S LA CHN MNG DI NG L Hng Nht Trn Thin Trc Phng 15 /11/ 06 1.

. t vn Trn th trng mng di ng ti Vit nam hin nay c 4 mng c bn. Ngi tiu dng coi rng Mobi v Vina l cc mng c ng cp cao nht v cht lng. Tip n l Viettel, v cui cng l S-fone. S phn cp nh vy ch yu l do s khc bit v cht lng sng. Mobi v Vina, thuc VNPT, c cht lng sng cao nht, nh vo vic kim sot quyn s hu h tng mng ca chnh ph. Viettel b hn ch hn v h tng mng. V c bit l Sfone, cho ti gn y, vng ph sng ch c H ni v TP HCM. Do vy, c hai mng ny phi da ch yu vo gi cc thp v khuyn mi thu ht thu bao. Mc ch nghin cu chnh y l phn tch hnh vi la chn mng ca ngi tiu dng, da trn nhng cn nhc v cht lng dch v v gi cc thu bao. Bi vit cng nh gi chin lc cnh tranh ca tng nh cung cp dch v mng v kh nng m rng th phn ca h. Nghin cu c thc hin da trn mu iu tra ca khong 600 ngi tiu dng v hn 260 i l bn l in thoi di ng ti TP HCM. iu tra c tin hnh bi Trung tm phn tch v d bo th trng (CMAF), thuc khoa kinh t, i hc Quc gia, TP HCM. 2. Hnh vi la chn ca ngi tiu dng Ngy nay, s gia tng ca cc tin ch mng; cng vi tnh a dng ca cc mu in thoi di ng (TD) khin cho s la chn ca ngi tiu dng tr nn rt phc tp. Bn cnh , v s nhng chin dch qung co, khuyn mi, khin cho kh ai m c th m t c ht nhng cn nhc thit hn trong u ngi tiu dng khi h la chn mng hay my TD. iu dng nh gi rng, vic phn tch v d on hnh vi ca ngi tiu dng tr nn mt nhim v bt kh thi. Tuy nhin, cho d mu m, cc tin ch, v nhng chnh sch khuyn mi c a dng n th no chng na, th vic ngi tiu dng c la chn mt mng thu bao no hay khng cng ch ph thuc vo vic h nh gi th no v nhng yu t . Chng c tha mn cao nht i hi ca h v cht lng, tnh kinh t, hay gi tr v ng cp hay khng. Tc l, chng c tha mn tt nht thch ca ngi tiu dng khi s dng mt mng di ng hay khng. Tng t nh vy, cho d mu m TD c a dng n th no, th trong suy ngh ca ngi tiu dng, chng cng ch c phn vo mt trong ba nhm: c bn, trung bnh, v cu hnh cao. Ty theo i hi ca cng vic, nhu cu gii tr, cng nh s rng buc v ti tin, ngi tin dng s t la chn cho mnh cu hnh ph hp nht. Bi v mi cn nhc khi chn la mng u ph thuc vo s nh gi tnh ph hp ca cc dch v mng hay cc dng my so vi s thch c nhn; nn s la chn ny ph thuc vo

