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A Malaysian Economy Update
A Malaysian Economy Update
MALAYSIA
ECONOMIC UPDATE
CIMB Analyst
The Malaysian economy is expected to continue to remain on a solid and steady growth trajectory in 2013. Following the economic restructuring, domestic demand has increasingly been the driver of growth.
Bank Negara Malaysia Governor's statement, Annual Report 2012
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
ECONOMIC UPDATE
March 20, 2013
1. Malaysia's economic outlook for 2013 GDP growth momentum remains intact at 5-6% for 2013
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) remains upbeat about the country's growth momentum, pegging 2013's GDP growth estimate at 5-6% (5.6% in 2012), a notch higher than the 4.5-5.5% projected by the Treasury during the 2013 Budget in Sep 2012. This is in line with our estimate of 5.5% but higher than consensuss 5%. Robust domestic demand has been clearly demonstrated since 2012. With the support of income and consumption-boosting measures and initiatives, we anticipate a continued shift towards internal growth rebalancing.
Figure 2: Real GDP is expected to strengthen to 5-6% this year
% 15
Title: Source:
10
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5 4 0 2 0 -2 -10 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013E* -4 -6 Malaysia's real GDP growth Severe recession = -7.4% Global GDP growth 20-year average growth=5.5% Mild recession = -1.5% Developing Asia's GDP growth Domestic demand Net trade 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E (BNM) 2013E (CIMB)
-5
We concur with BNM's cautious optimism about global economic recovery as downside risks to a sustained recovery remain considerable despite some broad improvement in mature economies. There is no doubt that the resolute actions by major central banks have reduced tail risks in global financial markets but ongoing fiscal issues, high unemployment and tight lending standards still litter the recovery path. Top on the list of external concerns is the potential re-emergence of instability in the euro area. Other risks include the influx of capital flows to emerging markets, causing asset price volatility, and higher inflationary pressures induced by global commodity and food prices. In Asia, growth continues to be supported by domestic demand and a pick-up in intra-regional trade, which bode well for Malaysia's exports.
ECONOMIC UPDATE
March 20, 2013
strong double-digit rate of 15.6% this year. This will be largely underpinned by increased capital spending in services (retail trade and restaurants, telecommunication and aviation, business services), oil and gas, manufacturing (mainly in construction-related clusters, petrochemical, electronics and electrical products, food, beverages and motor vehicles) as well as the ETP and 10MP projects. Although the MRT and LRT are public-driven projects, they will have positive spin-off effects on private investment activity on the back of the builders and contractors participating in these projects. Capital spending by public enterprises is expected to remain large, mainly in the energy, transportation and communication sub-sectors. On the supply side, all sectors are expected to continue to grow, albeit slower, powered by services (5.5% vs. 6.4% in 2012), mainly consumption-related sub-sectors (such as retail trade, accommodation and restaurants), and aided by a revival in trade-related activity. Tourist arrivals rose 1.3% to 25m persons in 2012 (24.7m in 2011) and will rise to 26m persons in 2013. The ASEAN market contributed the highest number of tourists at 75.1% of the total following various competitive offers by low-cost carriers, such as AirAsia, Mandala Airlines, SEAir and Tiger Airways, besides the introduction of new tourism products. Tourism revenue generated increased 3.9% to RM60.6bn or 6.5% of GDP in 2012 (RM58.3bn or 6.6% of GDP in 2011). Looking ahead, we expect the upcoming Visit Malaysia Year 2014 to provide a boost to the tourism industry. The improved manufacturing growth (4.9% vs. 4.8% in 2012) will be firmly driven by the construction-related building materials manufacturing industries in tandem with the arrival of a construction boom. A gradual revival in the exports of electronics and electrical products will also help to sustain the manufacturing sector. The construction sector is expected to record another year of strong growth (15.9% vs. 18.5% in 2012), lifted by the ongoing construction of MRT, LRT extensions, the Second Penang Bridge and oil and gas projects, such as the Janamanjung power plant and the Kebabangan gas field.
