..

, ...

30 2005


..

30 2005

, ...

: .

, ,

.
.

.
.
,
. .
. .

.


..................................................................................................................4
..................................................................................................6
....................................................................................................6
..........................................................................................7
1 : ...............................................................................................9
1.1 ...................................................................................................................9
1.2 ...........................................................................................10
1.3 ....................................................................................11
1.4 .............................................12
1.5 ...................................................................................13
2 : .....................................................15
2.1 .................................................................................................................15
2.1.2 .........................................................................................17
2.1.3 .............................................................................................17
2.1.4 ..................................................................................................18
2.1.5 .................................................................................18
2.1.6 .......................................................................................................18
2.1.7 ................................................................................................19
2.1.8 ......................................................................19
3 : ..........................................20
3.1 ...........................................................................................................20
3.2 .....................................................................20
3.3
..................................................................................................................................21
3.4
....................................................................................................................22
3.5 .......................................22
3.6 ......................26
3.6.1
...........................................................................................................26

3.6.2
...........................................................................................................28
3.6.3 ............................30
3.7 ...................................................................................................31
4 : .............................................................................33
4.1 ...........................................................................................................33
4.2 ..........................................................................................34
4.3 .............................................................36
4.4 ......................................................................................39
4.5 .................41
4.5.1 2002
..............................................................................................................................41
4.5.2 2005
..............................................................................................................................43
4.5.3 .........................................45
4.5.4 ...................47
4.5.5 O.A. Aegean
Airlines.................................................................................................................49
4.6
..................................................................................................................................51
4.7 .....................................52
4.8 ...................................................................................................55
5 : ......................................57
5.1. ..........................................................................................................57
5.2 .....................................................................58
5.3 .....................................................................64
5.4
().............................................................................................................................66
5.5
() ............................................................................................................................71
5.6 , , , ............................................75
6..................................................................................................................77
6.1 ...................................................................................................77
6.2 ......................................................................79
5

 ..............................................................................................................81
.................................................................................................................82

1.1 : ........................................................16
5.1 : .....................58

3.1 : .......................23
3.2 : /
.................................................................................................................26
3.3 : /
..................................................................................................................28
3.4 : ...............30
4.1 : 2002.............................................................41
4.2 : 2005..............................................................43
4.3 : 2002
2005.......................................................................................................................45
4.4 : .. 2002 2005
......................................................................................................................................47
4.5 : ...49
5.1 :
...........................57
5.2 : ......................................................59
5.3 : ..........................60
5.4 : .....64
5.5 :
......................................................................................................................................66

 5.6 :
. ....................................................................................................68
5.7 :
.......................................................................69
5.8 :
......................................................................................................................................71
5.9 :
....................................................................................................72
5.10 :
.....................................................................73
5.11 : , , ...................75

3.1 : ..................24
3.2 : /
.................................................................................................................27
3.3 : /
..................................................................................................................29
3.4 : ...........31
4.1 : ..34
4.2 : ...................................35
4.3 : ....................36
4.4 : ...................37
4.5 : .................37
4.6 : ...38
4.7 :
. ....................................................................................................39
4.8 :
2002..............................................................................................................................42
4.9 :
2005..............................................................................................................................44

 4.10 : ........................46
4.11 : .. ...........................................48
4.12 : .........50
4.13 : .................................................................51
4.14 : ...................52
4.15 : .............53
4.16 : . ......................54
4.17: . ......................54
5.1 :
...........................58

 1 :

1.1

,

.



.

1 .



,

.


,
,
.

, , 01 12 - 2003

1.2




.
:


.


2000 2005
,


2005 2002.

Biogeme

, ,
Aegean Airlines.
.

10

1.3




. 2001,
2002, 2003 2005.

2002 2005
2005
2002.
2000 2005
.

biogeme, 1.3,
(multinomial logit).
nested logit mixed logit.


, ,
Aegean Airlines.

11

1.4

.

.


.



2000 2005.

2001, 2002, 2003 2005


2005 2001.



.

12

1.5


.
1994 H. Psaraftis et. al.

510,6 1990
1,5% .

, , ,
. 1990
multinomial logit

.
2001

.

69% .

. 79%
71%
.

, .
2002

. - .

13

 .
2597 3307 .

2379 3620
5312 4407
.
2002 .
,
- .

.
2002
2005
.

2005 2002
,

.

, ,
Aegean Airlines.
nested logit mixed logit


.

14

 2 :

2.1

.

,
.

,
.
.


.
.

15

 1.1 :

1.1
:

16

2.1.2
, ,

.

.
Aegean.
...
.

2.1.3

.. .

,

.

17

2.1.4
,
,
.

a priori
.

2.1.5

.

.


.

.

.

2.1.6

.
, , ,

.

18

2.1.7

.


.


.

2.1.8

.
.

.

.


.

19

 3 :

3.1



2000 - 2005
.

3.2
-
, 153 222
.
8 11 ,
20 23 .



.
, 40
. .
,
.

.

, 2004
.
2005
.
20



.
.


.

3.3

,
, (...)
, ,
, 8 11
. ...
30 % 50 %
.

( , ).
,
2002,
.
. ,

, , , , ,
. , SAOS
.

21

3.4

, 2003
,
. 3 2003,
Aegean Airlines

,
, , , .

.
ATR72 - 202 68
. ,
. , Aegean Airlines

AVRO

RJ

100,

100

.
Aegean
, 100 117
.

3.5

2000 2005.

22

 3.1 :

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

15267

15390

21321

18940

17398

17420

15780

20782

21170

13849

14791

14971

19846

20781

21468

23666

25256

26606

27027

29562

30173

30245

36571

33794

27118

31819

39531

33137

29930

33467

30334

37232

35122

44598

35809

61655

58238

62710

66097

67178

70082

76038

76046

71813

74689

36747

47485

44486

44337

39788

18206

29191

37727

32510

29443

19223

21780

24276

20723

20808

20034

18539

20648

18540

21684

361319

406837

434678

418455

413345

126258

: / 2005

,

,

,
,
.
3.1,
12.5 % 2001 2000 406,837 .
2002 2001 7 % 434,678

23

. 2003 4 %
, 2004
1.3 %. 2 %
2005 2004.
3.1 :

80000

70000
60000

2000

50000

2001
2002

40000

2003

30000

2004
2005

20000
10000

,
,
.
3.1,

.
,
.


