Oleh: DR.AriesMuftie,SE.,SH.,MH.

Greediness&consumerism: ShaniaTwainsenciety
Whenyourebrokegoandgetaloan Takeoutanothermortgageonyourhome Consolidatesoyoucanafford Togoandspendsomemorewhen Yougetbored Allweeverwantismore Alotmorethanwehadbefore Sotakemetotheneareststore [repeatchorus] Letsswing Di d Dig deeperin i yourpocket k t Oh,yeah,ha ComeonIknowyouvegotit Digdeeperinyourwallet Oh Allweeverwantismore Alotmorethanwehadbefore Sotakemetotheneareststore [ [repeat chorus] h ] Canyouhearitring Itmakesyouwannasing Youlllivelikeaking Withlotsofmoneyandthings Kaching!

KaChing

Weliveinagreedylittleworld Thatteacheseverylittleboyandgirl Toearnasmuchastheycanpossibly Thenturnaroundand p itfoolishly y Spend Wevecreatedusacreditcardmess Wespendthemoneythatwedontpossess Ourreligionistogoandblowitall Soitsshoppineverysundayatthemall

Allweeverwantismore Alotmorethanwehadbefore Sotakemetotheneareststore

[ [chorus:] ] Canyouhearitring Itmakesyouwannasing Itssuchabeautifulthingkaching! Lotsofdiamondrings ehappiness appi e i itbrings i g The Youlllivelikeaking Withlotsofmoneyandthings

Agenda

Latar Belakang a. Krisis Global b. Dampak terhadap Indonesia c. EthicalEconomic( (Maqasid q alSharia) )

II

Karakteristik &Prospek Ekonomi di Indonesia

a. b. c.

Sejarah Economi & Bisnis Sistem Keuangan Inklusif atau Creative Micronomics

III

Apa YangHarus KitaLakukan?

IV

Ekspektasi

I.

LATAR BELAKANG

I. Latar Belakang

a.GlobalCrisis

Source:IMF,Nov2008,BSMsource

GlobalEconomicSlowdown 2

I. Back Ground

a.GlobalCrisis

SebagianbesarhutangAS berasaldariluarAS,sehingga k i i diASakan krisis k menjalar j l ke k negaranegaralain(kreditor)

globalfinancialsystemhitbyaseverecreditcrunch(was)triggeredinitiallybythe collapseintheUnitedStatesofthesubprimemortgagemarket IMFSurvey,13October2008

Link: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/NEW101308A.htm 3

Source:BSMResearch

I. Back Ground

a.GlobalCrisis

AnalistOpinion

AccordingJack&SuzyWelch:

Lenders:fortakingadvantageofunqualifiedandvulnerablehomebuyers Homebuyers:forgettingovertheheads WhiteHouse:forlettingbankingregulationsbecometooloose Financeexecutives:forsellingproductstheydidntunderstandwhileenjoyingoutsizedprofits Marktomarketaccounting:foracceleratingdownturn Ratingagencies:formischaracterizingpaper Shortsellinghedgefunds:forbettingondoomsday Thetransformationofinvestmentbanksfromprivatepartnershipsintopubliclytradedcompanies

Source:Jack,SuzyWelch(2008,September25).BusinessWeek Link: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_40/b4102084769835.htm

Sebagian g besaralasanberkaitandengan g aspek p REGULASI,SPEKULASI,&MANAJEMENRISIKO

Source:BSMResearch

I. Back Ground

a.GlobalCrisis

StimulusFactor

Consumerism

CRISIS

Regulation

Greediness (Greedy& Corrupt)

Speculation

Source:BSMResearch

I. Back Ground
TheFedInterest

a.GlobalCrisis

REGULATIONASPECT

GrowthCreditvsIncome

CreditRatiotoGDP

SOURCE:TheWashingtonPost Link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp srv/business/daily/graphics/fedfund_111004.html /bu i e /daily/ a hi /fedfu d 111004 ht l

Kebijakansukubungarendah(sejak2001)memicu pertumbuhankredit(pemerintah,swasta,dan individu).Sementara,pertumbuhanpendapatan tidak

I. Back Ground

a.GlobalCrisis

REGULATIONASPECT

Kreditmacetsubprime mortgagetertinggi

Kreditp perumahanberisikotinggi gg (subprime p mortgage)tumbuhterlalucepat,bersamaandengan tingginyakreditmacetdisektortsb.

