Figure 2

Climatic Temperature and Income Partial Associations

Partial Association of Climatic Temperature 19701999 and Income
Natural Logarithm of Real GDP per capita Year 2000, PPPadjusted 2 1 0 1 2 3 Natural Logarithm of Real GDP per capita Year 2000, PPPadjusted 2 1 0 1 2 3
ARE ISR GAB

Partial Association of Climatic Temperature 18901969 and Income

ARE BRN KWT QAT ISR OMN BRB MYS SAU PRI TTO ANT MUS BHR GAB NZL HKG GRC JPN LUX MAC MLT GNQ VEN BRAPAN CRI ITA LBY VCT IRL THA LCA NLD GBRCHL FRA LBN TKM BOL KOR CHE DNK COL AUT LKA ESP CPV IRN EGY DEU BEL TUR URY IDN PRTSUR PNG SWZ ZAFDOM ARGKAZ DJI BWA VUT GIN SLV NOR GUY SVN PHLJAM JOR UZB BLZ CUB FJI TUN HUN BGR NIC PER MEX USA CIVRUS CMR ISL CZE SWEARM BLRSVK ZWEINDNAM AZE HRV ECU GEO ROU MKD IRQ COM UKR DZAGTM PRY POL SEN FIN VNM SYR KGZ MLI STP PAK CAN EST BEN HND SLB ALB WSM LTU MRT GHA CHN COG NGA HTI BGD BFAGMB KEN SDN LVA TGO BIH MAR CAF GNB MDG LAO SLE ETH MDA MOZSOM NPL AGO LSO YEM LBR MWI ZMB KHMERI TZA

BRN SAU BRB MYS OMN ANT

KWT NZL LUX

QAT TTO BHR MLT

PRI JPN

MUS KOR SWZ

VCT BRA ITA THA HKG LCA BOL MAC PAN VEN CRI IRL LBYNLD URY CHE FRAAUT LKA ESP BEL DEU TKM PRT GBR DNK IDN BWA DOM ZAF CHL LBN SVN DJI PHL KAZ IRN CPV COL SUR GIN ARG PNG EGY TUR TUN JAM HUN GUY SLV NOR CZE UZB BLZ CUB BGR VUT JOR CIV BLR SVK PER USA MEX RUS HRV NIC FJI DZA ECU SWE ZWE GTM NAM POL CMR SEN ROU MKD UKR KGZ MLI ARMGEO AZEIRQ IND EST VNM PRY LTU MRT FIN WSM SLBLVA HTI BENPAK ISL SYR STP GHA CHN HND BFA COM ALB NGA CAN LAO KEN GMB MAR BGD COG BIH GNB TGO MDA MDG LSO YEM MOZ CAF ETH SLE SOM MWI AGO ERI ZMB TZA LBR KHM NPL GRC GNQ

SDN

.6

.45

.3

.15 0 .15 Mean Annual Temperature in degrees C 19701999

.3

.45

.6

3 .6

.45

.3

.15 0 .15 Mean Annual Temperature in degrees C 18901969

.3

.45

.6

Natural Logarithm of Real GDP per capita Year 2000, PPPadjusted 2 1 0 1 2 3

HKG MAC USA

ARE QAT BRN KWT PRIBRB OMN ANT SAU ISR BHR TTO LUX MYS GAB MUS MLT CRI IRLVEN FRA ITAVCT JPN NLD GRC GBR LBY PRTBELPAN ESP CHELCA NZL NOR DNK DEU COL GNQ ISL MEX CUB DOM AUT THA BLZ SUR URY BRA ARG SWZ FJI SLV PNG CPV LKA SWE JAMBWA TUNDJI IRN EGY CAN PRY ZAF GUY IDN FIN GTM NICSVN CHL KOR PHL LBN WSM NAM ECU CZE VUT GINTKM DZA PERHUN TUR HRV BGR SVK CMR ZWE JOR SLB IND CIV HNDEST MAR HTI LTU POL BLR VNMMKD LVA COM SEN PAK IRQ MRT ROURUS KAZ AGO BGD GHA BEN AZE UZB KENCOG ALB STP UKR CHN GEO BIH NGA SYR ARM LAO BFA GMB YEM CAF TGO MLI SDN MOZ NPLSOMSLE MDG LSO GNB KGZ ETH MWI TZA ERI ZMB LBR MDA KHM

