MC LC

Mc lc 1. Gii thiu ti nghin cu 1.1. Gii thiu ti 1.2. Mc tiu nghin cu 1.3. i tng, phm vi v cu hi nghin cu 2. Tng quan ti liu v c s l thuyt 2.1. Tng quan ti liu 2.1.1. Gii thiu cc nghin cu trc y c lin quan 2.1.2. Ni dung chnh cc nghin cu trc y c lin quan 2.1.3. nh gi, nhn xt 2.2. C s l thuyt v phng php nghin cu 2.2.1. C s l thuyt 2.2.2. Phng php nghin cu 3. K hoch pht trin ti 3.1. Gii thiu m hnh s dng trong ti 3.2. Cch trch xut s liu cho m hnh t ngun s liu th cp 3.3. Cu trc d kin ca bo co kt qu Ti liu tham kho Ph lc Ph lc 1: Danh sch cc ngn hng thng mi Vit Nam c nghin cu Ph lc 2: Bng s liu cc bin trong m hnh 12 14 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 9 10 11

Ti liu nh km: Bo co ti chnh ca cc ngn hng thng mi Vit Nam c nghin cu.

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1. Gii thiu ti nghin cu 1.1. Gii thiu ti Ngn hng mt loi hnh nh ch ti chnh trung gian ng vai tr rt quan trng trong nn kinh t quc gia vi chc nng phn phi, iu tit ngun ti chnh mt cch hiu qu v hp l cho cc ch th tham gia hot ng kinh t, iu ny cng mang li cho chnh ngn hng mt ngun thu nhp khng nh. Qua nhiu nm, th trng ti chnh Vit Nam dn pht trin ko theo s ra i v ngy cng ln mnh thm ca cc ngn hng thng mi, kt qu t cc hot ng ngn hng gp phn ng k vo thu nhp quc gia. Bn cnh nhng thun li th cng tn ti khng t kh khn nh hng n hot ng to ra li nhun ca cc ngn hng. Cc nghin cu trc y ca Asli Demirguc-Kunt v Harry Huizinga nh gi c nhng tc ng ln kh nng sinh li ca ngn hng bng m hnh hi quy a bin vi quy m 80 quc gia trong giai on 1988 1995. Bi vit ny s dng m hnh nghin cu trn kt hp vi s chn lc cc bin c lp v ph thuc cho ph hp vi bi cnh cc ngn hng thng mi Vit Nam v bng phng php phn tch hi quy nh gi tc ng ln kh nng sinh li ca cc ngn hng, qua c th pht huy nhng li th ca cc yu t tc ng tch cc v hn ch cc yu t tiu cc ngy cng ci thin mi trng hot ng ngn hng cng nh gp phn vo vic pht trin hn th trng ti chnh Vit Nam. 1.2. Mc tiu nghin cu Nhn bit c tc ng ca cc yu t nh hng n kh nng sinh li ca cc ngn hng thng mi Vit Nam. 1.3. i tng, phm vi v cu hi nghin cu i tng nghin cu ca bi vit l hn 40 ngn hng thng mi Vit Nam (xem Ph lc 1) vi phm vi nghin cu xoay quanh cc yu t nh hng n kh nng sinh li ca cc ngn hng tr li cu hi: Cc yu t nh hng n kh nng sinh li ca cc ngn hng thng mi Vit Nam nh th no?

