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CHN MU TRONG NGHIN CU IU TRA

CHNG 3

3.1. Cc khi nim c bn

Tng th L tp hp cc n v (phn t) thuc hin tng nghin cu, cn c quan st, thu thp v phn tch theo mt hoc mt s c trng no - Tng th bc l v tng th tim n - Tng th ng cht v tng th khng ng cht q Mu L mt s n v c chn ra t tng th chung theo mt phng php ly mu no
q

3.1. Cc khi nim c bn

q iu tra chn mu L loi iu tra khng ton b, trong ngi ta chn mt s ln n v i din trong ton b cc n v ca tng th chung iu tra ri dng kt qu thu thp c tnh ton, suy rng thnh cc c im ca ton b tng th chung

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3.1. Cc khi nim c bn

-

u im
+ + + +

Tit kim c chi ph v ngun lc Tit kim c thi gian Thng tin thu thp c chnh xc cao hn C nhng trng hp bt buc

Hn ch

3.2. K thut chn mu c bn

C hai phng php chn mu c bn:
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Chn mu xc sut (chn mu ngu nhin) Chn mu phi xc sut

3.2.1. Chn mu xc sut

L cch ly mu trong vic la chn cc c th trong tng th sao cho mi c th c c hi la chn l nh nhau Quy trnh: - Xc nh khung chn mu - Xc nh kch thc mu - La chn k thut ly mu ph hp - Kim tra tnh i din ca mu

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3.2.1. Chn mu xc sut

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C 5 phng php chn mu xc sut: Chn mu ngu nhin n gin Chn mu h thng Chn mu theo khi Chn mu nhiu giai on Chn mu phn tng

Chn mu ngu nhin n gin

F

Cch tin hnh

+

Lp danh sch cc n v ca tng th chung theo mt trt t no

+ +

nh s th t cc n v trong danh sch Rt thm, dng bng s ngu nhin, hoc dng my tnh chn ra tng n v trong tng th chung vo mu

Chn mu ngu nhin n gin

V d: Yu cu ca nghin cu Ly ngu nhin 100 sinh vin trong danh sch 1000 sinh vin ti ca mt trng i hc - 100 sinh vin ny khng trng nhau F Cch 1: bc thm ngu nhin F Cch 2: chn mu ngu nhin bng bng s F Cch 3: chn mu ngu nhin bng chng trnh my tnh (excel)
F -

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Chn mu ngu nhin h thng

F

Cch tin hnh

+ + + + +

Lp danh sch cc n v ca tng th theo mt trt t no . Tng s n v trong danh sch tng th l N nh s th t ca cc n v trong danh sch Xc nh kch thc mu mun chn, chng hn nh n Xc nh khong cch chn mu k vi k = N/n Chn ngu nhin n gin mt n v bng phng php chn mu ngu nhin n gin. Cc n v tip theo c ly cch n v u tin mt khong l 1k, 2k, 3k

Chn mu ngu nhin h thng

F

Trng hp 1: Ly mu h thng ng thng (linear systematic sampling)

Trng hp 2: Ly mu h thng quay vng (circular systematic sampling)

Chn mu theo khi

F

Cch tin hnh

+ +

Lp danh sch tng th chung theo tng khi Chn ngu nhin mt s khi v iu tra tt c cc n v trong khi chn Mi phn t hay n v ca tng th ch c phn vo mt khi Mi khi cha nhiu phn t khc nhau v du hiu nghin cu Phn chia cc khi tng i ng u nhau v quy m

Nhng iu cn lu
+ + +

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Chn mu nhiu giai on

F

Cch tin hnh

+

Phn chia tng th chung thnh cc n v cp I, ri chn cc n v mu cp I Phn chia mi n v mu cp I thnh cc n v cp II, ri chn cc n v mu cp II

V d

Chn mu phn tng

F

Cch tin hnh

+ +

Tng th c phn chia thnh cc nhm theo mt tiu thc hay nhiu tiu thc Trong tng nhm, dng cch chn mu ngu nhin n gin/chn mu h thng chn ra cc n v mu Mu phn tng t l Mu phn tng khng t l

Cc loi mu:
+ +

Trng hp p dng Phi c c thng tin chi tit v mt s c im ca tng th ph hp vi mc tiu nghin cu

Chn mu ngu nhin h thng

F

V d: Nghin cu v cht lng cuc sng ca mt vng c 4 huyn (4 phn tng)

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Chn mu ngu nhin h thng

F

Cc tiu thc ph bin c chn

+ + + + +

Theo a l: tnh, thnh ph, huyn Mc giu ngho (thu nhp) Gii tnh: nam, n Quc tch: quc t, ni a Hnh thc s hu: t nhn, nh nc, c phn

3.2.2. Chn mu phi xc sut

-

L k thut chn mu m cc n v trong tng th chung khng c kh nng ngang nhau c chn vo mu nghin cu (khng c xc sut la chn ging nhau) Gm 4 phng php chn mu phi xc sut
+ + + +

Chn mu thun tin Chn mu nh mc Chn mu phn on Chn mu pht trin mm

Chn mu thun tin

Chn mu da trn s thun li hay da trn tnh d tip cn ca i tng iu tra, nhng ni m nhn vin iu tra c nhiu kh nng gp c i tng c im: - D thc hin
-

Khng ngu nhin Khng c tnh tiu biu cao

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Chn mu phn on
L k thut m phng vn vin l ngi t a ra phn on v i tng cn chn vo mu Tnh i din ca mu kho st thc t ph thuc vo kin thc v kinh nghim ca iu tra vin

Chn mu hn mc
F

Cch tin hnh

+ +

Phn nhm tng th theo mt tiu thc no Dng k thut chn mu thun tin chn ra cc n v trong tng nhm tin hnh iu tra

V d: chn mu hn mc, mt thuc tnh kim sot

Chn mu hn mc
F

V d: chn mu hn mc, hai thuc tnh kim sot

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Chn mu pht trin mm

L cch chn mu da trn s gii thiu ca cc n v nghin cu c chn cho n khi s lng mu yu cu

3.3. Xc nh kch thc mu

3.3.1. Cc khi nim c bn Sai s do chn mu - Khong tin cy - tin cy
-

Sai s do chn mu
Sai s do chn mu: l sai s cho php khi chn mu v c o bng s chnh lch gia cc ch tiu tnh c trong iu tra chn mu vi cc ch tiu tng ng ca tng th Sai s do chn mu c k hiu l . Trong kinh t, ngi ta thng chn t 1 5% Sai s do chn mu ph thuc cc yu t - S n v mu chn ra - Phng php chn mu

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Khong tin cy v tin cy

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Khong tin cy: l khong m gi tr ca tham s tng th dao ng trong tin cy: l xc sut khi ta c lng gi tr tham s ca tng th nm trong khong tin cy . tin cy c k hiu l 1 (theo n v xc sut) hoc 100(1 )% (theo n v %)

3.3. Xc nh kch thc mu

E E E

Mu cng ln th tnh i din cng cao Nhng mu cng ln cng tn km Mc ch ca vic xc nh kch thc mu
+ +

Chn mu c tnh i din cho tng th Gim chi ph, thi gian v cng sc

3.3. Xc nh kch thc mu

3.3.2. Cc phng php xc nh kch thc mu C 2 phng php xc nh kch thc mu:
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Xc nh kch thc mu theo trung bnh Xc nh kch thc mu theo t l

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Xc nh kch thc mu theo trung bnh

Trong : n: kch thc mu z/2: gi tr ti hn tng ng vi tin cy (1 ) : lch chun tng th : sai s mu

Xc nh kch thc mu theo trung bnh

F

Xc nh lch chun tng th

+

Tham kho thng tin v trong nhng nghin cu tng t trc p dng quy tc 3 Tin hnh mt cuc iu tra th im khong 30 mu. Tnh lch chun mu s thay th cho lch chun tng th

+ +

Xc nh kch thc mu theo trung bnh

F

Nu bit c quy m ca tng th chung N th c 2 trng hp:

+ +

Nu t l n/N < 5% th ta s dng cng thc xc nh kch thc mu nh trn Nu t l n/N > 5% th ta c th dng cng thc sau xc nh kch thc mu sau nhm tit kim chi ph iu tra:

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Xc nh kch thc mu theo trung bnh

F

V d 1: Trng phng nhn s ca cng ty mun c lng s ngy ngh trung bnh trong nm ca nhn vin cng ty. Tm hiu cc cng ty tng t th ngi ny bit tng th s ngy ngh m c phn phi chun vi lch chun l 3 ngy. Nu mun khong tin cy l 85% ca trung bnh tng th chnh lch trong khong 0,5 ngy so vi trung bnh mu th cn chn mu gm bao nhiu vin?

Xc nh kch thc mu theo trung bnh

Ta c: = 3 ; = 0,5 ; 1 = 85% => z/2 = 1,44 Kch thc mu cn chn:

1,44 x3 z n = /2 = = 74,6 0,5

2

Xc nh kch thc mu theo trung bnh

F

V d 2: Mt cng ty mun tm hiu mc hi lng ca khch hng v sn phm mi c ph thuc vo tui khch hng hay khng. Cng ty tin hnh nghin cu s b trn mt mu gm 30 khch hng. Tui ca khch hng thu thp c ln lt nh sau. Cng ty chp nhn tin cy 90% ca trung bnh tng th chnh lch trong khong 0,5 tui so vi trung bnh mu th cng ty cn phi iu tra bao nhiu khch hng

28 24 39 31 20 21 25 21 26 22

23 19 22 37 30 26 29 25 29 32

30 21 22 33 35 27 27 28 29 27

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Xc nh kch thc mu theo trung bnh

Ta c: = 0,5 ; 1 = 90% => z/2 = 1,645 lch chun mu:
s=

(x
i =1

30

x)

30

= 4,99

Kch thc mu cn chn:

z s 1,645x4,99 n = /2 = = 269,83 0,5
2 2

Xc nh kch thc mu theo t l

n=
2 z / 2 p(1 p) 2

Trong : n: kch thc mu z/2: gi tr ti hn tng ng vi tin cy (1 ) p: t l tng th : sai s mu

Xc nh kch thc mu theo t l

F Xc
+ +

nh t l tng th p

Tham kho thng tin v p trong nhng nghin cu tng t trc n t cc i m bo rng n c c lng c ln an ton nht th p(1 p) cng phi t cc i. Khi p = 0,5 th p(1 p) t cc i. Tuy nhin, lm cch ny s ko theo s tn km chi ph v s lng mu gia tng ln rt nhiu

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Xc nh kch thc mu theo t l

q

Nu bit c quy m ca tng th chung N th c 2 trng hp:

n n

Nu t l n/N < 5% th ta s dng cng thc xc nh kch thc mu nh trn Nu t l n/N > 5% th ta c th dng cng thc sau xc nh kch thc mu sau nhm tit kim chi ph iu tra:

Xc nh kch thc mu theo t l

F V

d: Mt cng ty mun xc nh xem mc nhn bit thng hiu ca ngi tiu dng i vi cng ty mnh sau mt thi gian pht qung co trn truyn hnh. Cng ty ny hi lng vi kt qu nu sai s ca chn mu l = 0,04 v tin cy l 90%. Cng ty ny k vng t l ny c gi tr khong 60%. Cng ty nn chn mu bao nhiu ngi tiu dng iu tra?

Xc nh kch thc mu theo t l

Ta c : = 0,04 ; p = 0,6 1 = 90% => z/2 = 1,64 S ngi tiu dng cn phi iu tra:
n=
2 z / 2 p (1 p ) 1,64 2 x0,6 x(1 0,6) = = 403,44 404 2 0,04 2

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Mt s lu
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Cc trng hp tng kch thc mu

+ +

i vi mu cm, ta phi nhn thm vi h s thit k c gi tr t 2 n 4 Trong mt s tnh hung nht nh, khng phi lc no ngi tr li cng ng phng vn, do , khi tnh kch thc mu, ta phi ch n t l tr li ca ngi tham gia phng vn

ntt =
+

nmin 100 rtraloi (%)

nh l gii hn trung tm

Cc phng php xc nh kch thc mu khc

-

Da theo kinh nghim thc t ca nh nghin cu Xc nh kch thc mu theo kh nng v kinh ph iu tra

n=

Trong : C: tng kinh ph c cp C0: kinh ph cho cc khu chun b, tp hun nghip v, thu thp d liu, x l d liu v cc chi ph khc Z: chi ph cn thit cho tt c cc khu iu tra tnh cho mt n v iu tra

C C0 Z

V d
Gim c mt cng ty ng duyt chi 20 triu ng cho phng Marketing phng ny thc hin iu tra nhm nh gi mc nhn bit thng hiu ca ngi tiu dng i vi cng ty mnh. Theo kinh nghim ca nhng cuc iu tra trc, trng phng Marketing c tnh rng, kinh ph cho cc khu chun b v kinh ph chung vo khong 10 triu ng. Do iu tra vin chnh l nhng nhn vin trong phng nn tit kim c cc chi ph tp hun nghip v iu tra, thu thp d liuDo , chi ph cn thit cho tt c cc khu tnh cho mt n v iu tra l khong 70 nghn ng. Nh vy, vi ngn sch cho cuc iu tra nh vy, trng phng Marketing s quyt nh iu tra bao nhiu ngi tiu dng?

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V d
Ta c: C = 20.000.000 C0 = 10.000.000 Z = 70.000 Kch thc mu iu tra:
n= C C0 20.000.000 10.000.000 = 142,86 = Z 70.000

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