Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Nin kha 2011-2013

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

Ti liu ca Ngn hng Th gii

Bo co s: 24692

TI LIU THM NH D N
V N BO LNH RI RO MT PHN
TRONG HP TC PHT TRIN QUC T
VI GI TR LN N 75 TRIU USD
CA KHON VAY HP VN NGN HNG THNG MI
DNH CHO CNG TY TNHH NNG LNG MEKONG
TRONG D N IN PH M 2 GIAI ON 2
TI NC CNG HA X HI CH NGHA VIT NAM

29-8-2002

n v pht trin lnh vc nng lng

Khu vc ng v Thi Bnh Dng

World Bank

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

Ph lc 2: M t chi tit d n
D n in Ph M 2 Giai on 2 Vit Nam
Gii thiu
D n bao gm mt nh my pht in theo chu trnh hn hp s dng nhin liu kh t vi
cng sut 715 MW, s c xy dng, s hu v vn hnh trn c s BOT bi mt cng ty trch
nhim hu hn thnh lp Vit Nam, Cng ty TNHH Nng lng Mekong (MECO). Nh my
s c xy dng trn a bn Trung tm pht in Ph M (PMPGC) do EVN iu hnh v
ta lc trong khu Phc hp Cng nghip Ph M B Ra Vng Tu gn thnh ph H Ch
Minh.
D n s c thc hin theo Hp ng BOT thi hn 20 nm. D n s bn cho EVN thuc s
hu nh nc ton b sn lng in c sn xut bng phng tin sn xut ca nh my da
vo Hp ng mua in (PPA) thi hn 20 nm. Nh my s s dng nhin liu kh t ni a
c cung ng bi Cng ty Du kh Vit Nam thuc s hu nh nc, gi tt l PetroVietnam
(PV) trn c s tng xng da vo Hp ng bn kh t nhin (GSA) thi hn 20 nm. Kh t
s c khai thc t bn trng Nam Cn Sn thuc s hu lin kt ca cc nh pht trin t nhn
v PV, v s c vn chuyn trn t lin bng h thng ng ng dn kh Nam Cn Sn ang
c xy dng bi cc nh pht trin bn trng. Nc nguyn liu lm mt v cc dch v c
s h tng khc s c cung ng cho D n xut theo tha thun chia x c s h tng vi
EVN; nc cng nghip x l v nc c th ung c s c cung ng bi Cng ty cp
nc BR-VT. t s dng cho D n xut s thu t Cng ty Xy dng Pht trin th tnh
BR-VT (UDEC). D n xut c th bao gm vic xy dng mt ng truyn ngn 500 kV t
nh my n trm trung chuyn Ph M 500 kV trong phm vi PMPGC. in sn xut ra s
c a ln ng dy 500 kV Ph M - TPHCM ang c xy dng bi EVN vi h tr ti
chnh t Ngn hng Hp tc Quc t Nht Bn (JBIC), vic ti tr s c y thc vo thng 102003.
MECO l mt cng ty trch nhim hu hn c thnh lp v u t bi tp on EDF
International (t l gp vn s hu: 56.25%), chi nhnh thuc s hu ton b ca cng ty
Electricite de France ca Php (EDF); cng ty Sumitomo ca Nht Bn (vn s hu: 28,125%);
v TEPCO International (TEPCI) (vn s hu: 15,625%), chi nhnh thuc s hu hon ton ca
cng ty in lc Tokyo ca Nht Bn (TEPCO) (gi chung l cc ch u t). Cc ch u t
bao gm hai cng ty in hng u trn th gii v mt cng ty thng mi ton cu hng u.
Cc ch u t c chn sau qui trnh u thu cnh tranh quc t do chnh ph thc hin thng
qua B Cng nghip (MOI) v k kt D n vo thng 1-1999.
Tnh trng chun b d n
Cc ti liu d n then cht, bao gm Hp ng BOT gia MOI v MECO, PPA gia EVN v
MECO, GSA gia PV v MECO, Th bo lnh ca chnh ph gia B K hoch v u t
(MPI) v MECO, c k kt v D n c Chnh ph cp Giy php u t (IL) vo
ngy 18-9-2001. Hp ng BOT gia MECO v chnh ph c i din bi MOI trnh by c
ch lut php, qui nh v thu, xc nh quyn li v ngha v ca mi bn, v trnh by cc h
qu v bin php khc phc i vi s vi phm ngha v hay s xut hin cc s kin bt kh
World Bank

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

khng. Theo Th bo lnh ca chnh ph gia MECO v chnh ph c i din bi MPI,

chnh ph bo lnh cho vic thc hin hp l v ng hn cc ngha v ca mi i tc pha Vit
Nam trong cc tha thun d n then cht, bao gm cc ngha v thanh ton.
Theo Hp ng BOT, cc ch u t d kin v c ngha v phi hon tt h s ti tr d n
trong vng 12 thng sau ngy cp IL, ngha l trc thng 9-20021; v phi t c Ngy hot
ng thng mi (COD) ca d n trong vng 24 thng sau ngy khi cng xy dng. Vic y
thc phng tin sn xut bt u hot ng c d tr trc thng 9-2004.
S c cu d n
B Cng nghip

Hp ng
BOT

UDEC, BR-VT

B KH-T
Giy php
u t +
bo lnh
chnh ph
Hp ng
cp nc

Hp ng
thu t
Hp ng
cung cp kh

MECO

PetroVietnam

Hp ng
mua in

EVN`
Hp ng
EPC

EDF-CNET

Cng ty cp nc
BR-VT

Hp ng
dch v
di hn

GEII

Hp ng dch
v k thut

EDF/TEPCO

Cc ch u t
EDFI l chi nhnh thuc s hu hon ton ca EDF, c th hng tn dng Aaa theo nh gi ca
c quan xp hng tn dng Moodys v AA+ theo nh gi ca S&P. EDF l mt trong nhng
cng ty in lc ln nht trn th gii vi cng sut lp t 100 GW v tng ti sn 136 t EUR,
v EDFI duy tr cc d n u t hi ngoi ca EDF vi tng vn s hu ca c ng v tng ti
sn ln lt l 71 t FRF v 207 t FRF. EDFI tch cc u t vo cc d n in v cc cng ty
bn ngoi nc Php bao gm cc nc ang pht trin.
Cng ty Sumitomo l mt trong cc cng ty thng mi ton cu hng u vi th hng tn dng
Baa1 theo nh gi ca Moodys. Cng ty c tng ti sn tr gi 39 t USD v doanh s gp l
80 t USD; hot ng trn ton cu vi 158 vn phng hi ngoi ti 88 quc gia. Cng ty
1

Vic MECO khng hon tt h s ti chnh trong vng 12 thng s to thnh bin c v n ca MECO tr khi cc
bn tha thun gia hn khong thi gian ny.
World Bank

