1

2004 43

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 43

........................................................................... 5
................................................................................................... 6
FIBO ................................................................................................................................. 8
TeleTRADE D.J. ............................................................................................................. 13
? ForexTrader. .............................................................................. 14
. ............................................................................. 19
EUR/USD 15.11.2004 ................................................................................................................ 23
AUDUSD - Silver-channel ......................................................... 28
.................................................................................. 31
USD/JPY: ................................................................................................... 33
: ..................................................................................................... 36
....................................................................................................................... 39
............................................................... 41
.......................................................................................................... 43
- ............................................................................................... 49
.................................................................................................................................. 51
, . ............................................................................................. 54

FOREX MAGAZINE

www.alpari.org
(095) 29-111-29

.
"FOREX MAGAZINE" .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 43

"" -

"" -
""
, -.

"".

, 6-
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FOREX. , -
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. 2000 (!) .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 "" -

2004 43

"", .
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www.alpari.org
:
(095)29-111-29, 250-95-00.
!

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 43

FOREX Review

(msk)

15.11.2004

16.3

17.4

20

1.10%

1.30%

0.10%

0.50%

.
16.11.2004

12.3

HICP Y/Y

.
16.11.2004

16.3

PPI M/M

. .
16.11.2004

16.3

PPI . . M/M

0.30%

0.10%

. , , .
.
16.11.2004

17

- .

59.0 .

55.0 .

-200

0,000

2.40%

2.40%

-0.60%

-0.40%

.
17.11.2004

12.3

M/M

.
17.11.2004

12.3

BoE 3-4.11

.
17.11.2004

13

HICP (.) Y/Y

.
17.11.2004

13

M/M

, .
- , . ( )
.
17.11.2004

13

Y/Y

1.50%

1.00%

. .
, , , .
17.11.2004

16.3

1.898 .

1.980 .

1.998 .

1.980 .

0.20%

0.40%

0.30%

0.20%

0.10%

0.40%

.
17.11.2004

16.3

.
17.11.2004

16.3

CPI M/M

.
17.11.2004

16.3

CPI . . M/M

.
17.11.2004

17.15

M/M

, .
17.11.2004

17.15

77.20%

77.40%

1.00%

-0.50%

. , .
18.11.2004

BoJ

.
18.11.2004

12.3

M/M

, , .
18.11.2004

12.3

Y/Y

6.90%

6.50%

8-13.11

333,000

330,000

-0.10%

-0.10%

28.5

23

. .
18.11.2004

16.3

.
18.11.2004

18

M/M

.
18.11.2004

20

.
19.11.2004

17.3

. .-.

www.forexreview.ru

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

, , .

1.3000 /. ,
,
, .
,
.
337 . ( 175 . .).
.
. ,
, .
, .
, -
.
- ,
.

2004 43

,
200 .

50 .
,
, / / . 1.2900-1.3000.
,

. , :
. ,
25
2.0%.
, , , .
,
1.2900 .
, / ,
, .

,
. ZEW 17 . /

.
, :
,
, .

, ,
. , ?
,
,
.
, , .
, . -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

. / 1.3000.
,
. , ().
: .
: ,
.
. ,
. , ..
.

2004 43

/
1.3000, , /
1.3200.

, 1.2720 1.2650.
/
105.00-110.00.
, , , /.

ForexMagazine
http://www.fxclub.org

, , ,
. ,
, , .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 43

FIBO

FOREX FIBO
-
-
.
.
, , ,
.

- ,

.
.
95.5 91.7 .

,

25 2.0%. ,


. ,
2.75%, 40 .

2.0% ,

, -
.

, 55
47
. ,
SP-500 NASDAQ-100 , . ,
, .

, .
0.8% 0.8%
51.56 . 53.55 .
0.5%,

14.2%, 16.7%.
0.2%,
0.9%, .
1.5%
,
, 0.2%.

, .
,
, 10 .
. ,
,
- .


.
, .
. . , . -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

, , EZ, .

83.50, 83.00 81.80 78.19,
1992 . 84.00,

84.67, 85.20 85.66.
. EUR/USD

,
1.2975.
,
.

,
.
,
,
.
EZ ,
.
ZEW
.
ZEW 17 31.3 13.9.

.
, 0.1%
, 1.3%.
,
0.3% 1.5% . 0.4% 0.5% -

2004 43

.
,
0.1%. EZ 0.3%.
1.8% , , EZ .
, ,
, EZ
.
.
, , 1.3005 ( ),

EZ. .. , "
, /,
". , 2.0% , ,
, .
,
.
,
, .
.
, , 47
, EZ
2.0% . ,
, , .
, , ,
EZ ,

. ,
,
. , . ,
,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

2004 43

,
.
EZ,

.

EZ. .
EUR/USD 1.3005,
1.3040,
1.3140 1.3205.
EUR/USD . 1.2620, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
1.1988 1.3005.

