BI TP XC SUT THNG K

BI 1
C hai hp I v II mi hp cha 10bi,trong hp I gm 9 bi ,1 bi trng.
Hp II gm 6 bi 4 bi trng.Ly ngu nhin t mi hp 2 bi:
a, Tnh xc sut c 4 bi
b, Tnh xc sut c 2 bi v 2 bi trng
c,Tnh xc sut c 3 bi v 1 bi trng
BI 2
Mt my sn xut sn phm vi t l sn phm t tiu chun l 80% v mt my khc cng sn xut loi sn
phm ny vi t l sn phm t tiu chun l 60%. Chn ngu nhin mt my v cho sn xut 100 sn
phm.Tnh xc sut :
a , C 70 sn phm t tiu chun
b, C t 70 n 90 sn phm t tiu chun
c, C khng t hn 70 sn phm t tiu chun.
BI 3
nghin cu nhu cu ca 1 loi hng 1 khu vc,ngi ta kho st 400 h gia nh.Kt qu nh sau :
Nhucu(kg/thg/h)
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8
S h 10 35 86 132 78 31 18 10
Cho bit trong khu vc c 4000 h
a, c lng nhu cu trung bnh v mt hng ny ca ton khu vc trong 1 nm vi tin cy 95%.
b, Khi c lng trung bnh v nhu cu mt hng ny ca ton khu vc trong 1 nm,nu ta mun t c
tin cy 99% v chnh xc l 4,8 tn th cn kho st t nht bao nhiu h gia nh.
BI 4
kho st ch tiu X ca mt loi sn phm x nghip I,ngi taa quan st 1 mu trong kho v c k.qu sau :
X(cm) 11-15 15-19 19-23 23-27 27-31 31-35 35-39
S s.phm
8 9 20 16 16 13 18
a, Nhng sn phm c ch tiu X t 19cm tr xung c gi l nhng sn phm loi B.Hy c lng t l sn
phm loi B vi tin cy 92%.
b, Ga s trong kho c 1000 sn phm loi B.hy c lng s sn phm trong kho vi tin cy 92%.
c, Ga s trong kho c 10.000 sn phm loi B. hy c lng s sn phm trong kho vi tin cy 92%.
Bi Gii
BI 1
C hai hp I v II mi hp cha 10bi,trong hp I gm 9 bi ,1 bi trng.
Hp II gm 6 bi 4 bi trng.Ly ngu nhin t mi hp 2 bi:
a, Tnh xc sut c 4 bi
b, Tnh xc sut c 2 bi v 2 bi trng
c,Tnh xc sut c 3 bi v 1 bi trng
Bi Gii
Gi A
i
, B
i
(i=0, 1, 2) ln lt l cc bin c c i bi v (2-i) bi trng c trong 2 bi c chn ra
t hp I v hp II.
Khi :
A
0
, A
1
, A
2
xung khc tng i v ta c: P(A
0
) = 0 C
1
9
C
1
1
P(A
1
) = = 9 45
C
2
10
C
2
9
C
0
1
P(A
1
) = = 36/45
C
2
10
C
0
6
C
2
4
B
0
, B
1
, B
2
xung khc tng i v ta c: P(B
0
)= = 6/45
C
2
10

C
1
6
C
1
4
P(B
1
)= = 24/45
C
2
10
C
2
6
C
0
4
P(B
2
)= = 15/45
C
2
10
A
i
v B
j
c lp
Tng s bi c trong 4 bi chn ra ph thuc vo cc bin c A
i
v B
j
theo bng sau :
B
0
B
1
B
2
A
0
0 1 2
A
1
1 2 3
A
2
2 3 4
a) Gi A l bin c c chn 4 bi . Ta c: A = A
2
B
2
T y, do tnh c lp, cng thc nhn xc sut th nht cho ta:
P(A) = P(A
2
)P(B
2
) =
36 15
45 45
= 0.2667
b) Gi B l bin c chn c 2 bi v 2 bi trng, ta c:
B = A
0
B
2
+ A
1
B
1
+ A
2
B
0
Do tnh xung khc tng i ca cc bin c A
0
B
2
, A
1
B
1
, A
2
B
0
, cng thc cng xc sut cho ta:
P(B) = P(A
0
B
2
+ A
1
B
1
+ A
2
B
0
) = P(A
0
B
2
)+ P(A
1
B
1
)+ P(A
2
B
0
)
Do tnh c lp, cng thc nhn xc sut th nht cho ta:
P(B) = P(A
0
)P(B
2
) + P(A
1
)P(B
1
) + P(A
2
)P(B
0
) = 0.2133
c) Gi C l bin c chn c 3 bi v 1 bi trng, ta c:
C = A
1
B
2
+ A
2
B
1

