TC NG CA C CU VN N

KH NNG SINH LI TRN VN CH S HU

CA CC CNG TY NIM YT TRN TH TRNG
CHNG KHON VIT NAM

Ngi trnh by: TS Trn Th Thanh T

Nghin cu vin, VDF
Ging vin, NEU

Li cm n

Nghin cu ny c thc hin bi

s cng tc rt hu ch, nhit tnh
ca nhm gio vin tr, B mn ti
chnh doanh nghip, Khoa NHTC,
NEU
S liu c h tr cung cp bi
cng ty Stoxplus v cc sinh vin
K47
Xin chn thnh cm n!

Tnh cp thit ca ti

S lng cc CTNY ngy cng gia tng,

mc vn ho th trng tng: % GDP 3
nm ln lt l : 2007- gn 49%, 200815% v 2009 - gn 40%
Chnh sch c cu vn c tc ng khng
nh n kh nng sinh li ca cc CTNY->
gi c phiu
=> xut m hnh kinh t lng phn
tch tc ng ca c cu vn n kh nng
sinh li ca CTNY

Tnh hnh nghin cu

Titman v Wessels (1988): c cu vn b

nh hng bi t trng chi ph nghin cu
trin khai v chi ph bn hng/tng doanh
thu
Federick H.deB.Harris, Williamson (1988,
1991) cho rng c cu vn c mi lin h
mt thit vi c cu ti sn, mc m
nhim doanh thu
Gentry (1994) cho rng thu sut, chnh
sch tr c tc v mc s dng n by
hot ng nh hng n c cu vn

Tnh hnh nghin cu

Rajan v Zingales, Barclay, Smith v Watts

(1955) cng pht hin ra gi th trng v gi tr
s sch ca c phiu c nh hng ngc chiu
n t l n
2004, Lisa A.Keister nghin cu v c cu vn
ca cc DNNN Trung quc v pht hin ra rng
cc DNNN gi li cng nhiu li nhun th vay n
cng nhiu
2006, Trn Th Thanh T ( LATS) xut m
hnh phn tch cc nhn t tc ng n c cu
vn ca cc DNNN, cho thy c cu vn ca
DNNN cha thc s chu tc ng cc nhn t th
trng nh chi ph li vay; c cu vn khng tc
ng nhiu n kh nng sinh li ca DNNN
V.v.v

Mc ch nghin cu

C cu vn ca doanh nghip, nhng nhn t nh

hng n c cu vn, tc ng ca c cu vn n
kh nng sinh li ca doanh nghip
Phn tch thc trng c cu vn ca cc CTNY trn th
trng chng khon Vit nam, kim nh l thuyt v
c cu vn ti u da trn s liu v c cu vn ca
cc CTNY trn TTCK Vit nam t nm 2005 n 2008
Xy dng m hnh kinh t lng : (i)c lng nhng
nhn t nh hng n c cu vn ca cc CTNY trn
th trng chng khon Vit nam v (ii)phn tch tc
ng ca c cu vn n kh nng sinh li ca cc
CTNY trn th trng chng khon Vit nam
xut cc gii php v iu kin hon thin c cu
vn ca cc CTNY trn th trng chng khon Vit
nam

Phng php nghin cu

Phng php phng vn, thu thp

thng tin, tng hp, so snh, phn tch
tnh hung.
Phng php ton kinh t c s
dng vi m hnh kinh t lng xy
dng m hnh hi qui hai giai on
nghin cu c cu vn ca cc CTNY
trn TTCK Vit nam

Khung phn tch

C cu ti sn

C cu vn
N/TV
NDH/TV

ROE

Ri ro kinh doanh
Mc
Kim sot ca NN

ROA

Kh nng
sinh li

Nhn t nh
hng n CCV

Ngnh ngh
kinh doanh

EPS

S liu

S liu v c cu vn v kh nng
sinh li ca hn 400 CTNY trn HNX
v HOSE
Thi gian : 2005-2008

S liu
B s liu bao gm cc ch tiu ti chnh ca cc
doanh nghip:
N/Tng Vn (n v:%)
N Di Hn/Tng Vn (n v:%)
Gi Vn Hng Bn/Doanh Thu (n v:%)
TSC/Tng Ti Sn (n v:%)
T l VCSHcaNN/Tng Vn (n v:%)
ROE (n v:%)
ROA (n v:%)
EPS
Ngnh kinh doanh ca DN (cc DN c chia
thnh 11 ngnh kinh doanh)