Figure 4: Real GDP by demand-side component
2011 % yoy Real GDP Private consumption Public consumption Private investment Public investment Exports Imports 5.1 7.1 16.1 12.2 -0.3 4.2 6.2 2012 % yoy 5.6 7.7 5.0 22.0 17.1 0.1 4.5 ------- 2013E ------- ------- 2013E ------- ------ 2013E ----- BNM % yoy 5.0-6.0 7.1 3.6 15.6 7.5 1.8 3.9 CIMB % yoy 5.5 6.5 -1.0 15.1 5.4 3.0 5.8 BNM 5.0-6.0 3.6 0.5 2.4 0.8 1.7 3.4 CIMB 5.5 3.3 -0.1 2.3 0.6 2.8 5.0 BNM 100.0 51.5 12.9 17.0 11.4 92.0 85.3 CIMB 100.0 51.3 12.4 16.9 11.2 93.0 86.9 % pt contribution % of GDP
ECONOMIC UPDATE
March 20, 2013
Title: Source:
22.4 22.8 22.5
23.2
25
11.4 Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep 20 10.3 15 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.1
4 2 0 10 -2 -4 5
10.9
12.1
13.0
12.4
11.6
12.5
13.4
15.5
17.0
Total investments (% pt contr.) (RHS) Pub. investments (% pt contr.) (RHS) Priv. investment growth
Priv. investments (% pt contr.) (RHS) Total investment growth Pub. investment growth
Private investment
Public investmnt
Total investment
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
% of GDP 21 BNM RM42.7bn (4.2% of GDP) CIMB RM58.6bn (5.8% of GDP) 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 2013E (BNM)
% of GDP (RHS)
ECONOMIC UPDATE
March 20, 2013
12
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
-4
-8
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013E (BNM)*
Headline inflation
Core inflation
SOURCES: BNM
ECONOMIC UPDATE
March 20, 2013
15
12
0 Jan-98 May-99 Sep-00 Jan-02 May-03 Sep-04 Jan-06 May-07 Sep-08 Jan-10 May-11 Sep-12
SRR ratio
3. Continued two-way flows of capital FDI and portfolio flows remain solid
Malaysia remains attractive to private capital inflows, buoyed by the high global liquidity conditions and favourable domestic pull factors. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have maintained their momentum since rebounding from a slump of RM5.1bn (US$1.5bn) in 2009. Between 2010 and 2012, FDI inflows amounted to RM95bn (US$30.5bn) or RM31.7bn (US$10.2bn) a year, aided by a recovery in global FDI, improved domestic economic conditions and investment prospects as well as predictable investment policies. Various global benchmarks and surveys show that Malaysia has fared reasonably well in terms of 1) AT Kearneys FDI confidence (10th in 2012 vs. 21st in 2010), the World Banks ease of doing business (12th in 2013 vs. 18th in 2012) and the IMD Worlds competitiveness ranking (14th in 2012 vs. 16th in 2011). While progress is being made with reforms to boost Malaysia's standing among investors, we believe a more lasting impact will require accelerated market and economic reforms, including improving broad-based productivity and enhancing its investment climate. In 2012, FDI inflows were mainly to manufacturing (58.2% of total), oil and gas (12.8%), non-financial services (19.1%), financial services (8.9%) and others, mainly agriculture and construction (0.9%). We expect gross FDI inflows to rise RM30bn-40bn (US$9.8bn-13bn) in 2013-14 as there are positive drivers to counteract the negatives: stable economic fundamentals, ETP projects and Malaysias regional integration via bilateral FTAs and the ASEAN Economic Community. In 2011-12, Malaysia also intensified its investment liberalisation with respect to foreign equity ownership in the service sector in 15 out of the 18 service subsectors, covering professional services, wholesale and retail services, education, telecommunications, healthcare, courier services and incineration services. Three more subsectors, namely architectural, engineering and quantity surveyor services, will be liberalised this year.
ECONOMIC UPDATE
March 20, 2013
Figure 13: More than half of gross FDIs went into manufacturing in 2012
Gross FDI by sector in 2012 Title: (RM102.9bn)
% of GDP 5
50
Source: Construction
40 4 RM0.6bn (0.6%)
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30 3 Manufacturing RM59.9bn (58.2%) Services RM28.8bn (28.0%) Information & communication RM4.2bn (4.1%) Financial & insurance RM9.1bn (8.9%) Other services RM5.2bn (5.0%)
20
10
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E (CIMB) 2014F (CIMB)
% of GDP (RHS)
Numbers in parentheses refer to % share of total gross FDI. SOURCES: BNM, CIMB RESEARCH
It is noteworthy that direct investment abroad (DIA) by Malaysian companies also remained robust, accelerating from RM6.8bn per year in 2000-05 to RM39.8bn per year in 2006-2012, as companies continued to explore business opportunities abroad. We expect this positive trend to continue, in tandem with rising investment prospects and wider market accessibility. These investments were largely channelled into the services (led by domestic financial institutions, utilities and telecommunication equipment), oil and gas (primarily in the exploration and production business and downstream processing activities) and manufacturing sectors.
