Phn tch c bn

Trnh by: Ths. ng Ti An Trang

Ni dung
Khi nim phn tch c bn.
Cch tip cn trong phn tch c bn.
Phn tch v m.

Phn tch ngnh.

Phn tch cng ty.

Cc phng php nh gi c phiu

Phn tch c bn.

Phn tch c bn l phng php phn tch nh gi gi tr ca c

phiu v tim nng tng trng thng qua xem xt cc yu t c nh

hng ti c phiu nh chnh tr, kinh t, ti chnh v cc yu t nh
tnh, nh lng khc.
Cc yu t tc ng:

Kinh t
Tnh hnh ti chnh.
Cc iu kin ca ngnh.
Cc yu t nh lng v nh tnh.

Yu t nh lng

Phn tch cc ch s quan trng.

Cung cp c s d liu vng chc cho phn tch.

Yu t nh tnh

Phn tch cc d liu khng lng ho c.

Patent, qun tr cng ty, ti nng
Kh o lng bng s.

 Ti sao li phn tch c bn?

Tm ra cc cng ty tt, c trin vng.

Phn tch cc yu t nh hng ti gi tr cng ty.
Tm ra gi tr c th so snh vi gi th trng hin
ti.
Nu nh gi thp nn mua; nu nh gi cao,
nn bn.
Ngi thnh cng ni ting s dng phng php
ny: Warren Buffett.
4

Cc loi gi tr
Chng ta quan tm ti 4 loi gi tr sau:
Gi tr s sch (Book Value) Gi tr tnh trn vn
ch s hu trong Bng cn i k ton (Tng ti
sn tr tng n)
Gi tr s sch hu hnh (Tangible Book Value)
Gi tr s sch tr i cc ti sn v hnh nh
goodwill, patents
Gi tr th trng (Market Value) Gi tr ca ti
sn c xc nh da trn th trng cnh tranh.
Gi tr ni ti (Intrinsic Value) Gi tr hin ti ca
cc khon tin k vng trong tng lai c chit
khu theo li sut yu cu ca ngi ra quyt nh.
5

Quy trnh phn tch

Phn tch mi trng v m:
Kinh t, chnh tr th gii.
Mi trng chnh tr - x hi trong nc
Mi trng chnh sch v php lut trong nc.
H thng php l ca TTCK c xy dng nh th no?
C bo m quyn li ca NT khng?
Khuyn khch v hn ch trong h thng php lut.
S n nh ca h thng php lut.
Mi trng kinh t v m trong nc:
GDP, t l tht nghip, lm pht, li sut, thm ht ngn
sch, t gi hi oi, chnh sch v m ca Chnh ph.
6

 Chu k kinh doanh.

nh?
y?

Quan h ngnh vi chu k kinh doanh

Theo chu k?
Phng v (Defensive)

PHN TCH TH TRNG VIT NAM

Th trng mi ni: Thnh cng ca ci cch v m ca
Tc tng trng kinh t cao, trn 7% - 8%
t trn 3% danh mc u t th trng Chu
u t trc tip nc ngoi tip tc tng mnh
Chnh sch ci cch c tc dng.
Tiu dng tng trng mnh, khong 20%/nm. ng th 3

th gii v tc tng tiu dng.

Ci cch hiu qu h thng ti chnh, h thng doanh nghip
u t mnh c s h tng

(tip)
Pht trin qu u t, k c cc qu u t nc ngoi

Th trng pht trin,

a dng ho cc loi chng khon, cht lng ci thin

Ch s P/E kh cao.

Doanh thu v li nhun tng cao.

Th trng bt ng sn ng bng, gi qu cao

Th trng tin t c iu tit tt.
Lnh mnh ho v pht trin h thng ngn hng.

TH TRNG VIT NAM: THCH THC

Gi tr giao dch thp, tnh thanh khon cha cao.

Th trng ch yu l cc nh u t nh
Vn yu km trong qun tr cng ty, thiu minh bch
Nhiu ni dung ci cch cn thc hin na vi.
Tham nhng, trn thu, gian ln thng mi
H thng lut cha ng b, cha ph hp vi thng l quc t
Tnh cnh tranh ca nn kinh t thp.
Hiu qu cha cao.
Nhu cu u t ln, p lc v vn cao, bi chi ngn sch ln
Th trng bt ng sn gi cao.