Trung tm phn tch v d bo th trng (CMAF), Khoa Kinh t, i hc quc gia, TP H ch Minh

nhn thc ca ngi tiu dng v cc dch v hay sn phm . Do vy, qung co, khuyn mi, kin bn b ngi thn, hay bt k thng tin no tc ng ti nhn thc ca ngi tiu dng, u nh hng n quyt nh la chn ca h. H cng nh gi cao thng tin t qung co hay khuyn mi, th cng chng t nhng thng tin l b ch cho vic ra quyt nh ca ngi tiu dng. Ngc li, nu h nh gi kin bn b l quan trng hn, th vic hc hi nhn thc ca ngi thn qua vic s dng sn phm l iu ngi tiu dng quan tm hn c trc khi la chn mng. Ty thuc vo nhng nh gi ny, chng ta c th nhn bit c gi tr thng hiu ca tng nh cung cp dch v mng. V c th nh gi c nh hng ca nhng nhn thc ti quyt nh thu bao ca h. Mt cch khi qut, gi tr thng hiu ca mi mng di ng ph thuc ch yu vo cht lng sng v cc tin ch mng. Mng cng c uy tn cao, th cng c th i hi mc gi cc cao hn. Ngc li, nhng mng cha to c gi tr thng hiu th buc phi a ra mc gi cc thp thu ht lp ngi tiu dng, m tnh kinh t l yu t quan trng nht trong quyt nh thu bao ca h. Da vo thng tin qung co, khuyn mi, v kin bn b, mi ngi tiu dng c cm nhn ring v ph hp ca tng mng so vi i hi ca c nhn. V nguyn tc, h c th la chn ra mt mng m n ph hp nht vi s thch v rng buc v ti tin ca mnh. Tc l, h phi t quyt nh h thuc ng cp no trong th trng thu bao. D nhin l khng ai c th c c s cm nhn v cht lng, hay nhng phn tch thit hn trong u ca ngi tiu dng trc khi i n quyt nh thu bao. Nhng hin nhin l chng ta c th quan st c quyt nh khi n c thc hin. Quan trng hn, cc quyt nh ny bc l nhn thc tim n trong suy ngh ngi tiu dng. Rng mng di ng no l ph hp nht vi nhu cu ca h. Da vo quan h nh vy, chng ta c th nh gi c kh nng ngi tiu dng s chn mng c th thu bao, ty theo s thch hay rng buc ti chnh ca h; m ta c th bit c thng qua iu tra th trng. Mt trong nhng ng dng quan trng ca phn tch d liu iu tra nu trn l n cho php d on, v trung bnh, s gia tng % s lng thu bao ca mt mng di ng, nu s tha mn ca ngi tiu dng v cht lng ca mng c nng ln. Hn th na, n cn a ra c s kim nh thng k v cht lng hay chnh xc ca cc d on . Nhng nghin cu th trng nh lng nh nu trn c s dng ht sc ph cp. Nhng mnh nht l M. V gn y, n pht trin rt nhanh Trung Quc. Vn l dng phn tch c th c ng dng trong rt nhiu lnh vc ca hot ng kinh doanh. Chng hn nh xp hng chng khon (bond ratings) theo cc thng s o lng sc khe ca cng ty; nh gi nhu cu ca ngi tiu dng v mt sn phm c th, nh xem mt trang web, ty thuc vo gii, tui, s thch, hay yu cu tm hiu thng tin ca h; hoc d on t l ngi mua chn mt sn phm c th, thuc mt thng hiu c th; hay d on t l s hng bn ra phi a vo bo hnh theo thi gian phc v.1 Tip sau l tm tt v d liu iu tra th trng ca nghin cu ny.

V nhng ng dng ca phng php phn tch nh lng trong nghin cu th trng, xin tham kho Quantitattive Models in Marketing Research, ca Franses v Paap, ti bn ln th 3 (2004), Cambridge University Press. V The handbook of Marketing research: Usese, Misuses, and Future advances, ca Grover, Rajiv and Vriens, Marco (2006), Sage Publications. C bn trn Amazon.com. 2

3. D liu iu tra Nh nu, mi ngi tiu dng thy nn chn mng di ng no, l ty thuc vo cm nhn ca h v mc quan trng v cht lng dch v v tnh kinh t. Cu hi iu tra yu cu ngi c phng vn nu cm nhn ca h v tm quan trng ca tng nhn t , c xp hng t rt quan trng, xung tng i, t quan trng, v cui cng l khng quan trng. Cc mc quan trng c m ha t 4 xung 3, 2, v cui cng l 1. Ngi c hi s chn th bc m n gn nht vi cm nhn ca h v tng yu t tr li phng vn . H cng cho bit s la chn mng ca h l g. S bng hi c tm tt di y:

. Thng tin cho nhn thc: Qung co Khuyn mi T vn ca ca hng kin bn b & ngi thn Yu cu c nhn v mng Cht lng sng Gi cc Tin ch mng Yu cu v TD cho cng vic & gii tr Tnh thi trang n gin, hp ti tin Tnh nng h tr cng vic (wireless, excel) tui (lin quan ti thu nhp & nhn thc) La chn ng cp Mobi Vina Viettel S-fone

iu tra nhm vo hai lp i tng: ngi tiu dng thu nhp thp (TNT), v ngi c thu nhp trung bnh hoc cao (TNC) ti TP.HCM. i vi lp i tng th nht, s mu iu tra l 358 ngi, ch yu l sinh vin (38%) v cng nhn (55,6%), tui i di 25 v t 25 n 35. H thuc hn 20 trng i hc, v 6 khu ch xut ln ti TP HCM. iu tra cng bao gm c nhng ngi bun bn nh, hnh ngh t do, vi tui t 35 n 45 v trn 45, nhng vi t l ly mu rt thp (di 7%). Ni khc i, vic ly mu ch tp trung vo th trng ngch ca nhng ngi tr tui, ni m S-fone ang pht trin nhanh nht vi chng trnh khuyn mi forever couple. i vi lp i tng th hai, bao gm nhng ngi tiu dng c thu nhp trung bnh hoc cao, s mu iu tra l 254 ngi. Bao gm nhn vin vn phng (32,28%); k s, bc s, v dc s (25,2%); ging vin (7,09%), doanh nhn (22,44%); v cc i tng khc (12,99%). i tng iu tra tri u hu ht cc tui, nhng tp trung ch yu vo tui t 25 n 35 (119 ngi, hay 46%). y l la tui tng i tr, nng ng, c vic lm n nh; v cng phn nh ng yu t dn s tr ca TP HCM. 3