Figure 14: Direct investment abroad by Malaysian companies rose for the fourth year
RM bn
Figure 15: About 60% of Malaysian overseas investment channelled into services sector in 2012
Construction RM1.1bn (1.3%)
60
Source:
Information & communication (2.2%)
50
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep RM2.0bn
40
30
20
10
% of GDP (RHS)
Numbers in parentheses refer to % share of total gross DIA. SOURCES: BNM, CIMB RESEARCH
Portfolio investment inflows were unabated, averaging RM44.5bn per year in 2010-12 after slumping to net outflows of RM85.2bn in 2008 during the global financial crisis. Both the push factors (the very easy global monetary conditions in mature economies) and pull drivers (the favourable growth prospects and high yield differentials) lured capital into domestic debt and equity securities. Foreigners were net buyers of Malaysian equities for the third straight month in Feb, pumping in RM1.7bn (RM2.5bn in Jan 2013 and RM0.8bn in Dec 2012). Foreign-owned Malaysian debt securities surged to RM229bn at end-Jan 2013
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March 20, 2013
(RM225.4bn at end-2012) and foreign shareholdings of Malaysian Government Securities hit a new high of 44.6% as at end-Jan. Looking ahead, we expect domestic companies' earnings momentum to remain positive, sustained by the ETP, higher economic growth prospects as well as potential currency gains, which will draw the interest of portfolio investors.
Figure 16: Strong portfolio investment inflows, partly fuelled by high global liquidity conditions Figure 17: Foreign holdings of Malaysian debt securities amounted to RM229bn at end-Jan 2013
RM bn
240
180
120
60
0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 As of Jan 2013
Others
SOURCES: BNM
Figure 19: Foreigners were net buyer of RM1.7bn Malaysian equities in Feb 2013
RM bn
6
Title: Source:
25
4 30 2 20 0
24
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23
22
10
-2
21
-4 0 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Net change in foreign holdings of Malaysian equities Malaysia Indonesia Thailand % of total Malaysian equities (RHS) Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13
20
4. Managing risks arising from household indebtedness Higher household debt ratio of 80.5% at end-2012
Although household loan growth moderated for the second year to 13% in 2012 from 13.4% in 2011, the level of household debt rose to 80.5% of GDP in 2012 (75.8% in 2011) due to slower economic growth. It is noteworthy that indicators of aggregate household resilience remain sound, buffered by solid financial and liquid assets: 1) household financial assets are 2.24x that of household debt (vs. 2.24x in 2011), 2) household liquid financial assets to household debt improved to 145.8 in 2012 vs. 144.7 in 2011, 3) the debt repayment ratio fell to 43.9 from 45.2 in 2011, and 4) the impaired loans ratio of the household sector improved to 1.5 in 2012 (1.8 in 2011).
ECONOMIC UPDATE
March 20, 2013
Figure 21: Lower debt repayment ratio and impaired loan ratio
% 46 %
Title: Source:
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400
40
40
Non-bank financial institutions (NBFI), including development financial institutions (DFI) which are regulated by the central bank, contributed about 12% of total credit to the household sector. These institutions provided a large share of personal financial credit to households, registering 57% of the total. In 2012, total credit on all facilities extended by the three largest NBFIs (comprising a DFI, a large cooperative and a building society) expanded at a faster rate of 23.1% (vs. 17.1% in 2011). This was driven primarily by a jump in personal financing activity, which has expanded 30% to date (25.1% in 2o11, 28.7% in 2010). NDFIs approved more than 600,000 new personal financing facilities worth RM43bn. About 80% of the personal financing was extended to salaried civil servants based on an automatic salary deduction scheme administered by Biro Perkhidmatan Angkasa (BPA). By income category, the majority of the borrowers earns a monthly income of less than RM3,000. The BPA scheme prescribes an aggregate deduction threshold of 60% of a borrower's total income net of statutory and other direct deductions from his salary. This lending practice helps to reduce credit risk and preserve the loan quality of the NBFI, which resulted in an impaired loan ratio of 1.6 for personal loans financing. Notwithstanding this, BNM indicated that it will continue to monitor the lending activities of other NBFI in order to contain its potentially wide spillovers to the household sector.