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

tham gia vo hn 120 d n in trn khp th gii, bao gm cc d n in c lp (IPP). Cng

ty ng vai tr nh mt nh thu EPC (nh thu thit k, cung cp thit b v thi cng xy dng)
cho mt d n in chy bng than Vit Nam v cc d n in theo chu trnh hn hp ti cc
nc ang pht trin chu khc. Cng ty Sumitomo Vit Nam c doanh s khong 1 t USD
hng nm, tng ng vi xp x 25% th phn trong tng thng mi Vit Nam- Nht Bn.
TEPCI l chi nhnh u t hi ngoi thuc s hu hon ton ca TEPCO, l cng ty in lc t
nhn ln nht trn th gii v c th hng tn dng Aa2 theo nh gi ca Moodys v AA- theo
nh gi ca S&P. TEPCO cam kt thc hin ngha v vn s hu ca TEPCI i vi D n.
Cng ty l nh iu hnh in lc theo chu trnh hn hp s dng nhin liu kh t hiu qu
nht v ln nht trn th gii vi cng sut 8156 MW v 16 nm kinh nghim hot ng. Cng
ty bt u u t vo cc d n in hi ngoi v gp vn s hu vo IPP Hoa K v i
Loan.
Cc hp ng giao kt ca d n
C cu hp ng ca giao dch v s phn b cc ri ro thng mi, k thut, v chnh tr gia
cc bn nht qun vi cc tiu chun ngnh i vi cc d n truy i hu hn.
A. Hp ng giao kt vi khu vc cng
Cc hp ng chnh ca D n vi cc i tc Vit Nam ca D n nh sau:
(a) Hp ng BOT gia MECO v MOI nh mt c quan nh nc c Chnh ph ch nh
lm i din m phn cc d n thuc loi ny, k ngy 18-9-2001. Hp ng BOT xc nh
cc quyn li v ngha v ca MECO v MOI, bao gm vic kt thc hp ng v cc iu
khon v n, v rng buc cc c ch lut php, qui nh v thu. Theo Hp ng BOT, Chnh
ph cho MECO ton quyn huy ng vn, xy dng, s dng v vn hnh nh my in ti ch.
Hp ng bo m cc bin php u i u t v cc i x c li khc c th p dng cho D
n ph hp vi lut php v qui nh ca Vit Nam, bao gm bo m kh nng chuyn i v
chuyn giao ngoi hi t do; cho php thnh lp cc ti khon nc ngoi; cho php D n
pht hnh chng khon cho ngi cho vay; iu khon v cc b tr tham gia ca ngi cho vay
trong trng hp MECO b v n; v xc nhn s i x thu u i dnh cho cc d n c s
h tng. Hp ng BOT s kt thc 20 nm sau ngy bt u i vo hot ng tr khi kt thc
trc do v n hay bt kh khng. Vo cui thi hn hp ng hay khi kt thc hp ng,
MECO s chuyn giao min ph quyn s hu phng tin nh my cho MOI hay n v c
ch nh ca MOI. Hp ng BOT nu r cc bin c kt thc hp ng v qui nh gi tr n
b phi tr trong mi trng hp.
(b) Hp ng mua in (PPA) gia MECO v EVN vo ngy 18-9-2001. PPA qui nh vic bn
in cho EVN trn c s gi bn in phi tr bng tin ng gm hai phn: (i) ph cng sut c
nh (FCC) b p dch v n, thu, thu hi vn/ li nhun cng vi nh ph vn hnh v bo
tr (FOMC) b p chi ph hot ng; v (ii) ph nng lng b p bin ph vn hnh v
bo tr (VOMC) v ph nhin liu (FC). FCC, FC v mt phn FOMC v VOMC c lp ch s
theo USD; v FOMC, VOMC v FC s tng dn tnh n yu t lm pht. EVN s mua ton
b sn lng ca D n theo hp ng bao tiu thi hn 20 (EVN phi mua sn lng ca D n

World Bank

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

hoc nu khng th vn phi tr cho D n chi ph tng ng). PPA cng qui nh cc yu t
c bn ca tha thun chia x c s h tng, trong EVN s cung cp dch v cho MECO nh
cp v thot nc lm mt, h thng thot nc, kh t nhin v h thng a in ln li v
cung ng in cho xy dng v khi cng. EVN chu trch nhim xy dng, vn hnh v bo tr
tt c cc phng tin chung v cc chi ph lin quan, v EVN v MECO s tha thun nh gi
thu hi chi ph cc dch v ny trong cu phn tnh thm ca gi bn in.
(c) Hp ng bn kh t nhin (GSA) gia MECO v PV ngy 18-9-2001. Tt c cc yu cu
v kh t ca D n s c cung ng theo hp ng bn kh t nhin vi PV. MECO s c
ngha v bao tiu mt sn lng kh t ti thiu ca PV thi hn 20 nm (MECO phi mua sn
lng hoc nu khng th vn phi tr cho PV chi ph tng ng). D n d kin s tiu
th khong 0,85 bcm kh t mt nm v 17 bcm trong thi hn BOT ng vi 75% ti bnh qun.
Gi kh t bao gm chi ph kh t, ph vn chuyn v ph phn phi. Gi kh t c tr bng
VND nhng c lp ch s theo USD. Gi c xy dng trn gi nh rng khi kh t do PV
cung ng ly t ngun Nam Cn Sn Block 06-1. Nu kh t c ly t bt k ngun no
khc, gi s c iu chnh.
(d) Hp ng cp nc (WSA) gia MECO v Cng ty Cp nc BR-VT k ngy 17-6-2002.
Nc c th ung c v nc cng nghip x l dng cho nh my in s do Cng ty Cp
nc BR-VT cung ng, cng ty ny cng chu trch nhim bo tr ng ng v ng h nc.
Gi nc do chnh quyn tnh BR-VT n nh. Gi nc cng ty MECO tr cho Cng ty Cp
nc s c thu hi trong cu phn tnh thm ca gi bn in.
(e) Hp ng thu t (LLA) gia MECO (bn thu) v UDEC (bn cho thu) ngy 18-9-2001.
LLA qui nh din tch v a im khu t cho thu, min tin thu trong thi hn u i BOT
v qui nh Quyn s dng t s c cp cho bn thu. Bn thu c quyn s hu tt c cc
cng trnh trn t v c quyn th chp t huy ng vn. LLA cng nhn quyn tham gia
ca ngi cho vay trong trng hp MECO b v n.
(f) Th bo lnh ca chnh ph gia MECO v MPI thay mt cho Chnh ph ngy 18-9-2001.
Th bo lnh ca chnh ph bo m vic thc hin ph hp v ng hn cc trch nhim v
ngha v ca cc i tc pha Vit Nam i vi MECO, bao gm nhng khng gii hn trong cc
ngha v thanh ton trong cc vn bn chng t c bn. Cc vn bn chng t c bo lnh bao
gm: Hp ng BOT, PPA, GSA, WSA v LLA. Th bo lnh ca chnh ph cng bo m kh
nng sn c, kh nng chuyn i v chuyn giao ngoi hi; cho php m cc ti khon hi
ngoi cho vic ti tr d n v cng nhn quyn tham gia ca ngi cho vay trong trng hp
MECO v n. Th bo lnh ny ca D n nht qun vi th bo lnh do MPI cp cho d n
chui cung ng kh t Nam Cn Sn.
(g) Giy php u t (IL) do MPI i din cho Chnh ph cp ngy 18-9-2001. IL nu r cc
iu khon ca giy php cp cho MECO v qui nh vic ng k kinh doanh ca cng ty. Th
cng nhn v chp thun ca MOI v cc hp ng b sung khc c k kt bi cc i tc
Vit Nam vi MECO v vi cc bn cho vay thng mi l mt phn ca cc vn bn chng t
ti tr (dng huy ng vn).
B. Hp ng giao kt vi khu vc t nhn
World Bank

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

(a) Hp ng thit k, cung cp thit b v thi cng xy dng (EPC) gia MECO v EDFCNET. EDF-CNET l b phn thit k cng trnh ca EDF v s ng vai tr nh thu EPC ca
d n. Hp ng EPC qui nh cc iu khon cha kha trao tay hon ton cho ton b phm vi
ECP, bao gm: gi c nh, ngy hon thnh c nh, thi gian biu y cho vic hon thin
trc ngy hot ng thng mi theo qui nh ca PPA, v cc tiu ch kt qu hot ng bo
m nhm p ng tt c cc yu cu hot ng ca d n.
(b) Hp ng dch v k thut v vn hnh v bo tr (TSA) gia MECO v EDF/TEPCO.
EDF/TEPCO s k kt hp ng TSA h tr MECO trong vic thc hin cc dch v vn
hnh v bo tr d n. EDF/TEDCP s cung ng cc dch v k thut bao gm: h tr k thut
ng dy nng, cung ng s liu v cc nh my tng t ang hot ng EDF v TEPCO,
phn tch s liu kt qu hot ng ca thit b nh my v a ra kin ngh v vn hnh v bo
tr, kim tra cc qui nh v cht lng nh cung ng, phn tch cc s kin chnh v a ra kin
ngh.
(c) Hp ng dch v di hn (LTSA) gia MECO v n v cung ng thit b GE. Theo Hp
ng, GE s (1) b tr mt k s hot ng ton thi gian ti cng trnh h tr k thut; (ii)
cung ng cc linh kin ph tng ban u v qun l tn kho linh kin cho thit b do GE cung
ng; (iii) gim st trc tuyn nh my GE v cung ng s liu vn hnh. GE s h tr k thut
trong 48.000 gi vn hnh (trn danh ngha l su nm) hoc cho n sau ln i tu u tin.
(d) Bo him. Hp ng BOT qui nh cc loi bo him, mc n b ti thiu v thi hn hp
ng bo him thng mi m MECO s k kt v duy tr thc hin D n. MECO s mua
bo him thng mi theo thng l dnh cho cc d n in t nhn. Trong thi gian xy dng,
cc hp ng bo him ny bao gm: bo him hng ha vn chuyn bng ng bin v ng
hng khng, bo him mi ri ro xy dng, bo him tn tht doanh thu (theo sau mi ri ro); v
trong thi k hot ng, cc hp ng bo him bao gm: bo him mi ri ro, bo him thua l
xy ra sau mi ri ro, my mc thit b hng, trch nhim chung/ trch nhim thng mi, n
b cho ngi lao ng v trch nhim ch lao ng v.v MOI v IDA s l ngi c bo
him b sung trong hp ng bo him trch nhim chung.
Ngoi ra cn c Hp ng t vn k s ca ch s hu gia TEPCO trn cng v k s ca ch
s hu v MECO.
C. Cc vn bn chng t ti tr
S c cc vn bn chng t ti tr gia cc nh ti tr v MECO. Ch u t s gp vn s hu
cho MECO cn c theo Hp ng C ng. Vic huy ng vn vay s c tha thun thng
qua mt lot cc hp ng vay, hp ng iu khon chung, hp ng lin tn dng, chng t
chng khon, tha thun trc tip v cc hp ng lin quan khc.
D. Chng th bo lnh ca IDA
Xem Ph lc 11 tm tt cc iu khon ca Hp ng vay do IDA bo lnh, trong MECO l
ngi vay, IDA l ngi bo lnh, v cc t chc cho vay thng mi; Tha thun bo lnh ca
IDA gia IDA v nhng ngi cho vay trn cng v ngi hng li; Tha thun bi thng
gia IDA v Chnh ph; v Tha thun D n gia IDA v MECO.
World Bank