.
.

24



.
-
2002.
.

. ,
,

.

.

.
,
E Views
.


.

.


.

25

3.6

2000
2005.
3.6.1

3.2 : /

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

13145

14351

9551

11424

13748

14721

12834

12777

8850

10897

13439

13566

13072

13788

10151

11623

17512

17245

17798

14302

10867

11074

17752

16643

17058

13334

12314

10930

16803

17807

17791

14816

12274

12310

18543

18454

20779

17979

16717

15788

22157

20417

19576

18646

16465

21051

17826

13777

14162

13835

19541

16382

9844

14219

11451

17224

13306

8965

10170

14034

15337

14488

11121

11515

14414

15486

194896

164630

149436

154245

208593

98436

: / / 2005

26


.
3.2, 2000
194,896. 2001 14 % 164,630
. 2002 10 %
149,436,
. 3,2 % 2003,
154,245, 2004 35 %
208,593 . 2005
0,6 % 2004.
3.2 : /

25000
20000

2000

2001

15000

2002
2003

10000

2004
2005

5000

3.2,
.
,

27

 , .

.
3.6.2

3.3 : /

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

101

1470

1600

996

709

790

674

612

4626

5381

6227

4795

4101

4395

7135

7243

8489

6163

5294

4936

6933

7859

8742

6920

6160

7015

7756

9911

5393

5669

5771

6380

7940

5395

6200

1680

1552

1754

1387

1407

214

34760

37167

43772

30843

31290

9943

: / / 2005

3.3,
. 2000 2003
.
2004

28

 . 2000
34,760 2001 6,9 % 37,167 .
2002 17,7 % 43,772
41,9 % 2003 30,843 .
2004 1,4 % 31290
2005 17 %
2004 9943 .
3.3 : /

12000

10000

2000
2001

8000

2002

6000

2003

4000

2004
2005

2000

3.3,
,
,

.

29

3.6.3

.

3.4 :

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

13145

14351

9551

11424

13849

14721

12834

12777

8850

10897

13439

13566

13072

13788

10151

11623

18982

17245

19398

15298

11576

11864

18426

17255

21684

18715

18541

15725

20904

22202

24926

22059

20763

18473

23837

23390

27712

25838

25459

22708

28317

27432

27332

28557

21858

26720

23597

20157

22102

19230

25741

18062

11396

15973

12838

18631

13306

8965

10170

14034

15551

14488

11121

11515

14414

15486

229656

201797

193208

185088

239883

108379

: / / 2005

3.4,
2004. 2000
229,656 2001 13,8 % 207,797.
2002 4,4 % 193,208 2003

4,3 %

185,088.
2004 29,6 % 239,883 .

30

 0,9 % 2005
2004 108,379 .

3.4 :

30000

25000
20000
2000

15000

2001
2002

10000

2003

5000

2004
2005

3.4,


.
.

.

3.7


2000
31

 Aegean Airlines ,

.

2004
.


.

.

32

 4 :

4.1



',
' , 2001, 2002, 2003 2005.
2001 174
.

- -
... 2002 399
. 2003
60 2005 123
.
, 2002, .
756.
....
.... .
.
4 SPSS
.

187. :

, , ,

33

, .

.
, 9
21 2 3 .

4.2
2001, 2002 2005
2003 .
4.1 :

23%

23%

31%

23%

34

 4.1,
31%.
23%.

2003 .
4.2 :

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%

50%

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

4.2, 67%
33% . 55%
45% .

68%
32% .
58% 42%.

35

4.3
.
53%
41% 6% .
4.3 :

46 - 65
19%

66
1%
/ - /
6%

26 - 45
40%

18 - 25
34%

4.3,
40% 26 45 . 34%
25 20% 46 6% .

36

 4.4 :

9,999
6%

500
9%
501 - 1000
17%

1501
32%

1001 - 1500
36%

4.4, 68%
1000 17% 501 - 1000 6% 500 .
6% .
4.5 : .

2%

22%

8%

2%
/ - /
6%

13%

7%

4%

18%

18%

4.5,
/ 22%.

37

 18%
13%.
8%
7%. 4%
2% 6% .
4.6 :

/ - /
6%

9%

6%

40%

39%

4.6, 40%
39% .
9%
6% 6% .

38

 4.7 :
.

5%

/ - /
12%

15%

26%

42%

4.7, 39%

24%.
13% 5% .
52%
. 19%

4.4



.
:

39














1 7 :
1 =
2 =
3 =
4 =
5 =
6 =
7 =
, 2002 2005,


. ,
, Aegean Airlines 2005
2001 Aegean .

40

4.5
4.5.1 2002

4.1 : 2002

5,2

3,2

3,0

6,4

4,2

5,0

4,4

4,6

4,4

5,8

4,6

4,5

3,6

4,5

4,5

4,6

2,4

4,0

5,3

3,5

4,7

5,1

4,2

5,4

3,8

3,3

3,4

4,9

41

 4.8 :
2002

7
6
5
4

2
1

4.8,
,


. , ,

.
,

.

,
.



.

42

 , ,
.


.

. ,

2001

.

4.5.2 2005

4.2 : 2005

4.4

3.8

2.8

6.2

3.3

5.2

4.9

5.3

3.4

5.8

4.8

5.2

4.9

4.8

5.2

3.5

5.6

4.8

4.1

4.7

4.1

5.7

2.3

2.9

3.3

4.7

43

 4.9 :
2005

7
6
5
4

2
1

4.9,
2005 2001.



.

. ,

.
2005

.
2005
.

.

44


, ,
Aegean
.

.
2001

.

4.5.3

2005 2002.

4.3 : 2002
2005

2002
5,2

2005
4,4

3,0

2,8

4,2

3,3

4,4

4,9

4,4

3,4

4,6

4,8

3,6

5,0

4,5

4,8

2,4

3,0

5,3

5,6

4,7

4,1

4,2

4,1

3,8

2,3

3,4

3,3

45

 4.10 :

7
6
5
4
2002
3

2005

2
1

4.10,
2005 ,
..., 7% 2002,
3% 2003, 2% 2004 5% 2005. ,
.




.


.

.

,
,
.

46


.