Figure 22: Composition of credit providers to household sector
Other non-bank lenders Treasury Housing 3.4% Loan Division 4.8%
Development financial institutions 8.5%
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Personal use 8.9%
SOURCES: BNM
SOURCES: BNM
ECONOMIC UPDATE
March 20, 2013
BNM also touched on the developments in the property market, which has been a focus of macro surveillance in the context of maintaining financial stability given the financial institutions' exposure to the property sector. As at end-2012, total exposure of financial institutions to the domestic property market amounted to about RM480bn or 51.2% of GDP. Banks' exposure to the property market came up to RM458.9bn or 24% of banking system assets. A significant 66.2% of the total was end-financing for the purchase of residential properties, which made up 27.4% of total outstanding loans of the banking system.
Figure 24: Financial institutions' exposures to the property market
Bridging financing for construction of properties 1.7% Working capital for construction of properties 2.9% End-financing for other non-residential property 12.3%
End-financing for office space 4.3%
SOURCES: BNM
It noted that the sustained increase in house prices have reduced home affordability in some locations, especially for those in the lower- to middle-income groups. While the upward trend in residential property prices was partly driven by macroeconomic factors, the element of investment purchases also had an influence on house prices, although they were not fuelled by excessive credit. While some lending restrictions (LTV cap of 70% was imposed for third properties and above as well as responsible lending guidelines requiring the banks to use net income in assessing borrowers' eligibility for consumer loans) and higher property resales tax (RPGT of 10-15% for property disposed of within the first five years of purchase) have been implemented to stem speculative activity, the central bank stated that it will remain vigilant and continue to monitor the situation closely. In BNM's view, the issues of affordability will need to be addressed through comprehensive measures, including fiscal and supply-side action, whilst it continues to keep tabs on incoming supply in the commercial property space, alluding to the potential risk of oversupply in the commercial property sector. Looking across the region, with asset prices rising to heady levels not seen since the credit boom five years ago, some central banks and regulators in the region have also implemented stricter macroprudential measures, including lending curbs, taxes on quick resales and higher stamp duties on property transactions.
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Title: Source:
12 9
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6 6 3 3 0 -3 0 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 Terraced house Malaysian house price index Average 2001-2012 =4.5% Detached house High rise unit Semi-Detached house 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12
The above growth rates were 3 quarters moving average rate. SOURCES: BNM, CEIC, CIMB RESEARCH
Figure 27: Higher RPGT will have a moderating effect on property prices
Disposal of properties 1st year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year 5th years After 5th year Real Property Gains Tax (RPGT, %) with effect from: Prior Apr 2007 (Individual) 30 30 20 15 5 0 Prior Apr 2007 (Corporate) 30 30 20 15 5 5 Prior Apr 2007 (Foreigners) 30 30 30 30 30 5 Apr 2007 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Jan 2010 5 5 5 5 5 0 1 Jan 2012 10 10 5 5 5 0 1 Jan 2013 15 15 10 10 10 0
Overall, BNMs Financial Stability Committee (FSC) and the Financial Stability Executive Committee (Executive Committee) deliberated about developments in the lending and property markets. Issues discussed include assessing potential risks associated with the exposure of the financial system to the property market, rising property prices and the possible oversupply condition in commercial properties (such as shopping complexes and offices and retail space). It was determined that while the risks remain low, continued vigilance is called for. Malaysia was assessed for the first time under the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) in 2012, which is conducted jointly by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The outcome of the assessment reaffirmed the strength and resilience of the country's banking sector, which is backed by a high level of compliance to domestic regulatory and supervisory framework. The robustness of financial market infrastructure, including the international standards of the deposit insurance system, also safeguard the stability of the financial system. The risks identified in the assessment, namely high household indebtedness, rising house prices and rapid credit growth, have long been on BNM's radar. The central bank reiterated that it will continue to monitor the business expansion and lending activities of the NBFIs, the high leverage of the lower-income households and developments in the property market.
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CIMBS has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMBS. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBS. United Arab Emirates: The distributor of this report has not been approved or licensed by the UAE Central Bank or any other relevant licensing authorities or governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. This report is strictly private and confidential and has not been reviewed by, deposited or registered with UAE Central Bank or any other licensing authority or governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. 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ECONOMIC UPDATE
March 20, 2013
Other jurisdictions: In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is only for distribution to professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions. CIMB Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M)
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