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

World Bank

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

Ph lc 3: c tnh chi ph d n
D n in Ph M 2 Giai on 2 Vit Nam
c tnh chi ph d n
Thnh phn chi ph
Chi ph u t:
Hp ng EPC
Linh kin ph tng ban u
Chi ph tin hot ng
Ph pht trin cho MOI
Chi ph pht trin bn trong & bn ngoi
Chi ph khc*
Tng chi ph u t
Chi ph huy ng vn:
IDC
Ph
Tng chi ph huy ng vn
Tng chi ph d n
Chi ph d phng ca d n
t cc bo m cht lng cho MOI
Ti tr chi ph d phng d n
Tng chi ph d phng ca d n
Tng chi ph d n

Hng mc

Gi tr
(triu
USD)

% chi % yu cu ti
ph d tr bao gm
n
d phng

Vt cht
Vt cht
Khc
Khc
Khc
Vt cht /khc

297,5
13,3
10,2
3,5
12,0
18,6
355,1

88,8%

38,1
6,7
44,8
399,9

11,2%
100,0%

Khc
Khc

Khc
Khc

40
40
80
480

83,3%

16,7%
100,0%

* Chi ph khc bao gm bo him, tr lng du chng ct ban u, nhin liu s dng bt u i vo
hot ng, chi ph k s ca ch s hu, chi ph t cc bo m cht lng cng trnh, chi ph vn lu
ng, v.v

World Bank

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

K hoch huy ng vn
Ngun huy ng

Thi hn
(nm)

Gi tr (triu
USD)

Phn trm

Vn s hu ca ch u t
Vn ch s hu c bn
Vn ch s hu d phng
Tng vn ch s hu ca ch u t

100
40
140

29,2%

N
N c bn
N d phng
Tng n vay

300
40
340

70,8%

Cc khon n (c bn v d phng)
Vay c bo lnh ri ro chnh tr ca IDA
Vay vn OCR ca ADB
Vay do ADB bo lnh + PRI
Vay JBIC
Vay Proparco
Tng vn vay
Tng yu cu ngun vn

16
15
11
15
15

75
50
25
150
40
340
480

(15,6%)

100%

T l vn s hu/vn vay s l 25%/75% cho chi ph c bn ca d n; v chi ph d phng ca

d n s c ti tr trn c s t l vn s hu/vn vay bng 50%/50%.
H tr ca ADB d kin bao gm: 50 triu USD vn vay trc tip t ngun OCR; v bo lnh
vay t nhn 25 triu USD c bo him ri ro chnh tr (PRI). Vay ECA hin d kin bao gm:
vay trc tip t JBIC 100 triu USD v vay trc tip t Proparco 40 triu USD.

World Bank

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

Ph lc 4: Tm tt phn tch chi ph li ch

D n Ph M 2 Giai on 2 Vit Nam
Phng php tng qut
1. Phn tch kinh t c tnh n s pht trin kinh t tim nng v pht trin lnh vc in
Vit Nam trong vng i 20 nm ca d n (2004-2024). Thi gian hot ng ca d n
l 20 nm, trc l thi gian u t 2002-2004.
2. Cc gi nh sau y c a ra cho tnh hung c bn:

Tng trng ti 10% hng nm. D bo ti trong tnh hung c bn cho rng tng
trng cu l 10,2% v trong tnh hung cao, tng trng cu l 11%;

D n c y thc bt u hot ng thng mi ng lch trnh, h s khai thc

cng sut 90% v h s iu li in 75% trong sut thi gian hot ng;

Gi bn in bnh qun c tng u theo t l bnh qun 8% mt nm, tnh theo gi

tr thc, (tng n 7 cents/kWh vo nm 2005) cho n khi t mc trn sn lng chi
tr gi nh l 7,5 cents/kWh vo nm 2006;

Gim tht thot in t mc hin hnh 16% theo t l gim 6% hng nm cho n khi
t c mc tht thot mc tiu n nh 10% vo nm 2010;

Gi kh t nhin tng thu hi chi ph bin di hn vo nm 2004 v tng 2%/nm

sau .

u t vo truyn ti v phn phi (T&D) c tnh tng ln n 70% trong gi tr u

t vo cng sut pht in, ph hp vi k hoch 20 nm ca EVN.

3. Trong cc iu kin ny, sut sinh li kinh t (ERR) ca D n l 24% v hin gi rng
(NPV) l 667 triu USD.
4. Cc ri ro i vi kch bn ny bao gm:

D n bt u i vo hot ng chm hn k hoch;

Mc sn lng chi tr (willingness to pay, WTP) thp hn so vi gi nh trong tinh

hung c bn;

Vic tng gi bn in b chm tr v/ hoc chng trnh gim tht thot in bt u

chm;

Ph gi ng tin

Vic sn xut in b hn ch do s i x u i i vi cc nh my in nh nc
nhiu hn so vi cc nh my in t nhn v chi ph nhin liu u vo; v

World Bank

10

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

Nhu cu cn phi u t vo truyn ti v phn phi cao hn k hoch cho vic

phn phi in tr nn c hiu qu v gim tht thot.

