-

, 2009

THE WORLD BANK

No55597BG

, 2009

Copyright 2010
The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank
1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.
All rights reserved
Manufactured in the Republic of Bulgaria
First printing: July 2010
Report No. 55597-BG
Mapping Bulgarias Future: Inclusive Growth and Protective
Jobs, dated December 2009,
.
, .
, ()
,
, , .
, . ,
, ,
,
.
.
.


. Copyright Clearance Center .
Copyright Clearance Center, Inc.
222 Rosewood Drive
Danvers, MA 01923, U.S.A.
Tel. 978-750-8400 Fax : 978-750-4470.


ii
1
5
10
...17
.23
...31
...33
...41
.47
..52
....58
....63
..69
..77
....81
...85


,
, ,
, .
, , :
(); , (
), , ( ), ,
( ), ,
( ),
, (), (),
(), (
), , ( ),
( ), (
), ( ), ,
, , (), ,
( ), (
).

I.
1.
.

, .
,
, 2007 .

.
2.
e ,

.
:
,

.

,
.
3. .


,
.
4. - .

. ,
.
,
. .
5.
,
.

,
. ,
;
,
- .


6. , ,
.

, ,
.

.
7. , , :
-
;

, ;
-
;
.
8.
,
. :
, ;
;
.
9.
, :

, ;

.
, ,

.

ii

II.

.
10. - , e
,
.
.

. , , ,
, .
11.
:

,
.
,
(39%
2008 .), .

2009 2010 .,
:
90-
2009 . 2010 .
3% .

.

, -
, , ,
4 2007 2060 .
,
,
:


.
,
,
- .

;
,
,
.
""
.

iii


, ,
-

.
, -
,
.

,
.
.
.
12. .
, ,
, ,
.
,
.
,
. ,
, , ,
. ,
-, .
13.
.
, ,
,
, ,
. 15 .
:
-
, - .

, . ,
-
, .
-
,
,
, .

, .
,
,
,
, ,

iv


, ,
.

,
,
.
, ,
.

.

,



,
.
.
14.
, .
,
.
, . 2010 .
2,9% (.. 182,000 ),
14% 400,000 .
, ,
. , ,
, .
,
- - .
, ,
,
.
15.
() -

.
()
, .
85.8 . 2006 . ,
97% 2006 . 45% 2008 . ,
,
.
,
.


.



- .
16. , ,
, :
.

,
, -
.

.
.
.
III.
17.
-
.

. ,
. , ,

. ,
, -
. ,
,
,
- .
.
18.
.
,

.

,
.
.

. , .
19.

. :

.

vi


,
.

.


.

,
.
20.
:

, , ,
.

,
.

- .
.
21.
, ,
: ; ;
(),
.
22.
- .
, ,

. ,

; ;
,
;
.
23. :
- .
,
, .
,
;

vii


; -
-.
,
().
.


.
24. , :
20% 2012 .
;
.
,
.

.
.

.
25. ,
;
; -
; .
, -,
.
:
,
.

, , , .

.
" "
.
26. -
.
- .
- ,
.
, -
: () 2006 .
0,48% 3% 2010 .,
0,16%
2%.
,
.

viii

27. :

,
.

.
,
.
28. , :
;
-.
.

.

.

, .
29.
. 28%
49% -27,
2006 . .

(),
97% , ,

.
30. :
,
() .
,

.
,
,
.
31. :

.
.
.
.
32.
.

ix


,
.
, 75,4% 6,6%
, 0,8% 78,5% ;

;
;
, ,
, ,
;
;
.
33. :
() 30% -15
;

;
,

;

, - ;
,
,
, .


, .
34. :

,
- ;


, ;
2014-20
,
;

;

( 2 )

.
35.
,


.
2003 2013 .
, (2007
2011 .), , .

; ,
,
.
,
.
36. :
.
,
,
.

,
.
37. :

.

-
.
,
, , .
,

.
.

38.
,

, .
,
, .
39. ,
,
. -, ,
,
. ,
().
( )
.
( - )
.

xi


.
.
,
.
40. :

.

.
.
.
.
41. :

().
-
.

,
, ,
.
42.
.
600-700 . 2009-2013 .
,
,
.
, -
( ).
()
, ,
.
43. :

.
-
, .

.
.
44. ,
, , .
45.
,

xii


-. ,
,

, -, ,
, -
-,
.
46.

. :
.

.
,
.
, .
47. ,
:

, ,
.
.
48.
, "
2000"; ,
, ,
, ,
, .
49.
:
2000.
-
, ;
.

(
).
50. :
.
,
(.
, ,
2000, ).

.

xiii

.
51. ,
, ,
, .
.
52. ,
;
;
;
;
,
;
;
, .
- ,
.
53. :
,

.
7- ,
.
, .
,
.

.
54. :

.
.
,

.
,
.

.
.
55. , ,
;
,
.
56. :
.

xiv

.
.

57. :
.
, .
.
.

.
- .
,
().
,
.
58.
,
- .
59. , :
.
.

.
60. :
.
.

.
61. , -
,
.
:
(
, , );
- , ,

- .
.
IV. ,
62.
, .
,
, .
,
xv



, .
,
, , , ,
, , , ,
.. , -

, - .
63.
.
, .
, ().

(,
, , -, ,
, , ..).
,
,
(, ).
64.
.
, ,
.

