NH GI NH HNG CA RNG N S HNH THNH DNG CHY L TRN MT S LU VC MIN TRUNG BNG M HNH SNG NG HC MT CHIU Nguyn Thanh

Sn Trng i hc Khoa hc T nhin, i hc Quc gia H Ni ASSESMENT OF FOREST IMPACTS ON FLOOD FLOW IN SOME RIVER BASINS IN CENTRAL VIETNAM USING 1D KINEMATIC WAVE MODEL Nguyen Thanh Son College of Sciense, VNU Tm tt. Vic m phng l thng c gii quyt thng qua cc bi ton v qu trnh thm v qu trnh tp trung nc trn lu vc. S dng m hnh sng ng hc mt chiu (KW-1D) phng php phn t hu hn kt hp vi phng php SCS (Soil Conservation Service) thu c nhng thnh cng nht nh khi m phng l trn mt s lu vc sng ngi Min Trung. Bi bo gii thiu kt qu p dng m hnh ny nh gi tc ng ca cc kch bn thay i lp ph rng n s hnh thnh nh l, t xut vic khai thc rng hp l v s dng m hnh nh l mt cng c h tr ra quyt nh cho cc nh quy hoch lu vc sng. 1. t vn Theo [1], m hnh sng ng hc mt chiu da trn c s xp x chi tit khng gian lu vc v tch phn s tr cc phng trnh o hm ring m t cc qu trnh vt l din ra trn lu vc nhm din ton qu trnh hnh thnh dng chy sng qua hai giai on: dng chy trn sn dc v trong lng dn. M hnh cho php nh gi c tc ng quy m nh ca cc yu t mt m trn lu vc n dng chy, m ra mt giai on mi trong m hnh ho cc qu trnh thu vn. Da trn m hnh ca Ross B.B v nnk, (i hc Quc gia Blacksburg, M) [6] dng nh gi nh hng ca vic s dng t n qu trnh l vi ma vt thm l u vo ca m hnh, phng php phn t hu hn kt hp vi phng php s d ca Galerkin c s dng gii h phng trnh sng ng hc ca dng chy mt chiu. Phng trnh lin tc: (1) Phng trnh ng lng

(2) trong : Q: Lu lng trn bi dng chy trn mt hoc trong knh. q: Dng chy b sung ngang trn mt n v chiu di ca bi dng chy (ma vt thm i vi bi dng chy trn mt v u ra ca dng chy trn mt i vi knh dn). A: Din tch dng chy trong bi dng chy trn mt hoc trong knh, x: khong cch theo hng dng chy, t: thi gian, g: gia tc trng trng, S: dc y ca bi dng chy. Sf: dc ma st. y: su dng chy Thut gii h phng trnh trn c trnh by trong [1], p dng cho lu vc sng Tr Khc [5], V [2],v T Trch [4] kt hp vi phng php SCS tnh ma hiu qu lm u vo ca m hnh cho kt qu m phng dng chy kh tt. Do tnh cht ca phng php SCS, khi thay i cc iu kin mt m trn cc lu vc, s nh hng ti vic hnh thnh dng chy mt, ni chung v hnh thnh l, ni ring. Vic thay i iu kin s dng t trn lu vc dn ti s thay i h s CN [7] v ko theo l tnh cht l. Bng m hnh KW -1D c th kho st c mc nh hng ca vic khai thc lp ph rng n s hnh thnh l, t c th t vn cho cc nh quy hoch v gii hn nguy him ca mc s dng t i vi s pht trin bn vng ti nguyn t v nc. Qua kho st cc lu vc nghin cu, phn tch cc iu kin thun li v a hnh, giao thng

