Seasonality Analysis

Adjustment to time series data due to variations at certain periods.

Adjust with seasonal index - ratio of average value of the item in a season to the overall annual average value.

Seasonal Forecasting
The actual demand for ABC Companys product is 7100 units. This products demand is believed to follow a seasonal pattern, and the seasonal index for this time period is 1.9, find the de-seasonalized sales for this period

Seasonal Forecasting
The actual demand for ABC Companys product is 7100 units. This products demand is believed to follow a seasonal pattern, and the seasonal index for this time period is 1.9, find the de-seasonalized sales for this period 7100/1.9 = 3737

Seasonal Forecasting
If three of the quarterly seasonal indices for a set of data are 1.3, 0.7, and 0.7, then the forth seasonal index is ???

Seasonal Forecasting
If three of the quarterly seasonal indices for a set of data are 1.3, 0.7, and 0.7, then the forth seasonal index is ??? 1.3 + .7 + .7 + X = 4

Seasonal Forecasting
The trend of the demand of a seasonal item has been modeled as: Demand=13*t + 400, where t = time in quarters, beginning Q1 2010. Seasonality for the four quarterly periods is given in the table below. Find the seasonality forecast for Q4 of 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 0.9522 1.0000 0.9888

Seasonal Forecasting
The trend of the demand of a seasonal item has been modeled as: Demand=13*t + 400, where t = time in quarters, beginning Q1 2010. Seasonality for the four quarterly periods is given in the table below. Find the seasonality forecast for Q4 of 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 0.9522 1.0000 0.9888

Q4 = 4-(.9522+1.0+.9888) = 1.059 Q4/2011 = (13(8)+400) * 1.059 = 534

Need to KnowExam #2

Time Series Forecast Seasonality Forecasting Models Alpha impacts Exponential Trendline Forecasting Smoothing BIAS, MAD, MAPE, MSD, Slope SD How to read a Statistical Regression Forecasting Summary R-Squared P-Value Standard Deviation Seasonal Index Qualitative Models