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Valuation Methods: An Overview
Valuation Methods: An Overview
Valuation methods
An overview
2001 M. P. Narayanan
University of Michigan
FIN
Methodologies
Comparable multiples P/E multiple Market to Book multiple Price to Revenue multiple Enterprise value to EBIT multiple Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) NPV, IRR, or EVA based Methods
2001 M. P. Narayanan
University of Michigan
FIN
If valuation is being done for an IPO or a takeover, Value of firm = Average Transaction P/E multiple EPS of firm Average Transaction multiple is the average multiple of recent transactions (IPO or takeover as the case may be)
If valuation is being done to estimate firm value Value of firm = Average P/E multiple in industry EPS of firm
This method can be used when firms in the industry are profitable (have positive earnings) firms in the industry have similar growth (more likely for mature industries) firms in the industry have similar capital structure
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P/E multiple method. Since the book value of equity is essentially the amount of equity capital invested in the firm, this method measures the market value of each dollar of equity invested. This method can be used for
companies in the manufacturing sector which have significant capital requirements. companies which are not in technical default (negative book value of equity)
2001 M. P. Narayanan
University of Michigan
FIN
the value of the business operations (as opposed to the value of the equity). In calculating enterprise value, only the operational value of the business is included. Value from investment activities, such as investment in treasury bills or bonds, or investment in stocks of other companies, is excluded. The following economic value balance sheet clarifies the notion of enterprise value.
2001 M. P. Narayanan
University of Michigan
FIN
Enterprise Value
Economic Value Balance Sheet
PV of future cash from business operations Cash Marketable securities $1500 $200 $150 $1850 Debt Equity $650 $1200 $1850
Enterprise Value
2001 M. P. Narayanan
University of Michigan
FIN
2001 M. P. Narayanan
University of Michigan
FIN
Average (Value/ EBITDA) of recent transactions (10.1+9.8+9.2+10.5+10.3)/5 = 9.98 Interest income from marketable securities 0.06 45 = $2.7 million EBITDA Interest income from marketable securities 20 2.7 = $17.3 million Estimated enterprise value of the target 9.98 17.3 = $172.65 million
FIN
investments, this method provides a better estimate of value. Appropriate for valuing companies with large debt burden: while earnings might be negative, EBIT is likely to be positive. Gives a measure of cash flows that can be used to support debt payments in leveraged companies.
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2001 M. P. Narayanan
University of Michigan
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FIN
2001 M. P. Narayanan
University of Michigan
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FIN
Free Cash Flow (FCF) of the firm Cost of debt of firm Cost of equity of firm Target debt ratio (debt to total value) of the firm.
2001 M. P. Narayanan
University of Michigan
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Income Statement
Capital items
2001 M. P. Narayanan
University of Michigan
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An Income Statement Adjustments for non-cash items included in the Income statement to calculate taxes Adjustments for Capital items, such as capital expenditures, working capital, salvage, etc. The Income Statement portion differs from the usual income statement because it ignores interest. This is because, interest, the cost of debt, is included in the cost of capital and including it in the cash flow would be double counting. Sign convention: Inflows are positive, outflows are negative. Items are entered with the appropriate sign to avoid confusion.
2001 M. P. Narayanan
University of Michigan
14
FIN
Revenue items Cost items Depreciation items Profit from asset sales
items subtracted earlier (e.g. depreciation) and subtract all noncash items added earlier (e.g. gain from salvage). There are two type of capital items
Fixed capital (also called Capital Expenditure (Cap-Ex), or Property, Plant, and Equipment (PP&E)) Working capital
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2001 M. P. Narayanan
FIN
Salvage the market value property plant and equipment Recover the working capital left in the project (assume full recovery)
2001 M. P. Narayanan
University of Michigan
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FIN
Taxab le income = Revenue - Costs - Depreciation + Profit from asset sales NOPAT = Taxab le income - Tax Operating cash flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Profit from asset sales Free cash flow = Operating cash flow - Change in working capital - Capital Expenditure + Salvage of equipment - Opportunity cost of land + Salvage of land Adjustment of noncash items: Add the noncash items you sub tracted earlier and sub tract the noncash items you added earlier.
2001 M. P. Narayanan
University of Michigan
17
FIN
Estimating Horizon
product or the life of the equipment used to manufacture it. Since a company is assumed to have infinite life:
Estimate FCF on a yearly basis for about 5 10 years. After that, calculate a Terminal Value, which is the ongoing value of the firm.
Terminal value is calculated one of two ways: Estimate a long-term growth and use the constant growth perpetuity model. Use a Enterprise value to EBIT multiple, or some such multiple
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maturity of the debt. If it is not directly available, check the bond rating of the company and find the YTM of similar rated bonds. Cost of equity
CAPM
Use Gordon-growth model and find expected re. Under the assumption that market is efficient, this is the required re.
2001 M. P. Narayanan
University of Michigan
19
FIN
Model of a Firm
FIRM
Value to Equity
EQUITY
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FIN
Value of equity
Value of equity
= Enterprise value + Value of cash and investments - Value of debt and other liabilities
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University of Michigan
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