10

TH TRNG VIT NAM:C HI

Nhu cu u t ln.

Th trng tri phiu s pht trin mnh.

Ci cch h thng ti chnh, tnh thanh khon tng, dch

v tng.
Ci cch doanh nghip:

C phn ho cc NHTMNN, cc tng cng ty ln.

Hon thin qun tr iu hnh, tng minh bch.

Bng n tiu dng, tng u t c s h tng

C hi t hi nhp quc t
H thng lut dn c hon thin.
11

Phn tch ngnh

Ti sao phi phn tch ngnh?

Tc tng trng doanh thu, li nhun ca ngnh.

Chu k sng ca ngnh ( tham gia v rt khi ngnh ng lc).
Ri ro mi ngnh khc nhau ( xc nh t sut li nhun tng xng)
Yu t cnh tranh trong ngnh
Xc nh danh mc u t
Yu t chnh sch: khuyn khch hoc khng, chnh sch xut nhp
khu, thu
Mc tiu
La chn ngnh?
Xc nh thu nhp ngnh
nh gi ri ro ngnh

12

Doanh thu

Thi gian
G1

G2

G3

G4

G5
13

Yu t cnh tranh i vi ngnh

Mc cnh tranh gia cc cng ty hin ti.

i th tim nng tham gia vo ngnh

Sc mnh mc c ca ngi mua.
Sc mnh mc c ca ngi cung cp
Cc sn phm thay th.

14

 Tc tng trng ca ngnh: giai on u/cui?

Mc tp trung v sc mnh tng i gia cc

i th cnh tranh.
Mc khc bit v sn phm.
Kinh t theo quy m.
Hng ro gia nhp ngnh.

15

 Tnh hiu qu nh quy m.

Li th ca ngi i u, v d Microsoft.
Kh nng tip cn cc knh phn phi.
Hng ro php l: bn quyn, bng sng ch....

16

 Mc nhy cm ca gi:

Gi nhy cm khi sn phm khng khc bit.

Chi ph thay i tm sn phm thp.
Tm quan trng ca sn phm trong c cu chi ph
ca ngi mua.

Sc mnh mc c tng i:

Ph thuc chi ph pht sinh khi chm dt quan h.

Tng quan gia s ngi mua v ngi bn.
Sn phm thay th.
17

 Danh mc u t cn iu chnh bng cch chn

cc cng ty hot ng tt trong giai on chu k

kinh doanh.

nh (Peaks) ngnh khai thc ti nguyn, nng

lng.
Suy thoi (Contraction) cc ngnh c tnh phng
v nh dc, thc phm.
y (Trough) hng t bn (capital goods).
M rng (Expansion) cc ngnh c tnh bin
ng theo chu k nh hng tiu dng lu bn.
18

Phn tch cng ty

Mc ch:

nh gi v la chn cng ty tt.

Phn tch v tm ra cng ty c tim nng.

C phiu tng trng:

Cng ty c nhng c hi u t vi doanh thu cao v li nhun tng

trng kh mnh.
C phiu tng trng l c phiu cho li tc cao hn nhng c phiu
khc vi cng mc ri ro..
C phiu trung tnh:
Khng chu tc ng nhiu bi chu k kinh t. V d: thc phm bn
l, ru, bia, thuc l, in, nc, in thoi...
C phiu theo chu k: chu nh hng ca chu k kinh t. V d: st, thp,
ho cht cng nghip, t...
C phiu u c: c th mang li thu nhp trong thi gian ngn nhng ri
ro rt cao.
C phiu thu nhp: thng u tin cho chi tr c tc hn l gi li LN
ti u t.