Natural Logarithm of Real GDP per capita Year 2000, PPPadjusted 2 1 0 1 2 3

.6

.45

.3

.15 0 .15 Mean Annual Temperature in degrees C 18101889

.3

.45

.6

35

Partial Association of Climatic Temperature 18101889 and Income

Partial Association of Climatic Temperature 17301809 and Income

ARE BRN MUS KWT QAT PRI TTO ISR MYS OMNBRB LUX SAU ANT BHR GAB JPN MLTBOL AUT BRA THA ITA KOR CRI CHE HKG VCT GRC IRLPAN BEL GNQLCA NLD VEN NZL MACGBR FRA LBY LKA URY DEU DNK SWZ SVN ESP COLPRT IDN DOM HUN ZAF DJI CPV BWA BLZ CZE SURPHL SLV CHLLBNARG CUBNORSVK TUREGY GIN NIC BLR IRN VUT BGRTUN SWE PNG GUYJAM HRV USA MEX GTM CIV ROU POL JOR UKR DZA FIN TKM EST PER CMR FJI ZWE PRY LTU ECU IND MKD SEN LVA ISL VNM MLI IRQ NAM ALBHND BEN MRT GHA RUS COM STP WSM CAN SDN SLB NGA HTI GEO ARM COG GMB MAR LAO SYRPAK BFA BIH AZE BGD KEN TGOMDA GNB MDG CHN CAF MOZ SLE YEM ETH LSO SOM ERI KHM MWI LBR ZMB NPL AGO TZA

BOL

KAZ UZB KGZ

.6

.45

.3

.15 0 .15 Mean Annual Temperature in degrees C 17301809

.3

.45

.6

The panels depict the partial associations (residual scatterplots) between the listed variables under the specification in regression 2. Plots reflect the Baseline Sample (Outliers Excl.).

Income and temperature in Equation (4.2) (OLS Baseline Sample): Partial regression plots ! Partial Association of Average Temperature 1970-1999 and Income Partial Association of Average Temperature 1890-1969 and Income !!
Natural Logarithm of Real GDP per capita, Year 2000 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Natural Logarithm of Real GDP per capita, Year 2000 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

ARE MUS PRI JPN BHR MYS NZL ANT MLT BOL KOR GAB BRA VCT LBY PAN HKG ITA THA LUX AUT CHE FRA LCA SWZ MAC NLD URY IRL CRI GRC VEN ESP DEU BEL LKA TKM GNQ GBR DNK SVN PRT USA ZAF DOM IDN ARG DJI BWA KAZ PHL IRN CHL COL LBN TUN BLZ GIN PNG TUR HUN EGY BGR UZB BLR CZE JAM GUY SUR CUB RUS VUT JOR PER NOR SLV SVKHRV NIC MEX DZA CIV FJI UKR POL ZWE ROM GEO MKD AZE GTM KGZ ECU IND EST SWE SEN CMR NAM ARM MLI LTU VNM FIN IRQ LVA ISL SAM SDN BEN HND PAK SLB HTI CAN SYR PRY NGA MRT ALB STP GHA CHN COM LAO GMB MAR KEN BIH GNBTGO BGD MDA ZAR MDG LSO MOZ CAF SLE YEM CPV SOM ETH TJK MWI LBR ERI ZMB TZA KHM NPL ISR BRB OMN SAU TTO BRN KWT QAT

