TH TRNG BN L VIT NAM NM 2011 V D BO NM 2012

Phan Th Ru Ch tch Hip hi Bn l Vit Nam

Nm 2011 kinh t th gii c nhiu bin ng xu tc ng tiu cc n kinh t v th trng bn l Vit Nam. Ngay t u nm, tnh hnh lm pht trong nc tng cao, nhng du hiu bt n v kinh t v m, li sut ngn hng tng mnh, t gi VN/USD cng nh gi vng bin ng lin tc v khng n nh; th trng bt ng sn m m; chng khon st gim, doanh nghip kht vn, sn xut nh tr, lao ng khng vic lm gia tng tc ng n lng tin ca ngi tiu dng v nh hng trc tip n th trng bn l. Cc nh bn l Vit Nam phi xoay x i ph vi nhng kh khn th thch. Th trng bn l Vit Nam vt kh Mc d kinh t th gii c nhiu kh khn nhng dung lng th trng bn l ca Vit Nam vn t quy m kh, kt thc nm 2011 c kh nng t mc 85-86 t USD, ng gp 15-16% GDP, bng 80-85% tng sn phm quc ni. Nguyn nhn chnh l do quy m nn kinh t tng, quy m th trng c m rng t nhng nm trc, cng mc dn s xp x 87 triu ngi vi nhu cu tiu dng tng tng nm v 70% thu nhp ca ngi tiu dng l dnh cho mua sm, i sng nhn dn tng bc c ci thin hu ht cc vng min ca c nc. T thng 8/2011, tng mc hng ha bn l, dch v tng chm li: thng 1 tng 8,9%, 6 thng ch tng 5,7%; 11 thng ch tng 4,1% so vi 11 thng ca nm 2010 (14,7%). Nu nhn mt cch tng th c th thy ch s gi tiu dng (CPI) leo thang ko tng mc bn l, tng sn phm quc ni chm li. Ngay t u nm 2011, Chnh ph thc hin nhiu gii php kim ch lm pht n nh kinh t v m, bo m an sinh x hi theo Ngh quyt 11/NQ-CP ban hnh ngy 24/2/2011 ca Chnh ph. Xt v tng th, th th trng cng b chi phi v chu tc ng ca cc gii php (mt tri ca chnh sch), l chnh sch tin t cht ch, chnh sch ti kha tht cht, gim u t cng, chi tiu cng, tit kim chi 10%, tng trng tiu dng cng b nh hng. Qua din bin ca tng mc bn l hng ha, dch v 11 thng nm 2011 th bn l hng ha khu vc nh nc tng cao mc d th phn ch chim 10,9% tng mc bn l, do cc bin php h tr mt s doanh nghip bn hng bnh n gi, tiu biu l thnh ph H Ni, thnh ph H Ch Minh. Khu vc t nhn tng kh v chim th phn 50,3%, khu vc ny tp trung 70% ngi tiu dng, i a s l dn c nng thn, dn ngho thnh th. Trong nm 2011, sc mua ca khu vc t nhn gim st hn nhiu so vi nhng nm trc y, trong kh khn, dn c khu vc ny ch tp trung mua sm hng thit yu bo m nhu cu ti thiu ca cuc sng. Nhn chung, th trng bn l Vit Nam vn gi c n nh, khng c nhng c sc thiu hng xy ra nh nm 2008, 2009. Mc d mt hng lng thc, thc phm din bin phc tp, tht thng theo xu hng tng, nhng gi lng thc, thc phm vn khng c t bin ln, ngun cung bo m k c nhng vng b thin tai nghim trng. Mt hng cng nghip gi gim v n nh, ngun cung di do th hin r yu t cnh tranh trong iu kin thc hin l trnh gim thu v t do ha
