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How Climate Change Is Playing Out in Minnesota
How Climate Change Is Playing Out in Minnesota
Dr. Mark Seeley Extension Climatologist Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate University of Minnesota
Topics to be covered
Perceptions of climate behavior related to infrastructure Evidence of vulnerability Data trends in three climate attributes Character change in precipitation Simultaneous extremes Impacts and consequences
Stationary (1)
Cyclical (2)
Variability (3)
Perceptions of climate behavior are built into the design of our infrastructure (1,3)
Changnon et el
TEMPERATURE: WARMER WITH SEASONALITY AND DIURNAL CYCLE SHIFTS DEWPOINTS: CHANGE IN FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL-LIKE ATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR MOISTURE: AMPLIFIED PRECIPITATION SIGNAL (VARIABILITY), HIGHER FRACTIONAL THUNDERSTORM CONTRIBUTION
Temp trend is upward and more frequently above the 90th percentile
Trends in mean monthly temperatures at Austin, MN 1971-2000 normals vs 1981-2010 normals (F)
Month Min Change January +3.0 February +0.1 March -0.1 April +1.3 May +0.9 June +1.6 July +1.1 August +1.6 September +1.3 October +1.7 November +2.1 December +2.2 Max Change +2.1 +0.2 -0.1 +0.2 -0.8 -0.4 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6 -0.3 +1.7 +1.4 Mean Change +2.5 +0.1 -0.2 +0.7 +0.1 +0.5 +0.7 +1.0 +1.0 +0.7 +1.9 +1.8
Trends in mean monthly temperatures at Willmar 1971-2000 normals vs 1981-2010 normals (F)
Month Min Change January +3.4 February +0.8 March +0.9 April +0.7 May +0.1 June +0.5 July +0.7 August +0.4 September +0.9 October +0.5 November +1.3 December +2.1 Max Change +1.5 +0.9 +1.2 +1.5 -0.1 +0.2 +0.5 +0.7 +1.0 +0.5 +2.3 +1.7 Mean Change +2.9 +0.8 +1.0 +1.1 NC +0.3 +0.6 +0.5 +0.9 +0.5 +1.7 +1.8
TEMPERATURE: WARMER WITH SEASONALITY AND DIURNAL CYCLES SHIFTS DEWPOINTS: SHIFTS IN FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL-LIKE ATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR MOISTURE: AMPLIFIED PRECIPITATION SIGNAL (VARIABILITY), THUNDERSTORM CONTRIBUTION
Frequencies of July tropical dew points (70 F or higher) and associated Heat Index values for the Twin Cities since 1945
Year 1949 1987 1955 1999 1957 2001 1977 1983 1995 2002 2004 2011 2012
Hours with DP of 70 F or greater 223 223 206 192 192 182 160 157 110 305 108 243 186
Range of Heat Index Values (F) 98 - 112 98 - 104 98 - 113 98 115 (116*) 99 114 98 - 110 100 - 108 102 - 110 98 - 116 98 109 98 - 105 98 118 (*134) 99 - 117
1883, 1894, 1901, 1910, 1917, 1921, 1931, 1933, 1934, 1936, 1937, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1955, 1957, 1959, 1964, 1976, 1977, 1983, 1988, 1995,1999, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012
(pattern is episodic but increasing in frequency)
TEMPERATURE: WARMER WITH SEASONALITY AND DIURNAL CYCLES SHIFTS DEWPOINTS: SHIFTS IN FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL-LIKE ATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR MOISTURE: AMPLIFIED PRECIPITATION SIGNAL (VARIABILITY), THUNDERSTORM CONTRIBUTION
Historical recurrence interval of 2 inch rains in northern IA and southern MN is once per year.
Observed 2 inch rainfalls for the period 1991 2012 and maximum single day value for various communities:
Location No. 2 in. rains Maximum Value (date)
Rosemount Albert Lea Waseca Winona Zumbrota Winnebago Bricelyn Amboy Hokah
42 39 43 35 43 41 39 36 33
Shift in Precipitation Recurrence Intervals? Three 1000 year events since 2004 (According to DNRState Climatology Office)
Historic Droughts
(Associated fires)
1829, 1852,
1856
1926, 1929-1934,
1936-1939, 1948, 1954-1956, 1961, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1987, 1988, 1997, 20052006, 2007 2008 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012
Climate Singularity
X = 24 counties included in USDA drought disaster declaration of August 7, 2007 Note: adjacent 32 counties were also eligible for assistance X X X X X= Counties included in federal flood disaster declaration of August 20, 2007 and eligible for FEMA assistance X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X
X X X X
X X
MN Counties designated for federal disaster assistance in 2012 All are associated with drought except those with Which designates for flood or severe storm