Attachment 1 Lesson 3

FKB 20302

The schematic diagram below describes a production method used in the manufacture of aluminium cans. fill C F A
cup

B wash

D G E print depalletize H fill

It is desired to estimate the probability that the process will function for one day without failing. Given that

P(A) = 0.995, P(B) = 0.99, P(C) = P(D) = P(E) = 0.95, P(F) = 0.90, P(G) = 0.90 and P(H) = 0.98.

Assume that the components function independently. Calculate the probability that the process functions successfully for one day.

Attachment 1 Lesson 3
FKB 20302

SOLUTION :

fill C F A cup B wash E print D G depalletize H fill

Subsystem 1

Subsystem 2

Subsystem 3

P subsystem1 functions P A B P AP B by the assum ption of independen ce 0.995 0.99 0.9851

P subsystem 2 functions P C D E where P C D P C P D P C D P C P D P C P D by the assum ption of independen ce 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.9975 Thus , P C D E P C D P E P C D E P C D P E P C D P E independen ce 0.9975 0.95 0.9975 0.95 0.9999875

Attachment 1 Lesson 3
FKB 20302

P subsystem 3 functions P G H F where P G H P G P H by the assum ption of independen ce 0.90 0.98 0.882 Thus , P G H F P G H P F P G H F P G H P F P G H P F independen ce 0.882 0.90 0.882 0.90 1.782 0.7938 0.9882

P All system s function P Subsystem1 functions Subsystem 2 funtions Subsystem 3 functions 0.98510.9999875 0.9882 0.9735