Ton b s liu gc ca cuc iu tra c gi ti Western Telecom, cng ty t hng nghin cu ny, sau khi vic iu tra kt thc. B s liu cng c th c download t trang web http://cuasotinhoc.com. Di y l tm tt v c trng thng k ca d liu thu thp c t phng vn. V tm quan trng ca thng tin gip cho s nhn thc: d liu iu tra cho thy khng c s khc bit nhiu v nhn thc gia hai lp i tng iu tra, thu nhp thp (TNT), v thu nhp trung bnh v cao (TNC). C hai lp i tng ny u cho rng, qung co l t quan trng. Trong khi , khuyn mi l tng i quan trng khi i chn mng (xem bng 1). D liu iu tra cng cho thy, nhm c tui di 25, hoc t 25 n 35 quan tm nht ti thng tin khuyn mi. C th v h nng ng hn, hoc c thu nhp thp hn, nn nhu cu nm bt tin tc l cao hn. iu gi rng, tui c nh hng ti hiu ng ca khuyn mi ti s lng thu bao. i vi lp tr, hiu ng l mnh; i vi lp cao tui, hiu ng ca khuyn mi l t c ngha; phn v h khng tho tin, phn v h t c nhu cu. i vi yu cu v dch v mng: C hai lp TNT v TNC u i hi rt cao v cht lng sng v gi cc hp l (xem bng 1).

Bng 1: Tm quan trng ca cc yu t tc ng n s la chn mng

4.0 M c quan trng 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 kin bn b Qung Khuy n co mi Cht l ng sng Gi c c Tin ch Thu nhp thp Thu nhp cao

Tuy nhin, cng cn phi ni ngay rng, i vi lp thu nhp cao, i hi v cht lng sng tt l iu ng nhin. V vy, ta d on rng, yu t ny s t c ngha trong vic gii thch hnh vi la chn mng ca h. H s chn Mobi, Vina, hay Viettel, ty theo gi cc c thp b p cho s gim xung v cht lng sng hay khng. Nhng cht lng sng vn phi mc chp nhn c. Ngc li, i vi lp thu nhp thp, yu cu cht lng sng c th phi b hy sinh ng k, nhng ch cho i hi v tnh kinh t, tc l mc gi cc thp. V vy, S-fone kh thnh cng trn th trng cu hnh c bn, ginh cho nhng ngi tiu dng c thu nhp thp nht; bt k vng ph sng b hn ch. iu ny to ra mt s khc bit c bn trong yu cu v dch v mng v my gia hai nhm TNT v TNC. i vi lp TNT, nhn thc v dch v ca mng, c bit l cht lng sng v cc chnh sch khuyn mi, tr nn rt nhy cm trong quyt nh thu bao ca h. Cht lng sng cng b nh gi mc thp, th gi cc v khuyn mi phi c nh gi mc cao

c th thu ht s quan tm ca h. iu ng cho Viettel. V cng ng i vi S-fone, nh ch ra Bng 2.