X l s liu
-

To bin gi cho nm( 2005-2008)

v ngnh kinh doanh ( 11 ngnh)
Loi b cc quan st b thiu s liu

La chn m hnh

La chn bin ph thuc

La chn bin c lp
Xy dng m hnh hi qui
Phng php hi qui hai giai on

La chn bin
Tn bin

Gii thch

Bin ph
thuc

o lng c cu vn ca cc cng ty nim yt

LTDR

N Di hn/Tng vn: N di hn (n vay ngn hng

di hn v pht hnh tri phiu) trn tng vn

DR

H s n (bao gm c n ngn v di hn) trn tng

vn. Do cc CTNY s dng n di hn rt t nn
h s ny c s dng b sung cho h s N di
hn/Tng vn

La chn bin
Bin c
lp

Gii thch

Quan h vi
bin ph
thuc

PoverTR

Gi vn hng bn/Doanh thu. Cc doanh nghip

kinh doanh nhng ngnh ngh khc nhau th
h s ny rt khc nhau, bin ny c s dng
nh bin gi cho ri ro kinh doanh

+/-

FAoverTA

Ti sn c nh/ Tng ti sn

ER

Vn ch s hu ca nh nc/ Tng vn

Di

Ngnh th i, i chy t 1 n 11 do cc cng ty

nim yt c chia thnh 11 nhm ngnh

ROA

Thu nhp sau thu/Tng ti sn

ROE

Thu nhp sau thu/Tng vn ch s hu

Yj

j chy t 2005 -2008 kim nh xem cc nm

khc nhau th h s n ca cc CTNY c thay
i khng

+/-

+/-

Cc gi thit ca m hnh

M hnh hi qui 2 giai on:

Lp m hnh 1: Phn tch cc yu t tc ng n
c cu vn ca doanh nghip
DR = F( PoverTR, FAoverTA, ER, ROA, Di, Yj)
LTDR = G( PoverTR, FAoverTA, ER, ROA, Di,

Cc gi thit ca m hnh

Lp m hnh 2: Phn tch tc ng ca c cu

vn n kh nng sinh li trn vn ch s
hu ca cc CTNY
ROE = H(DR, LTDR)
EPS = K( DR, LTDR)