19

Mt s ch s ti chnh c bn
Phn tch bo co ti chnh nhm mc ch nh gi:

Tnh thanh khon (kh nng tr n ngn hn)

Kh nng thanh ton (tr n di hn)
Kh nng sinh li.
Hiu qu hot ng.
Bo co ti chnh bao gm:

Bng cn i k ton.
Bo co kt qu HSXKD.
Bo co lu chuyn tin t.
Thuyt minh bo co ti chnh (kim ton)
Ngoi ra, bo co m t trin vng.
20

 Cn lu cc im:
Mc trung thc v chnh xc trong cc nhn xt?
H c ni nhiu v tnh hnh ti chnh nhng nm qua?
Mc r rng trong nhng li nhn xt? (ni ln th nn t
vn )
H c cp ti cc ri ro s gp phi?
Bng cn i k ton:

Trnh by tnh hnh ti chnh cng ty ti mt thi im

Tng ti sn = Tng n + Vn CSH.
Ti sn bao gm: TSL + TSC v TS khc.
Tng n bao gm: N ngn hn v di hn.
21

BNG CN I K TON
Ti sn

1/1/N

31/12/N

Ngun vn

1/1/N

31/12/N

I. TS ngn hn

320

410 I. N ngn hn

270

110

1. Tin

100

120 1. Vay ngn hng

200

2. CK d bn

100

130 2. Phi tr

70

110

200

200

1350

2100

1000

1500

200

300

150

300

1820

2410

3. Phi thu

50

70 II. N di hn

4. D tr

70

90 III. Vn ch s hu

II. TS di hn

1500

2000 1. Vn gp

TSC

1000

1300 2. Thng d vn

2. T di hn

500

Tng ti sn

1820

1.

700 3. Li nhun tch ly

2410 Tng ngun vn

22

Bo co KQ HSXKD
Cho bit trong mt khong

thi gian, cng ty thu bao

nhiu? Chi bao nhiu? V
chnh lch gia 2 khon
(li/l)?

Doanh thu
Gi vn hng bn

Chi ph hot ng
Li sut
Li trc thu

Li sau thu
Li trn mi CP (EPS)
23

BO CO KT QU KINH DOANH
Ch tiu
1.Doanh thu

Nm N- Nm N
1
750
850

2. Gi vn hng bn

350

400

3. Li gp = 1 - 2

400

450

4. Chi ph bn hng & Qun l

150

170

5. EBIT = 3 - 4

250

280

50

30

7. Li nhun trc thu = 5 - 6

200

250

8. Li nhun sau thu = 7(1 TS)

144

180

6. Chi ph li vay

24

BO CO LU CHUYN TIN T
Cho bit cc lung tin vo/ra thc t ca cng ty
trong khong thi gian. Xc nh mc tn qu ti tng
thi im
Mc tn qu cui k = Tn qu u k + Chnh

lch
Chnh lch = Thu trong k - Chi trong k
Cc ni dung bao gm:

Tin t hot ng thng thng.

Tin t hot ng u t (mua bn ti sn...)
Tin t hot ng ti chnh (pht hnh CP...)
Tng/gim thun.
25

 Thuyt minh bo co (ca kim ton):

cp ti trch nhim ca kim ton vin v cc gim

c ni chung. Lit k cc phn c kim ton.
Lit k phng php k ton c p dng v cc lnh
vc ca cng ty c nh gi.
kin ca kim ton v ti chnh cng ty (ch l
kin)

26

Mt s ch s ti chnh c bn
Kh

nng thanh ton.

Hs kh n ng thanh to n hin thi =

Hs thanh to n nhanh =

Ti sn l u ng
N ngn h n

Ti sn l u ng Hng tn kho
N ngn h n

nh gi hiu qu hot ng:

Doanh thu hng n m
C c khon phi thu
Gi vn hng b n
V ng quay hng tn kho =
Hng tn kho
Doanh s hng b n
V ng quay t
ng ti sn =
T
ng ti sn
Hs quay vng c c khon phi thu =

27

Doanh s hng b n
V ng quay ti sn c nh =
Ti sn c nh
Doanh s hng b n
Hs vng quay vn ch s hu =
V n ch s hu
Doanh s hng b n
V n ch s hu
Doanhs hng b n
Tng ti sn

x
Tng ti sn
V n ch s hu
Hs vng quay vn ch s hu =

V ng quay tng ti sn x hs n by ti chnh

Hs n trn tng ti sn =

Cc h s n by ti chnh

Hs n trn vn cphn =

Tng n
Tng ti sn

Tng n
V n cphn

28

Vn lu ng rng = Ti sn ngn hn - N ngn hn

Cc h s kh nng sinh li.

