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  • NRC Column Asia: What We See and What We Are Getting

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    Joost Ramaer
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    We tend to see China as a modern miracle of growth. We forget that we looked at Japan in the same way more than twenty years ago. Soon after, a huge debt bubble burst and Japan slid into a state of stagnatory deflation it still has to climb out of. Even in Asia there is nothing new under the sun, contends Rupert Rucker, an Asia specialist with asset manager Schroders. "Rather, history seems to repeat itself." China used to be the world's leading economy for centuries – from 1500 till 1820, to be precise. It seems now to be merely taking back its old mantle, as Europe slides from 35 percent of total world GDP in 1870 to a mere 13 percent in 2050. There is nothing miraculous about China's recent success, says Rucker. Much of it is due to a simple matter of scale: with 1,3 billion people, China is the biggest country in the world. However, it faces a huge demographic problem: just 16.5 percent of its population is at or under 14 years old, half the share in Japan and South Korea. What we see in Asia is hardly what we are getting, contends Rucker. We tend to see Japan as a failing economy, but measured in GDP per capita Japan is a much stronger performer than the USA. And the strong growth in Asia is belied by the poor performance of most Asian stock exchanges. European investors wanting to ride the Asian boom are much better off by putting their money in the stocks of the many well-run multinational corporations from their own continent, who on average earn two-thirds of their revenues outside Europe – to a large extent in Asia.

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    We tend to see China as a modern miracle of growth. We forget that we looked at Japan in the same way more than twenty years ago. Soon after, a huge debt bubble burst and Japan slid into a state of stagnatory deflation it still has to climb out of. Even in Asia there is nothing new under the sun, contends Rupert Rucker, an Asia specialist with asset manager Schroders. "Rather, history seems to repeat itself." China used to be the world's leading economy for centuries – from 1500 till 1820, to be precise. It seems now to be merely taking back its old mantle, as Europe slides from 35 percent of total world GDP in 1870 to a mere 13 percent in 2050. There is nothing miraculous about China's recent success, says Rucker. Much of it is due to a simple matter of scale: with 1,3 billion people, China is the biggest country in the world. However, it faces a huge demographic problem: just 16.5 percent of its population is at or under 14 years old, half the share in Japan and South Korea. What we see in Asia is hardly what we are getting, contends Rucker. We tend to see Japan as a failing economy, but measured in GDP per capita Japan is a much stronger performer than the USA. And the strong growth in Asia is belied by the poor performance of most Asian stock exchanges. European investors wanting to ride the Asian boom are much better off by putting their money in the stocks of the many well-run multinational corporations from their own continent, who on average earn two-thirds of their revenues outside Europe – to a large extent in Asia.

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    11 views1 page

    NRC Column Asia: What We See and What We Are Getting

    Uploaded by

    Joost Ramaer
    We tend to see China as a modern miracle of growth. We forget that we looked at Japan in the same way more than twenty years ago. Soon after, a huge debt bubble burst and Japan slid into a state of stagnatory deflation it still has to climb out of. Even in Asia there is nothing new under the sun, contends Rupert Rucker, an Asia specialist with asset manager Schroders. "Rather, history seems to repeat itself." China used to be the world's leading economy for centuries – from 1500 till 1820, to be precise. It seems now to be merely taking back its old mantle, as Europe slides from 35 percent of total world GDP in 1870 to a mere 13 percent in 2050. There is nothing miraculous about China's recent success, says Rucker. Much of it is due to a simple matter of scale: with 1,3 billion people, China is the biggest country in the world. However, it faces a huge demographic problem: just 16.5 percent of its population is at or under 14 years old, half the share in Japan and South Korea. What we see in Asia is hardly what we are getting, contends Rucker. We tend to see Japan as a failing economy, but measured in GDP per capita Japan is a much stronger performer than the USA. And the strong growth in Asia is belied by the poor performance of most Asian stock exchanges. European investors wanting to ride the Asian boom are much better off by putting their money in the stocks of the many well-run multinational corporations from their own continent, who on average earn two-thirds of their revenues outside Europe – to a large extent in Asia.

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    of 1

    B ELEGGEN

    Azi: wat we zien en wat we krijgen


    Door J oos tR a ma e r

    oms is het zinvol ver in de geschiedenis terug te gaan om actuele ontwikkelingen beter te begrijpen. Wij zijn geneigd de explosieve economische groei van China te zien als een eigentijds mirakel. We vergeten dan dat we die rol nog maar twintig jaar geleden toebedeelden aan Japan. Toyota, Sony, Toshiba en Panasonic: ze leken destijds onstuitbaar op weg de wereld te veroveren. Toen knapte in Japan een schuldenzeepbel. De Japanse economie gleed af in een hardnekkige deflatie, die nog altijd niet is beteugeld. China en de andere Aziatische landen blijven de groeimotoren van de wereldeconomie. Maar we moeten ze wel in perspectief blijven zien, zo bleek deze week tijdens een gezamenlijke presentatie in Amsterdam door Azi-specialisten van de vermogensbeheerders Fidelity, Schroders en Deutsche Bank. Van een uniek Aziatisch wonder is geen sprake, betoogde Rupert Rucker van Schroders. ,,Het lijkt er meer op dat de geschiedenis zich herhaalt. China was al in 1500 de grootste economie op aarde, goed voor een kwart van het bruto binnenlands product (bbp) van de wereld. Dat bleef zo tot 1820, toen China bijna 35 procent van de wereldproductie voor zijn rekening nam. Vijftig jaar later was daar nog maar de helft van over, en was het gendustrialiseerde Europa nummer n geworden met eveneens bijna 35 procent. In 2050 zal daar naar verwachting nog maar 13 procent van over zijn, en is China weer leidend, terug op het niveau van 1500. Dat is niet alleen toe te schrijven

    aan het populaire clich van een dynamisch en beleidsmatig daadkrachtig China versus een decadent en stagnerend Europa, benadrukt Rucker. Het is voor een groot deel domweg een kwestie van schaal: met een bevolking van 1,3 miljard mensen is China nu eenmaal de grootste economie van de wereld. En die economie kampt met een ernstig vergrijzingsprobleem. Slechts 16,5 procent van de Chinezen is tussen de nul en veertien jaar oud; in Japan is dat 30 procent, in Zuid-Korea zelfs 34 procent. Voor de groep van 65 en ouder is het beeld omgekeerd: 9,1 procent van de Chinezen behoort tot die categorie, tegen 5,7 procent van de Japanners en 3,8 procent van de Koreanen. Alle drie de Azi-specialisten waren het erover eens dat de leeftijdsopbouw van de Chinese bevolking de grootste rem is op verdere groei. Dan nog is wat je ziet niet altijd wat je krijgt. Ondanks die deflatie blijft Japan een van de meest welvarende, sophisticated samenlevingen op aarde. Als je kijkt naar de rijkdom per hoofd van de bevolking, zegt Rucker, heeft Japan het de afgelopen twintig jaar beter gedaan dan de VS. En ondanks die explosieve groei blijven de beurzen van Azi die van Tokio en Hong Kong uitgezonderd een mijnenveld voor de particuliere belegger: ondoorzichtig, dunne handel, wilde koersschommelingen. Toch in Azi beleggen? Koop dan aandelen van solide Europese multinationals. Rucker: Die halen gemiddeld tweederde van hun omzet buiten Europa. J ournalist J oost R amaer schrijft elke z aterdag over beleggingsz aken.

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