, ,
, .
- ,
, .

xvi



I.
1.
. ,
, -
,
.
-
, , .
, ,
.
2. ,
.
-
3% 2005 . 2008 . ( 10 2008 .). 13% 2008 .,
31% 2005 . 16%
2008 . ,
:
18% 2005 . 33%
2008 ., 6% 2003 . 25% 2008
.
71% 2005 . 108% 2008 .,
24% 12% . ,

.
44% 2005 . 74% 2008 .
2008 . 12%
22%.
3. 2008 . , ,
: ,
, ,
.

, .
4.
2011 .
2008 . ,
4,3% 2008 . 7%.
5. ,
. ,

. 2009 ., 19%
. ,
, ,


. 3.3 . 2008
. 1.3 . 2009 . ,
. 6% 2008 . 7,3%
2009 . - -

.
-15, ,
2008 . 6,4% .
6.

. 2009 . 31%
, 2009
. 5,8% .
14,4% 2008 . 2,6% 2009 .
II.
7. .
,
.
,
.
, , ,
- . ,
,
(CDS) - . ,
-,
.
8. . .
. 2009 ., 6%
,
25%. 0,8%
5% ,
3% 2009 . ,
, -,
,
,
. 0.8 .
2009 ., 1.5 . 2008 .
9.
.

-

,

.

III.
10.
.
:

.
-, ,
.

.

11.
.

. , ,
, .

.
,
. ,
,
,
.
12.
.
13. ,

.
,
, .
14. , :
90-
2009 . 3%
.
, 3% 2010 .

. -,
-
, .
,
- , ,
, 4 2007 2060 .


15. ,

:

(, )
,
,
, .
()
.
""
, -
"", .
,
,
- .

, .
16. ,
.
;
( )
, -
.
17. , , ,
, .
,
.

.

18.
, ,
.


.



I.
1. , .

, .
-
-15 (
2008 . 80% ),
,
.
2. ,
.
2009 . ( 16.49%,

). , .
2008 ., 2009 .,
, .
2009 .
2008 .
.
,
6% 2,6% .
2008 ., .
2008 . ,
, - 25% 2008 .
2009 .,
.
3. .
.
,
"", ,
, -
.
, -
.
4. .
,
50,000 . ,
,
.
,
Fitch
"BBB-, - BBB".

5. ,
.
.
2009 . 3,5%
, 3.3 .
2008 . 1.3 . 2009 .
. 2009 .
,
. 58%
2008 . 2009 ., , , 35%
.
6. .
2009 . ,
.
, ,
, 20%. , 13%
, 1% ,
(20% ) 2%,
(7% )
1.4%.
58% 2008 . 2009 ., , , 35%
.
7. .

,
. SOFIX 69% 2008 . 2009 ., .
30% 2008 .
- .
,
- 25%- .
29% 2008 .,
53%.
8% 2008 .,
-6,4% -9,3% -.
,
2020-2023 .
II.
8. : (i)
; (ii)
,
, - ; (iii)
; (iv)
; (v) .
9. ,
,
6


. ,
2008 . ,
30%
12 .
, 16
.
10. ,
, .
2002 . ,
50%. . 2009 . 107,9%
, -
. ( )
( 2008 .) 80% .

.
, -
. ,
2008 .,
, (, -)
.
11. .
.
70% ,
40% ( ).
12.
.
(- 2009 . , , 2005
2008 . - ,
. 2009 .,
35% , ,
40.5% 2007 . 42% 2005 ., 48.7%
, 50.1% , 52.2% . 14% ,
. ,
60% 2007 . ( ) 5% 5
( ).
,
. -
. 2009, (1-19
) - .
(20-99 )
.
13. ,
. ,
, ,
, .
7


,
, ,
.

. ,
,
.
III.
14.
.
,
, ,
, .
,
-15,
- .

- .
.
, .
, ,
. ,
-
, .

.
.
,
-. , -
- ,
, ,
.

. -
,
, .
,
,

-
.
.

,
, -
,


.
,

, ,
( ),
,
, .


.


.
,
, ,
,
. ,
250 .
,
.
,
- (
),
.
.
,
,
.
, , ,
, ,
.


.
()
, , , ,
.
,
,
.
(
), .



I.
1.
,
.

,
. ,
40% , .
, ,
-
.
.
,
.

, ,
,
.
2.
-
. 2003 . , 2008 .
()
.
, ,
.

.
,
, .
3.
, ,
, .

.
- .
, ,
- .
4.
.
,
,
. 2008 .
6,4% 7,1% 2009 .
.
- .
10


, ,
, .
,
.

-
, . ,
,
.
5.
" ,
, ,
.
II.
.
6. , ( )

.

.
,

. , .

,
. ,
,
.
7. ,
,
.

. , ,
, -
.
, ,
.


.
8.

. ,
,
. ,

11


, ,
. ,
, ,
.
,
27 .
,
,
.
9.
. ,

, .
.
,
, ,
. ,
, ,
/ .
10.
. ,
,

.

,
, .
.
, .

, ,
. , , 1.

12

1: ,

11. /
.
( )
( ,
)
,
. ,
.
,

-,
. , ,
,
, , ,
.

13


12. .

,
. -

.
,
,
.
,
,
.
13. -
, , ,
.
, .
(
) .

,
.
,
, .
,
, .

.
.
14. ,
,
,
.
,
.
,
, .

.
,
(
). ,
, -
.
15.
,
-.
, . ,
" ,
14


.
, ,
. ,
,
,
.
16.

. (),
.

, .
""
, .

. ,

,
-.
, - ,
, .
17. ,
,
. , ,

. ,

, .
,
.

- , -
, / - .
18.
- .
" ",
- .
,
.
.
- .
, -
, , , .
( ),
,
- .

15


III.

,
.
,
, .

.
2009 .
2010 .
,
2010 .

.
,
.



.
,
, .

