leading to a feasible course of action.
A creative management staff and employees are the key to the learning organization.
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
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Irwin/McGraw-Hill
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
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Individual Creativity
Organizations
Thus,
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
6-25
Production
cannot absorb all information being presented during the session and can forget their own alternatives.
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
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the production blocking problem. Similar to brainstorming except that each member is given time to first write down all alternatives he or she would suggest. Alternatives are then read aloud without discussion until all have been listed. Then discussion occurs and alternatives are ranked.
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
6-27
Technique: provides for a written format without having all managers meet face-to-face.
is distributed in written form to managers who then generate written alternatives. Responses are received and summarized by top managers. These results are sent back to participants for feedback, and ranking. The process continues until consensus is reached. Delphi allows distant managers to participate.
Problem
Irwin/McGraw-Hill