1.2835, 1.2760 1.2660.
. 17 1.8617, . , , 1.8564, .

.
, 0.7%
3.5% . 1.8% 8.4% .

. 0.6% 2.9%
.
- .

13.8% ,

10

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

0.1%.

, .
1.1%. ,
2.0%
2006 .
,
. ,
, .
, ,
700 , 1.7500
.


4.5 . 5.2 .
.
5%, 1.5%.
.

,
0.5%. ,
,
,
.

, ,
RICS. ,
.
GBP/USD .
GBP/USD

11

2004 43

1.8620
1.8777,
1.9140.
. GBP/USD
1.8320.
GBP/USD
. GBP/USD
1.8410, 1.8320, 1.8180, 1.8620, 1.8777,
1.8940.
. USD/JPY
105.30, , 107.30
,
. -
.
.
, .

47.7 462 ,
, .

, 12.9%
, 9.37 . ,
.
13.1%
29.23 . , 19.8%, - 21.8%.
,
9.1%, - 2.1%. 7.67
. , 5.81 . . 9.3% 1.74 . ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

, . 13.4% 1.06 . ,
5.18 . , 3,75 . .
1.9% ,
0.9%.
5,0%.
,

. , , .
0.3%
, 2.1%.
, ,
, . ,
,
0.4%,
3.5% .
, , , : 0.9%, . ,
,

.
, , " ", .

2004 43

103.40. USD/JPY

, .
USD/JPY 105.00, 104.20 103.40, 106.60/70, 107.30, 108.20.

FIBO
Forex Magazine
http://www.fibo-forex.ru

,
, USD/JPY
105.00,

12

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 TeleTRADE D.J.

2004 43

TeleTRADE D.J.

,
.
FOMC
.
. / 1.30.
1.30
25

. , -

" ". ,
.
.
, ,
, .

(IEA) , , ,
.
,
.

2% FOMC : " ,
, ,
. -

13

".
FOMC 10 ,
, .
, ,
2%.
,
.
, , .

, , , , , .
,

. ,
, , .
15.11-19.11
( : PPI, CPI ). , ,
,
TIC,
.
,
-
Teletrade D.J.
e-mail: analitics@trust-com.ru

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 43

? ForexTrader.

?
-
-
(www.forextrader.ru), ,

. -
, Forex.

FOREX
15-19.11.2004

FOREX, MSK

16:30-22:30

12:30-15:30
16:30-21:30

12:30-15:30
16:30-22:30

10:00-15:00
16:30-22:30

10:45--22:30

, , , ,
, . , - ,
- , .
- , .
G-20 (19-21 ),
FOREX .
- ,
FOREXTRADER http://www.forextrader.ru/ .

14

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 43

ForexTrader

EUR
:

16-30 NY Fed
Empire State manufacturing index .
12-30 . 1630 .
12-30 ,
13-00 - . 16-30 -17-15 . .
- 10
. 16-30 - .
10-45 .
- , , .
,

.

,
3 . -
(1.1929-1,1292).
4 ,
5 . 5 1.4685-1.6383. , .

3 (1,3070 - , 1,3752 ). 4 1,27541,2341. - 5- 1,3780.

15

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 ForexTrader

2004 43

CHF

14.11.04.

3
1,0477-0,6389, 4
1,2938-1,3732, - 5 0,4047.

3 (1,1580-1,0805), 4- (1,19561,2126) 5- - 1,0805.

CHF 14.11.04.

16

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 43

ForexTrader

GBP

4 1.7159-1.5889,
5- 2,03002,2335.

4 , 5
2,0050-2,1640. 4
1,7500-1,7000.

JPY

GBP 14.11.04.

17

,
- 3 ,
96,50, - 4
114,70-118,65. - 5 84,51-66,00.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 ForexTrader

JPY 3
103,34.

2004 43

JPY
14.11.04
,
FOREXTRADER.RU
E-mail: trader_karlo@mail.ru

18

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

$48.00 .
Nymex WTI $1.72
$47.37 .
IPE ""
$2.21 $43.71 .


, 10 .

""
.
3 . , .

,
, , .
, , . , CFTC, , -

19

2004 43

2 ,
NYMEX 117 340 100 427,
20 963
5 236. ,
.
2.8
. . , , -
2 . . 2.8 .
. ,
,
, ,

. ,
,
?
, , .


EIA 10 . WTI
$47.00 .
, 18:30 . ""
. EIA,
, 5 ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 43

1.8.
291.5 . . , 1.4 .
, .

,
, 5
600000 670.3 . .

400000 201.3
. , 7.5 . .

, 10
- $1, .

. , ,
, ,
.
100000 115.6 . .
17 . ,
, .

, ,
. ,
13 .
115.6 . , , , - ,
.

