B GIO DC V O TO TRNG I HC KINH T TP.

HCM

TIU LUN:
NH GI S TC NG CA THM HT NGN SCH I VI TRI PHIU CHNH PH GVHD: NG VN CNG

DANH SCH NHM 1. Nguyn Th Nhung SDT Email 2. 3. 4. 5. NH006 : 0977126567 : nhungtb2010@gmail.com NH006 NH006 NH004 NH006

Nguyn nh Bnh Minh Nguyn Th Phong Vn Nguyn Th Y Na Mai Qunh Bch Tuyt

TP. H Ch Minh, Ngy 26 Thng 8 nm 2012

B GIO DC V O TO TRNG I HC KINH T TP.HCM

TIU LUN:
NH GI S TC NG CA THM HT NGN SCH I VI TRI PHIU CHNH PH GVHD: NG VN CNG

DANH SCH NHM 6. Nguyn Th Nhung SDT Email NH006 : 0977126567 : nhungtb2010@gmail.com NH006 NH006 NH004 NH006

7. Nguyn nh Bnh Minh 8. Nguyn Th Phong Vn 9. Nguyn Th Y Na 10.Mai Qunh Bch Tuyt

TP. H Ch Minh, Ngy 26 Thng 8 nm 2012

1. Dn nhp. 1.1. L do chn ti: i ph vi suy thoi kinh t theo sau cuc khng hong ti chnh ton cu nm 2008, chnh ph ca nhiu quc gia thng qua cc gi kch thch kinh t vi cc kch c v kt cu khc nhau. Tuy nhin, nhn chung tt c chng u chim mt phn ln trong tng GDP quc gia khin mc thm ht ngn sch gia tng ng k, Vit Nam cng khng l mt ngoi l. Vit Nam, Quc hi thng qua gi kch cu tr gi gn 8 t USD vo u thng 2/2009, nng mc thm ht ngn sch thi im cui nm 2008 l 4.1% GDP tng ln mc 10.1% trong nm 2009. gii quyt vn nan gii , chnh ph s dng rt nhiu gii php trong c pht hnh tri phiu chnh ph. Nhm lm r mi quan h , chng ti i su vo nghin cu thc nghim tc ng ca pht hnh tri phiu chnh ph n thm ht ngn sch v ly tn ti l nh gi s tc ng ca thm ht ngn sch i vi tri phiu chnh ph. 1.2. Mc tiu nghin cu Mc tiu nghin cu ca ti l lm r v nhng nh hng ca s lng, li sut tri phiu chnh ph ti thm ht ngn sch Vit Nam trong thi gian qua c bit l nhng nm khng hong kinh t gn y. 1.3. Phng php nghin cu Phng php nghin cu ti l phng php thu nhp thng tin t s quan st, sch bo, gio trnh, thu nhp s liu thc t v da trn s liu rt ra kt lun. ng thi s dng m hnh hi quy OLS kim nh s ph thuc tuyn tnh ca s lng, li sut tri phiu chnh ph pht hnh i vi thm ht ngn sch. 1.4. Cu hi nghin cu 1.4.1. Khi thm ht ngn sch tng th khi lng tri phiu pht hnh c tng hay khng? 1.4.2. Khi thm ht ngn sch tng th li sut tri phiu pht hnh c tng hay khng? 1.4.3. Li sut tri phiu pht hnh v khi lng tri phiu pht hnh c tc ng tr li thm ht ngn sch nh nc hay khng? 1.4.4. Ti sao pht hnh tri phiu chnh ph l mt cng c ch ng ca nh nc trong b p ngn sch nhng chnh ph li t s dng bin php ny.