ARE BRN KWT QAT ISR BRB GAB OMN SAU TTO MYS ANT PRI NZL MUS BHR HKG MAC LBY GRC VEN JPN BRA ITA GNQ MLT CRI PAN IRL VCT USA THA NLD GBR CHL LUXCHEBELTUR AUT LCAFRA DEU DNK EGY COL TKM KOR LKA IDN LBN IRN URY BGR RUS ESP ARG SVN GINDJIPRTNOR VUT SUR SWZZAF DOMKAZPNG HUN BWAJOR CUB MEX PHL GUYCMR SLV TUN NIC PER FJI ISL BLZ CZE CIV UZB BLR ROM JAM ARM SVK HRV MKD GEOFIN POL ZWE UKR ESTIRQ AZE PRY DZA SWE IND COM NAM GTM SEN ECU LTU ALB KGZ MLI VNM SYR ZAR LVA PAK STP BEN GHA SLB CHN MRT SAM NGAHTI BGD MAR GMB HND CAN BIH CAF KEN MDG GNB SDN TGO LAO ETH SLE TJK MDA NPL MOZ SOM LBR CPV YEM MWI LSOZMB ERI KHM TZA AFG

BOL

AFG

-.6

-.4 -.2 0 .2 .4 Weighted Average Temperature, 1970-1999 (Late 20th Century)

.6

-.6

-.4 -.2 0 .2 .4 Weighted Average Temperature, 1890-1969 (Early 20th Century)

.6

coef = .76022144, se = .34302156, t = 2.22

coef = 1.081565, se = .91797703, t = 1.18

Partial Association of Average Temperature 1810-1889 and Income

Natural Logarithm of Real GDP per capita, Year 2000 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Partial Association of Average Temperature 1730-1809 and Income

Natural Logarithm of Real GDP per capita, Year 2000 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

ARE HKG MAC QAT BRN KWT

ARE BRN KWT MUS QAT ISR BRB PRI TTO MYS OMN ANT BOL SAU GAB JPN BHR BRA ITA AUT MLT DEU CRI BEL GRCIRL FRA PAN NLD HKG THA CHE GNQLCA KOR NZL LBYVENVCT DNKSVN MAC GBR LKA URY HUN ESP PRT LBN DJI SWZ CZE USA IDN DOM SVK ZAF NOR TUR COLBGRSLV BLR EGY SURTUN POL PHL GINBWA CHLIRNARG CUBBLZ HRV GUY NIC JAM EST PNG VUT MEX ROMSWE FIN JOR UKR CMR TKM CIV MKD PER ISL DZA LTU FJI ZWE IND PRY LVA VNM RUS SEN GTM CAN IRQ MLI ECU ALB BEN NAM HND COMSTP BIH KAZ GEO MRT GHA ARM ZAR PAK HTI NGA LAO MAR SYRGMB SAM AZE SLB SDN MDA UZB BGD TGO MDG GNB CAF KEN CHN SLE MOZ ETH LSO NPL KGZ LBR YEM SOM ZMB MWI KHM ERI TZA TJK LUX

OMN ANT PRI SAU BHR BRB ISR TTO GAB MYS LUX CRI USA IRLMLT LBY FRA VEN NZL MUS GBR ITA GNQ ISL NLDPAN GRC COL DNK NOR ESP CHEVCT JPN MEX PRT BEL AUT BRA DEU LCA CUB ARGCHL THA FJI DOM BLZSURBWA PNG EGY SVN CAN PRYSWE SLV IRN FIN TUN URY LKA PER GUY LBN NIC ZAF TKM KOR JAM DJI IDN SWZ NAM PHL VUT CZEHUNTUR CMR BGR SAM GTMDZA EST JOR GIN ECU HRV MAR IND SVK ZWE CIV KAZ SLB LVA POL BLR HND LTU MKD CPV COM IRQ ROM VNM HTIPAK ALB AZE UZB RUS GEO BGD BIH STP ARM ZAR MRT SEN KENGHA SYR UKR BEN CHN MLI NPL CAF NGA KGZ GMB YEM MOZ LAOSDN TGO ETH GNB SOM LSO MWI SLE MDG ZMB ERI TJK MDA LBR TZA KHM AFG

CPV

BOL

AFG

-.6

-.4 -.2 0 .2 .4 Weighted Average Temperature, 1810-1889 (19th Century)

.6

-.6

-.4

-.2 0 .2 .4 Weighted Average Temperature, 1730-1809 (18th Century)