L lun tng t nh trn ta c : P(C) = P(A
1
)P(B
2
) + P(A
2
)P(B
1
) = 0.4933
BI 2
Mt my sn xut sn phm vi t l sn phm t tiu chun l 80% v mt my khc cng sn xut
loi sn phm ny vi t l sn phm t tiu chun l 60%. Chn ngu nhin mt my v cho sn xut
100 sn phm.Tnh xc sut :
a , C 70 sn phm t tiu chun
b, C t 70 n 90 sn phm t tiu chun
c, C khng t hn 70 sn phm t tiu chun.
Bi Gii
Gi X l LNN ch s sn phm t tiu chun 100 sn phm A
1
, A
2
ln lt l cc bin c chn
c my1, my 2.
Khi A
1
, A
2
l mt h thng y , xung khc tng i, ta c :
P(A
1
) = P(A
2
) = 0.5
Theo cng thc xc sut y , vi mi 0 k 100 , ta c :
P(X = k) = P(A
1
)P(X = k /A
1
) + P(A
2
)P(X = k /A
2
) =
1
2
P(X = k /A
1
) +
1
2
P(X = k /A
2
) (1)
Nh vy gi X
1
, X
2
ln lt l cc LNN ch s sn phm t tiu chun trong trng hp chn
c my 1, my 2. khi :
T (1) cho ta: P(X = k) =
1
2
P(X
1
= k) +
1
2
P(X
2
= k)
X
1
c phn phi nh thc X
1

:
B(n
1
p
1
) vi n
1
= 100 , p
1
= 80% = 0.8
V n
1
= 100 kh ln v p
1
= 0.8 khng qua gn 0 cng khng qu gn 1 nn ta c th
xem X
1
c phn phi chun nh sau : X
1
:
N(
2
1 1
, )

vi
1

= n
1
p
1
= 100 x 0.8 = 80

1

=
1 1 1
n p q = . . 100 08 02 x x = 4
X
2
c phn phi nh thc X
2

:
B(n
2
p
2
) vi n
2
= 100 , p
2
= 60% = 0.60
V n
2
= 100 kh ln v p
2
= 0.60 khng qu gn 0 cng khng qu gn 1 nn ta c th xem X
2
c
phn phi chun nh sau : X
2
:
N(
2
2 2
, )

vi
2

= n
2
p
2
= 100 x 0.60 = 60

2

=
2 2 2
n p q = . 100 060 40 x x = 4.8990
a) Xc sut c 70 sn phm t tiu chun l :
P(X = 80) =
1
2
P(X
1
= 70) +
1
2
P(X
2
= 70) =
1
2
.
1
1 1
70 1
f


_

,
+
1
2
.
2
2 2
70 1
f


_

,
=
1
2
.
1 70 80 1 1 70 60
.
. . 4 4 2 4 8990 4 8990
f f

_ _
+

, ,
= ( ) ( )
1 1 1 1
. . . . 2 5 2 04
2 4 2 4
f f +
=
1 1 1 1
. . . . . 00175 004980 000727
. 2 4 2 4 8990
+
b) Xc sut c 70 n 90 sn phm t tiu chun l :
P(70 X 90) =
1
2
P(70 X
1
90) +
1
2
P(70 X
2
90)
=
1 1 2 2
1 1 2 2
90 70 90 70 1 1
2 2



1 1
_ _ _ _
+
1 1
, , , , ] ]
=
1 90 80 70 80 1 90 60 70 60
. . 2 4 4 2 4 8990 4 8990

1 1
_ _ _ _
+
1 1
, , , , ] ]
= ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1
. . . . 2 5 2 5 6 12 2 04
2
+ 1
]
= ( )
1
. . . . 049379 049379 05 047932
2
+ + = 0.50413
c) Xc sut c t hn 70 sn phm t tiu chun l :
P(70 X 100) = 0.5072
(tng t cu b)