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thng mi theo cam kt T chc Thng mi th gii (WTO). Ring nhng mt hng cn bo h, c quyn nh nc nh in, xng du, than v nhng mt hng cha m ca th trng theo cam kt WTO, th din bin cung cu v cch qun l iu hnh gi c cn nhiu bt cp, gy bc xc cho ngi tiu dng, kh khn cho c quan qun l v doanh nghip c giao t chc thc hin (hu ht l doanh nghip nh nc). So vi nhng nm trc, th trng bn l Vit Nam c nhng bc tin mi: hnh thc bn l hin i pht trin kh, n nay c khong 600 siu th, trung tm thng mi vi hnh thc bn l hin i, tin ch, gi c hng ha n nh, cht lng hng ha bo m, thu ht nhiu tng lp ngi tiu dng do hnh thc ny mang li nhiu li ch hn. Cng vi hnh thc hin i, c nc c khong 9000 ch truyn thng, tp trung ch yu nng thn, ven th ln v cc th nh, phc v cho khong 70% ngi tiu dng trn ton quc. Bn cnh , cc doanh nghip bn l hng ha dch v c nhng bc trng thnh nhanh, c nng lc cnh tranh vi cc nh bn l nc ngoi ang u t vo Vit Nam. D bo trc c cuc cnh tranh gay gt trn mt trn bn l, nhiu doanh nghip thit lp c h thng bn l kh, ch yu xy dng cc siu th, trung tm thng mi, ca hng, ca hiu, h thng i l bn l rng khp, vi nhng sn phm nng, thy sn ch bin, hng tiu dng, hng cng nghip c gi tr ln, p ng tiu dng cho mi tng lp dn c, tiu biu nh: Hp tc x thnh ph H Ch Minh (SaigonCoop); Tng Cng ty Thng mi H Ni, Tng Cng ty Thng mi Si Gn, Tp on Ph Thi, Trn Anh, Nguyn Kim, v.v Ngoi ra, Vit Nam m ca th trng bn l ng vo thi im kinh t th gii suy thoi, t ngy 1/1/2009 th trng bn l Vit Nam c thm u t ca cc doanh nghip bn l nc ngoi. Nhng t thi gian n nay, cc doanh nghip nc ngoi ch yu ch thm d, tm hiu kh nng th trng vch ra chin lc u t lu di hn, v vy khng nh d bo, doanh nghip nc ngoi vo Vit Nam khng nhiu. Theo B Cng Thng n nay mi c 6 n 7 doanh nghip nc ngoi vo Vit Nam v h ch thit lp c mt s siu th, trung tm thng mi ln, hin i. Doanh s bn hng ca mt siu th, trung tm thng mi nc ngoi rt ln, theo tnh ton, doanh s ca 1 siu th nc ngoi bng tng doanh s ca nhiu siu th ca cc doanh nghip Vit Nam cng li. Nhiu doanh nghip nc ngoi cho rng chnh sch m ca th trng ca Vit Nam cha r rng. n nay, Vit Nam vn cha a ra tiu ch v m im bn l th 2 ca doanh nghip nc ngoi theo nh cam kt (Economic Needs Test ENT). Vi ro cn ny, cc tp on bn l ln ca nc ngoi kh lng xm nhp t vo nc ta trong mt thi gian di na. y cng chnh l c hi v khong trng v thi gian cc doanh nghip Vit Nam c th tn dng thi c xy dng kh nng cnh tranh v chim th phn. Nhng bt cp vn cn Th nht, Vit Nam l th trng ng dn (xp x 87 triu ngi) ng th 13 trn th gii, nhng thu nhp u ngi mi mc trung bnh thp trn (1000 USD), v vy, tc pht trin nhanh, nhng quy m th trng vn nh. Tng lp tiu dng phn ln nng thn, i sng kh khn, thu nhp khng n nh, dn tr tiu dng

khng cao, quen vi tiu dng truyn thng, chuyn dch tp qun tiu dng chm, nht l cc khu vc kinh t cn t cung, t cp. Th hai, th trng bn l Vit Nam d b tc ng ca th trng th gii, tnh hnh nhng nm 2009, 2010 v 2011 chng minh nhng tc ng . Tc ng r nht, mnh nht l gi hng ha dch v thng qua hot ng xut - nhp khu t go, ng, phn bn, thy sn, thuc cha bnh, thc phm nhp khu n xng du, st thp, nguyn liu thc n gia sc, t, nguyn liu u vo ca dt may, da giy c nhng bin ng mnh, ko theo ch s gi tiu dng tng cao (nh gi mua go xut khu tng, gi lng thc tng y CPI tng cao). Th ba, cht lng, gi c kh kim sot, v sinh cng nghip, v sinh an ton thc phm khng bo m, nh hng n sc khe ngi tiu dng gy bc xc d lun. Vic tng gi ty tin khng tng xng vi