.6

.8

coef = -4.2486016, se = .78960964, t = -5.38

coef = 2.363295, se = .61864301, t = 3.82

Graphical examination of linearity in Equation (4.1) (OLS Full sample): Plots of residuals against independent variables !!
Plot of residuals against contemporaneous temperature
2

Plot of residuals against early 20th century temperature

2

LBYGNQ QAT ARE SAU VEN KWT GAB BRN RUS SWZ DZA BHR TTO IRQ IRN ISR MAC COL OMN ARG UZB KAZ CUB PRY PRI ITA UKR SGP DOM LBN ZWEBRAGIN MYS DJI LUX KOR PNG MUS IDN CYP MEX ECU PAN TWN AZE GTM JPN AUSZAR VCT HTI TUN CMRCIV GEOHRV GRC HKG SLV USA FRA MKD TUR LCA BGR EGY THA NIC ALB BOL LKA BEL SVN PER BLZ ZAF AGO ESP URY PAK MLT SOM BRB SDN PHL CZE DEU SUR GUY SVK KGZ AUT IRL PRT CHE JAM GBR CRI FJI NOR CHN PRK NLD ROM TJK LVA HUN HND DNK BGD COM LTU ARM EST POL SRB BIH SYR BWA CAF NGA NZL VNM JOR CAN MARNAM SWE ISL CHL VUT LAOKEN YEM INDGNB SLB MDA FIN MRT LBR NPL SLE SEN AFG TGO CPVETHSAM LSO MLI GHA MOZSTP BEN BFA GMB ZMB MDG KHM ERI TZA MWI MNG COG TKM BLR

LBY GNQ QAT ARE SAU VEN KWT GAB BRN RUS SWZ DZA BHR TTO IRQ IRN ISR MAC COL OMN ARG UZB KAZ CUB PRY PRI ITA UKR SGP DOM LBN ZWE BRAGIN MYS DJI LUX KOR MUSPNG PAN CYP MEXECU GTM TWN IDN AZE JPN AUS ZAR VCT HTI TUN CMR GEOMKD GRC HRV CIV HKG SLV USA FRA LCA BGR EGY THA NIC ALB TUR ZAF AGO BOL LKA BEL SVN ESP URY PAKPER BLZ MLT SOM BRB SDN PHL CZE DEU SUR GUY SVK KGZ AUT IRL PRT CHE JAM GBR CRI FJI NORCHNPRKHUN ROM TJK LVA NLD BIH HND DNK BGD COM LTU ARM EST POL SRB NGA SYR BWA CAF NZL VNM JOR CAN ISL MAR SWE NAM VUT LAO CHL YEMSLB INDGNB KEN MDA FIN MRT LBR NPL SLE SEN AFG TGO CPVETH MLI LSO SAM GHA MOZ STP BEN BFA GMB ZMB MDG KHM MWI ERI TZA MNG COG TKM BLR

Residuals 0

-1

-2

BTN

-2

-1

Residuals 0

BTN

-30

-20 -10 0 10 20 Weighted Average Temperature, 1970-1999 (Late 20th Century)

30

-30

-20 -10 0 10 20 Weighted Average Temperature, 1890-1969 (Early 20th Century)

30

Plot of residuals against 19th century temperature

2
2

Plot of residuals against 18th century temperature

LBY GNQ QAT ARE SAU VEN KWT GAB BRN RUS SWZ DZA BHR TTO IRN ISRIRQ OMN MAC COL ARG UZB KAZ CUB PRY PRI ITA GIN UKR SGP ZWE DOM LBN MYS BRA LUX KOR PNG MUS DJI PAN CYP MEXECUZAR IDN TWN AZE JPN AUS GTM VCT HTI TUN CMR GEOMKD GRC HRV CIV HKG SLV USA LCA EGY THA NIC ALB BELFRATUR ZAF AGO BOLLKA SVN BGR PER BLZ ESP URY PAK MLT SOM BRB SDN PHL CZE DEU SUR GUY KGZ AUT IRL PRT CHE JAM GBR CRI FJI NOR CHN PRKSVK ROM NLD TJK LVA HUN DNK SRB BGD HND LTU ARM BIH COM EST POL NZL SYR BWA CAFNGA VNM JOR CAN ISL MAR SWE NAM VUT LAO CHL YEMSLB INDGNB KEN MDA FIN MRT LBR NPL SLE SEN AFG TGO CPVETH MLI LSO SAM GHA MOZ STP BEN BFA GMB ZMB MDG KHM ERI TZA MWI MNG COG TKM BLR

