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The Harley Market Letter For November 21, 2008
The Harley Market Letter For November 21, 2008
STOCK MARKET
7,500 Dow Support; 750 S&P Support
Four and a half years of bull market wiped out in
one year. A precipitous decline to be sure.
1
On the time-side of the analysis
equation, I believe we probably hit a
momentum low today and are likely to
see some modest buoyancy in the short
term. Readers may recall a cycle that I
identified as being 107-108 TDs last year
that marked the August 2007 and
January 2008 lows. That 107-108 TD
cycle is actually the half-span harmonic
of a periodic function that averages 213
trading days or 44 weeks. I’ve traced
this cycle back to the 08-Oct-1998 low
point. This cycle has been quite regular
in its beat. The chart on page 1 shows
0.786 Retracement that the occurrences of this cycle have –
in all but one instance – marked low
points in the stock market. The troughs
depicted in the chart show that although
this cycle has coincided with important
market turns, most of the inflection
S&P 500 Cash Index
377 Trading Days (TDs)
points have not been the terminal points
0
11-Oct-07 High
in a move. For that reason, I am inclined
to believe the move out of today’s low is
31-Oct-07 High likely to be akin to the move out of the
-20
December 31, 2002 (or October 10,
226 (233) TDs
2002) low. Those lows preceded the 12-
19-May-08 High Mar-03 cycle bottom by 54 and 108
-40
15-Jul-08L
April 13 – May 01, 2009 time period
01-Oct-07 23-Jan-08 14-May-08 04-Sep-08 24-Dec-08 20-Apr-09
looks very interesting from a cyclical
144%R 20% S.F. 4% S.F. perspective for the next bull market to
begin.
-5
-10
-15
-20
84.6 TD Cycles
-25
2
Fibonacci Number 377
Appears to be the
Dominant Factor in
Defining Most Market
Cycles
Those of you that have followed my
work for some time are well-aware of
my premise that the Fibonacci number
377 seems to be the dominant factor in
defining most market cycles. I have
found 377 unit cycles to exist across the
spectrum of time frames on yearly,
monthly, weekly, daily, hourly and even
five-minute charts. If there is a magic
number in the markets, it most definitely
is the number 377.
3
NASDAQ Comp. vs. DJIA
400 6
300
Thousands
200 3
100
0 0
01/11/2001
08/24/2001
10/18/1999
05/31/2000
04/16/2002
11/25/2002
07/11/2003
02/24/2004
10/06/2004
05/19/2005
12/30/2005
08/15/2006
03/30/2007
11/09/2007
06/25/2008
02/06/2009
NASDAQ 1999-2009 DJIA 1929-1939
40
5
35
4
NASDAQ Comp. (Red)
NIKKEI-225 (Green)
30
Thousands
Thousands
25
2
20
1
15
10 0
01/11/2001
08/24/2001
10/18/1999
05/31/2000
04/16/2002
11/25/2002
07/11/2003
02/24/2004
10/06/2004
05/19/2005
12/30/2005
08/15/2006
03/30/2007
11/09/2007
06/25/2008
02/06/2009
4
323.1 Week /
“Six-Year” Cycles
Probably the most dominant – and most
reliable – of all the long-term cycles that
I track is a 215.4 week or “four-year”
cycle. I have found that the June 13,
1949 low point has provided what I call
the “anchor point” from which I project
the 215.4 week recurring market rhythm.
The black triangles at the bottom of the
center graph reflect the 215.4 week
successive beats from that 1949 low
point. Notice how precisely this has
defined most of the bottoms of the last
20 years.
5
U.S. Treasury Bonds
For some time bonds have maintained a
contra-cyclical effect with the equity
115’20 markets. As stocks have fallen, bond
Price Octave prices have risen, and vice versa. The
108 TD cyclical function I have
overlayed on the chart at left lines up
with cyclical high points in the bonds –
as well as cyclical low points in the stock
market. The bond market is – to put it
mildly – excessively overbought. The
panic buying this week may well turn
out to reflect an “island reversal” on the
charts. This fact – coupled with the
arrival date of this 108 TD cyclical
108 TD Cycles
function – leads me to believe that bonds
Derivation: 377 X 2 / 7 = 108 are ripe for a sharp pullback beginning
right away. It would not surprise me at
all to see a rapid retracement back down
to the 115 20/32nds line once again.
*************************************************
PRECIOUS METALS
Since topping out on March 18th, gold traded on
the Comex has continued to make a series of
lower highs, lower lows. It’s my view that the
metals complex has seen its bull market top and 750 Price Octave
we are now in a bear market decline that could Support
last two-three years.
7,500 for the Dow, 750 for the S&P, 750 for
Comex gold. Sound familiar? At any rate, it
would appear that gold has found short-term
support at its 750 price octave. But I view any
rally from here as counter-trend in nature. My
next 69.2 TD cycle is due right around the end of
December. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the
metals hold up until that date, with the next
occurrence in this cycle marking the high-point
reversal – from what-ever price point that occurs.
Next floor of support on the way down: 625.
The XAU would appear to have found short-term
support at its 75 price octave. In the rebound, I
look for this index to push back at least to its 100
price octave – then reverse back to the downside.