,
-.
,
-
.
(
)
, .

;
,
.
,
,
.

-
. ,
.


.
.

16



I.
1.
.
- Doing Business 2008
, ,
.1

.
2. ,
-
.

, , .
,
-
- , -
, .
-27
,
.
2008-2009, 2008
2008.
3. - (2008-2010)
" - " - .
: -,
, 25 ;
-
; 181 ; 14
() ; 250
;
20% 2012 .
4.

- .
, , ,

, .
-
, .
5.
, .
,
- ,
1

(2007). 2008. .

17


- ,
. 2007 - :
,
2008 ., Doing Business 2009 2008 .
2008 . - :
.
II.
.
6.
. 70% ,

" " ,
2007 . ( 1). 17%
, ,
, , .., -,
. " " 2009 .
, 10,6% ,
-, - .
1: ,
.

: " "
:
BEEPS (2005).

7.
.
,
45% 2007 . .
- , .
- (
) 2007 .,
2009 .
, -
.
18

8. , , .

, 2003 .,
. ,
, ,
. 2
9.
.

9% -
2008 ., -
, .
3,3 , .., ,
- - (. 0,4 ).
, (.., ,
, ) 2008 . 32,1%,
-, - . 3
10. ,
. 60% 2005 .
2008 ., 4 850 . 2008 . 5
,
, .6

;
(
, );
, .
"" , . 7 ,
,
.
11.
- .

, 2005 2008 .
,
, . , ,
(2008). : , , .
(2008). 2009, , .
4
Analysis of State Fees, Administered at the Central Level and Proposals for Undertaking of Measures, Draft report of Working Group under the
Ministry of State Administration and Administrative Reform, 2009.
5
2008., .
6
(2009). : .
7
, , . ,
, a "" ,
. , ,
.
2
3

19


, 35% 2009 .
42% 2005 . 2007 ., -
.
.
12. .
2007 . -
, , ISO
- . -
,
-
. 12,5% , .
25% , 28-29% , 41% , 60%
. - ISO,
. -
. ,
,
.
13.
().
- 2010 .,
- 2% - .
-
,
. , ,
.
0,57% 1998 . 0,48% 2006 . -,
- . ,
0,16% ,
(
). ,
, -,
- .
III.
14.
,
.


.
.
, - 2008-2010
2013 .
,
.

20




,
,
.
,
.

.

.
- ,
-
-.

.


. .

, ,
.
,
,

.

.

,
,
20% 2012 .


.

-
.
.

,
,
.

, .
, ,
.
-.

21



- .
.
(
"")
- .


.

22



I.
1.
,
.
.
, 2008 . 64%, 70
2010 ., . ,
(25-64 .)
, ,
( 1).

.
,
.
,

.
1: -15
25-54 55-64 .,

, 2007

, 2007
100

100
80

80

60

60
40

40

20

20

0
0

15-64
15-64

15-24

25-54

15-24
27

27

15

25-54

55-64

55-64
15

:
2.
. -
18% 1.5 . 2000 . 2025 .8
. 2035 ,

,
.
3. ,

. , , , - .
2008 .,
8

: , , 2007

23


. ,
, .
, , ,
,
.
4. -
,

.
.

,
, ,
.
5. . 2008 . :
",
, ,
.
( ),
( ).
, ,
.
,
, - .
,
.
II.
.
6. .
, - ,
-. , , , ,
, . 25%
15 24 2005 . , ,
, , , 35%
, . -
, , ,
,
, ..
7. .

,
. ,

. ,
24



, ,
. 9 ,
.
8.
. - . 10
,
,
-. -
-
, - ,
- , . 50%
-,
,
9. - .
-
- ,
,
- . 2
2005 . ( ) 2035 . ( ),
. (
), 2035 .
2005 .
- .
, ,
-
. , ,
65 . ,
,
-
. ,
,
60 20.32 4 -
.

OECD (2008) Employment Outlook 2008, Chapter 1, Off to a Good Start? Youth Labor Market Transitions in OECD Countries, OECD:
Paris
10
World Bank (2008), Bulgaria: Raising employment and human capital for growth and convergence.

25

2:

2005 . ( ) 2035 . ( )
100

100

90

90

80

80

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0
-4

70

-3

-2

-1

)
.
(x 105)

0
-4

4
x 10

-3

-2

-1

)
.
(x 105)

4
x 10

.
10.
,
,
. 3,
,
.
, ,
- ,
. ,
-
,
.
11. , , ,
, ,
.
,
- - .

, - .
PISA 2006 ,
50% 15-
- - -
- , - . ,

.
12.
. 50%

26


(7- -). 11 ,

,
.

, .
, 4- .
, 6-
4- ,
.
- ,
, , .
13. - .

, , ,
.
, -
.
.
.
- , .
1,4% 25 64 .
10% 30%
.
III.
14. ,
.
.

,



.


-.

.

, .


, .


11

27


,
,
. ,
, ,
.
, ,
:

. ,

, . ,
,
.
-
. - -

(, "-" "-" ).
.

.

.

,
.

, .

, , ,
. ,
,
.12
, , , . 13
, "
".
,
, -
-.

, ,
.

. ,

12
Quintini and Martin (2006), Starting Well and losing Their Way? The Position of Youth in the Labor Market in OECD Countries, OECD
Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No. 39, OECD: Paris
13
Betcherman et al (2007), A Review of Interventions to Support Young Workers: Findings of the Youth Employment Inventory, World Bank
Social Protection Discussion Paper No. 715, World Bank: Washington, DC

28


.
.
" ",
,
.
.
, 4- .
- .