, , ,
2005 2001.



. ,
- -

.
4.5.4
4.4 : .. 2002 2005

2002

2005

3,2

3,5

6,4

6,0

5,0

4,9

4,6

5,3

5,8

5,7

4,5

4,6

4,5

5,6

4,6

5,1

4,0

3,5

3,5

4,7

5,1

4,6

5,4

5,5

3,3

3,0

4,9

4,8

47

 4.11 : ..

7
6
5
4
2002
3

2005

4.11,
.
, ,
2001 2005 .
2005.

.
,
.


.
.
2005
.

2005
.

48

 2005
2001.
.


.

.

4.5.5 O.A. Aegean

Airlines
4.5 :

Aegean Airlines

4,0

3,5

6,4

6,0

5,6

4,9

5,3

5,3

5,8

5,7

5,7

4,6

4,3

5,6

5,4

5,1

3,5

3,5

5,0

4,7

4,8

4,6

5,9

5,5

2,9

3,0

4,7

4,8

49

 4.12 :

7
6
5
Olympic
Airlines

4
3

Aegean
Airlines

2
1

/


/

4.12,
Aegean Airlines

.


.
Aegean
, , , ,
, ,
. ,
,

.

50

4.6

2003
. :







1 7.
1 7.
SPSS . 60

:
4.13 :

7
6
5
4
3
2

51

 4.13,

.
.
.

4.7
2005

.
.
4.14 :

03-06
1%
24-03
3%

/-/
14%

06-09
15%

21-24
15%

18-21
9%

09-12
23%
15-18
9%

12-15
11%

4.14, 23% 2005

9 - 12. 6 - 9
21 - 24 15% .
22:00. 11%
12 - 15 9% 15 - 18

52

18 - 21. 24 - 03 03 - 06 3% 1%
.
4.15 :

15-18
8%

18-21
7%

21-24
11%

03-06
1%

12-15
14%

09-12
18%

24-03
2%

/-/
25%
06-09
14%

9 12 18%.
14% 6 - 9 12 - 15 21 - 24.
15 - 18 18 - 21 8% 7%
24 - 03 03 - 06 2% 1%.

53

 4.16 : .

/-/
14%
06-09
8%

03-06
2%

09-12
22%

24-03
5%

21-24
14%
18-21
9%

12-15
15%

15-18
11%

4.16,
9 - 12 22% 12 - 15 15%.
21 - 24 14% 15 - 18
11%. 18 - 21 6 - 9 9% 8%
24 - 3 3 - 6 5% 2%.
4.17: .

06-09
7%

/ -/
31%

09-12
15%

12-15
10%

03-06
2%
24-03
3%

21-24
11%

18-21
7%

15-18
14%

54

 .
9 - 12
15%. 15 - 18 21 - 24 14% 11%
12 - 15 10%. 7%
6 - 9 18 - 21 24 - 3 3 - 6 3%
2%.

4.8
:
O
,
.
.
67%

55%.
68%
58%.

, ,

. ,
, .

2005 2001
.

55


2005 2001.

.

Aegean
,

.
.
2003
.

, , ,
, .


9 12 6 9.


9 12
12 15.
24 3 3 6.

56

 5 :

5.1.

(discrete choice model)

.
Biogeme 1.3.

3 .
2003


.
2001, 2002 2005.
H
:

5.1 :

422

1,340

1,260

Aegean Airlines

84
3,106

57

 5.1 :

Aegean Airlines
3%

41%

14%

42%

5.2


, ,
.

5.1 :

Aegean Airlines

58

5.2 :

01

02
0

03

Aegean
Airlines

1 ,
1 ,
1 ,

66, 0
, 0
500 , 0

..

Aegean
9

1 ,
1 ,
1 ,
1 ,

66, 0
, 0 ,

500 , 0
, 0

1 ,
1 ,
1 ,
1 ,

Aegean

Airlines
66, 0
, 0 ,
500 , 0
, 0

4
0

..

Aegean
11

0
10

1 ,
1 ,

2001, 0
, 0

1 ,
1 ,

2001, 0
, 0

59


. 1
2
.
3 4
.

5 1
500 0 ,
6 1 66 0
, 7 1
0
8 1
, 0 . ,
9
10
1 2001 0 .

11 1
0 .
.

5.3 :

MNL

(01)

(02)
Aegean Airlines
(03)

(1)

- Stat

0,209

1,43

2,24

4,52

1,95

3,82

- 0,00434

- 7,49

60


(2)

(3)

(4)
1 ,
500 , 0
(5)
1 , 66
, 0 (6)
1 , , 0
(7)
1 ,
, 0
(8)

(9)
1 , 2001,
0 (10)
1 ,
, 0
(11)

- 0,0205

- 3,24

- 0,0516

- 18,4

- 0,0648

- 18,7

- 0,905

- 4,81

- 1,87

- 2,5

1,46

4,81

- 0,654

- 7,8

0,0248

4,05

0,881

5,95

0,559

3,92

Summary Statistics
Number of Observations

3102

Initial log-likelihood

- 2765,64

Final log-likelihood

- 2308,41

Rho-square

0,17

Adjusted Rho-square

0,16

5.3
0,209 Aegean
2,24 1,95 .

, ,

0,00434.
.


61

, , 0,0205
.


.

, .

0,0516.


0,0648
.

.

O 500

.

0,905

.

66

(- 1,87)

.

(1,46)

62

, (-0,654)

0,0248,

1 2001

0 2001
,
.



.
A
:
= / = - 0,00434 / 0,0516 = 0,084 / 5,05 /
= / = - 0,0205 /
- 0,0648 = 0,32 / 18,98 / .

63

 nested logit,

.
,
2 0 1
R2 nested.
mixed logit

. nested logit
mixed logit .

