D BO I.D bo nhu cu 1.

khi nim D bo nhu cu l nh gi s lng thu bao kt ni n mi im ca mng li, v xu hng pht trin trong tng lai. 2. Cc nhn t sau s c nh hng n d bo nhu cu: - Cc nhn t kinh t: tc pht trin kinh t, tiu th c nhn, khai thc v sn xut cc sn phm cng nghip. - Cc nhn t x hi: dn s, s h gia nh, s dn lm vic. - Gi cc: gi thit b, cc c bn, cc kt ni, cc ph tri. - Chin lc marketing: chin lc v sn phm v qung co. Cc s liu trn phi c thu thp d bo nhu cu v phn b. Thc hin mt d bo n gin ch bng vic nhn vo xu hng tng lai gn l cch tip cn th ng, ko kh thi. Vic lp k hoch nn thc hin bng pp ch ng. D bo nhu cu thc t, phng php thch hp nht nn c la chn trong mt vi phng php ty theo iu kin ca mi quc gia v mi vng, v ty theo s ph cp ca vin thng. 3.D bo nhu cu D bo l khu quan trng khng th thiu c trong cng vic ra quyt nh. N d bo cc xu hng tng lai v tr thnh iu cn bn lp k hoch kinh doanh c kinh t v c hiu qu. - Lnh vc dch v Vin thng c nh hng ln n cuc sng con ngi v cc hot ng kinh t v n l mt ngnh c quy m ln vi cc thit b i hi lin tc u t rt nhiu. Bi vy, iu c bit quan trng vi ngnh ny m rng kinh doanh n nh v u t thit b c hiu qu phi da vo d bo nhu cu di hn. Trong phn ny s trnh by cc bc v phng php d bo nhu cu. - DB nhu cu ko ch bao gm vic db m l c vic thu nhp v x l s liu ngoi ra vic iu chnh cc db cng l 1 trong s cc ni dung phi c thc hin. (a) Thu thp v x l s liu Chui s liu v nhu cu in thoi (yu t ni sinh) v thng k v dn s, s h gia nh, cc ch s kinh t... (yu t ngoi sinh) c thu thp v x l theo yu cu. (b) iu chnh nhu cu Nhng khc bit gia gi tr d bo v gi tr thc phi c phn tch v gi tr d bo s c iu chnh theo kt qu ca s phn tch ny. (c) D bo nhu cu Nhu cu tng lai c d bo hoc c tnh ton. y l cng vic d bo chnh v c gi l d bo theo ngha hp. Ngoi cc phng php truyn thng, cc s liu nhn c t hai bc kia phi tn dng xc nh v nh gi cc gi tr d bo.

4.Tng trng nhu cu Mng in thoi thng phn chia thnh 3 pha nh trong hnh 5.2 sau y: - Pha bt u: tc tng trng chm. - Pha tng trng nhanh: tc tng trng rt nhanh hay gi l giai on tng tc. - Pha bo ha: tc tng trng gim. mi pha, cc iu kin v kinh t v x hi l khc nhau. Khi chn la mt phng php d bo, iu quan trng phn tch la chn l phi xc nh c mng hin ti ang nm pha no. (1) Pha bt u Pha bt u lin quan n giai on tng trng chm ca mng, vi mt in thoi mc thp. Trong pha ny, nhu cu in thoi ch yu l dnh cho nhu cu sn xut kinh doanh. Nhu cu ny ph thuc vo cc ngnh cng nghip v cc ngnh cng cng. Bi vy, mt mng c bn c lp t cng vi s pht trin cng nghip. Khng c mng c bn ny pht trin cng nghip s b cn tr.Nhu cu c nhn b hn ch trong pha ny. V vy, d bo nhu cu in thoi cho sn xut kinh doanh phi da vo phn tch s pht trin kinh t ca a phng v quc gia. (2) Pha tng trng nhanh pha ny, kinh t pht trin. Trong lnh vc cng nghip, cn thit phi ci tin mng vin thng p ng dch v cht lng cao hn. iu ny ph hp khi mc sng ngi dn tng ln v nhu cu hng ha v in thoi ni chung l tng ln. Trong giai on tng trng nhanh ny, nhu cu ca dn c tr nn ln hn cung. Thm ch khi nhu cu hin ti c p ng, vn ny sinh nhiu nhu cu hn na. Tnh trng ny tip tc din ra cho n khi mng tng trng n mt qui m hp l. Pha ny tng xng vi giai on thit lp mng. Cng vic d bo trong giai on ny

