,

(feasibility study)

a. (NPV)
b.
c.

-()
-

P1

P2

(+)

(cash How)
(-)

C1 C 2 C 3

(IRR)

a.()
n

F = P (1 + i )

FFuture Value ; I, P

NPV (i) = - C 0 +

P1 C1
(1+ i )

+ - - - - - - + P C5
5

(1+ i )

[ P5 C 5 = X (1+i) ] x

b. IRR
NPV(5%) = 1200
NPV(IRR) = 0

IRR
1200

NPV(12%) = -50
-50

12

IRR k +
5 + 6
k
()

c. NPV(i)
NPV = PC

ROI =

P
C

3 = 31

4
=

12

6
=
2

15
5

P 3, 6, 15
C 1, 2, 5

i j

()

= (1 + i) (1 + j) 1= i + j + i * j
i 365
= ( 1 + 365 ) 1
i 1 + + i 12 i
i

i i 365 12
i i 365 4

()

A
B C
0.2 0.4 0.4
9

2
3
4

, ( 5-7 ) scoring

9, 7, 3
A,B,C

100 50 = 50

()

A,C

B,D

E,F

* ()

A
B

()

C
D

G
B

6
3

10

13 14

20

ADM AOD

PDM AON
CDM GERT
A : Arrow
P : Precedence
C : Conditional Diagonoring Method

( 3, 4, 3,2, )
3
4

3
2

10

AON

12

15

AOA
A

B
A

4
C

Cost
6
3

3
8

10

12

15

8
Baseline

resource leveling

 (float)
,
activity
.


1.,

2.,
,
3.,,,


1.
,

2.
,

3.
,

Total Float
,activity

LS ES LF-EF

Free Float
Earliest Start
activityES - activityEF

Interference Float
activityES

activity - activity

()

A,C

B,D

E,F

* ()

* AON

Forward Computation ( ES = EFi )

i+1

ES

EF
0 0
Start
0 0

LS

LF

3 10
C .7

0 3
A .3
0 3

3 10

0 5
B. 5
1 6

5 8
D. 3
6 9

E : Earliest
L: Last
LF i-1 = LS i

8 13
F. 5
9 14

10 14
E .4
10 14

14 20
G .6
14 20

20 20
End
20 20

 for ES.EF
0 3
A .3
0 3

0 0
Start
0 0

Forward
Computation

3 10
C .7
3 10
10 14
E .4
10 14

0 5
B. 5
1 6

5 8
D. 3
6 9

Backward
computation
for LS.LF

14 20
G .6
14 20
8 13
F. 3
9 14

20 20
End
20 20

*critical path TF=0,A C E G

* AOA
A[0, 3]

C[3, 10]
2

3[ 0, 3 ]

7[ 3, 10]

E[10, 14]
4[ 10, 14]

G[14, 20]
6[ 14, 20]

AOA/AON

D[5, 8]
3[ 6, 9 ]
9

AOA
| AON

|
FS
| FS,FF,SS,SF
|
3

Node arrow,

43,23
forward computation and backward computation

Critical Path Method

A fixed time estimate for an activity


- disttribution
M: most likelihood

O
3

M
5

P
10

80 % work ,20 % do other things.

This is a problem about efficency.

 distribution
=
=

=2 (
O

O+4M+P
6
P-O
6
P-O
6

AOA,
- =

()
a A 2 aE 2 aF 2 aG 2

AOA Comments
Activity On Arrow (AOA) is an activity
sequencing tool and also known as Arrow
Diagramming Method (ADM). Activity
sequence diagrams uses arrows to
represent the activities and connects to
the related activities.
This is a least preferred activity
sequencing method due to its limitation of
supporting only Finish-Start dependancy.

PERT
Program Evaluation and Review
Technique
An event-oriented network analysis
technique used to estimate project
duration when there is a high degree of
uncertainty with the individual activity
duration estimates.

Usefulness of PERT
simplifing the planning and scheduling of large
and complex projects.
able to incorporate uncertainty by making it
possible to schedule a project while not knowing
precisely the details and durations of all the
activities.
an event-oriented technique rather than startand completion-oriented.
used more in R&D-type projects where time,
rather than cost, is the major factor.

Weakness of PERT
Underestimate the time for project
completion
Because of the critical path may change
when some other activities dealy

* CDM-GERT (Conditional Diagram Method)

5,1.0
A
1

3,1.0

4
E

4,0.8

B
2

4,1.0

D
3

G
6,0.1

(1)
(2)

5,0.1
5,1.0

*
- Critical Path, AFGHC

4
D

8
E

5
G

DAGB

7
H

start
Share
A
resource 6

F
7
D,4

8
C
end

B
5
E,8

Share
resource
30

A,6

F,7

38

GERT
Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique
GERT

GERT

ORAND

10

10

16
20

16

16

Project buffer
()

Feeding buffer
8

= 56

16

10

28

EV
(1) Fixed Formula
0 ~ 100 ( 100% )
25 ~ 75 ( 25% )
50 ~ 50 ( 50% )

A,B,C
formula
0 ~ 100

25 ~ 75

50 ~ 50

3
4
5
0
0

125
125

125
250

(2) Milestone weights (earned)