Bng 2: kin nh gi v mng S-fone ca i tng TNT

Khuy n mi

Gi c c

Cht l ng sng

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

Mc nh gi

Ghi ch: Bng 2 cho thy r S-fone dng chnh sch gi cc v khuyn mi u i b cho hn ch v cht lng sng. Thm vo , trn th trng TD, lp TNT l nhng ngi tiu dng thuc phn khc cu hnh c bn. Do vy, tin ch mng, cng nh nhng i hi tnh nng h tr cng vic, tnh thi trang ca TD, vn vn, nu c c nh gi cao, th phn nhiu cng ch l s ao c. Mt cch thc tin, ta nn k vng rng nhng yu t s t c ngha thc s gii thch cho hnh vi chn mng ca ngi c thu nhp thp. Tnh hnh hon ton khc i vi lp ngi tiu dng thu nhp trung bnh v cao. i vi lp TNC, yu cu v tnh nng h cng vic ca TD l tng i quan trng (xem bng 3). V v vy, yu cu v mng c cung cp nhng gi tr gia tng tng ng l i hi tt yu. Ni khc i, yu cu v tnh nng h tr cng vic ca my c nh hng trc tip ti t l % ngi tiu dng chn thu bao cc mng ng cp cao trn phn khc ny. i li vi i hi v tin ch l nhng cn nhc kinh t. My cng c nhiu tnh nng, nh kt ni Internet wireless, xem truyn hnh trc tip, bluetooth, th gi my cng cao v ph tr cho dch v kt ni cng t. V vy, s quan tm v tnh n gin, hp ti tin cng tr nn c ngha trong vic gii thch hnh vi chn my v mng di ng ca ngi tiu dng (xem bng 3). Cng nhn mnh hn n tnh kinh t so vi i hi v tin ch, th ngi tiu dng cng c xu hng chn ng cp mng thp hn. V vy, h cng cn tham kho kin bn b nhiu hn m bo cho mnh s tha mn nht nh v cht lng. Tnh n gin, hp ti tin, v nhu cu tham kho kin bn b, v vy, c th ng thi tc ng ti t l % ngi tiu dng chn cc mng r, nh Viettel hay S-fone trn phn khc ny.

Bng 3: Tm quan trng ca cc yu t ti vic chn my TD ca i tng TNC

3.2 Mc quan trng 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 kin bn b/ng i thn Chc nng n gin, Tnh nng h tr cng h p ti tin vic

Nhng nhn xt nu trn v d liu iu tra s l tin cho vic lp m hnh phn tch hnh vi la chn mng ca ngi tiu dng. Nh gi , m hnh cng cho php d bo nh hng tng hp ca nhng cn nhc ca c nhn ti c cu th phn ca cc mng. 4. Th phn ca cc mng di ng 4.1 Th trng TD vi cu hnh c bn Vic phn tch d liu nu trn gi rng, i vi lp i tng TNT, cc yu t nh hng r rt nht ti vic la chn mng s l: Yu cu v cht lng sng (+) Chnh sch khuyn mi (-) i hi v gi cc hp l (-), v nh gi v cht lng sng ca S-fone (-)

Ta d on rng, nu ngi tiu dng cng i hi cao v cht lng sng, th h cng c xu hng chn ng cp mng cao hn, nh Mobi hay Vina. Ta nh du quan h thun chiu bi du (+). Ngc li, nu ngi tiu dng cng yu cu cao hn v khuyn mi hay gi cc thp, th h cng c xu hng chn ng cp mng thp hn, nh Viettel, S-fone. Ta th hin quan h nghch chiu bi du (-). Nhng ngi ny cng s nhy cm hn vi nhng im yu ca cc mng ng cp thp. Chng hn nh cht lng sng ca S-fone. Nh s ch ra, iu cng c ngha l, nu nh gi ca ngi tiu dng v cht lng sng ca Sfone tt ln, th th phn ca S-fone s tng. Tc l cng c nhiu ngi chn ng cp thp nht trong trt t hin hnh ca th trng mng. Ta k hiu mi quan h bi du (-). Mt cch tng qut, cng c nhiu ngi i hi cao v cht lng sng, th mc trung bnh v ch tiu , cng nh s lng ngi chn cc mng ng cp cao s tng ln. Ni khc i, nu v trung bnh, s i hi v cht lng sng cng cao, th t trng ngi chn Mobi v Vina trong lp i tng TNT cng ln. Tng t nh vy, nu yu cu v khuyn mi v gi cc cng quan trng trong vic chn mng, th t trng hay th phn ca Viettel hoc S-fone 6