2. C s l thuyt 2.1. Thm ht ngn sch 2.1.1. Khi nim thm ht ngn sch nh nc: Thm ht ngn sch Nh nc l tnh trng chi tiu ca ngn sch Nh nc vt qu s thu ca ngn sch Nh nc trong mt nm. Thm ht ngn sch tr thnh mt hin tng ph bin hu ht cc nc km pht trin, ang pht trin, m ngay c nhng quc gia pht trin. 2.1.2. Phn loi thm ht ngn sch nh nc: Ti chnh cng hin i phn loi thm ht ngn sch thnh hai loi: thm ht c cu v thm ht chu k. Thm ht c cu hay cn gi l thm ht mang tnh ch ng bt buc do Nh nc thay i chnh sch thu, chi. Thm ht chu k bt ngun t s nh hng bin ng ca chu k kinh t. y c xem nh mt dng bi chi th ng. 2.1.3. Nguyn nhn gy ra thm ht ngn sch. Thm ht ngn sch do rt nhiu nguyn nhn, v c s nh hng khc nhau n s cn i v m ca nn kinh t. V c bn, tnh trng thm ht ngn sch nh nc gm cc nguyn nhn chnh sau: 2.1.3.1. Tht thu thu nh nc Thu l ngun thu chnh v bn vng nht cho ngn sch nh nc bn cnh cc ngun thu khc nh ti nguyn, doanh nghip nh nc vay, nhn vin trtuy nhin, do h thng php lut ta cn nhiu bt cp, s qun l cha cht ch to k h cho cc c nhn, t chc li dng trn thu, gy tht thu mt lng ng k cho ngn sch nh ncin hnh, trong nm 2008 lng thuc l nhp lu vo nc ta lm tht thu thu, ly i ca ngn sch nh nc 2.500- 3000 t ng. 2.1.3.2. u t cng km hiu qu Trn thc t, tnh trng u t dn tri gy lng ph cc a phng vn cha c khc phc trit , tin thi cng nhng d n trng im quc gia cn chm v thiu hiu qu, gy lng ph ngun ngn sch nh nc v kim hm s pht trin ca cc vng min, l nguyn nhn chnh dn n thm ht ngn sch nh nc. 2.1.3.3. Nh nc huy ng vn kch cu Chnh ph kch cu qua 3 ngun ti tr chnh l: Pht hnh tri phiu Chnh ph, min gim thu v s dng Qu d tr nh nc. S dng gi gii php kch cu mt mt lm kch thch tiu dng, tng trng kinh t. Tuy nhin, s lm mc thm ht ngn sch tng rt cao khong 8-12%GDP

2.1.3.4. Cha ch trng mi quan h gia chi u t pht trin v chi thng xuyn y l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn gy cng thng v ngn sch p lc bi chi ngn sch (nht l ngn sch cc a phng). Chng ta c th thy, thng qua c ch phn cp ngun thu v nhim v chi gia cc cp ngn sch v c ch b sung t ngn sch cp trn cho ngn sch cp di. 2.1.3.5. Quy m chi tiu ca chnh ph qu ln. Tng chi tiu ca chnh ph mt mt gip nn kinh t tng trng tm thi trong ngn hn, nhng li to ra nhng nguy c bt n lu di nh lm pht v ri ro ti chnh do s thiu hiu qu ca cc khon chi tiu cng v thiu c ch gim st m bo s hot ng lnh mnh ca h thng ti chnh. 2.1.3.6. Bn cnh , s thiu ht ngn sch trong nhng nm qua cn c s dng nh mt cng c trong chnh sch ti kha kch thch s tng trng kinh t. 2.1.4. Nhng yu t tc ng n thm ht ngn sch Th nht, do tc ng ca chu k kinh doanh, trong thi k khng hong hay suy gim kinh t s lm cho thu nhp ca quc gia b thu hp li, ng thi nhu cu chi tiu tng ln p ng nhng kh khn v kinh t x hi, t dn n thm ht ngn sch tng. V ngc li. Th hai, thm ht ngn sch chu tc ng ca h thng chnh sch cng nh cc quan im, mc tiu, nhim v pht trin kinh t- x hi trong tng thi k. Th ba, nhng vn v thin tai, dch bnh, tnh hnh chnh tr bt n cng c th tc ng lm tng chi ngn sch, qua gy ra thm ht ngn sch nh nc. Vic qun l v iu hnh ngn sch khng hiu qu, chi tiu ngn sch lng ph cng l tc nhn quan trng nh hng n mc thm ht ngn sch. Th t, l cc nhn t k thut chuyn mn (phn loi, mc lc, phng php cn i, thi im ghi nhn thu chi ngn sch, phng php k ton). Theo , c nhiu trng hp thm ht thp hay gim khng phi xut pht t s ci thin v tnh hnh kinh t v m v ti kha ca chnh ph m do s phn nh sai lch v quy m thu v chi ngn sch ca chnh ph hay l do chi ngn sch thiu minh bch hay l p dng phng php tnh thm ht khng ph hp. 2.1.5. Khi qut tnh hnh thm hut ngn sch Vit Nam Thm ht ngn sch xy ra khi tng chi tiu ca chnh ph cao hn thu thng xuyn. Biu 13: Thm ht ngn sch Vit Nam giai on 2005 2011 Trong giai on 2000-2008, tng chi lun ln hn tng thu, khong chnh lch thu chi ngy cng tng, tc tng thm ht din ra lin tc v ngy cng nhanh, c bit l giai on 2007 2008, t trng tng thm ht trong GDP cao, hu ht trn 5%. Nm 2009, Theo i din ca IMF, th thm ht ngn sch ca Vit Nam trong nm 2009 ln ti 9% GDP, theo cch tnh ca IMF. T l ny cao hn

