PHNG PHP NGHIN CU KINH T

TRNG I HC KINH T TP. H CH MINH KHOA KINH T PHT TRIN B MN PHNG PHP NGHIN CU KINH T ------------------------------------

ti: PHN TCH CC YU T TC NG N VIC THU HT U T TRC TIP NC NGOI TI VIT NAM

Ging vin hng dn: Thy Trn Tin Khai Thy Nguyn Ngc Danh Tn thnh vin ca nhm: 1. Nguyn Th Huyn Trang DT1 K35 2. Nguyn Minh Tr 3. Th Lan Hng 4. Nguyn Don Cm 5. Nguyn Trung Li DT2 K35 DT3 K36 DT2 K36 DT1 K36

TP. H CH MINH, 09/2012

MC LC I. L do chn ti: ............................................................................................................................. 3 II. Mc tiu nghin cu:....................................................................................................................... 4 III. Cu hi nghin cu: ........................................................................................................................ 4 IV. TNG QUAN TI LIU V C S L THUYT ................................................................................. 4 ***C s l thuyt:.......................................................................................................................... 4 1. 2. 3. 4. Cc l thuyt lin quan: ..................................................................................................... 4 Khung khi nim: ............................................................................................................... 5 Gi thuyt nghin cu: .................................................................................................... 16 M hnh nghin cu xut: .......................................................................................... 16

V. Phng php nghin cu: ............................................................................................................. 18 1. 2. 3. Xc nh cc ch tiu nghin cu: ................................................................................... 18 Ngun ti liu nghin cu: .............................................................................................. 18 Cc bc phn tch: ........................................................................................................ 18

VI. Cu trc bo co d kin.............................................................................................................. 19

MC LC MC LC I. Gii thiu vn nghin cu ........................................................................................................... 3 I.1 t vn ....................................................................................................................................... 4

IV. TNG QUAN TI LIU V C S L THUYT ................................................................................. 4 ***C s l thuyt:.......................................................................................................................... 4 1. 2. 3. 4. Cc l thuyt lin quan: ..................................................................................................... 4 Khung khi nim: ............................................................................................................... 5 Gi thuyt nghin cu: .................................................................................................... 16 M hnh nghin cu xut: .......................................................................................... 16

V. Phng php nghin cu: ............................................................................................................. 18 1. 2. 3. Xc nh cc ch tiu nghin cu: ................................................................................... 18 Ngun ti liu nghin cu: .............................................................................................. 18 Cc bc phn tch: ........................................................................................................ 18

VI. Cu trc bo co d kin.............................................................................................................. 19 2

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I. L do chn ti: u t qua bin gii c coi l mt trong nhng tnh nng ni bt nht ca nn kinh t ton cu .Qu trnh ton cu ho ang thc y mnh m s hi nhp ca cc nc vo nn kinh t th gii v khu vc. C th ni, hin nay hu nh khng c quc gia no ng ngoi qu trnh hi nhp quc t, nu khng mun t c lp mnh v ri vo nguy c tt hu.Trong , u t trc tip nc ngoi (FDI) l mt hot ng chim v tr ngy cng quan trng i vi c nc u t v nc tip nhn u t. FDI v ang ng mt vai tr quan trng i vi tng trng kinh t ca cc nc ang pht trin trn th gii. Ti cc quc gia c chnh sch khuyn khch u t nc ngoi hp l, FDI khng ch lm tng cung v vn u t m cn c vai tr thc y chuyn giao cng ngh c bit l thc y qu trnh tch t vn con ngi, mt nhn t thc y tng trng kinh t trong di hn. Cc nn kinh t c cng nghip ha v c th tnh n ngun lao ng r,c trnh lao ng cao .FDI cng c xem l mt cht xc tc mang li khng ch cc ngun vn t bin ng, m c cng ngh v b quyt qun l choti c cu doanh nghip. Nhn thy c vai tr cng nh nhng nh hng ca ngun vn ny chng ti c th a ra mt s nhng c im sau: Th nht: i vi cc nc xut khu vn u t dng FDI l mt trong nhng cch lm hiu qu nhm xy dng c thi trng cung cp nguyn vt liu n nh,gip thay i c cu kinh t trong .nc theo hng hiu qu, phn tn ri ro do tnh hnh kinh t- chnh tr bt n,ng thi bnh trng sc mnh kinh t, nng cao uy tn trn th trng quc t v nng cao hiu qu s dng vn u t. Tuy nhin, mt s nhng tc ng tiu cc m nh u t gp phi cc nc ny l: Ch u t c th gp ri ro ln nu khng hiu bit v mi trng u t,hoc c th xy ra hin tng chy mu cht xm trong qu trnh chuyn giao cng ngh, nu khng c nh hng v chnh sch thch hp th cc nh kinh doanh khng mun kinh doanh trong nc m ch mun kinh doanh nc ngoi, gy ra s tt hu ca nc ch vn u t;hay dn ti lm gim vic lm nc ch u t. Th hai: i vi nc tip nhn vn u t, nu l cc nc t bn pht trin th FDI khng nhng to mi trng cnh tranh thc y s pht trin ca kinh t v thng mi, gip ci thin cn cn thanh ton, to cng n vic lm mi, tng thu ngn sch di hnh thc cc loi thu,m cn hc hi kinh nghim qun l tin tin ca nc ngoi, gip gii quyt nhng vn kh khn v kinh t v x hi trong nc. Cn ring vi cc nc chm pht trin v ang pht trin th FDI c tc dng Gip thu ht lao ng, to vic lm, gii quyt mt phn nn tht nghip, Gp phn ci to mi trng cnh tranh, to iu kin tip nhn khoa hc cng ngh, k thut t nc ngoi, Gip y nhanh tc pht trin ca nn kinh t. Nhng song song vi n c th dn ti tnh trng khai thc ti nguyn thin nhin mt cch thi qu, gy hu qu i nhim mi trng mt cch nghim trng, C th b nh hng hoc l thuc vo nhng yu cu t pha ch u t;lm tng cc vn v t nn x hi, dch bnh; Gy ra s phn ha, tng khong cch pht trin gia cc vng v gia cc tng lp dn c vi nhau.

Cng l mt trong nhng nc nhn c nhiu u i , c bit l s chuyn i sang kinh t th trng ca Vit Nam tho g bt nhng ro cn i vi vic p dng tri thc, mt yu t 3

cc k quan trng gii thch cho nhng thay i nhanh chng Vit Nam trong lnh vc kinh t trong vng hai thp nin va qua, cng vi nhng c ch khuyn khch c ci thin v cnh tranh gia tng (Arkadie v Mallon 2003). Chnh qu trnh chuyn i ca Vit Nam sang nn kinh t th trng thay i din mo ca t nc vi i sng con ngi,bn cnh cn phi nhc n tc ng tch cc ca t do ha thng mi i vi nn kinh t Vit Nam. Mt s li ch r rt ca t do ha thng mi bao gm u t trc tip nc ngoi c y mnh, khu vc xut khu hot ng mnh, gi c thp hn, cht lng hnh ha v dch v c ci thin. Cc hip nh thng mi song phng v cc cam kt WTO buc Vit Nam a ra nhng iu chnh quan trng trong h thng th ch v hnh chnh ca mnh. ng thi mt s nghin cu cn ch ra tc ng tch cc ca ASEAN do D n H tr Thng Mi a bin thc hin. Km theo l nn kinh t Vit Nam v mi trng ton cu nhng nm gn y thay i vi mc chng mt to ra nhng thch thc mi. V bn cht chnh xc ca mi quan h gia FDI v tng trng kinh t, iu kin tin quyt cho FDI thc y tng trng v vic xc nh cc c ch thng qua , tng trng c th t c( G. M. Agiomirgianakis, D. Asteriou K. Papathoma). Cng chnh v nhng tc ng mnh m ca ngun lc ny, nhm chng ti quyt nh chn ti nghin cu v cc nhn t tc ng n vic thu ht FDI ti Vit Nam nhm cung cp mt cch chnh xc hn v y hn v cc yu t nh hng n s thnh cng v tht bi ca cc nc chuyn tip trong vic thu ht FDI *** ngha thc tin ca ti: Bi nghin cu gip cho nhm sinh vin kinh t hiu r hn v cc yu t nh hng trc tip ti vic thu ht ngun vn FDI. T c hng gii quyt nhm gia tng hoc hn ch thu ht, phn b ngun vn ny mt cch hp l. II. Mc tiu nghin cu: Mc tiu nghin cu ca bi nghin cu ny l tm ra nhng nhn t nh hng v cc tc ng ca n n vic thu ht u t trc tip nc ngoi ti Vit Nam i tng phm vi nghin cu: Nhm nghin cu tin hnh nghin cu v cc nhn t nh hng n vic thu ht FDI ti Vit Nam trong khong thi gian t nm 2000-2008. III. Cu hi nghin cu: Tnh hnh thu ht u t trc tip nc ngoi hin nay ti Vit Nam nh th no? Cc nhn t no nh hng n vic thu ht FDI ti Vit Nam? Tc ng ca cc nhn t nh th no i vi vic thu ht FDI ti Vit Nam? Lm th no thu ht FDI? Lm sao thu ht v s dng FDI mt cch c hiu qu?