5.3
A

1 0 .
12
.
A :
5.4 :

Mnl

(01)

(02)
Aegean
Airlines (03)

(1)

(2)

2

Mnl

- Stat

- Stat

0,209

1,43

0,211

1,44

2,24

4,52

2,09

4,2

1,95

3,82

1,82

3,55

- 0,00434

- 7,49

- 0,00434

- 7,48

- 0,0205

- 3,24

- 0,0190

- 1,87

- 0,0516

- 18,4

- 0,0519

- 18,2

Moshe Ben-Akiva, Discrete Choice Analysis, MIT Press, 1985

64

 (3)

(4)
1 ,
500 , 0
(5)
1 ,
66 , 0
(6)
1 , ,
0 (7)
1 ,
, 0
(8)

(9)
1 ,
2001, 0
(10)
1 ,
, 0
(11)
1 ,
, 0
(12)

- 0,0648

- 18,7

- 0,0651

- 18,7

- 0,905

- 4,81

- 0,830

- 4,39

- 1,87

- 2,5

- 1,88

- 2,42

1,46

4,81

1,51

5,12

- 0,654

- 7,8

- 0,663

- 7,9

0,0248

4,05

0,0203

3,23

0,881

5,95

0,801

5,37

0,559

3,92

0,660

4,55

0,409

4,37

Summary Statistics
Number of

3102

3102

Initial log-likelihood

- 2765,64

- 2765,64

Final log-likelihood

- 2308,41

- 2298,83

Rho-square

0,17

0,17

Adjusted Rho-square

0,16

0,163

Observations

,
.

:

65

 = / = - 0,00434 / 0,0519 = 0,083 / 5,02 /

= / = - 0,019 / 0,065 = 0,29 / 17,53 / .




17,53 .

,

.

5.4

()

.
()

5.5 :

Mnl

(01)

(02)
Aegean

Mnl

- Stat

- Stat

0,209

1,43

0,111

0,4

2,24

4,52

2,86

3,02

1,95

3,82

2,57

2,62

66

Airlines (03)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)
1 ,
500 , 0
(5)
1 ,
66 , 0
(6)
1 , ,
0 (7)
1 ,
, 0
(8)

(9)
1 ,
2001, 0
(10)
1 ,
, 0
(11)

- 0,00434

- 7,49

- 0,00526

- 4,84

- 0,0205

- 3,24

- 0,0230

- 1,87

- 0,0516

- 18,4

- 0,0533

- 10,3

- 0,0648

- 18,7

- 0,0683

- 10,4

- 0,905

- 4,81

- 1,12

- 1,25

- 1,87

- 2,5

1,46

4,81

- 0,654

- 7,8

- 0,987

- 6,11

0,0248

4,05

0,00342

0,32

0,881

5,95

1,42

5,07

0,559

3,92

0,476

2,4

Summary Statistics
Number of

3102

936

Initial log-likelihood

- 2765,64

- 793,131

Final log-likelihood

- 2308,41

- 641,863

Rho-square

0,17

0,19

Adjusted Rho-square

0,16

0,173

Observations

,
500 , 66 ,

.
,

67


45 55

:
5.6 :
.

01

02
0

03

Aegean
Airlines

1 ,


0
0

0
1 ,
1

..
, 0
0
1
1 ,
,

Aegean

,
Airlines
, 0
Aegean
0

..

Aegean
8

1 ,
2001, 0

1

45-55, 0

1 ,
2001, 0

1

45-55, 0

1

45-55, 0

0
9
1 ,

, 0

1 ,

, 0

68

5.7 :

MNL

(01)

(02)
Aegean Airlines
(03)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)
1 ,
, 0
(5)
1 ,
,
0 , (6)
1 45-55,
0 (7)
1 , 2001,
0 (8)
1 ,
, 0
(9)

- Stat

- 0,319

- 1,09

2,53

2,66

2,32

2,35

- 0,00523

- 4,76

- 0,0224

- 1,64

- 0,0536

- 10,2

- 0,0691

- 10,5

- 1,02

- 6,4

1,03

2,92

2,25

3,01

1,42

5,22

0,528

2,66

Summary Statistics
Number of Observations

936

Initial log-likelihood

- 793,131

Final log-likelihood

- 629,993

Rho-square

0,20

Adjusted Rho-square

0,19

69

 5.7,
, 0,319
Aegean Airlines 2,53 2,32
.

0,00523
0,0536.
0,0224
0,0691.
, ,
, ,
, ,
. ,
45 55,
.


2001.

:
= / = - 0,00523 / 0,0536 = 0,0996 / 5,85 /
= / = - 0,0224 /
- 0,0691 = 0,324 / 19,45 / .

70

5.5
()
, 5.4,
.
()
.

5.8 :

Mnl

(01)

(02)
Aegean
Airlines (03)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)
1 ,
500 , 0
(5)
1 ,
66 , 0
(6)
1 , ,
0 (7)
1 ,
, 0
(8)

(9)

Mnl

- Stat

- Stat

0,209

1,43

0,0358

0,17

2,24

4,52

1,84

1,87

1,95

3,82

1,33

1,32

- 0,00434

- 7,49

- 0,00448

- 3,68

- 0,0205

- 3,24

- 0,0155

- 1,30

- 0,0516

- 18,4

- 0,0340

- 5,75

- 0,0648

- 18,7

- 0,0554

- 8,33

- 0,905

- 4,81

- 1,25

- 2,51

- 1,87

- 2,5

- 1,83

- 2,06

1,46

4,81

0,704

1,31

- 0,654

- 7,8

- 0,593

- 3,46

0,0248

4,05

0,00395

3,05

71

1 ,
2001, 0
(10)
1 ,
, 0
(11)

0,881

5,95

0,617

2,05

0,559

3,92

0,797

2,13

Summary Statistics
Number of

3102

703

Initial log-likelihood

- 2765,64

- 636,088

Final log-likelihood

- 2308,41

- 544,628

Rho-square

0,17

0,14

Adjusted Rho-square

0,16

0,12

Observations

5.8

,
:
5.9 :

01

02

03

Aegean
Airlines

..

Aegean
9

4
0

..

