Country Analysis (A) Jun Wang 1.

. What year does China overtake the United States in nominal GDP, US $, according to your calculations (if it does)? What factors drive its growth? In my calculation, Chinas GDP overtakes the U.S. in 2020. Chinas rapid and continuous urbanisation especially inland Chinas urbanisation due to governments beneficial policies will be the main drive for GDP growth. There are a lot of towns in inland China are under developed with a large population. Chinese government five-year plan continuously give those small towns beneficial policies to help them to develop together with rapid infrastructure development in inland China will be a significant drive for GDP growth. Secondly, Chinas massive investment in education will be another drive. Chinese people are required to accept 9 years mandatory education from primary school to middle school. Plus the rising middle class keep sending their children to abroad to accept higher education. More educated people are entering Chineses labour market with high skills. These people will bring more efficiency and productivity for the labour market. In addition, slow transition from manufacturing industries to service industries could be a potential drive for the growth. Even with rapid growth in service industry, it still lags behind the demand generated by the nations fast economic growth and that of developed economies. Chinas service industry is becoming more diversified than before and many multinational companies in service industry are testing waters in China at the moment. Also foreign direct investment in service industry will continue to surge and more will turn to businesses that meet domestic consumption demands.

2. Where is India at the end of the simulation in the world ranking? In my simulation, Indias GDP reached to 9,316 at 5 place in year 2027. Indias massive investment in education boosts a unique culture of entrepreneurship and innovation, together with global IT service industry have been the main drive for Indias continuous growth.
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