L i nhun rng
T
ng doanh thu
L i nhun rng
Hs l i nhun rng trn tng ti sn =
Tng ti sn
Hs l i nhun rng =

Hs l i nhun rng trn vn cphn (ROE) =

L i nhun rng
V n cphn

Cc h s thu nhp v c phiu

Hs thu nhp trn cphn (EPS)=

Thu nhp rng

S cphiu th ng ang l u hnh

T lchi tr ctc (payout ratio) =

Ctc trn mi cphiu

Thu nhp trn mi cphiu (EPS)
29

 ROE =

NI

NI Li nhun sau thu

S Doanh thu
A - Tng ti sn
E - Vn ch s hu
NI/S - T sut li nhun/doanh thu
S/A H s vng quay tng ti sn
A/E H s tng ti sn trn vn CSH (n by ti
chnh).
30

PHN TCH C PHIU VINAMILK

Vinamilk l cng ty ln, sn phm kh a dng

8 Cng ty thnh vin, mng li phn phi rng khp ton quc
Nm 2005 cng ty c 220 nh phn phi, 90.000 i l
90% tiu dng ni a, gm: H gia nh, nh hng, cc n v
Cc i th cnh tranh chnh: Dutch Lady, Nestle Vietnam, Nutifood,

Hanoi milk, F&N Company

Phng thc cnh tranh: Trc tip: gi thp, qung co, sn phm mi
v mng li phn phi Yu cu v vn ln, chi ph qung co ln,
a dng ho sn phm v knh phn phi.

31

PHN TCH NGNH SA

Sn lng sa hin ti 547, 3 triu lt/nm; 7,9 lt/ngi-nm

Sn phm ngnh c chp nhn

Thiu khong 120 triu lt/nm
Theo tiu chn WHO: 200 lt/ngi-nm

Kinh t tng trng tt, thu nhp v tiu dng tng

Th trng pht trin vi tc 20 25%/nm
S lng doanh nghip ngnh sa s tng, c bit sau hi

nhp
Ngnh ang giai on 2, tng trng vi tc cao,
6%/nm
32

YU T CNH TRANH
Th trng nh cung cp: Ph thuc nhp khu

Th trng ni a: 15 20%; Chin lc: 40%

Nhp khu: 80 -85%
Th trng sn phm: Trin vng tng khi lng v gi
Mc tiu dng s tng theo thu nhp v iu kin sng
Dn s tng
Hng thay th: Khng c
i th tim tng:
T cc doanh nghip mi trong nc v nhp khu
Ro cn: Vn u t; knh phn phi; i mi sn phm; qung co;
li th nh quy m; chnh sch bo h
Kt lun:
- Sn lng s tng khong 20% trong 10 nm ti
- Tiu dng sa s khon 35 lt/ngi-nm