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2. Tng quan ti liu v c s l thuyt 2.1 Tng quan ti liu 2.1.1. Gii thiu cc nghin cu trc y c lin quan Trc tm quan trng ca nh ch ngn hng trong nn kinh t, c rt nhiu ti nghin cu xoay quanh loi hnh nh ch ti chnh ny, c bit l cc nghin cu i su v thu nhp ca cc ngn hng. Nm 1998, hai tc gi ni ting Asli Demirguc-Kunt (Nhm nghin cu pht trin DECRG ca Ngn hng Th gii) v Harry Huizinga (i hc Tilburg H Lan v Trung tm nghin cu chnh sch kinh t CEPR) vit bi nghin cu ni v cc yu t tc ng n li nhun bin v kh nng sinh li ca cc ngn hng thng mi 80 quc gia (Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability: Some International Evidence). n nm 2000, cng chnh hai tc gi ny pht trin ln mt nghin cu mi v cu trc ti chnh v kh nng sinh li ca ngn hng (Financial Structure and Bank Profitability). C hai bi vit u ng dng m hnh hi quy th hin tc ng ca cc nhm yu t n li nhun bin v kh nng sinh li ca cc ngn hng thng mi. 2.1.2. Ni dung chnh cc nghin cu trc y c lin quan A. Demirguc-Kunt v H. Huizinga (1998) xy dng m hnh hi quy th hin s tc ng ca 6 nhm bin c lp n bin ph thuc l li nhun bin v kh nng sinh li. Trong 6 nhm bin c lp bao gm nhm bin v cc c im ngn hng, cc ch s v m, thu, bo him tin gi, cu trc ti chnh v cc ch s v lut v th ch. Mi nhm bin l cc bin c lp th hin cc c trng ca nhm bin, chi tit cc bin mc Appendix trong nghin cu ca A. Demirguc-Kunt v H. Huizinga (1998). Cc quan st trong m hnh c ly t s liu ca cc ngn hng thng mi v cc s liu v m ca 80 quc gia trong giai on 1988 1995. T cc kt qu m hnh trn, A. Demirguc-Kunt v H.Huizinga a ra mt s phn tch v mc v chiu hng tc ng ca cc bin c lp thuc 6 nhm bin ln li nhun bin v kh nng sinh li ca cc ngn hng thng mi tng quc gia.

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Nghin cu tip theo ca A. Demirguc-Kunt v H. Huizinga (2000) cng v li nhun bin v kh nng sinh li ca ngn hng nhng tp trung n tc ng ca cc yu t ti chnh quc gia nhiu hn. M hnh trong nghin cu ny c xy dng da trn m hnh ca nghin cu nm 1998 vi 4 nhm bin gm c im ngn hng, cc ch s v m, cc ch s v lut v th ch, ring nhm bin cu trc ti chnh c ci tin thnh nhm bin cu trc v s pht trin h thng ti chnh qua vic thm vo mt s bin c lp mi v lc b vi bin khng cn thit; chi tit cc nhm bin mc Appendix trong nghin cu ca A. Demirguc-Kunt v H. Huizinga (2000). Qua cc kt qu t m hnh, A. Demirguc-Kunt v Huizinga nh gi c s khc nhau v cu trc ti chnh v s pht trin h thng ti chnh mi quc gia s phn nh cc mc li nhun bin v kh nng sinh li khc nhau cc ngn hng trong tng quc gia. 2.1.3. nh gi, nhn xt Hai bi vit a ra mt m hnh hi quy chung v mt s phn tch c bn th hin s tc ng ca cc yu t n li nhun bin v kh nng sinh li ca cc ngn hng quy m quc t. Kt cu m hnh cht ch, h thng cc bin c lp c xc nh kh y v phn nhm hp l, r rng; s lng quan st nhiu v kt qu t m hnh phn nh tng i chnh xc chiu hng v mc tc ng ca cc yu t. S phn nhm h thng cc bin c lp gp phn vo vic phn bit s tc ng gia cc bin cp ngn hng (cc c im ngn hng v thu) v cp quc gia (cc ch s v m, cu trc ti chnh, bo him v cc ch s v lut v th ch). y l c s cc nghin cu trong phm vi quc gia c th lc b mt s bin cp quc gia m vn th hin c s tc ng t cc bin cp ngn hng. Bn cnh , m hnh tng qut nghin cu nm 1998 c cu trc cn phc tp do h thng bin gi th hin quc gia v nm, nghin cu nm 2000 a ra m hnh r rng v n gin hn nhng ch i su vo tc ng ca cc yu t cu trc v s pht trin h thng ti chnh. Nh vy, hng pht trin m hnh trong ti nghin cu ny s s dng cu trc ca m hnh nghin cu nm 2000 v chn lc cc yu t tc ng nghin cu nm 1998.