,
, 100000 48.4 . , 10.1 . ,
. , 65.2 . .

WTI Nymex
$1.49 $48.86 ,
$49.00.

, 5
, 10.5 . .
230000
, ,
342000 .

,
Nymex, 6.09
$1.4029 . 5.13
$1.2852 .

, EIA
. 15.4 . , 443000 ,
. .
,
4.2
. , 7.3% ,
.
20.4 .
, 1.3% . -

20

IPE ""
$1.04 $44.75 .

,
,
, , , .. 9,5 .
.
,
.
$1
$48.00 .
Nymex WTI
$1.44 $47.42 . IPE
$1.73 $43.02 . $48.05 . -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

,
..
. .
. ,
- . ,
, "
, ".
,
. , ,
16 ,
, . , ,
. 13:30 . 14

.

WTI, Nymex 10
$47.32 .

0,02 $1.3636 , ,
1.25 $1.2569
.
IPE "" 71 $42,31
, , , , .
, ,
.
,
$47.00 .
, , , .

21

2004 43

-,
MACD ,
. ,
, ,
,
$47.00 . ,
$47 .

,
.
?
,
, ,
.
, . ,
. ,
. . . 7%
, 9%, . -
.
, .
, ,
, , . , , , .
, , ,
.
.
, 14 :

4 .
. .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

,
-
. ,
10 . .
. , , 80 % ."
,
,
, ,
" ".

,
. . ,
, .
,
, . , , , 70%
. , ,
, .
? ,
, , .
5 10
. , . ,
, , 7.3%.

2004 43

26 15%, . ,
. ,


.

, .
, $47.00
,
. ,
, ,
, - 47.00 .
, $60.00.
,
WTI .
$46.00.
$52.00 , ,
19
.

E-mail: bauer@viac.ru

Forex Magazine
www.alpari.org

. , , ,
20
15.6 . , 2003.

22

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 43

EUR/USD 15.11.2004

15 2004

,
0,25%, , .
, .
,
, , .
. , .
, , ,
.
, ,
. , ,
.
PayRolls 150 .
, .
, .
,
. .
,
, .
, ,
, .
:

1
2
3
1
2
3
1.2981
1.2991
1
1.3048
1.2897
1.3037
2
1.3052
1.3132
1.2958
1.2916
1.2880
1.2905
1.2880
1.2820
3
1.3070
1.3037
1.2905
1.2804
4
1.3173
1.2654
UP :
1.2981 /1.3037
DOWN: 1.2905 /1.2880/1.2820

EURUSD

23

Close

Close

05.11.2004

12.11.2004

1.2964

1.2964

()

+11

(%)

+0,08

Close
31.12.2003

1.2546

()

(%)

+429

+3.42

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 EUR/USD 15.11.2004

2004 43

1.2745-1.3201 (456 )
weekly Res: 1.3049 / 1.3107 / 1.3143 / 1.3102
weekly Sup: 1.2897 / 1.2839 / 1.2803 / 1.2745
weekly NZ 1.2955-1.2991 (36)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1.2872-1.3074 (202 )
intraday Res:...1.3007 / 1.3032 / 1.3048 / 1.3074
intraday Sup: ..1.2939 / 1.2914 / 1.2898 / 1.2872
day NZ 1.2965-1.2981 (16 )
NZ,
.
, .
, .
3 .
1
.
1 24 .

24

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 EUR/USD 15.11.2004

2004 43

MA

( ) :
1. UP
LB 1.2923 U3 1.3052 (+129 ).
2. DOWN
LB 1.2923 D3 1.2794 (-129 )
3. U3 1,3052 U4 1,3132 (80 )
4. D3 1,2794 D4 1,2714 (80 )
.
, U3 U2 1.3000,
D1 1.2870. U1
1,3007 D1.
,
LB D1. ,
. ,
. 16:30 .
17:45 . .
, .
U2, .
, .

25

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 EUR/USD 15.11.2004

2004 43

Time Ellipse

, .
, , 13.10.04,
, .
, , ,
1,3037. 1.3050 U3,
. , , ,
.
, ,
, ,
, ,
.
. ? ,
, ,
.

26

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 EUR/USD 15.11.2004

2004 43

, - ,
11, 21,41, 12, 14.
, 04.11.04.
,
, .
, 1.3007.
12 18.08.04 21 01.10.04 1.3070.
, 1 .

, www.viac.ru
. ,
A_Vlad, _Vlad,
.
,
e-mail: a_vlad@viac.ru

27

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

28

2004 43

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

2004 43

- ( ):
Silver-channel
!
Silver-channel 4-
AlexSilver
Silver-channel Daily
www.viac.ru
Silver-channel Weekly
CFD
Silver-channel
- " Silver-channel"
Silver-channel , .
. .

29

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

WWW.VIAC.RU - !