nhiu so vi mc Vit Nam cng b ch l 6,9% GDP. Nm 2010:Bi chi ngn sch nm 2010 mc 6.2% GDP, gim ng k so vi nm 2009(6,9% GDP).

Ngun: B Ti chnh

Biu Thm ht ngn sch ca Vit Nam v mt s nc chu (20052009) Da vo biu ta nhn thy, Vit Nam c mc thm ht ngn sch cao hn hn cc quc gia khc nh xigapo, Indonexia l 6.3%, 5.5% tng ng trong nm 2010. y l nhng con s phn ng tnh trng thm ht ngn sch Vit Nam ng phi lu tm.

. 2.2. Tri phiu chnh ph. 2.2.1. nh ngha: Tri phiu Chnh ph l mt loi chng khon, do B Ti chnh pht hnh, c thi hn, c mnh gi, c li, xc nhn ngha v tr n ca Chnh ph i vi ngi s hu tri phiu. L nhng tri phiu do chnh ph pht hnh nhm mc ch b p thm ht ngn sch, ti tr cho cc cng trnh cng ch, hoc lm cng c iu tit tin t. Tri phiu chnh ph l loi chng khon khng c ri ro thanh ton v cng l loi tri phiu c tnh thanh khon cao. Do c im , li sut ca tri phiu chnh ph c xem l li sut chun lm cn c n nh li sut ca cc cng c n khc c cng k hn Tri phiu chnh ph thng c coi l khng c ri ro bi chnh ph c th tng thu hoc in thm tin mt chi tr tri phiu o hn 2.2.2. Phn loi tri phiu Chnh ph: C 6 loi: Tn phiu Kho bc Tri phiu kho bc. Tri phiu cng trnh trung ng Tri phiu u t Tri phiu ngoi t. Cng tri xy dng T quc 2.2.3. c im tri phiu Chnh ph: 2.2.3.1. Mt tri phiu chnh ph thng thng c ba c trng chnh: Mnh gi Li sut nh k (coupon) Thi hn. 2.2.3.2. Tri phiu th hin quan h ch n con n gia ngi pht hnh v ngi u t . Pht hnh tri phiu l i vay vn. Mua tri phiu l cho ngi pht hnh vay vn v nh vy, tri ch l ngi nm gi tri phiu (tri ch) c quyn i cc khon thanh ton theo cam kt v khi lng v thi hn, song khng c quyn tham gia vo nhng vn ca bn pht hnh. Li sut ca cc tri phiu rt khc nhau, c quy nh bi cc yu t: Cung cu vn trn th trng tn dng. Mc ri ro ca mi nh pht hnh v ca tng t pht hnh. Ngoi ra, tri phiu chnh ph l loi chng khon khng c ri ro thanh ton v cng l loi tri phiu c tnh thanh khon cao. Do , li sut ca tri phiu chnh ph c xem l li sut chun lm cn c n nh li sut ca cc cng c n khc c cng k hn.

