Bi 5: Phng php chn mu v xc nh c mu

Slide 1

Ti sao chn mu ?
Chn mu l vic chn mt s n v trong dn s (population), nhm rt ra cc kt lun v dn s . Mt n v ca mu l mt c th hoc mt thnh vin m chng ta o lng. y chnh l n v nghin cu. Mt dn s l tng th ca tt c cc n v. iu tra tng th (census) l vic o lng tt c cc n v c trong dn s. Danh sch tt c cc n v c trong dn s gip chng ta rt mu l Khung mu (sample frame).

Slide 2

Ti sao chn mu ?

Chn mu lm gim chi ph nghin cu; Chn mu ng cch lm tng chnh xc ca nghin cu; Tng tc thu thp thng tin d liu; C nhng dn s m ta khng th nghin cu tng th;

Slide 3

Mu nh th no l TT?
Tnh ng n: mu phi i din cho tnh cht ca tng th dn s hoc phn ln cc n v c trong dn s; Tnh chnh xc: khng th c mu i din cho dn s tt c mi kha cnh. Do , lun c sai s sinh ra t vic chn mu (sampling error). o lng tnh chnh xc bng ch tiu thng k sai s chun (standard error of estimate).

Slide 4

Cc phng php chn mu trong nghin cu phng ch m c

Slide 5

La chn phng php chn mu

Phi tr li cc cu hi sau y: 1. 2. 3. 4. Dn s mc tiu l g? Cc ch tiu cn quan tm l g? Phng php chn mu no l ph hp? Cn c mu bao nhiu?

Slide 6

La chn phng php chn mu

1. Dn s mc tiu l g? Phi hiu r v cc c im ca dn s cn nghin cu Phi bit dn s bao gm cc n v nh th no (c nhn, h gia nh). Phi nm r nh hng nghin cu nh th no, d nh tin hnh v cc iu kin lin quan.

Slide 7

La chn phng php chn mu

2. Cc ch tiu cn nghin cu l g? Cc ch tiu m t cc c im chung ca dn s; Cc ch tiu th hin cc c im ring m ta quan tm; Nn lng trc cc dng d liu ca ch tiu (danh ngha, th bc, khong cch, t s). Nu dn s bao gm cc nhm ph ring bit, nn nh hng xc nh cc d liu danh ngha chia nhm theo t l.
Slide 8

La chn phng php chn mu

3. -

Chng ta c th c Khung mu hay khng? Khung mu l danh sch tt c cc n v, c th c trong mu (l tng). C nhiu trng hp ta khng th c c Khung mu; C gng c c Khung mu.

Slide 9

La chn phng php chn mu

3. Chn la phng php chn mu ph hp? C hai chn la chnh: chn mu theo xc sut hoc phi xc sut. Nu chn theo xc sut:, chn mu phi tha cc iu kin i u ki n sau: Ngi iu tra khng th thay i s la chn cc n v iu tra; Ch la chn cc n v t Khung mu; Vic thay th cc n v phi c thc hin r rng v c kim theo theo cc iu kin cho trc.
Slide 10

La chn phng php chn mu

4. Chng ta cn bao nhiu n v nghin cu (c mu)? C hai cu chuyn khng chnh xc: Mu phi ln, nu khng s khng c tnh i din; Mu phi tng ng vi mt t l no so vi dn s.

Nu ly mu phi xc sut: xc nh cc nhm ph (subgroups), nguyn tc la chn, kinh ph c c. Nu ly mu xc sut: c mu ty thuc vo bin thin ca dn s v chnh xc ta mun c ca kt qu.
Slide 11

La chn phng php chn mu

4. Chng ta cn bao nhiu n v nghin cu (c mu)? Cc nguyn tc xc nh c mu : Dn s cng bin thin nhiu th s mu phi cng ln t tnh chnh xc; chnh xc cng tng th s mu phi cng ln. Phm vi sai s cng nh th s mu phi cng ln. Khi dn s c nhiu nhm ph, th s mu phi ln mu ca tng nhm ph phi t yu cu ti thiu.
Slide 12