Aegean

0
10

72

1 ,
1 ,

66, 0
500 , 0

1 ,

1 ,
2001, 0
, 0

1 ,
1 ,

2001, 0
, 0

1 ,

,

, 0

1 ,
1 ,
1 ,

66, 0
,
500 , 0

, 0

1 ,
1 ,

66, 0
500 , 0

Aegean
Airlines

5.10 :

MNL

(01)

(02)
Aegean Airlines
(03)

(1)

(2)

(3)

- Stat

0,102

0,34

1,98

2,03

1,46

1,46

- 0,00438

- 3,61

- 0,0163

- 1,37

- 0,0330

- 5,63

- 0,0551

- 8,31

73

 (4)
1 ,
500 , 0
(5)
1 , 66
, 0 (6)
1 ,
, 0
(7)

(8)
1 , 2001,
0 (9)
1 ,
, 0
(10)

- 1,31

- 2,65

- 1,90

- 2,13

- 0,575

- 3,37

0,039

3,02

0,629

2,09

0,811

2,17

Summary Statistics
Number of Observations

703

Initial log-likelihood

- 636,088

Final log-likelihood

- 545,575

Rho-square

0,14

Adjusted Rho-square

0,12

5.10,
,
0,102 Aegean Airlines 1,98
1,46 .

0,00438
0,033.
0,0163
0,0551.

, ,

74

 .
2001 .

:
= / = - 0,00438 / 0,033 = 0,132 / 7,96 /
= / = - 0,0163 /
- 0,0551 = 0,295 / 17,75 / .

5.6 , , ,




.

5.11 : , ,

( / )

( / )

5,05

5,02

5,85

7,96

18,98

17,53

19,45

17,75

5.11

75


. ,

80 .

, , .
,
,
. ,
,
, .
(, 2002)
,
. ,


,
.
,


.

76

6.1

.



.

.

,
.


.
,
.

, ,

.
2005 2002
, 2005
, ,
Aegean Airlines

.
,
77

 , , 9 12
.



.

,

.

.

.

.

500 66
.

.

.
45 55
.

,
5
19 .
5,85 19,45 .
78

 7,96 17,75 .


.

5
5.6.

.


nested logit. mixed logit

.

6.2

.

, ,
( )
,
,

.

187 4 , 9
21 2 3 ,
.

79

,

,
.
,
,
.

.

80

Ben-Akiva, Moshe, Steve, Lerman, Discrete Choice Analysis-Theory and Application

to Travel Demand, London, MIT Press, 1985

Levin, Richard I, Statistics for Management, Second Edition, Prentice Hall

, , , , , . ,
2001
, , :
, , ,1992

(),

81



BIOGEME Version 1.3 [Wed Sep 21 16:53:38 GMT 2005]
Author: Michel Bierlaire, EPFL (2001-2005)
This file has automatically been generated.
10/08/05 18:13:06
Note that ASC1 is constrained to 0.0 and will not be estimated
Model: Multinomial Logit
Number of estimated parameters: 14
Sample size: 3102
Null log-likelihood: -2765.64
Init log-likelihood: -2765.64
Final log-likelihood: -2308.41
Likelihood ratio test: 914.467
Rho-square: 0.165327
Adjusted rho-square: 0.160264
Final gradient norm: 0.0136454
Variance-covariance: from finite difference hessian
Utility parameters
Name

Value

Std err

t-test

Robust Std
err

Robust t-test

ASC1 +0.0000000e+000 fixed

ASC2 +2.0979739e-001

+1.4599615e+1.4797253e+1.4370063e+000 *
+1.4178130e+000 *
001
001

ASC3 +2.2499938e+000

+4.9707189e+4.5264956e+000
001

+5.2895746e+4.2536384e+000
001

ASC4 +1.9528522e+000

+5.1105503e+3.8212172e+000
001

+5.3122597e+3.6761235e+000
001

beta1 -4.3445811e-003

+5.7931847e-7.4994693e+000
004

+5.8131455e-7.4737181e+000
004

beta10 +8.8181221e-001

+1.4809766e+5.9542615e+000
001

+1.5165618e+5.8145485e+000
001

beta11 +5.5903615e-001

+1.4268940e+3.9178533e+000
001

+1.4104498e+3.9635311e+000
001

beta2 -2.0537248e-002

+6.3255381e-3.2467195e+000
003

+6.2781778e-3.2712116e+000
003

beta3 -5.1688854e-002 +2.8340899e- -1.8238255e+001

+2.8732842e- -1.7989468e+001

82

003

003

beta4 -6.4844751e-002

+3.4634647e-1.8722509e+001
003

+3.5967040e-1.8028937e+001
003

beta5 -9.0533875e-001

+1.8801371e-4.8152806e+000
001

+1.8683019e-4.8457840e+000
001

beta6 -1.9281601e+000

+7.7932502e-2.4741412e+000
001

+9.0115868e-2.1396455e+000
001

beta7 +1.4609461e+000

+2.9507004e+4.9511841e+000
001

+2.8908312e+5.0537233e+000
001

beta8 -6.5429605e-001

+8.3799716e-7.8078553e+000
002

+8.3508944e-7.8350416e+000
002

beta9 +2.4849607e-002

+6.1347611e+4.0506235e+000
003

+6.1715936e+4.0264491e+000
003

Scale parameters
Name

Value

Std err t-test 1 Robust Std err Robust t-test 1

Scale1 +1.0000000e+000 fixed

Utility functions
1 Alt1 avtship

ASC1 * one + beta1 * tstime + beta3 * tscost + beta10 * year2001 +

beta11 * driver

2 Alt2 avnship

ASC2 * one + beta1 * nstime + beta3 * nshcost + beta5 *

lowincome + beta6 * highage + beta7 * soldier + beta10 * year2001
+ beta11 * driver

ASC3 * one + beta2 * airtime + beta4 * aircost + beta5 *

3 Alt3 avolympi lowincome + beta6 * highage + beta7 * soldier + beta8 *
loweducation + beta9 * frequency
ASC4 * one + beta2 * aegtime + beta4 * aegcost + beta5 *
4 Alt4 avaegean lowincome + beta6 * highage + beta7 * soldier + beta8 *
loweducation + beta9 * frequency
Smallest singular value of the hessian: +1.6450534e+000

83

 Nested Logit

BIOGEME Version 1.3 [Wed Sep 21 16:53:38 GMT 2005]

Author: Michel Bierlaire, EPFL (2001-2005)
This file has automatically been generated.
10/09/05 12:58:27
Nested logit model
Model: Nested Logit
Number of estimated parameters: 15
Sample size: 3102
Null log-likelihood: -2765.64
Init log-likelihood: -2807.28
Final log-likelihood: -2305.49
Likelihood ratio test: 920.307
Rho-square: 0.166382
Adjusted rho-square: 0.160959
Final gradient norm: 0.00296101
Variance-covariance: from finite difference hessian
Utility parameters
Name

