DAILY I FOREX REPORT

18THMARCH 2013

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HEADLINES

Forex: EUR/USD- Trading the U.S. Consumer Price Report US Dollar Breaks Trend Support, S&P 500 Eyes Record High

TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3070 tgs 1.3090/1.3110 sl 1.3040

Euro to Overlook CPI, Aussie to Follow Dollar Higher on US Data

Euro Unlikely to Find Volatility in CPI Data, EU Summit Outcome US Dollar, Aussie May Rise on Another Supportive Set of US Data New Zealand Dollar Sold as Consumer Confidence Gauge Slumps
Februarys Eurozone CPI report headlines a quiet European economic calendar. Expectations call for the headline year-on-year inflation rate to print at 1.8 percent, the lowest in 29 months. While soft price growth gives the ECB room to introduce stimulus to offset the Eurozone recession, the central bank seems unlikely to act while political instability in Italy undermines policy transmission. With that in mind, the datas impact on the Euro is likely to be limited. The EU Leaders Summit enters its second day, but the sit down is unlikely to yield demonstrable progress on the most significant issue facing the region the political gridlock in Italy. Indeed, we discussed yesterday, there seems relatively little that can be done at the EU level (at least publically) until an increasingly likely repeat election is played out.

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 96.25 tgt 96.45/96.65 SL 96.00

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.5170 Tgt 1.5190/1.5210 SL 1.5140

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3012 HIGH: 1.3070 LOW: 1.3002 CLOSE: 1.3064

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND : BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD =>-.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 70(BULLISH SIGNAL)

 HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 95.94 HIGH: 96.27 LOW: 95.88 CLOSE: 96.14

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD => -0.05( BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>62(BULLISH SIGNAL50

HOURLYGBPUSD GBPUSD CHART HOURLY CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5090 HIGH: 1.5168 LOW: 1.5068 CLOSE: 1.5154

GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 73(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8623 HIGH: 0.8636 LOW: 0.8602 CLOSE: 0.8619

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>40(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 82.5370 HIGH: 83.6130 LOW: 82.2490 CLOSE: 82.2740

USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>0.79(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>30(BEARISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALENDER
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Mon Mar 11

JPY Japanese Parliament May Vote on BoJ Governor Nominations 00:01 GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (FEB) JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB P) EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JAN) EUR German Current Account (euros) (JAN) EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JAN) EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JAN) EUR German Labor Costs Workday Adj (YoY) (4Q) EUR German Labor Costs Seas. Adj. (QoQ) (4Q) CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (JAN) EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q F) EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q F) JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (FEB) JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (FEB) JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JAN)

High

Low

-44

-45

06:00

Medium

-21.5%

-26.4%

07:00

Medium

13.7B

13.9B

12.1B

07:00

Low

11.3B

10.5B

20.2B

07:00

Low

3.3%

0.7%

-1.5%

07:00

Low

1.4%

0.5%

0.2%

07:00

Low

2.9%

2.9%

07:00

Low

0.8%

0.2%

08:15

Medium

1.9%

4.7%

09:00

Medium

-0.9%

-0.9%

-0.9%

09:00

Medium

-2.8%

-2.7%

-2.7%

23:50

Low

0.3%

0.4%

23:50

Low

-0.1%

-0.2%

23:50

Medium

-0.2%

1.4%

23:50

JPY BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (1Q) JPY BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (1Q) EUR Germany Second Quarter Manpower Employment Outlook (Table) GBP RICS House Price Balance (FEB) AUD NAB Business Conditions (FEB) AUD NAB Business Confidence (FEB) AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (JAN) AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (JAN) JPY Consumer Confidence (FEB) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (FEB) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (FEB) EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB F) EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB F) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB F) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (FEB F) EUR Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) (FEB F) GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN) GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN) GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JAN) GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JAN) GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JAN)

Medium

-5.5

23:50

Medium

-10.3

Tue Mar 12

00:01

Low

00:01

Medium

-1%

-4%

00:30

Low

-2

00:30

Medium

00:30

Low

$A49.9B

00:30

Low

$A22.4B

05:00

Medium

43.3

07:00

Low

0.3%

07:00

Low

2.3%

07:00

Medium

0.6%

0.6%

07:00

High

1.5%

1.5%

07:00

Medium

0.8%

0.8%

07:00

High

1.8%

1.8%

09:00

Low

0.1%

09:30

Low

0.1%

1.1%

09:30

Medium

-1.1%

-1.7%

09:30

Low

0.0%

1.6%

09:30

Medium

-1.0%

-1.5%

09:30

Medium

-8950

-8897

09:30

GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (JAN) GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JAN) USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (FEB) USD JOLTs Job Openings (JAN) GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (FEB) USD Monthly Budget Statement (FEB) NZD Food Prices (MoM) (FEB) AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAR) AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAR) AUD Australia Manpower Survey (2Q) NZD New Zealand Manpower Survey (2Q)

