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Business Plan - Venture in Indian Energy Market
Business Plan - Venture in Indian Energy Market
S. Ghosh
J. Abdollahzadeh
S. Davari
Aryan Energy Consulting is an imaginary company. Any resemblance with any company is purely co-
incidental. All the information used in this Business Plan is either from secondary sources or estimates
using our business knowledge. We have not used any non-public information of any company.
Contents
Disclaimer ........................................................................................................................................................ 2
Contents ........................................................................................................................................................... 2
Exit Strategy..................................................................................................................................................... 9
Marketing Strategy......................................................................................................................................... 10
Appendix-I ..................................................................................................................................................... 17
Chart-1 ....................................................................................................................................................... 17
Chart-2 ....................................................................................................................................................... 18
Map-1 ......................................................................................................................................................... 19
Appendix-II .................................................................................................................................................... 21
Appendix-III................................................................................................................................................... 21
Appendix-V.................................................................................................................................................... 23
This Business Plan is written to structure the strategic plan of Calgary based EPCM company Aryan
Energy Consultants’ (AEC) probable venture into Indian EPC market.
AEC prides to have world class project management capabilities developed in-house and specialty know
how of Natural Gas production process. Due course of years AEC has created knowledge base of
Construction Management processes specifically for Natural Gas & Energy sector.
Our Mission is to be world renowned consultants in Energy & Construction sector providing cutting edge
project planning, engineering and process improvement services to the words biggest energy companies.
Our guiding principles are commitment to service and excellence.
Current Opportunity
Indian Energy sector is AEC’s first overseas venture. The major reasons for choosing India as the target
market are –
1. Booming Indian construction market with expected INR1 17.1 Trillion (CAD2 328 Billion)3 in next
5 years. (Shyamal, Jalan, & Ajmera, 2011)
2. Potential Government spending in Natural Gas sector and latest decision of Government of India to
de-regulate Indian Natural Gas sector. (Shyamal, Jalan, & Ajmera, 2011)
3. Interest of Indian EPC players to enter into JV given the inefficiencies in executing construction
projects. (Shyamal, Jalan, & Ajmera, 2011)
1
Indian Currency
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2
Canadian Dollar
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Projection of Business Future
Although AEC is entering Indian energy market keeping the spending boom in near future, it wants to
develop the Indian business as a long term subsidiary. But the final decision on the future of the subsidiary
will be taken during 2020-21 fiscal year at the end of the 12th Five Year plan.
Financial Summary
i. Total amount of funds sought for venture: CAD 78,000
ii. Total amount of projected av. monthly operating expenses: CAD 13,000
Market Analysis
Growth of EPC sector is directly linked with spending on infrastructure. In the 12th 5 year plan total
spending is planned to be INR 40.99 Trillion or CAD 788 billion. This spending translates to INR 17.1
Trillion (CAD 328 Billion) in 5 years of Construction work. Refer “Appendix-I. Chart1” INR 656 Billion
(CAD 12.6 Billion) will be spent for Construction of Oil & Gas pipelines and INR 4,780 B (CAD 92
billion) will be spent for construction in Energy sector. (Shyamal, Jalan, & Ajmera, 2011)
Spending on infrastructure is doubled in 12th 5 year plan from 11th 4 year plan. Refer “Appendix-I. Chart2”
for sector wise increase from 11th 5 year plan. Although investment in Energy sector is reduced in percent
terms investment in Natural Gas sector is increased. This mean increased construction of pipelines and
greater opportunity for AE.
According to International Energy Association (IEA) domestic demand for Natural Gas will increase to
190 bcm in 2035 from 59 bcm in 2010 (CAGR4 6%). Demand for petroleum products are expected to
increase by CAGR 4.6%. Even though India is facing increase in demand and has significant reserve of
Natural Gas, absence of proper technologies and execution skill resulting insufficient oil & gas production.
India is already a major importer of crude oil & gas and imports 73% of its demand. According to IEA this
figure will be 92% in 2035. (PwC Pv. Ltd., 2012).
Target customers for AEC are state owned developers such as ONGC, OIL , GAIL and private companies
such as RIL.