LBY GNQ QAT ARE SAU VEN KWT GAB BRN RUS SWZ DZA BHR TTO IRN ISRIRQ OMN MAC COL UZBARG KAZ CUB PRY PRI ITA GIN UKR SGP ZWE DOM LBN MYS BRA LUXKOR PNG MUS DJI PAN CYP MEXECUZAR IDN TWN AZE JPN AUS GTM VCT HTI TUN CMR CIV HKG SLV USA GEOHRV GRC MKD TUR LCA EGY THA NIC ALB BELFRA SVNBGRESP ZAF AGO BOLLKA PER BLZ MLT SOM BRB SDN URY PAK PHL CZE DEU AUT IRL SUR GUY SVK PRT CHE JAM GBR CRI FJI NORKGZ PRKHUN ROM CHN TJK LVA NLD BIH DNK SRB BGD HND LTU ARM COM EST POL NZL SYR BWA CAFNGA VNM JOR CAN ISL MAR SWE NAM VUT LAO CHL YEMSLB INDGNB KEN MDA FIN MRT LBR NPL SLE SEN AFG TGO ETH CPV STP LSO SAM GHA MOZBFAMLI BEN GMB ZMB MDG KHM ERI TZA MWI MNG COG TKM BLR

Residuals 0

-1

-2

BTN

-2

-1

Residuals 0

BTN

-30

-20 -10 0 10 20 Weighted Average Temperature, 1810-1889 (19th Century)

30

-30

-20 -10 0 10 20 Weighted Average Temperature, 1730-1809 (18th Century)

30

Plot of residuals against the institutions index

2

QAT ARE SAU KWT GAB BRN RUS SWZ DZA BHR TTO IRQ IRN OMN ISR MAC COL ARG UZB KAZ CUB ITAPRI GIN PRY SGP ZWE UKR LBN DJI DOM BRA MYS LUX MEX PAN IDN PNG MUS KOR CYP TWN JPN AUS AZEGTM ZAR ECU VCT HTI CIV GEO TUN CMR HRV HKG USA FRA GRC LCA SLV NICMKD BGR EGY ALB PER TUR THA BOL BEL SVN AGO LKA ESP MLT SOM BRB PAK SDN PHL BLZ ZAF URY DEU AUT SUR GUY ROM SVK CZE PRT GBR KGZCHN FJI IRL CHE JAM CRI NOR PRK NLD LVA HUN TJK HNDBIH DNK LTU EST COMSRB ARM POL NGA BGD SYRVNM MAR BWA CAF NZL JOR CAN SWE ISL CHL VUTNAM YEMLAO GNB KEN SLB IND MDA FIN MRT LBR SLE TGO NPL SEN AFG ETH CPV MLILSO SAM GHA MOZSTP BFA BEN GMB KHM MDG ERI ZMB MWI TZA MNG COG

GNQ LBY TKM BLR VEN

-2

-1

Residuals 0

BTN

-4

-3

-2 -1 0 1 2 World Governance Indicators Index (average), 1996-2010

! ! ! Graphical examination of linearity in Equation (4.1) (OLS Full sample): Augmented component-plus-residual plots (aka augmented partial residual plots) !

Augmented component plus residual -1 0 1 2

-2

-10

0 10 20 Weighted Average Temperature, 1970-1999 (Late 20th Century)

30

-5

Augmented component plus residual 0 5 10 15

20

-10

0 10 20 Weighted Average Temperature, 1890-1969 (Early 20th Century)

30

-20

Augmented component plus residual -15 -10 -5 0

-2
-10

Augmented component plus residual -1 0 1

-10

0 10 20 Weighted Average Temperature, 1810-1889 (19th Century)

30

0 10 20 Weighted Average Temperature, 1730-1809 (18th Century)