C cu vn ca CTNY H s n/tng vn
Nm

2005

2006

2007

2008

Cng ngh

41.6%

40.5%

37.3%

31.66%

Y t - Dc

46.40%

41.92%

23.36%

21.87%

51.5%

46.5%

42.4%

45.98%

53.38%

52.94%

49.39%

50.78%

55.3%

60.2%

48.4%

47%

Nguyn vt liu

55.59%

52.55%

47.39%

44.03%

Thng mi - Dch v khc

57.48%

48.31%

44.79%

49.36%

58.4%

53.1%

46.7%

47.23%

79.11%

78.08%

67.71%

64.92%

Hng tiu dng

Vn ti
Cng nghip

Nng lng
Xy dng - Bt ng sn

C cu vn ca CTNY H s n di hn/tng vn
Nm

2005

2006

2007

2008

Vn ti

1.58%

0.79%

5.24%

6.83%

Y t - Dc

2.36%

1.02%

0.12%

0.38%

Thng mi - Dch v khc

3.75%

2.79%

1.54%

1.07%

5.0%

3.4%

4.6%

2.78%

5.66%

5.33%

5.26%

3.86%

Cng nghip

6.9%

5.0%

7.5%

0.6%

Hng tiu dng

9.8%

8.7%

8.0%

2.54%

12.12%

12.56%

10.08%

7.06%

28.4%

23.0%

22.0%

13.53%

Cng ngh
Nguyn vt liu

Xy dng - Bt ng sn
Nng lng

Kh nng sinh li ca CTNY - ROE

Nm

2005

2006

2007

2008

Vn ti

14.6%

17.6%

18.9%

15.41%

Nng lng

15.5%

16.8%

16.5%

17.65%

Thng mi - Dch v khc

17.1%

22.2%

19.0%

20.20%

Cng nghip

18.0%

26.8%

22.0%

19%

Nguyn vt liu

18.6%

16.9%

15.3%

16.67%

Cng ngh

19.9%

21.5%

16.1%

9.07%

Hng tiu dng

21.7%

23.1%

18.7%

11.04%

Xy dng - Bt ng sn

22.8%

23.0%

15.1%

13.66%

Y t - Dc

23.2%

22.0%

13.9%

13.33%

Kh nng sinh li ca CTNY - EPS

Nm

2005

2006

2007

2008

Vn ti

1,408

2,506

3,249

3,537

Nng lng

1,803

1,966

2,512

2,389

Nguyn vt liu

2,020

2,151

2,695

3,021

Thng mi - Dch v khc

2,247

3,210

3,283

3,310

Xy dng - Bt ng sn

2,724

2,696

3,485

3,118

Hng tiu dng

2,832

3,454

3,747

1,866

Y t - Dc

2,868

4,576

5,901

4,997

Cng ngh

3,309

4,120

3,364

931

Cng nghip

4,345

3,213

4,290

2162

Kt qu chy m hnh - Lp MH 1
Trn HOSE:
TSC/Tng Ti Sn thng khng c nhiu
thay i trong thi gian ngn nn khng c
ngha trong m hnh, c loi b
Gi vn hng bn/Doanh thu tng thm 1%
th N/Tng vn s tng thm 0.12757% v
ngc li
C cu vn ch s hu NN/Tng vn tng->
tng t l n trn tng vn. Tuy nhin tc
ng ca yu t ny ti c cu n c xu
hng gim theo cc nm, v mc gim
ca tc ng ny trong cc nm 2005 2008
l tng i u, xp x 0.5%.

Kt qu chy m hnh - Lp MH 1

Cc doanh nghip trong ngnh cng

nghip v xy dng bt ng sn lun c
c cu n cao hn cc doanh nghip khc.
i vi cc doanh nghip trong ngnh
cng nghip th t l n/tng vn cao hn
cc doanh nghip khc l 12.619%, cn
vi cc doanh nghip trong ngnh xy
dng bt ng sn l: 15,462%.

Kt qu chy m hnh - Lp MH 1
Trn HNX:
Cc doanh nghip trong lnh vc
sn xut in c t l n cao hn
cc doanh nghip khc khong 2%
v cc doanh nghip xy dng bt
ng sn c t l n cao hn cc
doanh nghip khc 13,913%.
Ch tiu gi vn hng bn/doanh
thu t c nh hng n c cu vn

Kt qu chy m hnh - Lp MH 1

Vn ch s hu NN/Tng vn tng thm

1% th N/Tng Vn s gim 0.36555%
v ngc li, trong iu kin cc yu t
khc khng thay i.
Nm 2007, c cu vn ca cc CTNY trn
HNX gim ng k, gim 13,44% so vi
nm 2006
Nm 2008, h s n ca cc CTNY trn
HNX gim mnh hn na, xung
35,234% do tc ng ca lm pht v chi
ph li vay tng cao.

Kt qu chy m hnh - Lp MH 2
Trn HOSE:
ROE ca CTNY dng nh khng ph
thuc vo c cu vn ca cc doanh
nghip ( P-value khng c ngha)
EPS chu tc ng mnh bi t l n ca
doanh nghip
Khi N/Tng Vn tng thm 1% th li
trn 1 c phn s gim xung 0.49404%
v ngc li
=> n by ti chnh c tc ng tiu cc

Kt qu chy m hnh - Lp MH 2

CTNY trn HNX tng h s n ln

1% th ROE tng 0.12825%.
C cu vn ca doanh nghip tng
thm 1% th EPS ca doanh nghip
cng tng thm 0.48704%.
=> C cu vn ca cc CTNY trn
HNX c tc ng tch cc n kh
nng sinh li trn vn ch s hu.

Kt lun v khuyn ngh

Gii php hon thin c cu vn ca

CTNY
Cc iu kin thc hin gii php
Mt s hn ch ca ti nghin
cu

Gii php hon thin c cu vn ca

CTNY

Cn gim h s n ca CTNY trn HOSE

C th tng h s n ca CTNY trn HNX,
trong bi cnh h tr cho vay tr li sut
Cn gim t l vn ch s hu nh nc trn
tng vn khuyn khch cc CTNY s dng
n
Cc CTNY cn tnh ton v lp k hoch c
cu vn n by ti chnh pht huy tc
ng tch cc

iu kin thc hin gii php

i mi chnh sch thu: thu TNDN,

thu c tc khuyn khch/hn ch cc
CTNY s dng n
Tng cng tnh minh bch/ hiu qu ca
TTCK: cng khai ho thng tin, thnh lp
cc t chc nh mc tn nhim
Hon thin cng tc qun tr doanh
nghip ca cc CTNY: chnh sch c tc,
gii quyt cc xung t li ch

Cc hn ch/ vn cn nghin cu
tip

Cc bin ca m hnh cha y :

thu, chi ph li vay v.v.
Kt qu chy m hnh c h s R2
thp (di 20%), mc gii thch
ca cc bin c lp n bin ph
thuc cn thp
Cha xy dng c m hnh c
cu vn ti u cho mt CTNY
(nghin cu in hnh)