BI 4
kho st ch tiu X ca mt loi sn phm x nghip I, ngi ta quan st 1 mu trong kho v c k.qu
sau :
X(cm) 11-15 15-19 19-23 23-27 27-31 31-35 35-39
S s.phm
8 9 20 16 16 13 18
a, Nhng sn phm c ch tiu X t 19cm tr xung c gi l nhng sn phm loi B.Hy c lng t
l sn phm loi B vi tin cy 92%.
b, Ga s trong kho c 1000 sn phm loi B.hy c lng s sn phm trong kho vi tin cy 92%.
c, Ga s trong kho c 10.000 sn phm loi B. hy c lng s sn phm trong kho vi tin cy 92%.
Bi Gii
Lp bng :
X
i
13 17 21 25 29 33 37
n
i
8 9 20 16 16 13 18
Ta c:
n = 100 ;
2636
i i
X n
;
2
75028
i i
X n
K vng mu ca X l:

X

=
1
. 26 36
i i
X n
n
(cm)
X

(gi tr trung bnh ca X)

Phng sai mu ca X l :
2
^
S
=
2
2 2
1
( . ) 1 9965
i i
X n X
n

(cm)
2

(
2
^
S
: S m bnh phng,
2
X

: gi tr bnh phng trung bnh ca X)

Phng sai mu hiu chnh ca X l :
2
^
2 2
( . ) 7 4827
1
n
S
n
S

(cm)
2
a) Nhng sn phm c ch tiu X t 19cm tr xung c gi l nhng sn phm loi B.Hy c
lng t l sn phm loi B vi tin cy 92%.
y l bi ton c lng khong cho k vng
B

= M (X
B
) ca ch tiu X = X
B
ca nhng sn phm loi
Bvowis tin cy = 1

= 92% = 0.92 ( = 1

: gama bng 1
tr anpha)
Ta c bng s liu ca X
B

X
Bi
13 17
n
Bi
8 9
T bng trn ta tnh c :
n
B
= 17 ; 257
Bi Bi
X n ;
2
. 3 953
Bi Bi
X n
K vng mu ca X
B
l :
1
. 15 1176 B
Bi Bi
X X n
n

(cm)
Phng sai mu ca X
B
l:
2
^
S
=
2
2 2
1
( . ) 1 9965
i i
X n X
n


(cm)
2

Phng sai mu hiu chnh ca X
B
l :
2
^
2 2
( . ) 2 0580
1
B
B
B
n
S
B
n
S

(cm)
2

V n
B
< 30 , X
B
c phn phi chun ,
2
( )
B B
D X cha bit . Nn ta c cng thc c
lng khong cho k vng : ;
k k
B B
B
B B
S S
X t X t
n n

_
+


,
(trung bnh X tr t anpha
bnh k )
Trong
k
t

c xc nh t bng phn phi Student vi

k = n
B
1 = 16 v 1 = 1 - 0.92 = 0.08
tra bng phn phi Student ta c :
k
t

= 2.153
vy c lng khong l:
. . 2 0580 2 0580
. . ; . . ; 15 1176 2 153 15 1176 2 153
17 17
_
_
+

,
,
= 14.0429 ; 16.1922
vi tin cy 92%, gi tr trung bnh ca ch tiu X ca nhng sn phm loi B nm
trong khong 14.043 cm n 16.19 cm

b) Gi s trong kho c 1000 sn phm loi B.hy c lng s sn phm trong kho vi tin cy
92%.
= 1

= 92% = 0.92
( ( 1 1
;
n n n n
n n
F F F F
F z F z
n n

_

+


,

trong : ( )
. 092
. 046
2 2
z

tra bng gi tr hm Laplace , ta c :
z

= 1.75
mt khc: trong n = 1000 sn phm c m = 17 sn phm loi B nn t l mu sn phm
loi b l F
n
= 0.17.
vy c lng khong l :
. ( . ) . ( . ) 017 1 017 017 1 017
. . ; . . 017 1 75 017 1 75
100 100
_

+

,
= 9.55% ;
11.61%
vi tin cy 92%, t l sn phm laoij B nm trong khong t 9.55% n 11.61% trong kho c 1000
sn phm loi B
gi N l s sn phm c trong kho
ta c : t l sn phm loi B l 1000 / N
vi tin cy 92%, t l cc sn phm loi B t 9.55% n 11.61%

1000
. % . % 9 55 11 61
. . 9 55 1000 11 61
100 100
N
N

. . 1001000 1001000
. . 11 61 9 55
N

8613.26 N 10471.20

8613 N 10471
Vi tin cy 92% ta c lng trong kho c t 8613 n 10471 sn phm.
c) Gi s trong kho c 10.000 sn phm loi B.hy c lng s sn phm trong kho vi tin cy
92%.
(tng t cu b)