IV. TNG QUAN TI LIU V C S L THUYT ***C s l thuyt: 1. Cc l thuyt lin quan: M hnh nghin cu trc y ca Yuko.K v Nauro .F Campos (2003) chng ti c m hnh: FDIt= 0+1FDIt-1+ 2Yt+ 3 gt + 4LC+ 5EDU+ 6TEL+ 7INFAV + 8TDt+ 9 RESt + 10 EXLt+ 11Bureut+ 12TRDt+ 13 RLt+t

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Theo G. Agiomirgianakis, D. Asteriou v K. Papathoma (2006 ) l thuyt v bng chng thc nghim xem xt hai c ch ng mt vai tr quan trng trong vic thu ht FDI l quy m th trng v mc pht trin kinh t. Nn kinh t tng khai thc c quy m v cc yu t sn xut tiu chun chuyn mn, kt qu l gim thiu chi ph v tng trng th trng, do , ci thin tng pha cung (dch v v u vo) trong nn kinh t ch. Morrissey v Rai (1995) tuyn b rng kch thc ca th trng trong nc, cng nh trin vng tng trng ca nn kinh t nhn c nh gi cao xem xt khi nh u t nc ngoi di di sn xut nc s ti. Sau ny lp lun rng cc tha thun quc t v thng mi v u t cng nh hng n khi lng v hng ca dng vn FDI. Theo De Menil (1999) pht trin tt c s h tng th trng hin ti d kin s quyt nh h tr vn u t nc ngoi. Head & Ries (1996), Cheng & Kwan (1999) s dng cc yu t c s h tng, u nhim bi cc cng trnh xy dng ng (km/km2 din tch t ai), v b sung thu nhp khu vc nh cc bin tim nng thu ht FDI. Mt iu kin cung ng quan trng, c coi l c thc y lao ng v nh hng xut khu FDI l ngun nhn lc c v cht lng v tnh kh dng. Theo (De Mello, 1997) vic m rng tim nng nng sut ,tc l tng cht lng v tnh kh dng,ca mt cng ty hay mt quc gia v cho php cc hiu ng thc y tng trng FDI. Chnh sch ca Chnh ph cng c th l yu t quyt nh quan trng ca cc dng vn u t nc ngoi k t khi chnh ph xem xt cc dng FDI nh l phng tin chng li tnh trng tht nghip v nng cao tc tng trng quc gia. Chnh sch ca Chnh ph c th c nhiu hnh thc nh: thu quan, thu, tr cp, ch quy nh v chnh sch t nhn. (G. Agiomirgianakis, D. Asteriou v K. Papathoma, 2006 ). Cheng & Kwan (2000) kim tra bng chng thc nghim v nng lc ca chnh ph v th tc thy rng cc chnh ph l cht xc tc chnh cho chuyn dch c cu kinh t v thu ht FDI vo bn trong nc. Bhagwati (1978) lp lun rng FDI b thu ht bi cc quc gia thc hin xc tin xut khu hn so vi nhng ngi thc y chnh sch thay th nhp khu. Milner v L Ng Tun (1996) y quyn ch thng mi l t l xut khu bn hng v t l bn hng tp trung v bo co rng c hai bin c tm thy ng gp tch cc i vi FDI.

2.

Khung khi nim:

a) FDI Khi nim v FDI: C nhiu cch nh ngha khc nhau v khi nim FDI u t trc tip nc ngoi (ting Anh: Foreign Direct Investment, vit tt l FDI) l hnh thc u t di hn ca c nhn hay cng ty nc ny vo nc khc bng cch thit lp c s sn xut, kinh doanh. C nhn hay cng ty nc ngoi s nm quyn qun l c s sn xut kinh doanh ny. T chc Thng mi Th gii a ra nh ngha nh sau v FDI:

u t trc tip nc ngoi (FDI) xy ra khi mt nh u t t mt nc (nc ch u t) c c mt ti sn mt nc khc (nc thu ht u t) cng vi quyn qun l ti sn . Phng din qun l l th phn bit FDI vi cc cng c ti chnh khc. Trong phn ln trng hp, c nh u t ln ti sn m ngi qun l nc ngoi l cc c s kinh doanh. Trong nhng trng hp , nh u t thng hay oc gi l "cng ty m" v cc ti sn c gi l "cng ty con" hay "chi nhnh cng ty. Phn loi FDI: Nu phn chia theo mc ch u t th FDI c chia lm 4 loi chnh: u t mi - Greenfield Investment : nhm xy dng nh my mi hoc m rng nh my/dy chuyn hin c. Mua li v sp nhp - Merger & Acquisition : Cng ty u t mua lun ti sn ca doanh nghip nc ngoi. u t theo chiu ngang - Horizontal FDI: u t trong cng ngnh cng nghip u t theo chiu dc - Vertical FDI: u t vo cng ty chuyn cung cp u vo sn xut, hoc chuyn bn u ra cho sn phm Cn nu phn chia theo mc tiu: FDI nhm tm kim ngun lc - Resource-seeking: u t nhm t c dy chuyn sn xut v cc ngun lc khc nh lao ng r hoc ti nguyn thin nhin, m nhng ngun lc ny khng c c i u t. y l FDI thng u t vo cc nc ang pht trin nh ti nguyn du m Trung ng hay vng, kim cng Chu Phi, lao ng r ng Nam . Khi cc cng ty nc ngoi mun c c ngun ti nguyn khng c sn trong nc, chng hn nh ti nguyn thin nhin,nguyn vt liu,lao ng chi ph thp. c bit l trong lnh vc sn xut, khi cc cng ty a quc gia u t trc tip xut khu, cn nhc cc yu t chi ph tr nn quan trng., ngc li vi FDI theo chiu ngang, nh hng FDI theo chiu dc hoc xut cng FDI lin quan n vic di di cc b phn dy chuyn sn xut my ca nc s ti. ngun lao ng chi ph thp sn c l mt yu t quyt nh n nh hng xut khu FDI. ng nhin, c vn u t nc ngoi trong lnh vc ti nguyn nh du v kh t nhin thu ht cc vn di do. cc cng ty u t nc ngoi u t vn trc tip nc ngoi vo nc giu ti nguyn , ti sn m ngun ti nguyn khng c sn trong nc h. Ti nguyn c th l ngun ti nguyn thin nhin ,nguyn vt liu, hoc cc yu t u vo nh lao ng vi chi ph thp. c bit l trong lnh vc sn xut , khi cc cng ty a quc gia u t trc tip xut khu , yu t cn nhc chi ph tr nn quan trng. Ngc li FDI u t theo chiu ngang , theo chiu dc hoc theo nh hng xut khu FDI lin quan n vic di di cc b phn ca dy chuyn sn xut cho nc s ti. Ngun lao ng sn c vi chi ph thp l mt nguyn t quyt nh cho FDI nh hng xut khu . Hn na , u t trc tip nc ngoi trong lnh vc ti nguyn nh du m v kh t nhin c thu ht vo nhng nc c ngun ti thin nhin phong ph. FDI tm kim th trng - Market-seeking: u t nhm thm nhp th trng mi hoc duy tr th trng hin c. y l loi FDI cn c gi l FDI u t theo chiu ngang v n lin quan n vic nhn rng cc c s sn xut trong nc c u t. Thu xut nhp khu FDI l mt bin th ca th trng tm kim FDI . FDI u t theo chiu ngang l