;
;
, - -
.
(),
.
,
- , -
. 14 ,
, ,
.
, , , . .
,
3 ,
3 6 .

.
,
(EMA) ,

18- , .

15
18 , 15. ,
,
. "Connexions",
13 19 , ,
.

, .

, , ,
. 16

14
Cunha, F., Heckman, J., Lochner, L. & Masterov, D. (2005), Interpreting the evidence on life cycle skill formation (North Holland,
Amsterdam).
15
, ( ),
PISA 2006,
, . ,
- .
16
.

29


.
(.
), ,
-
, -
.
.
,
()
".
, ,
,
, .

30



I.
1. -
(), ,
. - . 28%
2008 .,
-27 49%.
:
, 10%
1,3% .
,
,
, .
2. ()
(ITES) .
-, A.T. Kearney
40 . , ,
450 . , 80% .
- 2007 .
4% ,
, .
3. ,
1999 . 2006 ., .
.
-
( ),
(, , -,
.).
II.
4.
(). 97% .
() .

, .
, 99%
, .
- ,
, .
5. ,
,
.
,
()
.
6. .
- ,
31


.
.
.
7.
, ,
.

-
.
,
.
III.
8. -
.

,
.

,
.


(, ),
. ,
, ,
.
,
- - .
,
.

" "
.
20 - ,
(,
), .

.
.
, ,
( ),
.,
, .

32



I.
1.
.
, -
.
8% ,
(-8+2) 17. -27 () , -
,
- ..
2.
. ,
.
- ,
;
- ,
.
3. 1% ,
- - , -.
,
2003 2008
., . ,
1,1% 2003 . 1,2% 2008 .
( ). 18
,
,
() ,
( ,
),
2008 . 1,9% .
4.
.
,
, ,
() .
7,2 .
2007-2013 .

17

8+2 4.6% 29.5%

18

, ,
, .

33

II.
5.
: (i)
, - ; (ii)
; (iii)
(iv)
.

,
.
, 2009 .,

.
.
6.
.
,

.
() () ().

, .

.
, ,
,
, -
, .

.
7. .
()
-

. ,

, .
,
,

,
.
8. .
,
,
34


.

() , , 2009
., , ,
, .


,
.
.
9.
: (i)
() ;
(ii) (iii)
; (iv) ,
; (v) ,
.
10.

, .
.

, - , -,
- . ,

- ( ),

.
11. 10 . ,
().
-
,
, 15%

. 2008 ., 3.8 .
,
3,42 0.6
"". .
, . 2009 .,
3.492 .
12. 2010 .,
( )
. ,
2 (
) , 2010 .,
40-50 . , . ,
160 ,
35


30% 50%
-15.
2009 .
. ,
, .
13.
()
. 2007-2013 .,

() .
-
, 30 40- ,
. , 23,
30 ,
().
.

. -
, .
, ,
.
. -
( ), .
, , ,
/
.
14.
() 2009 .

,
(
). 9 , - 100
.
.
,
. 45
( ) 2008 105
. . ,

2009 .
.
,
, ,
,
, - .
15. ,
,
. 17
36


, 33% ,
. 2008 .
220 . . ,
, (,
, , ,
, , , ,
, ).


.
, :
() ,
,
,
( -);
() ,
,
( 8) (


, () i)
, , ii)
).
16.
. -
, -
- , .
- ,
2008 . , .

- 2008
.
.

17. .
,
. - ,
, , . ,
, ,
.
, , ,
.
, ( ,
)
.

37

18. - ,
. 500,000
9% , 61% .

, .
,
.

,
.
.
19. , -
,
, .

2 .
, , ,
.
.
20. .
-
( ).
,
.

. () ,
, ,
.
( )
,
.
- .
III.
21. - .



.

1 :

30% -15

38

,

2

/
/

, -

,

,
:

,
,
,
.

1

,
-

,
, -

-
( , ,
)
2

2010 .

2014-20
,

:

,
,

39

-
( 2 )

; 2
.

40



I.
1. . 4,1
, ,
, . 5 .
. ., .
14,1 . . . 73%
,
.
2.
(), .
2007 .,
.
, .., , 16
, 141 37 .

, ( )
.
.
3. , , :
, ;
,

.
4.
,
,
, ( )
- .
, .
5.
. 2009 . ,
, .

1990 . .
.
II.
.
6. .
2003-2013
(- 2006-2015 .),
. ,
41


, ,
.
(2007 . - 2011 .)
( 10% ).
2007 .
.
,
,

.
7.
.
, .
,
,
.
.
8. .
141 37

. e
:
,
, ,
.
"", .
, ,
, - ,
.
.
9.

- - . -
.
, ,

, .
. ,
. ,
, , ,
/ ,
,
.
10.
.
.

42


. - ()
() ,
2000. " 2000",
. ,

, " 2000".
11.
,
(
).
: ,
,
(
, , ..);
, ;
, ,
.
, - .
12.
.
, ,
. .
2006 . - 30% .
3% .
.
13. ,
. () ()
,
.
: , - ,
, ,
,
, - -
, ,
.
14. .
, ,
, ,

, , ,
, , -
, . ,
,
.
15. ,
.
43


, (. )
,
, .
()
.
16.
.
, ,
, , -
.
,
.

, .
, (
0,5 . ),
.
. ,
.
,
,
.
17. ,
.
, ,
.
-,
.
(
, ),
,
.
18. ,
.
, ,
.
, ,
.
,
, .
III.


, , .

44


,
, -, ,
.
141 37

.
,
.
,
( .. , ) (.
, , ,
..);


.
.

,
.
, ,
,
.

,
, .


.

