Adelaide (1st) v Essendon (5th), Friday March 22nd @ AAMI Stadium, 8:10pm Opening Line: Adelaide -8.

5 (Marathon), Total 188.5 pts (Bet365)

Breaking Down The Lines

Using lines from Centrebet they have this one pegged at -13.5 with Adelaide listed as the home favorites. The Crows nished the regular season 17-5 before losing their home Qualifying Final to the Swans and then backing up a week later to beat the Dockers. They nally were stopped and only just by the Hawks in the Preliminary Final, losing 97-92 in a ripper. Essendon meanwhile dropped their last seven games and by an average of 51.7 points. The last time they met was in that run of seven straight losses where they lost 104-100, a week after being humiliated by the Hawks to the tune of 94 points, so revenge and pride from that game was on their minds. The closing line that game was 38.5 points, which to me is closer to the true line here for this matchup. I think we are getting tremendous value with the Crows here and if you can setup an account with Marathon, you can still get them as -10.5 point favs. If we take the -13.5 line and look up the Crows last season playing as -10.5 to -16.5 point favs they were very impressive in those circumstances. Going 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS, they won those ve games by an average of 24 points against the Power, Dockers, Saints, TIgers and Eagles. With the sole SU loss to the Pies by 26 points. Those ve game all went OVER the total and scores of 201, 193, 226, 193 and 199 averaged 202.4 points. I expect the line to keep moving in the Crows favor so if you agree with me then snap it up whilst it lasts. In regards to the total its listed as 188.5 at Bet365. In the last three contests dating back to 2010 the teams have averaged 175 pts @ AAMI Stadium with an average of 56.3 I50s for the Crows and 47.6 for the Dons. Games played at AAMI last year the Crows averaged 52.71 I50s and allowed 46.78 to the opposition. They were very efcient at home in scoring from their I50 entries and were even better at defending. Comparing that to the Dons efforts on average from the season the expected total is 184.42, so the opening total here is close. I think that the total is a little high here and I lean to the UNDER in this one but again with totals early in the season they tend to go OVER. Will see how the line moves in the lead-up and go from there but Ill more than likely pass at it.