Professional Documents
Culture Documents
D N M RNG
Mi nm cc doanh nghip ln v nh chi tiu nhiu tin vo u t vn. Cc u t ny
vch ra hng hot ng trong tng lai ca 1 cng ty. Ni chung, hin nay cc cng ty i hi
cc c tnh chi tit v cc dng tin d kin t c t cc nh u t ca mnh. iu ny
khng ch p dng i vi cc nh my v thit b mi m cn cho cc nh u t trong nhng
chng trnh: qung co, nghin cu pht trin. V vy, vn cp thit l vic phn tch u t
vn phi thc hin ng n. Chng ny trin khai cc nguyn tc u t vn nhn mnh
n vic c tnh cc dng tin t 1 d n.
Trc khi hoch nh dng tin cho d n u t, c cc ni dung chnh cn nm
nh sau:
- Chi ph s dng vn: Chi ph phi tr cho vic s dng cc ngun vn cho 1 doanh
nghip. Chi ph ny tiu biu cho t sut i hi mong i m 1 DN cn phi t c t cc
nh u t ca mnh, v vy chi ph s dng vn l mt ni dung quan trng trong qu trnh
hoch nh ngn sch vn. Chi ph s dng vn l c s chn la 1 trong nhiu d n u t
vn khc nhau.
- Kh nng ti chnh: Khi 1 DN c vn u t vo tt c cc d n tiu chun
gi l DN hot ng khng b hn ch vn. Tuy nhin, tng chi ph ban u ca d n c th
chp nhn c trong trng hp khng c hn ch vn thng ln hn tng ngun vn DN c
sn u t vo cc d n => cn thit phi hoch nh ngn sch vn trong iu kin ngun
vn b hn ch (s tm hiu trong chng 11: Vn dng cc phng php thm nh d n trong
thc tin).
- Bn bc chnh trong qu trnh hoch nh ngn sch vn: (1) Cc xut v d n
u t. (2) D n dng tin. (3) Thm nh cc kh nng la chn; la chn cc mc chi ph s
dng vn chit khu dng tin v chn cc d n thc hin. (4) Xem xt kt qu 1 d n
sau khi thc hin v nh gi phn tch kt qu ca d n sau khi d n c thc hin.
- Cc d n u t c th l: D n m rng, d n thay th, d n nhm p ng cc
yu cu php l, cc tiu chun sc khe v an ton.
- Chi ph ban u cn thc hin 1 d n gi l u t thun bao gm: (1) Gi tr ti
sn sau khi lp t. (2) Cng vi cc nhu cu vn lun chuyn ban u. (3) Tr i cc dng tin
thu vo t vic bn ti sn thay th. (4) Cng thm hoc tr i cc khon thu i km vi vic
bn ti sn hin c hoc vic mua cc ti sn mi.
D N M RNG
Page 1
Mua 1 thit b mi, 1 bt ng sn hay m rng 1 sn phm hay 1 ngnh dch v hin
c hoc bc vo 1 lnh vc kinh doanh mi.
Thay th TSC hin c, nh 1 my khoan chng hn.
Chi ph cho 1 chin dch qung co.
Chi ph cho 1 chng trnh nghin cu pht trin.
Cc u t vo vic gia tng thng xuyn mc hng tn kho hay cc khon phi thu
mc tiu.
Cc u t vo vic gio dc v hun luyn nhn vin.
La chn tri phiu mi c li sut thp hn thay cho tri phiu c.
Phn tch thu ti sn vi vic mua ti sn.
Thm nh st nhp v hp nht.
D N M RNG
Page 2
Hnh 9.1 M hnh d tho ngn sch vn n gin ha. (VT: triu USD)
u t (triu la)
Hnh 9.1 Minh ha 1 m hnh hot ng ngn sch vn n gin ha. M hnh ny gi nh
cc d n c cng ri ro.
D n A i hi khon u t 2 triu USD v d kin pht sinh t sut sinh li 24%.
D N M RNG
Page 3
M hnh hoch nh ngn sch vn c bn cho thy rng, trn nguyn tc, DN nn thc
hin cc d n A, B, C, D, E v li nhun d kin cao hn chi ph s dng vn bin t ca DN.
Tuy nhin, khng may l trn thc t vic lp cc quyt nh ti chnh l khng n gin.
Mt s vn gp phi trn thc t trong vic p dng m hnh trn l:
Vo bt k thi im no DN c th s khng bit tt c cc d n vn c sn cho mnh.
Hu ht cc DN, cc chi tiu vn c xut lin tc da trn kt qu ca chng trnh
nghin cu pht trin, thay i cc iu kin th trng, cng ngh mi,... nh vy, s d n
tng t nh 9.1 c th cha hon tt vo thi im lp cc quyt nh chi tiu vn.
Trong a s cc trng hp 1 DN ch c th a ra cc php tnh khng chc chn v chi
ph v thu nhp tng lai ca d n (t sut sinh li ca d n). Mt vi d n ny s ri ro hn
cc d n khc. Mt d n cng nhiu ri ro mun c chp nhn thc hin th t sut sinh li
i hi phi ln hn.