3
For all number in this report, CAD = 52 INR
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4
Cumulative Average Growth Rate
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Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.(ONGC) : CAD 15.6 B revenue in 2011-12. 67% Revenue
from Crude Oil, 22% from Natural Gas & rest from derivatives. (ONGC Annual Report, 2011-12)
Oil India Ltd (OIL) : CAD 2.2 B revenue in 2011-12. Source of revenue are Crude oil, Natural
Gas, Drilling Operations & LPG production. (OIL Annual Report, 2011-12)
GAIL India Ltd. : CAD 7.9 B revenue in 2011-12. 78% Sales from sale of Natural Gas, 4% from
LPG, 4% from derivatives, rest combinedly from CNG, Power, LPG transmission and Telecom.
Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) : CAD 65.3 B revenue in 2011-12. 78% of the revenue comes
from Refining, 20% from Petrochemicals and rest from Oil & Gas. Controls the single largest
source of domestic Natural Gas in India, KG-6 basin. Supplies 35% of total domestic demand.
(RIL Annual Report, 2011-12).
The players in Energy sector are domestic players such as BHEL, Thermax, L&T, Tata Projects,KEC
International, Kalpatru- JMC,Lanco Infratech, BGR Energy and foreighn players such as Doosan,
Dongfang, Siemens, Bechtel, Hitachi, Thermax &Ansaldo. Our target customer in Energy sector are the
domestic players because they need world class project management processes to be competitive in the
market. (Shyamal, Jalan, & Ajmera, 2011)
One of the major challenges indian Natural Gas industry is facing is with absence of country wide
pipelines. Refer “Appendix-I. Map1”. Historically western regions were source of Natural Gas. As a result
most of the pipelines were built in that region. A vast of area of eastern and northern Indian is not covered
by pipelines. Contrast to developed courtiers only a small part (35%) of oil & gas is transported through
pipelines. Recognizing that pipelines are the most efficient, environment friendly and safe mode of
transferring oil & gas, and Indian government is taking decisions for faster approval of pipeline projects.
This creates an opportunity for AE. (PwC Pv. Ltd., 2012)
On the other hand India faces energy deficit of 10% .Average per capita consumption of energy in India is
mere 478kWh (2010) compared with world average of 2,300 kWh. The average per capita consunmtion is
increasing by 1.3% CAGR (India population growth rate is 1.3%). That gives a growth in demand of
2.62%. (PwC Pv. Ltd., 2012)
Competitive Analysis
The EPC market in India is shared by many large, medium, and small scale companies.
Major players are L&T- ECC, Shapoorji Poolanji (S&P), Punj Loyd, HCC, Tata Projects etc. Appendix-II
describes the details of the competitors. It is clear although there are some big players in the market,
majority of players don’t have prior experience in Natural Gas pipelines construction and lack project
management capabilities. In our analysis we found that L&T-ECC has complementary skills of AEC
which makes it the suitable JV partner. Refer ‘Appendix-III’ for the ‘Strategy Canvas’.
Target Niche
Considering AEC’s specialty know how in Natural
Gas sector we are targeting the Oil & Gas pipeline
construction as a JV partner with a major Indian
player such as L&T –ECC. We can also tap some
value from our Energy consultant capability
advising other Energy sector players. Refer to the
“Role Matrix”. Our target is ‘Contractor’ for Natural
Gas sector and ‘PMC (Project Management
Consultant)’ for whole Energy market.
Entry Barriers
EPC and consulting both gain customers through reference. Also to carry out project execution AEC needs
strong network in India to find out suppliers. There are also some legal issues. 100% Foreign Direct
Investment is allowed in both Oil & Gas & Energy sector through automatic route. Refer (Automatic
Route of RBI , 2012) for details. But Foreign companies can start Indian operation through 3 ways
(Consulate General of India, Toronto):
1. Liaison Office (LO)/ Representative Office: Acts as a channel of communication between the foreign
company and Indian companies and can be used to collect market information. LO is not authorized to
earn any income directly or indirectly. Authorization from ‘Reserve Bank of India’ is required. The parent
To be eligible for Branch Office in India the parent company must have 3 years of profit making track
record and minimum USD 50 K net worth. (Establishment of Branch Office/Liaison Office in India by
Foreign Entities, 2012)
Tentative location for the ‘Branch office’ is Vadodara or Baroda. This place is near to all the major Gas
Pipeline origins (Appendix-I. Map1). Baroda is also the centre of a major industrial hub. This will make
finding suppliers easier.
We are planning to complete the application for ‘Branch Office’ to RBI by first week of January 2013.