v cc iu kin dn c, tc gi xy dng cc kch bn s dng lp ph rng, rt ra nhng kt lun v mc gii hn s dng t tc ng n s hnh thnh l cc nh quy hoch c nh hng ng, trnh gy cc him ha v thin tai l lt do s qu ti khi khai thc lu vc. Yu t s dng t c xt n l qu trnh thay i lp ph rng. Cc bc phn tch v tnh ton c tin hnh theo cc kch bn nh sau: 1. Phn tch cc iu kin a l t nhin v kinh t x hi trn cc lu vc sng nghin cu xy dng kch bn s dng t 2. Thay i dn din tch s dng t trn cc phn t, la chn li h s CN v tnh ton li qu trnh l bng m hnh KW-1D 3. Xy dng quan h gia din tch s dng t (%) theo cc kch bn vi nh v tng lng l 4. a ra kt lun v nh hng ca qu trnh s dng t n s hnh thnh dng chy l trn lu vc. 2. S liu S liu dng m phng l v kho st nh hng ca lp ph rng l ti liu ma gi v trch l t nm 1998 - 2004 cng vi bn s v lp ph rng nm 2000, t l 1: 50.000 S trn l c chn kho st nh sau: Lu vc T Trch Thng Nht: 9 trn; Tr Khc Sn Giang: 3 trn v V An Ch: 2 trn 3. nh gi nh hng ca lp ph rng n s hnh thnh l Khai thc rng ang l mt vn x hi cn quan tm khi m vai tr ca rng ngy cng c khng nh. Hin nay v l thuyt c th hn ch nhng nhu cu v lm sn bng vic thay th nhng vt liu mi, nhng thc t khng trit tiu c nhu cu . Hn na chnh nhng nhu cu y cn em li khng t vic lm cho ngi dn v v vai tr ca rng rt quan trng trong nn kinh t quc dn nn cn xc nh mc khai thc rng m bo khng vt qu mc gii hn, khng lm tng t ngt qu trnh l, gy ra nhng hu qu nghim trng ng thi li tn dng c nhng tim nng kinh t ca rng. Qkhaitha Qtrng % % c (m3/s) 477 44.2 (m3/s) 474.4 47.9 547 21.6 472.5 50.6 544.9 25.3 442.7 54.7 521 31.5 434.6 58.6 493.8 35.8 422.8 62.3 482.7 38.5 477.9 Wkhaithac (m3) 21333 21251 20319 19258 18825 18638 41.8 % 21.6 25.3 31.5 35.8 38.5 41.8 410.5 Wtrng (m3) 18603 18501 18427 17265 16949 16489 16009.5 64.9 % 44.2 47.9 50.6 54.7 58.6 62.3 64.9

Hnh 1. nh hng ca lp ph rng n dng chy l trn sng T Trch - Thng Nht trn l t 16h/21n 4h/23/X/2000 Thc hin vic kho st nh hng ca qu trnh khai thc rng trn lu vc sng T Trch trm Thng Nht nhm xc nh ngng khai thc rng m khng gy t bin i vi qu trnh l bng kch bn nu trn. Tin hnh tng din tch khai thc rng trn lu vc dn ti vic xc lp li b thng s ca m hnh KW 1D, c th l ch s CN v n cho cc phn t khi c s thay i s dng t [7] (vi CN = 79, n = 0.3) . Sau tin hnh thay i cc thng s CN v n trong cc file thng s ca m hnh KW 1D tin hnh thc nghim s vi cc trn l la chn trn lu vc sng T Trch Thng Nht. S thay i din tch rng trn lu vc sng T Trch vi kch bn t tng din tch rng hin trng (khng bn n chng loi rng) chim 44.3% din tch lu vc, gim che ph theo cc mc tun t l 41.8% 38.5% 35.8% 25.3% 21.6% din tch lu vc. Sau khi thay i CN v h s nhm trung bnh phn t trong cc file thng s tin hnh tnh ton li cho 9 trn l chn trn sng T Trch. Th hin kt qu ca cc kch bn khai thc rng trn lu vc sng T Trch n dng chy l c kho st bng cc quan h Qmax~Frng, W~ Frng (Hnh 1) nh gi nh hng ca vic khai thc rng n dng chy l qua 9 trn l trn sng T Trch - trm Thng Nht, thy rng: khi din tch khai thc rng tng th nh v lng l tng ln do s gim nhm v kh nng thm nc ca lu vc dn ti s tng dng chy mt v nh l. Vic gim din tch rng c th hin trong hnh 1 cho thy rng c th khai thc rng nhng vn phi gi din tch rng trn lu vc vi che ph khong 35% din tch lu vc th khng gy t bin v l. Vic khai thc rng trn lu vc sng T Trch lm cho che ph di gii hn 35 % s lm cho lng dng chy v nh l tng t ngt, gy nguy him cho s pht trin kinh t x hi. V vy, kin ngh vi cc nh quy hoch s dng t rng, khai thc rng hiu qu phi kt hp vi vic ti sinh rng m bo hin trng rng khu vc n nh khng c hin tng nh l tng t bin gy nguy him. Vic trng rng ng vai tr ht sc quan trng trong qu trnh hnh thnh v iu tit dng chy nht l i vi cc khu rng u ngun v rng phng h. Vic tng din tch rng s gp phn iu ha dng chy trong nm, n lm gim dng chy mt v tng dng chy ngm, t dn n lm gim tng lng dng mt, nh l. Ngoi ra rng cn gp phn vo vic chng xi mn v ra tri trn b mt lu vc, lm tng ph nhiu ca t v lm cn bng h sinh thi trn lu vc. Ngoi lu vc sng T Trch trm Thng Nht, tin hnh cc kho st tng t i vi cc lu vc sng Tr Khc trm Sn Giang, sng V trm An Ch. Kt qu tng hp ngng khai thc rng n nh l c trnh by bng 1. Bng 1. Kt qu kho st nh gi nh hng ca rng n dng chy l trn cc lu vc sng nghin cu S trn l kho Ngng che ph rng gii hn TT Lu vc nghin cu st thc nghim (% din tch lu vc) s 1 T Trch Thng Nht 9 35 2 Tr Khc Sn Giang 3 30 3 V An Ch 2 40 4. Kt lun 1. Vi vic xp x chi tit khng gian lu vc v tch phn cc phng trnh o hm ring m t cc qu trnh vt l din ra trn lu vc, m hnh KW 1D c kh nng nh gi c nhng thay i trong phm vi nhng khng gian nh trn lu vc n qu trnh hnh thnh dng chy. Tnh bin ng theo khng gian ca hnh dng lu vc, ca cc c tnh thu vn v ma c th d dng c xt n trong m hnh trn. 2. Vi s liu u vo l ma vt thm v cc bn s v t, rng, a hnh vic p dng m hnh c tnh kh thi cao khi nh gi tc ng s thay i ca cc yu t t nhin ti dng