Cc phng php chn mu trong nghin cu phng ch m c

1. Chn mu theo xc sut: phi bit thng tin v s quan st ca Ch m su ph bi v c tng th tnh xc sut c la chn ca mi quan st trong th su c l ch c m mu. Chn mu ngu nhin n gin. Ch m ng gi Chn mu ngu nhin h thng. Ch m ng h th Chn mu ngu nhin phn tng. Ch m ng t Chn mu ngu nhin nhiu giai on. Ch m ng nhi o Chn mu ngu nhin theo nhm. Ch m ng
Slide 13

Chn mu xc sut

1. -

Chn mu ngu nhin n gin (simple random sampling) Cc nguyn tc xc nh: Xc nh xc sut chn n v: Xc sut chn la = c mu/dn s (%) Lp danh sch (Khung mu). Chn ngu nhin theo danh sch.

Slide 14

Chn mu xc sut
2. Chn mu h thng (systematic sampling) Cc nguyn tc xc nh : Xc nh bc nhy k Bc nhy B c nh y = dn s /c m u s/c mu Lp danh sch (Khung mu) chnh xc, hoc c s th t. Chn ngu nhin n v khi u Chn cc n v k tip bng bc nhy k.

Slide 15

Chn mu xc sut

2. -

Chn mu h thng (systematic sampling) Cc lu trnh lch mu (bias) : Trn ngu Tr n ng u nhin danh sch trong Khung m u mu Chn ngu nhin n v khi u vi ln.

Nu thc hin tt, phng php ny cho hiu qu cao hn phng php ngu nhin n gin.

Slide 16

Chn mu xc sut
3. Chn mu phn tng (stratified sampling) Hu ht cc dn s u cha ng cc nhm ph (tng strata). Chn mu phn tng nhm: Tng hiu qu thng k khi chn mu C d liu phn tch tng nhm ph Cho php s dng cc phn tch kh bit nhau cho tng nhm ph khc nhau. Ni b nhm ng nht D bit gia cc nhm
Slide 17

Nu phn tng l tng: -

Chn mu phn tng v theo nhm Ch m t

x x x x x x x x x x

x x x x x x x x x x

x x x x x x x x x x

o o o o o o o o o o

o o o o o o o o o o

o o o o o o o o o o

x x x x x x x

x x x x x x x

x x x x x x x

x o x o x o

x o x o x o

x o x o x o

o x o x o x o

o x o x o x o

o x o x o x o

Dn s 1 c chia thnh cc nhm dn s ph (tng) d bit nhau da trn cc c tnh ring bit ca cc c th (chia nhm x, v o ring bit).

Dn s 2 c chia thnh cc nhm dn s ph (tng) bao gm cc c th c tnh a dng nh nhau (x, v o u c mt trong tng nhm).

Slide 18

Chn mu xc sut

3. -

Chn mu phn tng (stratified sampling) C mu ty thuc vo hai vn : Tng mu cn l bao nhiu? Tng mu s c phn b cho tng nhm ph nh th no?

Slide 19

Chn mu xc sut
3. Chn mu phn tng (stratified sampling) Theo t l (proportionate) hay khng theo t l (disproportionate)? Theo t l: s mu ca mi nhm ph s c quyt nh theo t l ca dn s ca mi nhm ph so vi tng dn s. Cch ny l tng v: C chnh xc v thng k cao; D chn mu; C c trng s.
Slide 20

Chn mu xc sut
3. Chn mu phn tng (stratified sampling) Qu trnh chn mu phn tng: Chn cc bin (danh ngha) chia nhm, phn tng. Quyt nh t l ca tng nhm so vi dn s chung. Chn cch ly mu t l hay khng t l. Xc nh cc Khung mu ring bit cho tng nhm ph. Trn ngu nhin danh sch trong Khung mu. Chn n v ngu nhin hay h thng trong tng nhm ph (tng).
Slide 21

Chn mu xc sut

4. -

Chn mu theo nhm (clustering sampling) Khc vi chn mu phn tng (chia ra cc nhm ph ng nht nhau) l chia ra cc nhm mang tnh a dng nh dn s chung.

Slide 22

Chn mu xc sut

4. -

Chn mu theo nhm (clustering sampling) Nhiu nghin cu lin quan ti dn s c xc nh theo khu vc a l hoc a gii hnh chnh. Khi vic ny xy ra, chia nhm theo khu vc a l hoc a gii hnh chnh l rt quan trng. r tr Cch chia nhm ny ph hp vi cc nghin cu c dn s cc cp quc gia, tnh, thnh ph, hoc nh lnh th nh hn.

