Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Urrent State: September 2008
Urrent State: September 2008
Of
Indian Economy
September 2008
F e d e r a t i o n o f I n d i a n C h a m b e r s o f C o m m e r c e a n d I n d us tr y
New Delhi
----- Recent Trends in Indian Economy -----
Industrial Growth :
The recent data on industrial production for July 2008 shows an improvement in the industrial growth
over the previous months. The industrial growth was found to gradually pick up in July 2008-09
compared to the growth posted in the previous months of this year.
However the growth during the four - month period (April- July) of the current fiscal remains much
lower than the growth numbers recorded in the corresponding months of the last fiscal.
During the April- July period of 2008-09 growth in the manufacturing and electricity sector
accelerated compared to the growth registered in the previous months of this year. However the
growth performance remains weak when compared to the growth of last fiscal. The increase in
production was witnessed only in the mining sector surpassing the growth posted in the previous
year.
Further following the use-based classification we see growth in intermediate and basic goods in July
2008 was subdued as against the growth in the same month of the previous year. Output in the
capital goods sector however increased by 22% in July this year compared to 12.3% increase in the
same month of previous year. The growth in the consumer goods came mainly from the consumer
durables segment that increased by 11.2% compared to the negative growth posted in the
corresponding month of last year.
In July 2008-09 growth in seven among the seventeen industry sectors namely food products,
beverages and tobacco, paper, metal products, machinery, transport equipments and other
manufactured items exceeded the growths posted in the previous year. While basic metals, non-
metallic minerals and basic chemicals slowed in July 2008-09 compared to the corresponding month
of the previous year, production of 6 industry sectors namely rubber, leather, wood, jute, wool and
cotton was found to drop.
The sharp difference in the rate of inflation between now and last year has been mainly on account
of a sharp rise in the price index of fuel and some manufactured items. Measures to curb the rising
food articles and other manufactured commodity prices have been put in place, however these only
showed a marginal impact on the rising price index. The fall in fuel prices from its peak USD 147 /
barrel to below USD 100/barrel is yet to be captured in the recent price index.
Monetary Indicators:
Money supply swelled by 5.2% (percentage rise is August end 2008 numbers over March end 2008)
in August 2008 as against 5.1% in the same month of previous year. Borrowings by the government
went up by 7.4% compared to 5.7% in the previous year. Despite rising interest rates bank credit to
the commercial sector rose by 4.2% as against 1.7% recorded previously. The borrowings are high
due to the huge demands in the oil sector. Foreign exchange assets build-up was significant in
August 2008 compared to the growth seen in the previous month of this fiscal, but was found to be
lower when compared to 5.9% rise seen in the previous year.
There has been high accumulation in aggregate deposits during August 2008. Growth in investments
in the government and other approved securities shows a sharp deceleration compared to the
growth seen in the previous year.
Interest rates including the PLR (13-14%) and the deposit rates cycles have peaked and any further
tightening of money supply can hamper industrial growth.
3
Foreign Trade:
Despite odds (raw material prices, high borrowing rates, losses due to forward contracts) the country
did export goods worth USD 60 billion, posting 24.6% growth during the first four months of 2008-09
as compared to 18.22% in the previous year. The reason ascribed to high exports growth was
increased demand in some of the international markets.
The weakening of Rupee has helped the exporters to recover their (those who have not hedged their
funds) losses made in the past. However, those who opted for a forward cover during the days when
Rupee was maintaining Rs 38-40, failed to insulate themselves from the quick and sharp weakening
of Rupee. The import bill swells due to obvious reasons and widens the trade deficit even further.
Capital Inflows:
In the fourth month of 2008-09 foreign investments continue to pour into the Indian market. The
country received foreign investments of 6 billion in excess of the investments made during the four-
month period of the previous year. Due to weak investor sentiments portfolio investments turned to a
negative USD 4.6 billion, reducing total foreign investments to USD 7.6 billion in July 2008 as
against USD 20.7 billion in same period of previous year.
4
Contents
Title Page
1 Industrial Growth 7
3 Trends in Inflation 9
4 Monetary Indicators 10
6 Fiscal Management 15
7 Foreign Trade 17
8 Capital Inflows 18
5
LIST OF TABLES
6
1. Industrial Growth
July July
Weights
2007-08 2008-09
Industry 100 8.3 7.1
Mining 10.2 3.2 5.0
Manufacturing 79.4 8.8 7.5
Electricity 10.5 7.5 9.5
Use Based Classification
Basic 35.6 8.7 5.9
Intermediate 26.5 7.7 1.6
Capital 9.3 12.3 21.9
Consumer Goods 28.7 7.1 7.3
Consumer non Durables 23.3 10.5 6.1
Consumer Durables 5.4 -2.7 11.2
16 industry sectors
Food Products 9.1 -4.4 5.7
Beverages, Tobacco and Related Products 2.4 8.8 28.6
Cotton Textiles 5.5 6.3 -4.8
Wool, Silk and man-made fibre textiles 2.3 5.6 -9.2
Jute and other vegetable fibre Textiles (except
cotton) 0.6 16.1 -0.5
Textile Products (including Wearing Apparel) 2.5 4.0 0.0
Wood and Wood Products; Furniture and
Fixtures 2.7 66.7 -9.1
Paper & Paper Products and Printing,
Publishing & Allied Industries 2.6 -5.8 3.6
Leather and Leather & Fur Products 1.1 8.8 -4.9
Basic Chemicals & Chemical Products (except
products of Petroleum & Coal) 14.0 15.8 4.0
Rubber, Plastic, Petroleum and Coal Products 5.7 8.4 -1.9
Non-Metallic Mineral Products 4.4 10.6 3.1
Basic Metal and Alloy Industries 7.5 17.7 9.2
Metal Products and Parts, except Machinery
and Equipment 2.8 -6.2 5.2
Machinery and Equipment other than Transport
equipment 9.6 8.9 16.0
Transport Equipment and Parts 4.0 -2.8 18.7
Other Manufacturing Industries 2.5 3.5 13.9
Source: Central Statistical Organization
All infrastructure
Finished steel Cement Crude petroleum
industries
2007- 2008- 2007- 2008- 2007- 2008 2007- 2008-
08 09 08 09 08 -09 08 09
April 5.9 3.6 2.7 4.0 5.8 6.9 1.4 0.9
May 7.8 3.5 8.4 5.2 9.9 3.8 -1.6 3.2
June 5.3 3.4 5.6 4.4 6.0 6.5 -0.7 -4.7
July 7.2 4.3 10.8 1.9 9.4 8.8 0.9 -3.0
August 9.0 8.5 16.2 6.4
September 6.0 10.3 5.0 -0.7
October 4.5 4.8 7.0 -0.1
November 5.3 5.8 4.5 0.3
December 4.0 5.1 3.9 -1.5
January 4.2 5.5 5.2 -0.2
February 8.7 8.2 12.4 2.3
March 9.6 21.8 9.3 -0.3
April- July 6.6 3.7 6.8 3.8 7.7 6.5 -0.7 -0.9
Source: Ministry of Industry
3. Inflation Trends
8
Table-3.1. Monthly trends in Wholesale price index- monthly average (% change)
2007-08 2008-09
July August July August
All Commodities 4.71 4.14 12.22 12.49
I Primary Article 10.72 9.18 10.56 11.41
(A) Food Articles 9.75 8.52 5.79 6.92
(B) Non-Food Articles 14.13 12.42 16.88 16.95
II Fuel Power Light & Lubricants -1.56 -1.96 17.10 17.23
III Manufactured Products 4.93 4.64 11.01 11.11
(A) Food Products 3.42 3.00 13.96 13.90
(B) Beverages, Tobacco & Tobacco Products 12.62 11.05 8.58 7.76
(C) Textiles 1.35 0.74 6.25 8.16
(D) Wood & Wood Products 7.15 7.15 9.77 9.77
(E) Paper & Paper Products 2.52 2.04 3.31 3.01
(F) Leather & Leather Products 7.18 7.21 0.66 0.63
(G) Rubber & Plastic Products 6.43 6.44 6.52 6.56
(H) Chemicals & Chemical Products 3.95 4.94 10.02 9.74
(I) Non-Metallic Mineral Products 8.56 9.31 4.40 4.20
(J) Basic Metals Alloys & Metals Products 6.38 5.11 22.67 23.01
(K) Machinery & Machine Tools 8.85 8.49 5.96 5.60
(L) Transport Equipment & Parts 2.02 1.18 5.83 5.65
Source: RBI
4. Monetary Indicators:
9
Table-4.1: Monetary sector indicators – up to August ( August 2008-09 over March 2007-08)
10
Variation in net foreign exchange Variation in net foreign
assets of banks (Rs crore) exchange assets of banks
(%)
2007-08 2008-09 2007-08 2008-09
April -28024 18732 -3.0 1.5
May -35519 113765 -3.9 9.0
June -17945 103932 2.0 8.0
July 12534 75552 1.4 5.8
August 54117 54821 5.9 4.2
September 101485 11.1
October 153944 16.9
November 194112 21.3
December 194985 21.4
January 267735 29.3
February 318273 34.9
March 354704 38.8
Variation in non-monetary liabilities Variation in non-monetary
of banks (Rs crore) liabilities of banks (%)
2007-08 2008-09 2007-08 2008-09
April -38474 -25665 -6.7 -3.5
May -71601 71891 -12.9 9.7
June -94033 94555 -16.5 12.2
July -59345 62244 -10.4 8.0
August -29287 19970 -5.1 2.6
September -19238 3.4
October -20033 -3.5
November 13804 2.4
December 13208 2.3
January 39506 6.9
February 121932 21.3
March 114893 20.1
2007-08 2008-09
April 3366 -3375
May -3079 3980
June -2564 5748
July -5462 -508
August -8031 -56
September -9512
October -10654
November -8823
December -5509
January -5329
February -2209
March -2121
12
Variation in non-food credit of SCB
(Rs crore)
2007-08 2008-09
April -46718 -16052
May -37356 6474
June -33784 24786
July -11213 45029
August 39151 96476
September 105998
October 107620
November 154803
December 224689
January 283728
February 324509
March 419426
Source: Reserve Bank of India
13
5. Stock Market Trends
14
6. Fiscal Management
15
receipts
Recovery of loans 997 854 -57.4 -14.3
Total receipts 98655 118740 23.8 20.4
Non plan expenditure 168244 158688 40.1 -5.7
On revenue account 128094 153414 11.3 19.8
On capital account 40150 5274 693.2 -86.9
Plan expenditure 59819 76032 30.1 27.1
On revenue account 49597 64668 22.5 30.4
On capital account 10222 11364 86.8 11.2
Total expenditure 228063 234720 37.3 2.9
Fiscal deficit 129408 115980 49.8 -10.4
Revenue deficit 82400 100213 5.4 21.6
Primary deficit 80472 63979 74.1 -20.5
Source: Controller General of Accounts
16
7. Foreign Trade
17
8. Capital Inflows
18
9. Foreign Exchange Reserves
19
10. Trends in the Exchange Rates
48 80
46
60
Re/Euro
Re/USD
44
42
40
40
38 2006- 2007-08 2008-09 20
36
34 0
May
May
May
Nov
Nov
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Jan
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Jan
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Jul
Jul
Jul
Oct
Oct
Dec
Dec
Mar
Mar
Feb
Feb
USD Euro
20