5. Phn tch nhy da vo nm yu t ri ro u tin cho thy kt qu sut sinh li kinh

t ca D n nm trong khong t 10 n 22%.
Cung v cu in nng
6. GDP ca Vit Nam d kin s tip tc tng trng khong 5 n 7% trong trung hn.
Trong giai on t 1990 n 2000, c mi quan h thng k mt thit gia tng trng
GDP thc v tng cung ng in ca EVN. Trn c s ny, ng vi mi tng quan gia
tng trng GDP v tng trng nhu cu tiu th in, t l tng trng tiu th in d
bo c lng l 10%/nm, gi nh gi bn in thc khng i. Vi mc ch phn tch
hin ti, ta s dng gi tr d bo 10%/nm.
7. K hoch m rng vi chi ph thp nht v cc nghin cu lin quan Tip sc cho s
pht trin ca Vit Nam (nghin cu ca Ngn hng Th gii 1999) v K hoch pht
trin in nng ca Chnh ph Vit Nam nm 2001 cho thy rng bt k s gia tng cng
sut pht in no nhm p ng ti c bn Vit Nam cng phi da vo tua bin kh t
nhin (theo lng gia tng 300-450 MW) s dng cht t ni a theo phng thc chu
trnh hn hp (combined cycle gas turbines, CCGT), c xem l phng thc c chi ph
kinh t thp nht. D n, vi ti c bn 715 MW theo chu trnh kt hp, p ng cc tiu
ch chi ph thp nht; v chi ph in tit gim ca D n nm trong s cc chi ph thp
nht trn th gii.
8. K hoch m rng ca Chnh ph d kin bt u vn hnh D n vo nm 2004, tip
theo bng cc nh my CCGT khc khi cn thit. n cui nm 2005, cc nh my in
trn ton quc s sn xut ra sn lng 45-50 t kWh, tng ln n 70-80 t kWh vo
nm 2010 v 160-200 t kWh vo nm 2020. Vic b sung cng sut k hoch s gip
gn nh cn i gia cung v cu, n nm 2010, tng cng sut s bng nh ti d
bo vo khong 17.000 MW (bao gm bin d tr 34% vo ma ma v 22% vo
ma kh). Cn c theo k hoch m rng, tng cng sut nm 2020 s ln n 35.000
MW, bao gm 39,7% thy in, 31,2% nh my in s dng kh t theo chu trnh hn
hp v 13,9% nh my chy bng than vi bin d tr 29,6% vo ma ma v 23,1%
vo ma kh.
9. Phn tch cho thy rng t nay n lc nh my in ca D n bt u vn hnh, h
thng s khng th p ng ti, v s c tim nng gy ra cc vn v tin cy do
d tr khng . Do tnh trng thiu ht hin ti v trong trung hn, tnh trng gim t l
tng trng ti c th xy ra (ngha l tng trng ti di 8%/nm) s khng tc ng
n kt qu hot ng ca D n, min l chng trnh sn xut in ui kp nhu cu,
lch bt u hot ng ca chng trnh IPP do s c iu chnh cn xng vi
tng trng ti cng st sao cng tt. Qui nh cng b trch nhim mi pht sinh ca
Chnh ph, phong tro hng ti lnh vc in nng hon ton thng mi v cc iu
kin rng buc v ngun ti tr v thc hin ca t nc s h tr cho qui nh ny.

World Bank

11

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

nh gi li ch v chi ph
10. Tt c li ch v chi ph c biu th bng USD c nh nm 2001. Ngoi tr gi bn
in, d kin khng c s thay i v mc gi thc c bn nh hng n cc dng
ngun lc kinh t mt cch ng k, v khng c s iu chnh g v t gi hi oi n
hay mc lng n. Chi ph hot ng bng VND th nh. Khng c gi nh g v cc gi
tr s d.
11. Vn kh khn chnh trong o lng li ch ngi tiu dng Vit Nam l gn nh
khng c bng chng v mc sn lng chi tr (WTP) vt ln trn so vi mc gi thc
t, khng c nhiu nghin cu v WTP. Do , vic nh gi li ch da vo vic s
dng li sut bnh qun (doanh s bn l) ca cc cng ty phn phi in, hin khong
5,1 cents/kWh, lm cn di ca WTP. Da trn nghin cu v phng vn, c th hp l
khi ta gi nh rng vi s ci thin v tin cy ca dch v, mc gi bn in bnh
qun c th tng thm t nht 5%. iu ny s phi thc hin thng qua tng gi in sinh
hot, m hin ang c tr cp cho, bng khng cc n v tiu th in cng nghip
v thng mi c th c ng c khuyn khch h t cung ng, v c th tng ln ng
k trc khi s chng i ca ngi tiu dng xi mn d bo ti. V th, D n
lp m hnh cho vic tng 8% theo gi tr thc vo nm 2002, 2003, v 2004, iu ny
dn n c lng WTP l 7,0 cents/kWh t nm 2005. Mc WTP ny cao hn 37% so
vi gi in c duyt hin nay v da vo gi nh rng nu vic tng gi in xy ra,
ngi tiu dng s sn lng chi tr.
12. 100% sn lng nng lng rng t D n s c xem l sn lng tng thm, cho d
trn thc t, mt phn trong s thay th cho sn lng c sn xut theo cc phng
thc c chi ph cao hn (v d nh cc nh my s dng nhin liu du v diesel).
13. Doanh s bn in nm 2000 phn nh khong 16% tht thot trong truyn ti v phn
phi (k thut v phi k thut). Ta gi nh rng vic gim tht thot h thng khng
ng k s xy ra trong hai nm u ca thi gian nh gi, khi nh my in ang c
xy dng, nhng t l gim tht thot 6%/nm s kh thi trong di hn trong bi cnh ci
cch. V th, chng trnh gim tht thot in gi nh l s c thc hin trong giai
on 2001-2011, cho n khi t c mc tht thot 10% vo nm 2010. iu ny dn
n tng doanh s bn in trn mt kWh.

World Bank

12

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

Chi ph
14. Trong phn tch, ta s dng gi tr thng mi ca chi ph u t cng nh chi ph vn
hnh v bo tr lin quan, nh c lng ca cc ch u t trong m hnh ti chnh. Tuy
nhin, y l mt phn tch kinh t ch khng phi phn tch ti chnh, nn khng c
tnh n tt c cc khon chuyn giao ti chnh nh IDC vn ha, ti tr trc d tr vn
vay, v vn lu ng ban u. V mc ch nh gi chi ph kinh t, kh t nhin s c
nh gi theo chi ph bin di hn c lng (LRMC) cho in nng Vit Nam (3,15
USD/mcf).
15. Chi ph truyn ti v phn phi bin c nh gi bng 3,6 cents/kWh, da vo d bo
ti ca cc cng ty in lc khc nhau v u t tng thm xut, cng nh chi ph vn
hnh v bo tr m rng v vn hnh mng li truyn ti v phn phi nhm h tr
tng trng ti d bo. Tng chi ph truyn ti v phn phi qui cho D n c tnh
ng vi mc tht thot nm 2000, v c gi khng i v doanh s bn in cho ngi
s dng sau cng ca D n s tng t l thun vi vic gim tht thot. iu ny cho
php chi ph truyn ti v phn phi trn mt kWh in bn ra gim tng ng vi vic
gim tht thot phn nh trong s ci thin dn hiu qu h thng nh d bo vn l
mt kt qu di hn hp l trong bi cnh ci cch.
Phn tch h s iu li in
16. H s khai thc cc nh my nhit in ch yu ph thuc vo hiu sut nhit tng i
ca nh my trong vic chuyn t nhin liu thnh in nng v ph thuc vo gi nhin
liu tng i. Gi nhin liu cng thp v hiu sut cng cao th bin ph trn 1 kWh
in sn xut ra cng thp v h s khai thc cng sut nh my cng cao.
17. D n s c mt v tr thun li v th t iu li in (dispatch order) khi so snh
vi hu ht cc nh my in khc ca EVN. Trong phn tch, iu ny c phn nh
qua h s khai thc cng sut khng i l 90% trong tnh hung c bn. D n s dng
h s khai thc cng sut ln n 90% v vic duy tr mt nh my in hin i - c th
gi nh cho Ph M ng vi cc b tr s hu v qun l ca nh my s rt c kh
nng hot ng mc ny (ng vi cc gi nh tnh hung c bn), trong bi cnh hiu
qu s dng nhin liu v tin cy ca nhu cu nng lng Vit Nam. Tuy nhin, th
t iu li in nhy cm trc s thay i v phn bit gi (gi nhin liu), trong
, nu s phn bit gi tng ln cao hn mc hin hnh, cc nh my in hot ng
km hiu qu hn ca EVN s tr nn c h s iu li in cao hn so vi cc IPP
hot ng hiu qu hn trong c D n qua nh hng nghim trng n yu t
kinh t c bn ca chng trnh IPP. Ngoi ra li cn c mt iu khon hp ng v
ngha v bao tiu nhin liu i vi nh my in.
Cc kt qu
18. Cc gi nh sau y c a ra cho bi cnh tnh hung c bn: mc tng gi thc
8%/nm c p dng bnh qun cho gi in thng mi cho n khi t ti trn WTP
l 7,0 cents/kWh vo nm 2006; tt c cc IPP theo sau D n u s dng nhin liu