Slide 23

Chn mu xc sut
4. Chn mu theo nhm (clustering sampling) Khi thit k chn mu phn nhm, phi tr li cc cu hi sau: 1. 2. 3. 4. Cc nhm ng nht vi nhau nh th no? Cc nhm c kch c bng nhau hay khng bng nhau? Chng ta nn xc nh mt nhm ln nh th no? Chng ta s s dng vic phn nhm mt giai on (single-stage) hay nhiu giai on (multistage)? Mt mu ln bao nhiu l va?
Slide 24

5.

Chn mu xc sut
Chn mu phn tng 1. Chia dn s thnh mt t nhm ph -Mi nhm ph c nhiu n v. -Chia nhm ph theo cc bin quan trng. 2. Bo m tnh ng nht homogeneity trong ni b tng nhm. 3. Bo m tnh d bit heterogeneity gia cc nhm. 4. Chn ngu nhin cc n v trong tng nhm ph. Chn mu theo nhm 1. Chia dn s thnh nhiu nhm ph -Mi nhm ph cha t n v. -Chia nhm ph theo thun tin hoc a l, khu vc. 2. Bo m tnh d bit heterogeneity trong tng nhm. 3. Bo m tnh ng nht homogeneity gia cc nhm. 4. Chn ngu nhin vi nhm ph nghin cu.
Slide 25

Chn mu phi xc sut

Khi chn mu phi xc sut, khng bit c xc sut chn mt n v nghin cu. L chn mu c mc ch (purposive sampling). Mu c chn c xu hng b thin lch (bias).

Slide 26

Chn mu phi xc sut

Thng dng bi v: Ph hp vi vic chn mu theo mt mc ch no . Khng cn xc nh cc ch s lin quan n dn s, do khng cn quan tm nhiu n tnh i din. Gim thi gian v chi ph nghin cu. Thun tin trn thc t, nht l khi ta khng bit chnh xc dn s v cc c im ca n.

Slide 27

Chn mu phi xc sut

5. Chn mu theo kinh nghim (chn mu phn on): L mt dng chn mu c mc ch (purposive sampling). Ngi nghin cu chn mu theo kinh nghim ca mnh, hoc theo kinh nghim ca ngi khc. Thng dng khi: ngi nghin cu mun la chn mu theo mt tiu chun no . Nghin cu khm ph. Nghin cu 1 mu lch theo 1 hng no .
Slide 28

Chn mu phi xc sut

6. Chn mu theo hn ngch (chn mu nh mc) L dng chn mu c mc ch (theo t l, khng theo t l) Chng ta dng phng php ny tng tnh i din v mt s c im m t cc chiu ca dn s, v c th dng i din cho dn s.

Slide 29

Chn mu phi xc sut

6. Chn mu theo hn ngch Chn nhiu hn mt chiu kim sot, ph hp 2 tiu chun: (1) c mt phn phi trong dn s m ta c th phng on c; (2) Thch ng vi ch nghin cu.

Slide 30

Chn mu phi xc sut

6. Chn mu theo hn ngch V d: Gii tnh: 2 loi nam, n. Trnh : 2 mc - i hc, di i hc. Ngnh hc: 6 loi ngh thut v khoa hc, nng nghip, kin trc, kinh doanh, k ngh, ngnh khc. Tn gio: 4 loi - Pht gio, Thin cha gio, Tin lnh, loi khc. Thnh vin hip hi: 2 loi thnh vin, khng thnh vin. Tng lp kinh t - x hi h gia nh: 3 mc giu c, trung lu, ngho.
Slide 31

7. Chn mu theo s thun tin Vic chn mu ty thuc vo c hi tip xc i tng nghin cu ca nh nghin cu. Khng c tiu chun c th cho vic chn mu thun tin. Thch hp cho cc nghin cu khm ph.

Slide 32

Chn mu phi xc sut

8. Chn mu ging nhau (matched samples) Trong nhng nghin cu nh gi tc ng thng s dng k thut chn mu ging nhau lm c s cho cc phn tch. Chn mu ging nhau bng pp ngu nhin. Chn mu ging nhau bng thng k.

