1

2
3
4
5
Quartely Seasonal Index

Quarter
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
325
350
404
295
340
360
412
302
360
380
421
328
270
385
425
250
285
400
430
260
316
375
418.4
287
0.905185 1.074191 1.19851 0.82211401

The Sales volume of Lingnan Fruit jucie in bottles

Units

Year

349.1

450

Year 1

400

Year 2
Year 3

350

Year 4

300

Year 5

250
200
1

(i)
Year

Quarter

1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Actual Sales Seasonall

y
Adjusted
Value
325 359.0427
350 325.8267
404 337.0851
295 358.831
340 375.6139
360 335.136
412
343.76
302 367.3456
360 397.7089
380 353.7547
421 351.2694
328 398.9714
270 298.2816
385 358.4093
425 354.6068
250 304.0941
285 314.8528
400 372.3733
430 358.7787
260 316.2578

Seasonally
Adjusted
Forecast

345.1963712
349.3391718
351.6665051
353.3352432
355.4639017
360.9876359
365.6423026
367.5196329
375.4260789
350.5692751
351.7329417
352.5673108
328.8479728
332.9907734
336.4817734
337.5247347

Actual
Forecast

312.4664947
375.2569161
421.4759832
290.4818527
321.7605069
387.7695888
438.2261226
302.1430382
339.8299654
376.5782817
421.5556082
289.8505247
297.6681736
357.6956174
403.2769235
277.4838123
MAD

Quarter

Absolute Error Quarterly

27.53350533
15.25691614
9.47598324
11.51814725
38.23949314
7.769588836
17.22612258
25.8569618
69.8299654
8.421718274
3.444391802
39.85052474
12.66817359
42.30438261
26.72307649
17.48381225
23.35017272

Seasonal
Factor
0.905185
1.074191
1.19851
0.822114
0.905185
1.074191
1.19851
0.822114
0.905185
1.074191
1.19851
0.822114
0.905185
1.074191
1.19851
0.822114
0.905185
1.074191
1.19851
0.822114

Year

Quarter

1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Actual Sales Seasonall

y
Adjusted
325 359.0427
350 325.8267
404 337.0851
295 358.831
340 375.6139
360 335.136
412
343.76
302 367.3456
360 397.7089
380 353.7547
421 351.2694
328 398.9714
270 298.2816
385 358.4093
425 354.6068
250 304.0941
285 314.8528
400 372.3733
430 358.7787
260 316.2578

Seasonally
Forecast
300
329.5213608
327.6740137
332.3795499
345.6052802
360.6096021
347.8728011
345.8164196
356.5810321
377.1449464
365.4498066
358.359583
378.6655058
338.4735757
348.4414545
351.524145
327.8091108
321.3309795
346.8521564
352.8154185

Actual
Forecast
271.5554282
353.9688063
392.7207314
273.2538837
312.8366329
387.3635084
416.9291892
284.3005226
322.7717163
405.1256228
437.9954141
294.6124329
342.7622453
363.585193
417.6107263
288.9929236
296.7278116
345.1707743
415.7059359
290.0544976
MAD

Absolute Error Quarterly

Seasonal
Factor
53.44457176 0.905185 =
3.968806316 1.074191 Seasonally adjusted
11.27926858 1.19851
21.74611626 0.822114
27.16336714 0.905185
27.36350842 1.074191
4.929189232 1.19851
17.6994774 0.822114
37.22828373 0.905185
25.12562279 1.074191
16.9954141 1.19851
33.3875671 0.822114
72.76224529 0.905185
21.41480699 1.074191
7.389273659 1.19851
38.99292359 0.822114
11.72781159 0.905185
54.82922572 1.074191
14.29406405 1.19851
30.05449763 0.822114
26.58980207

300
0.5