cng m rng. V v vng ph sng b hn ch; lng thu bao ca S-fone cn ph thuc trc tip vo nh gi trung bnh ca ngi tiu dng v cht lng sng ca n. T bng tm tt d liu ca vic iu tra 358 ngi thuc i tng TNT, ta thy v trung bnh, nhm i tng ny nh gi mc quan trng v cht lng sng l 3,7 im; v gi cc l 3,2 im; v nh gi tt v cht lng sng ca S-fone l 2,7 im. (Xem bng 1 v 2). Da trn nhng con s thng k , nhm phn tch v d bo th trng, thuc khoa kinh t, HQG (CMAF) tin hnh phn tch tc ng ca cc yu t nu trn ti th phn ca tng mng trong ng cp hin hnh. Cc nghin cu vin thuc CMAF phn cc mng di ng thnh 3 cp: Mobi - Vina, Viettel, v cui cng l S-fone2. Nhng tnh ton t m hnh ca h a ra con s d bo v th phn ca 3 ng cp mng ni trn l 0,691 cho Mobi Vina gp li; 0,245 cho Viettel; v 0,063 cho S-fone. [Xem kt qu tnh ton m hnh ph lc 1]. Th phn thc t ca cc mng, da trn mu iu tra, ln lt l 67,6% cho Mobi v Vina cng li; 24,9% cho Viettel; v cui cng, 7,5% cho S-fone3 Kt qu phn tch cn cho thy, yu cu v cht lng sng tt ca ngi tiu dng l cn tr r rt nht ti s gia tng thu bao ca c S-fone v Viettel. V cng l yu t quan trng nht cho php Mobi v Vina duy tr u th tuyt i trn phn khc cu hnh c bn ca TD. C th l, nu lp i tng TNT yu cu v cht lng sng tng thm 0,1 im so vi mc trung bnh hin nay (3,7 im); th th phn ca Mobi Vina s tng thm l 0,0115 hay l tng 1,7% so vi th phn hin thi l 0,676, tnh t mu iu tra. Ngc li, s quan tm v gi cc l yu t c ngha nht, gii thch cho s gia tng th phn ca c Viettel v S-fone. Nu lp i tng TNT t tm quan trng ca gi cc trong quyt nh chn mng ca h tng thm 0,1 im so vi mc trung bnh hin nay (3,2 im); th th phn ca Viettel s tng thm 0,0045, hay 1,8% so vi th phn hin ti ca n l 0,249; v S-fone s tng 0,0024, hay 3,2% so vi th phn 0,075. Ring cho S-fone, nu nh gi v cht lng sng ca S-fone c ci thin thm 0,1 im so vi mc trung bnh hin nay (2,7 im); th th phn ca S-fone s tng l 0,0023, hay l 3% so vi mc th phn 0,075 ca n, tnh t mu iu tra. Cui cng, nh ni, khuyn mi ch nh hng ch yu ti gii tr. C th l, chng trnh forever couple ca S-fone v cc chng trnh khuyn mi ca Viettel hng ch yu vo tui di 25, hoc t 25 n 35. V vy, vic phn tch tc ng ca khuyn mi c thc hin thng qua vic tch ring lp ngi tiu dng tr tui ny khi nhng ngi cn li. Kt qu tnh ton cho thy, tc ng ca chng trnh khuyn mi forever couple ca S-fone lm th phn ca n tng ln 0,049 so vi trng hp nu nh chng trnh khuyn mi khng c tung ra. Ni khc i, nu chng trnh forever couple khng tn ti, th phn ca S-fone s ch vo khong 0,02, theo nh c tnh t m hnh. Tc l ch bng 26% so vi th phn 0,075 ca S-fone hin nay trn phn khc TD cu hnh c bn.

Vic tch Mobi v Vina thnh hnh hai ng cp khc nhau trong lp i tng TNT khng cho ra kt qu d bo tt. V vy, s chia tch b b qua. 3 Mc d cha c thng k chnh thc c cu th phn ca cc mng di ng ti TP HCM; cm nhn chung ca cc chuyn gia, khi c hi, cho rng thng k mu trn y v th phn cc mng trn th trng cu hnh c bn l kh ph hp vi thc t.

Tc ng khuyn mi ca Viettel cng khng km phn ngon mc. Theo nh c tnh t m hnh, cc chng trnh khuyn mi ca Viettel lm th phn ca n tng thm l 0,1227. Ni khc i, nu khng c cc chng trnh khuyn mi hng vo tui t 25 ti 35 hoc tr hn, th phn ca Viettel s ch vo khong 0,134, theo c tnh t m hnh. Tc l ch bng 54% so vi th phn 0,249 ca Viettel hin nay trn phn khc TD cu hnh c bn. Nhn chung, th phn ca Mobi v Vina cng li trn phn khc cu hnh c bn b thit i khong 0,172 do cc chnh sch khuyn mi ca S-fone v Viettel, theo nh c tnh t m hnh. Tc l b mt vo khong 25%, so vi th phn hin ti l 67,6 ca c Mobi v Vina cng li. Phn tip sau l nhng phn tch da trn d liu iu tra cho lp i tng TNC. 4.2 Th trng TD cu hnh trung bnh v cao Ngoi tc ng ca tui m ta s bn ti sau, chng ta d on rng, cc yu t c ngha nht trong vic l gii hnh vi la chn mng ca ngi tiu dng s l: Gi cc (-) Tnh nng h tr cng vic ca TD (+) Chc nng n gin, hp ti tin ca TD (-), v kin bn b, ngi thn (-)