Slide 33

u v nhc im ca cc phng php chn mu nhc i c phng ch m

Mc chnh xc ca kt qu k qu tnh ton Ngu nhin Ng n gin gi Ng Ngu nhin h thng th Ngu nhin Ng phn tng t Ngu nhin Ng nhi nhiu giai on o Ngu nhin Ng theo nhm + + ++ Gim chi ph Gi thu thp th S n gin gi trong vic vi ln k hoch k ho thu thp th + -+ D x l

+ + --

--

++

Slide 34

Xc nh c mu trong nghin cu
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Xc nh c mu l vic xc nh s quan st ti thiu cn phi thu thp kt qu c lng c tin cy chp nhn c. Theo quy lut chung, trong trng hp cc yu t khc khng i, kch c mu cng ln th tin cy ca kt qu cng cao.

Slide 35

Xc nh c mu trong nghin cu
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Tuy nhin, kch c mu ln cng t ra vn v tnh kh thi v tn km chi ph v thi gian. Ngoi ra, tin cy ca d liu thu thp c vi c mu ln cng l mt iu kh khn, v khi s quan st nhiu t chc thu thp kh khn v phc tp hn sai st d xut hin hn. Xc nh c mu thch hp trc khi thu thp d liu rt quan trng, l c s xy dng thit k nghin cu (research design).

Slide 36

Xc nh c mu cho nghin cu nh lng

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Nghin cu m t c t Tiu chun nh gi chnh xc ca nghin cu chu c c m t bao gm cc nhn t: tin cy mong mun, t g t c mu phng sai ca tng th v k thut ly mu c s phng c t th k thu l m c s dng. xem xt mi tng quan ca cc nhn t ny i m tng c t vi kch c mu, chng ta xem xt 1 v d thng k c d th quen thuc: gi tr trung bnh. thu tr

Slide 37

Xc nh c mu cho nghin cu m t c c t (nh lng): ( lng): p dng cho mu c ly theo xc sut d m c l su

Slide 38

Xc nh c mu cho nghin cu m t c c t (tnh trung bnh)

Phng on khong tin cy Ph kho c

I

Ta dng khong tin cy phng on khong m kho c ph kho gi tr trung bnh ca dn s ri vo tr c s r Dng ch s thng k sai s chun standard error of the ch th s chu mean (x hay l se). Vi : se). V

x = sai s chun. s chu = lch chun ca dn s chu c s n = c m u c

Slide 39

x =

s n

Xc nh c mu cho nghin cu m t c c t (tnh trung bnh)

S dng lch chun ca mu n nh l mt c chu c m nh m c lng khng chch (unbiased estimator) ca lch ng ch c chu c chun ca dn s. Vi: s V

s x = n
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s = lch chun ca mu n chu c m V d d n1 = 10 1.15 Xtb1 = 3.0 10 s1 = 1.15 se = 0.36

Slide 40

x =

s n

Xc nh c mu cho nghin cu m t c c t (tnh trung bnh)

Phng nh Gi tr trung bnh ca dn s: Ph tr c s I Trung bnh ca dn s, , c th c c lng theo c s th c c lng cng thc sau: th = xtb Z*se
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Theo v d trn: d = xtb se = 3.0 Z*0.36 Z = 1 cho mc tin cy = 68% m c Z = 1.96 cho mc tin cy = 95% m c Z = 3 cho mc tin cy = 99% m c

I I I

Slide 41

x =

s n

Xc nh c mu cho nghin cu m t c c t (tnh trung bnh)

Phng nh Gi tr trung bnh ca dn s: Ph tr c s

I

Theo v d trn: d = xtb se = 3.0 Z*0.36 Kho Khong tin cy cho gi tr trung bnh ca dn s, , l: c tr c s mc tin cy 68%: 2.64 3.36 ( = 3.0 0.36) c mc tin cy 95%: 2.29 - 3.71 ( = 3.0 0.71) c mc tin cy 99%: 1.92 - 4.08 ( = 3.0 1.08) c

I I I I

Slide 42

x =

s n

Xc nh c mu cho nghin cu m t c c t (tnh trung bnh)