Mc d gp phi nhiu kh khn, tt c cc DN u phi lp cc quyt nh u t vn. Qu
trnh ny c bn bao gm cc bc (chng 9, 10, 11):
1)
2)
3)
4)
a ra cc xut v d n u t vn
c tnh cc dng tin
Thm nh cc kh nng chn la v chn cc d n thc hin
Xem xt thnh qu ca 1 d n v phng php nh gi sau khi d n kt thc.
II. A RA CC XUT V D N U T VN
D N M RNG
Page 4
K ton chi ph
K s cng ngh
Nghin cu th trng
Nghin cu pht trin v huy hoch doanh nghip.
Phn loi d n u t
D n u t m rng: D n u t m rng quy m, nng cao cng sut, nng lc
kinh doanh, i mi cng ngh, nng cao cht lng sn phm, gim nhim mi trng, hnh
thnh trn c s d n c hot ng , khng phi l mt d n c lp, tch bit.
V d: Mt doanh nghip sn xut mt sn phm c th c mc cu d kin s gia tng
trong cc nm sp ti .Nhng hin nay doanh nghip khng p ng cc nhu cu hin ti,
nn trin khai cc xut nhm gia tng nng sut .
Do cc sn phm hin c u tr nn li thi => tng trng ca doanh nghip ph
thuc vo vic trin khai v tip th sn phm mi => u t nghin cu pht trin, nghin cu
th trng, u t tip th sn phm mi.
VD: cng ngh khai thc khong sn tip tc tng trng, cc DN phi lin tc u
t vo cng tc thm d v khai thc. Nm 1996, ch tiu vn cho du v kh thin nhin ca
Exxon l 6,6 t USD. Trong 4,7 l dnh cho lnh vc thm d v khai thc.
D n thay th: Nu cc sn phm tr nn li thi theo th gian, th nh my, ti sn,
thit b v quy trnh sn xut cng tr nn li thi => chi ph bo tr cao, thi gian ngng vic
nhu => ch ph hot ng cao. Cc nh u t nn tit gim chi ph , bao gm vic thay th cc
my mc thit b c k, li thi bng thit b mi c nng sut cao hn.
Cc d n pht sinh p ng cc yu cu php l, cc tiu chun sc khe v an
ton: D n bao gm cc xut u t cho nng thit b kim sot nhim, thng gi v
phng chy.
V d: Mt cng ty A mun xy dng mt nh my thp. Quyt nh ny s Cph thuc
vo vic u t cho mt s thit b chng nhim theo lut php ca tng quc gia. Nh vy
quyt nh u t nh my ph thuc vo tng chi ph ca nh my, bao gm cc thit b chng
nhim, ch khng ch ring my mc, thit b hot ng.
D N M RNG
Page 5
+50.000$
+40.000$
+30.000$
4
+25.000$
5
+5000$
Hnh 9.2 cho thy cc dng tin d kin ca mt d n c th. Sau mt khon u t thun ban
u 100.000 la, d n d kin pht sinh mt lung cc dng tin thun thu vo qua vng i
d kin 5 nm l 50.000$ trong nm 1, 40.000$ trong nm 2, 30.000$ trong nm 3, 25.000$
trong nm 4; v 5.000$ trong nm 5. Loi d n ny c gi l mt d n bnh thng.
Cc d n khng bnh thng c cc mu hnh dng tin hn mt ln thay i du. Bng
9.2 minh ha cc m hnh dng tin cho ba d n mu. Cc d n X, Y v Z c th gy nn mt
s vn v phn tch. D n X c th i hi doanh nghip phi cho ngng hot ng mt
thit b no trang b li goc sa cha ln trong nm th ba. D n Y c th l mt u t
vo mt m khong sn, vi dng tin m trong nm th 5 tiu biu cho cc chi ph t b i
km vi vic ng ca m sau khi tr lng c khai thc ht. Cui cng, d n Z c th
tiu biu cho u t vo cc thit b kim sot nhim.
