Professional Documents
Culture Documents
An Introduction
It will examine
size how they work
Bank lending
International bank lending can occur for many reasons
domestic banks lend to private firms abroad who are making real investments domestic banks purchase foreign financial instruments, if return is higher than at home foreign banks may borrow from domestic banks to have working balances of domestic currency
Bank lending
Table 1 (coming up) shows total bank lending from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) (http://www.bis.org) BIS acts as a clearinghouse for central bank settlements, deals with international banking matters, and promotes international financial cooperation
(1) Total cross-border bank claims (2) Local claims in foreign currency
(3) Gross international bank lending (4) Minus: Interbank deposits (5) Net international bank lending
$14,944.3 2,147.1
17,091.4 10,486.4 6,605.0
The eurocurrency market is the market for currencies outside the home country. (ex. British bank lending dollars)
Eurocurrency Market
Historically, this was the Eurodollar market because it was based on US dollars in European banks US dollars came to be important in Europe in the 1950s, (after WWII, during the Cold War between US and the Soviet Union) Soviet Union shifted its dollar accounts out of US to Britain in case US decided to seize the money Britain had currency controls on British pounds US dollars were not controlled US had controls on interest rates that could be paid to depositors, these didnt apply to British banks with US dollars
Eurocurrency Market
Also, in 1960s, US introduced policies that increased demand for Eurodollars
Federal Reserve introduced lending guidelines to discourage loans to foreigners, also taxed these loans Vietnam war caused US to tighten money supply at home, and so, US dollars were cheaper to borrow in Europe than in US
Eurocurrency Market
On the supply side
Oil shock! 1973-74.. OPEC quadrupled oil prices, which were denominated in dollars, OPEC countries (wisely for the time) deposited dollars in European banks
In sum a lot of dollars have been deposited and loaned in Europe. And now, a lot of various currencies are deposited and loaned in other countries.
Eurocurrency Market
Like all bank deposits, Eurocurrency increases with the multiple-deposit expansion process
An initial $1 million dollar deposit in a Eurobank can become $10 million in deposits with a 10% reserve. $1 million deposited -> $0.9 mil loaned, deposited again $0.9 million deposited -> $0.81 mil loaned Final result $1 mil / 0.1 = $10 million
Eurocurrency Market
The rate of interest on loans is based on the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) LIBOR is found by an average of the rate of interest that major banks are using when lending money to each other Other parties can borrow at a rate that is above LIBOR Note: international banks dealing in loans in foreign currency are still sometimes called eurobanks even though it may be a Carribean bank loaning yen.
Eurocurrency Market
The effect of eurocurrency markets is that international financial transactions are very easy. They have also encouraged the relaxation of barriers to capital flows (since such a barrier will simply encourage this market) There are concerns though, because the central bank of an issuing country has no control over eurocurrency, and so it can increase home market instability. This is a bigger concern for the US, because its currency is a major part of the Eurocurrency market.
Bonds will also have interest payments, or a coupon rate which are usually paid yearly.
For example, a $1,000 bond paying 5% coupon rate will yield an annual payment of $50.
Price of European bonds fell in US (interest rate higher) so US people would buy them lenders issued bonds in Europe
Country
Germany Japan US
75-79
1.6 % 0.6 % 1.9 %
80-89
7.3 % 9.7 % 6.7 %
1999
83.4 % 29.1 % 53.1 %
Country
Germany Japan US
75-79
1.6 % 0.6 % 1.9 %
80-89
7.3 % 9.7 % 6.7 %
1999
83.4 % 29.1 % 53.1 %
International Stocks
Developing countries are becoming more important as issuers of international stocks as their governments open their economies. Most (not all) showed significant gains in their stock price indices through 2003. Example (in dollar terms):
China - 8.4 % Indonesia 117.2 % Mexico 26.2 % - Chile - India - Peru 50.2 % 88.3 % 107.8 %
International Stocks
The statement that international financial flows are not going to developing countries during this surge in internationalization is not entirely exact. There is money flowing south, just not a lot compared to the vast amounts flowing between developed countries.
This can lead to increased volatility in markets if one market has high stock prices,
people should lower demand, but if the expectation is that prices will rise even higher, demand increases, driving prices higher
Sooner or later, the underlying value of companies will cause soaring markets to fall, or help languishing markets recover. (usually)
Then, the international purchase of stocks would push yields toward convergence,
where stocks with similar risks in different countries have the same return
International Markets
There are costs and opportunities with the growth of these international markets International stock market, bond market and currency markets can all serve to help funds move to where they can be best used. These markets
can lead to convergence of returns across the world for investments with similar risks can lead to wild swings due to bandwagon effects can encourage more freedom in international transactions.
Review
What can we learn from previous surges in international finance? What is a eurocurrency? What is the difference between a eurobond and a foreign bond? Name and explain the four types of mutual funds.