Tnh c mu lin quan n cc gi tr Trung bnh c tr Cn cc thng tin sau: I chnh xc mong mun v lm sao lng ha n: mu lng Mc tin cy (confidence level) m ta mun c. c (confidence mu
I

ln ca khong tin cy c kho c bin thin k vng trong dn s (expected bi v s dispersion in the population). population). Vic iu chnh dn s hu hn c cn hay khng. Vi i ch s h c

Slide 43

Xc nh c mu cho nghin cu m t c c t (tnh trung bnh)

I

Ta c th p dng cng thc sau da trn lch th d th d chu chun v sai s chun ca dn s tnh c mu: s chu c s c

x =

s n

s n= x

s n= 2 x
Slide 44

x =

s n

Xc nh c mu cho nghin cu m t c c t (tnh trung bnh)

Tnh c mu lin quan n cc gi tr Trung bnh c tr V d: tnh c mu cho nghin cu thu nhp ca SV d c c nh c I chnh xc mong mun v lm sao lng ha n: mu lng Mc tin cy (confidence level): 95% (Z=1.96) c (confidence
I

ln ca khong tin cy 0.25 (tr.ng) = se*Z kho c (tr. bin thin k vng trong dn s (expected bi v s dispersion in the population): lch chun = 0.7 chu (tr. (tr.ng) Phng nh sai s chun: se = 0.25/1.96 = 0.127 Ph s chu C mu n = 0.72/0.1272 = 30.38 = 30
Slide 45

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x =

s n

Xc nh c mu cho nghin cu m t c c t (tnh trung bnh)

Tnh c mu lin quan n cc gi tr Trung bnh c tr V d: tnh c mu cho nghin cu thu nhp ca SV d c c nh c I chnh xc mong mun v lm sao lng ha n: mu lng Mc tin cy (confidence level): 99% (Z=3.0) c (confidence Z=3.0)
I

ln ca khong tin cy 0.25 (tr.ng) = se*Z kho c (tr. bin thin k vng trong dn s (expected bi v s dispersion in the population): lch chun = 0.7 chu (tr. (tr.ng) Phng nh sai s chun: se = 0.25/3.0 = 0.083 Ph s chu 0.25/3.0 0.083 C mu n = 0.72/0.0832 = 71,02 = 71 /0.083
Slide 46

I I

x =

s n

Xc nh c mu cho nghin cu m t c c t (tnh trung bnh)

Tnh c mu lin quan n cc gi tr Trung bnh c tr V d: tnh c mu cho nghin cu thu nhp ca SV d c c nh c I chnh xc mong mun v lm sao lng ha n: mu lng Mc tin cy (confidence level): 95% (Z=1.96) c (confidence 95 (Z=1.96)
I

ln ca khong tin cy 0.1 (tr.ng) = se*Z kho c 0.1 (tr. bin thin k vng trong dn s (expected bi v s dispersion in the population): lch chun = 0.7 chu (tr. (tr.ng) Phng nh sai s chun: se = 0.1/1.96 = 0.051 Ph s chu 0.1 0.051 C mu n = 0.72/0.0512 = 188,38 = 188 /0.051
Slide 47

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Xc nh c mu cho nghin cu m t c c t (tnh trung bnh)

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Phng sai ca tng th v kch c mu Phng c t th c Phng sai (s2) cng ln th kch c mu cng phi cng Phng l c ph ln. Tuy nhin, phng sai tng th khng phi lc no phng t th ph cng c sn s c cc gii php sau: gi S dng kt qu tnh ton phng sai t cc nghin k qu phng t cu trc. trc. Tnh phng sai da vo kt qu kho st th phng d k qu kh th nghi nghim (pilot survey). Gi s cc bin quan st s tun theo phn phi Gi bi s ph chu chun lch chun = 1/6 khong dao ng ca chu kho c d liu (max min). li
Slide 48

Xc nh c mu cho nghin cu m t c c t (tnh trung bnh)

Trng hp s dng thang o trong nghin cu hnh vi, Trng h s c

s khong cch cng nhiu th phng sai cng ln. kho nhi phng l S khong cch kho 4 5 6 7 10 Phng sai d kin Phng d ki 0,7 1,3 1,2 2 2 3 2,5 4 37

Theo kinh nghim, nn chn phng sai ln nht nghi ch phng l nh

Slide 49

Xc nh c mu cho nghin cu m t c c t (tnh trung bnh)