,
.

,
.
,

, ,
,
.

.

- ,
(. , , ,
.), -
.
,
- .

45


- -
, -
. -
.
(.
, , ,
.., ).
-
, /

;
, ,
;
.
,
, , .
,
, - .

.
.

.

,
.
,

( 2).

.
- 2
- .
,

.

46

I.
1.
, ,
.

.
2. 2020 . 19 "
,
". -

,
,
. ,
, : (i) ;
(ii)
; (iii)
; (iv)
.
II.
3.
: (i)

; (ii)
; (iii)

.
.

4.
.
,
. .
()
.
1 2007 .
. ,
:
. ,
, ,
.
5.
. 2008 .,
" ( ) :
19

2020 ., -, 2008 .

47


"
, ".
: i) "-" ( ), ii), "- 2"
( ), iii) " ( ), iv)
, v) , vi) " , vii)
viii) . " "


. 20
6. .

.

. ,
21,
. ,
, .

,
.
: (i) ,
,
- - ; (ii)
; (iii)

(. ).
7.
.
, ,
, .

.
- . ,
,
, . ,
.
, ,
: (i) (ii) .
,

.

, , ,
,
.
21
2007 . 19% 39% .
- ( 38%) ( 40%),
.
20

48


.
8. ,
.

. ( ) ,

. , , (65%
30 ), ( 30-35%
), . .

, ,
- ,
.
9.
. 2020 .
, :
(i) "" (2000 MW); (ii) "; (iii)
. ,
7000 MW 2020 . ,
,
. ,
.
10. ,
. (
)
. 2005 . 9,4%, ..,
8,5%.
2005-2015 .,
6
.

,
, .
- :
: ,
2200 3400 MWe;
: - 300 MWe (60% ,

30% );
:
200 MWe;
:
.

11. ,
.
90% . ,

49


. ,
.
, . ,


. 2009 .
- .
2020 . -
( 1,5%
).
,

.
.
12. ,
. 2007 . 5 ,

. : (i)

; (ii)
(
,
(iii)
, .
,
50% 2020 .,
20%.

,
.


.
13.
. ,
(
),
.
(ETS)

.

.
III.

,
50


. -
,
, ,
.

,
, ,
,
.
: (i)
, ; (ii)

,

( ).

.
,
, , . : (i)

, (ii)
, .
,
, -
,
.

.

,
.
-
.

.
-: (i) /
; (ii) ; (iii)
, , .

.
- ,
- -

.
,

, , .

51



I.
1.
-
;
;
()
; ;
();
;
,
- , .
2. ,
, .
1000 10,000 ,
.
3 30 .
( ) 6
4-5%, -
20% . ,
500 .
3.

. 30-40%

. 25-30% ,
150-200 ,
10 .
, .
-
2008 , .
4.

. -
-
.
-
.
5. ,

. -
,
.

52


II.
.
6.
.
, ,
,
. ()
,
.

. ,
, .
.
7.
,
. ,
, 240 . 2008 ., 90 . .
-
( ) -
.
,
. , 25-30%
150200 10 .
- ,
.
1: (. )

2005
2006 *
2007 *
2008 *

20.0
21.3
22.2
19.1
,
119.4
107.8
215.3
203.1

47.1
76.6
43.9
66.2

73.1
88.7
89.7
102.8
()
8.4
9.0
9.2
10.0
()
14.8
16.8
18.2
19.2

282.7
320.1
398.5
420.3


68.6
76.3
94.3
95.7

9.0
14.2
18.0
35.0

67.8
85.8
182.6
191.8

26.4
38.7
37.7
36.9
. (, ..)
21.2
17.2
6.4
6.0
(
0
0
, )
( )
55.4
66.5
57.3
53.0
- " " -
6.9
5.7
2.0
2.0

282.7
320.1
398.4
420.3
: .
(*)

53


8. ,
600-700 . 2009-2013 .

. -
, ,
2008, .
,
(). ,

. -
.
9. ,
.


. " ",
,
.

,
. ,
,
.
,
.
.
10. , ,
,
.
,
,
.
,
, 3 5 .
- -
.
, 25%
,
,
.
; .
.
11. .
,
.
2006 . 2008 .,
, ,
,
54


. , ,
. ,
-
,
.
,

: , ,
( IV ).

. ,
, .
12.
. , ,
, . ,

. :
(i) ( ); (ii)

; (iii)
; (iv)
; (v) .
13. ,
- .
: (i) ; (ii)

, ; (iii)
; (iv)
, .
. ,
,
. -
. ,
,
.
14. ,
.
// ,
.
. .
, - ,

, , .
,
.

55


15. ,
,
.
, ,
,
. -
,
. ,
, ,
.
16.
.
. ,
,
.
.
, ,
,
.

.
,
,
.
.
17.
.
, , ,
, ,
, , ,
- . ,
. ,
,
.
III.
18. ,
, ,
, , , .
,
.

( )
, . ,

.

56


- ,
. ,
, ,
( )
(10 .) .
,
, ,
.
.
.

.
: (i)
,
, , (5-) ; (ii)
,
; (iii)
.
,
, . ,
,
,
, ,
.

.

.
.

,
. 27- 6
.

57



I.
1.
-
, .
2007 . ..

120 . .
:
;

; ,
.
:
40%;
- ,
,
,
,
, ,
.
2.
.. ,
-
.
. ,
,

, -, ,
, -
-,
.
3. ,

.
,
,
.
,

.
4.
. 2009 .

58


II.
.
5. ( 1) ,
"
, .

.
, .
-
. ,

, ,

, . ,

, .
40% -27;
50% ,
.