l rt quan trng v mt lot nhng sai st trong d bo c th dn n nhng sai xt trong vic lp k hoch v chi ph. (3) Pha bo ha pha ny, mt in thoi dn c t ti 80% hoc hn th v c in thoi dn c v sn xut kinh doanh u pht trin tng ng. Sau pha ny, nhu cu s thay i v c cu l nhu cu v cc dch v mi, v doanh thu cng s thay i theo c cu nhu cu . 5.Cc bc xc nh nhu cu Cc bc d bo nhu cu c th hin nh sau: Bc 1 : Xc nh cc mc tiu d bo Bc u tin ca cng vic d bo l phi xc nh r cc mc tiu d bo. Cc mc tiu d bo bao gm nhu cu ca dn c v nhu cu cho sn xut kinh doanh. Vng mc tiu d bo l ton b vng trong nc hoc vng tng i,... Giai on d bo c th l 5 nm, 10 nm hoc 15 nm. Bc 2: X l cc iu kin ban u D bo theo chui thi gian c th c thc hin theo cch nh sau mi lin quan gia nhu cu v cc yu t quyt nh nhu cu qu kh v c bn l khng thay i so vi tng lai. Bi vy, cc yu t ni sinh nh h thng cc v c cu cc v cc yu t ngoi sinh nh cc k hoch pht trin vng phi c xem xt. Bc 3 : Cc s liu cn thu thp Trong bc ny phi xc nh c yu t no nh hng n cc mc tiu d bo v nhng s liu no nn thu thp. Tip theo, cc s liu thu thp c phi c phn loi sao cho vic phn tch chng c d dng. Cc s liu lin quan n d bo nhu cu in thoi nh sau: - Nhu cu in thoi, mt in thoi. - Dn s, s h gia nh. - S cc c quan. - T l tng thu nhp. - Tc tng trng kinh t. - Cc k hoch pht trin th. Cc s liu trn c sp xp theo thi gian, theo cc nhn t (nh nhn t ngoi sinh v ni sinh) v theo cc vng tng i. Bc 4: Tip cn v phn tch xu hng nhu cu Xu hng nhu cu cn c phn tch theo quan im nh sau: - Cc gi tr qu kh. - C cu th trng in thoi. - Ngun nhu cu. - Mt in thoi. - Cc c im ca vng nghin cu. - So snh vi cc vng khc v cc quc gia khc. Bc 5: Nghin cu cc k thut d bo v tnh ton gi tr d bo. Cc phng php d bo c phn loi theo 3 phng php sau: - Phng php chui thi gian. - Phng php m hnh ha. - Cc phng php khc. Mt phng php d bo c xc nh thng qua cc s liu thu thp. Tuy nhin, cho