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phc v tt hn cho th trng ni a sn xut ti a phng ,cc cng c iu chnh chnh ca nn kinh t ti nc c u t l quy m th trng v tng trng th trng. Thu xut nhp khu v chi ph vn ti cng l tr ngi cho vic khuyn khch u t FDI ti th trng a phng. Tm kim hiu qu - Effficiency-seeking: u t nhm tng cng hiu qu bng vic tn dng li th ca tnh kinh t theo quy m hay phm vi, hoc c hai. u t nc ngoi c cho l hiu qu khi cng ty c th t c t qun tr ph bin ca hot ng a l phn tn trong s hin din ca nn kinh t theo quy m v phm vi. Bevan v Estrin (2000) tm thy bng chng rng y l trng hp cho ln sng u tin gia nhp EU. Thnh vin tim nng ca Lin minh chu u vi vic thnh lp mng li khu vc ca cng ty dng nh thu ht ngun vn FDI hiu qu sau bc u cng b s tin b ca EU. C mt im l cc quc gia m c mt th trng rng ln , chi ph lao ng thp ,ngun ti nguyn thin nhin phong ph , v gn cc th trng phng Ty ln s thu ht mt lng ln v thu ht FDI. FDI do s i sang cc nc c iu kin thun li ban u. Da trn mt cuc kho st ca cc cng ty sn xut phng Ty, Lankes v Venables (1996) tm thy rng mc ch chnh ca vn u t nc ngoi trong nn kinh t chuyn i trc nm 1995 khc nhau ng k gia cc quc gia. H nhn thy rng c mt s thay i ng ch t khu vc d n phc v th trng ni a cho nhng ngi phc v th trng xut khu. FDI nh hng xut khu sau c d kin s tng khi vi vic hi nhp th trng EU tin trin. Nu vy, chng ti mong i cc yu t chi ph tr nn quan trng hn. Mt yu t quan trng khc gii thch s phn b a l ca FDI l Tnh kinh t nh lin kt. Hin nay, Tnh kinh t nh lin kt, nh u t mi bt chc quyt nh u t c thc hin trc bi cc nh u t khc trong vic la chn v tr. Bn cnh vic lm vic chung vi cc cng ty khc, h c hng li t hiu ng lan ta tch cc t cc nh u t khc c t ra. Cc ngun ti nguyn thng thng ca yu t tch cc bn ngoi l kin thc, lao ng chuyn ngnh, v u vo trung gian. Cc bng chng thc nghim v cc nn kinh t tch t d . hin c dn chng l tp trung vo vn u t nc ngoi M hoc FDI ca Hoa K trn tu . Mt chuyn ca Wheeler v Mody (1992) ni tch t kinh t (v quy m th trng) M quyt nh a im ca cc nh u t . Barrell v Pain (1999) tm thy kt qu tng t v u t ca M chu u. Head, Ries, v Swenson (1995) tm thy Tnh kinh t nh lin kt ca cp ngnh cng nghip ng mt vai tr quan trng trong vic la chn v tr ca FDI sn xut Nht Bn M . Mt nghin cu gn y ca Chen v Kwang (2000) bo co mt hiu ng tng kt khi Trung Quc. Ngun lc sn c da trn l thuyt cho thy rng s khc bit vn c trong ngun ti nguyn v cc iu kin thun li ban u trong s cc nc gii thch cc m hnh a l hng ni FDI. Cch duy nht ca nc ch nh c th nh hng n m hnh ny l thay i nn kinh t c bn. Mt khc , mt cu chuyn ca Tnh kinh t nh lin kt cho thy rng mt khi nc thu ht hng lot u tin ca cc nh u t , qu trnh s c t cng c m khng cn vi nhng thay i trong cc chnh sch . Trong trng hp ny, nu c bt k tc dng tch t , chng ti mong i cc c phiu trong qu kh ca FDI s l mt yu t d bo tt v FDI hin ti ngay c sau khi kim sot cc yu t c in ca li th so snh . Vi s pht trin ca ti liu c lin quan t chc v kt qu kinh t lp lun, cc t chc kinh t tt l cng c tng trng kinh t thng qua cao hn ,u t, trnh hc vn cao hn , v t l t vong thp hn ( Mauro, nm 1995 : La Porta et al , 7

1998,1999 ). Chng ti tin rng cc t chc tt cng c th ng mt vai tr trung gian quan trng trong thu ht FDI . V vy, cu hi chnh chng ti mun cp trong bo co ny l t chc v hiu qu lin kt lin quan n cc yu t khc nc s ti quan trng nh th no? Tm kim ti sn chin lc (Strategic-Asset-Seeking): u t nhm ngn chn vic b mt ngun lc vo tay i th cnh tranh. V d, cc cng ty sn xut v khai thc du m c th khng cn tr lng du thi im hin ti, nhng vn phi tm cch bo v n khng ri vo tay i th cnh tranh. Cc nhn t thu ht mi loi FDI cho thy rng cc nc c th trng rng ln, lao ng chi ph thp, ngun ti nguyn thin nhin phong ph, v gn th trng phng ty s thu ht s lng ln FDI hn. FDI do s n cc nc c iu kin thun li ban u. Tuy nhin nghin cu cho thy rng cc yu t khc cng quan trng d trn s kho kho st cc cng ty sn xut phng ty, Lankes v venables (1996) cho thy rng mc ch chnh ca vn u t nc ngoi trong nn kinh t chuyn i trc 1995a dng ng k. H quan st c mt s thay i ng ch t cc d n phc v th trng a phng phc v th trng xut khu. thoe nh hng xut khu FDI c d kin tng khi hi nhp th trng vi cc tin b EU.mt bin quan trng khc gii thch s phn b theo a l ca FDI l mt mn hnh ca bn b theo thi gian.so vi cc hnh thc vn khc nh danh mc u tu, chui thi gian ca FDI ni chung l n nh hn do bn cht chi ph cao ca FDI.FDI thng km theo u t vt l l khng th o ngc trong ngn hn. Do , mt s lng ln Fdi trong cc nc hm nay ng mt s lng ln FDI ngy mai. Ngoi ra u t trc tip nc ngoi l lin tc thoe thi gian do s hin din ca tnh kinh t nh lin kt.nu c tnh kinh t nh lin kt trong hin nay,cc nh u t mi bt chc cc quyt nh u t trc y ca cc nh u t khc trong vic la chn u t vo u. Bng cch nh v bn cnh cc cng ty khc, h c hng li t cc hiu ng lan ta tch cc t cc nh u t sn xut trong nc s ti.cc ngun lc ph bin ca cc yu t bn ngoi bao gm kin thc, lao ng chuyn ngnh, v trung gian u vo. b) Tnh kinh t nh lin kt (Agglomeration Economies) Tnh kinh t nh lin kt; nhng li th kinh t bt ngun t vic ct gim chi ph bng cch sn xut hng lot, nhn lc di do, vi k nng v kin thc chuyn mn nh lin kt gia cc hng, cng ty vi nhau C rt nhiu bng chng v gi tr ca tnh kinh t nh lin kt , mc d nghin cu hin ti tp trung vo vn u t nc ngoi ti hoa k hoc FDI ca hoa k.mt tc phm chuyn ca Wheeler v Mody (1992) khin cho a trng hp mnh hn cho vic lin kt (v quy m th trng) trong U.S. Barrel v Pain (1999) tm thy nhng kt qu tng t ti U.S khi u t vo chu u. Head, Ries, v Swenson (1995) tm thy cc ngnh cng nghip c tnh kinh t nh lin kt ng mt vai tr quan trng trong vic la chn v tr ca FDI sn xut ti nht bn ca hoa k. mt tc phm gn y ca Cheng v Kwang (2000) bo co mt hiu ng tng t ca lin kt trung Quc. c) Tng trng ni sinh(Endogenous Growth) L tng trng kinh t nh vo s kt hp cc nhn t bn trong mt nn kinh t ca mt khu vc hay mt quc gia, bao gm yu t cnh tranh, cht lng ngun nhn lc v cng ngh, v mi 8