tiu chun cht lng hng ha, khng thc hin nghim tc k khai gi v nim yt gi mt cch cng khai minh bch, gy mt lng tin ca ngi tiu dng, lm nh hng, tn hi n c h thng. Th t, gian ln, sn xut hng gi, hng nhi nm 2011 tng hn nhng nm trc y. Theo Hip hi phng chng hng gi, nm 2011 cc c quan chc nng pht hin v x l 500.000 v sn xut, lu hnh hng gi, c nhiu sn phm hng gi chim 60-70%; vi phm quyn s hu tr tu, lm dng hnh thc qung b, qung co tm kim li nhun cao cha c x l; bun lu, bun bn hng cm thng xuyn xy ra khu vc bin gii, cc tuyn giao thng huyt mch nh hng n sn xut trong nc, lm ri lon th trng ni a. Th nm, h thng bn l ca Vit Nam ang c nhiu tng nc, lm tng chi ph lu thng, l k h hng gi, hng km cht lng len vo, k c cc siu th, cc ch cc th ln. Hng tiu dng nc ngoi nhp vo nc ta bng nhiu hnh thc, hng khng r ngun gc, km cht lng trn vo cc khu vc dn ngho; cha c h thng bn l hon chnh, c bit l khu vc nng thn, khu vc bin gii. y l nhng im yu ca th trng bn l, cc doanh nghip bn l Vit Nam trong nhng nm va qua. D bo nm 2012 Nm 2012, kinh t v th trng th gii c d bo l tng trng chm li do nh hng suy thoi kinh t t M, chu u cng vi nhng bt n x hi Bc Phi, Trung cn ng. Lm pht vn cao, tc tng trng kinh t thp hn nm 2011 cc nc kinh t mi ni, khu vc cc nc chu , s nh hng ln n kinh t Vit Nam v th trng bn l Vit Nam. Chnh ph tip tc thc hin Ngh Quyt 11 c iu chnh nhm n nh kinh t v m, kim ch lm pht, phc hi sn xut, kinh doanh, bo m an sinh x hi, chuyn m hnh pht trin chiu rng sang pht trin chiu su, pht trin cht lng hiu qu T nhng mc tiu pht trin ca nn kinh t, c th a ra d bo ban u cho th trng bn l theo chiu hng sau: Mt l, th trng bn l Vit Nam tip tc cha c t bin ln v quy m, dung lng th trng, cng nh tc tng trng. Tuy nhin, th trng bn l cn ty thuc vo bin ng ca nn kinh t v m. gi c th trng, quan h cung cu c n nh v gi vng, ty thuc vo l trnh thc hin c ch th trng i vi cc mt hng Nh nc quyt nh gi, qun l gi nh gi in, than, xng du

khng gy ra t bin, to ra nhng cn st gi lm mo m th trng vn cha c hon thin v th ch kinh t. Hai l, gi u vo ca nguyn vt liu, vt t u vo do phi nhp khu vn bin ng, gi xut khu ca mt s sn phm c bit l lng thc, nng sn xut khu vn dao ng kh lng gy thit hi cho nh sn xut, ngi tiu dng Vit Nam trong khi thu nhp thc t gim. Nu gi tng, tng gi bin ng, li sut ngn hng chm c iu chnh gim xung, th trng bn l Vit Nam s kh c s tng trng kh trong nm ti. Ba l, cuc cnh tranh trong lnh vc bn l gia cc doanh nghip nc ngoi vi doanh nghip trong nc, gia h thng doanh nghip bn l Vit Nam vn cha thc s bc vo giai on quyt lit, m h s vn thm lng theo ui nhng mc tiu di hn, chun b tim lc cnh tranh khi thi c n. Bn l, nm 2011, gian ln thng mi vn gia tng, tnh trng sn xut, lu thng hng gi, hng km cht lng vn din ra theo nhiu hnh thc ngy cng tinh vi hn. Bun lu qua bin gii cha c ngn chn. Cha c bin php hu hiu kim sot, x l hng ha, dch v cht lng km, hng ha khng m bo v sinh an ton thc phm, hng ha nhp khu bng nhiu hnh thc, xm phm nghim trng quyn li ngi tiu dng, nh hng ln n sn xut trong nc./.