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2.2. C s l thuyt v phng php nghin cu 2.2.1. C s l thuyt Theo A. Demirguc-Kunt v H. Huizinga (1998), kh nng sinh li ca ngn hng thng mi chu s tc ng ca 6 nhm yu t 2 cp ngn hng v cp quc gia theo m hnh sau:

Trong , bin ph thuc l

chnh l kh nng sinh li ca ngn hng.

l cc l

bin c lp cp ngn hng gm 2 nhm bin l c im ngn hng v thu,

cc bin c lp cp quc gia gm 4 nhm bin l ch s v m, bo him tin gi, cu trc ti chnh v ch s v lut v th ch. M hnh s dng s liu ca 80 quc gia theo nm trong giai on 1988 1995 nn c hai bin gi th hin quc gia v nm l v l . Cc ch ci i, j, t c ngha l ngn hng i, quc gia j v nm t. Cc h s hi quy (h s chn), , , v ; l sai s ngu nhin.

Nh trnh by, m hnh trn kh phc tp v cu trc, A. Demirguc-Kunt v H. Huizinga (2000) ci tin m hnh trn bng cch b i cc bin gi, ci tin nhm bin cu trc ti chnh, nhm bin v bo him tin gi v thu c lc b, cu trc nm t cng c a ra khi m hnh, cc bin c lp trong nhm bin v lut v th ch c thay th bng cc bin c lp khc phn nh r rng hn h thng ti chnh quc gia. M hnh c dng sau:

Trong im ngn hng i, j,

l kh nng sinh li ca ngn hng i quc gia j,

l nhm bin c

gm nhm bin ch s v m v ch s v lut v th ch quc gia

l nhm bin cu trc ti chnh c ci tin thnh cu trc v s pht trin h thng

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ti chnh ca quc gia j. Chi tit cc bin c lp ca hai m hnh mc Appendix trong nghin cu ca A. Demirguc-Kunt v H. Huizinga (1998, 2000). 2.2.2. Phng php nghin cu Bi vit s dng m hnh hi quy a bin da trn c s l thuyt trnh by trn phn tch, nh gi tc ng ca cc yu t nh hng n kh nng sinh li ca cc ngn hng thng mi Vit Nam. Phn mm h tr nhp s liu v xut cc kt qu t m hnh l Microsoft Excel 2007 v Eview 5.0. S liu ca cc bin s dng trong m hnh l s liu th cp c trch xut t cc bn bo co ti chnh c ng cc website ngn hng thng mi Vit Nam. 3. K hoch pht trin ti 3.1. Gii thiu m hnh c s dng trong ti M hnh trong bi vit ny c k tha t m hnh ca A. Demirguc Kunt v H. Huizinga nhng c lc b mt s bin c lp ph hp vi tnh cht nghin cu ca cc ngn hng thng mi Vit Nam. Th nht, hai m hnh trong nghin cu ca A. Demirguc Kunt v H. Huizinga (1998, 2000) s dng s liu cp ngn hng v quc gia giai on 1998 1995 trong khi m hnh trong bi vit ny l ch l s liu ca cc ngn hng thng mi theo nm vi s quan st chnh l s lng cc ngn hng. V vy, cu trc v quc gia v nm v nhm bin v cc ch s v m, cu trc ti chnh quc gia c lc b. Th hai, cc ngn hng thng mi Vit Nam u c c ch v bo him tin gi tng t nhau v cha c c quan no chnh thc nh gi cc ch s v lut v th ch nn nhm bin bo him tin gi v ch s lut v th ch cng c a ra khi m hnh ny. Mt iu ng lu y l trong hai nhm bin cn li c a vo m hnh l c im ngn hng v thu, theo nghin cu ca A. Demirguc Kunt v H. Huizinga mi nhm u c cc bin c lp tng tc, cc bin tng tc gm hai phn: mt phn cp ngn hng v mt phn cp quc gia. Mt v d ly t Bng 4 trong nghin

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cu ca A. Demirguc-Kunt v H. Huizinga (1998) l bin Loan/ta * gdp/cap. Bin tng tc ny th hin s tc ng ng thi ca t l tin cho vay trn tng ti sn v GDP bnh qun u ngi. Tr li m hnh trong bi vit ny, do c trng s liu ch Vit Nam nn GDP bnh qun u ngi s ging nhau tt c cc ngn hng thng mi. Nh vy nu a c hai bin Loan/ta v Loan/ta * gdp/cap vo nh m hnh ca A. Demirguc-Kunt v H. Huizinga th s xy ra hin tng cng tuyn hon ho gia hai bin ny. V vy cc bin c lp tng tc s khng c a vo m hnh trong bi vit ny. T c s l thuyt v nhng iu trn, m hnh trong bi vit ny c dng nh sau:

Trong ,

l h s chn,

l cc h s hi quy,

l sai s ngu nhin. Chi

tit nhm bin NH v T v cc bin c lp c cho trong bng sau: Bin ph thuc KNSL Bin c lp VCP/TTS* TCV/TTS NH c im ngn hng TSKL/TTS TG/TTS CP/TTS VNN T Thu DT/TGNH * TG/TTS T l vn c phn trn tng ti sn nm trc T l tin cho vay trn tng ti sn T l ti sn khng sinh li trn tng ti sn T l tin gi khch hng trn tng ti sn T l chi ph ngoi li trn tng ti sn Ngn hng c vn nc ngoi (bin gi) Tng tc t l tin d tr trn tin gi ca ngn hng v t l tin gi khch hng trn tng ti sn (thu ngm) Kh nng sinh li ca ngn hng thng mi chnh l t l li nhun trc thu trn tng ti sn.

VNN l bin gi th hin tnh cht s hu ngn hng, VNN = 1 khi ngn hng c t 50% tr ln vn nc ngoi v VNN = 0 cc trng hp cn li.

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Theo m hnh ca A. Demirguc v H. Huizinga, bin Tax rate c tnh bng t l thu phi np trn li nhun trc thu, chnh l gi tr gn ng ca mc thu sut thu nhp doanh nghip, y l mt bin cp quc gia nn khng th a vo m hnh. T kt qu nghin cu ca A. Demirguc v H. Huizinga, du k vng ca cc bin c lp c cho bng sau: Du k vng

Bin c lp

L gii Vn ch s hu c mt phn l li nhun t cc hot ng ca

VCP/TTS*

ngn hng ca nm trc , nn bin VCP/TTS* c th s ng bin vi kh nng sinh li.

TCV/TTS

y l phn ti sn sinh li ca ngn hng, ngn hng cho vay c nhiu th c kh nng sinh li cao. y l phn ti sn khng to ra li nhun, nu phn ti sn ny chim t l cao th kh nng sinh li ca ngn hng khng cao. Tin gi ca khch hng v cc t chc tn dng cng nhiu th

TSKL/TTS

TG/TTS

chi ph s dng vn ca ngn hng cng cao nn bin TG/TTS s tc ng m n kh nng sinh li ca ngn hng.

CP/TTS

Ngn hng cng tr nhiu chi ph th li nhun cng gim i. Cc chi nhnh ca ngn hng nc ngoi Vit Nam do c tim

VNN

lc mnh t ngn hng hi s nn hot ng hiu qu v kh nng sinh li cao. Ngn hng u c tin gi ngn hng nh nc, cc ngn hng

DT/TGNH* TG/TTS

v cc t chc tn dng khc, nu phn tin gi ngn hng nh nc nhiu th kh nng sinh li s thp, tng tc vi bin TG/TTS s cng lm gim kh nng sinh li ca ngn hng.

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3.2. Cch trch xut s liu cho m hnh t ngun s liu th cp S liu c s dng trong m hnh c ly t Bng cn i k ton v Bo co kt qu hot ng kinh doanh trong cc bn bo co ti chnh ca cc ngn hng thng mi Vit Nam. T Bng cn i k ton (BCKT), c th ly cc s liu sau: Tng ti sn v tng ti sn nm trc . Vn c phn chnh l vn ch s hu mc ngun vn (n phi tr v vn ch s hu) ca BCKT. Tin cho vay gm tin cho vay khch hng v cc t chc tn dng (TCTD) mc ti sn ca BCKT. Ti sn khng sinh li chnh l tin mt v tng gi tr ti sn c nh mc ti sn ca BCKT. Tin gi khch hng gm tin gi ca khch hng v tin gi ca cc TCTD mc ngun vn ca BCKT. Tin d tr chnh l tin gi ti Ngn hng Nh Nc Vit Nam mc ti sn ca BCKT. Tin gi ca ngn hng gm tin gi ti Ngn hng Nh Nc Vit Nam v tin gi cc TCTD khc mc ti sn ca BCKT. T Bo co kt qu hot ng kinh doanh (BCKQHKD), c th ly cc s liu sau: Li nhun trc thu. Chi ph gm tt c cc chi ph trong BCKQHKD tr cc chi ph thu, chi ph li v cc chi ph tng t. S liu v t l vn nc ngoi ca ngn hng c th xem trc tip t cc website ca cc ngn hng thng mi.