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trng th ch.v bn cht chnh xc ca mi quan h gia FDI v tng trng kinh t, iu kin tin quyt cho FDI thc y tng trng v vic xc nh cc c ch thng qua , tng trng c th t c.Mt trong cc phng php tip cn u tin l L thuyt tng trng tn c in. Solow (1956) c gng th hin mt m hnh tng trng vo mt chc nng sn xut n gin v khm ph bin "cha kha" c th cung cp tc tng trng n nh. Trong cc m hnh ca mnh, bt cc bin xc nh FDI trong tc tng trng. Mt khc, trong l thuyt tng trng ni sinh, dng FDI c th ng gp trc tip hoc gin tip vo s tng trng kinh t ca mt nn kinh t. Wang (1990) phn bin cc tc ng ca hot ng FDI vo hiu ng nh quc gia tch cc trc tip, bng cch y mnh sn xut v chuyn giao kin thc cho cc nh cung cp a phng v tc ng gin tip bng cch nng cao cht lng ca lc lng lao ng ca h. FDI c coi l ngun chnh ca tng trng kinh t cho cc nc km pht trin (Balasubramanyam et al, 1996) trong khi tng tng i cng c quan st thy trong EU. Tht vy, dng vn FDI gp phn vo s tng trng kinh t EU k t khi chi nhnh nc ngoi trin lm tng i xu hng ln hn thc hin cc chi ph R & D v nng sut tng i cao hn trong khi thc hin u t Chu u hn so vi th trngtrong nc ca h (Barrel et al.,1997). Hn na, Barrel et al. (1997), bng cch s dng mt m hnh ca lao ng lm tng tin b k thut, c tnh cho giai on 1972-1995, khong 30% s tng trng ca nng sut sn xut FDI ca Anh l do cc dng vn FDI. Blomstrom v Kokko (1996) lp lun rng c nhng bng chng cho thy cc tc dng tng cng vn u t nc ngoi ca nc s ti v vic lm v t l u ra v mt tim nng ng k hiu ng lan ta i vi cc cng ty a phng cc vng ch nh. Girma v Wakelin (2002) kim tra xem hiu ng lan ta nng sut t hot ng FDI xy ra trong nn kinh t ca Vng quc Anh, c tm thy ngoi tc lan truyn tch cc t cc cng ty a quc gia xy ra vi cc doanh nghip trong nc trong cng lnh vc v khu vc nh cc chi nhnh nc ngoi. Hn na, nhng pht hin ca h cho thy rng cc cng ty trong nc c th t c nhiu hn t nhng hiu ng lan ta nu khong cch cng ngh m h c c t cc cng ty nc ngoi l thp. Cc nghin cu khc cng c tm thy rng FDI nh hng n nc nhn tng trng kinh t thng qua cc u vo mi (Feenstra & Markusen, 1994), thng qua cng ngh mi v ngoi tc lan truyn sau cho cc doanh nghip trong nc (Krugman, 1979) v thng qua chuyn giao kin thc (de Mello v Sinclair, 1995). S ra i ca l thuyt tng trng ni sinh (Romer, 1990, Barro Sala-i-Martin, nm 1995) cho php nghin cu vo cc knh m qua , FDI c th c d kin s thc y tng trng trong di hn. minh ha cc thit lp c bn ca cc yu t quyt nh kim sot cc ng lc cho u t xuyn bin gii, Mundell gii thch c vn u t nc ngoi v ngun lc tng i ca hai yu t sn xut v chi ph tng i ca hai yu t sn xut. Mundell (1957) kt lun rng trong s hin din ca cc ro cn i vi thng mi v di c, cng nh vi s tn ti ca s khc bit ln gia cc nc giu vn v vn ngho, khuyn khch i vi cc dng vn ln. S phn b a l ca cc khon u t mi, tuy nhin, cho rng FDI khng ch nhm mc tiu GDP thp m cn c cc nc c mc lng thp. Theo IMF, trong ni b EU FDI chy chim 4,5% GDP ca EU. f) Th ch kinh t v th ch kinh t Vit Nam: Ta c th nh ngha khi nim th ch kinh t chnh l cc lut l, khun kh trong cc ch th kinh t tng tc vi nhau v vi cc ch th khc.Theo tc gi H Huy Thnh (2006, trang 25), Th ch kinh t th trng l th ch ca lnh vc hot ng kinh t din ra trong h thng th 9

trng. T , nh ngha c th ca th ch kinh t th trng l khung kh, trt t xc nh quan h gia cc ch th kinh t, x hi thch ng vi cc nguyn l ca h kinh t th trng trong mi hot ng kinh t (trang 90). c trng th ch kinh t Vit Nam: Tc gi H Huy Thnh (2006) c nu tng qut cc c trng ca th ch kinh t th trng nh hng XHCN Vit Nam hin nay bao gm: V tr c th ca kinh t th trng trong cng cuc xy dng ch ngha x hi; mc tiu pht trin ca nn kinh t; lc lng sn xut ca nn kinh t th trng nh hng x hi ch ngha; c cu ch th ca nn kinh t; Vai tr ch o ca kinh t nh nc trong nn kinh t; thc y tng trng kinh t ng thi vi m bo cng bng; Phn phi theo hiu qu kinh doanh v nng sut lao ng l chnh, cng tn ti vi phn phi thu nhp theo vn, ti sn, tr tu v phc li x hi; vai tr ca nh nc trong nn kinh t th trng nh hng x hi ch ngha. g) Danh sch bin tc ng: Theo nhm nghin cu, c 13 nhn t chnh nh hng trc tip n ngun vn FDI ti Vit Nam v c chia thnh 3 nhm chnh: kinh t, ti nguyn v c s h tng v chnh sch. Nhm cc yu t v kinh t: FDI stock per capita: (nh gii thiu trn) Lagged FDI: bin tr FDI 1 nm so vi bin FDI stock per capita(d tr FDI trn u ngi). Inflation ( Lm pht) : Annual average of current inflation rate (%):Nn kinh t c lm pht khi gi c sn phm v dch v gia tng gn nh ng lot v lin tc [Ngun :Kinh t v m ,Trn Vn Hng et al]. Mc lm pht c o lng bng t l lm pht, l t l phn trm tng ca mc gi hoc ch s gi. Tnh ch s lm pht v ch s gi: T l lm pht = Ch s gi ca nm hin hnh =

x 100 x100

Tc ng ca Lm pht ti Thu ht FDI: Lm pht lm to ra nhng thay i khng c d kin ca gi tr tin t. iu khin khng c s tng ng gia s tin c tr v nhn trong thc t. Ngha l ng tin u t vo th trng ni a c nguy c mt gi. Kem theo l lm pht khng kim sot gy tnh trng kinh t khng n nh: tng trng kinh t chm, suy thoi kinh t,tht nghip Mi qua h gia tht nghip v sn lng c th hin qua nh lut Okun: Trong iu kin cc yu t khc khng i, khi t l tht nghip tng 1% so vi t l tht nghip t nhin th sn lng gim 2,5% so vi sn lng ton dng. iu ny gy bt li cho vic u t FDI v nu u t vo rt mo him, nguy c gp ri ro cao. Market size (Quy m th trng): iu ny c hiu l ch s o lng qui m ca nn kinh t l tng gi tr GDP .nh hng n FDI: Theo UNCTAD, qui m th trng l c s quan trng trong vic thu ht u t ti tt c cc quc gia v cc nn kinh t. Nhiu