Value

Std err

t-test

Robust Std
err

Robust t-test

ASC1 +0.0000000e+000 fixed

ASC2 +2.5094901e-001

+1.2741187e+1.3289329e+1.9695890e+000
+1.8883498e+000 *
001
001

ASC3 +2.5446815e+000

+4.8629886e+5.2892512e+5.2327523e+000
+4.8110430e+000
001
001

ASC4 +2.2294237e+000

+4.9970955e+5.2684429e+4.4614389e+000
+4.2316557e+000
001
001

beta1 -3.7141662e-003

+5.8164984e-6.3855708e+000
004

beta10 +1.0396116e+000

+1.5574223e+1.6158510e+6.6752070e+000
+6.4338336e+000
001
001

beta11 +5.5520385e-001

+1.4181028e+1.3946319e+3.9151170e+000
+3.9810064e+000
001
001

beta2 -2.1373421e-002

+6.2881813e-3.3989830e+000
003

+6.2279376e-3.4318618e+000
003

beta3 -4.8731355e-002 +3.0561830e- -1.5945169e+001

+3.1239387e- -1.5599331e+001

+6.2831034e-5.9113562e+000
004

84

003

003

beta4 -6.3726004e-002

+3.4362779e-1.8545067e+001
003

+3.5175628e-1.8116522e+001
003

beta5 -7.4849892e-001

+1.8029149e-4.1516043e+000
001

+1.8858956e-3.9689308e+000
001

beta6 -1.5608135e+000

+6.6002316e-2.3647859e+000
001

+8.7388012e-1.7860727e+000 *
001

beta7 +1.2780518e+000

+2.6096696e+2.5564321e+4.8973700e+000
+4.9993574e+000
001
001

beta8 -6.4418620e-001

+8.3324801e-7.7310259e+000
002

beta9 +2.4354887e-002

+6.1068524e+6.1283579e+3.9881245e+000
+3.9741294e+000
003
003

+8.2553507e-7.8032567e+000
002

Model parameters
Name

Value

Std err

NESTA +1.3685913e+000

t-test 0

t-test 1

Robust Std
err

+1.7014674e+1.8412169e+8.0435940e+000 +2.1663140e+000
+7.4330
001
001

NESTB +5.0000000e-001 fixed

NESTC +5.0000000e-001 fixed
Scale parameters
Name

Value

Robus

Std err t-test 1 Robust Std err Robust t-test 1

Scale1 +1.0000000e+000 fixed

Utility functions
1 Alt1 avtship

ASC1 * one + beta1 * tstime + beta3 * tscost + beta10 * year2001 +

beta11 * driver

2 Alt2 avnship

ASC2 * one + beta1 * nstime + beta3 * nshcost + beta5 *

lowincome + beta6 * highage + beta7 * soldier + beta10 * year2001
+ beta11 * driver

ASC3 * one + beta2 * airtime + beta4 * aircost + beta5 *

3 Alt3 avolympi lowincome + beta6 * highage + beta7 * soldier + beta8 *
loweducation + beta9 * frequency
ASC4 * one + beta2 * aegtime + beta4 * aegcost + beta5 *
4 Alt4 avaegean lowincome + beta6 * highage + beta7 * soldier + beta8 *
loweducation + beta9 * frequency
Smallest singular value of the hessian: +1.9922046e+000

85

 Mixed Logit

BIOGEME Version 1.3 [Wed Sep 21 16:53:38 GMT 2005]

Author: Michel Bierlaire, EPFL (2001-2005)
This file has automatically been generated.
10/09/05 15:39:11
Note that ASC1 is constrained to 0.0 and will not be estimated
Model: Mixed Multinomial Logit
Number of draws: 250
Number of estimated parameters: 17
Sample size: 3102
Null log-likelihood: -2765.64
Init log-likelihood: -2765.64
Final log-likelihood: -2293.54
Likelihood ratio test: 944.202
Rho-square: 0.170702
Adjusted rho-square: 0.164556
Final gradient norm: 0.0204788
Variance-covariance: from finite difference hessian
Utility parameters
Name

Value

Std err

t-test

Robust Std err

Robust t-test

ASC1

+0.0000000e+000 fixed

ASC2

+3.2567226e-001 +1.8892969e-001 +1.7237749e+000 * +2.2412225e-001 +1.4531010e+000 *

ASC3

+3.8590184e+000 +9.3082166e-001 +4.1458193e+000

ASC4

-2.1327533e+000 +3.9976661e+000 -5.3349962e-001 * +4.5220929e+000 -4.7162971e-001 *

+1.1450671e+000 +3.3701242e+000

SIGMA1 -6.7556678e-001 +5.9706238e-001 -1.1314844e+000 * +8.0958448e-001 -8.3446113e-001 *

SIGMA2 +9.5343442e-001 +5.6216742e-001 +1.6959973e+000 * +7.1078587e-001 +1.3413807e+000 *
SIGMA3 +7.9208667e+000 +4.7041003e+000 +1.6838218e+000 * +5.6678567e+000 +1.3975065e+000 *
ZERO