World Bank

13

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

hiu qu hn i cht; v tht thot in gim t 16% xung 10% thng qua t l gim
tht thot 6%/nm. Da vo nhng gi nh ny, sut sinh li kinh t ca D n (ERR) l
24%.
19. Tnh vng chc ca kt qu D n da vo tiu ch ERR c kim nh ng vi s
bin thin nhng thng s ng tin cy nht nh hng n kt qu. Nhng bin s ny l
mc sn lng chi tr, gim tht thot in, ngy bt u hot ng b chm tr, ph gi
tin ng, v th t iu li in. Th t iu li in tip n li ph thuc vo
c ch nh gi nhin liu v hiu qu s dng nhin liu ca D n so vi cc nh my
in khc (ni c th ra l cc nh my in c lp khc trong tng lai c cho l
cng sn xut theo phng thc tua bin kh chu trnh hn hp s i vo sn xut sau D
n).
20. Trong tnh hung ri ro u tin, gi nh D n bt u hot ng chm hn 7,5 thng,
lm cho ERR gim 2 im phn trm. Trong mt tnh hung khc, ERR c kim nh
ng vi vic gim WTP ch cn 6 cents/kWh v t l gim tht thot in h xung cn
1%, lm cho ERR gim xung mc 15%. Vic gim WTP ch cn 6 cents/kWh lm ERR
gim cn 16%, trong khi ring t l gim tht thot chm hn ch lm gim ERR xung
22%. Tnh hung th ba c m t qua vic thc hin ci cch tr tr, khin gi in
khng th tng theo gi tr thc, ngha l gi in 5,1 cents/kWh s c p dng, v vic
bt u chng trnh gim tht thot in b tr hon n nm 2007. iu ny lm ERR
gim cn 10%. Trong tnh hung th t, gi in vn gi nguyn mc hin hnh 5,1
cents/kWh, trong khi chng trnh gim tht thot in c thc hin ng lch trnh.
iu ny dn n ERR bng 11%. Tnh hung th nm lin quan n u t cao hn
18% vo truyn ti v phn phi, lm cho ERR gim 4 im phn trm.
21. Cui cng, ERR c kim nh trc s ph gi tin ng, dn n s chng i ca
ngi tiu dng trc s tng gi in cn thit nhm duy tr gi tr ca doanh s bn thu
tin ng trc cc ngha v n tnh bng USD. Tnh hung ny c minh ha bng
vic gim doanh thu thc 15 phn trm trong giai on 2005-2007 (gi nh rng mc
tiu th in s c duy tr bng cch khng tng gi in tng ng vi mc ph gi
ng tin), tip theo l khi phc dn mc gi in thc cho n khi t c mc 7,5
cents vo nm 2014. ERR t c l 19 phn trm.
22. Cc kt qu khc nhau trong Phn tch tnh hung c tm tt nh sau:

World Bank

14

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

Bng 1: Cc kt qu v sut sinh li kinh t (ERR) v hin gi rng (NPV)

Tnh hung
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

Tinh hung c bn
D n bt u hot ng tr
Mc sn lng chi tr thp hn v gim tht thot t hn
Mc sn lng chi tr thp hn
Gim tht thot chm hn
Ci cch chm
Khng tng gi in
u t cao hn vo truyn ti v phn phi
Ph gi ng tin
Tt c cc tnh hung trn

ERR
NPV @ 10,0%
(phn trm) (triu USD)
24
667
22
613
15
206
16
266
22
584
10
0,8
12
28
21
570
19
450
6
-228

23. Nh biu th qua bng 1, tnh hung c bn mang li mc ERR tha ng l 24% v
NPV bng 667 triu USD. Nm tnh hung ri ro u tin dn n gi tr NPV dng v
ERR trong phm vi t 10 n 22%. Tnh hung t nht kt hp mi ri ro, dn n ERR
bng 6% v NPV c gi tr m, -228 triu USD.
Kt lun
24. nh gi kinh t cho thy rng D n kh vng chc trong vic mang li li ch kinh t
rng ng vi cc tnh hung khc nhau. Cc kt qu trnh by y c th xem l mt s
o gii hn di, c tnh cht thn trng d dt, v li ch kinh t thc t mang li t D
n. Kt lun ny c khng nh bi s kin l vic nh gi li ch 7,0 cents/kWh l
mt gi tr thn trng ng vi mc tng t so vi mc gi in thng mi c php i
vi thng d ngi tiu dng. Hn na, vic thc hin D n c tnh s gip tha mn
phn nhu cu nng lng ng k cha c p ng ti Vit Nam, qua duy tr tng
trng kinh t di hn.

World Bank

15

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

Bng 2: Phn tch kinh t d n

Sut sinh li d n Ph M 2 Giai on 2 tnh hung c bn
Sn xut
in

Truyn ti
v phn
phi

Sn xut
in

Chi ph u
t

Chi ph u
t

Chi ph kh
t

USD
40.000.000
200.000.000
160.000.000

USD
28.000.000
140.000.000
112.000.000

USD

94.554.574
96.445.665
98.374.579
100.342.070
102.348.912
104.395.890
106.483.808
108.623.484
110.785.753
113.001.468
115.261.498
117.566.728
119.918.062
122.316.424
124.762.752
127.258.007
129.803.167
132.399.231
135.047.215
137.748.159

World Bank

Chi ph vn
hnh v bo
tr
USD

10.098.000
8.498.000
30.780.000
7.739.000
7.739.000
32.739.000
5.339.000
8.939.000
21.439.000
5.339.000
8.939.000
22.966.000
5.339.000
8.939.000
19.619.000
8.939.000
5.339.000
24.239.000
5.339.000
9.419.000

16

Truyn ti
v phn
phi lin
quan
Chi ph vn
hnh v bo
tr
USD

5.600.000
5.600.000
5.600.000
5.600.000
5.600.000
5.600.000
5.600.000
5.600.000
5.600.000
5.600.000
5.600.000
5.600.000
5.600.000
5.600.000
5.600.000
5.600.000
5.600.000
5.600.000
5.600.000
5.600.000

Tng chi ph

Li ch rng

USD

USD
-68.000.000
-340.000.000
-272.000.000
179.375.466
202.497.954
180.858.608
204.358.123
204.639.968
179.752.127
205.202.572
199.472.896
184.800.627
198.684.912
192.824.882
176.492.652
191.768.318
185.769.956
172.643.628
184.428.373
178.283.213
160.387.149
176.639.165
169.858.220
23,7%

110.252.574
110.543.665
134.754.579
113.681.070
115.687.912
142.734.890
117.422.808
123.152.484
137.824.753
123.940.468
129.800.498
146.132.728
130.857.062
136.855.424
149.981.752
138.197.007
144.342.167
162.238.231
145.986.215
152.767.159
ERR
NPV @ 10%
666.769.184

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

Ph lc 5: Cc gi nh v d bo ti chnh ca MECO
D n in Ph M 2 Giai on 2 Vit Nam
5.1 Cc gi nh tng qut
MECO lp mt m hnh ti chnh phn tch tnh hnh ti chnh ca D n trong vng i
D n v m hnh ny c nhng ngi cho vay xem xt. D bo ti chnh c trnh by
trong m hnh da vo cc hp ng d n; k hoch ti tr xut v cc iu khon ti chnh
lin quan; cc gi nh k thut v c ch hot ng d kin; v cc gi nh v kinh t v m.
Cc gi nh trong m hnh ti chnh c tm tt trong phn ny.
5.2 Cc gi nh kinh t v m
ng tin: ng tin c bn s dng trong m hnh ti chnh l USD. Chi ph u t v chi ph
hot ng D n, cc bo co ti chnh c trnh by bng USD. Doanh thu bng VND v chi
ph hot ng c trnh by, tnh ton v qui i thnh USD. Nn lu rng chi ph u t D
n ch yu bng USD v doanh thu D n ni chung c lp ch s theo USD. C ch qui i
c qui nh trong Th bo lnh ca Chnh ph. Do , khng c chnh lch (c hay mt) do
t gi qui i khi trnh by d bo ti chnh.
T gi hi oi v lm pht: Trong m hnh ti chnh, ta s dng t gi VND/USD tham chiu
ban u l 12.978 VND/USD, l t gi bn trong Yu cu xut do MOI lp vo thng 101997. T gi ny tiu biu cho t gi c bn lp ch s cho doanh thu suy ra t PPA.
T gi hi oi nm 2001 l 15.000 VND/USD. Trong nhng nm tip theo, VND c gi nh
l s mt gi ph hp vi nguyn tc cn bng sc mua; nguyn tc ny cho rng bin thin t
gi hi oi gn lin vi chnh lch t l lm pht gia ni t (VND) v ngoi t (USD).
Nh qui nh trong PPA, ch s gi ni a dng tng cu phn doanh thu hot ng bng tin
ng trong gi in s bng ch s gi tiu dng ca Vit Nam theo cng b ca Tng cc Thng
k Vit Nam.
Ch s gi nc ngoi dng tng cu phn doanh thu bng USD trong gi in s l ch s ca
Cc Thng k Lao ng Hoa K EES 40000006, xc nh mc lng bnh qun theo gi ca
ngi lao ng sn xut, ngi lao ng vn chuyn v ngi lao ng cc cng ty tin ch cng
cng.
Ch s gi ni a: Ch s gi ni a cho giai on 1998-2000 c ly t Nin gim Thng k
2000 do Tng cc Thng k pht hnh vo thng 1-2001.
Thng 4 thng 12/1998
Thng 1 thng 12/1999
Thng 1 thng 12/2000

4,26%
0,05%
-0,53%

i vi giai on t 2001 n 2024, ch s gi ni a c d bo tng 5,00%/nm.