10

PHNG PHP NGHIN CU KINH T

nghin cu cho thy FDI l hm s ph thuc vo qui m th trng ca nc mi gi u t. Cc nghin cu khc cng ch ra rng, mc tng trng GDP cng l tn hiu tt cho vic thu ht FDI. Bn cnh , nhiu nh u t vi chin lc i tt n u cng s mnh dn u t vo nhng ni c nhiu k vng tng trng nhanh trong tng lai v c cc c hi m rng ra cc th trng ln cn. Khi la chn a im u t trong mt nc, cc nh u t nc ngoi cng nhm n nhng vng tp trung ng dn c th trng tim nng ca h. Tng tin lng danh ngha i din cho chi ph lao ng.Chi ph v lao ng thng c xem l nhn t quan trng nht khi ra quyt nh u t. Nhiu nghin cu cho thy, i vi cc nc ang pht trin, li th chi ph lao ng thp l c hi thu ht u t trc tip ca nc ngoi trong cc thp k qua. Khi gi nhn cng tng ln, u t nc ngoi c khuynh hng gim r rch. Trade dependence: Thng mi da trn yu t ngun lc lp lun rng FDI c rt ra cho cc nc c lng thp hn v ngun ti nguyn thin nhin phong ph hn. L thuyt thng mi mi y cho thy rng nn kinh t quy m l mt ng lc thc y FDI v hiu ng lin kt thng xuyn ng mt vai tr rt quan trng.Quyt nh u t ti cc th trng mi ni cng ang chu nh hng ca ri ro kinh t v chnh tr. Thc hin thnh cng ci cch kinh t ca chnh ph nc s ti l tn hiu tt cho cc nh u t, nh mt mi trng kinh t v m n nh n t ri ro u t.Mt ch s ca mt mi trng kinh t v m n nh l mt k lc ca s n nh gi c.Mt lch s ca lm pht thp v tn hiu hot ng ti kha thn trng i vi cam kt ca cc nh u t nh th no v ng tin cy ca chnh ph . o lng s n nh, chng ti s dng lm pht trung bnh hng nm (INFAV). Hu ht cc nc ang chuyn i lm pht cao sau khi t do ha gi c lc bt u ca qu trnh chuyn i. Nhng quc gia bt tay vo thc hin chng trnh bnh n sm thnh cng trong vic a lm pht trong tm kim sot nhanh chng. Tnh trung bnh, thp hn mc trung bnh t l lm pht nc s ti, thnh cng hn l chng trnh n nh v GDP tng trng nhanh hn tr li mc tch cc.

Nhm cc yu t ti nguyn v c s h tng Education (o to- Trnh lao ng): Bin ny th hin trnh lao ng ph thng ca quc gia . Thng thng ngun lao ng ph thng lun c p ng y v c th tha mn yu cu ca cc cng ty. Tuy vy, ch c th tm c cc nh qun l gii,cng nh cn b k thut c trnh v kinh nghim cc thnh ph ln. ng c, thi lm vic ca ngi lao ng cng l yu t quan trng trong vic xem xt, la chn a im u t. Natural resources (Ti nguyn thin nhin) : S di do v nguyn vt liu vi gi r cng l nhn t tch cc thc y thu ht u t nc ngoi. Trong trng hp ca Malaysia, ngun ti nguyn thin nhin ca nc ny c sc ht FDI mnh m nht. Cc nh u t nc ngoi x n nc ny l nhm n cc ngun ti nguyn di do v du m, kh t, cao su, g... c bit ti cc quc gia ng Nam (ASEAN). Thc t cho thy, trc khi c s xut hin ca Trung Quc trn lnh vc thu ht u t nc ngoi, FDI ch tp trung vo mt s quc gia c th trng rng ln v ngun ti nguyn thin nhin di do. Ch c 5 quc gia l Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia Mexico v Singapore thu ht hn 50% FDI ca ton th gii trong giai on 1973-1984. 11

Telephone lines: ngha l s u s in thoi trn mi mt nghn ngi. i din cho nh hng ca yu t c s h tng, ta xem xt v chn ra bin. Nhn chung, cht lng ca c s h tng k thut v trnh cng nghip ha c nh hng rt quan trng n dng vn u t nc ngoi vo mt nc hoc mt a phng. Mt h thng c s h tng k thut hon chnh (bao gm c h thng ng b, ng st, ng hng khng, mng li cung cp in, nc, bu chnh vin thng v cc dch v tin ch khc), l iu mong mun i vi mi nh u t nc ngoi. Ni n c s h tng k thut khng ch ni n ng s, cu cng, kho tng, bn bi... m cn phi k n cc dch v h tr khc nh h thng ngn hng, cc cng ty kim ton, t vn... Thiu s h tr cn thit ca cc hot ng ny, mi trng u t cng s b nh hng nghim trng. Ngoi ra, hiu qu hot ng ca cc c s cng nghip a phng, s c mt ca cc ngnh cng nghip h tr, s tn ti cc i tc tin cy cc cng ty nc ngoi c th lin doanh lin kt cng l nhng yu cu rt quan trng cn phi c xem xt n. Phm vi ca cc bin ny l nh gi vai tr ca cht lng v mt c s h tng. Cc bin ny cng c th bo hiu mc pht trin v phn b dn c ca nc ch nh. V nguyn tc, mt mng li thc y thng mi trong nc v gip nh u t nc ngoi t c quyn truy cp vo cc th trng ring bit v khc nhau vi chi ph thp nht.

Nhm c ch chnh sch: Dng vn u t nc ngoi vo cc nc ang pht trin khng ch c quyt nh bi cc yu t v kinh t, m cn chu s chi phi ca cc yu t chnh tr. S n nh ca nn kinh t v m, kt hp vi cc n nh v chnh tr c xem l rt quan trng. Mt s nghin cu gn y cho thy mi quan h rt cht ch gia n nh chnh tr vi vic thu ht u t nc ngoi. Chnh sch ci m v nht qun ca chnh ph cng ng mt vai tr rt quan trng. Chnh sch ca Chnh ph cng c th l yu t quyt nh quan trng ca cc dng vn u t nc ngoi khi chnh ph xem cc ngun vn FDI nh l phng tin chng li tnh trng tht nghip v nng cao tc tng trng quc gia. Chnh sch ca Chnh ph c th c nhiu hnh thc nh: thu quan, thu, tr cp, ch quy nh v chnh sch t nhn. V d, mt s gia tng tng i trong thu quan hoc thu sut nc s ti c d kin s tng chi ph u t, dn n loi b t l li nhun.(G.Agiomirgianakis, D. Asterious & K. Papathoma, 2006). Th ch nc s ti cng nh hng n quyt nh u t, bi v h trc tip nh hng n iu kin hot ng kinh doanh. Chi ph u t bao gm khng ch kinh t chi ph u t, m cn chi ph kinh t th trng, chng hn nh hi l v thi gian b mt trong giao dch vi chnh quyn a phng. nh gi iu kin hot ng kinh doanh ca cc nc s ti cho cc nh u t, chng ti s dng hai bin th ch, quy nh ca php lut (Rule of law) v cht lng ca quan liu (Bureucracy). Cc quy tc ca bin php lut phn nh sc mnh v tnh cng bngh thng php lut v nghi thc ph bin ca php lut. Mt im s cao hn trong cc quy nh ca php lut ng cc th ch php l tt hn. Chng ti hy vng rng cc quc gia c c s h tng php l tt hn s c th thu ht FDI nhiu hn. V d cc nh u t nc ngoi s min cng cam kt ngun lc cho quc gia nu h nhn thc c s ngho nn trong hp ng v php lut .nguy c b tc quyn s hu l mt v d. mt kha cnh khc ca th ch m nhng vn FDI l hiu qa v tinh minh bch ca th tc hnh chnh. Nu cc nh u t nc ngoi on rng cc quy nh thi hnh khng thng nht v gy cn tr hot ng kinh doanh ca h, h t c kh nng 12