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3.3. Cu trc d kin ca bo co kt qu 1. t vn , gii thiu ti nghin cu Gii thiu lnh vc ca ti nghin cu Nu l do chn ti Tc gi cc nghin cu trc y c lin quan 2. Tng quan ti liu v c s l thuyt Gii thiu nghin cu ca A. Demirguc-Kunt v H. Huizinga. Tm tt m hnh hi quy do A. Demirguc-Kunt v H. Huizinga xut. Trnh by m hnh c s dng trong bi vit. 3. Phng php nghin cu ng dng m hnh hi quy a bin phn tch tc ng ca cc yu t n kh nng sinh li ca cc ngn hng thng mi Vit Nam. Phng php ng dng phn mm Microsoft Excel 2007 v Eview 5.0. Thu thp d liu t cc bo co ti chnh cc ngn hng thng mi. 4. Kt qu nghin cu Phn tch kt qu t m hnh v a ra nhn xt. 5. Kt lun v kin ngh Ti liu tham kho Ph lc S liu cc bin ca m hnh Kt qu m hnh

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Ti liu tham kho

Asli Demirguc-Kunt and Harry Huizinga, 1998, Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability: Some International Evidence, Policy Research Working Paper WPS 1900, World Bank. Asli Demirguc-Kunt and Harry Huizinga, 2000, Financial Structure and Bank Profitability, Policy Research Working Paper No. 2430, World Bank. Website ca cc ngn hng thng mi Vit Nam (Ph lc 1)

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Ph lc 1: Danh sch cc ngn hng thng mi Vit Nam c nghin cu Tn vit tt BIDV MHB AgriBank OCB ACB DaiABank DAB SeABank Oceanbank FCB ABBank GDB MSB Techcombank KienLongBank NAB NaViBank VPBank HBB HDBank MB WesternBank VIB SCB Saigonbank Tn y Ngn hng u t v Pht trin Vit Nam Website www.bidv.com.vn

Ngn hng thng mi c phn v nh nc Ngn hng Pht trin Nh ng bng sng www.mhb.com.vn Cu Long Ngn hng Nng nghip v Pht trin www.agribank.com.vn Nng Thn Ngn hng Phng ng www.ocb.com.vn Ngn hng Chu Ngn hng i Ngn hng ng Ngn hng ng Nam Ngn hng i Dng Ngn hng Nht Ngn hng An Bnh Ngn hng Gia nh Ngn hng Hng Hi Vit Nam Ngn hng K Thng Vit Nam Ngn hng Kin Long Ngn hng Nam Ngn hng Nam Vit Ngn hng Vit Nam Thnh Vng Ngn hng Nh H Ni Ngn hng Pht Trin Nh TP. HCM Ngn hng Qun i Ngn hng Phng Ty Ngn hng Quc T Ngn hng Si Gn Ngn hng Si Gn Cng Thng www.acb.com.vn www.daiabank.com.vn www.dongabank.com.vn www.seabank.com.vn www.oceanbank.vn www.ficombank.com.vn www.abbank.vn www.giadinhbank.com.vn www.msb.com.vn www.techcombank.com.vn www.kienlongbank.com.vn www.nab.com.vn www.navibank.com.vn www.vpb.com.vn www.habubank.com.vn www.hdbank.com.vn www.mcsb.com.vn www.westernbank.vn www.vib.com.vn www.scb.com.vn www.saigonbank.com.vn

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Sacombank SHB TinNghiaBank VAB BVB PGBank EIB LienVietBank Vietcombank MDB Trustbank VietinBank HSBC SHBVN IVB

Ngn hng Si Gn Thng Tn Ngn hng Si Gn H Ni Ngn hng Vit Nam Tn Ngha Ngn hng Vit Ngn hng Bo Vit Ngn hng Xng du Petrolimex Ngn hng Xut nhp khu Ngn hng Bu in Lin Vit Ngn hng Ngoi Thng Ngn hng Pht Trin M Kng Ngn hng i Tn Ngn hng Cng Thng Vit Nam Ngn hng HSBC Vit Nam Ngn hng Shinhan Vit Nam Ngn hng Indovina

www.sacombank.com www.shb.com.vn www.tinnghiabank.vn www.vietabank.com.vn www.baovietbank.vn www.pgbank.com.vn www.eximbank.com.vn www.lienvietpostbank.com.vn www.tpb.com.vn www.vietcombank.com.vn www.mdb.com.vn www.trustbank.com.vn www.vietinbank.vn www.hsbc.com.vn www.shinhan.com.vn www.indovinabank.com.vn