I

Mc ngha v kch c mu c C ba mc ngha thng c s dng: 1%, 5% v m thng c s 10%, trong 1% l mc ngha thng p dng cho m thng d nghin cu trong phng th nghim, trong khi cc c nghi nghin cu thc a c th chp nhn mc ngha 10%. c th th ch nh m Mc ngha cng thp th kch c mu cng ln. c l

Slide 50

Xc nh c mu cho nghin cu m t c c t (tnh trung bnh)

I

chnh xc v kch c mu c chnh xc cng k vng cao th yu cu c mu cng v c c ln. Vic tng chnh xc rt tn km. Tng chnh Vi r t xc 2 ln th s mu phi tng 4 ln. l s ph l

Slide 51

Xc nh c mu cho nghin cu m t c c t (tnh trung bnh)

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K thut ly mu v kch c mu thu l m c Mi k thut ly mu khc nhau s c cch tnh trung k thu l m s bnh v phng sai khc nhau. Chnh v vy, khng phng v phi lc no cng p dng cng thc phn trc ph d th ph trc tnh kch c mu c ngi ta xut cch tnh ton b ngi xu b sung;

s2 = s2deff

Slide 52

Xc nh c mu cho nghin cu m t c c t (tnh trung bnh)

K thut ly mu thu l m Ngu nhin phn tng Ng t (stratified sampling) Ngu nhin theo nhm Ng (cluster sampling) Deff 0,5 0,95

1,25 1,5

s2 = s2deff

thay s2 vo cng thc tnh c mu th c trc y trc

Slide 53

Xc nh c mu theo t l c t
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ta ph i xc nh t l c a dn s m chng c m t thu c tnh cho tr c, t l ny g i l p. thay v s dng lch chun, bin thin ca dn s chu bi c trong trng hp ny c xc nh bng p x q trng h c b q l t l c a dn s khng c thu c tnh , t c l q = (1 p) sai s chu n c a trung bnh c thay th b ng sai s chu n c a t l , p

Slide 54

Xc nh c mu theo t l c t
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Gi s r ng t m t kh o st s kh i, ta bi t p = 30%. Ta quy t nh c l ng t l th c ng c a dn s trong ph m vi sai s 10% (p = 0.30 0.10). (p Gi s l ta mu n t m c tin c y 95%.

Slide 55

Xc nh c mu theo t l c t
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Cch tnh c thc hin nh sau: c th hi nh 0.10 = Khong tin cy mong mun m ta k vng t Kho c mu v t l dn s t c (quyt nh mc tiu) s c (quy m 1.96 p = mc tin cy 95% c lng khong tin cy m c c lng kho c m ta k vng t l dn s t c (quyt nh mc v t s c (quy m tiu) p= 0.051 = sai s chun ca t l (= 0.10/1.96) s chu c t pq =Ch th bin thin ca mu, c dng nh l =Ch th bi c m c nh mt c lng ca bin thin ca dn s c lng c bi c s n=C mu =C

Slide 56

n=

pq

2p

Xc nh c mu theo t l c t
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p d ng cng th c ny v i cc gi tr trn, ta c:

p =
Theo Mason,R.D, 1999

pq n

n=

pq

0 .3 x 0 .7 n= (0.051) 2
I

= 81
Slide 57

XC NH C MU CHO NGHIN CU C C NH TNH (nghin cu tnh hung) c hu

I I

Da vo s lp li ca thng tin. s l c Da vo cc kt lun rt ra. k lu

Slide 58

Cc sai s trong chn mu

1. Sai s do kch thc mu (sampling variability) s thc m 2. Sai s do cch chn mu: s ch m Do qu trnh chn mu khng ph hp (d xy ra trong ch m h (d k thut chn mu theo hn ngch). thu ch m h ng Do cng c tnh ton khng ph hp. c h

Slide 59

Cc sai s trong chn mu

3. Sai s khng do chn mu s ch m 3.1. Khng quan st c: c: i tng kho st khng ph hp vi i tng d tng kh h v tng d kin trong nghin cu. ki c i tng kho st khng tr li y thng tin. tng kh tr 3.2. Quan st c c i tng c kho st tr li sai. tng c kh tr Thang o sai. Ghi chp sai.
Slide 60