PHNG PHP NGHIN CU KINH T

u t vo nhng nc ny. V vy cu hi chnh ca chng ti yu cu trong bi ny l th ch v lin kt hiu qu nh hng n cc yu t khc nc s ti quan trng nh th no? External liberalization: T do ha thng mi c tc ng tch cc to ln i vi nn kinh t vitNam.Mt s li ch r rt ca t do ha thng mi bao gm u t trc tip nc ngoi c y mnh, gi c thp hn, cht lng hng ha v dch v c ci thin. Cc hip nh thng mi song phng v cam kt WTO buc Vit Nam a ra nhng iu chnh quan trng trong h thng th ch v hnh chnh ca mnh. V d, trong khun kh cam kt WTO, Vit Nam cng b chnh thc tt c cc lut, quy nh, th tc hnh chnh c p dng chung trc khi a vo thccj thi. Ngoi ra, vn bn d tho cc d n lut phi c ng ti trn trang mng ca c quan chnh ph t nht 60 ngy trc khi thng qua, cho cc c quan, t chc v c nhn c th ng gp kin.C l thay i cn bn nht trong nhng nm u tin ca ci cch l nhng thay i chnh sch nhm nng cao hiu qu ca khu vc doanh nghip, thc y sn lng nng nghip, m ca nn kinh t cho ngoi thng v u t nc ngoi, v ci cch chnh ph. Mt s thay i chnh sch ln trong nhng lnh vc ny bao gm (ADB 2006; IMF 1996) t do gi c v thng mi: t do hu ht gi c mt s mt hng nht nh i vi cc khch hng chnh thc ca nh nc, bao gm cc mt hng xi- mng, thp v in, nhn chung c quy nh mc gn vi mc gi th trng t do; h thp t gi hi oi chnh thc cho st vi t gi th trng t do; xa b tr cp xut khu; cho php c gi thu nhp bng ngoi t; t do ha thng mi, c bit l cho cc doanh nghip sn xut c trc tip mua bn vi nc ngoi, qua g b kim sot cht ch mt cch quan liu i vi cc cng ty thng mi; hnh thnh cc khu ch xut v khu cng nghip; v bi b cc trm hi quan ni a (ADB2006; IMF 1996). Restriction on FDI: Bn cnh nhng thnh cng to ln rt ng trn trng, Vit Nam cng ang i din vi mt s thch thc, kh khn v yu km, cng nh t cm nhn su sc hn bao gi ht nhng tc ng hai mt ca FDI trc yu cu pht trin bn vng v ti cu trc nn kinh t trong giai on pht trin mi, m ni bt l: - B sung ngun vn u t x hi, nhng cn nhiu hn ch v cht lng tng trng: Vn FDI l ngun b sung vn quan trng trong tng ngun vn, nht l trong giai on khi ng nn kinh t. Nhng nm gn y, vn FDI thc hin Vit Nam t mc trn 10 t USD (vi s vn bn ngoi chuyn vo trn 8 t$) l con s ln, chim khong tng vn u t c nc v to ra n 45% gi tr sn lng sn phm cng nghip. Tuy nhin, cc ngun vn ny thng u mi c dnh cho u t cc d n thuc loi gia cng, t l gi tr gia tng ca khu vc FDI trong cng nghip li ch t 40% MVA, cha to nn hiu qu vt tri tng ng, trong khi Khu vc kinh t Nh nc to ra 18,5% gi tr sn lng cng nghip (gi thc t), nhng to ra ti 28% gi tr gia tng ngnh cng nghip. l do nhiu DNNN nm cc lnh vc cng nghip quan trng v c hiu qu kh cao nh du kh, in, than, xi mng. - M rng xut khu, nhng cng lm tng dng nhp siu : Cc doanh nghip FDI to nn gi tr xut khu ln (k hay khng k du kh), chim trn di 50% gi tr xut khu c nc. Tuy nhin, nu xt k, cc doanh nghip FDI mi to ra c nhiu bn thnh phm, nh lp rp my tnh, trong mng li sn xut ton cu. ng thi, cc 13

doanh nghip FDI ngy cng hng vo khai thc th trng gn 100 triu dn c dung lng ang ngy cng m rng ca Vit Nam. Chnh v vy, nhiu doanh nghip FDI cng gp phn vo vic tng nhp siu, do c ch gia cng cn ln, t l ni a ha nh vi cng nghip t cn thp, m cuc khng hong kinh t-ti chnh nhng nm 2008 - nay ang cho thy r iu . To thm cng n vic lm, nhng cng lm mt i nhiu vic lm truyn thng v cha coi trng o to ngi lao ng : Trong nhiu nm qua, cc doanh nghip FDI thu ht khong 2 triu lao ng lm vic trc tip v hng triu lao ng trong cc khu gin tip khc. Tuy nhin, bn cnh hot ng ca cc d n c FDI cng lm mt i nhiu vic lm truyn thng ca dn c vng b thu hi t v to thm p lc x hi cho nhiu a phng c lin quan; c bit, thu ht lao ng ca cc doanh nghip FDI cn thin v khai thc ngun lao ng c gi nhn cng r, t o to, thm ch dng c ch th vic lin tc thay lao ng. Nhiu doanh nghip c t l lao ng n rt cao, nhng gi nhn cng thp v c th gy cc bnh ngh nghip (nh lch mt khi chuyn trch kim tra cht lng lp in t t ng ca nh my sn xut my tnh v linh kin in t). Khng t doanh nghip FDI gy nhim mi trng t nhin v khai thc lng ph ti nguyn thin nhin: Trong qu trnh kinh doanh Vit Nam, nhiu doanh nghip FDI ch trng khai thc nhiu ti nguyn t nhin (nht l ti nguyn khng ti to nh khai thc m khong sn), gy tn ph mi trng t nhin. Bi hc ca doanh nghip Vedan cng ch l mt v d mi nht, m h qu cha nhn thy hi kt. l cha k nhim kh, nhim ting n, nhim bi, v.v... thm ch ph hoi a dng sinh hc cng cn c qun l cht ch. Tng ng gp ti chnh quc gia, nhng cn nhiu hnh vi tiu cc, trn trnh ngha v ti chnh v to cnh tranh khng lnh mnh : Cc doanh nghip FDI ng gp ngun vn khng nh cho ngn sch Nh nc xt v tng th. Tuy nhin, thc t cho thy c ti 50% doanh nghip c FDI lin tc khai kinh doanh b l, v phn ln cc lin doanh chuyn sang hnh thc u t 100% vn nc ngoi l hin tng khng bnh thng, cho thy c hin tng lm dng chnh sch u i v c ch chuyn gi, gy thit hi cho NSNN v tnh trng kinh doanh thiu minh bch, cnh tranh khng lnh mnh gia cc doanh nghip. Tnh trng u c t, bn d n kh ph bin khin cng tc qun l ti nguyn v t ai thm kh khn, thm ch c d n vn ti 4,1 t USD, nhng vn t c (vn php nh hay vn iu l) ca ch d n ch 100 triu USD. Nhiu d n o, chm trin khai b cc a phng rt giy php u t cng l hin tng rt ng lo ngi. Tng p lc cnh tranh , nhng cha c nhiu hot ng chuyn giao cng ngh v kinh nghim qun l: Chp nhn cnh tranh trn th trng sn nh trong khi thu ht vn FDI, nhiu nh hoch nh chnh sch, nhiu ngnh v a phng hy vng, cng vi tng ngun vn, m mang th trng, cc doanh nghip FDI s tin hnh chuyn giao cng ngh v k nng qun l cho ngi Vit Nam. Tuy nhin thnh qu trong lnh vc ny rt khim tn. Do cch thc sn xut theo cng on trong mng li ton cu, m nh u t cn gi phn ln b quyt cng ngh, nn vic chuyn giao cng ngh rt t v vic truyn b kinh nghim qu l cng gn nh khng c g. y l vn i hi n lc ca c cc nh khoa hc v qun l Vit Nam phi vn ln hc hi trong cng vic, tng bc vn ln. Kinh nghim trong xy dng cc cng trnh ln, khai