World Bank

17

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

Ch s gi nc ngoi: Ch s gi nc ngoi cho giai on 1998-2000 c ly t ch s ca

Cc Thng k Lao ng Hoa K EES 40000006.
Thng 4/1998
Thng 4 thng 12/1998
Thng 1 thng 12/1999
Thng 1 thng 12/2000

15,27
15,27 15,50
15,50 16,10
16,10 16,50

1,51%
3,87%
2,48%

i vi giai on t 2001 n 2024, ch s gi nc ngoi d bo tng 2,50%/nm.

5.3 Cc gi nh v huy ng vn
Li sut/ USD LIBOR: Tt c cc khon vay u c tnh bng USD v tiu biu cho cc ngha
v n c li sut th ni. M hnh ti chnh gi nh rng 100% ri ro li sut s c phng
nga trong thi k xy dng v thi k vn hnh D n. Ngha v n theo li sut c nh tng
ng s c suy ra t li sut hon i USD thnh hnh, c gi nh l bng 6,50%/nm.
T s n trn vn s hu: T s n trn vn s hu gi nh trong m hnh ti chnh s khng
ln hn 75:25 khi hon tt xy dng D n ngha l vo ngy hot ng thng mi (COD). Vn
vay c bn v vn s hu c bn s c gii ngn trn c s t l 75:25.
Cc gi nh hin ti v cc phng tin tn dng c tm tt trong bng di y:
Bng 5.1: Cc gi nh ca m hnh ti chnh lin quan n cc khon vay
Khon vay
Vay c bo lnh ri ro chnh tr
ca IDA
Vay trc tip ca ADB
Vay t nhn do ADB bo lnh +
bo him ri ro chnh tr nc
ngoi
Vay trc tip ca JBIC
Vay trc tip ca Proparco

Gi tr
Thi hn (s nm tnh Thi gian n hn (s
(triu USD) t ngy hon tt h s thng tnh t ngy hot
cho vay)
ng thng mi)
75
16
8
50
25

15
11

8
8

150
40

15
15

8
8

Ngy hon tr n u tin: Ngy hon tr n u tin s l 8 thng sau ngy hot ng thng
mi hoc hn cht ca ngy u tin tr n vo thng 11-2005, ty theo ngy no n trc.
Ti khon d tr tr n (debt service reserve account, DSRA): Ti khon d tr tr n s
c xy dng t ngn lu d n cho n khi t gi tr tng ng cc yu cu tr n trong
thi gian 6 thng tip theo. Cc c ng s c quyn chn thay th DSRA bng mt Th tn dng
v nh th s c sn ngn lu dnh cho cc c ng. V mc ch ca m hnh ti chnh, ta gi
nh rng quyn chn ny s c thc hin. Chi ph pht hnh Th tn dng do cc c ng
chu.

World Bank

18

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

Ti khon d tr i tu: Ti khon d tr i tu (major overhaul reserve account, MORA)

c tnh ton sao cho cc gi tr bng nhau c trch t ngn lu D n nh k hng qu
cung ng chi ph bo tr chnh, bao gm chi ph linh kin ph tng, cho k i tu k tip. Chi ph
bo tr chnh s trch t ti khon d tr ny p ng nhu cu i tu.
Phn phi c tc: MECO d nh phn phi c tc trn c s hng qu. Phn phi c tc da
vo iu kin l DSRA 12 thng qu kh v d bo phi ln hn t s kha ti khon DSCR ph
hp vi qui nh v ti tr.
5.4 Cc gi nh k thut
Cc gi nh hot ng c tm tt trong bng sau y:
Bng 5.2: Cc gi nh hot ng chnh ca phng tin sn xut
H s khai thc cng sut nh my
H s iu li in
Cng sut tin cy (bnh qun)
H s s dng nhin liu EPC (bnh qun)

90,0%
75%
701,3 MW
6573 kJ/kWh ng vi 100% ti

Chi ph nhin liu: Chi ph nhin liu c tnh t lng tiu th nhin liu thc t v gi nhin
liu suy ra t GSA. Lng nhin liu hng nm c xc nh bng h s s dng nhin liu
EPC, h s ny thay i t nm ny sang nm khc do xung cp v lch bo tr. H s s dng
nhin liu EPC c tnh l bnh qun theo trng s pht in ca cc h s s dng nhin liu
theo hp ng EPC cho cc h s ti nh my khc nhau, gi nh h s ti c cho trong bng
5.4 di y.
Gi nh v chi ph hot ng ngoi nhin liu: nh ph vn hnh v bo tr c gi nh bnh
qun bng 10,34 triu USD mt nm bao gm chi ph bo tr ln bng USD theo gi nm 2001.
Bin ph vn hnh v bo tr c gi nh bng 0,054 cents/kWh theo gi nm 2001.
5.5 Gi in d n
Trong m hnh ti chnh, vic tnh cng sut d kin v thanh ton nng lng da vo biu 5
trong PPA. Gi bn in bao gm cc cu phn sau y:

nh ph cng sut (FCC), cu phn ny nhm phc v cho (1) vic hon tr li v
vn vay, (ii) sinh li t u t vn vo d n, (iii) thu;

nh ph vn hnh v bo tr (FOMC);

Bin ph vn hnh v bo tr (VOMC);

Ph nhin liu (FC) da vo h s s dng nhin liu theo hp ng.

nh ph cng sut: FCC c lp ch s theo USD t t gi hi oi tham chiu ban u l

12.978 VND/USD. FCC khng tng theo ch s lm pht nhng s c iu chnh theo bin
thin t gi hi oi VND/USD. FCC c tnh trn c s (i) Cng sut ng tin cy (xem cc
World Bank

19

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

gi tr gi nh trong bng B) v (ii) gi tr USD/kW/thng cho trong bng A di y. V gi

in da vo gi tr bng USD ca FCC, nn gi tr thc t bng VND ca FCC s ph thuc vo
t gi hi oi thc t VND/USD.
nh ph vn hnh v bo tr (FOMC): FOMC c tnh t cng sut ng tin cy v bao gm
cu phn a phng (FOMC-L) v cu phn nc ngoi (FOMC-F).

FOMC-L l 4095 VND mi kWh in mt thng. Ph ny s c lp ch s theo ch

s a phng.

FOMC-F l 10.859 VND mi kWh in mt thng theo gi tr USD nm 1998 vi t

gi 12.978 VND/USD. Ph ny s c iu chnh theo bin thin t gi hi oi
USD-VND v c lp ch s theo ch s nc ngoi.

Bin ph vn hnh v bo tr (VOMC): VOMC c tnh cho mi kWh sn lng in rng v

gm mt cu phn a phng (VOMC-L) v mt cu phn nc ngoi (VOMC-F).

VOMC-L l 1,80 VND mt kWh. Ph ny s c lp ch s theo ch s a phng.

VOM-F l 2,72 VND mt kWh theo gi tr USD nm 1998 vi t gi 12.978

VND/USD. Ph ny s c iu chnh theo s bin thin t gi hi oi USD-VND
v c lp ch s theo ch s nc ngoi.