.
,
.
1. , % -27
(EC-27=100)
(/. )
. .


( )

-
0

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

6. .
. ,
, ,
.

.
.
7.
.
,
- .
75% . 15
59


25-30 , 30-40
, - 1% .


- .
, ,
, .

,
.
. -
8.
. , ,
, ,
. ,
,
,

. ,
-
,
. ,
, .
,

, .
,
, .
9.
; ,
, .
,
.

.
, ,
, .
,
,
.
.
10. ,
- .
: (i)
; (ii)
, ; (iii)

60


(iv) ,
.
11.
, .
, ,
, ,

.
12.
. ,
,
. ;

,
.

, ,
. -,
.
,

.
13.
.
-
,
. 2006 . , 86%
. ,
,
, -
- .
.
, (
, ),
.
III.
14. ,
, . 2009 .
- .

-
.

,

61


.
.
.

.

, .
,
.

, ,
.
.

, .
2013
2015 .
.

()
, ,
, .

, .

.

62



I.
1.
. ,

.
2.
.
, ,

.
.

,
-
.

, ,
,
.
3. ,
,
,
.
II.
4. : (i)
, " 2000"; (ii) ,
; (iii)
; (iv) ; (v)
.
.
5. -
, .
.
, , 5%
. (
, " 2000"),
, .
,
.

,
.

63

. ,

6. ,
,
.
,
,
. ,
10%
.
7. (
7,5 . . .)
4035 ( 2340 )
- 27700
"" ",
.
.
8. .


. , " "

,
.
-
. , ,
33%
.
9.
. ()

.
22,
.
.
( )
,
" "
" " 2015 .

.
(, ), ,
. ,
, -
. .

22

64


10. ,
,
, .

. ,
- ,
- ,
.
. ,
,
.

, ,
.
.
11.
. ,
,
,
.
( . 2004 .)
. , . 2005
. , 2004-2014 ,
.

6,9 . , .. 2,8 . . " "
, 2007 .,
,
,
() .
12.
,
.
,
,
.
.
(101 . ) .
-: ()

, ()
.
.
13. , ,
.
2009 . , ,
,
.
65


.
,
,

(.., ).
,
.
14. .

, ,
. ,
. ,

. ,
,
.
15. .
,
. .
,
. ,
- ,
- - .
, ,
. ,
.
16. ,
.
,
. ,

. ,
, - ,
,

. ,
.
.
17. -
,
.
()
.
, -
, ,
,
.
66




.
18. - ,

362 . . ,
, .
,

,
(
).
, -
, - ,
.
,
543 752 . 95
132 . .
III.

,
,
2000 .

.
-
, ;

,
.

.
, ,
.
- .
,
, ,
.
,
.
,
.

( ),
. ,

.

67



.

.

, , (.
, ,
2000, ).


.

.

.
- , - ,

.

68

I.
1.
- .

, .
-
(, -
), - , -
- . ,

- .
,
, .
,
.
,
.
2.
,
.

. ,
PISA , 50% 15
,
, , .

.
- .
-
, .
,
.
3. ,
- . ,
,
-
, .

.
II.
.
4.
.
69


, - , , ,
,

- ( ) ,
. ,
, - ,
. 50%
15- PISA 2006 - - (
, ) .
TIMSS .
5.
. 20-
- , , - 20 %
. ,
. ,
, .
, ,
, .
, 2008 ., ,
,
, -
.
6. ()
.

. -
, - , ,
.
( 7- )
. ,
- ,
, -
, .
-
- - ,

16 . -
,
,
,
.
7. ,
, ,
.
, .

,
70


, .
, ,
, ,
, .
-
, ,
.
8. ,

.
, ,
- . ,
.
,
, , ,
,
.
2009 .
,
.
9.
.

, ,
.
, , "" -
"" .
,
. -, 8-
,

.
.
10.
. 25%
15 24 2005 . ,
, ( 1).

, ,
. 23

- , ,
, , : 35%
, .

. ,
7- 70% , ,
23

: , 2008 .

71


, - .
,
- , : (i)
, ,
Education Maintenance Allowance (EMA) , (ii)
18 , .
1:
15-24 , 2005
40

DK NL

30
20
SL AT

DE

SE U K

FI

IE

10
LU BG

R CY

HU IT

SK CZ LT PT GR MT

EE FR

0
ES

LV BE

PL EU 27 av

-10
-20
-30

11.
.
,
, ,
,
- - . 24
,
.
66 %
74 % 2000 2008 . ,
, - , . ,
- - 90 %. -

, 0 3
,
3 6 .
.
12.
.
, ()
24
Cunha, F., Heckman, J., Lochner, L. & Masterov, D. (2005), Interpreting the evidence on life cycle skill formation (North Holland,
Amsterdam).

72


,
, .


.
.
1: (ISCED 5 6)
2000
44.4
28.7
29.4
24.0
55.6
43.0
49.7
36.7
56.3
50.3
55.7

2007
49.5
50.8
54.8
58.3
65.0
66.4
66.9
69.1
71.3
75.6
85.5

: UNESCO
13. . 2000 .

-, 2007 .
- . : (i)
, ,
, (ii) ( ..)
. 3,1%
.
, 40 %. (. 1).
14.
(53), .
, ,
,
. ,

- ,
, ,
, , - .
ca 0,9%
-25, 1,1% ,
-. . ,
.

73


III.
15.
,

. -e .

-
,
.
,
.

, . ,

.
,
, .
,
.
7-
.
.

(
, )
.
() 25
, ,
.
( 7- )

.
, ( , )
.

,
.
;

; //,
, ,
,
.


