Nat Hazards (2011) 57:3949 DOI 10.

1007/s11069-011-9779-7 ORIGINAL PAPER

Modelling the pore uid diffusion process in aftershock initiation for 2004 Sumatra earthquake: implications for marine geohazard estimation in the Andaman region
Basab Mukhopadhyay Sujit Dasgupta M. Fnais Manoj Mukhopadhyay

Received: 13 November 2009 / Accepted: 4 March 2011 / Published online: 16 March 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Abstract The role of uid injection on the occurrence and migration path for the aftershocks of 2004 Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.3) and January 2005 Andaman earthquake swarm within the aftershock sequence is investigated here from the viewpoint of pore uid diffusion process. The Sumatra earthquake created a regionally extensive crustal rupture plane exceeding 1,200 km length below the Andaman Sea. The rt plots (Shapiro et al. 1997) are constructed for these aftershocks in order to examine the role of poroelastic effects as rupturing progressed with time. Their main results are as follows: the rt plot corresponding to rst 3 h of aftershock activity (when only 44 events of mb C 4.5 originated) reveals that 95% of the data points occurred below the modelled parabola with relatively high D value of 20 m2/s, whereas a signicantly low D value of 3.5 m2/s characterises the aftershock activity for the rst 24 h (when 420 events of mb C 4.0 occurred). Here, the Coulomb stress was transferred from the main shock with a rapid imposition of normal stress, thus inducing the pore-pressure change that started diminishing almost immediately by uid diffusion, at a rate, dened by the diminishing D value. The modelling results for fault seismicity at far off distances from the main epicentre are interpreted here as potential indicators for large-scale sub-seabed rupturingconsequent to stress changes induced by bending of the Indian Ocean plate. Bathymetric slopes under the Andaman subduction zone are particularly amenable to sub-marine slides where crustal EW hinge faults inferred seismically cut across the NS trending regional thrust and strike-slip faults. Seabed rupturing appears to allow deep-slab hydration in these areas, producing pressure gradients along the normal faults. These features are important since they can herald marine geohazards in the Andaman region. Keywords Sumatra earthquake Aftershocks 2005 Andaman swarm Pore-pressure perturbation Marine landslide Hinge fault Andaman subduction zone
B. Mukhopadhyay (&) S. Dasgupta Geological Survey of India, Central Headquarters, 27 J.L. Nehru Road, Kolkata 700106, India e-mail: basabmukhopadhyay@yahoo.com M. Fnais M. Mukhopadhyay Department of Geology and Geophysics, King Saud University, P.O. Box 2455, 11451 Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

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1 Introduction Reactivation of existing faults or rupturing over longer distances by large earthquakes and their aftershocks has pose potential marine geohazards under continental margins. Such aftershocks can originate as well as migrate along rupture plane to far off distances from the main epicentre or are indirectly responsible for sub-marine slides. Large earthquake generates an elastic stress perturbation. Such co-seismic elastic stress perturbation is reected by its aftershocks that can be mapped by Coulomb stress variations; this stress eld is eventually modied by time-dependent visco-elastic relaxation, uid injection and ow. Fluid injections also cause further pore-pressure perturbations, induce strain variations and renewed seismicity. The relaxations of pore pressure under diffusive processes in fractured and saturated rocks are known to form earthquake sequences (Bosl and Nur 2002). The SundaAndaman arc witnessed worlds one of the largest interplate thrust ger and Ohrnberger 2005) on 26 earthquakes, Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.3) (Kru December 2004 at the plate interface between the subducting Indian lithospheric plate, and the overriding Sunda Plate at shallow focal depth that caused a deadly tsunami in the coastal part of Indian Ocean rim countries (Fig. 1). Distribution of its aftershocks denes the rupture area extending from northern Sumatra up to north of the Andaman Islands. The CMT solution published by Harvard (HRVD) indicates thrust faulting along shallow (8) ENE-dipping plane with a strike of 329N. The earthquake has produced a rupture of *1,200 km from north-western Sumatra to north of Andaman Island. The moment ger and Ohrnberger 2005) with average slip of around 710 m magnitude of Mw 9.3 (Kru and varying width of 160240 km of the rupture zone has been modelled (Stein and Okal 2005; Lay et al. 2005). Focal mechanisms of the aftershocks indicate predominant thrust earthquakes in the fore-arc region and strike slip to normal faulting in the back-arc region (Dasgupta et al. 2005). The precursor study carried out by us has identied a 50-day shortterm quiescence with a high b value zone surrounding the epicentre preceding the main shock (Dasgupta et al. 2007). In this paper, our main aim is to look for a relationship between the formation of the aftershocks and swarm sequence within it, and pore-pressure perturbation process generated by shaking of Sumatra Earthquake; reactivation of transverse normal faults and thrusts due to co-seismic pore-pressure change to induce sub-marine slides in the slopes of the Andaman arc; and nally to conduct empirical modelling to trace the locales of those slides.