33

PHN TCH CNG TY

Ti sn

2005

2004

2003

2002

TS ngn hn

2,406,477,000,000

1,865,188,777,944

2,005,723,330,450

1,793,337,675,676

TS di hn

1,491,459,000,000

785,201,894,504

530,164,965,484

310,333,037,491

Tng TS

3,897,936,000,000

2,650,390,672,448

2,535,888,295,934

2,103,670,713,167

1,651,018,000,000

733,081,541,662

992,322,221,710

605,097,266,019

N ngn hn

1,581,146,000,000

609,694,767,301

878,563,582,386

559,907,618,220

69,872,000,000

123,386,774,361

113,758,639,323

45,189,647,799

Vn ch s hu

2,246,918,000,000

1,917,309,130,786

1,543,566,074,224

1,498,573,447,148

Tng ngun

3,897,936,000,000

2,650,390,672,448

2,535,888,295,934

2,103,670,713,167

Ngun vn

N di hn

34

Ti sn

2005

2004

2003

2002

TS ngn hn

61.74%

70.37%

79.09%

85.25%

TS di hn

38.26%

29.63%

20.91%

14.75%

100%

100%

100%

100%

2005

2004

2003

2002

42.36%

27.66%

39.13%

28.76%

N ngn hn

40.56%

23.00%

34.65%

26.62%

N di hn

1.79%

4.66%

4.49%

2.15%

Vn ch s
hu

57.64%

72.34%

60.87%

71.24%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Tng TS
Ngun vn

Tng ngun

35

Nm

2005

2004

2003

2002

5,638,700,000,000

4,240,806,736,910

3,343,789,627,238

4,731,647,875,312

55,300,000,000

60,551,043,355

142,687,160,682

60,628,312,023

4,379,790,000,000

3,171,281,735,180

2,341,747,275,353

3,389,228,749,839

654,100,000,000

443,214,732,969

367,522,951,590

581,521,979,653

80,430,000,000

89,236,822,535

90,894,130,303

134,561,032,887

Chi ph khc

2,320,000,000

769,225,010

12,256,004,681

129,538,841

CF t.l TSC

1,800,000,000

272,880,067

2,001,032,042

125,888,768

520,000,000

496,344,943

10,254,972,639

3,650,073

Li nhun
tr.thu

602,400,000,000

557,231,013,066

726,464,892,837

653,053,229,784

LN sau thu

605,200,000,000

526,612,677,259

493,996,127,129

444,188,196,253

Doanh thu
Thu nhp ti
chnh
Gi vn

Chi ph bn
hng
Chi ph qun l

Chi ph khc

36

Nm

2005

2004

2003

100%

100%

100%

Gi vn

77.67%

74.78%

70.03%

Chi ph bn hng

11.60%

10.45%

10.99%

1.43%

2.10%

2.72%

Li nhun T. thu

10.68%

13.14%

21.73%

Li nhun sau thu

10.73%

12.42%

14.77%

Doanh thu

Chi ph qun l

Nm

2005

2004

2003

Kh nng thanh ton hin hnh

1.46

2.54

2.02

Kh nng thanh ton nhanh

0.76

0.95

1.04

Vng quay khon phi thu

12.16

16.30

9.32

4.48

3.44

3.43

47.79

15.18

36.76
37

Vng quay hng tn kho

K thu tin bnh qun

Nm

2005

2004

2003

T l n di hn/vn di hn

0.03

0.06

0.07

Tng n/tng vn di hn

0.42

0.28

0.39

755,459

1,132,107

1,013,401

Vn lu ng rng

Nm

2005

2004

2003

ROA

18.70%

20.54%

21.82%

ROE

29.07%

30.43%

32.48%

T sut li nhun doanh thu

10.73%

12.42%

14.77%

Vng quay tng ti sn

1.72

1.64

1.44

n by ti chnh

1.57

1.50

1.53
38

PHN TCH KH NNG TNG TRNG

Kh nng tng trng ph thuc ROE v li nhun gi li

Do yu t cnh tranh, m rng u t, li nhun bin gim

Hiu qu s dng ti sn tng, n by hot ng cao
n by ti chnh kh n nh, ri ro ti chnh thp

Ri ro t gi cao do nhp khu nguyn liu, tiu th ni a

Kh nng a dng ho u t cao
Kh nng thanh ton tt
Vinamilk t tc tng trng n nh 17 20%

39

Cc m hnh nh gi
Cc m hnh c bn

M hnh chit khu c tc (Dividend Discount

Models).
M hnh thu nhp (Earnings model)
M hnh chit khu dng tin.
T l PE

40

Gi tr ni ti v gi tr th trng
Gi

Gi tr do nh gi ch quan
S dng cc m hnh khc nhau nh gi.

Gi

tr th trng (Market Price)

Loi gi tr c thng nht chung gia nhng

ngi tham gia.