Nu ngi tiu dng cng i hi cao v tnh nng ca TD, th h cng cng c xu hng chn ng cp mng cao hn vi tin ch mng tt hn cho TD. V vy du i km l (+). Nu h cng nhn mnh ti gi cc hp l, hay mun chn TD vi cu hnh n gin hn, th h cng c xu hng chuyn xung cc mng tr hn, hoc c ng cp thp hn, nh Viettel, S-fone. Do vy, du i km l (-). Nhng khch hng ny cng thy cn tham kho kin bn b. H cng cao vic hc hi bn b hay chia s tin tc th trng, th cng chng t c s cn trng hn v cht lng dch v. Tc l h ang c nh chn ng cp mng thp hn vi cht lng khng n nh. Ta k hiu quan h bi du (-). Hin nay, trn phn khc cu hnh trung bnh v cao (vi nhiu tnh nng h tr cng vic v gii tr), mu m TD trn th trng hin nay ch yu l GSM, ti gn 100%. V vy, nu lp i tng TNC c s thch hay yu cu cao v nhng TD ny, th iu cng c ngha l t trng ngi chn Mobi v Vina s cao ln. Ngc li, nu h i hi nhiu hn ti tnh kinh t (gi cc hp l, TD n gin, hp ti tin); th th phn ca Viettel v S-fone s tng ln. D liu iu tra 254 ngi thuc lp TNC cho thy, v trung bnh, lp TNC nh gi nhu cu ca h v TD cu hnh trung bnh v cao l 2,716 im; v tm quan trng ca tnh n gin, hp ti tin khi chn TD l 3,027 im; v v gi cc hp l khi i thu bao mng l 3,401 im; v v nhu cu chia s thng tin, hi kin bn b khi mua TD l 2,716 im (xem cc bng 3 v 1). Da trn cc thng k nu trn, m hnh tnh ton a ra cc con s d bo v th phn ca cc mng l nh sau: 0,035 cho S-fone; 0,152 cho Viettel; 0,256 cho Vina; v cui cng, 0,547 cho Mobi. [Xem kt qu tnh ton m hnh ph lc 2]. Con s thc v th phn ca 8

cc mng da trn mu iu tra l: 5% cho S-fone; 15% cho Viettel; 25% cho Vina; v 51% cho Mobi, cng vi khong 4% ngi dng hai mng. Nhn chung, so vi th trng TD cu hnh c bn, th cn bng hin thi gia cc mng trn phn khc cu hnh trung bnh v cao xem ra l n nh hn. Chng hn, nu lp i tng TNC t tm quan trng ca gi cc cao hn 0,1 im so vi mc trung bnh hin nay (3,401 im); th iu cng ch lm th phn ca Viettel tng thm c 0,007 hay 4,6% so vi mc th phn ca n l 0,15. Cng vy, nu yu cu v TD c chc nng n gin, hp ti tin tng thm 0,1 im so vi mc trung bnh hin ti (l 3,027 im); th ch c th phn ca S-fone s tng ln nhiu nht. Nhng cng ch vo khong 0,0013, tc l ch c 2,6% so vi th phn hin thi ca n l 0,05 trn phn khc ny. cc mng khc, s thay i th phn l khng ng k. Nhng tnh ton nu trn th hin rng, trn phn khc TD cu hnh trung bnh v cao, cnh tranh qua gi cc hoc khuyn mi c tn dng gn ht. Cnh tranh gi y chuyn nhiu vo lnh vc dch v gia tng. Tuy nhin, sc mnh th trng lnh vc ny c phn b rt khng u; tp trung ch yu vo tay ca Mobifone, nh phn tch di y ch ra: Ging nh vic S-fone v Viettel tung ra cc chnh sch khuyn mi tng nhanh th phn ca mnh trn phn khc TD cu hnh c bn. Trn phn khc cu hnh trung bnh v cao, Mobi cng s dng sc mnh th trng v cung cp cc tin ch mng m rng th phn. Phn tch d liu iu tra cho thy, lp i tng TNC c i hi kh cao v tin ch mng. Nhng yu cu l mnh nht lp ngi c tui t 25 n 45, tc l nhm c thu nhp cao v n nh nht. nhng nhm tui cn li, di 25 v trn 45, h t quan tm ti tin ch mng. L do l, vi tui di 25, thu nhp thng cha cao hoc cha n nh; v vi tui trn 45, ngi ta t nm bt c tin b cng ngh v cc tin ch i km. V vy, xem xt cc tin ch mng do Mobi tung ra c tc ng mnh ti mc no, ta cn bc tch lp ngi tiu dng c tui t 25 n 45 ra khi cc tui cn li. Kt qu tnh ton cho thy, vic Mobi tung ra cc tin ch mng cao cp, hng vo nhm thu nhp cao vi tui t 25 n 45, lm th phn ca n tng ln 0,1194 so vi trng hp nu nh cc dch v khng c tung ra th trng. Ni cch khc, nu vng mt cc dch v gi tr gia tng , th phn ca Mobi s ch cn l 0,469, theo nh tnh ton t m hnh. Tc l ch vo khong 85,2% so vi th phn hin nay ca Mobi l 0,55 (k c nhm 4% dng hai mng). Mt kim chng na c thc hin nhm nh gi nh hng ca vic S-fone gn y tung ra cc dch v xem phim theo yu cu, xem truyn hnh trc tip trn TD. D nhin, c th hng th cc dch v ny, cn phi c s tng ln v nhu cu ca ngi tiu dng TNC v TD cu hnh mnh. Tuy nhin, nu gi s c s gia tng nh vy, chng hn l 0,1 im so vi mc trung bnh hin nay (l 2,716 im); th iu s ch lm tng th phn ca Mobi ln 0,0062; hay l 1,1% so vi th phn hin thi ca n l 0,55. Trn phn khc m TD GSM chim ti gn 100%, cc mu m mi vi cu hnh cao vn s ch l GSM. Do vy, ngi tiu dng vn tm n nh cung cp tin ch mng GSM, nu h c mun s dng cc tnh nng cao cp ca TD. iu khng nh rng, cc dch v gia tng m S-fone va tung ra s khng lm thay i g nhiu th cn bng hin thi trn phn khc cu hnh cao cp. V ch nn coi nh mt hnh thc qung co n u.