We are planning to start the search for JV partner in December 2012 and deciding on JV partner by March
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5
K= 1000
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2013. Creation of JV is targeted by October 2013.
To decide on JV partner we will match the strength and weakness of all the players with AES. A
preliminary analysis shows that Larsen & Toubro Ltd. has the complementary skill of AES. That makes
L&T the first choice for JV partner. Refer ‘Appendix – III’. But the final decision will depend upon
willingness and negotiation.
Exit Strategy
Strategic Checkpoints
2015 2020
Economy Economy
Is the spending as expected?
Will considerable (at least 75% of yearly
Is the inflation in control? spending of 5 year plan) spending in Oil &
Gas is continued after 2020?
Regulations
Regulations
Will the foreign investment rules be same in
Oil & Gas? Will the foreign investment rules be same in
Oil & Gas?
Performance
Performance
Is our reputation is in the top 3 in the Natural
Gas construction market? Is our reputation is in the top 3 in the Natural
Gas construction market?
Are we tapping at least 0.015% of the market
or we in a position to achieve it in near future? Are we tapping at least 0.015% of the market
or we in a position to achieve it in near future?
Is our relation with JV partner is well
balanced? Is this a happy married life ? Is our relation with JV partner is well
balanced? Is this a happy married life ?
Sell share to JV Partner: While creating the Joint Venture contracts this term should be kept in
mind. In the best case the terms of sell-off to JV partner should be decided while creating the JV. This
strategy is useful when we can find a better investment opportunity and JV partner values the JV for its
building its core capability. We can get a better price for our share in the JV.
Sell to Competitor: This could be the most profitable. But most likely JV partner will keep some
terms to avoid this situation. This option provides a better negotiation ground with the JV partner in case
of selling the share to JV partner.
Marketing Strategy
As our services are B2B7, networking and promotion through conferences and seminars will be most
effective. Keeping that in mind we are targeting “Indian Petrochemical Focus” and “LNG India
Conference”.
6
Foreign Direct Investment
7
Business to business
Pricing Strategy
We are targeting to place AEC as a premium brand in Indian Oil & Gas. Pricing of our Consulting
services will be 7-10% higher than the available rates in India. The extra cost for the customer will be
compensated by extended ‘Hand- Holding’ during the execution phase of the projects training of key
executives. Pricing data for the consulting firms are not easily available and we need to consult with the
prospective clients to reach a preferred rate.
To gain market share it is very important for AEC to allocate sufficient funds for marketing expenses. As
our customers are all Business customers our out Brand Positioning should be of Quality and delivery.
We are planning to reach our customers with following ways of promotion:
Operations Plan
As we already discussed a ‘Branch Office’ will be set-up at Baroda, Gujarat and the office will start
functioning during mid June 2013. To start the facility in India we will need to send a Calgary bases
Senior Manger to India. He will be responsible for recruitment of staff for Baroda office, networking
with customers and executing consulting projects (if we are successful in getting any project) with the
help of Calgary office. The Baroda office should be made fully operational by end of 2013.
Organizational Structure:
Purchasers Analysts
Financial Plan
Feasibility Study:
One time Capital Expenses:
Promotion : CAD 25,000
Rent Advance : CAD 30,000
Furniture & Set-up Cost : CAD 15,000
Recruitment Cost : CAD 5,000
8
Multi-national Company
9
In first year of operation salary of the Calgary based Senior Manager will increase the overall cost.
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10
Salary & Rent values are collected from internet – Websites such as Glass door, leasingindia.com etc.
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Expenses to RBI permission : CAD 3,000
According to E&Y, EBITDA is 13.7% of Revenue for India EPC companies .(Shyamal, Jalan, & Ajmera,
2011).
Risk Analysis:
As an emerging market India volatile currency and inflation in India creates financial risk. We should be
aware of that and include the risks in our estimates.
With current financial leverage of AEC, the Cost of Capital of AEC is 10%13.
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11
Cash Flow from Operations
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Country Risk:
Currently Indian currency is rated as Baa3 which results in Country Risk Premium of 3.00% (Damodaran,
2012)
So, Cost of Capital with inclusion of Country risk = (1+10%) x (1+3%) – 1 = 13.3%
Inflation Risk:
As per The World Bank, Inflation is USA = 2.7 % and Inflation for India is = 8.0% (The World Bank,
2012)
So, Inflation adjusted Cost of Capital = 13.3 % X ((1+8.0%)/ (1+2.7%)) = ~ 14%
Discount Rate Considered is 19% considering the risk of Start Up.