Ph nhin liu: Ph nhin liu c tnh bng gi kh t thc t ca PV, l gi EVN phi tr cho
mt kWh sn lng in rng, nhn cho h s s dng nhin liu theo hp ng, tng ng vi
mt h s ti nh my c th v nhit mi trng ph hp.
H s s dng nhin liu bnh qun trng s c s dng trong m hnh ti chnh, gi nh cc
h s ti nh sau, ph hp vi h s ti xut trong Yu cu xut do MOI lp nm 1998.
ng cong iu chnh h s s dng nhin liu theo hp ng PPA ng vi s bin thin ti
c suy ra t xut ca c ng trnh nhm phc p Yu cu xut ca MOI v nht
qun vi cc tiu chun ngnh.
Bng 5.4: H s ti nh my gi nh
Ti
100%
75%
50%

World Bank

Thi gian
50%
20%
10%

20

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

5.6 Thu
C ch thu: MECO c min thu thu nhp 8 nm k t nm u tin hot ng c li, ph
hp vi Lut u t nc ngoi ca Vit Nam, Hp ng BOT v Giy php u t. Sau ,
thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip l 10%.
Thu khu lu trn c tc chuyn giao l 3%, ph hp vi Lut u t nc ngoi ca Vit
Nam, Hp ng BOT v Giy php u t.
Thu khu lu khng p dng cho vn vay theo cc chng trnh ca cc t chc a phng, bao
gm cc khon vay c bo lnh ri ro chnh tr ca IDA, vay trc tip ca ADB v vay t nhn
c ADB bo lnh v bo him ri ro chnh tr. Thu khu lu cng c min theo Hip nh
nh thu hai ln k kt gia Nht Bn v Vit Nam i vi vn vay ca JBIC.
Cn c theo Hp ng BOT v lut php Vit Nam, MECO v cc nh thu c min thu
nhp khu. Cn c theo lut thu Vit Nam, thu gi tr gia tng pht sinh vi MECO trong qu
trnh xy dng s c chi cc thu a phng khu hon cho MECO (theo l thuyt l trn c
s hng thng).
Khu hao: Theo lut thu Vit Nam (tham kho Quyt nh s 1062TC/QD/CSTC ca MOI ban
hnh ngy 14-11-1996), ton b khu hao c tnh theo phng php khu hao ng thng.
Thi gian khu hao cc ti sn khc nhau c th iu chnh trong mt phm vi c th theo ni
dung ca Quyt nh nu trn. Quyt nh khng a ra mt danh mc y chi tit v nh
ngha cc chng loi ti sn, nhng c s linh hot trong vic phn loi nhng ti sn khng bao
hm trong Quyt nh.
Nh qui nh trong Hp ng BOT v ph hp vi cc qui nh ca Vit Nam, ti sn c nh
lin quan n nh my v chi ph ti tr lin quan c th c khu hao trong thi gian hot
ng hu ch ca D n, ngha l 30 nm. Cc khon mc v hnh nh chi ph pht trin v chi
ph trc khi hot ng, c khu hao trong thi gian 8 nm.
5.7 Vn lu ng
Trc ngy bt u hot ng thng mi, cc yu cu vn lu ng ca d n s c ti tr t
ngun Chi ph C bn ca D n. Cc yu cu vn lu ng ny lin quan n (i) thi gian chm
tr t lc thanh ton thu gi tr gia tng khi mua vt t xy dng a phng cho n lc c
chi cc thu a phng khu hon v (ii) cc yu cu ti tr trong thi k hot ng ban u.
Trong thi k hot ng thng mi, yu cu vn lu ng ca D n s lin quan n thi gian
chm tr gia cc khon phi thu v cc khon phi tr ca D n. Cc gi nh trong lnh vc
ny c trnh by trong bng di y.
Bng 5.5 Cc thnh phn trong yu cu vn lu ng ca D n
Khon phi thu
Khon phi tr cho kh t nhin
Khon phi tr cho vic vn hnh v bo tr

2 thng
2 thng
2 thng

World Bank

21

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

5.8 Tm tt cc kt qu ca m hnh ti chnh

Tnh cc t s ti chnh: H s an ton tr n (DSCR) c tnh bng ngn lu hot ng rng
chia cho tng gi tr cc khon n phi tr (tr li v tr n gc) pht sinh trong k tng ng.
DSCR c tnh trn c s 12 thng v khng bao gm s d ti thiu bt buc trong Ti khon
d tr tr n hay Ti khon d tr i tu.
Gi in: Gi in c tnh trn c s (i) t l lm pht Hoa K c gi nh bng 2,5%/nm,
(ii) mc tng gi kh t c qui nh trong GSA ngha l 2%/nm v (iii) bin thin t gi hi
oi VND/USD c cho trong m hnh ti chnh.
Gi in hng nm ti a l di 4,36 cents/kWh vi gi bnh qun l 4,07 cents/kWh v gi cn
bng qua cc nm theo sut chit khu 10% l 4,14 cents/kWh. Xem bng di y.
Bng 5.6: Phn tch gi in d n
Nm hot ng ca D n
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Nhin liu, Cents/kWh

2,25
2,30
2,34
2,38
2,43
2,48
2,52
2,57
2,62
2,67
2,72
2,78
2,83
2,88
2,94
3,00
3,05
3,11
3,17
3,19

Gi in ton b, Cents/kWh
4,26
4,34
4,36
4,25
4,15
4,24
4,15
4,08
4,02
3,97
3,94
3,92
3,90
3,90
3,90
3,91
3,93
3,97
4,05
4,08

H s an ton tr n: Cc h s an ton tr n bnh qun v ti thiu trong m hnh c s c

cho trong bng di y.
Bng 5.7 H s an ton tr n bnh qun v ti thiu trong m hnh c s
H s an ton tr n bnh qun
H s an ton tr n ti thiu

World Bank

1,51
1,35

22

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

D bo Ti chnh ca MECO: Bo co thu nhp (n v: 1.000 USD)

Nm hot ng
kt thc 30/11
Doanh thu
Chi ph hot ng
Chi ph hot ng v qun l
Chi ph sa cha
Chi ph nhin liu
Tng chi ph hot ng
Chi ph ti chnh
Li nhun hot ng gp
Khu hao
EBIT
Thu nhp li vay t d tr tin mt
Chi ph li vay v bo lnh
Li nhun trc thu
Thu thu nhp doanh nghip
Li nhun sau thu
Nm hot ng
kt thc 30/11
Doanh thu
Chi ph hot ng
Chi ph hot ng v qun l
Chi ph sa cha
Chi ph nhin liu
Tng chi ph hot ng
Chi ph ti chnh
Li nhun hot ng gp
Khu hao
EBIT
Thu nhp li vay t d tr tin mt
Chi ph li vay v bo lnh
Li nhun trc thu
Thu thu nhp doanh nghip
Li nhun sau thu
World Bank

1
2005
200.779

2
2006
202.477

3
2007
200.865

4
2008
194.827

5
2009
191.448

6
2010
194.357

7
2011
190.455

8
2012
187.069

9
2013
184.734

10
2014
182.861

11.041

5.829
4.535
105.703
116.067
693
84.019
22.942
61.077
299
33.488
27.888

5.927
3.000
107.298
116.225
454
85.798
22.942
62.856
242
26.616
36.482

5.738
28.771
108.556
143.065
443
57.357
22.942
34.415
424
24.231
10.608

5.409
3.152
110.555
119.116
433
75.278
22.942
52.336
101
21.807
30.630

5.544
3.231
112.594
121.369
417
69.662
22.942
46.720
307
19.373
27.654

5.682
34.009
114.759
154.450
416
39.491
22.942
16.549
512
16.939
122

5.819
454
117.208
123.481
403
66.571
22.942
43.629
68
14.366
29.331

11.041

27.888

36.482

10.608

30.630

27.654

122

29.331

5.966
4.900
119.458
130.324
387
56.358
22.165
34.193
240
11.802
22.631
147
22.484

6.119
21.767
121.852
149.738
357
34.639
18.282
16.357
122
9.199
7.280
2.212
5.068

6.267
489
124.396
131.152
341
51.368
18.282
33.086
79
7.231
25.934
1.109
24.825

11
2015
181.126

12
2016
180.299

13
2017
179.859

14
2018
179.430

15
2019
179.873

16
2020
180.538

17
2021
181.312

18
2022
183.634

19
2023
186.731

20
2024
156.359

6.425
5.277
126.739
138.441
326
42.359
18.282
24.077
280
5.177
19.180
1.918
17.262