Medium

-3200

-3201

09:30

Low

-4500

-4239

11:30

Low

90.0

88.9

14:00

Low

3617

15:00

Medium

0.0%

18:00

Medium

21:45

Low

1.9%

23:30

Medium

7.7%

23:30
Wed Mar 13

Low

108.3

Low

7%

Medium

15%

00:30

AUD Home Loans (JAN) AUD Investment Lending (JAN) AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (JAN) EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (4Q F) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 8) USD Import Price Index (MoM) (FEB) USD Import Price Index (YoY) (FEB) USD Advance Retail Sales (FEB) USD Retail Sales Less Autos (FEB)

Medium

0.5%

-1.5%

00:30

Low

-2.4%

00:30

Low

-2.7%

06:30

Low

-0.2%

-0.2%

10:00

Low

-0.1%

0.70%

10:00

Medium

-2.0%

-2.3%

11:00

Low

14.80%

12:30

Low

0.5%

0.6%

12:30

Low

-0.6%

-1.3%

12:30

High

0.5%

0.1%

12:30

Medium

0.5%

0.2%

12:30

USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (FEB) USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (FEB) USD Business Inventories (JAN) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 8) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 8) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 8) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 8) NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (MAR 14) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 8) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 8) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 8) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 8) AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAR) CNY China Manpower Survey (2Q) JPY Japan Manpower Survey (2Q) CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

0.2%

0.2%

12:30

Low

0.2%

0.1%

14:00

Medium

0.4%

0.1%

14:30

Low

3833K

14:30

Low

257K

14:30

Low

-616K

14:30

Low

-3830K

20:00

High

2.50%

2.50%

23:50

Low

23:50

Low

23:50

Low

657.8B

23:50

Low

269.6B

Thu Mar 14

00:00

Medium

2.2%

Low

14%

Low

11

Medium

-4.8%

-7.3%

00:30

AUD Employment Change (FEB) AUD Unemployment Rate (FEB) AUD Full Time Employment Change (FEB) AUD Part Time Employment Change (FEB) AUD Participation Rate (FEB) NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (FEB)

High

10.0K

10.4K

00:30

High

5.5%

5.4%

00:30

Medium

-9.8K

00:30

Medium

20.2K

00:30

Low

65.0%

65.0%

02:00

Low

66.7%

04:00

JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (FEB) JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN F) JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN F) JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JAN F) JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB F) CHF Swiss National Bank Rate Decision (MAR 14) EUR Euro-Zone Employment (QoQ) (4Q) EUR Euro-Zone Employment (YoY) (4Q) CAD Capacity Utilization Rate (4Q) USD Current Account Balance (4Q) CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (JAN) CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (JAN) USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (FEB) USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB) USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB) USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB) USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 10) USD Continuing Claims (MAR 3) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 8) USD Fed Releases Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (FEB)

Low

-5.4%

04:30

Low

1.0%

04:30

Medium

-5.1%

04:30

Low

2.9%

06:00

Medium

08:30

High

0.00%

0.00%

10:00

Low

-0.2%

10:00

Low

-0.7%

12:30

Low

12:30

Low

-$112.8B

-$107.5B

12:30

Low

0.2%

12:30

Low

2.3%

12:30

Medium

0.6%

0.2%

12:30

Medium

0.1%

0.2%

12:30

High

1.7%

1.4%

12:30

High

1.8%

12:30

Medium

340K

12:30

Low

3094K

14:30

Low

-146

20:30

Low

21:30

Medium

55.2

Fri Mar 15

EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (MAR) NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (MAR) CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (FEB) CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (FEB) EUR Itally General Government Debt (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Labor Costs (YoY) (4Q) USD Empire Manufacturing (MAR) USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB) USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB) USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB) USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB) USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (FEB) USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (FEB) USD Total Net TIC Flows (JAN) USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (JAN) CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (FEB) USD Industrial Production (FEB) USD Capacity Utilization (FEB)

Medium

00:00

Low

121

00:00

Low

2.3%

08:15

Low

-0.1%

08:15

Low

0.8%

09:30

Medium

1988.4B

10:00

Medium

0.4%

-1.0%

10:00

High

1.8%

1.8%

10:00

High

1.3%

1.3%

10:00

Low

2.0%

12:30

Low

10.04

12:30

Medium

0.4%

0.0%

12:30

Medium

0.2%

0.3%

12:30

High

1.8%

1.6%

12:30

High

2.0%

1.9%

12:30

Medium

232.138

232.108

12:30

Low

230.28

13:00

Low

$25.2B

13:00

Medium

$64.2B

13:00

Low

1.3%

13:15

Medium

0.3%

-0.1%

13:15

Low

79.3%

79.1%

13:15

USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (FEB)

Low

0.3%

-0.4%

13:55

USD U. of Michigan Confidence (MAR P)

Medium

78

77.6

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