Tn

tr ni ti (Intrinsic Value)

hiu giao dch

IV > MP: Mua

IV < MP: Bn hoc bn khng.
IV = MP: Gi.
41

M hnh chit khu lung c tc

Dt
Vo
t
t 1 (1 k )
V0 = Gi tr ca c phiu
Dt = C tc
k = li sut yu cu
42

M hnh tng trng u n (Gordon Model)

Do (1 g )
Vo
kg
g = tc tng trng u n

43

V d

Do (1 g )
Vo
kg
E1 = $5.00
b = 40%
k = 15%
(1-b) = 60%
D1 = $3.00 g = 8%
V0 = 3.00 / (.15 - .08) = $42.86
44

c lng cc yu t u vo cho m hnh

M

hnh DDM i hi phi c lng tc tng

trng c tc v t sut li nhun yu cu.
Tc tng trng c tc c th c lng theo 3
cach:

S dng tc tng trng qu kh v gi nh n c

duy tr tip tc.
S dng: g = ROE x b
T xy dng phng php d bo thch hp.

T sut li nhun yu cu c c lng thng qua m

hnh CAPM: ki = krf + bi(km krf).

45

M hnh DDM m rng

C th s dng m hnh DDM vo bt c thi

im no.
V d khi mun tnh gi CP c th bn sau 2 nm.
M hnh tng qut ho DDM:
D N 1 g

D N 1
VN

k CS g
k CS g
tnh gi c phiu vo nm th 2, chng ta ch

cn s dng c tc ca nm th 3 (D3).

46

The DDM Example (cont.)

V d CP X c c tc nm th hai 2.16$; tc

tng trng 8%, t sut li nhun yu cu 15%,

vy gi trong 2 nm sau bng bao nhiu?
V2

2.161.08
.15.08

2.33

33.33
015
. .08

47

Nu tc tng trng c tc thay i?

V d: gi s c tc tng trng mc 15% trong

vng 3 nm ti trc khi n nh mc 8%. Gi

tr c phiu by gi s bng bao nhiu? (D0 =
1.85)

2.1275

2.4466

2.8136

g = 15%

3.0387

g = 8%

48

(tip)
Chng ta c th tnh gi tr CP vo cui nm th ba

bng cch s dng D4:

V3

3.0387
43.41
.15 .08

By gi, tm gi tr hin ti ca mc gi bn tng lai

v gi tr hin ti ca D1, D2, v D3:

2.1275 2.4466 2.8136 43.41

V0

34.09
2
3
1.15
1.15
1.15

49

M hnh nh gi 2 giai on DDM

V d trn ch ra cch tnh gi tr c phiu vi 2

tc tng trng khc nhau. Cc cng ty c k

vng tc tng trng rt cao, sau tc thp
hn s p dng theo m hnh sau:
D0 1 g1 1 g 2
n
D0 1 g1 1 g1
kCS g 2

kCS g1 1 kCS

k
CS

VCS

50

(tip)
M hnh ny cng khng qu phc tp nh chng

ta thy:
Gi tr th nht l gi tr hin ti ca c tc trong
N nm u tin.
Gi tr th hai l gi tr hin ti ca gi tr tng lai
ca c phiu.
n
D 0 1 g 1 1 g 2
n

D 0 1 g 1 1 g 1
k CS g 2

VC S
1

1 k C S n
k C S g 1 1 k C S

51

M hnh H
Tc tng trng gim tuyn tnh trong 2H nm,

t ga n gn.

Gi s Cng ty A chi tr c tc trn mi c phiu 0.72$ t

EPS 1.25$ nm 2000. EPS tng 12% trong 5 nm qua

nhng sau k vng s gim tuyn tnh trong 10 nm tip
xung 5%, trong khi t l chi tr c tc khng i. Beta
cho CP ny l 0.8, li sut phi ri ro 5.1% v mc b ri ro
th trng l 4%. nh gi CP trn.
52

M hnh nh gi trong giai on nm gi nht

nh

P
D
D
D

...
V
(1 k ) (1 k ) (1 k )
1

N
N

PN = Gi bn k vng thi im N
N = S nm k vng nm gi

53

V d
Gi s bn ang xem xt mua c phiu s tr c tc $2

(D1) trong nm ti, v $2.16 (D2) nm tip theo. Sau nm

th 2, bn nh bn c phiu vi gi $33.33. Vy gi tr ni
ti ca c phiu ny l bao nhiu nu t sut li nhun yu
cu ca bn l 15%?
?