2.2.4. Li ch ca u t tri phiu chnh ph. c min thu thu nhp. Nhng ngi c thu nhp cao mua tri phiu vn c li. Khi mua bn tri phiu, nh u t khng phi tr hoa hng cho ngi mi gii nh c phiu (ngi mi gii c hng phn chnh lch gi bn/mua). Gi c t bin ng v thu nhp kh n nh, l ti sn c mc an ton cao. 2.2.5. Tri phiu chnh ph Vit Nam Tri phiu Chnh ph Vit Nam c cc nh u t nh gi kh cao. Thng 10 nm 2005, ln u tin tri phiu Chnh ph Vit Nam c pht hnh ra th trng vn quc t. 750 triu USD tri phiu c cc nh u t mua ht ngay trong vng 30 giy sau khi pht hnh. Mt kt qu kh c th kh quan hn. t tri phiu ny s c mua bn li trn tt c cc trung tm chng khon (th trng th cp) ln nh Hongkong, Singapore, London, New York, Boston... lin tc n nm 2016. Th trng tri phiu ca Vit Nam cn nh vi tng gi tr khong trn 70 nghn t ng Vit Nam, bng 7,7% GDP, nhng mi trng kinh t x hi ca Vit Nam n nh, t gi USD/VND trong nhng nm qua t bin ng (nm 2006 l 1%) nn th trng tri phiu VN c nh gi s tip tc l im n hp dn ca cc nh u t nc ngoi. Tuy nhin, theo nh gi v th trng tri phiu Chnh ph ca Vit Nam, Tin s Nguyn Th Kim Thanh, Vin Chin lc (Ngn hng Nh nc) cho rng, th trng ny cha pht trin mnh nh cc nc khc, th hin l th trng tri phiu Chnh ph cha hnh thnh c ng cong li sut chun, lng giao dch trn th trng th cp cn t.

3. Kt qu nghin cu. 3.1. Chy m hnh v kim nh m hnh Bng 1: S liu thm ht ngn sch, khi lng tri phiu pht hnh v li sut tri phiu pht hnh giai on 2004-2011

3.1.1. M hnh 1 nh gi s tc ng ca bin thm ht ngn sch ln bin tng khi lng tri phiu pht hnh

T bng trn ta c: Khi thm ht ngn sch tng/gim 1 t th khi lng tri phiu pht hnh tng/gim trung bnh khong 0.240408 t R-squared = 0.227 tc l bin thm ht ngn sch gii thch c ti 22.7% bin khi lng tri phiu pht hnh. Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh: Ho: Ta c p-value = 23.27% > 5% => Chp nhn Ho Kt lun: bin thm ht ngn sch khng nh hng ti khi lng tri phiu pht hnh. Ho: Ta c p-value = 23.265% > 5% => Chp nhn Ho Kt lun: m hnh khng ph hp. 3.1.2. M hnh 2 nh gi s tc ng ca bin thm ht ngn sch ln bin li sut tri phiu pht hnh.

T bng trn ta c: Khi thm ht ngn sch tng/gim 1 t ng th li sut tri phiu pht hnh tng/gim trung bnh khong 1.610369333%. R-square = 0.534767 tc l bin thm ht ngn sch gii thch c ti 53.4767% s thay i ca bin li sut tri phiu pht hnh. Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh: Ho: Ta c p-value = 3.93% < 5% => Bc b Ho Kt lun: bin thm ht ngn sch c nh hng ti bin li sut tri phiu pht hnh. Ho: Ta c p-value = 3.926% < 5% => Bc b Ho Kt lun: m hnh l ph hp. 3.1.3. M hnh 3 nh gi s tc ng ca bin khi lng tri phiu pht hnh ln bin li sut tri phiu pht hnh.

T bng trn ta c: Khi khi lng tri phiu pht hnh tng/gim 1 t ng th li sut tri phiu pht hnh tng/gim trung bnh khong 3.294856083%. R-square = 0.571239 tc l bin khi lng tri phiu pht hnh gii thch c ti 57.1239% s thay i ca bin li sut tri phiu pht hnh. Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh: Ho: Ta c p-value = 3.01% < 5% => Bc b Ho Kt lun: bin khi lng tri phiu pht hnh c nh hng ti bin li sut tri phiu pht hnh. Ho: Ta c p-value = 3.030063% < 5% => Bc b Ho Kt lun: m hnh l ph hp. 3.1.4. M hnh 4 nh gi s tc ng tr li ca bin khi lng tri phiu pht hnh v li sut tri phiu pht hnh ln bin thm ht ngn sch.

T bng trn ta c: Khi khi lng tri phiu pht hnh tng/gim 1 t ng th thm ht ngn sch gim/tng 0.352477 t ng. Khi li sut tri phiu tng/gim 1% th thm ht ngn sch tng/gim 265.2223 t ng. R-square = 0.54833 tc l bin khi lng tri phiu pht hnh v li sut tri phiu pht hnh gii thch c ti 54.833% s thay i ca bin thm ht ngn sch. T m hnh 3 ta thy bin khi lng tri phiu pht hnh v li sut tri phiu pht hnh c hin tng a cng tuyn nn ta khng s dng kim nh T v kim nh F m s dng kim nh wald.