Refer Appendix-V. The Net effect of this venture is CAD 258K in present value. The Revenue from
Indian operation will be CAD 1.54 Million by 2020.
Assumptions:
a. EBITDA is 13.7% of Revenue. This is true for Indian EPC companies. (Shyamal, Jalan, & Ajmera,
2011).
c. Excess marketing Expenses is 3% of future revenue target with 1 year to realise sales. This
marketing expenses is to gain market share and an extra cost for AEC.
d. Tax = 42.02%
The graph below shows the growth of Revenue, Unlevered Net Income and CFO14 As we can see Net
Income and CFO do not grow as fast as Revenue because of increasing costs. 3
CFO more or less follows Net Income but later surpasses Net Income due to high depreciation values.
12
Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization
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13
Assumed Value to show the calculations
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Actual Payback Period is 6 years which is a long time. We have to look into cost cutting measures to
attain a payback period of 4 years.
14
Cash Flow from Operation
Skills:
Process Design & Improvement
Estimation & Cost Control
Suman Ghosh
Financial Projection
Project Management Specialist – Oil & Gas Industry
Skills:
Project Management
Scheduling & Supplier Management
J. Abdollahzadeh
Economic Analysis & Budgeting
Facility Engineering and Project – Oil & Gas Industry
Skills:
Facility Engineering and Execution
Ability to manage large crews
Saeed Davari Cost control expertise.
Chart-1
IVRCL Infrastructure Water Supply & Environmental, Transportation, CAD 1.10 B Strong presence in water No pipeline construction
Power & Transmission, Power Generation supply & Infrastructure experience. No
market experience in Natural
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gas extraction.
HCC Engineering & Consruction, Real State, CAD 0.80 B Strong presence in real No pipeline construction
Infrastructure Estate & Infrastructure experience. No
market experience in Natural
gas extraction.
Punj Loyd Offshore & onshore pipelines, utilities, buildings, CAD 1.98 B Strong presence in Oil & Project Management
infrastructure Gas sector
Shapoorji Pallonji EPC for Mineral Processing, Iron & Steel industry, CAD 2.00 B Strong presence In No pipeline construction
Cement, Coal & Gas power plants mineral & iron & steel experience. No
industry experience in Natural
gas extraction.
L&T - ECC Power Plant, Engineering Services, Commissioning CAD 12.5 B Reputed company in No pipeline construction
of Power Plants. India. High Quality. experience. No
Professionally managed experience in Natural
gas extraction.
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Appendix-III
Market Power of Company ‘X’= Revenue of ‘X’ / Combines Revenue of all competitors
Other numbers are estimates based on product portfolios, size of the companies and performance of the
companies. We used the data from previous table
NPV CALCULATION
Discount Rate = 19% NWC %= 8%
2013
2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
(6 Months)
YEAR
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Revenue 0 85 560 756 968 1162 1300 1430 1544
COGS + OP Cost 0 138 483 652 835 1003 1122 1234 1332
Recruitment & RBI Exp. 0 8
Extra marketting Expense 10 17 23 29 35 39 43 46 50
Damodaran, A. (2012, October 18). Country Default Spreads and Risk Premiums. Retrieved from
stern.nyu.edu: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html
Deligate Profile. (2012, October 10). Retrieved from Indian Petrchemical Focus 2012:
http://www.cdmc.org.cn/ipf2012/d-del.asp
Establishment of Branch Office/Liaison Office in India by Foreign Entities. (2012, August 13). Retrieved
from India Briefing: http://www.india-briefing.com/news/establishment-branch-officeliaison-office-india-
foreign-entities-5552.html/
Invest India. (2010). Investment Opportunity: Oil & Gas. Retrieved from Invest India:
http://www.investindia.gov.in/?q=oil-and-gas-sector
PwC Pv. Ltd. (2012). Emerging Opportunities and Challenges - Indian Energy Congress 2012., (p. 55).
Shyamal, S. V., Jalan, S., & Ajmera, H. (2011). Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC):
Driving growth efficiently. Kolkata: Ernst & Young Pvt. Ltd.
The World Bank. (2012, October 18). Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %). Retrieved from
data.worldbank.org: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG