DAILY I FOREX REPORT

15THMARCH 2013

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HEADLINES

Dollar Holds 10,500 and its Bull Trend as Dow Breaks 16-Year Record EUR/USD And NZD/USD Break Lower, Which Looks Better

TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.2920 tgs 1.2900/1.2880 sl 1.2950

ECB Maintains Economic Recovery Forecast Ahead Of The EU Summit SNB Reveals Continued Determination to Maintain the 1.20 Franc Ceiling
THE TAKEAWAY: The SNB maintains a 1.20 Franc cap with utmost determination -> SNB leaves interest rate at 0.00% -> No significant changes to Franc trading
The Swiss National Bank will maintain the France ceiling against the Euro with utmost determination and is willing to buy unlimited quantities of foreign currencies, according to the announcement made after todays quarterly meting. The SNB also left the target interest rate at 0.00%, as was expected. The SNB last changed the interest rate in August 2011, cutting the rate from a previous 0.25% level. The SNB forecasts inflation at -0.2% for 2013, following a previous forecast of -0.1% for the current year. The 2014 inflation forecast was also lowered to 0.2% from 0.4%. The SNB also forecasted a 1-1.5% GDP growth in 2013. The central bank said the downside risks to the Swiss economy remain significant as it sees a risk of Euro-Area tensions returning.

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 96.50 tgt 96.70/96.90 SL 96.20

SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.4915 tgt 1.4895/1.4875 SL 1.4945

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.2959 HIGH: 1.2982 LOW: 1.2924 CLOSE: 1.2931

EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND : BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>-.000(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 33(BEARISH SIGNAL)

 HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 96.02 HIGH: 96.53 LOW: 95.68 CLOSE: 96.34

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD => -0.05( BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>62(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.4925 HIGH: 1.4958 LOW: 1.4915 CLOSE: 1.4947

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD => .002( BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 50(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8683 HIGH: 0.8685 LOW: 0.8652 CLOSE: 0.8653

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>26(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 82.8950 HIGH: 83.0650 LOW: 82.7600 CLOSE: 83.0440

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD =>0.79(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>66(BULLISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALENDER
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Mon Mar 11

JPY Japanese Parliament May Vote on BoJ Governor Nominations 00:01 GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (FEB) JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB P) EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JAN) EUR German Current Account (euros) (JAN) EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JAN) EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JAN) EUR German Labor Costs Workday Adj (YoY) (4Q) EUR German Labor Costs Seas. Adj. (QoQ) (4Q) CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (JAN) EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q F) EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q F) JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (FEB) JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (FEB) JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JAN)

High

Low

-44

-45

06:00

Medium

-21.5%

-26.4%

07:00

Medium

13.7B

13.9B

12.1B

07:00

Low

11.3B

10.5B

20.2B

07:00

Low

3.3%

0.7%

-1.5%

07:00

Low

1.4%

0.5%

0.2%

07:00

Low

2.9%

2.9%

07:00

Low

0.8%

0.2%

08:15

Medium

1.9%

4.7%

09:00

Medium

-0.9%

-0.9%

-0.9%

09:00

Medium

-2.8%

-2.7%

-2.7%

23:50

Low

0.3%

0.4%

23:50

Low

-0.1%

-0.2%

23:50

Medium

-0.2%

1.4%

23:50

JPY BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (1Q) JPY BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (1Q) EUR Germany Second Quarter Manpower Employment Outlook (Table) GBP RICS House Price Balance (FEB) AUD NAB Business Conditions (FEB) AUD NAB Business Confidence (FEB) AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (JAN) AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (JAN) JPY Consumer Confidence (FEB) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (FEB) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (FEB) EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB F) EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB F) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB F) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (FEB F) EUR Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) (FEB F) GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN) GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN) GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JAN) GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JAN) GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JAN)

Medium

-5.5

23:50

Medium

-10.3

Tue Mar 12

00:01

Low

00:01

Medium

-1%

-4%

00:30

Low

-2

00:30

Medium

00:30

Low

$A49.9B

00:30

Low

$A22.4B

05:00

Medium

43.3

07:00

Low

0.3%

07:00

Low

2.3%

07:00

Medium

0.6%

0.6%

07:00

High

1.5%

1.5%

07:00

Medium

0.8%

0.8%

07:00

High

1.8%

1.8%

09:00

Low

0.1%

09:30

Low

0.1%

1.1%

09:30

Medium

-1.1%

-1.7%

09:30

Low

0.0%

1.6%

09:30

Medium

-1.0%

-1.5%

09:30

Medium

-8950

-8897

09:30

GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (JAN) GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JAN) USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (FEB) USD JOLTs Job Openings (JAN) GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (FEB) USD Monthly Budget Statement (FEB) NZD Food Prices (MoM) (FEB) AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAR) AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAR) AUD Australia Manpower Survey (2Q) NZD New Zealand Manpower Survey (2Q)

Medium

-3200

-3201

09:30

Low

-4500

-4239

11:30

Low

90.0

88.9

14:00

Low

3617

15:00

Medium

0.0%

18:00

Medium

21:45

Low

1.9%

23:30

Medium

7.7%

23:30
Wed Mar 13

Low

108.3

Low

7%

Medium

15%

00:30

AUD Home Loans (JAN) AUD Investment Lending (JAN) AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (JAN) EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (4Q F) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 8) USD Import Price Index (MoM) (FEB) USD Import Price Index (YoY) (FEB) USD Advance Retail Sales (FEB) USD Retail Sales Less Autos (FEB)

Medium

0.5%

-1.5%

00:30

Low

-2.4%

00:30

Low

-2.7%

06:30

Low

-0.2%

-0.2%

10:00

Low

-0.1%

0.70%

10:00

Medium

-2.0%

-2.3%

11:00

Low

14.80%

12:30

Low

0.5%

0.6%

12:30

Low

-0.6%

-1.3%

12:30

High

0.5%

0.1%

12:30

Medium

0.5%

0.2%

12:30

USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (FEB) USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (FEB) USD Business Inventories (JAN) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 8) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 8) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 8) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 8) NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (MAR 14) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 8) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 8) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 8) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 8) AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAR) CNY China Manpower Survey (2Q) JPY Japan Manpower Survey (2Q) CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

0.2%

0.2%

12:30

Low

0.2%

0.1%

14:00

Medium

0.4%

0.1%

14:30

Low

3833K

14:30

Low

257K

14:30

Low

-616K

14:30

Low

-3830K

20:00

High

2.50%

2.50%

23:50

Low

23:50

Low

23:50

Low

657.8B

23:50

Low

269.6B

Thu Mar 14

00:00

Medium

2.2%

Low

14%

Low

11

Medium

-4.8%

-7.3%

00:30

AUD Employment Change (FEB) AUD Unemployment Rate (FEB) AUD Full Time Employment Change (FEB) AUD Part Time Employment Change (FEB) AUD Participation Rate (FEB) NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (FEB)

High

10.0K

10.4K

00:30

High

5.5%

5.4%

00:30

Medium

-9.8K

00:30

Medium

20.2K

00:30

Low

65.0%

65.0%

02:00

Low

66.7%

04:00

JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (FEB) JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN F) JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN F) JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JAN F) JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB F) CHF Swiss National Bank Rate Decision (MAR 14) EUR Euro-Zone Employment (QoQ) (4Q) EUR Euro-Zone Employment (YoY) (4Q) CAD Capacity Utilization Rate (4Q) USD Current Account Balance (4Q) CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (JAN) CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (JAN) USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (FEB) USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB) USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB) USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB) USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 10) USD Continuing Claims (MAR 3) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 8) USD Fed Releases Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (FEB)

Low

-5.4%

04:30

Low

1.0%

04:30

Medium

-5.1%

04:30

Low

2.9%

06:00

Medium

08:30

High

0.00%

0.00%

10:00

Low

-0.2%

10:00

Low

-0.7%

12:30

Low

12:30

Low

-$112.8B

-$107.5B

12:30

Low

0.2%

12:30

Low

2.3%

12:30

Medium

0.6%

0.2%

12:30

Medium

0.1%

0.2%

12:30

High

1.7%

1.4%

12:30

High

1.8%

12:30

Medium

340K

12:30

Low

3094K

14:30

Low

-146

20:30

Low

21:30

Medium

55.2

Fri Mar 15

EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (MAR) NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (MAR) CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (FEB) CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (FEB) EUR Itally General Government Debt (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Labor Costs (YoY) (4Q) USD Empire Manufacturing (MAR) USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB) USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB) USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB) USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB) USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (FEB) USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (FEB) USD Total Net TIC Flows (JAN) USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (JAN) CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (FEB) USD Industrial Production (FEB) USD Capacity Utilization (FEB)

Medium

00:00

Low

121

00:00

Low

2.3%

08:15

Low

-0.1%

08:15

Low

0.8%

09:30

Medium

1988.4B

10:00

Medium

0.4%

-1.0%

10:00

High

1.8%

1.8%

10:00

High

1.3%

1.3%

10:00

Low

2.0%

12:30

Low

10.04

12:30

Medium

0.4%

0.0%

12:30

Medium

0.2%

0.3%

12:30

High

1.8%

1.6%

12:30

High

2.0%

1.9%

12:30

Medium

232.138

232.108

12:30

Low

230.28

13:00

Low

$25.2B

13:00

Medium

$64.2B

13:00

Low

1.3%

13:15

Medium

0.3%

-0.1%

13:15

Low

79.3%

79.1%

13:15

USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (FEB)

Low

0.3%

-0.4%

13:55

USD U. of Michigan Confidence (MAR P)

Medium

78

77.6

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