TienPhongBank Ngn hng Tin Phong

Ngn hng thng mi nc ngoi v lin doanh ti Vit Nam

Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danh_sch_ngn_hng_ti_Vit_Nam

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Ph lc 2: Bng s liu cc bin trong m hnh

Bin Ngn hng BIDV MHB AgriBank OCB ACB DaiABank DAB SeABank Oceanbank FCB ABBank GDB MSB Techcombank KienLongBank NAB NaViBank VPBank HBB HDBank MB WesternBank VIB SCB Saigonbank Sacombank SHB TinNghiaBank VAB BVB PGBank Bin ph thuc KNSL .0126 .0022 .0058 .0204 .0151 .0112 .0153 .0150 .0125 .0178 .0168 .0091 .0132 .0183 .0205 .0127 .0105 .0139 .0158 .0102 .0209 .0072 .0112 .0074 .0518 .0168 .0129 .0111 .0144 .0129 .0179 VCP/ TTS* .0817 .0809 .0481 .2475 .0678 .4554 .1275 .1877 .1210 .2994 .1747 .6241 .0991 .1014 .4312 .1988 .1082 .1366 .1208 .1233 .1287 .2022 .1164 .0864 .2960 .1348 .1523 .2448 .2147 .2267 .2086 TCV/ TTS .8373 .7119 .8097 .8095 .5872 .7535 .7378 .6092 .6564 .5695 .7298 .7786 .5375 .6597 .6906 .5518 .7369 .8375 .6842 .5872 .7454 .5263 .7094 .6191 .7308 .6751 .7003 .6287 .6359 .7244 .7675 Bin c lp NH TSKL/ TTS .0184 .0196 .0244 .0669 .0582 .0287 .1363 .0099 .0071 .0296 .0276 .0191 .0132 .0354 .0352 .0606 .0443 .0247 .0153 .0307 .0191 .0625 .0176 .0608 .0423 .1038 .0339 .0220 .1156 .0148 .0210 TG/ TTS .7453 .6980 .7828 .6625 .6585 .5373 .6370 .7184 .8782 .6995 .7864 .6228 .7108 .7208 .6364 .6781 .8008 .8701 .7012 .6177 .7540 .7365 .7209 .7423 .6910 .6152 .7624 .7742 .6471 .7517 .8507 CP/ TTS .0229 .0186 .0322 .0157 .0656 .0212 .0205 .0117 .0123 .0109 .0208 .0160 .0101 .0160 .0177 .0163 .0164 .0358 .0349 .0110 .0175 .0176 .0170 .0230 .0210 .0210 .0183 .0121 .0164 .0136 .0266 VNN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 T DT/TGNH * TG/TTS .0917 .0636 .4819 .0599 .0520 .0440 .1834 .0538 .0152 .0518 .0893 .0081 .0104 .0400 .1133 .0156 .1013 .0811 .0031 .0490 .0164 .2950 .0341 .1271 .0836 .0897 .0317 .2229 .0904 .0390 .0297

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EIB LienVietBank TienPhongBank Vietcombank MDB Trustbank VietinBank HSBC SHBVN IVB

.0181 .0217 .0102 .0178 .0123 .0153 .0125 .0294 .0407 .0156

.2064 .2364 .2980 .0810 .3052 .3817 .0745 .1205 .7470 .2979

.7156 .4373 .3954 .8156 .6515 .6606 .7680 .8992 .4842 .8907

.0572 .0127 .0149 .0222 .0037 .0681 .0166 .0136 .0071 .0234

.6980 .7059 .7067 .8595 .7640 .7137 .6554 .8730 .5443 .7209

.0116 .0166 .0134 .0218 .0050 .0135 .0289 .0342 .0166 .0135

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1

.0320 .0475 .0830 .0806 .0060 .0938 .0590 .0596 .0156 .0584

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