Cui cng, lp i tng TNC i hi rt cao v cht lng sng, gn mc cao tuyt i. Nhng iu hon ton khng c ngha v mt thng k cho vic gii thch hnh vi la chn mng ca h4. i hi v sng tt l iu mc nhin i vi h. iu ny cng c ngha l: S-fone len chn vo phn khc cu hnh cao; th nhn nh ca nhm ngi ny v cht lng sng ca S-fone phi c ci thin mt cch ng k. (Hin thi nhm TNC nh gi cht lng sng ca S-fone ch c 2,73 im, rt thp so vi yu cu ca h l 3,88 im). y l tr ngi ln nht m S-fone cn phi vt qua pht trin. 5. Kt lun Nhng phn tch nu trn cho php chng ta a ra mt vi nhn nh chung nh sau: Th nht, s ph thuc v h tng mng l tr ngi c bn cho Viettel, v mc trm trng hn nhiu, cho S-fone, trong vic nng cao cht lng sng v cc tin ch mng thu ht thm s lng thu bao. Th hai, Viettel v S-fone, do vy, u phi da ch yu vo gi cc u i v cc chnh sch khuyn mi tng sc cnh tranh, nng cao th phn. Cc chnh sch ny c hiu qu mnh hn phn khc TD c bn, do ngi tiu dng sn sng hy sinh nhiu hn i hi v cht lng sng cho tnh kinh t. Nhng phn khc trung bnh v cao; tc ng ca khuyn mi v gi cc ht sc hn ch; do ngi tiu dng TNC c i hi gt gao v cht lng sng. Th ba, trn phn khc cu hnh trung bnh v cao, Viettel c th vn tip tc dng chnh sch cnh tranh qua gi cc thp, kt hp vi vic nng cao h tng pht sng thu ht thm lng thu bao. Tuy vy, s gia tng th phn ca n chm li (di 5%). Bn cnh chnh sch cnh tranh qua gi cc, Viettel cn phi chuyn nhiu hn sang vic khai thc dch v gi tr gia tng m rng th phn mt cch c ngha hn. Th t, vic khai thc nhu cu v TD c chc nng n gin, hp ti tin, s vn l chin lc chnh cho S-fone len chn vo th trng cu hnh trung bnh. Nhng to nn s thay i c ngha, S-fone cn phi lm thay i r rt suy ngh ca ngi tiu dng v cht lng sng ca mnh. Nu gii hn ny khng c y li, th S-fone vn s ch pht trin c phn khc cu hnh c bn m thi. Ni khc i, s gia tng s thu bao v s lng bn TD CDMA cu hnh trung bnh s ph thuc ch yu vo vic nng cao uy tn v cht lng sng ca cc mng CDMA. Vic ch n thun khai thc s thch ca ngi tiu dng v TD CDMA vi chc nng n gin, hp ti tin, s khng gip g nhiu. Nh c tnh, n ch lm tng th phn ca S-fone di 3%. Th nm, trn phn khc cu hnh trung bnh v cao, cnh tranh gia cc mng qua vic cung cp gi tr gia tng cn rt hn ch, do Mobi c sc mnh th trng tuyt i v cc dch v ny. V vy, tc ng ca qung co v cc hnh thc cnh tranh phi gi c khc cha c ngha nhiu ti th trng mng Vit nam.