- ,
(2007 .). " :
".

25

74


. ,
,
.
, ,

.

.
18-
- .
. 26
,
,

() 15 18
..
, .
.

,

.
, : (i)

; (ii) ,
( , , );
(iii) ,
.
.
,
, ; ,
, .
-
. ,
/ .
().27

3 ,
,
3 6 .

( " ")
(, ).
-
.

.
26

OECD (2008) Jobs for Youth: United Kingdom, OECD: Paris

Cunha, F., Heckman, J., Lochner, L. & Masterov, D. (2005), Interpreting the evidence on life cycle skill formation (North Holland,
Amsterdam).
27

75

I.
1. ,
,

. -
- . ( ) 6.5
, 10 28
- , .
,
- (
)
49% 10. ( 1).
2. 2008 . 4.2% ,
- 10,
. , 38%
, 50% -
10.
,
. -
- (), 60%
2008 . ( 1,700 ) - 4% 2001 .

.

.
3.
. -
,
- 2009 . .
1: : ( )

-10
-27

4.2
4.6
6.7
%
%
38
25
17

%
33
51
67


72.6
74.5
79.1

: , , , .
2008 .

28

EU10 10 2004 . .

76


I I .
A.
4. ,
,
.
300 400, ,
.
,
. 2002 2007 .
33%, 44%.
.
2007 . ,

. ,
- .
, .
,
, , 29
( 858 1,644 10-15 ).
.
5.
. .
8% ,
.

,
.
,
( 2015 .).
,

- . :
, - (77 100 000
97 ), 17.8%
; 100 000
2.26 16.40.
.
6. .
, , 1
2009 . .
, .
(
),
, .
,
, Credes Groupe Burgeap

29

77



2009 .
,
.
.
7. .


. , ,
(
) ().

.
.

,
. (
) , -
.
, .
(
- ), ,
.
III.
8. ,
,
-,
.
.

.
, .. , ,
,

.
- () .
,
.
.
2009 .

, -
.
2010 . ,

78


.
.

.

.
,
.

, ,
.
,

280 .

. , ,
, .
,
,
.


.

- - , .
-
,
.
, . -
- ,
,
.

79



I.
1. 2000 . .
,
, ,
. ,
,
.
2. ,
, .
,
.

2000 2004-2005 .,
. ,
.

( ,
, ). -,
,
40% .
,
,
.
1. 60 %
;

10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2000

2001
2002
2003
2004
Pension insurance exp.

80

2005
2006
2007
Pension insurance revenue

2008


3. -
.
- .

.
II.
. -
4. 2006 . ,
, -
, . ,
,
,
4 4.5% 50 , 10-
2% .
5. 1 , . 2006 .
,
- . ,
,
- .
- 4
. - ,
,
,
,
.
6.
. 1 2009 .
12% ,
, , 4
2008 . 18% 2009 .
. ,
,
- ,
,
. ,

, , ,
, .
, ,
, -
.
, .

81


.
7.
, ,
- .
2009 ., 60 63
, 65
, , ,
67 . ,
60 20.32 , 4
.
8. ,
.
57 % 36%
. - ,
, 40% 18%
. ,
25% 2000 . ,
2000 .
. ,
. ,
3 - 0.2%
, ,
.
.
9. - 2000-2009 .
.
,
,
,
.
10.
,
.
- . , 2007 .
177.23 , 140.69 .
, , 30 ,

, .

82


.
11.
. ,
, .
.
,
- ,
.
, - .
, 1-6%
, 2005-2008 . .
,
.
III.
12.
, , -
. -
2009 .
.

.
,
.

.

.


.
(,
) -
.
,
- .

.

,
.

83



I.
1. : (a)

, ()
; () , ,

; ( )
, ; ( )
.
,
- .
(), -
-.
.
2.
(,
, ). 2008 . 1.3%
( -
),
- . 2007 .
7%
( 1).
35% ,
2.5% .
1: 2007 .



,

4,691
22.9
64.8
8.3

504.6
2.5
7.0
0.9

,

2,039
10.0
28.2
3.6
,

()
7,235
35.3
100.0
12.8
:
,
().

84


3. . , 2009 .
,
,
.
, 7% .
2010 ., .
25% 2010 . (.. 182 000
), 14%
400 000. ,
30% 35% .30
4.
,
- ,
. 2007 .
.
II.
A.
5.

; . 84%
() 67%
- 20% .
. ,
70% .
- -
( , ,
, , -),
.
6. ;
, ,
. -, - 16% -
. -
, 33-36% .
, - ,
.
140 000 2005 . - 40 000 2009 .
,
,
2003 . 2007 ., . 31
-
. 1 2006 .
18
30
31

(2009), : ( No. 47792

(2008), : .

85


.
,
12 . , ,
- .
2008 .
60 000 - 50 000, 2008 .
12 .
,
, .
7. - ,
- ,
45% . 45% (.. ,
185 . 2007 .) 18 .
,
2008 . 300 . .
(.
),
, ,
.
.
8.

2:
.
2006
2007
2008
2009
,
,

85,850
85,850
85,850
85,850

83,480
65,759
38,217

:
.
,
, a 12 , ,
,
- . 2 ,
2006 2009 . ,

.
.
9.
. , ,
.
,
. ,
, ,
. ,
,
, - ,
.
, ,

86


, ,
. , -
,
.

,
.
10. ,
- . ,
2008 . , 15%
, 70% ,
3 ,
, 15%
. 27% ,
, (
60% ),
, ( ),
.
: ,

,
.
11.
,
.
,
.
, 3 ,
.
, ,
.

III.