gi tr d bo m bo chnh xc caohn, iu quan trng l nn chn phng php kh thi nht v chn cc gi tr ti u. Bc 6: Xc nh cc gi tr d bo T vic phn tch kt qu nhn c bc 2 v bc 4, cc gi tr ti u s c quyt nh. 6.Cc phng php xc nh nhu cu a.Phng php chui thi gian (1) Khi qut i vi phng php chui thi gian, xu hng trong qu kh s c p dng d bo cho tng lai.Phng php ny thng c s dng cho d bo ngn hn. Hn ch ca phng php ny l cc bin v chnh sch nh cc v mc dch v khng c tnh n v nh vy th n khng c tnh thuyt phc. Nhng phng php ny d thc hin nht v n gin v ngoi cc s liu cn c nh nhu cu v mt in thoi ra th khng i hi thm s liu no khc. Chnh v l do m phng php ny c s dng rng ri trong d bo dn s, d bo kinh t,... (2) iu chnh s liu bin thin Thng thng, s liu chui thi gian bao gm 4 dng sau: bin thin xu th, bin thin chu k, bin thin theo ma, bin thin bt thng. Bi vy cn phi chuyn cc bi n thin khc nhau v dng bin thin d liu xu th bng phng php bnh qun thng, phng php nhn cng. Gi s rng trong chui thi gian chu k theo thng ca n nm, i thng l x ij, Mi l gi tr trung bnh, M0 l bnh qun gi tr trung bnh. Mi=xij/n Mo=xi/12 (5.1) Ch s ma (SI) c tnh nh sau: SI=Mi/M0*100 (5.2) chuyn dng d liu ma, s dng ch s ma nh m hnh (5.2) v nhn vi 100. (3) Cc biu thc s dng cho d bo Biu thc thch hp c la chn phi da trn nn tng ca xu hng nhu cu trong qu kh. thi im ny, cc c im ca mi biu thc phi c xem xt y . l, biu thc v giai on d bo phi c xc nh xem nhu cu s thay i nh th no. i vi d bo bng phn tch chui thi gian th ch thi gian l yu t gi i thch bin nhu cu. Cc yu t khc nh nhng thay i c cu khng c gii thch. Nhng phi ch rng, phng php ny ch ng trong trng hp mi lin quan gia cc yu t quyt nh nhu cu hin ti v nhu cu qu kh s khng thay i c bn trong tng lai. Nu bt k s thay i c cu no c xem l s nh hng ln n nhu cu th nguyn nhn v mc nh hng ca n phi c phn tch k lng v phng php d bo phi c iu chnh. (4) Xc nh hng s ca m hnh d bo Vi mi phng php c xc nh da vo xu th nhu cu trong qu kh th hng s ca mi mt phng trnh phi c tnh ton. Phng php ph bin nht l phng php bnh phng nh nht. (a) Phng php bnh phng nh nht Phng php ny c ngha l tm ra c mt phng trnh sao cho tng din tch khc bit gia gi tr thc t v gi tr d bo nh nht.

(b) Xc nh gi tr ti hn (mc bo ha) Gi tr ti hn K trong hm logistic v hm m iu ch nh l gi tr da vo s liu qu kh thi im d bo. Gi tr K khng nht thit phi l hng s. Khi nn kinh t pht trin, gi tr K tr nn ln hn. Sai s ln s khng xut hin thm ch nu K c coi nh l mt hng s cho n khi ng cu tin gn n KGi tr K l khc nhau khng ch vi cc quc gia v cc vng m cn khc nhau ty theo trnh kinh t v cc iu kin ca dn c. N thng c xc nh da trn cc yu t kinh t v cc yu t chnh tr, tham kho s liu ca cc quc gia khc v s liu ca cc khu vc ln cn. b.Phng php hi quy (c bit thm) (1) Khi qut Trong m hnh hi quy, mi quan h ca nguyn nhn v kt qu gia nhu cu v cc yu t quyt nh n c m hnh ha d bo. u tin, cc yu t tm c tm kim bao gm mi lin quan ph thuc ln nhau hoc mi lin quan gia nguyn nhn v kt qu trong qu kh. Nhn chung, cc yu t kinh t v cc yu t x hi u lin quan n nhu cu. Trong nhng nhn t ny, mt vi nhn t l m hnh c nh hng ln n nhu cu v gi tr tng lai ca n c th l d bo. Vi nhng m hnh ny nhu c u l d bo. (2) Xc nh cng thc hi quy (a) S tng quan Trc khi xc nh cng thc truy hi, cn phi tm mt nhn t an xen vi nhu cu. Biu hin cng ca s lin h l khi nim ca s tng quan. (3) Cc phng php khc II.D bo lu lng 1.Khi nim D bo lu lng l nh gi tng s lng xy ra ti mi im ca mng li. Cc nhn t nh hng n d bo lu lng: kt qu d bo lu lng, cc dao ng c bn, dch v. 2.Cc bc xc nh lu lng Lu lng thng c d bo theo cc bc sau y: Bc 1 : Xc nh mc ch v i tng d bo. Xc nh mc tiu ca d bo, lu lng v nm c d bo. Bc 2: Thu thp s liu v xc nh gi thit Xc nh cc gi thit ca d bo (v d: h thng gi v cc d n pht trin a phng c th c). La chn v phn tch s liu biu th xu hng ca nhu cu lu lng. Bc 3 : Nghin cu xu hng lu lng Ghi chp v phn tch cc c tnh lu lng. Gm c: xu hng chui thi gian ca lu lng, phn tch xu hng lu lng ni ht v ng di trong nc, cc nhn t chnh nh hng n lu lng (v d: cu thu bao), mi lin h gia s pht trin vng v lu lng, s phn b lu lng theo thi gian. Bc 4: La chn phng php d bo. Phng php thch hp nht c la chn qua vic xem xt cc c tnh ca lu lng v cc nhn t dao ng. Bc 5: Tnh ton lu lng c bn Tnh ton lu lng trung bnh hng nm cho nm tham kho. Bc 6: D bo lu lng D bo thc hin bng cch s dng phng php chui thi gian, hoc nhn t l tng lu lng vi lu lng c bn. Bc 7 : nh gi / xc nh d bo