20%

10%

100

earnedmile
stone

B
120

B
EV
EV

0
0

100
100

120
220

* Milestones,AB milestone

(3) Milestone weights with % complete

100-20
EV

20

92

108

EV

20

112

220

92 = 80+120*10 %
108 = 120*90 %= 120-12

20%10% the percentage of completion

( % )

(4) unit complete

15

20

PV

1500

2000

500

117 EV=17*100=1700

40
100
PV = 1500

(5) percent complete ()

30%
100

150

120

20%

80%

5
4

EV

30

100

216 24

EV

30

130

346 370

activity
216
=120*80%+150*80%
100 = 70 + 30
100*30%

150*20%

A,B,C((1)(2)(3)(4)(5))
porcentage

* ( impact )

0.1
2

10

10

12

18

24

30

0.2

0.4

7
9

*
2. threshold

1.0

1.20%

0.8

* (reserve)
C , T
C + C
T + T

Ccost reserve
T time reserve

(Monte Carlo)

C,

- 1000 + 200(1+ 2)

- 1+ 2
-
- contingency reserve PM , reserve

* workaround ,
* Fall back plan

* riskuncertainty?
- risk pdf

- uncertainty pdf

* QFD ? Quality function deployment ()

* deadlinedelay Time pressure
delay Dont care

* 5 ?
1.
2.
3.()
4.
5.

* Quality function deployment ?

1.5 = 5* 0.2+1* 0.5

20%

30%

50%

1.5
1.5 / 5.9

0.8

3.6

0.8 / 5.9 3.6 / 5.9

Match

1.5/5.9

0.8/5.9

3.6/3.9

* PM ()

*
a.missing man ()
b.deadline
c.

d.delay

* aggressive,(), ?
(1)

(2)
(3) (active listening)
(4) ()

Memo
E-mail

-------

* 90%
* ()
* , (2hr)
*

1. ()

2. ()

3. ()

a. X ()
b. Y ()
c. Z ()

d. (,;
,)
e. ()

money

* Maslow

*
1. legimate
2. reward (reward)

3. Corcive (penalty)
4. expert
5. Referent ()

1. Problem solving (confrontation)

2.compromising ()

3.withdraw ()
4.smoothing ()

5.forcing() ()

RFP

()
1. = 1000 (1000)
2. = 200(1000,200)
3. = 1200
(1000,200,200)
4. = 1400 (14001400)

(Ceiling price)
5. = 20 / 80
(share ratio)

1000

()
*

(1) 800
0.2 (1000-800) + 200 = 240
800 + 200 + 40 = 1040
(2) 1300
100
1400
(3) 1400

100
1400

1400
(4) 1500
-100 ()
1400(1400)
(5) 1100
200
1300


$130,000
$15,000 $145,000
$160,000 80/20
$150,000
ANS: 160000
160000-150000=10000

(CPPC)
$120,000 10%
$130,000
ANS :
130000 + 130000x10%=143000
1: $120,000
2: Cost-Plus-Percentage of Cost
(CPPC)


(CPIF) $150,000
$15,000 80/20
$130,000

ANS:
13000015000020000
20000x20%=4000
150000 + 4000=19000
:cost plus incentive fee (CPIF)

* SOW (statement of work )

(1) function ()
(2) performance ()
(3) Design ()

(1)
(3)

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)

* PM ()

*
a.missing man ()
b.deadline
c.

d.delay

* aggressive,(), ?
(1)

(2)
(3) (active listening)
(4) ()


230
2553010
5 %
ANS:
NPV(0.05)=-30 + 20/(1+0.05) +
20/(1+0.05)(1+0.05)
7.2



ANS :
0.05 r=0.05/365, 20
365, p=20/365 , NPV,
570(1.56),NPV,
1.56.
:

Javascript
var r=0.05/365;
var p=20/365;
var total=0.0;
for (var i=1;i<=570;i++) {
total=total + p/Math.pow((1+r),i);
}
alert(total);

log

a Co Ir

y
log (1 Ir)

y =
a =
Co =
Ir =

G=20/(20-30X0.05)
H=1+0.05
y=log(G)/log(H)=1.58

PV=5000, EV=5250, AC=5500, BAC=25000

SV=EV-PV=250CV=EV-AC=-250,
CPI=5250/5500=0.9545
ETCEAC
(1)1.0,
ETC = BAC EV =25000-5250=19750
EAC=AC + ETC=25250
(2)
ETC = (BAC EV)/CPI=20690
EAC=AC + ETC= 20690 + 5500=26190
(3), ETC = (BAC-EV) + ?
EAC= AC + (BAC EV) + ? = 25250 + ?
EAC 26315

84
:

PV

AC

EV

1000

1000

1000

3000

2000

2500

5000

5000

6000

7000

9000

7000

13000

17000

19000

20000

slideEAC
CPI = EV/AC =7/9
ETC= (BAC-EV)/CPI
=(20000-7000) /(7/9)=16714
EAC=AC+ETC= 25714
BAC/CPI

slide

5
500

EV
earnvalue
EV7000

Critical Chain

A(3)B(4)
C(4)A
D(5)AB
AB

Critical Path

Critical Path
activity
BAD critical Chain

A3

A. A-C
B. A-D
C. B-D
D.


A6
critical pathAD
AB,A,AB,
critical chain ABD

ADcritical path