,
9
.
(- 12- )
- ,
, ,

.
,

.

87


, ,
.

.
.


, ,
,
- ,
.

.
,
, ,
.
, -
( )
.

88


Betcherman et al (2007). A Review of Interventions to Support Young Workers: Findings of the Youth
Employment Inventory. World Bank Social Protection Discussion Paper No. 715, World Bank, Washington,
D.C.
Draft report of Working Group under the Ministry of State Administration and Administrative Reform, 2009.
Analysis of State Fees, Administered at the Central Level and Proposals for Undertaking of Measures.
Government of Bulgaria. November 2008. Draft Bulgarian Energy Strategy by 2020.
Ministry of Finance. Report of the consolidated state budget as of 31 December 2008.
OECD (2008): Employment Outlook 2008, Chapter 1. Off to a Good Start? Youth Labor Market Transitions
in OECD Countries. OECD, Paris.
OECD (2008). Jobs for Youth: United Kingdom. OECD, Paris.
Quintini and Martin (2006). Starting Well and Losing Their Way? The Position of Youth in the Labor Market
in OECD Countries. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No. 39, OECD: Paris.
The Lisbon Review 2008: Measuring Europes Progress in Reform.
Red to Gray: The Third Transition of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union,
World Bank: Washington, D.C., 2007. World Bank & IFC (2007). Doing Business 2008. Washington, D.C.
World Bank (2008). Bulgaria: Investment Climate Assessment. Washington, D.C.
World Bank & IFC (2008). Doing Business 2009. Washington, D.C.
World Bank (2009). Bulgaria: Reforming the Regime of State Fees. Document of the World Bank. July
2009.
World Bank, 2008. Bulgaria: Investment Climate Assessment Enterprise Survey.
World Economic Forum. Executive Opinion Survey 2007, 2008.
World Bank (2008). Bulgaria: Raising employment and human capital for growth and convergence.
World Bank (2007). Accelerating Bulgaria's Convergence: The Challenge of Raising Productivity", World
Bank, Washington D.C.
World Bank (2009). Bulgaria: Poverty Implications of the Global Financial Crisis. (Report No. 47792-BG).
World Bank (2008). Bulgaria: Living Conditions before and after EU Accession.

89


http://www.worldbank.bg/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/BULGARIAEXTN/0,,contentMDK:22011258~pagePK:1497618~piPK:2
17854~theSitePK:305439,00.html

BULGARIA: Forest Policy Note (May 2009)

http://www.worldbank.bg/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/BULGARIAEXTN/0,,contentMDK:22236125~pagePK:1497618~piPK:2
17854~theSitePK:305439,00.html

BULGARIA: Diagnostic Review of Consumer Protection and Financial Capability (May 2009)
http://www.worldbank.bg/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/BULGARIAEXTN/0,,contentMDK:22236041~pagePK:1497618~piPK:2
17854~theSitePK:305439,00.html

Bulgaria: Investment Climate Assessment (Dec. 2008)

http://www.worldbank.bg/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/BULGARIAEXTN/0,,contentMDK:22011258~pagePK:1497618~piPK:2
17854~theSitePK:305439,00.html

Bulgaria: Corporate Governance Assessment (Dec. 2008)

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/BULGARIAEXTN/Resources/305438-1224088560466/Bulgaria2ROSCfinalreport.pdf

Bulgaria: Accounting and Auditing ROSC (Dec. 2008)

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/BULGARIAEXTN/Resources/305438-1224088560466/33061PReportAAengl.pdf

Bulgaria: Resourcing the Judiciary for Performance & Accountability - Judicial Public Expenditure
and Institutional Review (Oct. 2008)
http://www.worldbank.bg/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/BULGARIAEXTN/0,,contentMDK:21961468~pagePK:141137~piPK:14
1127~theSitePK:305439,00.html

Catastrophe Risk Insurance Feasibility Study (June 2008)

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTBULGARIA/Resources/RiskinsuranceBG.pdf

Accelerating Bulgarias Convergence: the Challenge of Raising Productivity (Sept. 2007)

http://www.worldbank.bg/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/BULGARIAEXTN/0,,contentMDK:21494784~pagePK:1497618~piPK:2
17854~theSitePK:305439,00.html

Bulgaria: Raising employment and human capital for growth and convergence - Policy Note (Nov.
2008)
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/BULGARIAEXTN/Resources/PolicyNoteEmploymentandHumanCapitalFINALcleannov17.pdf

Bulgarias Policy for Regulatory Reform in the European Union: Converging with Europes Best
Regulatory Environments (Oct. 2007)
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/BULGARIAEXTN/Resources/305438-1224088560466/RIA_ENG.pdf

Reforming administrative procedures in the tourism, food and road transportation sectors in Bulgaria
(Oct. 2007)
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/BULGARIAEXTN/Resources/305438-1224088560466/SPR_ENG.pdf

Doing Business 2009 (Sept. 2008)
http://www.worldbank.bg/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/BULGARIAEXTN/0,,contentMDK:21940453~pagePK:141137~piPK:14
1127~theSitePK:305439,00.html

From Red to Gray - The Third Transition of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the former
Soviet Union (2007)
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/0,,contentMDK:21378474~pagePK:146736~piPK:146830~theSitePK:258
599,00.html

EU10 Regular Economic Report (Oct. 2008)

http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/0,,contentMDK:20268176~pagePK:146736~piPK:146830~theSitePK:258
599,00.html

World Development Report 2009

http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/EXTWDRS/EXTWDR2009/0,,menuPK:4231145~pagePK:64167702
~piPK:64167676~theSitePK:4231059,00.html

***

90