14

PHNG PHP NGHIN CU KINH T

thc du kh, in, than,... ng m rng, trong khi cc kinh nghim trong gia cng hng ha cn rt khim tn. Nguyn nhn ca tnh trng trn c nhiu, trong phi k n tnh trng phn cp n chia ct ct c v trnh qun l, thm nh d n cha tng xng, sng lc km cc d n, nn thu ht cc d n cha c chun b k... Ngoi ra, cng nghip ph tr trong nc km pht trin, gi tr gia tng ca FDI km l nguyn nhn ch yu khin cho cc doanh nghip FDI lin tc nhp siu (nu b du th ra khi kim ngch xut khu ca khi ny), gp phn lm trm trng thm tnh trng thm ht cn cn thng mi kinh nin ca Vit Nam. Cn nhn mnh rng, tt c nhng tc ng 2 mt trn y ca FDI cn c nhn thc y , ghi nhn, theo di c th c nhng gii php x l kp thi v hiu qu, bo m li ch ca Nh nc v ca cc nh u t FDI chn chnh, lm n ng n, bo m cnh tranh lnh mnh gia cc doanh nghip, tip tc ci thin mnh m mi trng u t kinh doanh. Trong thi gian ti, trn c s tng cng nng lc ni sinh ca nn kinh t quc gia, thc y pht trin cng nghip ph tr trong nc, cn thc y v tn dng c vic hp thu chuyn giao cng ngh v k nng qun l (c trc tip v gin tip), thc y m mang th trng c trong v ngoi nc, to ra s lan ta mnh v tch cc cu khu vc FDI trong cc lnh vc lao ng (o to ngun nhn lc), chuyn giao cng ngh, m rng th trng, bo v mi trng. c bit, cn tng cng qun l Nh nc, nht l vai tr bo m li ch quc gia ca cc cp ngnh Trung ng, khc phc tnh trng chia ct, thiu phi hp v s ng b trong qun l, cc c quan qun l Nh nc trn cc lnh vc kinh t, x hi, mi trng nng cao cht lng khu vc FDI theo hng pht trin bn vng. - Vic tr thnh cc nh cung ng ti ch cho cc doanh nghip nc ngoi s gip cc doanh nghip t nhn kt ni c vo mng li cung ng ton cu, ng thi, c c hi c lm vic vi nhng tiu chun cht lng v mi trng kinh doanh quc t. ng thi, s tn ti ca mt mng li dy c cc nh cung ng a phng cng l mt nhn t thc y thu ht u t nc ngoi vo Vit Nam. Rule of law: Chnh sch ca Chnh ph cng c th l yu t quyt nh quan trng ca cc dng vn u t nc ngoi k t khi chnh ph xem xt cc dng FDI nh l phng tin chng li tnh trng tht nghip v nng cao tc tng trng quc gia. Chnh sch ca Chnh ph c th c nhiu hnh thc nh: thu quan, thu, tr cp, ch quy nh v chnh sch t nhn. V d, mt s gia tng tng i trong thu quan hoc thu sut nc s ti c d kin s tng chi ph u t, dn n loi b t l li nhun. Cheng & Kwan (2000) kim tra bng chng thc nghim v nng lc ca chnh ph v th tc thy rng cc chnh ph l cht xc tc chnh cho chuyn dch c cu kinh t v thu ht FDI vo bn trong nc. Mt yu t quyt nh c th thu ht ngun FDI l mc t do ca ch thng mi.Mc d c tn ti nhng kh khn r rng trong vic o lng cc yu t trn, mt mi quan h tch cc ni chung gia mt ch thng mi t do v u t trc tip nc ngoi d kin. Trong khi EU, thnh cng ca Anh trong vic thu ht FDI, c thit lp trong ba yu t chnh: a) s t do ha quy nh ch s hu nc ngoi, b) cc chng trnh t nhn ha trong truyn thng hot ng nh nc (vin thng, ng st, in, nc), c) cc bi b quy nh ti chnh , "Big Bang" vo nm 1986, (Raines cng s, 1999). Bhagwati 15

(1978) lp lun rng FDI b thu ht bi cc quc gia thc hin xc tin xut khu hn so vi nhng ngi thc y chnh sch thay th nhp khu Bureucracy: Cc yu t chnh tr mi c lm ni ln do xu hng kinh t ton cu nh hi nhp kinh t gia cc lien minh quc gia v t do ho thng mi trn ton th gii. Nhng nghin cu gn y ,5 bo co l bng chng cho thy Chng trnh th trng chung (SMP) trong s cc nc EU thc y mc t l u t trong cc nc thnh vin. De Menil (1998) ni rng EU lin quan n vic gia tng dng chy ca thng tin v vn, ln lt tng dng vn FDI.Pain & Lansbury (1997) bo co kt qu khng r rng lin quan n ci cch th trng lao ng Anh, mc d gim tng chi ph lao ng, h khng thnh cng v thc y vic thu ht vn u t nc ngoi d kin. C th hn Anh km trong vic thu ht vn u t nc ngoi t cc lnh vc m s ci tin ang c pht trin nhanh chng nht.

3. Gi thuyt nghin cu: Khi nghin cu vic cc nhn t nh hng ti vic thu ht u t nc ngoi trong nhng nm qua chng ti a ra nhng gi thuyt ca m hnh nh sau: H1: Bin tr FDI (FDIt-1) ca nm t-1 nh hng ti ch s thu ht u t nc ngoi FDI ca nm th t. H2: Quy m ca th trng c tnh bng GDP bnh qun u (Yt) ngi nh hng ti ch s thu ht u t nc ngoi FDI. H3: T l tng trng kinh t (gt) ca quc qua qua giai on nghin cu nh hng ti ch s thu ht u t nc ngoi FDI (FDIt) H4: Gi vn lao ng (LC) o bng tin lng danh ngha trn nm nh hng ti ch s thu ht u t nc ngoi FDI (FDIt)

H5: Cht lng gio dc (EDU) nh hng ch s thu ht u t nc ngoi FDI (FDIt) . H6: Yu t C s h tng (CSHT) nh hng ti ch s thu ht u t nc ngoi FDI (FDIt) H7: Ch s lm pht (INF) nh hng ti ch s thu ht u t nc ngoi FDI (FDIt) H8: T l ph thuc thng mi (DT) nh hng ti ch s ch s thu ht u t nc ngoi FDI (FDIt).