+0.0000000e+000 fixed

beta1

-4.8787050e-003 +9.6048239e-004 -5.0794321e+000

+1.0812201e-003 -4.5122221e+000

beta10

+1.3804928e+000 +3.4013894e-001 +4.0586144e+000

+4.3283691e-001 +3.1894064e+000

beta11

+7.0245392e-001 +2.0574495e-001 +3.4141976e+000

+2.0955799e-001 +3.3520742e+000

beta2

-3.8374396e-002 +1.0942683e-002 -3.5068544e+000

+1.2832315e-002 -2.9904500e+000

beta3

-6.4242549e-002 +1.0110354e-002 -6.3541345e+000

+1.1774585e-002 -5.4560352e+000

beta4

-8.5995720e-002 +1.4075322e-002 -6.1096803e+000

+1.6577183e-002 -5.1875954e+000

86

beta5

-8.0167755e-001 +2.3052828e-001 -3.4775670e+000

+2.3268440e-001 -3.4453429e+000

beta6

-2.2636710e+000 +9.2661685e-001 -2.4429417e+000

+1.1585483e+000 -1.9538858e+000 *

beta7

+1.6422901e+000 +3.8203978e-001 +4.2987410e+000

+3.6492055e-001 +4.5004045e+000

beta8

-7.9495187e-001 +1.6216593e-001 -4.9020891e+000

+1.8024824e-001 -4.4103169e+000

beta9

+3.0750236e-002 +8.7369630e-003 +3.5195567e+000

Scale parameters

+9.4690958e-003 +3.2474311e+000

Name

Value

Std err t-test 1 Robust Std err Robust t-test 1

Scale1 +1.0000000e+000 fixed

Variance of random coefficients
Name

Value

Std err

t-test

ZERO_SIGMA1 +4.5639048e-001 +1.6134219e+000

+2.8287113e001

ZERO_SIGMA2 +9.0903720e-001 +2.1439591e+000

+4.2399933e001

ZERO_SIGMA3 +6.2740130e+001 +1.4904220e+002

+4.2095546e001

Robust Robust
Std err t-test

Utility functions
1 Alt1 avtship

ASC1 * one + beta1 * tstime + beta3 * tscost + beta10 * year2001 +

beta11 * driver

2 Alt2 avnship

ASC2 * one + beta1 * nstime + beta3 * nshcost + beta5 *

lowincome + beta6 * highage + beta7 * soldier + beta10 * year2001
+ beta11 * driver + ZERO [ SIGMA1 ] * one

ASC3 * one + beta2 * airtime + beta4 * aircost + beta5 *

3 Alt3 avolympi lowincome + beta6 * highage + beta7 * soldier + beta8 *
loweducation + beta9 * frequency + ZERO [ SIGMA2 ] * one
ASC4 * one + beta2 * aegtime + beta4 * aegcost + beta5 *
4 Alt4 avaegean lowincome + beta6 * highage + beta7 * soldier + beta8 *
loweducation + beta9 * frequency + ZERO [ SIGMA3 ] * one
Smallest singular value of the hessian: +2.6317198e-002

87

BIOGEME Version 1.3 [Wed Sep 21 16:53:38 GMT 2005]

Author: Michel Bierlaire, EPFL (2001-2005)
This file has automatically been generated.
10/09/05 16:05:13
Note that ASC1 is constrained to 0.0 and will not be estimated
Model: Multinomial Logit
Number of estimated parameters: 15
Sample size: 3102
Null log-likelihood: -2765.64
Init log-likelihood: -2765.64
Final log-likelihood: -2298.83
Likelihood ratio test: 933.608
Rho-square: 0.168787
Adjusted rho-square: 0.163363
Final gradient norm: 0.0196225
Variance-covariance: from finite difference hessian
Utility parameters
Name

Value

Std err

t-test

Robust Std
err

Robust t-test

ASC1 +0.0000000e+000 fixed

ASC2 +2.1195130e-001

+1.4633362e+1.4820017e+1.4484115e+000 *
+1.4301691e+000 *
001
001

ASC3 +2.0996133e+000

+4.9936882e+4.2045342e+000
001

+5.3121057e+3.9525066e+000
001

ASC4 +1.8224597e+000

+5.1304202e+3.5522620e+000
001

+5.3358608e+3.4154932e+000
001

beta1 -4.3422631e-003

+5.8038737e-7.4816636e+000
004

+5.8104494e-7.4731966e+000
004

beta10 +8.0151052e-001

+1.4917156e+5.3730784e+000
001

+1.5275842e+5.2469155e+000
001

beta11 +6.6087849e-001

+1.4523902e+4.5502820e+000
001

+1.4218177e+4.6481240e+000
001

beta12 +4.0947844e-001

+9.3690311e+4.3705527e+000
002

+9.2353587e+4.4338120e+000
002

beta2 -1.8937609e-002 +6.3539345e- -2.9804539e+000

+6.3361520e- -2.9888186e+000

88

003

003

beta3 -5.1949085e-002

+2.8448047e-1.8261037e+001
003

+2.8891768e-1.7980583e+001
003

beta4 -6.5185503e-002

+3.4781243e-1.8741568e+001
003

+3.6290119e-1.7962328e+001
003

beta5 -8.3001230e-001

+1.8905821e-4.3902473e+000
001

+1.8744967e-4.4279209e+000
001

beta6 -1.8803972e+000

+7.7403684e-2.4293381e+000
001

+8.8629667e-2.1216341e+000
001

beta7 +1.5127538e+000

+2.9534959e+5.1219093e+000
001

+2.8857728e+5.2421099e+000
001

beta8 -6.6318381e-001

+8.4050417e-7.8903096e+000
002

+8.3895851e-7.9048463e+000
002

beta9 +2.0297702e-002

+6.2736604e+3.2353842e+000
003

+6.3718777e+3.1855134e+000
003

Scale parameters
Name

Value

Std err t-test 1 Robust Std err Robust t-test 1

Scale1 +1.0000000e+000 fixed

Utility functions
1 Alt1 avtship

ASC1 * one + beta1 * tstime + beta3 * tscost + beta10 * year2001 +

beta11 * driver

2 Alt2 avnship

ASC2 * one + beta1 * nstime + beta3 * nshcost + beta5 *

lowincome + beta6 * highage + beta7 * soldier + beta10 * year2001
+ beta11 * driver

ASC3 * one + beta2 * airtime + beta4 * aircost + beta5 *

3 Alt3 avolympi lowincome + beta6 * highage + beta7 * soldier + beta8 *
loweducation + beta9 * frequency + beta12 * work
ASC4 * one + beta2 * aegtime + beta4 * aegcost + beta5 *
4 Alt4 avaegean lowincome + beta6 * highage + beta7 * soldier + beta8 *
loweducation + beta9 * frequency + beta12 * work
Smallest singular value of the hessian: +1.6671399e+000

89


BIOGEME Version 1.3 [Wed Sep 21 16:53:38 GMT 2005]
Author: Michel Bierlaire, EPFL (2001-2005)
This file has automatically been generated.
10/10/05 16:41:07
Note that ASC1 is constrained to 0.0 and will not be estimated
Model: Multinomial Logit
Number of estimated parameters: 12
Sample size: 936
Null log-likelihood: -793.131
Init log-likelihood: -793.131
Final log-likelihood: -629.993
Likelihood ratio test: 326.276
Rho-square: 0.205689
Adjusted rho-square: 0.190559
Final gradient norm: 0.00559392
Variance-covariance: from finite difference hessian
Utility parameters
Name