Financial Linkages
In the last chapter, we looked at financial linkages between exchange rates and interest rates in various markets. We now have (at least) two more markets where these links can be observed. Given our example of US and London markets, we can add
US dollar market in London (eurodollar) British market in US. (eurosterling market)
Financial linkages
First, lets recap what we learned about the markets in Chapter 20. Remember the domestic investor who is considering international investments must consider
1. the domestic rate of return 2. the foreign rate of return 3. expected changes in the exchange rate
Financial linkages
The parity condition without consideration of exchange rate risk was: (1+ ihome)/(1+iforeign) = E(e)/e
We had set xa = 1 + E(e)/e then showed that the above could be written as (ihome - iforeign)/(1+iforeign) = xa which could be approximated by (ihome - iforeign) = xa
Financial linkages
The parity condition without (ihome - iforeign) = xa states that equilibrium occurs in the international financial market when the difference in interest rates is offset by the expected appreciation of the foreign currency Because xa is an estimate, if actors are risk-averse, we replace this condition with: (ihome - iforeign) = xa - RP
Financial linkages
The parity condition without (ihome - iforeign) = xa - RP states that equilibrium occurs in the international financial market when the difference in interest rates is offset by the expected appreciation of the foreign currency less a risk premium for this investment If RP is the risk premium for expected exchange rate risk, and this risk can be covered in the forward market, we have the equivalence of two conditions. (ihome - iforeign) = p = xa - RP
Financial linkages
Now let us consider the financial markets with the inclusion of eurocurrencies We now have 6 prices to consider: Interest rates:
U.S. interest rate (in US) U.K. interest rate (in UK) eurodollar interest rate eurosterling interest rate
Exchange rates:
spot rate (dollars/pound) forward exchange rate (dollars/pound)
1. Maturity mismatching
To hedge against a change in interest rate, a financial institution can acquire two or more financial contracts whose maturities overlap. Borrow short term and deposit long term to lock in current interest rate for later deposit Deposit short term and borrow long term to lock in current interest rate for later loan.
1. Maturity mismatching
Example 1: Firm is getting $100,000 in three months and needs to pay $100,000 in six months. Manager is worried interest rate will fall by 3 months and wants to lock in current interest rate for last 3 months.
Firm can borrow $100,000 for 3 months and deposit it now for six months.
This way firm gets current interest rate on savings. Cost is difference between deposit and loan rate for first 3 months.
1. Maturity mismatching
Example 2: Firm is loaning money in 4 months for an 8 month period. Manager is worried interest rate will rise by 4 months and wants to acquire funds for loan at current interest.
Firm can borrow $100,000 for 12 months and deposit it now for 4 months.
This way firm gets current interest rate on funds, and can loan it at expected higher future interest rate.
Mr. Brown has a eurodollar loan. He is paying sixmonth LIBOR+30 basis points. They swap interest rates. If interest rates fall, Smith gets the lower floating rate. If they rise, Brown now has a fixed rate loan. If they fall and look like they will rise, Smith can swap again for a new, lower, fixed rate.
A borrower can guard against a rise in interest rate by selling a futures contract expiring at the point where they will be borrowing funds. The margin account earnings would in essence hedge against the interest rate rising.
this is called a short hedge.
If interest rates are expected to fall, the premium will be higher than if they are expected to rise.
If interest rates are expected to rise, the premium will be higher than if they are expected to fall.
7. Options on swaps
As financial instruments, caps were very successful. The market next introduced options on swaps It is, as the name implies, an option to swap interest rates purchaser of a call option to swap (swaption) has the right to receive a fixed rate in a swap and pay a floating rate.
purchaser will exercise option if fixed rate is above floating rate
7. Options on swaps
purchaser of a put option to swap (swaption) has the right to pay a fixed rate in a swap and receive a floating rate.
purchaser will exercise option if fixed rate is above floating rate
7. Options on swaps
You can also buy the option to cancel a swap
call option (callable swap)
side paying the fixed rate and receiving the floating rate can cancel swap
They can also participate in market to make profits from other investors wishes to alter risk exposure
Exchange rate traded instruments are traded on organized exchanges, like the CME
Loan syndicates
In a direct loan syndicate the syndicate banks are making the loan themselves. They are colenders In a loan participation syndicate the lead bank executes the loan with the borrower and syndicates the loan by entering into agreements with other banks By syndicating a loan, a bank reduces its risk exposure banks share risk and return.
Recap
This chapter has taken us from the establishment of the Eurodollar market to the range of international financial derivatives With Eurodollars, market adjustments can help coordinate prices in 6 markets (2 exchange rate markets, 4 interest rate markets)
Recap
1. 2. 3.
4.
We introduced 8 international financial derivatives maturity mismatching borrow and loan for different periods future rate agreements forward purchase of fixed rate loan eurodollar interest rate swaps swapping fixed or flexible loan, or floating based on LIBOR with different based interest rate eurodollar cross-currency interest rate swaps #3 with different currencies involved
Recap
We introduced 8 international financial derivatives 5. eurodollar interest rate futures Set future purchases on margins in recognized exchanges ($1 mil basis point margins) 6. eurodollar interest rates options (options on forward interest rates) 7. options on swaps (just what it says) 8. equity financial derivatives
Next Chapter
In the next chapter, we start on the economic theory of the financial markets It is, necessarily, simple compared to the myriad of instruments that can be traded It starts to try to explain the why of exchange rate and BoP movements.