P. 1
Norwegian Study Finds Limited Warming from Doubled Greenhouse Gases

Norwegian Study Finds Limited Warming from Doubled Greenhouse Gases

|Views: 74,457|Likes:
Published by Andrew Revkin
A new analysis of the likely warming from a doubled concentration of greenhouse gases (compared to the level just preceding the industrial revolution) comes in far lower than the findings of most other research efforts and the conclusions of the last IPCC report.

The analysis will be closely scrutinized by other modeling groups and climate scientists.

The conclusion is close to that of Michael Schlesinger of the University of Illinois, whose work was discussed on Dot Earth last year: A Climate Scientist Proposes a 'Fair Plan' for Limiting Warming http://nyti.ms/WGdJrm

Here's more on the new analysis from the Research Council of Norway, which funded the work:

“In our project we have worked on finding out the overall effect of all known feedback mechanisms,” says project manager Terje Berntsen, who is a professor at the University of Oslo’s Department of Geosciences and a senior research fellow at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO). The project has received funding from the Research Council of Norway’s Large-scale Programme on Climate Change and its Impacts in Norway (NORKLIMA).

“We used a method that enables us to view the entire earth as one giant ‘laboratory’ where humankind has been conducting a collective experiment through our emissions of greenhouse gases and particulates, deforestation, and other activities that affect climate.”

For their analysis, Professor Berntsen and his colleagues entered all the factors contributing to human-induced climate forcings since 1750 into their model. In addition, they entered fluctuations in climate caused by natural factors such as volcanic eruptions and solar activity. They also entered measurements of temperatures taken in the air, on ground, and in the oceans.

The researchers used a single climate model that repeated calculations millions of times in order to form a basis for statistical analysis. Highly advanced calculations based on Bayesian statistics were carried out by statisticians at the Norwegian Computing Center.

2000 figures make the difference
When the researchers at CICERO and the Norwegian Computing Center applied their model and statistics to analyse temperature readings from the air and ocean for the period ending in 2000, they found that climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration will most likely be 3.7°C, which is somewhat higher than the IPCC prognosis.

But the researchers were surprised when they entered temperatures and other data from the decade 2000-2010 into the model; climate sensitivity was greatly reduced to a “mere” 1.9°C.

Professor Berntsen says this temperature increase will first be upon us only after we reach the doubled level of CO2 concentration (compared to 1750) and maintain that level for an extended time, because the oceans delay the effect by several decades.

Read the rest here: http://j.mp/norwclimsens
A new analysis of the likely warming from a doubled concentration of greenhouse gases (compared to the level just preceding the industrial revolution) comes in far lower than the findings of most other research efforts and the conclusions of the last IPCC report.

The analysis will be closely scrutinized by other modeling groups and climate scientists.

The conclusion is close to that of Michael Schlesinger of the University of Illinois, whose work was discussed on Dot Earth last year: A Climate Scientist Proposes a 'Fair Plan' for Limiting Warming http://nyti.ms/WGdJrm

Here's more on the new analysis from the Research Council of Norway, which funded the work:

“In our project we have worked on finding out the overall effect of all known feedback mechanisms,” says project manager Terje Berntsen, who is a professor at the University of Oslo’s Department of Geosciences and a senior research fellow at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO). The project has received funding from the Research Council of Norway’s Large-scale Programme on Climate Change and its Impacts in Norway (NORKLIMA).

“We used a method that enables us to view the entire earth as one giant ‘laboratory’ where humankind has been conducting a collective experiment through our emissions of greenhouse gases and particulates, deforestation, and other activities that affect climate.”

For their analysis, Professor Berntsen and his colleagues entered all the factors contributing to human-induced climate forcings since 1750 into their model. In addition, they entered fluctuations in climate caused by natural factors such as volcanic eruptions and solar activity. They also entered measurements of temperatures taken in the air, on ground, and in the oceans.

The researchers used a single climate model that repeated calculations millions of times in order to form a basis for statistical analysis. Highly advanced calculations based on Bayesian statistics were carried out by statisticians at the Norwegian Computing Center.

2000 figures make the difference
When the researchers at CICERO and the Norwegian Computing Center applied their model and statistics to analyse temperature readings from the air and ocean for the period ending in 2000, they found that climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration will most likely be 3.7°C, which is somewhat higher than the IPCC prognosis.

But the researchers were surprised when they entered temperatures and other data from the decade 2000-2010 into the model; climate sensitivity was greatly reduced to a “mere” 1.9°C.

Professor Berntsen says this temperature increase will first be upon us only after we reach the doubled level of CO2 concentration (compared to 1750) and maintain that level for an extended time, because the oceans delay the effect by several decades.

Read the rest here: http://j.mp/norwclimsens

More info:

Categories:Types, Research
Published by: Andrew Revkin on Jan 26, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

07/10/2013

pdf

text

original

CLIMSENS: Constraining total feedback of the climate system by observations and models.

Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie

Terje Berntsen Gunnar Myhre Magne Aldrin Marit Holden

CICERO and University of Oslo CICERO Norwegian Computer Center Norwegian Computer Center

Climate sensitivity:
The equilibrium change in the annual mean global surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration.

IPCC 2007

2

Constraining the climate sensitivity
• “Bottom-up” approach. Perturbing the
representations of the climate feedbacks in GCM models. historical observations and simple climate models

• “Observational based” approach. Using

3

ΔQ = ΔF - λ ΔT
ΔQ: ΔF: λ: Heat flux in the system Radiative forcing Climate Feedback Parameter

At equilibrium: ΔQ = 0, λ = ΔF2xCO2 / ΔT2xCO2eq

4

Detailed RF calculations:
Emissions Oslo CTM2 model RF-calculations

Tropospheric ozone and aerosols

ΔF

IPCC 2007

5

A simple climate model:

Energy balance model/Upwelling Diffusion Ocean

ΔQ
Unit m 2 cm /sec m/yr 2 W/(m K) 2 W/(m K) 2 W/(m K) 2 K/(Wm ) Value 60 0.634 0.4 4.0 16.0 3.5 0.0 0.8

Structure of the model Parametre:
Name Mixed layer depth Vertical heat diffusivity Polar parameter Vertical velocity, upwelling rate Air-sea heat exchange parameter Oceanic interhemispheric heat exchange coeff. Atmospheric interhemispheric heat exchange coeff. Climate sensitivity

Schlesinger et al. (1992)

6

Observations
• Surface temperature • Ocean heat content

ΔT

Levitus, GRL 2009

IPCC 2007
7

Statistical model:

The data: Surface temperature (3 data set, NH and SH averages). Ocean heat content

Additative bias/correction for baseline SOI index, Account for El Nino.

8

Statistical model
Bayesian approach and a MCMC-algorithm: 1. Apriori distributions for parameters and input data. 2. Update your model with observations. 3. Get posteriori uncertainties for your model parameters and input data. One of them is the climate sensitivity!

9

λ

IPCC 2007

10

What’s new?
• Improved representation of the radiative
forcing history

• Longer time period with observations

11

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
scribd
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->