6.589
25.819
129.109
161.517
315
18.467
18.116
351
385
3.198
-2.462
1.760
-4.222

6.749
527
131.769
139.045
269
40.545
17.282
23.263
72
1.234
22.101
204
21.897

6.919
5.683
134.307
146.909
213
32.308
17.282
15.026
252
87
15.191
1.592
13.599

7.096
22.451
136.996
166.543
200
13.130
17.282
-4.152
457

7.268
567
139.784
147.619
200
32.719
17.282
15.437
673

7.451
6.120
142.368
155.939
200
25.173
17.282
7.891
1.328

7.641
31.807
145.200
184.648
200
-1.214
17.282
-18.496
1.840

7.921
611
147.657
156.189
200
30.342
17.282
13.060
1.844

7.130
6.469
123.322
136.921
200
19.238
14.402
4.836
2.493

-3.695
1.357
-5.052

16.110

9.219
968
8.251

-16.656
891
-17.547

14.904

7.329

14.904

7.329

33.403
968
17.570
18.538
14.865
3.824
11.041

23

16.110

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

D bo Ti chnh ca MECO: Bng cn i ti sn (n v: 1.000 USD)

Nm hot ng
kt thc vo 30/11
TI SN
Ti sn ngn hn
Khon phi thu
D tr du
Ti sn ngn hn khc
Cng
Tin mt v d tr
Ti khon d tr cho hot ng
Ti khon tin mt cam kt
Cn i tin mt t do
Cng
Tng ti sn ngn hn
Ti sn c nh
Ti sn c nh gp
Khu hao ly tch
Ti sn c nh rng
TNG TI SN
NGUN VN
N ngn hn
Khon phi tr kh t nhin
Khon phi tr chi ph hot ng
Tng n ngn hn
Tng n di hn
Vn ch s hu
Vn gp
Li nhun cha phn phi
Tng vn ch s hu
TNG NGUN VN
T l ti sn ngn hn/n ngn hn
T l n di hn/vn ch s hu
T l n/vn ch s hu
World Bank

1
2005

2
2006

3
2007

4
2008

5
2009

6
2010

7
2011

8
2012

9
2013

10
2014

33.403
4.900
1.648
39.951

33.644
4.900
1.648
40.192

33.689
4.900
1.648
40.237

32.956
4.900
1.648
39.504

32.062
4.900
1.648
38.610

32.265
4.900
1.648
38.813

32.062
4.900
1.648
38.610

31.444
4.900
1.648
37.992

30.976
4.900
1.648
37.524

30.633
4.900
1.648
37.181

30.319
4.900
1.648
36.867

7.567

16.669

10.312

20.545

8.587

12.726

7.567
47.759

16.669
56.906

0
39.504

10.312
48.922

20.545
59.358

0
38.610

8.587
46.579

12.726
50.250

0
37.181

10.039
46.906

391.096
431.047

394.92
0
(26.76
5)
368.15
5
415.914

394.92
0
(49.70
7)
345.21
3
402.119

394.92
0
(72.64
9)
322.27
1
361.775

394.92
0
(95.59
0)
299.33
0
348.252

394.92
0
(118.5
32)
276.38
8
335.746

394.92
0
(141.4
74)
253.44
6
292.056

394.92
0
(164.4
16)
230.50
4
277.083

394.92
0
(186.5
81)
208.33
9
258.589

394.92
0
(204.8
63)
190.05
7
227.238

394.92
0
(223.1
45)
171.77
5
218.681

17.570
968
18.538
302.763

17.758
984
18.742
286.556

17.976
976
18.952
261.858

18.259
921
19.180
236.996

18.595
913
19.508
211.637

18.941
936
19.877
186.774

19.334
958
20.292
160.353

19.720
982
20.702
133.535

20.106
1.007
21.113
107.213

20.524
1.032
21.556
83.528

20.929
1.057
21.986
61.954

100.000
9.746
109.746
431.047

100.000
10.616
110.616
415.914

100.000
21.309
121.309
402.119

100.000
5.599
105.599
361.775

100.000
17.107
117.107
348.252

100.000
29.095
129.095
335.746

100.000
11.411
111.411
292.056

100.000
22.846
122.846
277.083

100.000
30.263
130.263
258.589

100.000
22.154
122.154
227.238

100.000
34.741
134.741
218.681

2,16
2,76
2,93

2,55
2,59
2,76

3,00
2,16
2,31

2,06
2,24
2,43

2,51
1,81
1,97

2,99
1,45
1,6

1,9
1,44
1,62

2,25
1,09
1,26

2,38
0,82
0,99

1,72
0,68
0,86

2,13
0,46
0,62

39.951

394.920
(3.824)

24

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

10.039

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

DSCR ti thiu
DSCR bnh qun

1,35
1,51

Nm hot ng
kt thc vo 30/11
TI SN
Ti sn ngn hn
Khon phi thu
D tr du
Ti sn ngn hn khc
Cng
Tin mt v d tr
Ti khon d tr cho hot ng
Ti khon tin mt cam kt
Cn i tin mt t do
Cng
Tng ti sn ngn hn
Ti sn c nh

11
2015

12
2016

13
2017

14
2018

15
2019

16
2020

17
2021

18
2022

19
2023

20
2024

30.112
4.900
1.648
36.660

30.016
4.900
1.648
36.564

29.927
4.900
1.648
36.475

29.938
4.900
1.648
36.486

30.037
4.900
1.648
36.585

30.132
4.900
1.648
36.680

30.393
4.900
1.648
36.941

30.897
4.900
1.648
37.445

31.212
4.900
1.648
37.760

10.424
4.900
1.648
16.972

9.027

12.898
16.469
4.255
20.724
57.309

12.264
33.752
8.475
54.491
91.171

18.976
51.034
10.241
80.251
117.192

68.316
11.672
79.988
117.433

2.929
85.598
23.631
112.158
149.918

100.000
37.347
137.347
154.319

Ti sn c nh gp
Khu hao ly tch
Ti sn c nh rng
TNG TI SN
NGUN VN
N ngn hn
Khon phi tr kh thin nhin
Khon phi tr chi ph hot ng
Tng n ngn hn
Tng n di hn
Vn ch s hu
Vn gp
Li nhun cha phn phi
Tng vn ch s hu
TNG NGUN VN
T l ti sn ngn hn/n ngn hn
World Bank

15.291

15.291
51.951

0
36.564

9.027
45.502

12.898
49.384

394.92
0
(276.8
25)
118.09
5
163.597

394.92
0
(294.1
08)
100.81
2
150.196

394.92
0
(311.3
89)

394.92
0
(328.6
72)

394.92
0
(345.9
55)

394.92
0
(363.2
36)

394.92
0
(380.5
18)

394.92
0
(394.9
20)

153.492
205.443

394.92
0
(259.5
43)
135.37
7
171.941

83.531
140.840

66.248
157.419

48.965
166.157

31.684
149.117

14.402
164.320

0
154.319

21.315
1.085
22.400
41.122

21.742
1.111
22.853
20.787

22.171
1.139
23.310
3.971

22.606
1.168
23.774

23.069
1.197
24.266

23.509
1.226
24.735

23.963
1.258
25.221

24.439
1.289
25.728

24.642
1.384
26.026

8.221
475
8.696

100.000
41.921
141.921
205.443

100.000
28.301
128.301
171.941

100.000
36.316
136.316
163.597

100.000
26.422
126.422
150.196

100.000
16.574
116.574
140.840

100.000
32.684
132.684
157.419

100.000
40.936
140.936
166.157

100.000
23.389
123.389
149.117

100.000
38.294
138.294
164.320

100.000
45.623
145.623
154.319

2,32

1,6

1,95

2,08

2,36

3,69

4,65

4,56

5,76

17,74

394.920
(241.428)

25

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

T l n di hn/vn ch s hu
T l n/vn ch s hu
DSCR ti thiu
DSCR bnh qun

World Bank

Thm nh u t pht trin

Nghin cu tnh hung

0,29
0,45

0,16
0,34

26

D n in Ph M 2 giai on 2 Vit Nam

0,03
0,2

0,19

0,21

0,19

Bin dch: Kim Chi

Hiu nh: Nguyn Xun Thnh

0,18

0,21

0,19

0,06