2004 43

:
" "
- " "
" Rann'a"
- " Silver-channel"

30

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 43

:
, , , . , , , , , FOMC
. , , , . , , .
, 440 . . ,
, , , , , ,
. . ,
, , ,
. , , , , . . . , :

.


,
.
BW
MFI ,
. . , , 440-441.00, ,
,
, 429-430.00,
425.50.
.

31

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 43

.

, .
MACD . ,

.

,
. ,
. 450.00.

!
:
E-mail: eduard@viac.ru
www.viac.ru

32

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 43

USD/JPY:

USD/JPY:
USD/JPY .
, .
" USD/JPY" 34-42 FOREX
MAGAZINE, " - "
www.VIAC.ru. - ,
.

USD/JPY:
, , .
, .
- 105.20.
(105.27) (105.30).
() 1995 2004 , ""
.
2004 - 103.40. 2000 - 101.24
- 2000
101.24.
"" 80 ,
.
. 107.00 30 ( , .. 107.00
),
- 110- (
108.75).

,
. - 1995
. 105.30-107.40 105.40-103.40 , .

33

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 USD/JPY:

2004 43

, . , :
1. 105.20 101.24. 103.40 - .
2. 105.30-107.30.
.
3. 107.00-30 110.00-111.00. 108.00-75. 107.00-30 .
.

34

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 USD/JPY:

2004 43

,
. , .. ,
.
:
107
( 30 pips)
108.75
110.20 110.8

111.50-75

114.9

2004
( ),
-
2004

2004
( )


2002

2004
2004

105.15-30

2004

105.1

1995

103.4

( )

101.25

2000,

( )

100

FOREX MAGAZINE
:
VIAC.ru
vmn@viac.ru
http://www.viac.ru

35

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 43

.

, - . , ,
. ,
, . , , , , , . , , ,
. . ,

, .
, , .

- ,

:
, -
60$ .
" ", ,
, , . ( )
65%-
- ,
, 85%.
,
, (

36

60% ) , , ,
.
, , .

, ,
,
, .
2004.
- 393.5 . $ ( 329.7
. $ ), 19% , . ( ,
), ,
. ,

, ,
-

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

. , , . , ,
. ,
,
,
. ,
.

2004 43

, , ,
,
. , , .

: , ...
G7, . , OECD 3.7%
2005 , ,
, . , ,
, , , ,
.
+4.4%
+3.3% .

,

, ,
,

. ,
,
. ,

. ,
,
" "
2005 , . ,

G7 , , ,
- , , ,

37

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 43

,
- , ,
, .

,
, , - ,
- -. ,
, ,
- . ,
G7,
,
. ,
, . , -
, " "
. ,
, , , . ,
,
,
1.35.

Forex Magazine
esearch.cibcwm.com

38

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 43

. -
,
. -.


.
" "
2003., 50
.

. , , .
:
1) - ,
,
. - , , , .
.
2) - ,
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,
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39

www.brettsteenbarger.com
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3) ,
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.
. , .
,
, .
4) - , , .
, .
,
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,
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, , ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

, , , . : , , , , ;
, ..
- .

, , ,
.
- , ,
, ,
, . , , ,
, - ?
, - ,

40

2004 43

, , , . - - , .
, , ,
.
, -
,
, . , - ,
. ,
, , , , ,
.
Forex Magazine
www.brettsteenbarger.com

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 43

RSI ,

. ,
, , , . .

. RSI
.

, ,
5 , 3
. , , ,

, "", .

7-
(RSI), .

41

www.ensignsoftware.com
5- ( 1-2-3-45 ):
1. RSI 50 1, 70.
2. 2 RSI
50.
3. 3 RSI , 80.
80, 90. , 3 RSI !
4. 4 RSI
70 ,
50. , .
-
3 , -
3 5. , 5 - , 3.
5. 5
RSI,
70,
, RSI .
RSI 70
, . : , , . RSI . .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

3- ( a-bc ):
. a 4. RSI - 40.
,
1.

2004 43

RSI.
RSI,
. , . : ,
RSI 80, 20.

b. b a 5.
3. RSI
50, 60.
. c RSI
30. 30.
: .
,
RSI 30 .
2 4 ( ),

( ).
:
,
3 5, 1. a-b-c
4
2.
5, 2
.
: RSI
1, 3 5
. RSI
2 4 . ,
5- . 5

.

Forex Magazine
www.ensignsoftware.com

,
,
, , ,

42

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 43

, . ,
.

,
. , . :
. - , , -

.
, , ,
50 - 100 ,
, , , .

.
, , ,
, ( ),
. , ,
.

? , , , ,
- 50EMA, , .
, .

43

www.screamingquote.com
, -
CCI ( ), ..
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! !
,
.., .
, . !
,
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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 43

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

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2004 43

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2004 43

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004