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Doe Robust Parameter Doe Robust Parameter 1233575961497364 2
Doe Robust Parameter Doe Robust Parameter 1233575961497364 2
Vijay Nair
Factorial and fractional factorial designs (1930+) Agriculture Sequential designs (1940+) Defense
Response surface designs for process optimization (1950+) Chemical Robust parameter design for variation reduction (1970+) Manufacturing and Quality Improvement Virtual (computer) experiments using computational models (1990+) Space, Automotive, Semiconductor, Aircraft,
A key technology for optimizing product and process design and for quality and reliability (Q&R) improvement Systematically investigate a system's inputoutput relationship to:
Improve the process (Q&R) Identify the important design parameters Optimize product or process design Achieve robust performance Conduct accelerated stress studies for reliability prediction
Want to know: Effect of input parameters? Is A important? How to manipulate A and B to optimize E(Y)? How sensitive is the optimum to changes in A and B and noises? Where in the A-B region should we conduct reliability stress tests? How to extrapolate reliability results to the design conditions?
A key technology for optimizing product and process design and for quality and reliability (Q&R) improvement Systematically investigate a system's input-output relationship to
Used extensively in manufacturing industries since 1980s Part of basic training programs such as Sixsigma
Week 2
Review Capability Multivariate Analysis Topics in Statistics Introduction to DOE Single Factor Experiments
Week 3
Full Factorial 2^k Factorials Fractional Factorials Planning Experiments EVOP Adv. Meas. Systems
Week 4
Advanced Multivariate Multiple Regression Response Surface Control Plans Control Systems Quality Function Dep.
If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment Lord Rutherford
Process improvement looking for a quick solution Variable search (Shainin),, One-factor-at-a-time, Fractional factorial, Super-saturated designs) Screening identify important factors from among many (Pareto principle) typically 2-level FFDs Product/process optimization Response surface designs Achieving robustness Taguchis robust parameter designs Reliability assessment and prediction Accelerated stress test experiments Virtual/Computer Experiments Latin hypercube, spacefilling, designs Sequential designs
Complex Complex Data Data Structure Structure Curves, Curves, Spatial Spatial Objects, Objects,
Analog signals for 6 test conditions (Drive, Coast, Float, Tip-In/Tip-Out at 64 and 72 miles, Coast Engine Off) 3 runs per test 3 Vibration signals per run 4 microphones signals per run
Worn Bearing
Virtual/Computer Experiments
Use of computational modeling and simulation in product and process design is now very common Design and analysis of computer experiments in very highdimensional problems raises many interesting challenges: Design strategies Criteria? Randomness? Goals: Understand important factors? Response surface approximation? Optimization? Modeling and analysis: Use of traditional models? Model Validation
Signal Factors s
Product/Process
Noise Factors z
Goal: Choose design factor settings to optimize performance and make system insensitive to variation in noise factors Cost-effective approach
How?
Y = f( x; s; z )
Exploit interactions between control factors (x) and noise factors (z) to find settings of x that achieve robustness while also trying to get good average performance. If f(.) is known, this is a regular optimization problem. In practice, f(.) unknown, so use physical experimentation.
Product Array
Can estimate all CXN interactions
Control Factors: A cycle time, B mold temp, C cavity thickness, D holding pressure, E injection speed, F holding time, G gas size Noise Factors: M - % regrind, N - moisture content, O ambient temp.
Nominal-the-best target value T Expected squared error loss = Two-stage optimization process:
Estimate SN-ratio and identify important dispersion effects x; Choose x to minimize the (estimated) SN-ratio Use adjustment factors a to get mean on target
Analysis
Gear System
Response: Output torque Signal: Input torque Control Factors: Gear material Number of teeth Type of contact Noise Factors: Run-out Type of lubrication Aging
Before 1980 Japan, India, Bell Labs (~1962; Tukey; SN-ratio) Taguchis visit to Bell Labs in 1980 *** Activities since then:
AT&T, Ford, Xerox, etc North America, Europe, Asia ASI, Taguchi Symposia, ... Bell Labs Mohonk Conferences (1984) QPRC NSF-funded project 1986 visit Impact in Japan CJQCA Quality Progress article Many documented examples of cost savings and process improvements (American Supplier Institute and Taguchi Symposia Case Studies).