4. M hnh nghin cu xut: T nhng l thuyt trn do nhng tnh cht ring bit v phm vi nghin cu v nhng c im c th ca nn kinh t Vit Nam chng ti quyt nh xy dng m hnh nghin cu Vit Nam nh sau: FDIt= 0+1FDIt-1+ 2Yt+ 3 gt + 4LC+ 5EDU+ 6CSHT+ 7INF+ 8TD+t

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PHNG PHP NGHIN CU KINH T

Trong : STT 1 K hiu FDI nh ngha cc bin v n v tnh ton
K vng

Ngun GSO

FDI bnh qun u ngi tnh bng n.a nghn ng VND, theo mc gi 1994) FDI bnh qun u ngi ca nm th + (t-1) tnh bng nghn ng VND, theo mc gi 1994). T l tng trng kinh t qua cc nm.
+

2 3

FDIt-1 g

MPI GSO

Quy m ca th trng + GDP bnh qun u ngi trn nm. n v VND, theo mc gi 1994

GSO

LC

Chi ph lao ng o lng mc lng _ bnh qun hng thng n v tnh: ngn ng/nm. Cht lng gio dc o lng bng t l + tt nghip ph thng trn dn s. n v tnh % C s h tng, o lng bng u my + in thoi trn 1000 ngi dn. Ch s lm pht tnh theo trung bnh _ hng nm t l lm pht hin ti Ch s hn ch FDI RES Ch s u t nc ngoi t nh. Cc yu t khc nh hng ti u t n.a nc ngoi FDI Ch s t do ho thng mi Ch s quan liu
+ _ _

MOLISA

EDU

GSO

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

TEL INF RES 0 t EXL Bureu TRD RL

GSO GSO

Ch s ph thuc thng mi (Trade + dependence ) Ch s chnh sch chnh ph

+

Bng 1: Gii thch cc bin s dng trong m hnh Ch : + v l i din cho mi quan h dng (tch cc) v m (tiu cc), n.a: khng c ng dng, hoc khng xc nh c 17

V. Phng php nghin cu:

1. Xc nh cc ch tiu nghin cu:

i. xc nh m hnh cc nhn t nh hng ti t l u t nc ngoi ti Vit Nam chng ti dng bin ph thuc l FDI trn u ngi. Mc ch chng ti dng yu t FDI trn u ngi l d quan st s thay i ca chng. V cc ch tiu thuc bin c lp chng ti nghin cu cc bin sau: FDIt-1 bin tr nm th t-1 chng ti mun nghin cu s nh hng ca hiu ng thu ht u t ca nhng nm trc y nh hng nh th no ti s liu thu ht u t nm hin ti. Mt trong nhng yu t nh hng ln ti ngun vn FDI vo ni a chnh l quy m ca th trng, n phn nh ln c kh nng tiu th v kh nng cung cp cc ngun nguyn liu u vo ca qu trnh sn xut, v k vng pht trin trong tng lai ca cc nh u t. Chng ti dung ch tiu GDP/u ngi th hin tim nng pht trin ca th trng. Chi ph lao ng c tnh bng mc lng danh ngha trn nm. c tnh bng s thu nhp ca trung bnh ca nhng ngi tham gia lao ng. Cc yu t cn li chng ti trnh by cch tnh trn bng 1.

ii.

iii.

iv. v.

2. Ngun ti liu nghin cu:

V s liu nghin cu: nhm s dng s liu th cp, gm c hai dng chnh s liu nh tnh v s liu nh lng. S liu nh tnh chng ti thu thp vi mc ch m t cc bin khng th gii thch bng m hnh ti vic thu ht u t trc tip nc ngoi FDI. S liu nh lng chng ti thu thp cc mu s liu thi k 2000-2010 dng thang o t l cho cc bin trn m hnh (1). V s liuY, g, CSHT, INF, RES, EDU chng ti thu thp da trn bo cao nin gim cc nm ca tng cc thng k Vit Nam GSO. V s liu FDI, bin tr FDIt-1 c thu thp ti b k hoch v u t Vit Nam. S liu chi ph lao ng c thng k b thng binh v lao ng MOLISA qua cc nm.

3. Cc bc phn tch:
i. ii. Phng php phn tch x l s liu: S liu sau khi c thu thp s tin hnh phn tch, x l v nhp s liu bng phn mm SPSS. Sau khi nhp m hnh my tnh dng phn mm SPSS chy tm m hnh hi quy da trn phng php OLS(phng php bnh phng nh nht). M hnh c lng nh sau: M hnh tng qut 18

PHNG PHP NGHIN CU KINH T

FDI i 0 i X i u i
FDIi l s u t nc ngoi FDI trn u ngi (ngn ng) 0 , i l h s hi quy ca m hnh Xi l cc bin c lp (cc nhn t c nh hng n vn u t nc ngoi FDI) * Dng hm p dng (FDIt)= 0+1FDIt-1+ 2Yt+ 3 gt + 4LC+ 5EDU+ 6CSHT+ 7INF+ 8TD+ t (1) Trong : 0: h s u t t nh. 1,..,8: l h s hi quy ca m hnh. iii. iv. Tip n ta dng phng php c lng GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) khc phc tnh trng a cng tuyn v phng sai thay i trong m hnh. Da trn phng php OLS ta tin hnh kim nh T (vi ln lt =1%,5%,10%) cc gi thuyt t H1 H8 kim nh s ph thuc cho bin u t nc ngoi Vit Nam. Tip n ta tin hnh kim nh kh nng gii thch ca m hnh vi cc mc ngha tng ng trn.

VI. Cu trc bo co d kin Chng 1 : I. II. III. IV. t Vn L Do Chn Ti Ngha Thc Tin Ca Ti Mc Tiu Nghin Cu i Tng V Phm Vi Nghin Cu Chng 2 : I. II. C S L Thuyt Khung khi nim Danh sch bin Chng 3: Quy Trnh V phng Php Nghin Cu I. II. Trnh t nghin cu Phng php nghin cu 19

1. Gi thuyt nghin cu 2. M hnh nghin cu 3. Phng php nghin cu III. Kt Qa Nghin Cu V Tho Lun 1. Xy dng d liu, lm sch v x l d liu 2. M t mu 3. Kim nh mi lin h gia cc bin nh hng ti vic thu ht FDI trong m hnh. 4. Kim nh ph hp ca m hnh. 5. Phn tch nhn t 6. Hi Quy IV. Chng 5: Hn ch ca ti - Xut Kin Ngh 1. Hn ch ca ti 2. Mt s xut 3. Mt s kin ngh

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PHNG PHP NGHIN CU KINH T

DANH MC TI LIU THAM KHO 1. Barrell, R., and Pain, N., (1997), Foreign Direct Investment, Technological Change and Economic Growth Within Europe, The Economic Journal 107, pp. 1770-86 2. Cheng, L. K., and Kwan, Y. K. (2000), What Are the Determinants of the Location of FDI? The Chinese Experience, Journal Of International Economics, 51, pp. 379-400 3. George Agiomirgianakis, Dimitrios Asteriou and K. Papathoma .(2006): The Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investment:A Panel Data Study For The Oecd Countries. 4. Gio trnh Kinh t v m, Trn Vn Hng_NXB Gio dc. 5. Head, C. K., Ries, J. C., and Swenson, D. L. (1995), Agglomeration Benefits and Locational Choice: Evidence from Japanese Manufacturing Investments in the United States, Journal of International Economics, 10, pp. 92-116 a. Mitrios Asteriou and K. Papathoma (2006), The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Panel Data Study For The OECD Countries, Department of Economics , Discussion Paper Series No. 03/06. 6. N.Gregory Mankiw, Kinh t v m: New Evidence From The Transition Economies. 7. Nhm t vn cc nh ti tr cho Vit Nam.(2011). Bo co pht trin Vit Nam 2012 Kinh t th trng khi Vit Nam tr thnh quc gia c thu nhp trung bnh 8. Phn tch d liu nghin cu vi SPSS. Hong Trng _ NXB Hng c. 9. Solow, R.M.(1956), A contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 65-94 10. Wheeler, D., and Mody, A. (1992), International Investment Location Decisions: The Case of US Firms, Journal of International Economics, 33, pp. 57-76 11. Yuko Kinoshita. Nauro F. Campos.( 2003): Why Does Fdi Go Where It Goes? New Evidence From The Transition Economies. 12. Yuko Kinoshita and Nauro F. Campos (2004), Estimating The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: How Important Are Sampling and Omitted Variable Biases?, BOFIT discussion papers 2004.no.10.

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