Yu cu v cht lng sng ca i tng TNC khng qua c kim nh thng k v mc c ngha cho vic gii thch hnh vi chn mng ca h (xem ph lc tnh ton 2).

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Ti liu tham kho Franses and Papp. Quantitative Models in Marketing Research. Chapter 6. An Ordered Multinomial Dependent Variable. Cambridge University Press, third edition, 2001. Green. Econometric Analysis,Chapter 19. Models with Discrete Dependent Variables. Prentice Hall, forth edition, 2000. Grover, Rajiv and Vriens, Marco. The handbook of Marketing research: Usese, Misuses, and Future advances, Sage Publications, 2006. Marcus and Green. The Determinant of Rating Assignment and Performance. Working paper CRC528, 1985. Nakosteen and Zimmer. Migration and Income: The Question of Self-Selection. Southern Economic Journal, 46, 1980. Willis and Rosen. Education and Self-Selection, The Journal of Political Economy, N. 5, 1979.

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Ph lc 1: c lng cc yu t tc ng ln s la chn mng ca lp i tng TNT: Dependent variable: Mobile (0=S-fone; 1= Viettel; 2= Vina & Mobi)
Method: ML - Ordered Probit (Quadratic hill climbing) Date: 10/24/06 Time: 23:41 Sample: 1 358 Included observations: 358 Number of ordered indicator values: 3 Convergence achieved after 4 iterations QML (Huber/White) standard errors & covariance Coefficient AGE1+AGE2 TASTE2 TASTE3 SFP1 -0.56739 0.327937 -0.19834 -0.19049 Limit Points LIMIT_1:C(5) LIMIT_2:C(6) -1.98345 -0.95458 0.641735 0.626989 -3.09077 -1.52249 0.002 0.1279 Std. Error 0.332445 0.111641 0.085787 0.095544 z-Statistic -1.70672 2.93743 -2.31197 -1.9937 Prob. 0.0879 0.0033 0.0208 0.0462

Ch thch:

TASTE2: Yu cu v cht lng sng TASTE3: Yu cu v gi cc SFP1: nh gi v cht lng sng ca S-fone. AGE1+AGE2: nh gi tc ng ca khuyn mi, hng ti nhm i tng di 35 tui.

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Ph lc 2: c lng cc yu t tc ng ln s la chn mng ca lp i tng TNC: Dependent variable: Mobile (0=S-fone; 1= Viettel; 2= Vina; 3= Mobi)
Dependent Variable: MOBILE Method: ML - Ordered Probit (Quadratic hill climbing) Date: 10/24/06 Time: 23:05 Sample: 1 254 Included observations: 253 Number of ordered indicator values: 4 Convergence achieved after 5 iterations QML (Huber/White) standard errors & covariance Coefficient AGE2+AGE3 TASTE3 FONE1 FONE4 FONE7 0.301225 -0.37173 -0.13967 -0.17707 0.157679 Limit Points LIMIT_1:C(6) LIMIT_2:C(7) LIMIT_3:C(8) -3.33526 -2.41357 -1.64658 0.520776 0.483361 0.481461 -6.40441 -4.9933 -3.41997 0 0 0.0006 Std. Error 0.16284 0.100397 0.075228 0.078369 0.071446 z-Statistic 1.849813 -3.70263 -1.85664 -2.25939 2.206959 Prob. 0.0643 0.0002 0.0634 0.0239 0.0273

Ch thch:

TASTE3: i hi v gi cc FONE1: kin bn b v ngi thn FONE4: Yu cu v tnh nng n gin hp ti tin, khi chn TD FONE7: Yu cu v cc tnh nng h tr cng vic ca TD AGE2+AGE3 o lng tc ng ca cc gi tr gia tng cao cp hng ti nhm tui t 25 n 45.

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