VCS

33.33
2.16

2.00

2.00

1.15

2.16 33.33

1.15

28.57

54

M hnh thu nhp/li nhun

Li nhun hin ti (Current earnings) c gi

nh khng tng trng v chi tr c tc 100%.

Nu li nhun hin ti c duy tr vi chi tr c
tc 100%, chng ta c:

VCE

EPS1

55

nh gi theo h s PE
P/E l hm ca 2 yu t

T sut li nhun yu cu (k)

Tc tng trng c tc k vng

S dng cho

nh gi tng i
S dng rng ri trong ngnh.

56

P/E: Khng tng trng

E1
P0
k
P0
1

E1 k
E1 - li nhun k vng trong nm ti.
E1 bng D1 trong iu kin khng tng trng

k - t sut li nhun yu cu.

57

P/E vi tc tng trng u n

D1
E1(1 b)
P0

k g k (b ROE )
P0
1 b

E1 k (b ROE )
b = T l li nhun gi li
ROE = Li nhun sau thu trn VCSH.

58

V d trong trng hp khng tng trng

E0 = $2.50 g = 0 k = 12.5%
P0 = D/k = $2.50/.125 = $20.00
PE = 1/k = 1/.125 = 8

59

V d

b = 60% ROE = 15% (1-b) = 40%

E1 = $2.50 (1 + (.6)(.15)) = $2.73
D1 = $2.73 (1-.6) = $1.09
k = 12.5% g = 9%
P0 = 1.09/(.125-.09) = $31.14
PE = 31.14/2.73 = 11.4
PE = (1 - .60) / (.125 - .09) = 11.4
60

Hn ch khi s dng PE
S dng li nhun theo s sch k ton

Cc chi ph mang tnh lch s

C th khng phn nh cc khon li nhun mang
tnh kinh t.

Li nhun bo co dao ng theo chu k kinh

doanh.

61

M hnh FCFE (Free cash flow to equity)

Lung tin m cng ty c th c chi tr c tc

nhng khc vi c tc thc t v lung tin ny

khng c chi tr c tc trong thc t.
Lung tin cn li sau khi chi tr li v gc, chi

ph cho vn u t duy tr ti sn hin ti v

hnh thnh cc ti sn mi.

62

 FCFE = Thu nhp rng (Net Income) + Khu hao

(Depreciation) Chi ph vn (Capital Spending) Chnh

lch vn lu ng (Working Capital) S tin hon tr
n gc (Principal Repayments) + S tin vay mi (New
Debt Issues)
Nu chi ph vn rng v thay i vn lu ng c ti tr
bi t trng vn ch s hu v i vay c nh th cng thc
c th rt gn. Gi s chi ph vn rng v thay i vn lu
ng c ti tr bi n vay vi t l , ta c:
FCFE = Net Income - (1 - )(Capital Expenditure
Depreciation) - ( 1- ) Working Capital
63

V d: c lng FCFE cho Home Depot 1989

1998.

64

c lng tng trng trong FCFE

Tc tng trng k vng = T l LN gi li x

ROE
Trong m hnh FCFE, t l LN gi li c thay
bng t l ti u t (TLTT):
TLTT = (CP vn rng + Thay i VL pht
hnh n vay rng)/Thu nhp rng
ROE phi tin mt = (Thu nhp rng Thu nhp
sau thu t tin v CK)/(VCSH - Tin v CK).
Tc tng trng = TLTTxROE phi tin mt
65

 M hnh FCFE c tc tng trng c nh

M hnh FCFE 2 giai on:

Trong
66

 M hnh 3 giai on:

Pn2

67

im mnh v im yu ca phn tch c bn

im mnh:

Tt cho u t di hn thng qua phn tch nn kinh t.

La chn cng ty tt.
Hiu c cc yu t chnh tc ng ti gi tr cng
ty/ngnh.
im yu:
Mt nhiu thi gian.
Tnh ch quan (cc gi nh v tng trng)
Cc thng tin phn tch khng y v khng chnh
xc (cc bo co ti chnh).

68