Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Nin kha 2011-2013

Kinh t hc v m
Bi c
M hnh IS-LM v tng cu AD

David Spencer/Chu Vn Thnh 1
M M h h n nh h I IS S- -L LM M v v T T n ng g c c u u A AD D

1. Tm tt m hnh IS-LM

2. Tip theo, chng ta cn:
- Cch thc m hnh IS-LM c dng gii thch bin ng ca Y (chi tiu
thc)
- S dng IS-LM thit k ng AD
- Xem xt chuyn i t ngn hn sang di hn
- ng dng m hnh gii thch i khng hong 1929-33

3. Cch thc m hnh IS-LM c dng gii thch bin ng ca Y (chi tiu thc)
vi P hng s? Nhng bin i ca Y l kt qu t s dch chuyn ca cc ng IS
v LM

- Chnh sch ti kho: Xem xt tng G:














V vy, r Y G | + | |

Chnh sch ti kho vn hnh nh th no?
... Y I r L Y G + + | | | | (hin tng ln t mt phn)










Y
IS(G
2
)
r
Y
1
Y
2
r
2
r
1
LM
IS(G
1
)
Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Kinh t hc v m
Bi c
M hnh IS-LM v tng cu AD

David Spencer/Chu Vn Thnh 2




- Chnh sch tin t: Xem xt tng M:

V vy, r Y M + + | |

Chnh sch tin t vn hnh nh th no?
Y I r P M M | | + | | ) / ( (c ch truyn dn tin)

- Cc c sc i vi IS: cc bin ngoi sinh thay i cu hng ho v dch v. V
d: gia tng s lc quan trong gii kinh doanh ko theo dch IS sang phi
r Y | + |

- Cc c sc i vi LM: cc bin ngoi sinh lm thay i cu tin. V d: tng
cu tin ngoi sinh ko theo dch LM ln trn (sang tri) r Y | + +

4. T IS-LM thit k ng AD
- dc: tng gi nh hng nh th no vi Y?

Gi s P tng t P
1
ln P
2

) / ( P M P + | : LM dch ln trn (sang tri)

Kinh t hc v dc m ca AD:
... ) / ( Y I r P M P + + | + |
LM(
1
M )

LM(
2
M )

IS
Y Y
1


Y
2


r
1


r
2


r

A
B
Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Kinh t hc v m
Bi c
M hnh IS-LM v tng cu AD

David Spencer/Chu Vn Thnh 3

- Dch chuyn AD? Cc yu t (tr P A ) lm dch IS v LM s lm dch ng
AD. V d: chnh sch ti kho, chnh sch tin t

Xem xt tng G:

- ng AD t phn tch i s: Gii phng trnh IS v LM tm Y theo P
C = C(Y-T) = a +b(Y-T)
I = c dr = I(r)
G = G
T = T

P
M
P
M
s
=
L(r, Y) = eY fr

Y
2

Y
1

Y
2
Y
1
Y
P r
LM(M/P
2
)

LM(M/P
1
)
AD
Y
P
2
P
1
AD(G
1
)
AD(G
2
)
Y Y
1


Y
2


Y
1


Y
2


Y
r P
P
1
IS(G
1
)

IS(G
2
)
LM(M/P
1
)


Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Kinh t hc v m
Bi c
M hnh IS-LM v tng cu AD

David Spencer/Chu Vn Thnh 4
IS: ] ) [(
1
1
dr T b G c a
b
Y + + |
.
|

\
|

=

LM:
|
|
.
|

\
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

|
|
.
|

\
|
=
P
M
f
Y
f
e
r
1

Tnh r bng cch thay phng trnh LM vo phng trnh IS. Gii tm Y theo P:
AD: ( )
|
|
.
|

\
|
(

+
+ + +
(

+
=
P
M
de b f
d
T b G c a
de b f
f
Y
) 1 ( ) 1 (


T phng trnh AD, rt ra:
- ng AD c dc m: Y P + |
- Chnh sch ti kho m rng ( G | , T + ) hay chnh sch tin t m rng
( M | ) dch chuyn ng AD sang phi (tng Y vi P cho trc)

5. Chng ta pht trin l thuyt v tng cu AD. L thuyt cn bng kinh t v m yu
cu chng ta kt hp l thuyt tng cung. L thuyt tng cung t m hnh c in nh
sau:
AS Y L K F Y = = ) , ( l ng dc ng trn to (Y, P)
- Cn bng trong di hn (m hnh c in): Y AD = (hnh 5.1)

- Chng ta s tho lun v l thuyt tng cung ngn hn sau ny. By gi, gi s P
c nh trong ngn hn SRAS l ng nm ngang ti mc gi c nh P = P
1
.
Trong di hn , P iu chnh cn bng tng cung tng cu

Cn bng ngn hn: AD = SRAS (hnh 5.2)

6. Cc iu chnh ngn hn v di hn ng vi s tng ln ca AD:
Hnh 5.1 Hnh 5.2
SRAS
AD AD
LRAS P
P
1
Y
Y
1
Y Y
P
P
1
Y
1
c th khc Y

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Kinh t hc v m
Bi c
M hnh IS-LM v tng cu AD