Window photolithography
4-fold reduction in process variance 2-fold reduction in processing time
Film photo-resist
Reduced drop-out rate by 50%
Circuit design Wave soldering, optimum solder flux formulation Router Bit Life Improvement UNIX System Response Time Optimization
1986
@ Taguchis House
Introduce (?) robustness in process/product design and development Emphasis on loss vs specifications Identify sources of variation upfront:
-- manufacturing, customer/environment, usage,
Systematically introduce and study the effects of noise factors in off-line investigations Use this information to reduce the effect of uncontrollable noise factors
Use DOE to study the effect of control and noise factors novel use Emphasis on dispersion AND location effects Emphasis on functionality instead of symptoms (ideal function, etc.) Engineering view of DOE mostly one-shot vs iterative; use of confirmation experiments
Impact on Industry
Widespread recognition of the importance of robustness for variation reduction and quality improvement Beyond parameter design qualitative
Eg., Ford Engineering Process development and manufacturing of robust products and processes use of systematic approach and training
Extensive (re)-introduction, training, and use of DOE under the guise of Taguchi Methods in manufacturing industries Shainins methods, DFSS, etc. Introduction of robustness and DOE in other industries (medical technology, software, )
Emphasis on loss functions squared error Classification of problems: Nominal-the-best, smaller-the better, larger-the better, dynamic, Analysis SN ratios and two-step optimization loss function Various methods of analysis: accumulation, minute, dynamic Designs -- Product arrays, OAs L_18
Designs -- Product arrays, OAs L_18 Product (crossed) array vs Combined array
Product array allows all c x n interactions Can get better designs or smaller run size using combined arrays Eg. 4 control and 2 noise 32 run PA but still only resolution III in control factors Combined array 32 runs Resolution VI or 16 runs with Resolution IV
Nominal-the-best target value T Expected squared error loss = Two-stage optimization process: ***
Estimate SN-ratio and identify important dispersion effects x; Choose x to minimize the (estimated) SN-ratio Use adjustment factors a to get mean on target
Similar for dynamic problems References: In Panel Discussion (Nair, 1992), Wu and Hamada (2001), Techno and JQT since then.
PerMIA
Mathematical formulation of two-stage optimization and development for various problems and loss functions
(Leon et al. 1987)
GLM
Dual Response
Transformations
Variance-stabilizing transformations with no dispersion effects: log-transformation
Use of Box-Cox transformations even with dispersion effects Diagnostic: Mean-variance plot on log-log scale:
Use slope to estimate Advantages: Not tied to particular loss function More general: Does not assume gamma = 2 Data-analytic: estimate gamma from the data Response surface for mean more likely to be linear in transformed space
Use Extended Quasi-Likelihood criterion (Nelder and Pregibon, 1987) Iterate between mean and dispersion models More general Problem same as before estimating V (mu) and g (mu),
Remarks
Taguchis SN-ratios have implicit assumptions and have limited validity SN-ratio and PerMIA analyses are based on loss functions
Loss functions hard to specify a priori Will depend on the data metric (original vs log, )
Two-stage optimization Why not estimate mean and variance and optimize? Transformation and GLM based approaches more useful Joint modeling and estimation of location and dispersion effects intrinsically a difficult problem
More generally, Treat noise factors as fixed and absorb into structural model: Y (x) = f (control factors) + g (noise factors) + h (CxN interactions) +
Estimate effects of control and noise factors and CxN interactions Use fitted model with location and dispersion effects to determine optimal settings for robustness and target. Analysis more efficient treat noise factors as fixed exploit structure of noise array -1 +1 Factor A
Noise = Temp
Other Areas
Dynamic problems
Functional response Signal-response systems
Research
Considerable research to understand and improve on Taguchis methods for design and analysis More analysis than design Future?