T bng trn ta thy p-value = 0.4871% < 5% => Bc b Ho Kt lun m hnh 4 l ph hp. 3.2. Ti sao pht hnh tri phiu chnh ph l mt cng c ch ng ca chnh ph trong vic b p ngn sch nh nc nhng chnh ph thng t s dng bin php ny.. Tc ng trong nc: Chnh ph mun b p thm ht ngn sch bng pht hnh tri phiu chnh ph. Pht hnh thm tri phiu chnh ph th gi tri phiu chnh ph gim chnh ph phi nng li sut tri phiu th mi huy ng c ngi mua. Li sut tri phiu tng th li sut chung ca nn kinh t cng tng do vy, thay v s hu c phiu, tri phiu cng ty, dn chng s hu tri phiu chnh ph. iu ny lm cho cung v vn cn kit v tit kim ca dn c chuyn thnh n chnh ph dn n li sut tng v cc doanh nghip hn ch u t GDP gim. Nu coi vic nm gi tri phiu chnh ph l mt hnh thc nm gi ti sn th khi chnh ph tng pht hnh tri phiu s ng thi phi tng li sut, ngi nm gi ti sn thy mnh tr nn giu c hn v tiu dng nhiu hn. Tng cu nhn c tc ng tch cc t vic tng chi tiu chnh ph (nh pht hnh cng tri) v tng tiu dng ni trn. Tuy nhin, tng tiu dng dn ti tng lng cu tin. iu ny gy ra p lc lm pht, v th tc ng tiu cc ti tc tng trng thc (bng tc tng trng danh ngha tr t l lm pht). Tc ng ngoi nc: Pht hnh tri phiu lm cho li sut trong nc tng tng i so vi li sut nc ngoi, dn ti lung tin t nc ngoi vo trong nc khin cho t gi hi oi tng lm gim xut khu rng GDP gim.

 Tm li, pht hnh tri phiu tuy c lm tng GDP, song mc tng khng ln v cn c nhng tc ng ko theo lm GDP gim nhiu hn mc tng. Vic chnh ph tng cng pht hnh tri phiu lm cho gi c ca cc tri phiu gim xung th hin vic chi ph vn vay tng ln tc chnh ph cn tng li sut huy ng. Vic tng li sut ny xt trong ngn hn khng gy nhiu nh hng tiu cc n nn kinh t v chnh ph c th tng thu b p. Nhng nu xt mt cch di hn th y l mt cch tim tng nhiu ri ro bi l khi li sut tng qu cao s khin chnh ph gp nhiu kh khn trong vic tr n v phi dng n phng php cui cng l in tin v vic ny s gy ra hin tng lm pht v vy ngi ta ni rng pht hnh tri phiu l phng thc vay n tim n nguy c lm pht. 3.3. xut ca nhm nghin cu. Chnh ph nn c nhng gii php trng tm thc y th trng tri phiu pht trin si ng, hiu qu hn trong thi gian ti. Nh hon thin khun kh php l, hon thin c s h tng th trng v c s nh u t, ci tin k thut v quy trnh pht hnh, tng bc xy dng ng cong li sut chun cho th trng tri phiu. cng c pht hnh tri phiu chnh ph b p thm ht ngn sch ngy cng ph bin v thng xuyn c s dng. Bn cnh vic pht trin th trng tri phiu chnh ph th Th tng yu cu ct gim u t cng v chi ph thng xuyn ca cc c quan s dng ngn sch, kim sot cht ch u t ca cc doanh nghip nh nc, c gng gim t l thm ht ngn sch cn phi c thc hin mt cch trit v nht qun. Tht cht v nng cao hiu qu ca chi tiu cng, c bit l p t k lut nghim ngt i vi hot ng u t ca cc tp on nh nc l iu kin tin quyt c th khi phc li cn bng v m v gia tng hiu qu, tnh n nh v tng trng cho nn kinh t. Theo kin nhm th phi thc hin ng b hai bin php ny nu khng thc hin trit gii php hai th gii php mt cng kh m pht huy tc dng.