Bt k dng tin d n l bnh thng hay khng bnh thng, cn p dng mt s cc
nguyn tc c bn sau y trong vic nh gi:
Dng tin nn c o lng trn c s tng thm Incremental Basis
Ni cch khc, nn nh gi dng tin cho mt d n c th trn gc ton b dng
tin ca doanh nghip s b tc ng nh th no nu d n c chp nhn so vi tc ng khi
d n khng c chp nhn. V vy, nn a vo phn phn tch tt c cc thay i trong dng
D N M RNG
Page 6
-100.000
+80.000
+60.000
-50.000
+75.000
+60.000
-200.000
+150.000
+50.000
+40.000
+30.000
-20.000
-150.000
-20.000
-20.000
-25.000
+25.000
-30.000
Page 7
D N M RNG
Page 8
D N M RNG
Page 9
D N M RNG
Page 10
Ch tiu tin
mt
PVF
(r,n)
Hin gi thun ca u t
100.000$
1,000
100.000$
30.000$
0,909
27.270$
200.000$
0,826
16.520$
Nm
143.790$
D N M RNG
Page 11
OEBT(1-T)
(9.2)
R tr i cc thay i trong cc chi
(9.3)
(9.4)
Thay th phng trnh 9.4 vo phng trnh 9.1 s cho ta nh nghi v dng tin thun:
NCF = ( R - O - Dep)(1-T) + Dep - NWC
(9.5)
NCF= [(R2 R1 )- (O2 O1) + (Dep2 Dep1 )](1-T) + (Dep2 Dep1) - NWC (9.6)
Li vay v dng tin thun
D N M RNG
Page 12
D N M RNG
Page 13
D N M RNG
Page 14
Khon mc chi ph
Thnh tin
trc thu
VAT
Thnh tin
sau thu
Ghi ch
Chi ph xy dng
20,636,191
2,063,619
22,699,810
Gxl
Chi ph thit b
36,363,636
3,636,364
40,000,000
Gtb
Chi ph t vn
1,526,177
152,618
1,678,795
Gtv
Chi ph qun l d n
1,115,806
111,581
1,227,386
Gql
D N M RNG
Page 15
Chi ph khc
705,998
70,600
776,598
Gk
Chi ph t
15,000,000
15,000,000
D phng ph
3,017,390
301,739
3,319,129
Gdp
Cng
78,365,199
6,336,520
84,701,718
Tng mc u t
84,701,718
Nm
Nm 2012
STT Hng mc
Qu I
Qu II
Qu III
Qu IV
Vn ch s hu
13.547.314.000
31.610.398.000
Cng
45.157.712.000
Nm
STT Hng mc
1
2
Nm 2013
Qu I
Qu II
Qu III
Qu IV
Vn ch s
hu
1.911.810
1.911.810
1.911.810
1.911.810
Vn vay ngn
hng
4.460.890
Cng
6.372.700
D N M RNG
T l
30%
4.460.890
4.460.890
4.460.890
70%
6.372.700
6.372.700
6.372.700
Page 16
Hin gi ca u t thun
Chi tiu
PVF(r,n)
Qu I-2012
45.157.712.000
1,000
45.157.712.000
Qu II-2012
12.321.953.000
0,9524
11.735.428.000
Qu III-2012
949.567.000
0,907
861.257.000
Qu IV 2012
781.687.000
0,8638
675.221.000
Qu I-2013
6.372.700.000
0,8227
5.242.820.000
Qu II-2013
6.372.700.000
0,7835
4.993.010.000
Qu III-2013
6.372.700.000
0,7462
4.755.308.000
Qu IV-2013
6.372.700.000
0,7107
4.529.077.000
Tng cng
77.949.833.000
T l vn vay
S tin vay
70%
59,291,203
ngn ng
nm
= 28
Qu
Nm
=8
Qu
Li vay/thng
20%
thng
Li vay/qu
5%
Qu
Thi gian tr n
20
Qu
n hn
D N M RNG
Page 17
H s hiu qu
1
DOANH THU T X L RC CN
1.1
2016
2017
0.8
0.9
76,560
76,560
27,944,400
27,944,400
27,944,400
27,944,400
7.5
14,591,245
16,415,150
19,151,009
19,151,009
Sn lng (m/nm)
1,585
1,783
1,982
1,982
n gi (ngn ng/m)
1,320
1,320
1,386
1,386
2,092,477
2,354,036
2,746,376
2,746,376
Sn lng (tn/nm)
1,524
1,715
1,905
1,905
n gi (ngn ng/tn)
3,400
3,400
3,570
3,570
5,182,416
5,830,218
6,801,921
6,801,921
609,696
685,908
762,120
762,120
12
12
13
13
7,316,352
8,230,896
9,602,712
9,602,712
Gch Block
Phn vi sinh
Doanh thu
1.3
2015
76,560
Doanh thu
1.2
2014
n gi x l (ngn ng/kg)
v: 1000
Du FO
Sn lng (lt/nm)
n gi (ngn ng/lt)
Doanh thu
TNG DOANH THU
D N M RNG
Page 18
2017
224,174,245
225,998,150
235,021,499
235,021,499
181,944,124
184,536,442
186,670,912
185,519,210
Chi ph hot ng
165,288,887
167,432,306
171,938,425
173,158,371
6,135,263
6,135,263
6,135,263
6,135,263
Li nhun gp
42,230,121
41,461,709
48,350,586
49,502,288
Chi ph li vay
10,968,873
8,597,224
6,225,576
3,853,928
31,261,249
32,864,484
42,125,010
45,648,360
4,223,012
4,146,171
4,835,059
4,950,229
27,038,236
28,718,313
37,289,951
40,698,131
Nhn xt: D n thu li cao t nm u tin hot ng v tip tc tng cc nm tip theo.
D N M RNG
Page 19
165.288.887
6.135.263
167.432.306
6.135.263
171.938.425
6.135.263
173.158.371
6.135.263
42.230.121
4.223.012
41.461.709
4.146.171
48.350.586
4.835.059
49.502.288
4.950.229
38.007.108
37.315.538
43.515.527
45.552.059
6.135.263
6.135.263
6.135.263
6.135.263
47.142.371
46.450.801
49.650.790
51.687.322
D N M RNG
Page 20