2 Triggering mechanism initiating the aftershocks of 2004 Sumatra earthquake The triggering mechanism for the aftershocks of 2004 Sumatra earthquake and 2005 Andaman swarm within the aftershock sequence is investigated by considering the role of percolating seawater/rock uids from upper crust to form pore-pressure perturbations. This is done by employing the rt method that is based on the diffusion equation for a point pore-pressure source in a homogeneous and isotropic uid saturated poroelastic medium having specic hydraulic properties. Shapiro et al. (1997, 2002) predict that uid ow may trigger an earthquake at a location r, at any time t, after the pressure perturbation. The distance r of the propagating pore-pressure front from the injection point (that acts as a source with t = 0), with r = H(4pDt), is estimated as a function of time (t). The equation actually denes the enveloping parabola in the rt plot with variable hydraulic diffusivity (D) values, where, seismicity points should lie below the modelled parabolic curve. The

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Fig. 1 a Tectonic map of SumatraAndaman region with 420 aftershocks (in blue circles with variable size) occurred during rst 24 h after the Great AndamanSumatra Earthquake (26th December 2004; 0 h: 58 Min: 53.45 Sec; Mw 9.3) and earthquakes related to 2005 Andaman swarm (red circles). Note that 2005 swarm quakes occurred where it was previously ruptured during aftershock propagation in overriding plate. b and c Frequency magnitude relationships for 44 events of mb C 4.5 for rst 3 h and 420 events of mb C 4.0 for rst 24 h of aftershock propagation of AndamanSumatra Earthquake. See the catalogue is complete above magnitude 4.5 and 4.0 for respective time frame. B Barren, N Narcondam, SFS Sumatra Fault System, ASR Andaman Spreading Ridge and WAF West Andaman Fault

D is scalar; whose value depends on permeability (k), uniaxial specic storage coefcient (S) and viscosity of the uid (l) by the equation D = k/(lS) (Kuempel 1991; Wang 2000). On the contrary, if the earthquake triggering occurs shortly after the pore-pressure perturbations (Noir et al. 1997), we should observe a narrow cluster of seismicity along the line of the modelled parabola in the rt plot with variable scalar D values. The D value in the earths crust usually ranges between 0.1 and 10 m2/s (Shapiro et al. 1999) but can even reach up to 90 m2/s (Antonioli et al. 2005). The rt plots for both these major events, namely December 2004 Sumatra Earthquake and January 2005 Andaman swarm, are discussed below.

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2.1 The rt plots for aftershocks of December 2004 Sumatra earthquake Only 44 aftershocks of mb C 4.5 in the magnitude range of 4.55.9 occurred during the rst 3 h after the Sumatra Earthquake. It is generally visualised that within the rst tens of minutes or hours soon after the occurrence of a moderate/large event, it is very difcult to retrieve the early aftershocks, even though they may be quite large in numbers. In case of Sumatra Earthquake, earthquake events below the magnitude 4.5 were not registered in the catalogue during the rst 3 h time. The Log (cumulative number, N)magnitude (mb) curve (Fig. 1b) over the magnitude (mb [ 4.5) is smooth and follow straight-line segment. This indicates that all earthquakes above magnitude 4.5 were detected as per the G-R law. The catalogue is thus by and large complete above magnitude 4.5 within the rst 3 h time frame that has been used to construct the rt plot. Further, after 3 h, many aftershock events with magnitude 4.0 and above have been detected all along the rupture zone from Sumatra to north of Andaman Island. A total 420 aftershocks of mb C 4.0 in the magnitude range 4.06.2 were detected over the rst 24 h (ISC catalogue) (Fig. 1). The spatial variation of aftershock magnitudes in relation with the known tectonic planes is also illustrated in the gure. The Log(N)mb over the magnitude (mb [ 4.0) is again smooth and tag along straight line following the G-R relationship (Fig. 1c). Hence, the catalogue is in general complete above magnitude 4.0 within the rst 24 h time frame that is subjected to further analysis. In this scheme, the rt plot basically represents spatial distance r of an individual event from the injection point as a function of time t. An unambiguously dened injection point source, which corresponds to the origin of the graph at time 0, is therefore a pre-requisite for calculation purpose (Shapiro et al. 1997). The injection point from which the uid diffusion starts in the case of rst 3 h as well as for 24 h0 period is identied as the epicentral location of the main shock (Date 26/12/2004, 0 h: 58 Min: 53.45 Sec, Latitude 3.41N, Longitude 95.90E, Mw 9.3) from where the rupture actually begins to propagate (for further explanation on injection point, refer Shapiro et al. 1997, 2002, 2003). The location of this injection point is identied in Fig. 1 by a black star. The rt plot for rst 3 h seismic data indicates that majority of the data points (42 out of 44) occurred below the modelled parabola with relatively high scalar diffusivity value (D = 20 m2/s) (Fig. 2a). It is interesting to note that the entire plate interface (with rupture length 1,200 km ? and width 160240 km) has been ruptured within the rst hour of aftershock propagation (Dasgupta et al. 2005), and pore-pressure perturbation front was active to generate aftershocks located along the entire rupture zone from Sumatra to north of Andaman Island. In the subsequent hours, the pore-pressure perturbation front was restricted within the rupture area (length 1,200 km ? and width 160240 km) only and therefore, no increase in the length (r) of propagating porepressure front in the plots (Fig. 2). Further, the corresponding rt plot for the entire dataset spanning the rst 24 h of aftershock activity (Fig. 2b) indicates no further increase in pore-pressure perturbation length (r) as discussed above, but the pore uid diffusion process was highly active within the entire rupture area (rupture length 9 width) in multiple locales that has been manifested by subsequent occurrences of aftershocks with variable pore-pressure perturbation length. But this pore-pressure perturbation length is thus always less than or even equal to the entire rupture length of 1,200 km. The plot also indicates scaling down of poroelastic perturbations with relatively low scalar diffusivity (D = 3.5 m2/s). Hence, the latter D value is taken as the representative value for the entire Andaman subduction zone.