I. Back Ground

a.GlobalCrisis

PRACONDITION:SPECULATION
Period 2000-2008 Deposits Grew $ 3,000Bn! Average growth - $375Bn/yr 10.4% CAGR!! Period 1996-2000 Deposits Grew $ 700Bn A Average growth th - $175Bn/yr $175B / 5.17% CAGR

Implies prolific influx of funds into US in last 8 years. Per Analysis, source of funds unknown. We know how it was utilized (sub-prime was one of the cards dealt)

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2007/0507/02banfin.cfm

10

I. Back Ground

a.GlobalCrisis

PRACONDITION:SPECULATION

Sumber:FDIC http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/regional/ro20062q/n a/images/OutlookChart05.gif

PortofolioderivatifbankdiAS PorsiM1menurun

Sumber:http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Components_of_the_United_States_money_supply.svg

Diyakini, Di ki i k kegiatan i t aktivitas kti it spekulasi k l isemakin ki tinggidenganmenurunnyaporsiM1

11

I. Back Ground

a.GlobalCrisis

PRACONDITION:CONSUMERISM

Kreditmacet meningkat Savingmenurun drastis

http://www.fdic.gov/deposit/insurance/risk/2006_02/imgs/Chart24.gif

PersonalsavingwargaAmerikamenurun: Rentan R terhadap h d gejolak j l kharga h Repaymentcapacitymenurun,

12

I. Back Ground

a.GlobalCrisis

PRACONDITION:CONSUMERISM

Kreditmacet meningkat Penyalurankredit bank

Dampakkegagalankreditsubprimemortgagelebih besarkarenabankmenempatkandanadisurat berhargayangmemilikiunderlyingtransactionsampai yangtidak

13 http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/regional/ro20062q/n

Sumber:FDIC

a/images/OutlookChart05.gif

I. Back Ground

a.GlobalCrisis

GREEDY

FDIC(FederalDepositInsuranceCorporation)regardingfailureofFirstStateBank:

Thebankshistoricallystrongearningsperformancehasbeenimpactedby deteriorationintheloanportfolioandrisingoverheadexpenses.Netincomeis overstatedby$500,000duetoaninadequateAllowanceforLoanandLeaseLosses, whichhasnotincreaseddespitesignificantloangrowth.Aftermakingtherequired provision,ReturnonAssets(ROA)declinesto0.87%from1.14%asreportedonthe December31,2004,UBPR.Thisiswellbelowthepeergroupratioof1.26%.

Sumber:http://www.fdic.gov/regulations/resources/directors_college/sfcb/roe.html

(08/03/2005)

LehmanBrothersChairmanandCEORichardFuldJr.made$34millionin2007ofBONUS. Lehman(OTC:LEHMQ)filedforChapter11Bankruptcyprotectionearlierthismonth.Fuldalso soldnearlyahalfbillion$490million fromsellingLEHstock; Note:LehmansAssetEqiv.Rp6.390T

Sumber:http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/09/ceoclawbackpr.html

14

Source:BSMResearch

I. Back Ground European Crisis and Global Economic

b.DampakterhadapIndonesia

TRADE AND COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS Trading and Pricing Primary Financial Sector Commodity

Fundamental Economy

Domestic Policy Respond

I Investor t Sentiment S ti t

Impact to Indonesian
6

I. Back Ground

b.DampakterhadapIndonesia

Slowdown ofglobal growth Decliningcommodity prices Exportdecline

Importremainstrongdueto excessaggregateddemand

Current Cu e taccou account t deficit

1. 2. 3.

FDIweak BOPwilldecline Currencywillbe depreciated

Rupiahakanterdepresiasi

16

I. Back Ground

b.DampakterhadapIndonesia

EuropeanCrisisContributionandIndonesianGlobalBondInvestor

Source:ISEI,AnggitoAbimanyu

I. Back Ground

b.DampakterhadapIndonesia

2011

NamunKomposisiInvestordiPasarModal (Asing&Lokal)TidakTerlaluBerubah

39%
Asing Lokal

2010

61% 37% 63%

Source:ISEI,AnggitoAbimanyu

I. Back Ground

b.DampakterhadapIndonesia

D iki j Demikian jugadiObli Obligasi iR Rupiah.... i h

Source:ISEI,AnggitoAbimanyu