David Spencer/Chu Vn Thnh 5

Bt u bng mt s cn bng di hn ti A: ( Y , r
1
), (Y , P
1
)
- Gi s tng G: IS dch sang IS; chuyn n im B: (Y
2
, r
1
), (Y
2
, P
1
). y l cn
bng ngn hn
- Trong di hn, P s iu chnh. Khi P tng, di chuyn dc theo AD, LM dch
sang LM; chuyn n im C: (Y , r
3
), (Y , P
3
). y l cn bng di hn

Ghi ch:
- Trong ngn hn c hin tng ln t mt phn; trong di hn hin tng ln t l
hon ton
- C 3 bin s cn quan tm: Y, r, P. M hnh IS-LM tp trung vo Y v r li P. M
hnh AS-AD tp trung vo Y v P li r
- Trong ngn hn, chng ta xem xt P c nh, v vy Y v r iu chnh tho IS =
LM. Trong di hn, Y = Y , v vy r v P iu chnh tho IS = LM

V ton hc: chng ta c 2 phng trnh vi 3 bin s cha bit (Y, r, P); nh vy cn
mt phng trnh th ba. Trong ngn hn, chng ta c P = P
1
; trong di hn ta c Y = Y

7. i khng hong: Mt cu chuyn lch s rt quan trng v kinh t ca M v chu u.
Gio trnh chn cch gii thch da vo m hnh IS-LM (c ti liu hiu y hn)

a. D kin:
- Y gim 30% gia 1929 v 1933
- u t 3,2% 1929 ln 25,2% 1933
- M gim t 25% gia 1929 v 1933
- P gim 22% gia 1929 v 1933
- i gim t 5,9% 1929 cn 1,7% 1933

Theo anh ch, iu g thc s xy ra? IS dch, LM dch hay thay i no khc?

LS
P
Y Y
r
SRAS
SRAS
AD(G
2
)
AD(G
1
)

P
3
P
1

Y
Y
Y
2
Y
2
IS(G
1
)
IS(G
2
)
r
3
r
2
r
1
LM(M/P
2
)
LM(M/P
1
)

C
A
B
(1)
(2)
A
C
B
(1)
(2)
Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Kinh t hc v m
Bi c
M hnh IS-LM v tng cu AD

David Spencer/Chu Vn Thnh 6
Ghi ch:
- Gim Y c ngha l chng ta hm ngn hn ngoi tr trng hp chng ta
lp lun rng Y gim (khng chc chn). Do vy, AD phi gim (dch tri)
- Dch tri ca AD (nh l gim Y trong ngn hn) yu cu dch tri ca hoc l
IS hay LM
- Khng th c suy lun trc tip v thay i ca r t thay i ca i

b. Mt vi cch gii thch c ngh nh sau: (c th ng mt phn)

(1) Kim nh v chi tiu: ng IS dch tri t st gim chi tiu mang tnh ngoi
sinh [gim nim tin ca ngi tiu dng t s sp ca th trng chng khon
1929. Chnh ph thc hin chnh sch tht cht ti kho . Tm l by n v st
gim nghim trng cu nh vo u nhng nm 1930. Cng vi cc ngn hng
tht bi ko theo phn b tn dng]

(2) M gim dch LM sang tri. Trc trc ca cch gii thch ny (t nht l cho n
1931) l cn bng tin thc khng gim. Do vy, LM khng dch sang tri.
[M/P gim gia 1931 v 1933]

(3) M gim lm Y gim thng qua gim P. Hai l do c th l:

- L thuyt Gim pht-N: P gim khng mong i ko theo phn phi li
thu nhp t ngi i vay n ngi cho vay. Nu ngi cho vay c MPC
thp hn ngi i vay, chi tiu rng s gim. IS dch tri.

- Hiu ng Fisher: (tc ng ca P gim khng mong i): Nh li i = r
+
e
. Khi
e
= 0, i = r. V vy, m hnh IS-LM n gin s c gii thch
khc i khi I ph thuc r cn L ph thuc i

Mt cch phc tp hn, m hnh IS-LM c th c vit li nh sau:
IS: ) ( ) ( r I Y S =
LM: ) , ( Y r L
P
M
e
t + =

Tip theo, ng LM dch khi c s thay i ca
e
. Khi
e
gim, cu tin
tng ko theo LM dch ln trn

[Ghi ch: cch tip cn ny khc vi ti liu, nu gi r trn trc tung,
ng LM s dch, khng phi IS. Mankiw vit li m hnh IS-LM theo i,
li sut danh ngha]

IS: ) ( ) (
e
i I Y S t =
LM: ) , ( Y i L
P
M
=

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Kinh t hc v m
Bi c
M hnh IS-LM v tng cu AD

David Spencer/Chu Vn Thnh 7
Theo , khi
e
gim, ng IS dch tri thay v LM

Chng ta s dng m hnh IS-LM vi r trn trc tung: trong sut giai on
i khng hong,
e
gim, dch LM ln trn

Bt u t A vi
e
=0: (Y
1
, r
1
), i = r
By gi,
e
gim n
2
< 0. LM dch sang LM, nn kinh t chuyn n
im B: (Y
2
, r
2
), r > i
i r Y M
e
+ | + + + , , t

LM(
e
=
2
)
LM(
e
=0)

IS
Y Y
2
Y
1
r
r
2
i
1
= r
1
i
2

B
A

2
<0