chy. Mt s bin ng no trn mt phn t s c tc ng n ton b h thng v nh hng n dng chy trn sng. C th dng phng php ny nh gi cc quy hoch s dng t i vi vic m bo bn vng ti nguyn nc. 3. Kt qu kho st cc kch bn s dng lp ph rng cho thy m bo tnh cht t nhin ca s hnh thnh l, khng nn khai thc rng ti ngng ti hn che ph ca tng lu vc. 4. Cc kt lun trn c xy dng qua vic kho st mt s trn l, mang ngha v phng php, chng minh kh nng ca m hnh KW - 1D v phng php SCS i vi vic nh gi cc iu kin mt m ln dng chy [3]. Tnh thc tin v chnh xc ca n cn c kim chng vi s lng cc trn l ln hn. Ngoi ra, cn xy dng thm cc kch bn phi hp gia cc yu t mt m khc nh lp ph thc vt, dc, hng sn c cc kt lun chnh xc v chi tit hn, s c bn ti trong cc cng b tip theo. Cc kt qu nghin cu cng b trong bi bo ny c s h tr kinh ph ca ti 705606 thuc Chng trnh NCCB giai on 2006 2008 v ti QG. 07.15. Ti liu tham kho 1. Nguyn Thanh Sn, Lng Tun Anh (2003), "p dng m hnh thu ng hc cc phn t hu hn m t qu trnh dng chy lu vc", Tp ch khoa hc i hc Quc gia H Ni. Khoa hc T nhin v Cng ngh, T.XIX, No1-2003, tr 90-99 2. Nguyn Thanh Sn, Ng Ch Tun (2004) "Kt qu m phng l bng m hnh sng ng hc mt chiu lu vc sng V", Tp ch khoa hc i hc Quc gia H Ni. Khoa hc T nhin v Cng ngh,T.XX, No3 PT-2004 tr. 44-50. 3. Nguyn Thanh Sn (2006), "p dng m hnh 1DKWM FEM & SCS nh gi tc ng ca qu trnh th ha n dng chy l trn mt s sng ngi Min Trung" Tp ch khoa hc i hc Quc gia H Ni. Khoa hc T nhin v Cng ngh, T.XXII, s 2B PT 2006, tr. 149-157, H Ni 4. Nguyn Thanh Sn (2006), "Kt qu m phng l bng m hnh 1DKWM FEM & SCS lu vc sng T Trch trm Thng Nht" Tp ch khoa hc i hc Quc gia H Ni. Khoa hc T nhin v Cng ngh, T.XXII, No 3- 2006 5. Trng Quang Hi, Nguyn Thanh Sn (2006), Kt qu m phng l bng m hnh 1DKWM FEM&SCS lu vc sng Tr Khc trm Sn Giang. Tp ch khoa hc i hc Quc gia H Ni. Khoa hc T nhin v Cng ngh, T.XXII, s 4PT 2006, H Ni. tr 59-68 6. Ross B. B, Contractor D.N and Shanholtz V. O., (1979), "Finite element model of overland and channel flow for assessing the hydrologic impact of land - use change". Journal of Hydrology, (41), p.11-30. 7. Chow YT, Maidment DR, Mays LW. (1988), Applied hydrology. NewYork: McGraw-Hill;