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Fig. 2 rt plot of the aftershock sequence, a 44 aftershocks of rst 3 h with modelled parabolic envelope of diffusivity (D = 20 m2/s) and b 420 aftershocks of rst 24 h with modelled parabolic envelope of diffusivity (D = 3.5 m2/s)

2.2 rt plot for January 2005 Andaman swarm A total of 651 tremors between 26 and 31 January 2005 (mb C 3.9 to 5.9, NEIC catalogue) are recorded at crustal to sub-crustal depths. The 2005 Andaman swarm quakes occurred where it was previously been ruptured during aftershock propagation of Sumatra Earthquake in the overriding Andaman plate (Fig. 1). Major pulses with more than 200 events/ day were noted during 2728 January 2005. The 2005 swarm locates in an area of bathymetric depression (Fig. 3) and within high-gravity zone (bathymetric and gravity data taken from Smith and Sandwell 1997; Sandwell and Smith 2009). Note that 2005 swarm quakes occurred where it was previously ruptured during aftershock propagation in overriding plate (Fig. 1). The swarm is regarded as the instrumentally recorded most energetic swarm ever observed globally (Lay et al. 2005). The swarm further produced 90 more earthquakes in the magnitude range of mb, 4.05.9, during the period from February to August 2005 but with a much lower rate. We have reported elsewhere that the frequencymagnitude distribution of the swarm earthquakes has dominant frequency peaks in the magnitude range of 4.55.2. The swarm cluster is also of oval shape with an aspect ratio of 2.75 (length 110 km/width 40 km), and its b value is around 1.83 (Mukhopadhyay and Dasgupta 2008). Eruption of the Barren Volcano in central Andaman Sea eventually took place in MayJune 2005 following the swarm activity. The swarm demonstrates a complex faulting series: initially with strike-slip motion followed by normal faulting in periodic successions whose representative fault planes orient at high angle to the regional faults. The swarm character as well as the distribution of stress axes and their correlation with tectonic features lend speculation for formation/activation of a nascent rift in NWSE direction at the doorstep of the Sewell Seamount (Mukhopadhyay et al. 2010). The injection point referred in the foregoing section from which the uid diffusion starts is identied as the epicentral location of the rst earthquake (Date 26/1/2005, 3 h: 38 Min:

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Fig. 3 Earthquake distribution of 2005 Andaman swarm around 8 latitude with bathymetric coloured contours. The gravity values as blue contours in mgal values are given. Black star denes the injection point; refer text. WAF West Andaman Fault, SFS Sumatra Fault System, NFS Netaji Fault System and SR Sewell Rise

13 Sec, Latitude 7.87N, Longitude 94.08E) that occurred in the 2005 Andaman swarm (black star in Fig. 3). Hence, the rt plot has been constructed by taking the location of rst earthquake in the swarm as the injection point. The rt plot for D values of 10 m2/s for earthquakes of 2005 Andaman swarm follows the parabolic equations (Fig. 4), where the swarm relates to the diffusion of pore-pressure perturbations in a poroelastic uid-saturated medium. The time-dependent perturbation is produced by co-seismic stress change. Here, the migration of seismicity is consistent with pore-pressure relaxationwhat is known for other intra-plate earthquake swarms (Parotidis et al. 2003).