30

-2
-2

Augmented component plus residual -1 0 1 2

-1 0 1 2 World Governance Indicators Index (average), 1996-2010

Graphical examination of normality in Equation (4.1) (OLS Full sample): Standardized normal probability plot and kernel density estimate

1.00

Standardized Normal Probability Plot

.6

Kernel Density Estimate

Normal F[(r-m)/s] 0.50 0.75

0.25

0
-3

.2

Density .4

-2

-1 Residuals

0 Kernel density estimate Normal density

0.00
0.00

0.25

0.50 Empirical P[i] = i/(N+1)

0.75

1.00
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.1985

! ! ! ! ! ! ! Graphical examination of heteroskedasticity in Equation (4.1) (OLS Full sample): Residuals-versus-fitted plot

Residual-versus-Fitted Plot
2
GNQTKM LBY VEN BLR

SOM

QAT ARE SAU KWT GAB BRN RUS DZA SWZ BHR TTO IRQ IRN MAC COL ARG OMN ISRITA UZB CUB GIN ZWE PRY KAZ UKR DOM PRI SGP DJI LBN BRA LUX MEX MYS IDN PNG MUS TWN PAN KOR CYP JPN AZE ECU ZAR GTM AUS VCT HTI CMR GEO EGY TUN CIV HKG GRC SVN FRA USA MKD LCA NIC PER THA HRV BOL ALB SLV TUR BGR ZAF AGO PAK LKA ESP MLT BEL BRB BLZ SDN URY PHL SUR AUT GUY JAM SVK CZE PRT DEU NOR IRL CHE GBR CRI FJI PRK TJK HND KGZ CHN ROM NLD LVA HUN DNK LTU POL EST SRB NGACOM BGD VNMBIHARM SYR BWA CAF NZL SWE JOR CAN MAR ISL NAM LAO CHL VUT KEN GNB YEM SLB IND MDA FIN MRT LBR NPL SEN AFG SLE TGO ETH CPV MLI STP LSO SAM MOZ GHA BFA BEN GMB KHM ZMB MDG ERI MWI TZA MNG COG

-2

-1

Residuals 0

BTN

8 Fitted values

10

11

Table 4.3: OLS Estimation of Equation (4.1) with Sub-sample Robustness Checks (Conventional standard errors) Dependent Variable - Logged Real GDP per capita in 2000 Explanatory Variable Full Sample 0.046 (0.247) 0.689 (0.617) -0.770 (0.545) 0.023 (0.327) 0.704** (0.052) 0.632 170 Baseline Sample 0.140 (0.232) 1.391* (0.590) -0.882 (0.544) -0.655 (0.470) 0.760** (0.050) 0.707 161 Sub-Saharan Africa Excluded 0.176 (0.219) 0.855 (0.498) -0.325 (0.454) -0.699 (0.366) 0.739** (0.043) 0.759 124 OPEC Members Excluded 0.217 (0.221) 0.907 (0.552) -0.641 (0.515) -0.494 (0.434) 0.779** (0.048) 0.762 147 Former Soviets Excluded 0.060 (0.253) 1.341* (0.624) -1.100 (0.597) -0.303 (0.609) 0.779** (0.054) 0.711 149 High-income Excluded -0.108 (0.325) 1.454 (0.884) -1.580 (0.835) 0.206 (0.883) 0.405** (0.099) 0.293 80 Low-income Excluded 0.058 (0.178) 0.889* (0.424) -0.595 (0.404) -0.340 (0.324) 0.519** (0.047) 0.676 81

TMPc20l( (Contemporaneous temperature) TMPc20e( (Early 20th century temperature) TMPc19( (19th century temperature) TMPc18( (18th century temperature)( INS( (Institutions index)(
R2 N

Notes: Conventional standard errors are in parentheses. Significance levels are indicated by #p < 0.1, * p < 0.05 and ** p < 0.01. N represents the number of countries in the sample. The baseline sample is the full sample without statistical outliers as identified by Cooks distance criterion (refer to the main text). The statistical outliers include: Belarus, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Congo Kinshasa, Equatorial Guinea, Mongolia, Russian Federation and Turkmenistan.

24!