Xem xt cc c tnh ca cc nhn t dao ng s dng trong d bo, d bo so snh xu hng lu lng ton cu v s liu lu lng ca tng nc. Bc 8: Tnh ton lu lng tham kho Lu lng tham kho c tnh theo gi thit v s dao ng trong d bo (lu lng trung bnh hng nm). Bc 9: Bin son cc bo co Cc bo co m chng ta a ra cc s liu c s cho d bo lu lng (lu lng tham kho v s thu bao), d bo, cc gi thit cho d bo, v c s nh gi / xc nh d bo c son tho. Bc 10: Hon thin d bo Bng vic tip tc so snh d bo vi cc s liu thc t, ci tin phng php d bo t c chnh xc cao hn. 3.Cc phng php xc nh d bo lu lng a.Khi s liu lu lng sn c Khi mt vi s liu lu lng c sn, s dng cc phng php sau y: Phng php chui thi gian. Phng php hi quy. D bo ton cu xem xt cc iu kin ca tng a phng. D bo n gin t l tng lu lng im - im. (1) Phng php chui thi gian Phng php ny xc nh xu hng chui thi gian da trn s liu qu kh, v d bo tng lai bng cch m rng xu hng. (2) Phng php hi quy Phng php ny xc nh cc nhn t to ra cu lu lng, v m t s dao ng lu lng s thay i ca cc nhn t ny. Hnh 6.2. D bo tng quan s dng gia lu lng v s thu bao Phng php ny thu c ng xu hng theo tng quan gia lu lng v s thu bin i. S dng ng xu hng ny, lu lng c d bo bng cch c tnh s th bao chuyn i.

(3) D bo ton b c xem xt n cc iu kin ton cc M hnh d bo ton b, c p dng trong khu vc rng ln, c th s dng tng i nhiu s liu thng k hn nh ch s kinh t. Tuy nhin, lu lng d bo cho mi khu vc tng i l khng d, bi v s liu thng k cho cc khu vc nh nh vy thng c hn. V vy, t l tng lu lng ca khu vc c tnh ton t t l tng lu lng ton b c xem xt n iu kin pht trin cc b ca vng. (4) D bo n gin t l tng lu lng im - im d bo lu lng gia cc khu vc, chng ta cn s liu pht trin d n v xu hng nhu

cu cho cc khu vc. V lu lng ph in thoi ng di chuyn tip my tnh trn ton quc nn n chu tc ng ca nhiu xu hng kinh t - x hi. Cc xu hng ny khng o c vi mt n v nh nh mt khu vc. Cng cn xt nhng nh hng ca iu kin c nhng vng khi u v kt thc lu lng. b.Khi s liu lu lng khng c sn (1) D bo tng lu lng khi u Khi mt in thoi thp, nhiu ngi s dng mt s lng in thoi c hn. V vy tng lu lng khi u cho mi in thoi l tng i ln. Nhng khi mt in thoi tng, s thu bao vi t l s dng thp cng tng ln. Bng cch ny, tng lu lng khi u cho mi in thoi gim. (2) D bo u ra lu lng thoi ng di D bo u ra lu lng thoi ng di s dng th a ra hnh 6.4. th ny th hin mi quan h gia s lng dn c v t l lu lng ng di. N d trn nhng quan im sau y: T l u ra lu lng thoi ng di trong tng i lu lng khi u ph thuc vo hot ng kinh t x hi cc th. Nu th nh v hot ng kinh t - x hi ph thuc ln vo cc vng ngo i , t l lu lng thoi ng di s cao. V vy, di cc iu kin kinh t x hi ging nhau, th c dn c t hn s c t l lu lng in thoi ng di cao hn. Da vo t l lu lng thoi ng di thu c hnh 6.4, c th d bo u ra lu lng thoi ng di.