3 Pore-pressure changes in relation to subduction zone hinge faults: implications for sub-marine slides In this section, we will discuss (1) the disposition of EW normal faults across the Andaman subduction zone, (2) how the elevated pore pressure due to the shaking of Sumatra earthquake, its aftershocks and swarm have reactivated the existing fault planes and induced probable sub-marine slides along those weak planes and (3) empirical modelling to nd the locales of those slides.

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Nat Hazards (2011) 57:3949 Fig. 4 rt plot of the 2005 Andaman swarm sequence with modelled parabolic envelope of diffusivity (D = 10 m2/s)

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(1) In our earlier work, the plate conguration of the Andaman subduction zone was constrained by earthquake data (mb C 4.0) between the time period 1964 and 2005. Available data are utilised to draw as many as fteen 2D seismic depth sections across the Andaman trench axis. This permits to gure out the outline the disposition of plates and Benioff zone. The angles of Benioff zone trajectories in the sections vary from 30 to 57. The top surface of the Benioff zone is extrapolated from the trajectories in the 2D depth sections and contoured at an interval of 25 km (Fig. 5) (see Dasgupta et al. 2003; Mukhopadhyay et al. 2009 for the detailed methodology, gures related to 2D seismic depth sections and analysis). From the constriction, overlap of structural contours and mismatch focal plane solutions (normal and strike slip) in an overall thrust domain; lithospheric EW trending normal (hinge) faults with xed western end (9 in numbers; f1 to f9) have been identied and marked across the Benioff Zone (Fig. 5). (2) It is known from the analyses and rt plots from earlier sections that elevated pore pressure triggers the aftershock sequences including 2005 swarm following the Sumatra Earthquake. It is also known that elevated pore pressure in an active seismic belt decreases the frictional resistance and subsequently promote occurrences of landslide along structurally weak planes (fault zones). These weak planes are present in the upper crustal part of the subducting Indian plate in Andaman area where deep-seated normal faults (originated from slab bending) cut across the trench zone. Elevated pore-pressure front resulting from the shaking of the Sumatra Earthquake and its aftershocks, as manifested by the rt plots (Figs. 2, 4) have produced sites for seabed rupturing and/or their consequent sub-marine slides. The locales of these potential slides can be inferred emperically where the EW normal faults cut across the NS trending well-dened thrust planes or strike slip faults dipping away from the trench, present in the fore arc. These mantle penetrating normal faults, developed cutting across the subducting slabs are believed to act as conduits for sea water movement. Numerical modelling indicates that pressure gradients resulting from the bending of slabs may then drive the water deep into their interior (Billen 2009). These normal (hinge) faults, with a xed western end showing predominant gravity movement, deform the top part of the bending Indian Ocean plate with negative pressure gradients and favour downward pumping of uids (see Faccenda et al. 2009 for the mechanism). The uids then react with the crust and mantle materials surrounding the faults and are stored in the form of hydrous minerals. Increase in temperature and pressure at depth causes metamorphic reactions and release of the trapped water, induction of pore pressure that induce brittle deformation and generation of earthquakes all along the length and breadth

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Fig. 5 Lithospheric barrier faults present in Andaman subduction zone (after Dasgupta et al. 2003). Structural depth contour representing the top surface of the subducting Indian Plate is imaged through the 2D seismic depth sections (Mukhopadhyay et al. 2009). Nine lithospheric hinge faults (f1 through f9) have been interpreted. Transverse orientation of the faults to the strike of the arc suggests for contortions affecting the subducting lithosphere. D and U indicate up-thrown and down-thrown blocks with respect to that particular fault. Star indicates volcano. N Narcondam Island, B Barren Island, ASR Andaman Spreading Ridge, SFS Sumatra Fault System, WAF West Andaman Fault and MR Margui Ridge

of the Benioff Zone. Periodic changes in pore pressure at depth along these fault planes promote failure as per Coulomb criteria. Further, the sudden release of shear stress in the form of seismic waves along the rupture plane generated by Sumatra Earthquake and movements along these hinge fault planes are likely to bring the rock particles in closer contact, reduces the dilated space and injects the trapped pore uid upward in the top part of the fault (least pressure zone). These renewed pore-pressure front (Figs. 2, 4) cause failure along these fault planes and subsequently weaken the crust and are liable to generate sub-marine slides that pose potential threat to offshore civil installations. In fact, available swath bathymetric data acquired by the Sumatra Aftershocks Cruise from the Sunda trench to the north of the Sumatra Island (Sultan et al. 2009) imaged several such locales with scars and landslide-related deposits generated due to pore-pressure changes by shaking of the Sumatra Earthquake.