Value

Std err

t-test

Robust Std err

Robust t-test

ASC1 +0.0000000e+000 fixed

ASC2 -3.1920894e-001

+2.9145105e-1.0952403e+000 * +2.8616757e-001 -1.1154616e+000 *

001

ASC3 +2.5363288e+000

+9.5029915e+2.6689794e+000
001

+1.0067073e+000 +2.5194303e+000

ASC4 +2.3202707e+000

+9.8657075e+2.3518544e+000
001

+1.0223556e+000 +2.2695340e+000

beta1 -5.2318614e-003

+1.0977554e-4.7659628e+000
003

+1.0791489e-003 -4.8481366e+000

beta2 -2.2488405e-002

+1.3682513e-1.6435873e+000 * +1.3726241e-002 -1.6383513e+000 *

002

beta3 -5.3620930e-002

+5.2128594e-1.0286280e+001
003

+5.1047204e-003 -1.0504185e+001

beta4 -6.9150570e-002

+6.5835911e-1.0503473e+001
003

+7.0473651e-003 -9.8122587e+000

beta5 -1.0277450e+000

+1.6035589e-6.4091505e+000
001

+1.5833959e-001 -6.4907646e+000

90

beta6 +1.4291488e+000

+2.7364064e+5.2227211e+000
001

+2.8879818e-001 +4.9486073e+000

beta7 +5.2878748e-001

+1.9878905e+2.6600432e+000
001

+2.0095245e-001 +2.6314060e+000

beta8 +2.2512737e+000

+7.4708948e+3.0133924e+000
001

+7.3776992e-001 +3.0514577e+000

beta9 +1.0368696e+000

+3.5437759e+2.9258894e+000
001

+3.5184200e-001 +2.9469752e+000

Scale parameters
Name

Value

Std err t-test 1 Robust Std err Robust t-test 1

Scale1 +1.0000000e+000 fixed

Utility functions
1 Alt1 avtship

ASC1 * one + beta1 * tstime + beta3 * tscost + beta6 * year2001 +

beta7 * driver

2 Alt2 avnship

ASC2 * one + beta1 * nstime + beta3 * nshcost + beta6 * year2001

+ beta7 * driver + beta8 * middleage + beta9 * tradesman

3 Alt3 avolympi

ASC3 * one + beta2 * airtime + beta4 * aircost + beta5 *

loweducation + beta8 * middleage + beta9 * tradesman

4 Alt4 avaegean

ASC4 * one + beta2 * aegtime + beta4 * aegcost + beta5 *

loweducation + beta8 * middleage + beta9 * tradesman

Smallest singular value of the hessian: +5.2789932e-001

91

BIOGEME Version 1.3 [Wed Sep 21 16:53:38 GMT 2005]

Author: Michel Bierlaire, EPFL (2001-2005)
This file has automatically been generated.
10/10/05 17:55:51
Note that ASC1 is constrained to 0.0 and will not be estimated
Model: Multinomial Logit
Number of estimated parameters: 13
Sample size: 703
Null log-likelihood: -636.088
Init log-likelihood: -636.088
Final log-likelihood: -545.575
Likelihood ratio test: 181.026
Rho-square: 0.142296
Adjusted rho-square: 0.121859
Final gradient norm: 0.00181562
Variance-covariance: from finite difference hessian
Utility parameters
Name

Value

Std err

t-test

Robust Std err

Robust t-test

ASC1 +0.0000000e+000 fixed

ASC2 +1.0202941e-001 +3.0529741e-001 +3.3419677e-001 * +3.1135524e-001 +3.2769453e-001 *
ASC3 +1.9881769e+000 +9.7898694e-001 +2.0308513e+000

+1.0554120e+000 +1.8837922e+000 *

ASC4 +1.4654055e+000 +1.0000973e+000 +1.4652629e+000 * +1.0508487e+000 +1.3944972e+000 *

beta1 -4.3858825e-003 +1.2137728e-003 -3.6134295e+000

+1.1998958e-003 -3.6552196e+000

beta10 +8.1133308e-001 +3.7338450e-001 +2.1729158e+000

+3.5195091e-001 +2.3052450e+000

beta2 -1.6303861e-002 +1.1892858e-002 -1.3708951e+000 * +1.1632765e-002 -1.4015465e+000 *

beta3 -3.3099906e-002 +5.8733879e-003 -5.6355729e+000

+6.0482510e-003 -5.4726409e+000

beta4 -5.5161189e-002 +6.6346219e-003 -8.3141422e+000

+6.7095854e-003 -8.2212515e+000

beta5 -1.3169151e+000 +4.9541346e-001 -2.6582143e+000

+4.6222073e-001 -2.8491045e+000

beta6 -1.9000898e+000 +8.8816444e-001 -2.1393446e+000

+9.7938179e-001 -1.9400910e+000 *

beta7 -5.7573212e-001 +1.7057988e-001 -3.3751467e+000

+1.7245023e-001 -3.3385408e+000

beta8 +3.9096097e-002 +1.2922098e-002 +3.0255223e+000

+1.3395430e-002 +2.9186146e+000

beta9 +6.2997237e-001 +3.0056039e-001 +2.0959926e+000

+3.0422580e-001 +2.0707394e+000

92

Scale parameters
Name

Value

Std err t-test 1 Robust Std err Robust t-test 1

Scale1 +1.0000000e+000 fixed

Utility functions
1 Alt1 avtship

ASC1 * one + beta1 * tstime + beta3 * tscost + beta9 * year2001 +

beta10 * driver

2 Alt2 avnship

ASC2 * one + beta1 * nstime + beta3 * nshcost + beta5 *

lowincome + beta6 * highage + beta9 * year2001 + beta10 * driver

ASC3 * one + beta2 * airtime + beta4 * aircost + beta5 *

3 Alt3 avolympi lowincome + beta6 * highage + beta7 * loweducation + beta8 *
frequency
ASC4 * one + beta2 * aegtime + beta4 * aegcost + beta5 *
4 Alt4 avaegean lowincome + beta6 * highage + beta7 * loweducation + beta8 *
frequency
Smallest singular value of the hessian: +5.0389005e-001

93