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(3) Further, the top surface of the bending Indian Ocean plate under the Andaman subduction zone has the appearance of deep-seated depressions outlined by transverse normal (hinge) faults. Such hinge faults identied and labelled as f1 through f9 in Figs. 5 and 6 transect the trench axis and the thrust planes along Andaman fore arc. The interaction zones between these two cross-cutting fault systems have the appearance of elongated transverse depressions by repeated gravity slides, which also form possible gullies for marine sediment transport. Their origin evidently emanates from the typical disposition and bending of the down-going Indian Ocean plate below the Andaman arc that is convex westward. Structural details of the hinge faults are obscured at the moment but they act as weak zones affected by repeated seismic outbursts of primarily thrust and normal motion, with subordinate strike-slip movement. The inux of sudden gush of sediment-bearing slurries (mainly of oceanic origin) along these weak zones being churned up by seismic waves promotes small sub-marine slides, deposition of landslide-related sediments and its reworking. Mapping of convergent margin by Swath bathymetry and seabed photography in offshore Sumatra has revealed seabed failure of small scale (comprised of debris avalanches and sediment ows) instead of large landslides otherwise has been expected after 2004 Sumatra Earthquake (Tappin et al. 2007). The sediment ow has been attributed to small amount of ocean-derived sediment load (with no terrestrial component) in this part of the Indian Ocean. Repeat bathymetric and seismic surveys at periodic intervals are therefore needed to monitor sediment transport and sub-marine slides at the suggested locations for geo-marine hazard modelling. Due to high hydrostatic pressure along these fault zones, the pore pressure generated by trapped uids within the sub-marine slides or their related sediment deposits clearly increases manifold. However, further discussion on modelling the fault zones for deep-slab-hydration at the Andaman subduction zone is beyond the scope of the present study.

Fig. 6 Three-dimensional representation for the top surface of the Andaman Benioff Zone showing the transverse hinge faults on the basis of seismicity mapping discussed in text. Potential zones for sub-marine slides at the interface between N and S thrusts and transverse faults are marked by red closed polygons

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4 Conclusions The foregoing analysis of rt plots brings out basic differences in the spatio-temporal migration character of seismicity observed during the rst 24 h of the onset of aftershocks, which are believed to have caused by pore-pressure perturbations. During the Coulomb stress transfer after the main shock, the rapid imposition of normal stress has induced a pore-pressure change. This pore-pressure change has immediately begun to diminish by uid diffusion at a rate dened by scalar hydraulic diffusivity of the system. We estimated the initial scalar diffusivity of 20 m2/s during the rupture propagation process. During rupturing and fault unclamping, the static friction had increased with time, and diffusivity was very high due to rapid advancement of rupture and availability of more interconnected large fracture spaces. Subsequently, the diffusivity was modelled to an average 3.5 m2/s due to pore-pressure relaxation by co-seismic stress changes. The pore-pressure relaxation has caused the aftershock sequence and controlled its spatio-temporal pattern. During this relaxation period, the 2005 Andaman swarm has occurred. The diffusivity has been increased again, which is modelled with the value 10 m2/s, due to pore-pressure relaxation by co-seismic stress changes in a limited area around 80 latitude. From this, it can be inferred that the future rupturing in this subduction zone can be primarily controlled by pore-pressure diffusion mechanism, which may trigger marine slides. The empirical modelling results demonstrate that intersection of hinge faults and arcparallel thrusts forms zones of cross-fault interactions and depressions amenable to submarine slides generated from periodic seismic activity. The zones of seabed rupturing appear to allow deep-slab hydration in these areas, producing pore-pressure gradients along the hinge faults and subsequent failure to generate sea-bed slides of smaller scale in probable locales (Fig. 6). Further studies are, however, warranted to improve the present understanding on fault kinematics for the Andaman Islands, swath bathymetry to understand the zones of present day marine landslide and empirical model to nd out future areas for the same. It will be prudent to model the movement of those active faults present along the coast to prepare sub-marine slide hazard estimation to prevent damage to offshore installations and port structures, coastal geomorphology and biodiversity.
Acknowledgments We thank Dr. V. Schenk, Editor in Chief for his valuable comments on an earlier version of the manuscript. We are also thankful to two erudite anonymous reviewers whose suggestions have been of good help.

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